Well I don’t know if Kyiv is going to fall tomorrow, but it is obvious there is a lack of…
Pupils and Teachers
Both pupils and teachers sided yesterday. After the teacher’s strike in January only resulted in an attack to be a leftist campaign action, while in fact a basic-school teacher never in his professional life will be paid as well as an unskilled worker in the warehouses of a retail company from his very 1st day. I had several figures to compare already ►EN. So it doesn’t surprise that many teacher leave the job and hardly anybody takes the effort to study now for 5 years (recently reduced from 6 years) to become teacher. This ridiculous low payment of teachers forms not only a threat to those who are teaching today, but will make this an extincting profession if things won’t be changed radically both regarding payment and ideological limitations. Since Hungarian education is already at least problematic even less education will result in an increasingly chanceless generation to come.
Government made some vague promises for future payments past the elections, but did not make any concrete offers to the teachers. So teachers started a strike yesterday. To make it worse the government limited the right to strike further. After already before the rules determined that children must be supervised at schools during a strike. Now under the pretext of the pandemic the teachers have been ordered to teach as well for half the time. This made teachers at a school to declare strike not for 3 days as planned, but for 6 days instead, while they wouldn’t teach the 1st 3 days at all ►HU.
Already before some teachers employed civil disobedience, since their right to strike was limited too much. They just did not work for an amount of hours, since weeks, within different schools, places, and amount of hours. According to telex during the first month of civil disobedience no teacher has been fired ►HU. Obviously Orbán does not want to escalate this, while we shouldn’t forget that he is no friend of workers unions. In his early days he refused to meet with representatives of the police union with the words that he doesn’t meet with clowns. With the elections on the doorstep the regime does not want more problems.
Yesterday not only teachers demonstrated during their strike, but also pupils held demonstrations in favour of their teachers. In front of parliament building pupils called for treating their teachers well, since they understood that good teachers are their only chance getting a good education and that education is the key to their own future. In opposite to the “peace” march the regime organised a day before Magyar Hang called this the march of the grandchildren ►HU. Quite obviously times are over that the egoism of the regime is the example for the youth. No “me first.” Orbán succeeded to create from teachers and pupils a social unit standing up for each other.
While the regime remained pretty silent in advance the authorities, the school directing Klebelsberg institute and the schools reacted, although not following a single line. Some schools asked the parents to keep the children at home if possible, others organised a “non-teaching work day”, again ordered teachers to show up for work ►HU.
While Unity for Hungary is siding with the teachers for their right to strike and for an adequate payment as well since long, they want a 50 % salary increase to close the huge gap that grew under Orbán, the minister of the prime minister’s office Gulyás yesterday tried to calm the situation. He promised 10 % wage increase for each of next 3 years. Right now 10 % would just be hardly above official inflation and way below the inflation of food prices. But even this comparison sounds better than it is. A significant part of the teachers’ income is not declared wage, but surcharge. This was also the trap of the great increase Orbán announced last year, which sounds so much better than it was. The starting wage for all teachers is as today just below minimum wage! The minimum wage for unskilled and least educated employees, not that one that applies to the better-educated employees. This means Gulyás offered a starting teacher a monthly nets increase of less than 35 € for each of the years 2023 – 2025!
To make it worse Gulyás called the EU to be the culprit. He said that in Brussels would be negotiated about the next 7-years-budget and from that money the teachers’ payment would depend. To put it right: The next 7-years-budget will start in 2028! On January 1st, 2021 the current one started and will last until December 31st, 2027. And teachers have never been paid from the EU budget. Perhaps school buildings can be renovated with EU funds, but definitely not teachers paid. They pay for development of a country, for better infrastructure, but not for the costs running the state. EU blaming again instead of solving the problems the Orbán regime has created through the years ►HU.
”Durván torzult a magyarok ítélőképessége, a fideszesek negyede Ukrajnát hibáztatja a háborúért”
is the Nepszava healine today. Roughly translated it means that a quarter of Fidesz supporters blame Ukraine for the invasion. Clearly they have taken leave of their senses.
Robert it’s possible if only 25% of Fidesz supporters believe Ukraine is responsible for the war and not Russia, that could actually be an improvement.
