Tappanch, thanks! Could you calculate and tell us what this would mean for Hungary's representation in the European Parliament?
Victorious Orbán
No, I am not talking about the elections we will have today in a week, but about the messages he brought home from Brussels this week. From the same 2 days the European Parliament called him guilty in feeding his oligarchs instead of developing our country, when Dobrev called him an illiberal mini Putin in parliament, when he had to take NATO troops against his earlier refusal ►EN. The same 2 days Orbán did not veto anything, but agreed with every measure taken. At home the mini Putin was the tail who was not only wagging a dog, but 2 dogs the same time, EU and NATO.
NATO decided exactly what Orbán wanted, no matter what the other members pressured him to do (or not.) Orbán succeeded that the airspace above Ukraine will not be declared no fly zone. This must have been a terrible hard fight, since this was neither planned nor any NATO member state wanted. Orbán succeeded that no battle groups will be sent to the Ukrainian ground. There was only a suggestion from Poland to send peacekeepers, which was not sustained. Nobody wanted to send NATO soldiers into combat, but Orbán succeeded in the others not to change their mind! And of course Orbán was victorious in refusing the NATO order to deliver weapons to Ukraine. It shouldn’t be a surprise that this wasn’t planned to become an obligation either, although many NATO members decided to do so. He even was excessively proud that no weapons would be delivered over Hungarian ground to Ukraine. Not such a huge problem for the other countries, since our short border offers not too many options to cross and the topography within Ukraine would force transports on a very few roads or tracks. Ideal targets for an attack. The long border with Poland without a mountain range on one side allows constantly varying the point to enter Ukraine and to transport further. Again the regime is so terrible proud on the ruler that they sent an email to everybody registered for corona vaccination to announce that Orbán succeeded in prohibiting everything what never has been planned.
And of course EU did bend to Orbán’s will. Money will arrive, whatever Unity for Hungary said. Indeed the opposition is campaigning with the fact that the most extensive package ever, the RRF, is blocked and cohesion funds are endangered by Orbán’s corruption and only a new government will make the needed steps towards the rule of law to release them. Yes, as reported before it is only the money from REACT-EU and not from RRF plan, money already allocated in December 2020 under the not that strict rules of the 2014 – 2020 budget period, but it was sold to the public as if a simple letter Orbán wrote to the commission would have released all funds. A coincidence that also could have been planned for better propaganda, since the entitlement was known and the commission was thought not to respond before the elections to the announcement of Orbán.
And of course Orbán succeeded to keep Russian gas and oil flowing. The EU did not ban purchase from Putin. In opposite to his unbelievable success in having the same opinion as all the other members in NATO here some EU members wanted ending energy purchase from Russia, however a minority. Again victorious Viktor knew already in advance that such a step would not be taken, but sold it as being prohibited only by him. Balázs Orbán, vice minister under the minister leading the PM office and political director of the ruling Orbán (not family of each other BTW) has declared this week that it would take decades to get away from Russian energy ►HU. Germany, importing in quantities more Russian energy than any other EU member state, including the majority of its gas purchases coming from Russia, has already announced that the import of Russian coal and oil will be stopped during this year, independence from import of Russian gas would be archived within 2 years ►EN. Besides Hungary only 4 EU members import more than 75 % of gas from Russia, among them only the Czech Republic is a bit more populous than Hungary, the rest, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Latvia are even smaller. Germany, Poland and Finland complete the club depending for more than 50 % on Russian gas within EU. Lativa is only importing gas from Russia and besides a significant share in renewable electricity gas is hugely used for production of electricity as well. And this country calls intensively for an embargo against Russia ►DE.
It is not surprising that Volodymyr Zelensky is calling for everything Orbán “prohibited,” for a no fly zone, for delivering more weapons, and for banning energy import from Russia. It is no surprise that he is advocating the interests of Ukraine, whether the West is willing to fulfil these wishes or not, it is his duty to demand what he thinks being good for his country. But it is a surprise – at least to me – who is the new enemy Orbán wants to fight at: The president of Ukraine! It started when Gyula Budai accused him to meddle into the Hungarian elections on the side of Unity for Hungary. Sure, in Ukraine everybody has only one concern: The Hungarian elections! But 444 had drawn my attention ►HU that the regime press now has declared that Zelensky is attacking Hungary. First Russia, now Hungary?
