Hitler would have won with 2/3 in 1945, Hungarian voters decided not to send solders to war today!

  • April 4, 2022
  • István
  • 47 Comments

The 1st part of the headline was the reaction of Péter Márki-Zay yesterday evening. Both the words of a bad loser and very true. I don’t think that we need to discuss the question of good and bad loser, since this is a question of fairness and the system Orbán created is everything, but not fair. The voters decided not to send Hungarian soldiers into war this Monday. The 2nd part of the headline is so true as well. Of course none of the parties wanted to do so. But at least the majority in Hungary seems to believe this propaganda lie. Now the election results are 2/3 in parliament for the Orbán regime based on 52.75 % of the vote. The 2nd time Orbán got the majority of votes after 2010.

It is hard to explain why the turnout was at 18:30 higher than at 19:00. The official numbers of the national election office showed even in the graphics a reduced percentage. This has been changed in the meanwhile, the turnout was 69.54 % according to the data as published now. Definitely no typical human error, 67.46 is no typo, no twist of ciphers.

In the end Péter Márki-Zay stood alone on the podium, no party leader, but wife and children stood in the rear. Péter Jakab and Ferenc Gyurcsány turned against him soon. Yes, perhaps the candidate of Unity for Hungary was not the right person. Perhaps the choice between a soooo christian and a soooo christian candidate wasn’t really too different in a country where believe is something if at all for private life, but a pretty useless thing for the vast majority. Perhaps it was just the bad deal behind closed doors. If I remember the interviews Karácsony gave the last days the deal might have pushed the wrong candidate. Same message, but clearly more substance. But of course democracy can include the choice for the least evil candidate, while I definitely don’t want to say that Márki-Zay is evil. Just not ideal. I decided to go for him. I offered to democratic forces help in campaigning before I ever heard his name, twice my name stood on the ballot for my local council, even before MZP was elected mayor, but this time I financially sustained the most. At least I got quite a good feeling during one of MZP’s rallies I took place in, the feeling that there is more behind the sometimes – let’s say less elegant appearance. Voting for an imperfect candidate, especially when benevolent candidate is running against a brutally self-serving criminal, needs to be learned as part of democracy. This however is very difficult to explain in a country without democracy, where in the regime media are in a completely constructed fight between good and bad.

Honestly I have no idea to what extent was cheated. Burned ballots. Parties collecting votes. The election office refusing to care about “incidents abroad,” as if it would be about an election abroad and not about the Hungarian parliament. The Lázár pig. Votes for 10 000 Ft. Many busses transporting voters illegally. Many complaints that sick people got no chance to vote. An anti-corruption MP advising in public better to vote invalid if the employer wants to see a picture of the ballot with an X for the state party by adding another X after taking that picture. The disgusting brainwashing in the state media. The state party buying billboards way over the legal limit, not even counted the costs for internet advertisement, the state sponsored billboard posters, the GONGO advertisement, or all the endless lies spread through the state and regime media, which on their turn have again campaigned with ads against Unity for Hungary. We will see a report of the OSCE observation and I am sure that it will be not very positive, but definitely it won’t change anything. Orbán doesn’t care about his reputation.

Somehow this result is even fair. Now Orbán has to clean up the swamp he created. Those who voted for Orbán have to pay for the bill they will be presented. On election day Orbán was asked whether he will be able to finance further the overhead cuts and he answered that this will be determined after the elections. There goes the cheap gas. Or the VAT jumps upwards. Or something as the telecom tax, which of course only the providers will pay and they for sure can’t calculate the how to let the consumers pay – mine sent an SMS the same day with the new conditions. Or something as the transaction tax, which of course only the banks – see above.

28 % of the population in economically active age want to leave the country. Measured with the KSH data (6.18 million are aged from 15 to 64 as described in statistics) these are 1.73 million. Hardly below the number of citizens that voted for Unity for Hungary. Although I am retired I will leave as well. I am born in the diaspora and now I will spend my last days in the diaspora as well. Better than staying! Perhaps it was my worst decision to return to Hungary. At least not to move further when I got offered another position elsewhere.