So the UK’s Guardian today ran an article about Orban and Russia titled “Orbán treads fine line as Hungarian opinion swings against Russia” written by the Guardian’s Jennifer Rankin who is the Guardian’s Brussels correspondent. While for opponents of Orban’s ties to Putin the overall tone of the article was reassuring, yet it had a glaring problem even though the title of the article indicated that Hungarian opinion was swinging against Russia in relationship to its war in Ukraine, the article itself did not reference even one poll of Hungarian attitudes towards this issue.One impressive aspect of Rankin’s article is she referenced this article from the Hungarian media https://www.direkt36.hu/en/ne-ird-meg-semmilyen-formaban-koszi-igy-hallgatja-el-a-kormanynak-kinos-hireket-az-allami-hirugynokseg/ that surprised me actually.
George Lazar posted an article https://hungarianfreepress.com/2022/03/05/orbans-pro-putin-propaganda-is-working-hungarians-blame-zelensky-for-russias-attack/ citing polling data from the admittedly pro-Orban pollsters and think tank Századvég that actually drew a very different conclusion than the title of Jennifer Rankin’s article did. Lazar noted that this poll showed 66% of Hungarians are satisfied with Viktor Orbán’s friendship with Russian President Putin and think that it is advantageous to the country and that 91% of Hungarians oppose sanctions against Putin’s Russia.
Lazar indicates in his article “Hungarian media gives a distorted view of the world. In Budapest most people have access to differing views and foreign media, but the countryside is Orbán’s base and it is kept in the dark. They hear that the West is collapsing, children are indoctrinated with LBTQ propaganda, and millions have sex-change operations.” Now to say the least this is a radically different overall perspective than that presented by Jennifer Rankin in her article.
Telex has indicated in several articles I have read that there is no clear overall swing in Hungarian public opinion against Russia and I think argued pretty wisely that “the question of the coming days and weeks will be whether voters believe the government’s preferred narrative (the opposition would go to war) or whether the opposition’s narrative will prevail (the government is aligned with the Russian aggressors, whereas the opposition stands with the West)”
Part of the complexity of this discussion seems to me to be that Rankin attempts to rely heavily on the ideas of Daniel Hegedüs of the German Marshall Fund who she cited in her article and also cited in an article back in the first week of January (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/02/outsider-peter-marki-zay-from-the-right-backed-by-hungarys-left-to-beat-orban ) Unfortunately it appears that Rankin calls up Daniel Hegedüs to get some quotes but really does not read his writings, really how would she have time since she cranks out so many articles for the Guardian and is clearly a workhorse.
So in Rankin’s article today she notes Hegedüs saying many people had expected much more trouble from Orbán. Instead, he said, “we were able to see an unexpected realignment with the EU and Nato over Russia over the past couple of weeks.” But Hegedüs also wrote an article titled “Why Orbán won’t really change his spots” in this article he states: “Is a genuine U-turn in Hungarian foreign policy unfolding in front of our very own eyes? Could the shockwaves sent by the Russian aggression domesticate Orbán, practically overnight? No. Take a closer look at the country and its foreign policy, and one sees a protracted balancing, not a U-turn.” (https://euobserver.com/opinion/154459 ).
The big problem with journalists like Jennifer Rankin is that they honestly do not comprehend Orban’s “peacock dance.” Edit Zgut & Robert Csehi in an article several years ago said this about Orban’s dance: “Europe’s self-proclaimed strongman (Orban), who always lectures his political opponents about the relevance of values and principles in politics, indeed seems to resort to a cowardly, calculating, a sit-on-the-fence strategy that leaves him the largest room for maneuver.” He is doing it again and a good part, possibly a majority of the Hungarian voting population due to massive propaganda may have joined in the dance themselves now.
The sad truth Istvan is that the three historical strong men of Hungary, Horthy, Kadar and Orban were made in the country’s self image. Hungarians like guys like those three because like them, they are, in the main, unprincipled opportunists.
On CNN yesterday during a discussion of the subject of delivery of supplies to Ukraine they mentioned Poland, Slovakia and Romania as likely transit routes, but not Hungary.
