Hungarian News

Polling Stations are open

• April 3, 2022
• István
• 23 Comments

What will happen today? It is really hard to tell. A few weeks ago things seemed pretty clear that if no party will do a huge mistake Orbán would be voted out. Atmosphere among the people, decline in purchase power, Orbán’s main theme was gay bashing, which is not even popular in the smallest villages, all signs that FIDESZ wouldn’t be able to motivate, while those who want to put an end to all this were highly motivated. To all this Putin put an end.

Now we have a regime lying about the opposition would start war with Russia and would keep the houses cold. Funny enough in the villages where FIDESZ is strong is gas either not available at all or most houses aren’t connected regarding the costs, gas is way more relevant for those living in the bigger cities. Unity for Hungary as party working for Zelensky, the bad Ukrainian president that brought Putin so far to defence Russia. After declaring war on everything, battling against the EU, migrants, gays, debt, a virus, and even against corruption, debt, and bureaucracy (yes, these were very important reasons for many to vote on FIDESZ in 2010) Orbán not only lost every fight, but plays now the pacifist.

And Unity for Hungary not only fighting corruption, but also having a plan to make the minimum wage tax-free again, to help the poorer families with benefits instead of buying half new cars for the rich ones, put raising food prices on a halt by radically lowering the VAT on food, to invest in education and health care instead of stadiums.

In March 2022 we had a rise of food prices of 13.5 % according to the monthly measuring of Privátbankár – despite the state prices on chicken carcasses and sugar. We had limited or no chance to buy fuel, but this was the cheapest in Europe, because Orbán in the beginning made the petrol station owners, later the whole salers to pay for it. Teachers in strike since weeks, the older pupils demonstrating next to their teachers. 28 % want to leave the country in case Orbán stays in power. Not to forget that Orbán himself wanted being measured according to the number of corona deaths, 45 510 as on Friday (for the state it is not important enough to publish these numbers in weekends.) Völner with as much bribe as many Hungarians not even earned in their entire lives, to be silent about the only superficially formally correct looking enrichment of the elites. And Putin, Orbán’s best friend in international politics, started a brutal war in our largest direct neighbour country.

In a country with informed citizens these are so many reasons to for a change that the list of FIDESZ – KDNP should be afraid about the threshold. Since more than 5 weeks nearly all media tell us about the justified military actions Putin undertakes, while the opposition wants to have war here in Hungary as well. This morning FIDESZ uttered “who votes on the left votes for the war.” It reminds me to 2018, when so many were deadly scared by the migrants, who mustn’t be called refugee, while they never had seen a single refugee in real life. The Saturday before the 2018 elections a psychically ill German drove a car into a terrace of a restaurant in Germany and shot himself to death. The regime media invented that it was an islamist attack, although German police knew that man and from the very beginning they said that this was no terror attack. I sat in the car when I heard this in the regime radio news and I was very afraid how the elections would end.

And today? I honestly don’t know. All depends on the damage the brainwashing has caused. How much Orbán succeeded in scaring those who are generally deeply disappointed from the politics of the last 12 years? How much those wanting a change are unsure now and stay at home? Orbán this morning said that “all communists are going to vote.” Communists only have a few candidates in the districts, they did not succeed in putting together a party list under the newest rules. So am I a communist? I for my part consider this as another reason to make an end to all this.

Regarding the specialities within the Hungarian electoral system we don’t know a lot when looking at the percentages. We really have to watch every single district. Well, there are some where we may assume the name of the winner, but more we don’t know. Last time the parties of Unity for Hungary won 50 seats along the party lists and 15 districts. 15 districts out of 106. Winning the districts is way more important than a meagre percentage more. I saw one estimation that these 15 could be doubled. Definitely not enough. Often about 30 districts are regarded as possibly changing to the opposition while even 37 had in 2018 a FIDESZ plurality against a majority of votes for the parties that are united now – 52 instead of 15. This would be – together with the same number of seats from the lists – enough. Gergely Karácsony said recently that he is sure about winning at least 57 districts, but he wouldn’t be surprise if it would be 65. This would mean that Unity for Hungary wins all districts where FIDESZ had no majority (a few districts had relatively successful candidates from tiny parties, with as result FIDESZ having no majority, but still more votes than Unity,) but also 6 districts were FIDESZ got the majority in 2018. Since it is in some districts only about a few 100 votes more or less than in 2018 it is extremely hard to say. Last time 23 party lists were running, now only 6, not so much caused by the union of 6 parties running on 5 lists last time, but mostly caused by the tightened rules to make it more difficult for the genuine opposition.

The myth of the cheating opposition came back this morning, Someone wrote on the walkway in front of a polling station in Mezőtúr “Do not sell your vote.” While today campaigning is forbidden 150 m from polling stations I am questioning that this could be seen as campaigning in the sense of the law. FIDESZ reacted with bashing the opposition for this really terrible call.

I’ll go now and write down 10 times X and will be back when as soon as the polling stations close this evening for a probably long night to report on all incoming results.

Next post at 7 o’clock this evening!