I am not able to close the door behind me and forget the world Orbán created directly next to me. I need distance to the people who forgot to care about themselves. And I can’t stand any more listening to those telling how bad the people are treated by the elite in Budapest, while exactly the same people have bravely voted for this treatment. In the poorest places Orbán got the most votes. The more existences Orbán destroys, the more votes he will get from his victims. Of course this is a description of the situation only, not of the reasons.

It is an old saying that Budapest is not Hungary. This has been proven again yesterday. 16 of 18 districts won by the opposition. The 2 districts won by FIDESZ are won by small margins. In one the tiny fake party of the king of porn, the very man who told the world that he would get 2/3 in parliament, got more votes than the difference between Unity and state party. In the other there is a difference of 0.07 % or 38 votes. In the rest of the country Unity was swiped away. They lost Dunaújváros, where FIDESZ got 39.6 % in 2018 and 46.8 % yesterday. In Pécs the same candidate, who won as independent in 2018 against FIDESZ and against the parties of Unity yesterday had a hard evening, for some time he was only seen as 2nd. The other district of Pécs, where unplugging Hoppál had in 2018 only 40.1 %, he now got exactly 5 points more. BTW his original fine for the unplugging action was reduced from half a million to 20 000 Ft (from 1 360 to 55 €) just after the polling stations closed. I wouldn’t say that he did such a great job the last years, unplugging what he dislikes is pretty typical for him. In Somogy 1, where Népszava did the effort to find the 2 namesakes of real politicians of Unity for Hungary and remarked “his torn pyjamas are embarrassing, and not just because of the afternoon,” one namesake got 4.51 % of the votes! 4.51 % of the voters have made their X for a candidate whose only qualification is his name, who only appeared in public, because a newspaper searched for him. They voted without having a look whether there are 6 party names and party symbols or the word independent written next to the name! This fraud didn’t change the result, but I really can get angry for such a stupidity!

In the next 4 years we will see the only thing Orbán is able to perform: Escalations. The EU will cut funds, in case of a closer approach of Poland to the EU – Duda already made suggestions that might calm down their own troubles with Brussels – we could face a voting in the Art 7 procedure, if Orbán will leave the EU even sooner. Exactly 51 days ago Orbán announced to leave EU if the EU won’t play according to his rules. There we are today. We don’t need a lot of knowledge how clubs usually react if an irritating member wants to pressure the tennis club to play soccer instead of tennis, we know where this ends. Besides this the V4 didn’t end-up in a V2 as I wrote after the elections in the Czech Republic, but in an O1 already now. Whatever might happen there is only a single Putin pincsi left among the relevant EU politicians. The others want to make forget their love to Putin or will be sunk by their voters – all except Orbán.

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Marty
Marty
April 4, 2022 11:48

Sadly Orban will get the funds, perhaps not EUR 40bn in donations, but only EUR 17bn in loans, but it will be enough, he will spend the money (and steal from it of course) but it will be enough to keep key constituencies happy. If he doesn’t get the money, he will keep vetoing things. Simple as that. And Germany will give in, they have a lot of problems anyway. A few more months with high prices and people (and the industry leaders) will get restless in Germany or France too. Orban just has to wait and then cut his deal. Orban position in Hungary is rock solid, and without a serious and longlasting economic crises he is here to say for ever (at least 20-30 more years).

It’s clear now that hard-right voters will not vote for an alliance that is dominated by “leftwingers” (the former Jobbik voters voted for Fidesz and Mi Hazánk this time instead, only a small portion stayed with “Gyurcsany”). But otherwise the maths isn’t there.

In a first past the post system, a party (block) that has 20% less than the other block cannot possibly have realistic chances of winning (especially as due to the gerrymander it would have to prevail by 3-4% at least, not counting the ballots from Transsylvania). A minus 24-25% point disadvantage is just absurd.

