Orbán should stay in Moscow!

  • February 2, 2022
  • István
  • 14 Comments

No, not my words. Orbán’s visit in Russia took a lot of attention already before he went. Unity for Hungary called in the midst of Ukraine crises:

Orbán, don’t go to Moscow! But if he goes, he shouldn’t come home again!

In the three decades since the change of regime, Hungary’s sovereignty has never been attacked as much as last week: Russian President Vladimir Putin called on Hungary to leave NATO. Russia, which is currently considering occupying Ukraine, is asking us to betray our allies, relinquish our sovereignty, and make our country militarily defenceless. After the incapable of calling, the Hungarian Prime Minister has always remained so loud against the allies of Hungary. There is no fight for sovereignty and swordsmen, just a flight to Moscow. It is no coincidence that today the European Parliament, the V4s and our allies are also worried about the meeting, and in this tense situation it is a betrayal to go to Moscow.

Unity for Hungary demands Viktor Orbán to reassure Hungary’s allies roaming right, cancel his visit to Moscow and make it clear: “we won’t be a colony”, Hungary has a place in both the European Union and NATO! A prime minister, who in such a situation silently travels to Moscow, to stumble on the edge of the carpet in the Kremlin, betrays the interests of Hungary and Europe as well. Unity for Hungary demands that the Prime Minister does not go to Moscow and if he does not return home!

András Simonyi, once ambassador in Washington said: “Hungary does not have a foreign policy, Viktor Orbán has a foreign policy. Everyone in Orbán’s government is just a staffer, and this is especially true for foreign policy.” Péter Krekó added: “There isn’t any EU member state doing anything even slightly similar: it’s a systemic abandonment of the EU foreign policy alliance.” No wonder that The Guardian titled “Hungarian PM Orbán to visit ally Putin in Moscow” ►EN.

Orbán on the other side repeatedly pointed out that he goes for getting more cheap gas. Although it is true that Putin made gas delivery already a political question and allows price cuts for countries that are considered serving Russian interests, there remains a main question: Why? The regime press just a few months ago announced proudly that the regime was able to secure an increased amount of gas at favourable prices for the next 15 years. Besides the question why to fix prices for 15 years at times they are very high, has the gas consumption in Hungary went up that much in so little time? At least this winter is not unusual cold.

I think we all know that the gas prices exploded last year, about Hungary’s new 15 year contract with Russia was only said that it would be “at favourable rates,” a price was not revealed. Népszava took KSH data to uncover the data that are a state secret: the new gas price ►HU. For a cubic meter state owned MVM now pays 167 Ft. The spot market price for ad-hoc transactions (no 15 years contract, just here and now or if you prefer: the highest possible price at this moment) is actually 84,32 € / MWh. This results in 265 Ft per cubic meter or that the Hungarian 15-year contract is about 1/3 cheaper than the actual spot market price. In 2014 the consumer price has been frozen to 101 Ft. About the half of the consumer price is gas, the rest for distribution and so on. So the state company makes more than 100 Ft loss for every single cubic meter used in private houses. This means Russia doesn’t contribute to the infamous overhead reduction, we pay with our taxes for the gas price. No wonder that Orbán can’t lower the VAT on chicken carcasses, but limits the retail price only.

Our other dependence on Russia is the construction of the 2 planned nuclear reactors in Paks. Yes, they are still planned only. While the government told us that the groundwork will start soon the minister without portfolio responsible for the enlargement of the Paks power plant János Süli has right now declared that the applications for a construction permit would be submitted in March only ►HU. So to the story of endless delays will be added another delay. Perhaps this way it could become easier for a new government to cancel the entire project.

But there are also positive views about the visit. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Tass ►EN: “We admire Hungary’s independent approach to satisfying its own interests and choosing partners.” At least Orbán and Putin are happy with this strange love-affair.

The meeting should last 2 or 3 hours I read initially. But it took 5 hours until the talks ended. During the following press conference yesterday evening was stated:

“Honestly, I have no plans to leave,” said Orbán, and insured that he decided to win the elections in April – it wasn’t a comment about not leaving from Moscow again.

Putin was proud that Hungary would buy Russian gas below market value based on the contract of last October. Orbán declared that the last permits for Paks II would be issued soon and the construction phase could start. Further Putin agreed in negotiating for an increase of gas delivery, Orbán wants a yearly increase of a billion cubic meters.

According to Putin they discussed the problems of cargo, the need for new passenger flight connections between both countries and the co-operation concerning corona vaccines. Orbán declared that direct flights between Budapest and Yekaterinburg and Kaliningrad would be needed. A joint venture for solving the problems of the exchange of goods should be founded. The single dose Sputnik light should get a Hungarian license soon, Orbán said, while according to Putin production of Sputnik V in Debrecen would not be no problem at political level.

Putin told Orbán about his concerns about NATO and praised the Hungarian-Russian relations in the fields of the pharmaceutical industry, culture and higher education. Putin thanked Orbán for his fruitful work.

