As I am not part of any Catholic denomination or doctrine, there is no way I can relate to whatever…
The Future of Orbán’s Fascist Zoo
Yesterday Freedom House has published a new report about the “nations in transit” as they call the formerly communist countries in the Eastern half of Europe. Nothing to be proud about, especially not from the Hungarian point of view. While states as Moldova are slowly creeping upwards from the lowest rankings of authoritarian rule, Hungary, once a democracy, is declining under Orbán further and further. Together with Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia democracy found an end here.
The ranks of hybrid regimes have been swollen by elected leaders in erstwhile democracies who abandoned any commitment to liberal democratic principles in their pursuit of a de facto monopoly on power. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán of Hungary exemplifies this trend, and he has worked actively to propagate likeminded governments across Central and Eastern Europe. Still playing the good democrat, he allowed competitive elections on April 3 of this year, but he and his Fidesz party pressed the entire state apparatus—along with the politically captured bulk of the civic and media sectors—into service against the opposition. The vote was consequently not free, let alone fair. Now that Orbán has survived it, he is likely to give full vent to his illiberal and kleptocratic tendencies. Much the same could be said of President Aleksandar Vučić of Serbia, who, along with his Serbian Progressive Party, swept that country’s April 3 elections.
Both men are following the ignoble path blazed in the 2000s by the governments of President Milo Đukanović of Montenegro and former prime minister Nikola Gruevski of North Macedonia, which dispensed with liberal norms by bribing voters, wiretapping opponents, and resisting any mechanisms of transparency or accountability that might have interfered with the corrupt and opaque exercise of power….
At the same time, the fact that no hybrid regime has reverted to authoritarianism is a testament to the abiding power of the liberal international order and the values it represents. In the case of Hungary and the hybrid regimes of the Western Balkans, the European Union (EU) remains an imperfect but important bulwark against precipitous democratic backsliding.
The EU may even be able to reverse some damage: its hard-won conditionality mechanism for the rule of law, which ties the bloc’s budgetary disbursements to member states’ respect for foundational EU values, could play a crucial role in shoring up Hungary’s democracy, though the European Commission must test this hypothesis by fully implementing it. In the formerly authoritarian states of the EU’s Eastern Partnership, the promise of liberal democracy—of genuine popular sovereignty, good governance, respect for human rights, and economic growth—remains attractive enough that citizens are willing to fight for it. In Ukraine, they are even willing to risk their lives for it.The entire report is published here ►EN.
Paul Lendvai, a Hungarian journalist living in Austria and a person always analysing the situation in Hungary extremely to the point with great knowledge and reliable forecasts concerning the regime wrote ►DE.:
Never before during my visits in roundabout 50 years have I felt such a gloomy mood in Hungary as during Holy Week after the fourth election victory of the FIDESZ party, led by Viktor Orbán for more than thirty years now. After the unexpectedly clear defeat of the united opposition, which consisted of six parties and was led by the none-party-member Péter Márki-Zay, all the people I spoke to reported about an increased tendency towards emigration, in my family, and in my circle of friends. Against the background of the almost total state control of the scientific institutes and the media the only option left for independent liberal humanities scholars and political commentators is to retreat into internal emigration.
Masterful and mendacious
Not only the special factors, such as the fear of the consequences following the Ukraine war were whipped up masterfully and mendaciously (just like in 2015 in the refugees question) and the “election gifts” worth 4.5 billion Euro, were responsible for the loss of 753 000 opposition votes (in comparison to 2018). The alliance of convenience between the politically diverse groups, without a convincing government program and without an impressive joint list of ministers, failed to win over voters disappointed by the thoroughly corrupt Orbán team and even suffered losses in Budapest and other urban centres….
The NER (Nemzeti Együttmüködés Rendszere – System of National Co-operation,) invented by Orbán, could develop into a conservative, authoritarian and personalised system in the long term, comparable to the “New State” (Estado Novo) established in Portugal between 1932 and 1974 under Antonio de Oliveira Salazar.
And if there would have been a need to confirm the dark views of our future by Freedom House and Lendvai the minister in the office of the prime minister Gyulás delivered! The next Orbán government will start with another change of the constitution Orbán had written in stone ►HU. The government needs more rights to act within in the state of emergency, which Hungary is in continuously since 2015. Yes, since 7 years! Details were not announced, but be prepared for the worst.
So I end today with a quote of the writer László Krasznahorkai: “Hungary is not a country but a psychiatric hospital. The doctors ran away, the inmates took over the place.”
Since Melania and Donald formally met with the Pope I suspect her transgressions may also have been forgiven.
Melania Trump is a Slovenian Catholic, but it is unclear if she attends mass at any parish. It is clear…
But wait, Donald Trump’s wife Melania hosted a closed-door fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago not long ago for the Log Cabin Republicans,…
Fascistic - or fantastic? Extreme right wing "leaders" from all over the world will meet this weekend at the CPAC…
Apparently the state of emergency is needed because of the war in Ukraine, so I assume that all the other EU neighbours of Ukraine will also be imposing a state of emergency soon?
Or maybe only Hungary feels the need to have an excuse for authoritarianism…
I didn’t hear about such plans elsewhere. We are the only country which is in constant state of emergency because of a refugee crisis (since 2015.) We just need to remember what happened with the state of emergency because of corona! Besides a couple of decrees concerning health care the very most were actions to secure the power of the regime. So we may be sure that the regime will abuse all powers as much as possible.
Biden kept in place Covid provisions at the US border with Mexico used to block those seeking asylum hearings from entering the USA. They have been forced to wait on the Mexican side of the border until the day of their hearing.
These rules were put in place by President Trump using Title 42 of the US federal code, a longstanding public health provision. COVID-19-related border restrictions are set to expire next month in a move that would impact the influx of immigrants. It is possible Biden will extend them, because he under pressure to control the border from both Republicans and Democrats.
So Hungary is not the only place where Covid restrictions were used as an excuse to carry out actions that might otherwise be illegal. Having just returned to Chicago from Arizona I saw first hand many people being picked up in the 60 mile zone controlled by the US border patrol.
No excuses for others abusing special rights for other purposes. Neither for that country nor for others. But does Biden plan a state of emergency because of the war in Ukraine as well?
No, but Biden did order a special provision to Federal title 42 baring asylum seekers to wait in the USA pending their hearing only for Ukrainian citizens related to the war. It allows rapid entry only for them for one year. This has gotten the thousands of Central Americans and in particular Haitians who have in some cases been waiting in Mexico for over a year or more for an asylum hearing very upset. see https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/29/us/ukrainians-us-mexico-border-cec/index.html The asylum laws here really are pretty tight and the majority of US immigration judges issued asylum denials in at least 70% of all cases heard.
The USA also still has special security laws in place that go all the way back to the 9/11 attacks. Within months of the attacks, the George W. Bush Administration had authorized spying on Americans, a new secretive military tribunal system, and begun secretly detaining men from Muslim and Arab countries. There have been attempts to roll back some of these policies in the years since, but many post-9/11 developments have remained in place, impacting America’s use of force abroad, immigration and surveillance policies, and the delicate balance of separation of powers.
So to some degree we do some of the same things Orban is doing. In neither case are the continuation of emergency orders using executive action really appropriate in either Hungary or the USA. But both of our nations have created loopholes that allow our chief executive officers to do these things with the tacit consent of our legislative bodies.
A new “state of emergency” is needed for legal reasons. All kinds of unusual legal decisions (effective nationalizations of businesses of problematic business people etc.) can be justified legally with the various forms of state of emergency. No court can possibly overrule or criticize a government decision if it was “necessary for natinal security reasons” etc. Orban is a good lawyer and thinks about preparing the necessary paperwork.That’s all.
Good lawyer? 16 years that so many of his laws were declared invalid, so many actions illegal. After 16 years he learned that he can’t play around with the courts. Tell me, does a “good lawyer” needs 16 years to learn this easy fact? Or is it the sign for a terrible lawyer that he can’t even design laws and decrees that don’t fail at court? You should know, judges are bound to codified law. It is nothing else but to make the life easier for a regime that has no clue how to pass a law that is not unconstitutional or a decree that is not illegal. A good thief gets away and won’t be caught, while the regime is caught always and everywhere.
I welcome Marty’s observations and am calling on all of us to treat his words with gratitude.
Argue only if there is a clear exaggeration..
Clearly the most gratitude has to go to Istvan who took on the thankless burden of running a blog. But I have always thought Marty’s posts on Eva’s blog were well worth reading, no matter how increasingly irritating Eva found them over the years. It is also more than obvious that Marty’s estimate of the electoral power of Fidesz was largely correct when compared with Eva’s analysis of Fidesz and Orban constantly being in crisis.
Eva’s legacy ties to Hungary were largely urban and she often seemed to be a promoter of DK in a rather duplicitous way as she was called out for doing by Miklos Haraszti on her blog.. She was in many other ways brilliant and amazingly disciplined, along with being a very loyal American citizen.
I do think Orban and Fidesz has managed to create a little nationalist bubble in Hungary and that many Hungarians actually have a legacy fear of Russia as opposed to a hatred as do many Poles. The war in Ukraine was utilized very brilliantly by Orban in the election by promoting the immediate self interest of Hungarians as opposed to any long term vision of the evolution of Central Europe in relationship to the Putin mafia state as an expansive entity.