Unfortunately, in times of crises parties like Mi Hazánk tend to grow not lefty parties led by old commies like Gyurcsany (who is also not going anywhere, making the life of the opposition untenable).

Akos Hadhazy already raised that the opposition will have to “renew itself”, sure, but Gyurcsany and Dobrev will stay so there won’t be any renewal, and even with them the maths just isn’t there. I just don’t know what Hadhazy has in mind – or rather I know but Gyurcsany just doesn’t care, he will stay in politics just like Orban as log as he lives. Gyurcsany is just as selfish and destructive and useless in his own way as Orban is.

The prospects are terrible and I don’t see any light at the end of the tunnel.

Marty
Marty
April 4, 2022 13:12
Reply to  István

I would love to believe that this will be so, however I am pretty sure that Orban will get the money, if not now then in 6 months’ time.

The European situation is changing as voters are getting dissatisfied all over Europe, maintaining the coalition against the Russians will become more difficult and in order to keep Orban in line (most of the time), he will want his money.

The source doesn’t matter, the EU can set up another facility or the ECB can buy Hungarian government bonds, or whatever – the point is there has to be a “compromise” or Orban will veto any and all things in the EU.

The issue with the EU is that there are matters which require unanimity all the time, it doesn’t matter what the issue is, he will just wield his veto and that’s that, nobody can do a thing.

Orban will issue bonds and then he will refinance them with these EU sources, that’s my guess.

The German government was supposed to be understanding of Russia and they did an about face when circumstances changed. They can do an about face re Orban too, doing some nice deal with him which the EU and Germany are famous for.

The issue is this: every politician from a democratic country in the West feel his/herslef in danger, except for Orban whose position is rock solid, he can wait, he has all the time in the world.

And that matters unfortunately in politics, and so he will get what he wants. Moreover, after the mid-terms the GOP will wield much more power and that will mean the Biden admin will have to be more understanding of Orban.

So all in all, I don’t see what could force Orban to behave differently – to the contrary as we heard on one of those TV shows yesterday, we will now have Orban on steroids, he will double down on his policies and behaviour.

Marty
Marty
April 4, 2022 15:21
Reply to  István

I hope you will be right, but I think your narrative is way too optimistic.

theestampe
theestampe
April 5, 2022 09:40
Reply to  István

It’s worth noting that with the exception of Slovenia’s Janez Janša (as far as I know), no other EU leader has congratulated Orbán. This goes to show Orbán will be isolated like never before.

Misi bacsi
Misi bacsi
April 5, 2022 04:27
Reply to  Marty

Your understanding of US politics is mistaken. Hungarian elections mean nothing to most Americans and in so far as a small GOP group likes Orban, that will not influence Biden’s treatment of the Orban regime.

Marty
Marty
April 5, 2022 11:41
Reply to  Misi bacsi

I did not say Hungary will influence the US elections. However Trump admires Orban, and Orban has been pouring a lot of money into projects/advisors linked to the GOP. When the GOP will call the shots in the House and the Senate (after the midterms), Orban will have admirers again and that will help him a lot.

SandF
SandF
April 5, 2022 07:10
Reply to  István

Let us realize that the election was lost because –

  1. Fake parties were set up to draw votes
  2. Traitors were installed in all opposition parties
  3. DK and Jobbik were not completely engaged for MZP
  4. and a lot more hidden and open acts were committed.

But the decent politicians, less and less left must work for reforms and transparency. MZP must remain active.

The past generation must make room for new faces.

FIDESZ will split, Szijjarto and Orban will be left back sooner and later.

Pantanifan
Pantanifan
April 5, 2022 11:49
Reply to  István

Agreed, Fidesz will be united as long as Orbán “él és virul”, after that it might be a completely different story but we have to hope for something to change before then (and work towards it somehow). Orbán’s closeness to Putin may cause him problems in the future, but that is beyond our control…

Marty
Marty
April 5, 2022 11:38
Reply to  SandF

Fidesz will not split (for so many reasons), you are out of your mind.

