CPACK started in Budapest! An illustrious group of right wingers was greeted first by some priests (and rabbis ...) and…
An unexpected Move
Hungarian Roma have not really a say in politics. Orbán has his own Gypsy party called Lungo Drom (long way,) its chairman Flórián Farkas is FIDESZ member as well and since 2002 for the latter in parliament. Farkas is infamous for his corruption, he has set up a program to get Roma in work and directed the money into his own pockets. In the beginning Farkas called the minority to register for the minority list and later to vote on FIDESZ. During the last 2 general elections estimations are that between 80 and 90 % of those who participated voted on the state party and its candidates ►HU.
Only quite a small number registered for the minority list anyway, most who want to vote do so on the party lists. But exactly here we have had a huge scandal. Well in time the minority list was decided on. The state party was not happy that their candidate was not on top. They want minority representatives blindly loyal to Orbán as the German representative has both announced to be and been, the only one ever got into parliament. FIDESZ’ appendix Lungo Drom had to go to court against the democratic decision. At the supreme court, the Kúria, the list was declared legally passed during a regular seating of the legal responsible body, the Országos Roma Önkormányzat ORÖ. Not so the constitutional court. Of course one might think. A new ORÖ gathering was needed and this ended without result, following the orders of the regime and getting to a result that pleased the members seemed impossible. Regarding the very short available time the gathering literally took so long that midnight of the deadline came before an agreement. So there will be no Gypsy minority list and all registered minority list voters have been removed from that list automatically by the national election office, they will be given a ballot for the party lists instead.
According to the 2011 census 315 583 respondents declared to be a Rom, while this declaration has no consequences at all. One can decide about the identity freely, I could decide to belong to the Greek minority, because I enjoyed a vacation in Greece so much. Or that I am Magyar, because I feel more connected to Hungary than to my German heritage. Only rule is a personal decision, which is only given in the census anonymously, Hungary does not record anything in official documents! I personally know a village that has according to the census way above 90 % Hungarians and a very few Croatians and Germans. When walking through the streets one could be surprised about the dark skin of so many inhabitants. Some say that the number of Gypsies could be 3 times bigger than declared in the census. And about discrimination it is not relevant how a self-identification is, but how the name sounds or the face looks like.
Factually nothing has been changed in the daily lives of the Roma since Orbán is in power. Every Hungarian is aware of the discrimination in all aspects of life, even those who are happy with discriminating. And in such a situation the parliament advisor Félix Farkas (not to be confused with Flórián Farkas) declared “…. it is not true either that the Roma community continues to face widespread discrimination and exclusion, unemployment, and is subject to housing and educational segregation.” These words were his official reaction onto the Sargentini report and the facts mentioned about Roma therein. Despite all this the approach of Roma officials remained the same in the approaching 2018 elections: Vote for FIDESZ!
And yesterday happened what I did not expect. ORÖ called for voting for Unity for Hungary ►HU! Gypsies should vote free and for freedom on 3rd of April ORÖ wrote. They explain: “the government of the last 12 years has proven that those living in the lower third of society are doomed to slavery and to humiliation and to misery. However, the choice allows the system of national theft to be replaced by the system of national ascension,” referring to the slogan of Unity for Hungary only upwards. With the opposition, it would be possible to build a happier, more successful, more effective Hungary.
We respectfully ask both our Roma and non-Roma compatriots to end the most corrupt government of the last thousand years by supporting the opposition list!
A personal observation is that Roma more often ask for advice than ethnic Hungarians do. While asking experts can be a good thing, while the UFO expert of M1 answering on questions concerning foreign policy shows just too clear that asking the wrong person ends in a quite bad result. Now in the election there has to be distinguished between information and propaganda as well. Pointing out where propaganda and personal experience are heavily conflicting could result in a surprising effect.
As I am not part of any Catholic denomination or doctrine, there is no way I can relate to whatever…
Since Melania and Donald formally met with the Pope I suspect her transgressions may also have been forgiven.