Please, Istvan, could you remind us of what Haraszti wrote on Eva’s views of DK?
He directly criticized Eva for parroting positions of DK without attribution and making it appear as if she was arguing based on her own logic and analysis. He was extremely sharp in his comments.
Eva actually did not engage in the discussion which was unlike her I thought at the time. Haraszti came close to calling Eva a shill for DK I thought.
Eva was a very intellectually aggressive person on the blog, but would also walk back some things when proven wrong afterwards. She did this for example with JC Juncker who she believed was going to be hard on Orban. Eva obviously had the ear of some people in the US Department of State and possibly the CIA too. Because she was a Democrat during times of Republican rule those relationships were obviously more complicated.
Istvan, having followed Eva’s input on Gyurcsany and DK, but not being aware of Haraszti’s comments at the time I find myself fully in agreement with him.
I could not understand her approach because she simply refused to acknowledge the obvious difficulties the DK and Gyurcsany continued to represent in the struggle to defeat Orban.
Thanks Istvan (Chicago), and of course I always appreciate Istvan’s replys (I do think his replys are sophisticated and reflect serious reading, still his conclusions tend to be naive in my opinion), and his efforts to maintain this blog.
I worked quite a lot for the opposition during the campaign. I think the campaign (as a machine/operation) was the best the opposition has mounted since at least 2006. Unfortunately Fidesz in the meantime moved on and perfected its machine (bacically it doesn’t do campaigning, beyond its propaganda, it just brings its voters to the booths), so the opposition is now where Fidesz was in 2002 or 2006. It’s simply not enough in today’s environment and the machine itself is just one element, messaging, leadership etc. also count and the opposition is behind Fidesz by orders of magnitude.
I never thought that a majority for the opposition was possible in 2022, but I was also surprised by the magnitude of the defeat.
We have to face that Hungary is simply much more advanced as an autocracy than anybody figured, and the propaganda is much more effective and sophisticated.
Especially outside Budapest there is no serious opposition. Period.
The “rural voter” (anybody outside Budapest, essentially) finds the opposition (any and all parties) alien, and Fidesz attractive, familiar, the default, the state itself.
The magnitude of the opposition’s alienation from the rural voters (whether educated or uneducated) cannot be overestimated, it’s staggering.
(Of course the election system makes the situation extremely difficult for the opposition ever to win, in rural districts a 30-40% point advantage for Fidesz is now not unheard of, when of course over 10% points a candidacy is considered “long shot”, basically impossible in most cases).
I totally think that current public discourse and situation is fascist. In Russia we have real fascism with people being killed and disappeared and imprisoned and so on.
In Hungary, there is less violence (for the time being) but otherwise it is now completely normal for Hungarians to blame Ukraine for its situation, rejoice on FB at news that children were killed, bash the US and praise Russia and so on.
The atmosphere is the same as in Russia only with less overt violence. This is exactly what the situation was in the 1930’s which was the basis for what happened in the 1940’s. Masses of people completely lack empathy and even are happy to see others suffering.
I also wonder what Eva would make of this situation, where the silver lining may be?
I don’t know but I am not optimistic: just because there will be economic difficulties Orban won’t be unseated.
First, the economic problem isn’t that gigantic (as in say Sri Lanka), and discontent people will have Mi Hazánk (Fidesz’ proxy party which can absorb the hard right voters who tend to strengthen in times of economic crises), so at worst in 2026 Orban will have a coalition with Mi Hazánk.
The advantage of Fidesz is so staggering outside Budapest and has been increasing organically for so long that it would be extremely unlikely to fall apart even if there is a very serious and long-term economic crisis (given the election system, Orban would literally need to lose in many rural district 30-50% of its current voter base for the opposition to win, when in fact its support has been increasing for 20 years.). These outcomes are inconceivable if you ever spent 15 minutes in rural districts canvassing.
It’s a real clusterfuck.
Orban doesn’t have to care about the “quality” of the laws. He just orders them to be amended if there is any problem. Law is simply a tool to stay in power. Since he is in power, he by definition managed his legal affiars well. He understood from the getgo that prosecution (and not the courts) and the police/state security are the keys. (Of course its also useful to own other branches of government, and he does own the constitutional court and the normal courts too, but prosecution is the key.). Propaganda is only a next step. The first is prosecution. Orban may not be hired by a white shoe law firm in New York (Sullivan & Cromwell, or Davis Polk, etc.) but he’s a very good lawyer and employs very good lawyers too. They never suffered any legal blow that had in any way impacted their endurance in power.
“Orban doesn’t have to care about the “quality” of the laws.”
????
It is terrible annoying to him being again and again told that he can’t even read his own constitution. Don’t try to convince anybody from the opposite, this is very clear if you look at his own outrageous reactions. He is permanently defeated in courts while he could have prevented from this bad press – which of course is only known to those reading independent media, but here we have another problem and here Orbán was indeed extremely successful, media control and brain washing. Of course the trials are not endangering his power, but even in a democracy with the rule of law this under comparable circumstances (won elections, formally functioning parliament….) only could be endangered by being jailed. And corrupting prosecution has nothing to do with being a good lawyer, this all mafia organsations do, from bribes to police, prosecutors, up to judges. And Orbán got caught with this interferrence, so he is neither a good lawyer nor a good criminal.
“OV is… nor a good criminal”?
OV sure ain’t like Robin Hood…
… more an illawyerly freebooter
PS: “good criminal” seems an oxymoron to me
Yes, I should have written successful. Good in the sense of doing well what he does. As only the bad thieves get caught. Orbán got caught and only bribes (in which form ever) prevent from prosecution.
Istvan, why are you upset by semantics, or a sentence that upsets you? The core message of Marty was quite clear to me, and a clean analysis of the situation in Hungary seen from his point of view.
The Viktor writes new “laws” every Saturday, publishes them on Sunday evening and then it is law, and everybody has to obey, independent of “quality”. He seems to have a clever team of lawyers who do the proposals, and what he likes is “law”, “amendment” or “decree”. Nothing new Marty is describing.
Many points in Marty´s analysis I agree with. The campaign of the Viktor was brilliant, “do you want peace or war”, do you want to be the victim of “Brussels”, ” do you want an experienced government who already has beaten many crises (like migrants, pandemic, Ferenc, Soros), or do you want an amateur?”, “do you want to pay for a war next door?”
The majority of the Hungarian not caring about anything else than themselves, who see conspiracies everywhere, who are not even able to be empathic, who need a Führer, who think that 5 kilograms of potatoes show that the Führer cares about them. These are the sad conclusions for me.
Yesterday, I had a “discussion” with someone who is proud to have voted every election for fidesz since 1990. I asked which part in the fidesz program convinced him this time. Answer “program nem kell.”
He didn´t read the program of the opposition. He agreed about the desolate state of the health care, and education. “But you know Brussels.” And this communist Medgyessy signed a contract with the EU that was very bad for Hungary. I can continue, but nem kell.
Where I disagree with Marty are his predictions, this evening we saw that not the whole of Europe is going autocratic. Even if there is a tendency in France that doesn´t mean a real right-wing majority exists.
Yes, Sunday night was nice. Macron of course has a big task ahead of him because his party is the single one relevant French centrist party (and its basically not a party but his campaign organization), and otherwise only extreme left and right parties exist in France.
Thank God Le Pen lost but she will try again and her party machine is getting better and better, her growth is organic. In fact, if Le Pen gets convicted it’s possible that a male Le Penist can win next time – Le Pen for sure lost a lot of voters because many French didn’t want to have a female president. But with the same message but a “better” candidate (and male) can easily win next time. Anyway, we have 5 years, which is good.
The problem with Orban is that he will be here 5 years from now and 10 years from now, he doesn’t have to care about being lonely now (and with Trump returning he will have a ton of US support, as the GOP dislikes the EU). Sooner or later Orban will have some extreme right/anti-Eu friends in power, he has all the time in the world.
The democrats have to win every time, the right-wing populists only once (to destroy the EU and inflict further damage).
I am not predicting anything beyond the fact that Orban is now impossible to get rid of and he won’t change, his goal is the same as Putin’s: to destroy the EU and NATO. Perhaps by a thousands cuts, or by a war of attrition, but this is the clear goal and he won’t stop as long as he breathes.
It is the constant praise. Good here strong there. A good politician wouldn’t need to create laws that are that terribly bad designed, not even if we reject the content it can be designed waterproof. Not doing so is just a sign of incompetence. And Marty’s complete ignorance concerning the rural population. We don’t need to discuss that many are brainwashed and not basing their decisions (on facts. But for sure Marty is wrong that rural people don’t care about health care or education. Most are just prevented from taking a decision based on arguments and facts. Of course you have the true believers, but don’t forget the many who stayed at home, since elections don’t change anything (this is not the question whether in this system elections can change power, but about rejection to try at least) and even more who search the reasons of their problems in refugees, Brussels, or Soros instead of putting the information together and get to the point that it is not the enemy from the outside, but that their enemy is sitting in the Várszínház. Yes, you have a share of voters that is convinced of that ideology Orbán preaches. This type of voters you find everywhere. And in France a lot of disappointed people voted for Le Pen and it is in democracies a typical effect that the disappointed vote against the government. Just that in France not as long time Socialists and Gaulleists are competing in the 2nd round, but a democrat and a radical 3 times now in this century. Whether a democrat from the left of centre or from the right of centre win makes a difference of course, but doesn’t form the end of democracy, the opposite is true a change once in a while is typical for democracies.