Marty
Marty
April 4, 2022 13:13
Reply to  István

I know, propaganda is all encompassing and sophisticated. It works. There’s nozt much we can do, the propaganda machinery is so vast, it’s impossible even to start to counter it.

jan
jan
April 4, 2022 13:56
Reply to  István

Propaganda works, true, all the dirty tricks are despicable, of course.
But still, 60% of Hungarian voters voted fascists. If I speak the number loud, I get chilly feelings on my skin. This people is lost in my opinion. Soon with the following election there will be new voters who only got their education in the Viktors fairy tale schools. Nationalism and propaganda from the beginning till the end.
The only thing I have some Schadenfreude about is the fact that they will have no money to play with anymore. Of course, they will blame the rest of the world, but the 60% will also feel reality, and may get this feeling someone cheated.
Furthermore, I propose sanctions against Hungary, because the Viktor declared Zelensky as an enemy.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60977917
We seem to increase the number of enemies every election. (:

Marty
Marty
April 4, 2022 14:24
Reply to  jan

See the issue is that the Hungarian population decreases (without COVID and immigration) by some 50k a year.

This means that the available workforce is decreasing continuously.

So there is and will be demand for a lot of jobs, especially for the working class. Most jobs which open don’t require a college degree, and as most people don’t have a degree, these people are happy and like how things are (especially when they compare the situation to 15-20 years ago). 15 years ago, there may have been 1 million more people vying for fewer jobs, now companies are struggling to hire workforce in the blue collar segment.

People are not worried too much about the economy because they think they will be able to get a job anyway and that this situation is attributable to Orban (wheres the last leftist government “only took away money from them”).

But to the extent they will be upset, they will blame Brussels, Soros, the liberls, the globalists, the bankers etc.

I agree. at least 60% voted for fascist parties. The democratic opposition has 35% and it is enough for nothing especially in this election system.

Essentially nobody who was a Fidesznik in 2002 has ever left Fidesz, in fact Fidesz increased its support very significantly.

How can the opposition flip these long-term Fideszniks? It cannot.

Fidesz and IOrban are here to stay. Fidesz is not a party, it’s a community and an identity – whereas no comparable identity or community exists on the other side. And note that Orban is even more popular than Fidesz is, people outside Budapest like Orban, want to be like him, want a spouse like him.

Marty
Marty
April 4, 2022 15:19
Reply to  István

sorry, compared to 2018. also in 2010 there was no ballots from Transsylvania, now there will be many.

jan
jan
April 4, 2022 17:01
Reply to  Marty

The people not being worried is true. But the poor people in this country who voted fidesz will discover the hard reality soon. And these poor people will have to drop their “low-level” existence to an even lower level. And then it will worry them.

Marty
Marty
April 4, 2022 17:17
Reply to  jan

Sure but Mi Hazánk can gobble them up. In times of (financial) crisis the extreme right parties are better at talking to voters, than left-wing parties.

As Mi Hazánk is fundamentally loyal to Fidesz,next time there could be a coalition between the two parties, if need be.

The problem is that poor people are also conservative socially, so they don’t want to vote for “liberal” even if they are angry.

The 1m Jobbik voters of 2018 dispersed, and only a fraction voted for the united opposition. They felt that they are ‘conservative’ and don’t want to vote for liberals.

The issue is that the left/liberal block (including the now more mainstream Jobbik) make up only 1/3 of the voters.

Even in a proportional system that is too weak, but in a system that relies heavily on the first past the post element of the system, this makes it impossible for them to ever win – since they would have to flip long term fidesznik voters, who would have change identity (not just party preference). And that happens rarely. Fidesz and Jobbik succeeded in that in 2010 when the left-wing imploded, but since then the right-wing identity of these people (in line with the hegemonic roght wing ideology) solidified completely. Changing that identity is almost impossible, meanwhile Fidesz’ get-out-the-vote machinery is second to none, probably better organized than the GOP’s.