Melania Trump is a Slovenian Catholic, but it is unclear if she attends mass at any parish. It is clear…
But wait, Donald Trump’s wife Melania hosted a closed-door fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago not long ago for the Log Cabin Republicans,…
So does this mean there will be one less representative in Parliament or will the seat reserved for the Roma/Gypsy minority be replaced by an extra representative through the party lists?
“German” Fidesz seat = 1 fixed seat
Romanian+Serbian+Ukrainian Fidesz party list seats = estimated 5 seats.
Competitive party list seats = 87, which will be divided about 50% for Fidesz and 50% for the opposition.
In order for the opposition to win the election, they have to secure at least 57 electoral districts out of 106.
57+43 = 100 > 99= 49+44+5+1
So in other words, Fidesz have awarded themselves 6 seats before the elections start?
But am I right that in the past they also awarded themselves a seat in representation of the Gypsy minority (i.e. Farkas)?
You are wrong.
Ethnic seats.
2014 election: 0
2018 election: 1 (Fidesz German)
2022 election: almost surely 1 (Fidesz German)
without the Fidesz machinations, there would have been 2 ethnic seats in 2022:
1 Fidesz German and 1 opposition Gypsy.
By the Fidesz electoral law,
(votes for 1 party list seat)
= 4* (votes for 1 ethnic seat)
Pantanifan, generally you are about right with your 1st part. Foreign voters could have enough votes for 4 or 5 seats. It depends on factual total turnout, based on the grand totals of party list votes within Hungary and abroad the seats will be calculated. In this case every vote counts the same (in opposite to the districts, which are highly different in number of voters.) In the past those votes from Trianon Hungarians were for 90 + % for FIDESZ. The good chance for the German minority seat is factual another FIDESZ seat, Ritter even said that he will vote with FIDESZ. As minority representative he has full voting rights as every other MP and can speak on behalf of his minority.
Flórian Farkas got MP on a FIDESZ ticket, not on a minority list ticket. He was ordinary FIDESZ MP, not even in function of representing his minority.
But Orbán wanted that the ORÖ put the other Farkas, Félix, on the minority list, but the ORÖ decided for a candidate that was regarded as not blindly loyal to Orbán. Such a minority representative was unwanted and prohibited through the constitutional court. If there is no minority representative elected to parliament the not represented minority organisation can send a kind of advisor into parliament. ORÖ sent Félix Farkas twice. He may speak to parliament on behalf of the minority, but has no voting rights. Orbán wanted him as a 2nd loyal minority representative, but since the responsible body did not choose the desired candidate they were prohibited from participation.
According to the estimate of https://taktikaiszavazas.hu/,
opposition < Fidesz,
33+44 = 77 < 122 = 73 + 48 + 1, i.e.
the opposition can win the popular vote inside Hungary,
but Fidesz will win the election because of the gerrymandered districts and the Romanian+Serbian+Ukrainian votes.
As of March 22, 2022:
Pest county, 5th electoral district: 97,601 eligible voters for one seat.
Tolna county, 2nd electoral district: 58,758 eligible voters for one seat.
Let me remind you that gerrymandering can win an election against the popular will even if each electoral district had equal number of voters
(which is obviously not the case in Hungary)
Here is a solution to create fair districts:
(Of course incumbent politicians would hate to put this or similarly fair algorithms into the electoral law)
“Balanced power diagrams for redistricting”
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.03358.pdf
I know these are not the 2018 elections. But in 48 districts the candidates of the opposition got more votes than FIDESZ got. In 47 FIDESZ got a majority. The rest were very close with a tiny plurality of FIDESZ over an arithmetic majority of all opposition candidates together. I can’t believe that in so many more districts would be clear FIDESZ majorities over the united opposition candidate. Compared to 2018 the people are less pleased today. Completely in opposite tot this according to those data 64 districts would have a FIDESZ majority, 17 more than 4 years ago! Taking into the account that there is a huge part of the population refusing to give an answer who they will vote on and that the large polling institutes including Medián, whereon these data are based, use huge error margins we only know one thing for sure: Everything can happen, with 3% difference in each direction 2/3 majorities in parliament are possible – for both!