Marty had a single correct prediction among lord mayor of Budapest, US president, 2 senators from Georgia, elections in Hungary, anti-gay referendum, French president and not to forget the elections in Slovenia that threw out of office Orbán’s friend Janša yesterday as well. 1 : 7 since October 2019.
And the terrible treaty with the EU? 2 important things for your future discussions with true believers: The EU admission was completely negotiated by Orbán, while Horn applied and Medgyessy got the admission. The admission is done by aligning all relevant segments of politics with the EU. One by one are negotiated and closed. So MSZP SZDSZ couldn’t do anything, but got the okay from Brussels and the member states. And the Treaty on the EU is the same anyway for every country.
BTW there were already calls to block Marty.
As far as predictions concerned, they are difficult, especially about the future, that is what I wrote many times already to Marty. And predictions are not a basis for a discussion in my opinion. One can describe a development like with Le Pen from the past until now, but to predict that this automatically continues is not of any worth in a discussion.
About the praising of Orban; fact is, that we have an exceptional situation in Hungary built up over years. Of course, not the Viktor alone did this, but he gathered professionals around him.
This article in the 444 from today shows the developments since the mid 2000nds quite well as far as I know, and it shows the professionality how this regime built up a force that is almost unbeatable in a national sense.
https://444.hu/tldr/2022/04/25/legyozhetetlen-orban-viktor-partallami-kampanygepezete
The system is built on election falsification, the campaigns on hate, fear and primitive mantras. And it fucking works as we have seen in the elections.
As I was starting reading prof. Baloghs blog, I once proposed in my nativity to start to educate the rural people with facts on a decentralized basis, having no clou how to organise this.
It seems it could work when local initiatives are developed.
https://nepszava.hu/3153928_valasztas-2022-fidesz-ellenzek-zahony
https://nepszava.hu/3154304_jambor-andras-a-terepmunkaban-azt-vegeztuk-el-ami-a-kotelezo-lett-volna-mindenkinek
It shows in these examples that people can be influenced by information. It is a slave job I think, and it needs a lot of local initiatives from the people living there. As you wrote, you won´t get them all, but information is necessary to make a choice in the elections based on facts. And information is also necessary for people to understand the reality, and be interested in changes to get out of the shit.
I am voting against banning Marty, his habit of arguing on the base of predictions I absolutely reject. His ranting I hate. His “Zweckpessimismus” (I know this word doesn´t exist, only Zweckoptimismus) is boring and repeating itself all the time. But I think he invested time and effort to promote the opposition, as I did in my limited possibilities as a foreigner. And many times, his information or judgement is to the point.
And thanks for the information about the EU treaties.
Did Fidesz only have a programme? Correct me if I’m wrong but from what I gather, there wasn’t any in this election.
FIDESZ a program? They hadn’t any, not only none in 2022, also in 2018, 2014, 2010…. Well, robbing the country, but even that they didn’t write down.
I do not personally have a high opinion of lawyers worldwide. To a degree like most people holding commercial investments they are a necessary evil to protect property rights that suck off money. But on the other hand non-commercial lawyers doing civil rights law are often really incredibly important within the context of market economic systems as are lawyers protecting consumers from profit driven corruption. Military lawyers are a major problem and can justify just about anything under the Geneva Convention, Young military lawyers who serve to pay back scholarships for law school over in the USA are another thing altogether.
“I do not personally have a high opinion of lawyers worldwide.”
Haha, I agree, but don’t try arguing with Marty about this!!!
Oh, I really agree! Just that this is based on moral considerations. The praises of Marty are about the question that a good lawyer is applying law or in the very case of Orbán making law successfully, definitely not about the question of being a morally correct working lawyer. Most immoral lawyers can be very successful and this is a good lawyer according to Marty. Obviously he never heard about that lawyers mustn’t do everything for their clients, because they have to abide the law higher than the interest of their clients, who come directly thereafter. At least as things are legally defined in Hungary. Just Marty is also completely in error about Orbán. Besides not even knowing what moral means Orbán is also an extremely incompetent lawyer.
Istvan, when you are in trouble, you want your lawyer to win the case (by whatever legal means) and not just him being able to write a peer reviwed article in an Oxford Law Review.
That’s just the nature of the thing, you get paid not for being nice, but for getting the deal done.
It is clear you never had serious legal problems those who had understand that need for a tough, back stabbing lawyer.
I am not like that (I met these kinds of lawyers only a few times as I rarely participate in contentious maters) but they are useful.
That’s just the nature of the business which you simply don’t understand because you don’t get the logic of this industry. It’s a separate world, a separate subculture with its inner logic – just like the world of policemen or miners or farmers.
Now you hit the point! LEGAL means!
…. but who is to decide on whether particular circumstances count as “necessary for national security reasons”… in autocratic/hybrid regimes it is the regime only… the ‘state of exception’ has become the means of governing in most of those regime forms. The Italian philosopher Agamben (drawing on Carl Schmitt) writes about this and his work is instructive as ‘exception’ places the regime leader (as sovereign) outside all of the checks and balances that apply in ‘normal’ democratic politics. Powerful and potentially dangerous stuff… and not at all merely the paperwork of prudent lawyers…to imagine that is to fall into a perilous trap.
looking at the near future, the “zoo” will host this year’s CPAC conference on May 15th:
Why Is CPAC Having a Conference Next Month in Budapest? | The New Republic
Certain legal preparations could be necessary for tightening security around the event.
… interesting article, thanks for posting, Carlson is quite correct in saying that Hungary is a small country with a lot of lessons for the rest of us… anyway, the circus is certainly coming to town…
Small addition: This was planned in the weekend before the elections, but postponed through Putin’s war and Orbán’s refusal to condemn Putin.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said today that while Ukraine is happy to welcome U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to Kyiv on Sunday, he hopes the American officials will be able to offer more support against the Russian invasion.
“They should not come here with empty hands,” Zelensky said at a news conference Saturday in a subway station in Kyiv. “We are expecting specific things and specific weapons.”
I do not think that President Zelensky fully understands the damage a statement like the one he made can do. The US to taxpayers are funding billions of dollars in weapons for Ukraine now. Believe me they can turn on Ukraine quick, just like they have in the past on foreign aid. Zelensky has some showmanship that also can be interpreted by your average American who with a median income in the United States of about $56,000. People earning a $50,000 salary take home about $39,129 each year, which comes to $3,261 per month.
Zelensky unfortunately seems so used to talking to elites internationally that he is disconnected from the US taxpayers who are paying for a war effort a world away from them. I am not surprised no one in the US government wanted to respond to Zelensky‘s statement when asked to do so by the US media today.
I can understand the American obsession at grass roots with their taxes being spent abroad. In this instance it is unfortunately not appreciated amongst them what this particular problem is really about. There is a corresponding and equally understandable desire to avoid armed conflict in which the NATO countries might get involved. Regrettably, unless it is swiftly understood by all the grass roots in the West now that both are sooner or later inevitable their countries will soon reach the point where the decision has been taken out of their hands.
To test this, please, colleagues offer me answer to this question. Please provide an estimation that you would firmly rely on that defines the extent of Putin’s territorial ambitions? Clearly, we are beyond the stage where we can assert he has none. I have tested this many times in the last few weeks. Not one person was able to provide any answer.
The next test is this. A Putin victory in Ukraine is likely to encourage or restrict such territorial ambitions? The answer to this is obvious.
To answer Istvan’s point about Zelensky’s requests for more military help, that is based on the answers to both my questions. If the American grass roots tax payers risk a Putin victory in Ukraine they will face the same issue down the line pretty soon when another country/nation is put to the sword. That then maybe the real Pearl Harbor moment.
Maybe Zelensky does not understand American grass roots tax payer concerns. I think he has rather more immediate problems and leaves dealing with the grass roots in US to Biden who, presumably does know how to deal with them.
Zelensky will either be in exile or dead without the level of support the USA is providing to Ukraine currently. Most American taxpayers can’t find Ukraine on a blank map so understanding the realities which you are discussing Robert is beyond many if not most of the taxpayers here in the USA. For the moment because our media coverage here including even on the pro-Trump outlets like Fox news focuses on Russian killing of Ukrainian civilians there is fortunately a lot of support for Ukraine. But really the actual costs for this support has yet to be paid.
Our media here in the USA is uniformly so pro-Ukrainian that it does not even question the absurdly low casualty figures being put out for Ukraine’s own losses so far. But it is being estimated outside the public view by think tanks and the CIA I am very sure. Many men in their 40s and 50s are now in active combat with the Ukrainian Army not just its National Guard forces. For propaganda purposes Zelensky really does not discuss that reality, but as this war extends into the future this will become more and more of a problem.
So for example on March 13, President Zelensky claimed that the Ukrainian military had suffered around 1,300 fatalities. Earlier in March Russia estimated that its military operation had killed 2,870 Ukrainian troops. US officials estimated in March that between 2,000 and 4,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and would not even guess at the number so wounded or psychologically impaired that they were not fit for combat. We do know that many Ukrainian civilian hospitals have been converted to military hospitals and in some cases the civilians have been moved to NATO nations. There are without question more Russian dead and wounded than there are Ukrainians, but there are many more age appropriate Russians to be thrown into the meat grinder than there are Ukrainians.