We all know that the 2-tailed dog party wants to be funny, what not always is a success, especially not when they are fighting against those who want Hungary to become a democratic state again. Now we have a party of involuntary comedy, FIDESZ the 2-dogged tail party.
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Eligible voters with Hungarian address voting outside Hungary (“Külképviseleti”)
Total 65,692
Germany 14,522 = 2690+1962+4661+1477+3732
UK 11,116 = 1196+8159+1761
Switzerland 3,522 = 2997+525
Netherlands 3,441
US 2,871 = 289+183+387+314+986+295+417
Spain 2,117 = 991+545+581
Belgium 2,070
France 1,986 = 325+1335+326
Denmark 1,690
Ireland 1,351
Italy 1,308 = 600+708
Sweden 1,136
Canada 799
Romania 3,079 = 109+2156+814
Austria 3,002 = 2169+833
Ukraine 1,129 = 839+8+282
Serbia 1,129 = 98+1031
Croatia 182 = 31+151
Slovenia 164 = 19+145
Slovakia 113 = 4+17+92
Eligible voters without Hungarian address (“mail-in”)
Total 456,062
Notification address
Romania 196.137
e-mail 149,028
Serbia 68,365
Ukraine+Austria+ Slovakia 22,996
Hungary 2,739
Croatia 450
Slovenia 289
Germany 5,174
US 1,799
Canada 1,346
UK 1,171
Switzerland 1,080
Australia 803
Sweden 6989
Italy 464
France 454
Israel 398
Spain 215
Dear István,
Is it allowed to share your post on facebook?
Yes, of course!
Basically it is true that Orban fully knew the great battle for peace that supposedly Orban won at the NATO emergency summit never happened. It was well known that the peace keeping troop deployment into Ukraine was not going to happen and a no fly zone would not be implemented. The United States opposed both of these proposals that were never formalized at the summit in any way as far as I can tell and the USA is economically carrying the fiscal weight for most of the war efforts being exerted by Ukraine so the USA is effectively hegemonic in this context due to the early default of the EU’s leading nations.
I think when we look back at where Orban is at on his relationship with Russia, we all need to step back and look at the fall out with Orban’s leading oligarch Lajos Simicska. Eva our former host posted several times about the purge of Simicska by Orban and in 2015 she posted Lajos Simicska’s revelations about Viktor Orbán’s alleged involvement in the communist state security apparatus in 1981-1982. Eva looked back on this split several times after it was done, once in a post on January 14, 2019 where she wrote this “From 2011 on, he sensed that his influence over political matters was gradually being curtailed as Viktor Orbán began demanding a free hand in Simicska’s media enterprises. Whether Simicska, a fierce anti-communist, harboring antagonistic feelings toward Russia, had a serious disagreement, on moral grounds, with Orbán over his new pro-Russian foreign policy and the building of Paks II Nuclear Plan on a Russian loan or whether Simicska was offended by the exclusion of his construction company from the Paks project, we don’t know for sure. Perhaps both considerations played a part in his decision to break with his old friend.” In some respects Eva adopted a position similar to the conclusions in this article https://444.hu/2019/01/13/feltarul-simicska-bukasanak-titkos-tortenete an article she cited in her post.
Given where Orban is now at, effectively now attacking Ukraine for trying to push little Hungary into a big war by transferring arms in particular we can see that the KGB master spy Putin may have something on Orban. I suspect that Lajos Simicska’s revelations about Viktor Orbán’s alleged involvement in the communist state security apparatus are true and actually may have continued for a good while beyond 1982. Orban not being a stupid man jumped on the pro-western train and turned against Moscow to some degree calling for the withdrawal of all Russian troops from Hungary in 1989, Orban, in a speech to several hundred thousand people on Budapest’s Heroes’ Square, there is probably little doubt all of this was noted by the KGB and Putin sitting in Germany watching his world collapse.
Putin himself admits near the end in December of 1989 that he and his KGB colleagues frantically burned evidence of their intelligence work. “I personally burned a huge amount of material,” Putin recalled in First Person. “We burned so much stuff that the furnace burst.” I am personally convinced that among what was burned were memos relating to Orban and his turn from being a Russian operative to an anti-communist hero. But did Putin later find copies in Moscow and extract them for safe keeping to be used when needed? I suspect so, and Orban is Putin’s prisoner to some degree as is Hungarian foreign policy right now. I also think Orban understands the embedded fear that exists in Hungary of Russian brutality extending from the Battle of Budapest to 1956 and is trying to utilize it in his fake peace campaign. We need to add to this fear the stories I was told as a child by Hungarian refugees to the USA of the people shipped off to die in Russia and the obsessive fear that existed in the Hungarian refugee community of communist Russian controlled agents lurking everywhere. I discovered that same fear existed in my extended family in Esztergom and in the Catholic Church after 1989 when relatives would actually discuss it. That fear even appeared as an underlying theme in Péter Bacsó’s film “The Witness” or in the archival film Az ügynök élete (2004) about the informant system in Hungary.