jan
jan
April 4, 2022 19:54
Reply to  Marty

I already wrote this people is lost. I only will watch with pleasure how the level of life drops. The prices of the farhát will skyrocket soon, the tomatoes did that already. The quality in the state groceries like CBA will drop, when the Viktor tries to dictate the prices to Lidl and co. they will leave. The loans will have to be paid back soon. On the long run banks do not want to make losses. No help from the EU.
No money for anything. Let´s see what will happen.
And the opposition cannot be made responsible for the deep drop.
(I know they will try to make them responsible)

Marty
Marty
April 4, 2022 20:39
Reply to  jan

I don’t blame the opposition. I worked for it a lot and we did everything possible under the circumstances (in Budapest that is, the rural campaigns were more amateurish, some candidates were corrupted for sure not to campaign too hard etc.). Hungary is an autocracy, this was possible. The united opposition’s campaign machinery is at the level of Fidesz in 2002 (probably a bit weaker oustside Budapest). That’s a huge progress, but the system is rigged.

theestampe
theestampe
April 5, 2022 09:43
Reply to  jan

Yet they will vote again for Fidesz in the next elections. Will they ever learn? I doubt it.

Phil_S_Stine
Phil_S_Stine
April 6, 2022 10:20
Reply to  jan

…. and these people will get pretty much what they deserve and have no-one to blame but themselves; not that that will stop them from blaming eveyrone else, from Soros to the EU, as Marty says above.

Roll on Huxit!

Pantanifan
Pantanifan
April 4, 2022 12:36

Apologies to Istvén for citing Russian media, but Putin has congratulated Orbán…
https://tass.com/politics/1431995

theestampe
theestampe
April 5, 2022 09:46
Reply to  Pantanifan

So have China and Turkey via their ministers of foreign affairs.

tappanch
tappanch
April 4, 2022 13:37

The election is not over. About 245,000 votes will be counted only on April 9, Orban can still lose seats in the in Parliament, after the final results are in.

The election Bureau did not provide details about the absentee votes this time (and I do not have desire to add 3000+ numbers together), so let me have an estimate

embassy absentee ballots: 57 623 out of 65 480 registered (88.00%)

The election Bureau did not provide details about the absentee votes this time (and I do not have desire to add 3000+ numbers together), so let me give an estimate.

domestic absentee ballots: 88%* 157 551 = 138 645
106 sequestered precincts: 69%*70000 = 48 300

57623+138645+48300 = 244568

Attention: In these 6 days of the Smoke & Mirror Mixing, some 6000 domestic absentee votes were lost in 2018.

tappanch
tappanch
April 4, 2022 16:15
Reply to  István

It is clear at this year’s election (as opposed to 2018) that 1.04% is NOT the number of votes not yet counted, but

1.04%= (106+1)/10243.

106 precincts, one for each electoral districts will be counted on March 9. Before counting, the ballots will be mixed by Orban law with the absentee ballots arriving from other electoral districts or from the embassies.(This is another Orban trick to hide possible cheating if cheating is needed).

The not yet counted 245,000 votes is about 4.7% of the votes cast for individual electoral districts on April 9.

tappanch
tappanch
April 4, 2022 16:31
Reply to  tappanch

Orban will also get about 194,000 party list votes from Romania and Serbia (ethnic Hungarians with no address in Hungary).

This counting is underway.
At 21.4% of the ballots counted, Fidesz has received 95.12% or 41194 such votes.

tappanch
tappanch
April 4, 2022 16:46
Reply to  tappanch

For instance,

BP05: 67/68 = 98.53%
BP17: 93/94 = 98.94%

Marty
Marty
April 4, 2022 14:53

Edit Zgut, a political scientist at the Polish Academy of Sciences in Warsaw, predicted that a clear victory for Orban would allow him to move further in an autocratic direction, sidelining dissidents and capturing new areas of the economy.

“Hungary seems to have reached a point of no return,” she said. “The key lesson is that the playing field is tilted so much that it became almost impossible to replace Fidesz in elections.”

Very true, but I would say, it’s not ‘almost’ impossible, it is impossible, period.