Concerning safety NATO Orbán declared that the needs of Russia should be known all over the world, and the answer to it did not meet him. Putin stated that Ukraine would prepare to re-conquer Crimea, which would be sovereign Russian territory. He would want to prohibit Ukraine getting seriously armed for an attack on Russia.

So far the press conference ►HU.

The extreme emphasis of gas deliveries by Orbán surprises me. We have a new 15-year delivery contract since a bit more than 4 months now and it turns out suddenly that we need another 22 % increase? This sounds to me as a form of bad governance. This is a country with a declining population, not a company that unexpectedly got a new huge client. Or is this serving the interests of Putin, who needs the money and gets more chances to deliver gas to Europe through the Balkan states instead of Ukraine, which reduces the profit of Ukraine and enlarges the threat of getting shut off? Or does the MET AG in Swiss Zug with narrow connections to both our regime and Russia need some more business? More about MET can be found here ►DE. Ridiculous is the claim that Hungary would buy Russian gas for 1/5th price of the European rate.

For landing slots or a cargo centre Orbán doesn’t need to travel to Moscow. Orbán’s obsession with vaccines that don’t have EMA permission again is just another attack on the EU and Hungarians, who are limited in their travel through Europe and the world. Not to mention the bad efficiency of Sputnik V against Omicron according to the latest researches. About Paks II Orbán clearly lied, seen the latest delay.

And about the security crisis Russia created during the last months Putin got another stage to tell his story. From the Hungarian point of view I am deeply scared that Orbán called “the world” to give in to Putin, for us giving in would mean to leave NATO. What Orbán named “peace mission” sounds to me as an unconditional surrender. Could a PM commit more treason to his country?

While Hungarian press is either busy in endless praising Orbán or sober reports of facts the international press is full with comments. “Relations between Russia and the West may be at their worst since before the collapse of the Soviet Union, but there were only smiles and bad-old-boy camaraderie on display as Russian President Vladimir Putin and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán met at the Kremlin on Tuesday.” Politico described the situation ►EN.

“Splitting sharply from his NATO allies, Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary said on Tuesday that proposed sanctions against Russia if it takes military action against Ukraine would be “doomed to failure” and that Russian security demands were reasonable.” The New York Times wrote ►EN.

“Vladimir Putin’s dangerous fan club” titled French Les Echos and wrote ►FR: “If Vladimir Putin triumphs in Ukraine, his brutal methods will gain new followers. Land grabbing, military threats, lies and assassinations will be seen as effective techniques to emulate.”

Austrian Wiener Zeitung commented ►DE: “It has become quiet around Viktor Orbán in Europe. Since the rift with the European People’s Party, the Hungarian Prime Minister has been looking for a new political home in the EU and is largely isolated. [….] Russia’s President Vladimir Putin also benefits from the visit. He reminds the European public once again that the EU countries are at odds in their dealings with the Kremlin. [….] Putin and Orbán have had even more in common for years: the “guided democracy” introduced in Russia with formally free elections, in which those in power can hardly be voted out of office, was carefully studied in Budapest.”

German MEP Dennis Radtke (CDU/EPP) posted on twitter ►DE: “Putin can enjoy the many useful idiots every day. His business model of the last few years is currently paying off. Frightening.”

Just to report in full: Orbán decided to return to Hungary.

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Pantanifan
Pantanifan
February 2, 2022 11:33

“The meeting should last 2 or 3 hours I read initially. But it took 5 hours until the talks ended.”

Not surprising I suppose. We need to get clear instructions from the boss in Moscow about how Hungary should continue to pretend to be part of the western alliance in theory, while supporting the “mother country” at every opportunity in practice…

SandF
SandF
February 3, 2022 05:26
Reply to  Pantanifan

Well said: clear instructions from the boss in Moscow

Pantanifan
Pantanifan
February 2, 2022 17:20

According to hvg, it seems like the pro-Putin press is praising Orbán as a great leader. I wonder what our NATO and EU allies make of this?

https://hvg.hu/vilag/20220202_Putyin_Orban_orosz_sajto
(my translation of parts of the text):

“Orbán is a true democrat, the Hungarian PM is motivated by protection of national interests, the West has invented the claim that Russia is threatening Ukraine, and in any case Ukraine is part of Russia’s world – this was how the Russian media reported on the Russian-Hungarian summit”.

Orbán is the real peace campaigner” (by comparison with UK PM Johnson)

Last edited 2 years ago by Pantanifan
Don Kichote
Don Kichote
February 2, 2022 17:23

Orbán should stay in Moscow, at that giant white table that gives Putin the distance he needs from Orban, if he is a virus slinger. SputnikV does not seem to convince Putin.

While Orban kisses Putin’s hand at a safe distance, Germany, brave as it is, promised Ukraine 5,000 steel helmets and Schröder, our former chancellor, was still drooling about having to read the riot act to Ukraine not to Putin. If Schröder goes the next time to Moscow then he should stay “also” there.