It is maybe some sort of a collective PTSD that Orban is playing on with his “peace campaign.”
Just 3 weeks before the invasion started O and P met.
Coincidence or???
Yes, one way to look at it is he was called in for a meeting by by Putin who reminded him of this situation and what could happen to him if he did not play the role he had to play.
Hitler used that tactic with the Western European countries he planned to invade in 1940, giving them time to discuss cooperation over anihilation, knowing fully that they werent prepared for an attack/invasion with such short notice.
Of course, there was no broad defense alliance back then – but he underestimated the resilience and social power of the Westerners.
If Putin wants to play “war chess” with the rest of Europe, he will get qualified resistance.
In an interview 2015 with the political blog mandiner.hu, Lajos Simicska revealed that he suspects Orbán of having been an unofficial informant for the secret service during the Kádár period. Simicska’s story takes place at the time when both were doing their military service together before they studied law together at ELTE. It is said that Orban had files on Simicska that were critical of the regime. When he asked Orbán about this, Orbán admitted that he had to prepare reports on him, but that they could arrange them together so that he would not suffer any disadvantages.
In this context, it is also interesting to note that the current speaker of parliament, Kövér, was minister without portfolio in charge of the secret services in 1998 and may have been entrusted with the task of cleaning up the files for Orbán.
Debates about the Stasi past of politicians (such as Fidesz “politician” who had a political career before the fall of communism, like Sándor Pintér) can still be conducted in Hungary almost exclusively on the basis of speculation, since both the MSZP and Fidesz have so far consistently prevented general access to the files.
Ergo, no matter how much of an overview one wants to get without files or evidence or proof, the informer activity remains only a probability. Earlier I read somewhere that the father of Anikó Lévai allegedly worked for the secret service but can not find at all on the net about it. Anyway, Trump could have made the same experience with Putin (blackmail) as Orban because they act against Putin the same.
Whilst what you write has a very large measure off plausibility it is nothing more than speculation. In 1980/81 Orban was. 17/18 years of age. Whilst his KGB involvement is almost a certainty since virtually everybody within the political scene had some KGB connections it would be difficult from a distance of about 40 years to get an accurate or reliable picture. I don’t therefore think that the “truth”. or Orban’s fear of the sinister “truth” being disclosed has much to do with this Master and servant relationship. It is much more sinister what the Putin team might invent. Or, even more significantly what they might do to hurt his family, wealth and friends. They know how Orban hides his stolen wealth. He is hugely vulnerable to blackmail and much more so because of the more recent times than his youthful connections. The old stuff is easy to deny and documents demonstrated as forged. The recent stuff is the real killer.
And there are many other figures in the West who are also Putin assets. But Orban is very valuable to him as we have seen.
Well there are a package of potential nightmares from Putin’s knowledge of Orban, they include his history with the old Kadar government’s security system and they include money he had stashed internationally using many of the same spots used by Putin’s oligarchs. In the case of Panama we know some of the banks used in offshore schemes were set up by the CIA itself following our invasion of the country, so effectively many useful things were know for years about Putin’s inner circle. Both Orban and Putin use others to hold their ill gotten gains as has been discussed in many places.
The amazing thing is Lajos Simicska did not get killed, he indicated he thought he might be killed to the Hungarian media. Very possibly he threatened some of his own blackmailing of Orban to stay alive and was allowed to at least get some money for his media holdings. The CIA could also be blackmailing Orban too, he lives a dangerous life that is for sure.
General Noriega we were sent to get rid of in Panama had been on the CIA payroll for years starting in the 1950s. Really it was not until that information appeared in the US Congressional record that I believed it. I hate conspiracy theories, probably I hate even more that some of them turn out to be true.
Well, all this is very speculative. But I read an article recently reminding that it was a journey of Simicska to Russia, just before Orbán changed course to become a Putyin pinci. And long ago there was a speculation of Orbán involved in highly illegal financial transactions Putin is not only aware about. There are a lot of things not fitting into a normal, logical way of conducting politics or business. Of course the decision of Unity for Hungary to open the communist agent files spread fear, but it is obvious that there are more things hidden.