The minority lists are concurring with the party lists, there are nor reserved seats for minorities. The number of MPs getting in by lists is always the same, 93. Right now there are 92 in parliament on party list tickets and 1 from the minority lists, the German representative I mentioned. Minority lists are privileged, no 5 – 10 -15 % threshold as for single party, joint lists of 2 or more parties and the number of votes needed is reduced compared to the party lists (both floating, depending on turnout of course.)
In theory 5 minorities have according to the census enough members to send a representative to parliament, the other 8 have not enough members, although participating. But if you register to the Serb list you only can vote for a Serb candidate. With 10 038 Serbs in the country it is impossible to get into parliament, but only 651 are registered to vote on the minority list. If they don’t de-register they can vote on the district candidate and their minority list, but on no party list. Even 10 038 votes wouldn’t be enough to get a minority member into parliament. With 26 477 votes the German was elected in 2018, the elections of 2014 there were only 11 415 votes on the German list and they failed. The Roma list got 4 048 votes in 2014 and 5 703 in 2018, not enough of course. The other lists got even less, the Bulgarian list in 2014 nationwide got the least, 74 votes! Only the German list makes again a chance, for the rest the number of registered voters is already way too low, 2nd now is the Croatian list with 2 318 voters and even if all registered Croats go and cast their vote for their minority list it would just be a fraction of needed votes. Least active registrations has again the Bulgarian list with 221 voters.
Flórián Farkas got in for FIDESZ (not running again) and not through the minority list. As the 3 Roma candidates on safe places on the Unity list will. Félix Farkas never was MP, he had a special role as a kind of adviser for Roma minority questions.
“Only the German list makes again a chance”. No.
The Gypsy candidate would have made it too – but the regime disqualified him because he would have been independent.
As of March 25 [January 11], eligible
Gypsy (Roma) voters: 32,716 [33,107]
German voters 32,684 [32,068]
Wrong! Could have made a chance in case of not being prohibited is no chance. So if we don’t ignore an already final decision there is only a chance for the German candidate.
“So there will be no Gypsy minority list and all registered minority list voters have been removed from that list automatically by the national election office, they will be given a ballot for the party lists instead.”
They are removed here
https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2022/valasztasi-informaciok/valasztopolgarok-szama
But they are NOT removed here:
https://www.valasztas.hu/nemzetisegi-nevjegyzeki-nyilvantartas
As of today, 32716 Gypsy voters cannot cast their party list votes according to this official website.
I would be surprised if the national election office would deliver coherent numbers once. Pure from the logic is the changed set of data newer than the unchanged. And the unchanged set is adding all numbers processed by the local committees, the changed one reflecting the central administration. But please read the statement Balázs Vizi gave about the legal need to remove the nationality list voters from registration in the link above as well.
Your conclusion is based on older data only, ignoring the newer ones, further you don’t take into the account the communication lines, and it’s obviously against the legal situation.
Link #1:
https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2022/valasztasi-informaciok/valasztopolgarok-szama
(updated twice a day – at 9 AM and at 9 PM)
Link #2:
https://www.valasztas.hu/nemzetisegi-nevjegyzeki-nyilvantartas
(updated once a day, around 8 AM – backdated 1 day)
2022.03.17:
Link #1: 32,780
Link #2: 32,775
2022.03.20:
Link #1: 0
Link #2: 32,765
2022.03.25:
Link #1: 0
Link #2: 32,716
2022.03.26:
Link #1: 0
Link #2: to be published on 03.27. It will NOT be zero.
The citizens in the “Roma” list will have to demand their removal by March 31 (in mail) or by April 1 (on-line).
Very few will do so and I expect them not to be able to cast their party list vote on election day.