We have to face this.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/hungarians-head-to-polls-in-the-shadow-of-war-in-ukraine/2022/04/03/538c82e2-b30a-11ec-9dbd-0d4609d44c1c_story.html

Wolfi7777
Wolfi7777
April 4, 2022 15:38

Marty has a few good points. But I think in this situation EU needs all the money so Orban will make it responsible for Hungary’s problems like inflation etc. The stupid Huns will believe him but that won’t help them.
Just heard that 30 percent or more of restaurants will have to close and other business too
My wife’s son says at least 50 000 people will leave to work in other countries.
Hungary is already among the last in EU – good riddance!
That 7 percent voted for the fascist party …
I have to stop here, typing on the phone is horrible.

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
April 4, 2022 17:35
Reply to  Wolfi7777

I think this discussion avoids Orban’s claim he will be able to keep Hungary out of war. With the many murdered Ukrainian civilians, in fact in some cases shot in the back of the head by Russian forces, being discovered and documented by Human Rights Watch, AFP, and many others this situation will not stabilize anytime soon. There is now a River of blood to be dealt with.

The situation of the Russian Army is deteriorating and Putin is resorting to Stalinist tactics with his own military leadership. The strategy now seems to be to cut off and destroy Ukrainian forces in the Donbas who are entrenched in defensive positions. In fact the Russians themselves could be annihilated moving troops along with their logistics collapsing.

All of this will take time to play out and more and more weapons along with ammunition will be sent into Ukraine because NATO/USA smells the possibility of a huge defeat for the Russians. Putin may use tactical nuclear weapons in an attempt to save the military fiasco he finds himself in. Hopefully Putin will be shot by his own apparatus before he opens the gates of hell. Russian natural gas production will be targeted by the Ukrainians who have already penetrated Russian air defenses at their borders if Putin is not contained.

Orban’s vision of keeping out of the war makes many assumptions about some type of peace agreement being reached and the worse possibilities not happening.

Pantanifan
Pantanifan
April 4, 2022 19:03
Reply to  István

I heard that tanks and military equipment were being allowed through Hungary already, just they had to cross into Romania before going to Ukraine…

Pantanifan
Pantanifan
April 4, 2022 18:45

Orbán’s claim about staying out of the war was just an attempt to show himself as the proven, stable leader, the main thing for him was to stay in power, anything else is secondary

He’s well practised at using everything (including tragedies like a war) for political purposes. The picture he depicted in the final week of the campaign was of himself as the seasoned “statesman”, who won’t allow Hungary to be dragged into the war (unlike his opponent), and will make sure Russian gas keeps flowing whatever happens (unlike his opponent).

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
April 5, 2022 01:00
Reply to  Pantanifan

Poland has said it would be ‘open’ to having nuclear weapons stationed in the country and would also welcome a 50 percent increase in the number of U.S. troops stationed in Europe, deputy prime minister Jaroslaw Kaczynsk said yesterday. We are heading down a dangerous road and Orban will not be able to stop this it is well above his pay grade as we used to say in the Army.

Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
April 4, 2022 20:19

I find it probable, if not already agreed in writing, that Orbán must honor a condition for his gas-deal, not to involve HU troops and logistics in anything regarding Ukraine.

Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
April 4, 2022 23:57

The Wagner-outfit – what should they do against the Ukrainians? I think they are there to clean up in the ranks of Russian doubters and other things unmentionable.

tappanch
tappanch
April 4, 2022 19:44

“What should Russia do with Ukraine?”

The future of Ukraine as the official Russian news agency imagines.
April 3, 2022

Ukrainian army or self-defense should be destroyed
Even the name Ukraine should be erased.
Population should be fed Russian propaganda.

Forced labor for resistance against Russia
etc.
All this repression would be carried out in the name of “de-Nazification”

This is a completely insane article.

https://ria.ru/20220403/ukraina-1781469605.html

Robert
Robert
April 4, 2022 23:35
Reply to  tappanch

Interesting but it ain’t going to happen.