https://hungarytoday.hu/conservatives-meet-in-brussels-amid-drama-and-intimidation/ Populist Fidesz media are whining about Brussels, the rules and laws so I have one simple question: Why don't…
Media Trouble
Today I start with the end, the end of yesterday’s RTL Klub evening news. This is one of the 2 large TV stations in Hungary, their news attract regularly the largest audience. Since some time they let their well-known faces appear on the screen to encourage people to vote. You may think your part, but it is definitely not stated on whom. Go and vote! Law in Hungary forbids everything else. Parties in campaign time may get access to media on equal basis, which lead to the curious situation that Péter Márki-Zay got 5 minutes in the morning hours to have his say on public TV. Exactly as someone from the dog party, who called on his phone during his 5 minutes. Of course the other 4 admitted lists get their 5 minutes of fame as well. On TV2, the other large station, 8 prominent faces from their news have made their say in a common video what they expect from the future and every single one ended with the same sentence: “This is why I support Viktor Orbán on April 3rd” ►HU. Since this is illegal TV2 got a fine for doing the same in 2018. On RTL the main evening news ended with announcing that a “go and vote” spot would follow. One moderator asked the other onto whom? The answer was clear, this would not be revealed ►HU (including video:) “I am journalist, no propagandist!” Part of journalistic work of RTL is a series about 12 years of FIDESZ rule, presenting for those with a short memory the long row of lies, crimes, and abuse of power ►HU.
Since the beginning of Putin’s war hacker group Anonymous is doing actions against the Russian propaganda. Yesterday they have taken over several regime media, where instead of the usual content messages appeared that this would be a propaganda medium and that Orbán would act as Trojan horse of the Kremlin ►HU. RTL got a day before already an email from Anonymous saying ►EN “All countries and companies must stop supporting the war in Ukraine, All those who continue to do business with Russia or use their power to support the Kremlin are responsible for the killing of civilians. Of all countries which still support Vladimir Putin, the most prominent is the Hungarian government.” While the regime and its true believers are not hesitating damaging websites that are not to their liking (I talk from experience) in this case minister of justice Judit Varga responded quickly. Not the hacker group was responsible, but “international liberal mainstream.” If the opposition would win the elections this would mean the “end of journalism,” she declared ►HU. It is remarkable how little the minister knows what journalism means! And how rare it is in Hungary! And that her house has granted the permissions to spy on the few remaining journalists! In fact the ownership of very most newspaper and one of the largest TV stations in the country won’t be changed by a change of government, they will remain in ownership of companies and foundations controlled by the state party.
Péter Hoppál, state secretary in the ministry of human resources, FIDESZ district candidate in Baranya 2, who in 2018 won the same district with a 40.11 % plurality only, has used his own hands to end messages he disliked. On the main square in Pécs, where Unity for Hungary held the campaign-opening rally, has been placed a media wall displaying messages of Unity for Hungary. This is perfectly legal as long as the local government permits the placement of that media wall. Hoppál just unplugged the device and ended the campaign ►HU. This caused so much damage that the device was not easily started again and it was worked on during the day. The state secretary declared that he acted in civil disobedience. Obviously he has no clue what civil disobedience is, definitely nothing done against the message of an opposition party. Hoppál is musician and perhaps he was disturbed by the fact that Unity for Hungary does not take part in the monotone chorus of regime propaganda. But more likely this was the action of a desperate FIDESZnik aware that he is going to be voted out of his constituency.
And FIDESZ media eternal high priest Zsolt Bayer has used one of his appearances to explain the innocent public, why the opposition so much wanted to delegate into every polling station someone, who takes place in the counting. As we know the counted votes are the only relevant during the elections. Last time we have seen that there were polling stations with surprising results, as only valid votes on FIDESZ candidates and a huge share of invalid votes was counted. In 2018 only in a small number of polling stations were delegates of the opposition parties and there was no co-ordination where opposition delegates will be involved in the counting. But no! Not fair counting was the reason, not refusing a second person entering into the voting booths, not reporting on irregularities and refusing to sign wrong minutes, no! Unity for Hungary wants to cheat! Bayer knew that the old retired woman, who forgot his ID, would be told that she couldn’t vote, because of the presence of members of Unity for Hungary, even if her husband is the chairman of the local election committee. From this incident Bayer makes an attempt to suspend the elections. Well, Bayer should know how elections are done in Hungary. It is a legal requirement to show identification documents and to sign for taking over the ballots before entering the voting booth. Exactly in this order. I also know the members usually sitting in the polling station in person and they know me, but I have to show my documents anyway. Those reading HN from abroad should know that we mustn’t leave home without an ID and we all know which documents are accepted as ID, showing these documents in a polling station is no surprise at all. But perhaps the worst was for Bayer that there has been found a black man called Mohammed among the vote counters. Well, if Mohammed is a Hungarian citizen of at least 18 years old and not banned from taking place in elections by a judge every participating party may send him to count. The same rules apply for delegating as for electing. In the end Unity for Hungary is only waiting for a chance creating a scandal Bayer stated ►HU.