Numbers are fine to illustrate a development, but don’t help at all if you don’t know the background. We have seen a major change in the national database, this is the NEW approach from the central administration! The helyi választási bizottság is legally responsible – and needs to gather before such a change can be done! We have an obligation to automatic change (link provided) and obviously this started to be processed, the national number anticipated! If this did not happen at all you might be right, since it has been done you are wrong. If you find a difference in numbers you should try to find out where this comes from.
I know our host does not want Russian links on the blog so I will honor that. Today the Russians ran an article in English titled “Hungary responds to Zelensky’s appeal for support.” The article also appears in Russian language publications today. Effectively the article says pretty clearly Orban is Putin’s guy and has told NATO to go to hell on many things. Of course the article does not mention the NATO troops being stationed in Hungary. I hope team MZP has read this article and use it as part of their ammunition leading into the elections.
I would bet Orban is actually very angry at the Russians for this article because it really did not try to thank Orban for being a man of peace, which is his preferred theme. But rather as their guy and they also ran a separate article documenting how dependent Hungary was on Russian oil actually quoting Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto. Really the Russians seem to enjoy having the Hungarian government crawl to them for resources.
Serbia and NATO member Hungary are considered part of the Russian camp, while neutral Austria is not.
The flight of a military plane from Turkey to Poland on March 25.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOw0qTJXIAAARuL?format=jpg
I also wasted some time this morning trying to figure how Fidesz controlled media was going to report on yesterday’s Russian press conference by Colonel General Sergey Rudskoy who stated Russian forces had reached their objectives for the first leg of its military assault, adding that this would allow it to give its full attention to the Donbass region. Col.-Gen. Sergei Rudskoy; was commander of Russian forces in Syria from at least some time in March 2019 until April 10, 2019 and has been identified by Human rights watch as a possible war criminal for the Russian attacks in Idlib offensive that killed at least 1,600 civilians as documented by that organization.
Really there was not as yet been a Fidesz line on this press conference, which was interesting to me. Telex ran a very good balanced article about this Russian press conference which can be read here https://telex.hu/kulfold/2022/03/26/orosz-ukran-haboru-oroszorszag-ukrajna-elemzes .
But what is remarkable was the major US media reaction to this press conference, in particular this spin – Putin is looking for a way out of this losing war and now really no longer wants to take over all of Ukraine removing the existing government. In my opinion the mass media in the USA both on the right and the left desperately want an end to the war and is grasping at anything that moves in that direction.
Even in the US Army Psychological Operations are defined and there is actually a formal officer level position called PSYOPS officer (code 37A). This area is defined in the US Army as follows “A PSYOPS Officer conducts operations to convey selected information and indicators to foreign audiences. The goal is to influence the emotions, motives, objective reasoning, decision-making abilities and ultimately the behavior of foreign governments, organizations, groups, and individuals.”
The Russian Federation has a powerful force of psychological operations (PsO) organization and the US media largely was quickly taken in by this when attempting to report on the Russian press conference. The Russians four formal and identified military PsO units Separate detachment of psychological operations Western Military District (in / h 03126) Sertolovo-2, Leningrad region.
Overall the general management of Russian PsO units appears to be carried out by military unit 54777 (located in Moscow). This assumption is supported by the fact that this was the number of the Special Propaganda Department of the Main Political Directorate of the Soviet Army in the 1970s and 1980s. The Russians did not even change the number of the military unit, from which it can be reasonably concluded that this unit remained the governing body of the PsO units.
It is very likely that the Russian Centers for Foreign Military Information and Communication (CFMIC) units are analyzing all western media to gage the impact of the Russian press conference for its impact on the western media and public still today. Indeed they may even be reading this post.
Two missiles hit the western Ukrainian city of Lviv on Saturday afternoon local time, local authorities stated. Five people were injured. The region’s head asked the citizens to remain in their shelters until more information becomes available. So much for the latest Russian press conference and PSYOPS effort.
Even around Kiev today:
Northwest: Russian ground attack was repulsed in Irpin.
Northeast: Russians occupied Slavutich town.