Logically Hitler was in the main an opportunist why not 😀 is only the question who gets the superlative.
Daniel Hegedüs is himself a peacock dancer as a political analyst who supposedly still has a professorship in Budapest and Berlin. I have read his publications in right-wing propaganda papers. His political analyses partly end in biological comparisons, e.g. the reaction of a puffer fish under imminent danger to Orbán’s reactions under “stress”. The one who gives Hegedüs as a source without further ado has disqualified himself. Of course, you can use him as a source if you are right-wing nationalist, but then the inflation does not matter.
I think the very widespread “why bother, it’s all too much anyway” attitude towards voting at elections is one of Fidesz’ biggest assets.
“The big problem with journalists like Jennifer Rankin…”
Therefore my suggestion to all foreign journalists is watching some OV’s 1-Party-State-“public”-Media News [M1 Hirado] with good translations and necessary [independent] explanations of backgrounds of those featured in those “news” items.
After having witnessed these, the journalists should publish articles about that experience and make videos with good subtitles [and backgrounds!] available for all who want to personally watch and understand OV’s “public media news”.
Thanks for the article. With this education system, still asking children to reproduce knowledge as an “evaluation” of their development, and a curriculum where politics decide the content (like fantasy history), and the way it should be taught Hungary is moving hátra, not elöre. As you wrote, destroying the chances for the young Hungarian people in a developing world.
The trick with EU money the regime already did with the increasement of the medical doctor wages as far as I can remember. They called it health care reform, and with that title money from the EU was used to pay salaries directly. This regime never runs out of ideas to cheat. So let us not wonder how they will be able to sell this.
OT
The brazen liar that he is, Orbàn and his propaganda machine are pushing a new issue of “Orban the savior/protector” panel: O1G has taken to wearing a black pilot jacket and riding helicopters surrounded by military officers, repeating ad naseum that Hu is safe and “capable of defending itself even without NATO.”. It is unclear against whom would Hu have to defend itself*, nor what is the purpose of Orbàn’s flying around.
To top this charade he announced that “they will be at the border for the next three days” , suggesting there’s some danger against which he’s taking measures.
This particularly thick bearing in mind that behind the well sounding “Thousands of refugees are being taken care of” there’s little to no contribution by the state and on all reports one can only see Red Cross or Maltese Order facilities and only local council actions are mentioned.
* Orbàn’s Defense Minister stated exactly the opposite ie. that Hungary’s defense is ensured by its NATO membership.
… while Russian-made drones fly unnoticed over Hungary and crash in the neighboring country.
note that in in early 1941 German troops attacked Yugoslavia from Hungarian ground, while the Hungarian government had just signed an Eternal Friendship Treaty with Yugoslavia.
Because of that PM Teleki wrote [in his suicide note]:
“We [Hungary] have violated our word – out of cowardice… The nation feels that we have cast aside its honor. We have stood on the side of the villains… We shall be body snatchers! The most despicable of people. I did not hold you back. I am guilty.”
more details at https://theorangefiles.hu/the-horthy-era-1920-1944-long/
He will come home to mama when the Russians get a bit closer.
The funny thing is, he “inspected” the Hungarian-Rumanian border. But it was by night, so that may be the reason that they missed the Hungarian-Ukraine border.
May be, since so many FIDESZ sheep believe that Ukraine started Putin’s war, Orbán was afraid of getting too close to that aggressive country….
Is Putin preparing for atomic war?
Russian Airforce on March 17, 2022
RSD3 Tupolev Tu-204-300
RSD71 Sukhoi Superjet 100-95B
RSD72 A319-115CJ
RSD73 An-148-100E
RSD74 Ilyushin Il-96-300PU
RSD78 Tupolev Tu-214PU
RSD79 Tupolev Tu-214SR
RSD80 SuperJet 100-95B
RFF7576 Tupolev Tu-154M
RFF9947 Tupolev Tu-154M
Source:
https://twitter.com/GDarkconrad/status/1504374496358187014
In addition,
Rossiya – Special Flight Squadron (59 planes)
March 17, March 16*
RA-61712 Antonov An-148-100EA around Moscow
RA-61716 Antonov An-148-100E Ufa – Moscow – Ufa
RA-73025 Airbus A319-115CJ around Moscow
RA-09090 Dassault Falcon 7X Novosibirsk – Moscow – Novosibirsk *
RA-96014 Ilyushin Il-96-300 Moscow – Ufa *
RA-96017 Ilyushin Il-96-300 Moscow – ???