Effectively most of this military aid is coming from existing stockpiles here in the USA, from places like the Rock Island Arsenal where I was a reserve Army officer for years. Those stockpiles are being replaced with new weapons that are actually much more expensive in huge quantities (see for example https://www.csis.org/analysis/latest-aid-package-ukraine-major-escalation-support ).
I doubt the US public understands that the massive military aid being provided to Ukraine will all be replaced in the stockpiles with arms that will cost far more than those being replaced and will be of course much more advanced. Russia will be faced with a massive problem too, it will have to replace stocks of all sorts of conventional weapons and upgrade those replacements to be competitive with the USA. That will be the upside of this hidden conventional arms race which is happening right now, it will help financially destroy Russia and creates a battlefield laboratory testing systems in practice.
As an example of the bullshit being put out by Ukraine’s military we get this story today https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3466131-ponad-80-poranenih-ukrainskih-vijskovih-povertautsa-u-strij.html . The story claims “…it should be understood that this is a huge victory for Ukrainian military medicine, the extremely high percentage of wounded is returning to service – it is more than 80 percent.” Even the US Army could make no such claim as that see https://www.army.mil/article/173808/survival_rates_improving_for_soldiers_wounded_in_combat_says_army_surgeon_general we generally only discussed survival rates. Now even if we count every solider treated in the field for any type of wound its still hard to imagine that the claim made by the Ukrainians is reality based. Nor is there any claim by the Ukrainians that these soldiers return to combat, only service which could well be in a non-combat role.
This article https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30905323/ indicates significant numbers of US Army soldiers who saw combat in the middle eastern wars experienced mental health issues that made them unfit for combat duty, apparently according to the Ukrainians their troops are so brave its not an issue, or are they just putting soldiers back in combat regardless of their mental health conditions because they have no option but to do so?
Istvan, I am grateful for the details you have provided. When it comes to the next phases of the conventional arms race I hope it will prove economically as ruinous to Russia as the arms race that Reagan used to drive the Soviet Union to disintegrate. For this to happen it seems to me clear that the US and NATO must do everything to prevent Ukraine’s defeat. With or without spelling out the details that thanks to you I now understand, Biden should explain to the voters why we as the free world need to support Ukraine to victory, now.
I believe that (as you may have gathered) Ukraine’s failure to win this conflict means that apart from the horrendous suffering their people must endure, we are all in the West exposed to an existential threat by Russia. That is the cumulative result of Russian military aggression and the absence of a clearly defined and reliable Russian military and political objective beyond the current conflict.
Germany is also sending “old weapons” to Poland and/or Slovenia and will buy new ones.
So The Eastern states can send their old Russian weapons to Ukraine – they know how to use them.
And now for the good news:
Putin’s and Orbán’s friend Marine LePen has lost the elections in France.
Many people were afraid …
So the chances for that “powerful” extreme right wing club of Orbán, LePen, Salvini, AfD and other friends of Putin to influence the EU will probably be zero.
And there’s more:
Slovenia’s right wing Janez Janša also lost to the left/liberal Robert Golob.
Fidestniks will be very sad …
In Orbán’s case, I doubt if it causes much more than a shrug of the shoulders.
Although flirts with EU far-right party leaders, and supporting them economically, adds some propaganda points to his home image as an internationally important figure, it’s the “filthy few” – the heavies in the mafia-state law mongering trade (some call it good lawyering) – who really count.
The May 15th conference/closet dictator show, will add a few back-badges to that image.
Well, the unanimous vote in Hungary’s Art 7 procedure came closer yesterday. Of course it was pretty clear that the Slovenians were throwing out their government, since 2 of the coalition partners collapsed already before the elections. But this is not the only development. Again and again signs are heard that Poland is solving its problems with the EU, slowly and step by step not to admit being on the wrong path that long. There is a reason why against Poland no rule of law procedure was started! PiS is still loud, but behind closed doors ended the worst cases already or are on the way to do so. And they are abandoning Orbán, just as the entire V 4. It looks to me that Poland has chosen to play according to the EU rules while using all freedom they give. Better a bit less power and a beloved member of the club than a little more power and in ever deeper problems. Obviously too late for Orbán.
I have no doubt either, that the long V4 honeymoon looks finished now that the Poles seem to seek a less conflict-seeking relationship to EU, as a positively reinforced response.
It may be hoping for too much, but I wouldn’t mind if the presently opposed attitudes of Hungary and Poland evolve on Poland’s part, to a point where some of the expected EU meat balls missing from Orbán’s bowl, drop into the Polish bowl – There could even be a chance that this would start more Hungarians thinking – But again, that might just be hoping for too much.
You are completely right, with Poland starting to follow EU law Hungary remains lost, but the EU can be saved. True believers won’t be impressed by convicting the Orbán regime and Hunxit would be a step closer, but honestly I don’t expect to see a democratic Hungary during my lifetime again.
“Zelensky unfortunately seems so used to talking to elites internationally that he is disconnected from the US taxpayers who are paying for a war effort a world away from them. I am not surprised no one in the US government wanted to respond to Zelensky‘s statement when asked to do so by the US media today.”
Well, he’s certainly not a battle-hardened, career politician and I think will always demand more and more support from the international community until the Russians have left Ukraine – sometimes it seems like he is responding emotionally to events rather than taking hard-nosed strategic decisions. I find this quite understandable and in some ways refreshing, although probably not a recipe for long-term success if he keeps pissing off his closest allies like this, but the guy must be under a huge strain as well…
Bad news for Orban’s Hungary Janša is losing influence just like Le Pen. Kurz and Babis are gone now only Putin and Lukashenko remain as “friends”. You can’t choose your relatives, but you can choose your friends, right?
What was now with the thirteenth month pension is there already?
Certainly good news for Europe.
However, Orban will not change course and his underlings (just as most of his voters) are firmly pro-Russian, they can’t just suddenly get to like the West.
At most we can expect some peacock dance so that the EU could finally disburse the EUR billions (it doesn’t matter if its less than sought for or its not free money but loans – the bottom line it’s money to be spent) from which Orban can buy his votes by spending EUR 10bn just before the next elections (and operate its propaganda machinery).
By the way I have yet to meet a blue collar worker who supported Ukraine (essentially all of them are staunch pro-Russians, ie. Orbanists who like ‘strong leaders’ and hate ‘effeminate Western liberal weaklings’).
It will be sad, but this is what the propaganda is for. It will smoothly sell Orban’s “successes” with Uzbekh, Ethiopian, Pakistani etc. politicians (as well as with Trumpist GOP politicians).
It’s all just a show but the propaganda machinery is unparalleled, so it will work.
Very few people here are pro-Russia, they don’t even want to use the Russian language, which was the only foreign language they learned “back then”. I think the potential voters have turned against Orban and against the opposition. Some of them because Ferry told the truth. But in a country where educators don’t understand why they don’t earn anything, you can’t expect smarter students or e.g. lawyers, professors, doctors et cetera et cetera.
The others because they are disconnected from society or politically unaddressed. The 25% Orban voters are quite a lot when only 50% go to vote. I know the numbers are not exact but that is not the point …
President Zelensky following the near secret meeting with the US Sec of State and Defense did issue a statement tanking the USA for its military aid during the Russian invasion. Biden appeared to have been exceedingly pissed off by President Zelensky‘s PR conference statements about military aid he made on Saturday so he made no statement what so ever.
The White House press office did release data that day showing the US had provided $3.2 billion in weapons to Ukraine since the Russian invasion began. Another $300 million was promised at the meeting in Kiev. The US Sec of Defense admitted to the media that the US now had a goal of strategically weakening the Russian military through attrition to prevent further military adventurism by Putin. I totally agree with him and hope the leadership of the EU can come to the same conclusion.
We are shipping over numerous 155 mm towable artillery pieces to Ukraine. They will be replaced here and for our forces in NATO by the far more expensive Paladin M109A6 is a cannon artillery system with self-propelled howitzer. In modern warfare artillery has to be moved constantly to avoid being targeted by counter battery fire using radar and sound detection systems.
US artillery crews practice moving and repositioning. It’s an ancient art form of war. Going completely with the Paladin M109A6 is the logical evolution for the USA.
The exact quote from General Austin the US Sec of Defense was: “We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine,”
I have to assume it is the official position of the US government and the exact wording was approved.
Clearly Orban can’t agree with this goal and maintain its happy relationship with Russia. I hope the USA will push NATO to adopt General Austin’s statement as a policy goal and force Orban to deal with it.
Scholz has not exactly covered himself with glory. His reasons for hesitating to help with heavy weapons are in the fog. I don’t know what argument could be put forward in the future against possible accusations that we Germany had abandoned the Ukrainians. “I was afraid?” or so … back in 1956 in Budapest many Europeans would have liked to intervene then the political situation was different … Today the biggest mistake is not to provide heavy weapons. Putin will not stop until he runs out of material and that must be taken care of.
So MTI today attempted to explain to the Hungarian public what took place in the meeting between Ukrainian President Zelensky and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin (https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2022/04/washington-hetszazmillio-dollaros-katonai-tamogatast-nyujt-kijevnek). It purposely did not disclose General Austin’s statement to the media in Poland that has been repeated internationally stating: “We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.” The MTI article was released well after General Austin’s statement appeared in the western media. Instead it cited Austin as making a statement to reporters that Ukraine could win the war if it had good military equipment and enough international support which is far more limited in its implications for Hungarian foreign policy than Austin’s statement on the US policy goal of militarily weakening Russia.