East: Russians shelled Brovary, 3 civilians are dead.
By the way, the Russian troops are frequently nicknamed as Rascists (Рашисти), an obvious fusion of Russian and Fascist.
Spellings of vowels.
Ukrainian vs Russian
И = Ы = i as in sink
І = И = i as in feet (but can be short)
Ї = И = yi (two dots on the i)
Russian И is i in the beginning of a word, yi elsewhere.
Ukrainian two-dotted Ї is yi, one-dotted I is i.
Е = Э = e as in get
Є = Е = ye
David Baer from Texas Lutheran University who often invited our late host Eva to guest lectures on Hungarian politics https://hdavidbaer.com/ has an article that I suspect many readers of this blog will not like at all. It’s title is “Expect a Viktor Orbán Win Next Month.”
Bottom line of the essay is the existing election system is too stacked in favor of Orban for the opposition to win. It is written for a US audience. Professor Baer speculates on Hungary’s future following an Orban victory and he does not apparently consider the possibility that Orban will move to an even more authoritarian structure similar to Putin’s Russia that I personally fear.
@István (Chicago), thank you for the link !
https://www.thebulwark.com/expect-a-viktor-orban-win-next-month-in-hungary-election/
Horrible!
But that would cut off Orbanistan from EU money …
When you see how politicians are being investigated and sometimes indicted in neighbouring countries, Orbán knows all too well that a loss next week would mean prison time for him and his ilk as the opposition would launch investigations against all corrupt Fidesz politicians and join EPPO.
2018 election
Individual district votes
Fidesz = 2,636,201
Today’s 6 party opposition = 2,693,829
= 1276840+622458+312731+348176+75033+58591
Party list votes (voters with Hungarian address only)
Fidesz = 2,607,990
= 2824551-216561
Fidesz with the ethnic German vote = 2,634,467
= 2607990+26477
Today’s 6 party opposition = 2,693,520
= (1092806+682701+404429+308161+175229+37562) – (2082+2055+1247+1004+669+311) = 2700888 – 7368
So in both ballots, Fidesz received less votes than today’s opposition alliance.
Just a short while ago President Biden gave a very tough speech in Poland. In it he called for the removal of Putin from power in Russia. Really just a few minutes later a spokesperson back in Washington DC said President Biden was not trying to promote a coup in Russia, because many who watched his speech thought he was.
I too believe Biden was inviting a coup in Russia and I say rightly so. Haven’t the mothers and fathers of Russia seen enough of their own children killed in Putin’s insane war, haven’t their own children been turned into killers of the innocent.
It should also be noted that Biden used the Hungarian revolution of 1956 as part of the legacy of the fight for freedom now in Ukraine. Orban and his fellow traitors in Fidesz must have been cringing when they heard that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=brIm2OmxuuM
How very depressing. Biden says one thing in Poland and Washington says the opposite. Who is in charge?
If Hungary does not turf out Orban there will be a major NATO crises.
This election is the last chance for Hungarians to show they are not what unfortunately I believe them to be. Spineless opportunists who are too stupid to know where their best interests lie.
The sad fact is that Russia as of now must be confronted at any price and if it does not conform it must be brought to the same fate as Hitler and the Third Reich. Without it we lose our freedom and our children’s future. We must fight to defeat Russia now. At virtually any cost. The alternative is a worse catastrophe. We must put all resources in to help Ukraine at whatever the risk. This is not just a local war which we can live with if Russia wins.
And Orban should go the same way.
This opinion piece agrees Robert https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/26/wanted-russian-revolution-to-topple-tyrant-putin-internal-applicants-welcome A coup of even the Russian kleptocracy to dispose the madman Putin is an advancement.
The one thing that we have to avoid is a nuclear war, something even the greedy Russian kleptocracy would rather not have, I suspect many in the Hungarian kleptocracy would prefer not to see a nuclear war either. Orban has to go to one way or the other too, he is part of the disease as are some Trump supporting admirers of Putin over here in the USA.