… 5000 steel helmets … Putin was certainly shocked 😀 .

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
February 2, 2022 17:56
Reply to  Don Kichote

First of all I share Istvan’s concerns about Orban’s trip to Russia. I watched not all but most of the Oban/Putin press conference via this link internet https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?ref=watch_permalink&v=3086974251620912&t=28 which was the PM’s facebook link. There was a running commentary supporting every claim Putin was making about NATO being the aggressor and President Biden wanting a war with Russia. 

Putin was aggressive against NATO and on the attack, Orban was a bit player in the press conference. I did not hear Orban even once try to defend NATO, all he did was babble about the need to resolve differences and have peace. I am deeply concerned how quickly any invasion of Ukraine would escalate into a tactical nuclear exchange with Russian forces eventually so I don’t disagree with the need to try to minimize the possibility of combat being expressed by Orban. When I was a US Army officer in Germany we assumed we would have to use tactical nuclear weapons to stop Russian armor from overrunning Europe because NATO could not match Russia in conventional warfare which is heavily driven by masses of mechanized Russian infantry and armor. That situation has not changed based on everything I have seen from people who study strategy. Hungary would be a smoking waste land if the worse were to take place.

I have no exact idea what the tactical thinking is on the part of Ukrainian military, I do know from many reports that the Ukraine military seems to be making a presumption of being overwhelmed if a large scale invasion happens and attempting primarily to inflicting massive causalities on any Russians invading. Then moving to a strategy of protracted warfare that could very well involve hit and run attacks from Poland and Romania. I doubt Orban would allow Ukrainian insurgents to operate in Hungary, but this will not spare Hungary if all hell breaks out.

This is where the real danger lies and where it could lead to tactical nuclear exchanges if the Russians cross into NATO nations to attack guerrilla bases. Apparently Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had a very tense discussion about Ukraine being prepared to transition from conventional war against the Russians to a protracted long term war. Zelenskiy apparently did not want to contemplate that very real possibility from descriptions of the read out of that discussion I have seen referenced in the US media. 

When I first showed up in Germany following my service in Vietnam we still had numerous short range missiles with nuclear war heads and even nuclear artillery shells on top of air delivered nuclear weapons. (We also had secret massive nuclear land mines that could be triggered according to what I was told.) I was very early on briefed on the planning for a full scale invasion by the Russians and the planned use of tactical nukes in the defense of Western Europe. I have learned recently that the US 56th Artillery Command, whose base is in Mainz-Kastel, has plans for the rapid deployment of the Dark Eagle weapon, which has been tested but not fully developed yet. US military sources say it can reach 4000 miles per hour at hypersonic speed. (see https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2021/10/07/dark-eagle-has-landed-us-army-finishes-equipping-first-unit-with-hypersonic-capability-minus-the-missiles/ ). Below is one my old uniform patches from those nuclear weapon days that seem to be returning. 

s-l1600.jpg
Brigitta
Brigitta
February 2, 2022 21:51

My husband once showed a russian general around a whole day. This general answered, when asked what weapons the russians feared the most, that the pershing 2 was what kept them at the other side of the curtain.
The russians were totally unimpressed with everything else and thought they would have run over the complete western defense forces.

Brigitta
Brigitta
February 5, 2022 10:08
Reply to  István

The general visited the Netherlands then (I forgot to be clear about that, sorry).
The Russians removed their nuclear arsenal from the Ukraine after that treaty. But I’ve been told, that it doesn’t matter where they are.

Don Kichote
Don Kichote
February 3, 2022 12:24

Putin’s wet dreams of an ancient greatness of Russia have already been shattered in the Chechen war. Orban’s wet dreams are areas in Ukraine where ethnic Hungarians live.

If Putin wants to attack Ukraine what is Putin waiting for? Neither the USA nor Europe are capable of defending Ukraine against Russia at the moment. Therefore, I assume that the 120 000 Russian soldiers on the border with Ukraine serve something else … and not least Putin’s servants like Orban or Erdogan or Lukashenka.

Don Kichote
Don Kichote
February 3, 2022 12:42
Reply to  István

Groundhog Day 🙂 I love that humor.

Misi bacsi
Misi bacsi
February 3, 2022 01:09

Thanks to the 2 Istvans for interesting post and/or comments including the funny/sad cartoon.

Future historians will no doubt find other details about the Hungarian and Russian regimes, but most of us can probably agree that mafia profits and power animate both regimes.

Don Kichote
Don Kichote
February 3, 2022 14:06

An interesting point could be the gas supply from Russia to Orban, if what András Tóth-Czifra writes is true. Did Putin conclude a gas contract with Orban not “Hungary”? Is there anything known.

“… when he [my assumption Putin] said that suppliers will have the last word in April. …” Means the gas contract is not safe if ! Orban loses the election ?