The statement by General Austin was not surprisingly also attacked by the entire Russian media this morning. Timur Fomenko, a political analyst in the Russian media actually went so far as to say today: “After spending the first month of the Russia-Ukraine conflict calling for Russia to withdraw, it is now increasingly apparent that the US and its allies have changed course and are set on an ambition to drag out the conflict to impose as much damage on Moscow as possible, in particular by intensifying weapon supplies, and providing training and intelligence for the Ukrainian Army. Although it was, of course, Moscow that made the choice to initiate the conflict in the first place, it has always been abundantly clear that the US viewed the situation in absolutist terms. Washington opposed any kind of prior compromise between Russia and Ukraine that may have helped avoid hostilities, which encouraged Zelensky’s overconfidence in refusing to negotiate. The same situation is panning out now. Washington does not want the war to end in a swift settlement whereby Ukraine makes concessions to Russia, because the ideal outcome is to ensure Moscow takes as much damage as possible, which means that a war of increasing escalation is in fact in the US’ interests.”
Fomenko of course is using a classical Stalinist propaganda tactic of accusing nations it is invading of being the actual aggressor against Mother Russia just as was done in justification of the Russian invasion of Hungary in 1956 or Czechoslovakia in 1968. In both Hungarian and Czechoslovakian invasions those governments being overthrown were turned into complete proxies of the USA as part of Russia’s justification process for its actions.
Hungary is already in a dilemma over General Austin so clearly stating our ultimate war goal in relationship to the war in Ukraine. Effectively MTI is already hiding the truth from the Hungarian people, Orban and Fidesz are not fighting for peace in Ukraine they are supporting in a most backhanded criminal manner the subjugation of that country to Russia in providing no military aid to Ukraine at all.
The Guardian says it clearly:
The EU’s longest-serving head of government, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, is a problem. The good news is that the Hungarian strongman keeps losing support in central Europe. On the day of the French election, Slovenia voted out another of Orbán’s populist allies, Janez Janša. And Orbán badly needs EU funds that are currently being held back. So Macron, Scholz and colleagues should just have the gumption and guts to tell him exactly where he can put his threatened veto of further sanctions on Putin’s Russia.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/25/emmanuel-macron-europe-french-president-eu
Let’s just hope that it all turns out this way.
Personally I just can’t understand how any sane person can be on Russia’s side here and luckily most Germans feel the same – just the few AfD idiots support Putin.
Rather OT:
Just read in my local German newspaper (online of course) that of the French people living right now in the county of my hometown Tübingen more than 90% voted of Macron!
Orban is a Putin supporter and stays so I believe because if he ditched Putin his punishment would be very painful. Putin knows all that Orban has been up to and what his plans are. Difficult balancing act but quintessentially Hungarian.
Good news Wolfi regarding the Orban regime loss of support.
This evening in Russia on Bolshaya Igra (“Big Game”) show on Russia’s Channel One TV program there was an interview with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov where he said “The risks now are considerable” of nuclear war with the West. Reuters’ translation of one particular part of his interview reads: “NATO, in essence, is engaged in a war with Russia through a proxy and is arming that proxy. War means war.” The Russian Sputnik news translated another part of the Lavrov interview as stating “I emphasize once again: we have a feeling that the West wants Ukraine to continue to fight, to continue, as it seems to them, to wear out, exhaust the Russian army and the Russian military-industrial complex — this is an illusion.”
I think Lavrov was responding directly to General Austin’s honest comment about current US policy: “We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.” My reading is Lavrov for all his claims of wanting to avoid World War III that he is now actually saying it’s an illusion that Russia can be broken as a military power, because if Russia has to it will nuke the West before facing defeat. I do have to agree with Lavrov that the risks of nuclear war are considerable, they are considerable because Russia has repeatedly threatened nuclear war against the west over Ukraine. I can only hope that some Russian Generals dispose of Putin before he can destroy the world and get thousands more young Russians, and Ukrainians killed in his mad war.
I personally would rather not be incinerated by a Russian ICBM nuke if at all possible to be honest, just for the record. But the west can not just abandon Ukraine based of what is now nuclear terrorism on the part of Russia either. I doubt Putin will spare his good friend Orban if the nukes start flying either.
I think that it is Lavrov who poured oil on the fire. His regime starts a naked and unprovoked war of occupation against a neighbour it wants to incorporate in its empire. NATO is over cautious and should step up military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The choice for NATO is very limited. It cannot allow Ukraine to be defeated. There is, obviously, a risk of escalation, including use of nuclear weapons. That risk must be run. The alternative is potentially more catastrophic.
Whenever Orbàn visits Putin, he takes the risk of sitting still on a trapdoor over a shark-tank, while his friend at he other end of the long table has a finger on the button.
At home, NATO membership ensures his security.
Yet he talks about neutrality towards Russia, knowing that if there’s a knock on the eastern door, it means collection of protection-money.
I have missed your cartoons Michael! Thank you for your comments as well.
Good to know you are with us drusza!
I love this toon as well!
I have made two posts. The first was deleted the second was held for approval and then deleted. Can I please know why?
Check the spelling of your email address. Comments of new contributors always need approval and leaving out letters makes the system think your are new. After 1st approval there is regularly no moderation needed any more.
Last night I learned a lot more about the coming artillery war in Ukraine from a retired officer who was with an Artillery Command located at the U.S. Army Garrison Wiesbaden, Germany. From what I learned the Ukrainians are receiving 72 155mm howitzers and tow trucks to tow them and at least144,000 artillery rounds (including an unknown number of the M982 Excalibur artillery projectiles which is high-precision guided artillery shell). Each of these field artillery pieces cost about $2.5 million and the Excalibur shells cost about $60,000 each are made at the Rock Island arsenal where I was an officer for years.
The US is also providing detection radar systems to locate Russian artillery and specialized drones that will also be used to locate Russian massed artillery formations to destroy them (the Phoenix Ghost tactical unmanned aerial systems). The US began training Ukrainian artillery crews on the 155mm howitzers weeks ago and are giving them a shortened version of the normal course US crews get. There was a lot of concern over the quality of the Ukrainian officers who will be commanding these howitzers in the discussion last night, it’s an unknown factor.
During our discussion it was unclear if all the 155s being provided to the Ukrainians were all the more advanced M777A2 variant is equipped with a Digital Fire Control System (DFCS) that includes an inertial navigation unit with Global Positioning System backup, allowing it to self-locate. Our assumption is that they were getting the advanced version. My own trained crews under my command could emplace the piece in three minutes and displace it in three minutes which will be critical for Ukrainian crews facing Russian counter battery fire. This has to be practiced extensively as does maintaining the howitzer in the field. The minimum crew size is 5 soldiers it weighs about 10,000 pounds and is made mostly of titanium alloy. My crews were trained to fire up to four rounds per minute.
In the US Army a Field Artillery Officer takes a basic course that includes leadership skills, tactics, maintenance and operational aspects of weapons and vehicles used in a Field Artillery platoon. There is a high level of testing done of these officers who will command 200 to 300 Field Artillery Soldiers. Hopefully the Ukrainian Field Artillery Officers will be ready for what is in front of them. When I became an adviser to the South Vietnamese Army’s field artillery units and put into immediate combat in 1972, their officers lacked many skills and as a newly commissioned officer was actually commanding higher ranking Vietnamese officers. It is my impression that no US Army officers or NATO officers will be allowed to advise Ukrainians in combat, so the burden on these Ukrainian Field Artillery Officers is going to be huge and they will be learning under fire.
It became much more apparent after my discussions last night to me why the Russians are getting nervous about their offensive and want to destroy rail links to the Ukrainian front lines in the Donbas. This offensive could become a major bloodbath using high tech weapons in mass. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s comments on Russian TV reflect the possibility the Russians are contemplating using tactical nuclear weapons against the more advanced artillery Ukraine is even now getting. If that happens we are truly on the edge of nuclear war.
By the way nothing I posted above is secret, some of the information has been published in the Washington Post and elsewhere. What is interesting is that NATO and the US may have moved weapons systems into place into Ukraine already, but discuss them as if the systems are still being deployed. There are very complex logistical games being played here by NATO and US military intelligence.
Today Britain’s armed forces minister James Heappey played down comments by Russian foreign minister
Sergei Lavrov on the possible use of nuclear weapons in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, dismissing them as “bravado”. I am unclear why that conclusion is being drawn, but I hope that it is correct.
Heappey also said it was completely legitimate for Ukraine to strike Russian logistics lines and fuel supplies and he acknowledged the weapons the international community was now providing had the range to be used in Russia. I agree with Heappey on that issue, but somehow I doubt Putin is in agreement with that conclusion.
US CIA Director William Burns delivered a speech just on April 14th at Georgia Tech university where he said: “Given the potential desperation of President Putin and the Russian leadership, given the setbacks that they’ve faced so far, militarily, none of us can take lightly the threat posed by a potential resort to tactical nuclear weapons or low-yield nuclear weapons.” (quoted in https://www.rferl.org/a/31804539.html ) Which is a radically different take than the one provided by Heappey.