In 1986 Spring a group of 19 staff and students at ELTE were invited to visit the University of Amsterdam. According to an article in Egyetemi Lapok ELTE, next to tourists sites, Dutch footbal [=soccer] seemed to be one of major interests of the visitors. Here’s mentioned names of those Hungarian visitors: Iványi Antal, Szókán Gyula, Sándor Antal, Szabó Dénes, Noszál Béla, Frőss Tamás, Dénes Tamás, Máté János, Dénes András, Nagy Andor, Orbán Viktor and Kövér Szilárd.
source: “Tizenkilencen a tulipánok országában” [“with 19 in the land of tulips”] – https://adtplus.arcanum.hu/hu/view/EgyetemiLapok_1986/?pg=77 [without arcanum subscription, the text can be checked with “view source” and simply search for Orbán]
So, yes yes Hungary’s current myghti lidur ‘imselluf was during communist times “allowed” to visit “the West”.
My questions:
–if anything at all, what could this indicate?
–does anybody know any of the others of that group?
Dénes Tamás and Dénes András are twins and both sports journalists, I think Tamás works on nemzeti sport, the daily sports paper
I think Orbán’s so called strategy is another example of his well known crude and short-sighted opportunism, or vulture mentality if you like. Again, he demonstrates nothing but a knack for stirring up trouble. This time between Hungarian Ukrainians and Ukrainan loyalists
I can’t think of any qualified persons in his chambers who would advise that stance, because the outcome is unpredictable within a wide margin – at best, it might give a few bones or fallen fruits, but at the same time it marginalizes him even more than his current position indicates.
It will be more than difficult to convince the active players’ leaders in the NATO councils that his government and forces could be trusted with anything representative, unless the HU troops shine in the current “Cold Response” exercise, and in the EU he is by now effectively isolated from discussions.
It’s a solitary “Hungary for Hungarians only” place in Hope Alley.
In terms of Russia, Hungarians need to put into context the attack President Biden has come under from his own State Department as is obvious from this article https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/26/biden-putin-regime-change/ . So far the retired spooks (CIA) have largely remained silent, when they speak what they say is usually cleared because they have life time obligations relating to secret stuff under law. That was made obvious by in 2013, when the US Justice Department successfully prosecuted former CIA officer John Kiriakou for confirmed the name of an officer involved in the CIA’s extraordinary rendition program of suspected terrorists to a reporter, even though he did not have a “pattern of activity” which involved trying to out “covert agents.” As I said yesterday Biden’s comment at the end of his speech about the Russians effectively needing a coup against Putin were correct, yet he is denounced by many over here.
I think there may be much more involved in this than an argument about if the USA still promotes regime change in other countries. I know that we have done so, and I personally participated in the process in Panama and in Grenada when in the US Army. It is also more than obvious that we did it on a very big scale in Iraq. President Biden as a leading Senator on on US foreign policy supported all of those regime changes and is on record doing so. Really in this situation I believe President Biden may have actually been getting in front of an organized covert effort to remove Putin by supporting elements in Putin’s own government who believe Putin has gone off the rails and is a danger to the Russian State. Now Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who insists regime change is not on the table for Russia, completely provides a reinterpretation of Biden’s Putin must go comment arguing what Biden wanted to say was something else. No doubt due to Biden’s old age maybe?
We have a legitimate fear over here in the USA of nuclear war, I have stated my own fears many time on this blog and among retired military officers, and there is a terror that Putin might pull that trigger at some point as he has threatened to do several times. Great powers do regime changes in other countries, that of course includes Russia which most notably did it in Hungary in 1956, in Afghanistan along with other places, and planned on doing it in Ukraine. Antony Blinken advocated for the 2003 invasion of Iraq while serving as the Democratic staff director of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee from 2002 to 2008. Which was clearly part of a regime change policy (see the discussion of Blinken in https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/12/us/politics/joe-biden-iraq-war.html ). The USA is now in a non-direct war with Russia, it’s that simple and I think Blinken is a great liar who fully supports making Putin go away, but wants to avoid publicly stating so. Like all nations we get trapped in our own lies.
This article https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/26/russia-reasserts-right-to-use-nuclear-weapons-in-ukraine-putin shows how dangerous Putin can be because Russian policy allows for nuclear weapons to be used in a conventional war to tip the tables against the enemy.