RA-96019 Ilyushin Il-96-300 around Moscow *
RA-96021 Ilyushin Il-96-300PU around Moscow
RA-89039 Sukhoi Superjet 100-95B Moscow – Tyumen – Moscow
RA-65911 Tupolev Tu-134AK ??? – ???? -???
RA-85084 Tupolev Tu-154M ??? – ???? -???
RA-85843 Tupolev Tu-154 ??? – Vladivostok *
RA-64522 Tupolev Tu-214SUS around Moscow *
RA-64058 Tupolev Tu-204-300 *Sochi – Moscow – ???
RA-64516 Tupolev Tu-214SR Moscow – Omsk – Moscow
RA-64532 Tupolev Tu-214PU Moscow – Novosibirsk – Moscow
RA-64532 Tupolev Tu-214PU Moscow – Tyumen – Ulyanovsk – Moscow *
Source: my research
Please spell out how your brilliant research results support or not the nuclear war preparation theory?
Robert, Russia like the USA has been prepared for nuclear war at both the strategic and tactical level for decades, there is nothing new here. All of these weapons are tested for functionality on a regular secret schedule, in the USA. Even the advent of Hypersonic missiles with nuclear warheads is not really new the projects has been going on for years. Our preparations here in the USA have been documented for many years. One of the newer books on that preparation in the USA is Fred Kaplan’s book “The Bomb: Presidents, Generals, and the Secret History of Nuclear War,” which is a reasonably good book.
The US Army at our War College has for many years taught courses not titled “nuclear war,” but rather “defense strategy.” Essentially these courses teach the basics of nuclear war from the US perspective. Those taking this course sequence can be US Army officers, or select civilians, become part of the US Department of Defense’s Defense Senior Leader Development Program (DSLDP).
One course now currently titled “Space Force Operations” even may discuss in greater detail strategic nuclear warfare going into outer space. Part of the course description states: “The course will examine the space medium as a critical domain in the Department of Defense and the relationships between the National Command Authority (NCA), the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD), and the Joint Staff, along with U.S. Space Command and Service force providers.”
I have little doubt the Russians have a similar programs as do the Chinese.
Both the USA and Russian carry out what is formally called “stockpile stewardship.” This means simply we test every nuclear war head, both tactical and strategic on a regular schedule to make sure they work. Because no new nuclear weapons have supposedly been developed by the United States since 1992, even our youngest weapons are at least 29 years old. Aging nuclear warheads can fail or act unpredictably in a number of ways: the high explosives that condense their fissile material can chemically degrade, their electronic components can suffer from decay, their radioactive plutonium/uranium cores are potentially unreliable, and the isotopes used by thermonuclear weapons may be chemically unstable as well.
Both the USA and Russia, and most likely China have facilities that manufacture additional plutonium pits to replace ones of unknown quality, and finding other methods to increase the lifespan of existing warheads. So Robert in a sense tappanch’s data on strategic bombers used by Russia proves very little in terms of readiness. Russia, the USA, and China are always ready for nuclear war.
Below is an amazing official US Department of Defense photo of part of a test performed on a nuclear warhead’s outer shield that is publicly available. Of course before this is done the internal components are removed.
OT – István, How do you see the Covid-measures issued by Orbán today?
Is a lightening of the media restrictions and the decree-power on the table?
Sorry, the only new covid related news published in the gazette this week has been a donation of vaccines to Vietnam. So I am not aware what today issued decree you are thinking about.
What I had in mind was the “temporary” Covid state of emergency measures, which gave the PM power to legislate without the normal parliamentary procedures.
Eligible voters are relocating in great numbers to Budapest.