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In the last week I saw Anonymous in news almost every day! I didn’t understand what the face was saying though.
Re inflation etc
If ,(A Majority of…) Huns vote again for Fidesz again after all that happened it serves them right!!!
Says my wife…
At least then they can’t claim that it’s the opposition’s fault…
Well Wolfi this article https://www.direkt36.hu/putyin-hekkerei-is-latjak-a-magyar-kulugy-titkait-az-orban-kormany-evek-ota-nem-birja-elharitani-oket/ that the Russian FSB has completely penetrated virtually all secret Hungarian government communications. Their objective really is not Orban’s Hungary, its potential information relating to NATO and the US defense forces in Europe. I think at the very least the CIA operation in Budapest was aware of this and provided Hungary with disinformation to confuse the Russians.
Orban apparently has known about this for years according to this article. I would also suspect that the CIA has been carrying out extensive surveillance of Orban and other leaders of Fidesz for years now. Even though the direkt36 article indicates that the USA was unaware of the extent of direct Russian penetration of supposedly secure Hungarian systems, I just don’t believe that. I think it was assumed the Russians knew everything in the Hungarian systems.
Istvan, thanks.
Maybe that’s one of the reasons why even the CSU right wingers aka Clerical Fascist s wanted Fidesz out of the EPP??
Do I have an English source for that?
Forint just went from 370 to 367 for one euro. MNB working to win the election???
My neighbor watched”news” on OrbanTV- horrible. But again Anonymous appeared, for a minute maybe, really funny.
The Hungarian media…
This story https://24.hu/belfold/2022/03/29/v4-talalkozo-elmarad-orosz-ukran-haboru/ indicates that the V4 has ceased to exist over the Ukraine and Russia war. According to the Slovak Ministry of Defense, the V4 Defense Ministerial meeting in Budapest scheduled for Wednesday will be missed, The reason was reported to be Hungary’s Russian policy, which is why the Czech Republic and Poland have already withdrawn from the Budapest deliberations.
It is looking right now as if NATO troops going to Hungary have two purposes. One is create some type of defense against potential of Russian SPETSNAZ special forces crossing the border rapidly at will pushing aside the joke Hungarian forces sleeping in gyms near the border and second to effectively prevent Hungary from easily defecting to Russia.
Orban has become toxic, yet he could be reelected.
He will be re-elected.He has no choice and he knows it. Losing the election would mean investigations into his corrupt practices of the past 12 years that would land him in prison for sure (unless he flees to Russia before). Yet on the international scene, it looks like he’s become toxic indeed. I always thought the “friendship” with the Polish PIS was quite fragile considering Poland has a very strong anti-Russian stance (rightly so if you consider the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact that aimed at sharing the country between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union, the Katyn massacre and the Communist rule that followed after WWII).
Zelenszkij spoke to the Danish parliament, and said a.o.:
“I cal on you to raise the issue of solidarity, in the defense of freedom, in the defense of humanity, at the level of the European Union.
There can be no Russian branhes in Europe that split the EU from within, that are trying to help Russia make as much money as possible even now.
Everyone knows very well who in the European Union opposes humanity and common sense. Who does nothing at al to help establish peace in Ukraine.
This must stop, and Europe must stop listening to any excuses from official Budapest.”
Watch it [with English subtitles] at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPtWRoVsL20&t=480s
A precisely dealt verbal uppercut, surely sending Orbán in the European canvas for the count!
Later in the address, Zelenskij focused on the rebuilding process which awaits his country – This was a change of message.
The myghti lidur together with a friend waving at… nobody, senki!!!
watch it at https://twitter.com/yugopnik/status/1508423001980686337
Will OV’s private and “public” media be able to make propaganda from this?
If anybody sees it used anywhere, please comment it here.
Categories of eligible voters at the Hungarian elections.
(data as of March 29, 9 AM)
106 individual constituencies:
#1. Voters who vote in their home precinct and their vote counted on April 3
7,467,663
#2. Voters who vote in their home precinct but their vote is counted only on April 9. (Special twist in Orban’s election law)
70,045
#3. Voters who registered to vote in another precinct inside Hungary for a candidate in their home district. Their vote is counted on April 9.
158,444
#4. Voters who registered to vote in person abroad for a candidate in their home district. Their vote is counted on April 9.
65,634
To be counted on April 9: (six days to mix, six days to lose…)
294,123 = 70045+158444+65634
Second ballot, party list or ethnic vote.
#1
eligible German ethnic voters for 1 Fidesz seat for 1/4 voter number.
32,414
#2
Roma (Gypsy voters) whose vote is wasted
zero (by an official list) or 32,706 (by another official list)
#3
other ethnic voters whose vote is not good for any MP seat
8,936
#4
domestic voters who can vote for parties
7,750,609
#5
voters (some of them dead by design) who do not have an address in Hungary:
456,129
#6
counted winner compensation “votes” from the individual constituencies.