Now the use of nuclear weapon on the Vietnamese communists when the French were trapped at the Battle of Dien Bien Phu was discussed by the US but rejected. So we at least did not go that far.
Just watched Hirtv for ten minutes and heard baloldal 200 times and Gyurcsany 30 times …
My wife visitEd by bus and told me about the latest billboard…
OT
Look up the election in Saarland, really nice results!
Interesting recap of German politics. At least the Germans are now changing in face of reality but this is a sad tale. Of course Hungarians knew the reality, but an entire elite wanted to avoid it.Let’s hope this will improve the EU.
https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-merkel-germany-scholz-foreign-policy-ukraine-war-invasion-nord-stream-2/
😀 Matthew Karnitschnig is a talker nobody knows about a meeting with Schröder and Putin – Matthew Karnitschnig also not but he claim it. 😀
https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/video/video-1000995.html
Recommended. It’s in Hungarian but has English language parts as well. Bottom line, the EU won’t act against Orban because vdLeyen is beholden to Orban and the German elite supports Orban. Sad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjnqDVtU4ik
While this is definitely a very important video for the chapters 1 – 4 and also the connection between EPP and the protection of Orbán within the EU has been demonstrated very well, the outlook is based on 2 myths. 1st that FIDESZ voted for v/d Leyen in secret voting. We only know that Orbán – who wasn’t even allowed to vote in that election – claimed that FIDESZ MEPs voted for her. We mustn’t believe what Orbán tells and the reaction within the EP was visibly different from being happily on the side of the winner! It would have served Orbán much more if her election failed! If Orbán is good in doing one thing it is the abuse of power. That FIDESZ and EPP broke their connection is no reason to treat him with care any longer, since v/d Leyen is EPP member. Not to forget that there is as well a trial ongoing to force the commission to apply the law. The other myth is German companies would protect Orbán through the German government. Yes, BMW does love the idea of getting free money, but the definitive decision whether to open a factory in Debrecen or not is still not taken. This free money is made available because Orbán wants to attract companies to produce in Hungary, not to buy a government. Orbán is well aware that BMW or Daimler are economically so much more powerful than he is! The enlargement of the Mercedes factory is cancelled. Not for not getting enough money from Orbán, but because even with that money it doesn’t make sense for that company. Politicians and advisers often think that they can rule over multinationals. No, they can’t. These companies pick what is good for them and allow the politician to open the facility. Politicians and advisors are so proud at these moments, but their political opponents would have cut this lint as well – at least Orbán did so in Kecskemét, although Gyurcsány signed the contract!
Re the voting, you are right. However, if vd Leyen or her German advisors believe that Orban helped them, they will be grateful, this is just how politics works in the West. You scratch my back etc. Perception is everything and these people are very easy to manipulate (admittedly less so than a decade ago).
Daimler and BMW may be more powerful but they don’t act like that, they like hobnobbing with politicians and like the “service” (always able to do what they want, even if it would not be legal, Orban “solves” the problem for them, like creating an entire infastructure in Debrecen or assembling the land in Győr for Audi, corrupt but it makes life so much easier).
“this is just how politics works in the West.”
Definitely not! This is how deeply corrupt systems as NER work, in the West politicians only smile to each other to show their teeth! If one thing is important for such a function is who is regarded reliable and who not, not who the loudest shouts that he has voted for someone. The latter is so primitive that everyone understands, especially who was so long in politics as the president of the commission. V/D Leyen’s CDU has dropped Orbán 5 years ago, before she took office. They might have kept him in their rows for trying better control, but didn’t do any more favour.
“but they don’t act like that”
Don’t blame companies for not doing politics. Where they do it is against the interest of the people, since they want to earn money – which of course is their raison d’être. Hungary gets this boost through their economic power as long as it pays out. They don’t care about signing contracts with Gyurcsány and having an opening with Orbán, because it is not about politics, but about business. The only who made you believe that it is the great NER what made this factory possible was Orbán – and he lied as usual. At the moment the company doesn’t make enough money they are gone. Källenius didn’t ask Merkel to call Orbán for better conditions, he just stopped the enlargement of the factory. BMW might at some point decide whether the Debrecen factory will be opened or not, the risk is taken by us, the taxpayers, if the infrastructure has been made and will remain unused. You don’t understand that friendly offering a stage for politicians doesn’t mean being weak, it just shows that at the very moment the politician might be a useful idiot for the company’s economic interests.