It should also be noted that MTI provided its article on the Sergei Lavrov comments on the potential for nuclear war with NATO (https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2022/04/lavrov-a-harmadik-vilaghaboru-kitoresenek-veszelye-realis). It presents Lavrov’s comments as opposing using tactical nuclear weapons and presents Lavrov’s TV interview as being pro-peace and a warning against nuclear war apparently coming from NATO of which Hungary is still part of.
This passage from the MTI article is interesting (my translation) “Lavrov also confirmed that Moscow considers Western weapons given to Ukraine to be a legitimate target. The fact that NATO members are sending such weapons to Ukraine also means that NATO is essentially involved in the war with Ukraine.” The Reuters news agency presentation of this statement by Lavrov in its own English translation reads: “NATO, in essence, is engaged in a war with Russia through a proxy and is arming that proxy. War means war.” That version is one hell of a lot different than what MTI gave the Hungarian public today.
Different alright, but what is the original text?
The original text is the one from Reuters, according to their article it came from a transcription of the Russian TV interview. The MTI article is not in quotations, but rather it’s their paraphrase of the original quote by Lavrov. I doubt seriously that Reuters would create such a direct quote. MTI was caught by Eva several time over the years creating false statements. For example https://hungarianspectrum.org/2011/07/08/senator-benjamin-l-cardins-statement-on-the-hungarian-situation-and-what-mti-made-of-it/
Eva in this post carefully compared the MTI version and the original statement to show how MTI transformed it.
I learned from Eva to seek out original statements when reading MTI articles to see how they are changed by the press service. Really very few of the readers or TV viewers of MTI based Hungarian language reports do this, it’s just too complex for most people to do.
Oh by the way Eva was so skilled that she even picked up word choices used by MTI when translating statements into Hungarian. That is well beyond my own abilities to be honest. I am sure someone like our friend Tappanch has that level of skill, I do not that’s for sure.
MTI must have a reference of some kind to the recent NATO summit at Ramstein, which the Hungarian defense minister attended.
The most interesting news I read coming out of the NATO meeting was Germany, whose government has come under pressure after refusing Ukrainian pleas for heavy weapons, announced it would now send “Gepard” light tanks with anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine, my guess is it has already happened.
Assuming the Russian offensive uses massive artillery and missile assaults the Ukrainians will need many replacement tanks and armoured personnel carriers. The German commitment could be valuable in the fight that is developing and help prevent a Russian attempt to encircle heavily fortified Ukrainian positions in the country’s east.
To move infantry quickly APCs and light tanks will be critical in moving troops to prevent the classic Russian Stalingrad encirclement tactics they use over and over again.
Yes, one good thing is that all parties in Germany now agree on helping Ukraine, except of course the so called Left aka Putin’s a***lickers. However some fascists agree with them, also good to know.
The present reports of “mysterious fires” and severed Russian supply lines suggest that the Ukrainians have studied the tactics of Allied resistance during WW2. Specific training of a few operatives and locally dropped supplies made it very a strong weapon.
I am reading your comments regarding military details -about the Putin war- on a regular basis as you are far better informed than myself. I may not always reply, but rest assured, I enjoy reading your comments. Thanks Istvan.
Dear Host Istvan, please see below. I would appreciate a response obviously because I need to be guided if there is a rule I transgressed, so I don’t again. Please.
“Robert
April 26, 2022 14:06
I have made two posts. The first was deleted the second was held for approval and then deleted. Can I please know why?”
Robert, that happened quite often on Èva’s blog too. It might have something to do with your browser settings.
I do not think there is a problem there.
However the missing response from our host is giving rise to concern. Is he is charge? If not, who?
I wonder Istvan why you cannot tell us why my two posts have been removed? If I breached the rules I would like to know. Alternatively it is because you don’t agree, which is not a valid reason, is it?
István has probably been busy with something else for a time. I’m 100 percent sure he hasn’t censored you for disagreeing with him
I am confident that he probably hadn’t. It would be great to hear this from our host, especially if there has been an unwitting breach by me of the rules
This article in Magyar Nemzet https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2022/04/szijjarto-peter-magyarorszag-gazellatasa-tovabbra-is-biztonsagban-van-video indicates that Bulgaria will allow Russian natural gas to flow on to Hungary even though Bulgaria is being cut off for refusing to pay for the gas in rubles. I honestly think Bulgaria should shut down the pipe line completely at this point. Effectively Russia is now in a full scale economic war against NATO nations in an attempt to break the back of support and arms flows to Ukraine. As Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the other day, “NATO, in essence, is engaged in a war with Russia through a proxy…” so we all really know where this is going now, no more dancing around the issue for the Russians.
We are all going to be suffering, over here in the USA too with inflation and the incredible amount we are spending on supporting Ukraine both with arms and financial assistance. Right now the vast majority of Republicans in the USA are solidly in support of breaking the back of Putin and are willing to spend as much as possible to do so and most Democrats are too. As long as Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Zelensky does not over reach with his attempts to get ever more armaments in a way perceived over here as arrogant by the much of the population here the money and arms will continue.
Only a handful of left Democrats are raising any issues about the money going into the US military which is going to increase radically in the next year. Trump is being silent now on Putin, I am sure the Republican governors like Gov Abbott (Texas) and Gov DeSantis (Florida) who may take on Trump in the primaries will use his past ass kissing of Putin in the debates.
Now if Putin should order a tactical nuclear attack very close to the Polish border or across it and NATO is forced to respond things get very complex. I know US Army officers who were involved in secret war game simulations under the Obama administration when Ashton Carter was Sec of Defense. In that simulation the Russians used tactical nuke against an unnamed Baltic state, the question posed was how to respond. There was a huge debate in the National Security Council about the response, and time pressure was of course added to the simulation along with sleep deprivation. Many of the civilians policy people wanted to respond with a significant conventional weapons attack on Russian forces, but the Department of Defense argued it had to be a tactical nuclear response against Russian forces. Russians had to die and by a nuke. Ultimately the National Security Council opted to use tactical nukes, but not against the Russians directly, rather against Belarus’ military forces. President Obama did not participate in the simulation according to what I have read and been told, he was made totally aware of the decision and never made a comment on it that has been recorded.
It should also be noted NATO was excluded from the simulation, all power for unleashing the nukes was to be made within the US National Security Council. The stories I heard about this were largely verified by a book written by Fred M Kaplan titled “The bomb: Presidents, Generals, and the Secret History of Nuclear War.” One of the verified participants in that simulation was none other than our current Sec of State Antony Blinken he apparently did not agree with either a conventional or tactical nuclear response according to rumors.
It is a horrible idea to imagine nuclear weapons being used but I think the West would have to react using them if Putin uses them in Eastern Europe.
If the West wouldn’t react that way Putin would surely say to his general:
See, the West is afraid – so now we can continue with our “special military operation” without fearing any counterattack.
Following the media and the Russian statements it seems obviously to me that Putin and his generals are totally crazy – we are allowed to invade and kill but if anyone reacts and fights back he’s a war criminal!
The only good news there is that even countries and politicians which wanted to cooperate with Russia now have to admit that Putin and his gang are just mad criminals. Some day they will be deposed of – or the world will end in a nuclear catastrophe …
As Istvan explained this topic has been covered in the National Security Council and resolved. They came to the only possible conclusion: retaliate like with like
But of course Putin doesn’t want to accept this logic.
He and his generals (and maybe a majority of Russians and their a**lickers in the West) are still telling us:
We are just doing a special operation which includes killing anyone who fights against our brave soldiers …
And that is a war which we cannot lose so we have to counter with nuclear weapons!
When discussing this with friends I transferred this into normal life:
Let’s assume a guy attacks you, hurts you and wants to take your money. Then a friend of yours arrives to help you and tries to overpower the criminal who screams:
That’s not correct – I’ll have to retaliate and get my gangster friends who will kill you all!
Good illustration.
The question is, how credible is the threat? Clearly for the National Security Council it was credible enough to have spent time deciding on the response.
Just as everything with this deranged tyrant no person can be confident of what he might do next. The invasion of Ukraine is already a sign of having taken leave of his senses. He clearly never asked two crucial questions but if he did he did not arrive at the correct answers.
The first question is, what if I don’t get a quick result and Ukraine digs in with NATO assistance on a massive scale?
The second is, assuming I succeed eventually how will I be able to absorb a huge and hostile country with everyone against me?
And maybe a third question, how am I going to restore credibility with the international community and over what period?
The correct answer to any one of the questions would have stopped him making the move to invade,
We should not count on him being deposed and replaced by a more rational leader. The likely course is the exact opposite.
Reuters published a series of stunning photos of Russian war dead across Ukraine and wrecked tanks https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/russias-military-suffers-toll-from-its-u-idUSRTS6TMLO . Of course the Ukrainians will not allow western reporters to see their own similar nightmares.
War is hell for all participants and after the Battle for An Loc in South Vietnam in 1972 most of us who saw the massive number dead north Vietnamese infantrymen and tankers in the streets of the city were just stunned by it. Normally the communist forces quickly removed their dead to avoid body counts, in that situation there almost no North Vietnamese forces left alive to do so. The worst part was seeing body parts scattered and the stench of death. It never leaves you, ever.