(another unique feature of Orban’s election law)
As of 9 PM on March 29, there are already 151,304 ballots out of the 456,129 maximum possible in the hands of Hungarian officials from people who do not have a Hungarian address.
These people have addresses in
in Romania: 43.01%,
in e-Landia (only e-mail address): 32.68%
in Serbia: 14.99%.
“#6 … counted winner compensation “votes” from the individual constituencies.
(another unique feature of Orban’s election law)”
What does this mean?
The debt of the Hungarian central government went up by
41.27% in the last two years, as measured by the Hungarian Treasury (akk.hu)
2020.02.29: 29.68393
2022.02.28: 41.93416 trillion HUF
Almost funny:
Hungary Today report on Direkt36 articles:
Anonymous interruptions of Fidesz media
Russian hacking the communication systems of the foreign ministry!!!
Median, the most reliable polling company (independent) essentially predicts a close to 2/3s Parliament for Fidesz, by claiming that re the domestic party lists Fidesz has a close to 10% lead.
(Another 300k ballots will be cast from Transylvania and Serbia and 99% of those will be for Fidesz.)
This is a terrifying prediction in light of the all the opposition’s campaign efforts.
This year there is a real opposition campaign (compared to 2018 when there was basically nothing) and even with all these efforts the opposition could perhaps gain 2-3 spots out of the 200??
Imagine what would happen without those efforts (and money) and without a unified approach (as was the case in 2018): Fidesz would be winning by an unprecedented landslide.
It’s mind-boggling. Also the fact that 87% of the Fidesz voters think that things go in the right direction, while 95% of the opposition voters think they go in the wrong direction.
https://444.hu/2022/03/30/median-a-fidesz-fog-gyozni
Viktor Zsiday, a well-known hedge fund manager/blogger crunched some numbers and thinks that Fidesz may increase its support compared to 2018 by 10% (based on real wage increase data).
Hungary is now a entrenched autocracy, that’s all and we have to face this reality.
Same source, another polling, just with completely the opposite results:
https://444.hu/2022/03/29/meglepo-uj-magyar-kozvelemenykutatast-mutatott-be-egy-becsi-kutato-amelyben-biztosan-vezet-az-ellenzek
What do we know: That we have to go and to put our X at the right place!
But that’s not a representative “poll” and the pollster is unknown, with zero track record. When you do a research you need to allow professional scrutiny and it is suspicious if somebody does otherwise.
Moreover, the problem is exactly that in Budapest Fidesz is in minority (it’s easy to find opposition voters) but outside Budapest (including not only villages but bigger towns), Fidesz is king.
I am not optimistic at all. In Budapest the opposition will win most spots (but not all), but from what I have been hearing consistently from rural districts from campaigners who are spending time there (in various districts) – Fidesz is popular and strong.
It’s a tragedy and I have hard time really believing it, but this is actually in line with my experiences in the last many years. I don’t know one single person from outside Budapest who would’ve changed his mind abourt Fidesz. I know one from Budapest, but he won’t make a difference since his district is anyway pro-opposition.
I can only pray that all pollsters are wrong but there are many polls and no poll shows a significant advantage for the opposition (remember that 4-5% party lst advantage would be required for the opposition just to win a bare 1-2 person majority, given the gerrymeander), in fact even the “pro-opposition” pollsters show a Fidesz advantage.
This is very sad.
The source has a reputation for doing very good academic work, this should be enough to take this serious as well. If you read the interview with Karácsony I linked a few days ago you know that the methods of all polls in Hungary allow a huge error margin. Not included the fact that the answers are often not reliable, because people are afraid telling that they don’t like the boss. Some polls include a percentage who tell having made a decision, but don’t want to answer.
No single poll was polling on district level. All work is just broken down from the national lists. In the districts a plurality is needed no majority. Gerrymandering is one thing, but plurality is dangerous for FIDESZ since the major opposition parties are not running against each other. This means FIDESZ would need way more votes than in 2018, since most of their seats they got for less than 50 %, the least winning percentage was about 38 % only! And in 2018 it was the 2nd best mobilisation FIDESZ ever succeeded in, you even see it in the turnout. But FIDESZ has a very limited numbers of voters. The true believing sheep aren’t getting more. The young voters turned 18 since the last elections are overwhelmingly anti-FIDESZ, while the old ones, who love FIDESZ, are dying. The more a party is concentrated on an ageing group of voters, the harder the times become when years pass by. To make it even worse for Orbán: His own corona policies accelerated this effect. And the very high overall rate of those who want to vote shows that finally also the young voters want to cast their vote.
The worst we can do is surrendering, just because of a bad poll. Saying this is a good idea to remind you who would win the 2019 elections in Budapest. Your prediction was not Karácsony and polls predicted the same as you did.