(or rather the regime is redistributing the eligible voters on paper)
Number of eligible voters with Hungarian address
including those who will become eligible by reaching 18 by 2022-04-03
2022-01-11
in Budapest 1,280,183
in the countryside of Hungary 6,514,926
2022-02-04
in Budapest 1,278,884
in the countryside of Hungary 6,504,846
2022-03-01
in Budapest 1,281,791
in the countryside of Hungary 6,491,482
2022-03-18
in Budapest 1,290,902
in the countryside of Hungary 6,475,537
How many voters changed their official address from the countryside to Budapest between January 11 and March 18?
Let us say the number is x.
Let us say d is the death rate in the same period
1280183*d + x = 1290902
6514926*d – x = 6475537
Solution
d= 100% – 0.37%,
x= 15,427 voters.
32,777 Gypsy voters are also disenfrachised 50%.
They cannot vote for a Gypsy representative
(the regime blocked their candidate),
but they cannot vote for a political party either.
This is definitely not true! Voting on the nationality lists is an option, not an obligation. It takes registration as minority voter to be able to do so. I for my part although eligible never did so. But it takes just another declaration to vote like the rest of the population. It can be done in person, by mail, through the internet and needs the usual personal details and putting an X on the right place, that’s all. This means in respect of the Gypsy list the regime did not accept and that was not replaced by a list that would have pleased Orbán in time that there will be none of their minority list candidates and the only choice remains to vote on the parties. In 2018 only the German minority representative got enough votes to get into parliament and has proven to be a good voting sheep for Orbán. In 2014 none of the minority representatives was elected.
The number of registered Gypsies has not changed since we learnt that they cannot elect an MP. This means that they are not aware of this situation. They will not de-register from the Gypsy list, therefore they will not be able to cast a vote for party lists.
Those are either blind and deaf or not planning to vote. It was such an outcry that the Roma list failed that I doubt a single one isn’t aware. And being registered once one remains registered, even if one doesn’t want to vote at all. If that number did not change at all (didn’t follow that) this should have different reasons, just because it is no static figure. People receive their voting age, people die, people from what reason ever decide to deregister, while it is pretty clear that they don’t register since January 31st by obvious reasons. Deadline is very close before the elections, so changes are still possible and the deregistrations need to be processed as well. And even if you might argue that registering makes participating in elections more likely you would need an extreme turnout to get with the registered Gypsies a single representative elected in case there would be a nationality list. Principally have all registered minority voters thrown away their list votes in 2014 and all non Germans in 2018. There are not enough for example Bulgarians or Serbs in the country only statistically to elect a minority representative and still they are able to register. And whether all Germans in 2018 would have voted for FIDESZ (which they in the quintessence did) is at least questionable, voting for a nationality list can be counterproductive as well. And don’t forget that the results in the districts are way more important than on the lists to change the majority in parliament. We are talking about dozens of seats that FIDESZ definitely will loose. In fact 32 000 eligible voters are representing on the party list less than a half seat. And since it is very unlikely that the votes would be given to only one party this question raises only if about 16 000 list votes would change the result from 99 : 100 into 100 : 99 seats. Again: 16 000 if all those registered don’t deregister and all go to vote. Both extremely unlikely. At the end you care about a registration that is neither definitive nor regarding the perhaps on that list remaining voters (who doesn’t care and doesn’t intend to vote) of decisive relevance.
Refugees from Ukraine, latest UNHCR numbers.
3.6 million, of which 2.0 million entered Poland, 0.3 million Hungary
So it appears the CIA/NSA estimate of 5 million potential refugees from a war by Russia in the Ukraine made before the invasion was not absurd after all.
Russian bombing + Assad emptied half of Syria. So there can be as many as 20 million refugees if Putin prosecutes the war in western Ukraine until he can claim victory
Cheating with the election ballots sent to Serbia.
https://24.hu/kozelet/2022/03/18/valasztas-2022-szavazas-botrany-vajdasag/
Notification addresses of voters without Hungarian address (a.k.a. mail-in voters)
2022.03.18 [2021.03.21]
Romania: 196 178 [175 813]
Serbia: 68 375 [ 62 382]
Ukraina+Slovakia+Austria: 23 064 [ 22 986]
Hungary: 2 752 [ 2 291]
only e-mail address 149 138 [127 627]
all other countries: 16 804 [ 13 460]
Total: 456 311 [404 559]