Putin’s comments made yesterday in St Petersburg yesterday made big news in the West today. Really they were not new at all, basically a repeat of statements that the Russian Federation was prepared to use unnamed weapons “If someone from the outside tries to intervene in Ukraine and create strategic threats for Russia, our response will be lightning fast.” Putin went on to say: “We have all the tools [to respond] that no one can boast of. And we will not be bragging about them, we will use them if necessary.” (see https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61252320 also reported in the Russian English language publications such as RT, Sputnik and a full transcript can be read on the official website of the President of Russia. These are not linked because our blog host has requested that Russian sites be boycotted consistent with EU policy.)
Virtually all of the western media understands that Putin is discussing using at least tactical nuclear weapons. The western news media unfortunately did not included the very last sentence of Putin’s threat against NATO and according to the official translation from Russia that reads: “And I want everyone to know this; we have made all the decisions on this matter.” That indicates that Putin has created an operational amendment to what we call in the USA our Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP) which is basically general plan for nuclear war. The SIOP gives the President of the United States a range of targeting options, and described launch procedures and target sets against which nuclear weapons would be launched. (Since the Obama administration the term SIOP has been replaced by one or more CONPLAN s (Contingency Plans), but the term SIOP is still widely used in strategic discussions.) President Trump according to US military officers who were stationed in South Korea for example changed the CONPLAN to allow for a first strike against North Korea, but I have never seen any formal verification of that since it is effectively a top secret issue.
The Russians make public what they call “the Basic Principles of the Russian Federation’s State Policy in the Domain of Nuclear Deterrence.” Which of course has a highly secret component to it just as the US SIOP does. When Putin ordered the “special operation” or the invasion of Ukraine he also made it clear in his speech to the Russian people: “For our country, it is a matter of life and death, a matter of our historical future as a nation. This is not an exaggeration; this is a fact. It is not only a very real threat to our interests but to the very existence of our state and to its sovereignty.”. Putin in stating that defined the current situation of Russia as one in which, in line with the principles of its deterrence policy, Russia retains the right to use nuclear weapons. Yesterday in his speech Putin informed his military and the more sophisticated members of the Russian public that he has basically created the trigger for using at least tactical nuclear weapons against NATO relating to the provision of weapons to Ukraine.
President Biden told the American people when the Russian invasion of Ukraine began not to worry about a nuclear war with Russia (see https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-hosts-calls-with-allies-after-putin-put-nuclear-deterrent-alert-2022-02-28/) Biden has never taken back that comment, but based on what the CIA chief William Burns has said since then the US government is in fact concerned about the possibility of at least the use of tactical nuclear weapons in the context of the war in Ukraine. (see https://www.rferl.org/a/31804539.html ). I think President Biden is honestly trying to play down the danger of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons in order not to promote hysteria over that possibility here in the USA. Those of us old enough to have lived through the cold war have in fact seen nuclear war hysteria in the USA before, and Biden experienced that himself.
I do not think Putin is any longer rattling nukes to intimidate NATO, but rather to prepare his population for the possibility of Russia using tactical nukes in its war in the Ukraine. That message has gotten through to some Russians. For example there are thousands of comments posted on Russian websites on Putin’s speech made yesterday in St Petersburg. Here is one of my favorites posted by a commentator calling herself Kodiak: “Unfortunately I believe that we are reaching the point there is no turning back. From now on, we are all striding towards the destruction of humanity as we know it.The west has gone mad, and although no one admits it, this conflict is already out of control, there is no rationality or reasonableness in the decisions that are made. It’s total anarchy. Nobody cares about the reasons that created the conditions for this conflict, in order to resolve it in a reasonable way, assuming commitments that are in the interest of both parties. As they say in my country, they put eye patches like donkeys, they only see forward and bad…And that’s how with this scenario of dantesque irrationality and sick lose morals of the majority of the ruling class of the western axis, that we enter a spiral towards total annihilation… Then we will all be all equals… Ashes to ashes…I hope I’m able to make peace with that gentleman up there who goes by the name of God, I strongly advise you all to do the same…” (there are hundreds of similar but less articulate versions of Koadiak’s post appearing in Russia that have not been censored out by the way)
I think Putin’s real message is getting through to Russians and a good number of Putin supporters are prepared to blame the West amazingly for a potential nuclear holocaust.
For those readers of this blog who read Hungarian, Tamas Philhal has an article https://magyarnemzet.hu/velemeny/2022/04/az-elkerulhetetlen-bukas that in my opinion is very similar to some of the comments I read from Russia, but less honest. That the USA and NATO are responsible for crossing what he calls a red line that will invite an unnamed consequence from Russia. Tamas Philhal of course never discusses a possible tactical nuclear weapons attack by Russia and certainly does not mention that without question Papa Air Base in Hungary, which is a NATO reserve base, would without question be hit potentially by at least a tactical nuclear weapon if there was any nuclear exchange between Russia and NATO. No doubt Tamas Philhal believes the good relationship established by Orban with Putin will protect Hungary from taking any nuclear hit in a situation of escalation and nuclear weapons, what a dumb ass.
“Hungary is not a country but a psychiatric hospital. The doctors ran away, the inmates took over the place.” But … but the doctors are still there and join in … for my understanding there is a more suitable allegory from physicist Leó Szilárd.
“To aliens – they already live among us, but we call them Hungarians.”
A “nice” summary of the fight between the EU and O1G’s Illiberal democracy:
https://www.ips-journal.eu/topics/european-integration/the-eus-lacklustre-fight-for-hungarian-democracy-5779/
Now we haven’t heard from our host for almost a week – hope he’s doing ok!
Also I’m wondering about the Hun government’s position and activities re Ukraine, any news there?
On this day 18 years ago the Visegrad 4 as well as 6 other countries joined the EU – would Hungary have been accepted with the current Fidesz regime?
Kafkadesk has an interesting report on the V4’s situation and problems then:
https://kafkadesk.org/2022/05/01/on-this-day-in-2004-the-four-visegrad-countries-joined-the-eu-in-a-historic-enlargement-to-the-east/
To me at least it seems that Hungary with the current government would not have been accepted!
… interesting article, thanks for posting it, I think you are probably right about the accession question as it relates to Hungary but we are not alone in that respect. Poland would probably also struggle at present. Sophie in ‘t Weld’s article last week in the Guardian shed some interesting light on questions of democracy in the EU… worth a read.
As I recall Wolfi now lives close to Esztergom, my ancestral home town, Orban today reinstated county town status (in the USA we call them county seats) for Esztergom and spoke from the alter of the basilica of Esztergom as part of mass according to posts on Facebook from the most Catholic members of my extended family. Prior to Orban’s speech, that was part of the Holy Catholic mass, Péter Erdő cardinal, the archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest did his formal part of the mass. Also speaking was the Fidesz Mayor of Esztergom Ádám Hernádi, who is directly related to Tamás Zsolt Hernádi the Chairman and CEO of MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas Public Limited Company and is one of Orban’s critical of the oligarchs totally loyal to Orban and Fidesz.
One member of my extended family and a supporter of Momentum who is a little more pragmatic posted that Esztergom was rewarded for its complete and total loyalty to Fidesz, and I agreed with him on Facebook. I was rewarded with a reply from a Fidesz/KDNP supporting cousin who put me in my place writing “Ön amerikai, és nincs joga ilyesmit mondani.”
I actually watched the mass which was broadcast by the Church today in a live stream and was linked to by one of my cousins on Facebook. One thing that was striking to me in all aspects of the mass today were repeated references to Komarom-Esztergom County being a communist creation. The real rightful rule of Esztergom extends across the river because Esztergom county was founded by Stephen I of Hungary had parts that now belong to Slovakia. In effect there were references to the promotion of a greater Hungary in the mass. As Trump used to say lets make America great again, Orban can say: Tedd ismét naggyá Magyarországot!
Maybe Orban is contemplating in the dark parts of his mind an amphibious landing across the river to take back is what is rightfully Hungary’s land. Possibly he has been inspired by Putin trying to take back land that he believes should rightfully be ruled by Russia. Madness reigns supreme these days and any thing may be possible in the thought processes of dictators and would be dictators.
Yest, Istvan, we live nearby and often go to Esztergom for shopping. My wife is not at all interested in churches etc so it took us almost two years to go to the famous Basilika. We were kind of forced to do this by my sister’s husband who is a real history fan and luckily also a fan of good food so we tested some of the best restaurants there while they stayed with us for a week.
Esztergom also has lovely museums (free for us pensioners) except the Christian museum which my wife did not want to visit. I went there but left soon because I didn’t want to start laughing hysterically …
Some time ago our really nice neighbour took us to Visegrád and on the way we passed several really gigantic villas in valleys off the main road. He told us these all belonged to local Fidesz politicians.
My wife just read about O1G’s visit – but I can’t tell you what she said about this.
Funnily there a quite a few cars around here with Slovak licence plates, some of them belong to Hungarians who enjoy the lower taxes there and also the Euro.
PS:
Until 21 years ago there wasn’t even a bridge over the Danube from Esztergom to Slovakia, the last one had been destroyed by the retreating Germans in WW2 and the new one was partially financed by the EU as part of the EU PHARE project to assist applicant countries in their preparations to join the EU….
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%A1ria_Val%C3%A9ria_Bridge
It’s always the EU’s fault!
I assume you went down to the crypt below the basilica. I have a cousin who used to go on the crypt tours stoned on hash. I think the photo below I took with that cousin who kept telling me to take hit on the pipe. I guess I was raised too Catholic to do that.
Just read on kafkadesk that US First Lady Jill Biden will visit Romania and Slovakia to talk with Ukrainian refugees – She already was in Poland too.
https://kafkadesk.org/2022/05/02/us-first-lady-to-meet-ukrainian-refugees-in-slovakia-and-romania/
Strange or not that I’m missing another country on this list?
A country which claims to have taken in more than half a million refugees? I wonder where they all are staying …
Sometimes it is difficult to tell reality from repetition of questionable information appearing in the Western and Hungarian media. So this article appeared in Magyar Nemzet today https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2022/05/kovacs-zoltan-a-magyar-allaspont-az-olaj-es-gazembargo-eseteben-valtozatlan where Zoltán Kovács Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Relations is quoted as stating all stories about Hungary being more open to the possibility of an EU Russian oil and gas embargo was fake news. Kovács may have been actually correct about fake news.
Because still this morning in the USA prior to the New York oil markets opening in Business Insider which is owned by the German publishing house Axel Springer. ran a story that contained this “The EU could propose on Tuesday a Russian oil embargo that would be phased in over the coming months, sources told the Wall Street Journal. Bloomberg reported that the EU’s ban on Russian oil could come by the end of the year, and begin gradual restrictions until that point. The moves toward a full ban on Russian oil come as Germany has agreed to a phased-in embargo after previously being hesitant. But Hungary has been vocal in its opposition to such sanctions, saying they would cause severe damage to the country’s economy. Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orban previously called sanctions on Russian energy his”red line.”
Then just 39 minutes ago revised the article and replaced it with this one https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/putin-ally-hungary-veto-germany-eu-russian-oil-embargo-ukraine-2022-5 that deletes the claim Hungary might not veto the EU embargo proposal and replaces it with this: “Since decisions require unanimity, it makes no sense for the commission to propose sanctions affecting natural gas and crude oil that would restrict Hungarian procurements,” Cabinet Minister Gergely Gulyas told HirTV Sunday.
Really this is pathetic journalism completely changing stories within minutes by Axel Springer, one has to wonder if all of this was done to upset oil markets for the benefit of friends of the writer Phil Rosen.
The EU could propose – that would be phased – sources told the Wall Street Journal. Bloomberg reported – could come by the end of the year, and begin gradual restrictions until that point. There I stop reading.
Yes I agree quality journalism looks different Axel Springer Verlag does not belong to it, in my opinion. If 26 EU countries decide to stop importing oil from Russia, it will work.
Indeed this story https://www.euronews.com/2022/05/02/russian-gas-eu-crisis-talks-seek-unity-over-putin-s-demand-for-payments-in-roubles
released not long ago states: “ Reuters also quotes two EU officials as saying the EU may spare Hungary and Slovakia from an embargo on buying Russian oil. Both countries are heavily dependent on Russian fossil fuels, and Hungary has repeatedly voiced its opposition to energy sanctions.” Zoltán Kovács was correct the EU will not try and force Hungary off of Russian gas any time soon or ever maybe.
It is not clear to me whether EU states and which use the payment pattern that Putin proposed. Two accounts with rubles and euros at one bank, which then change the payments in euros into rubles, this would undermine the sanctions against Russia. Since so far no further supply stops on the part of Russia took place, I suspect that the EU sabotage their own sanctions – willingly or unwillingly. But a delivery stop could still come because an end of the war is not in sight.
Istvan, Axel Springer is the German Fox news combined with Alex Jones etc.
Their main newspaper BILD is kind of fascist. I remember when 55 Years ago they called for killing revolutionary students and there were students who drove in the early morning to their printing facility to stop the deliveries – I was one of them.
László Kövér has his pictures all over the Hungarian media today and he looks all of 62 years old in those as he becomes speaker of the National Assembly of Hungary yet again. László Kövér was one of the young founders of Fidesz originally with long hair and a radical look getting ready to dispose of old man Kadar, now he just looks like a worn out 62 year old right wing Central European bureaucrat. Here is Kövér before.
Here is László Kövér today:
In fact he is starting to look very much today like the Hungarian communists he hated so much. As the Rolling Stones said, time waits for no one.
Kövér is still the poitical head of Hungarian Intelligence – Or what?
Kövér, in short.
The EU had a survey in Jan/Febr 2022 just before the war in Ukraine asking people how they see their situation, how happy they are, whether they want more integration and so on. Quite interesting numbers, especially from Hungary and the rest of the Balkan.
https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/screen/home
Not sure if this is true (but I wouldn’t be surprised). Apparently, the Hungarian government was informed by Russia of the upcoming invasion of Ukraine a few weeks before it actually started. It is on Twitter, other Tweet.
My suspicion is that is true theestampe and that team Orban also informed NATO intelligence of that information as did other nations. I can’t believe the Serbs were not also given a heads up too. In fact if we go back in time we can see the US intelligence agencies wee predicting the invasion really almost a month before it happened. Zelensky was outraged by the USA intentionally allowing this intel to be made public and denied it right up to the invasion.
No doubt there will be books written about all of this in the years to come assuming we all are alive to see it. This video on CNN https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/29/opinions/may-9-putin-victory-war-nixey/index.html has retired US Army General Marks making some very long term bad predictions for how the Ukraine may do in the war.
He is the President of the Marks Collaborative, an advisory firm dedicated to the development and transformation of corporate leaders and their organizations. In this role, he has been a consultant in primary research, energy, and national security and was the co- founder of Willowdale Services, LLC, a boutique private advisory firm based in northern Virginia. I never served in any zone of combat with General Marks during my active and reserve duty in the US Army.
There are a lot of predictions of how this war will go. But more and more there is discussion of it going on for over a year. I think the Russians are aware that is a huge problem for their own military. My own belief is the possibility of Russian use of tactical nuclear weapons to break the back of Zelensky increases with time. I doubt that the US would authorize any NATO tactical nuclear response against Russian forces if Putin did that since Ukraine is not a NATO nation and the possibility of generalized nuclear war would then become a reality.
The video that comes up from CNN is the wrong one from the link. Here is the correct one https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/05/02/putin-plan-partition-ukraine-james-spider-marks-ip-vpx-sot.cnn it was odd how I linked to one video and another came up.
US not retaliating with tactical nuclear weapons? Might as well give up now. What would be the US response? Prayer?
I do not know what the response would be but based on President Biden’s comments on World War III and the provision of more advanced fighter jets to Ukraine I personally don’t think the USA would deliver a tactical nuclear response to a Russian use of tactical mild against Ukraine.
I doubt if this scenario has ever been gamed out by either the Russians or the USA because Ukraine is not covered by article 5 of the NATO agreement.
i understand, but this scenario was worked through in NCA as you reported.
Actually the was based on a Russian attack on a NATO state in the Baltic which involved article 5.
https://ukrainetoday.org/2022/05/02/hungary-knew-about-the-attack-on-ukraine-and-wanted-to-take-part-of-the-territory-danilov/amp/
If Secretary of the National Security Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov was aware of this then why did he support Zelensky repeated denying US intelligence reports that the invasion was coming within days? In fact at one point Zelensky cited his own intelligence services as not supporting US intelligence on the invasion.
See https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60174684 on the Ukrainian response to US intelligence on war planning by Russia.
The office of the PM of Hungary actually denied the claim made by Secretary of the National Security Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov today. I was surprised it was formally responded to.
Something clearly did happen, it could even be part of a Russian disinformation campaign to create greater divisions in NATO. There are also new stories floating around about Putin having cancer and he may have surgery. Part of the rumors on social media include that Putin will hand over power at least temporarily to Nikolai Patrushev, who is the secretary of Russia’s Security Council. Patrushev is a career Russian intelligence agent, first with the Soviet KGB, then later with the Russian FSB, apparently he and Putin go way back. The Russians are saying this is a CIA disinformation campaign and fake news. The plot thickens.
From 14.01.2011 “Brussels – Hungary is causing new irritation in the EU capital Brussels – with a provocative floor covering. The country, which currently holds the EU Council presidency, had the entrance hall of the EU Council building covered with a 200-square-meter plastic carpet. Among other things, the carpet shows a historical map of Hungary from 1848, when the Habsburg Empire was much larger than today’s Hungary.” – https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/kunst-im-eu-gebaeude-grossungarn-teppich-provoziert-bruessel-a-739569.html
Is already a while ago but then already clear in which direction the train goes and today they howl the EU would have enabled Orban and his kingdom. 🙂
Indeed, this is nothing new as you point out at the beginning of your post. Here is an article in EN from Jan 2011. https://euobserver.com/eu-political/31629
FT writes “Hungary loses the trust of its European neighbours
Viktor Orban’s pro-Russian tendencies in the war in Ukraine are out of line with democracies worldwide …
… To rebuild meaningful co-operation among the Visegrad Four, and to regain the trust of its closest partners, Hungary will need to prove that it is part of this common endeavour. This will require a fundamental change of its stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine.” https://www.ft.com/stream/3aee446f-6d9e-4df4-814b-f0b4c821088b
Frankly, I find the article strange … a dictatorship attacks a democracy and the dictator who approves of dictators for logical reasons should condemn the war in Ukraine, which brings him closer to Greater Hungary. The author claims to be an analyst and to live in Zalaegerszeg. 🙂
Reporters without borders published its new Freedom of the Press report – Hungary is at position 85 …
https://rsf.org/en/index
Germany also lost a few positions because often journalists were attacked at demonstrations of antivaxxers and other right wing loonies.