Connections between the Orban regime and the Russian spy agencies:
Russian spy wanted to reach the Russian intelligence center in Budapest via the Ukrainian-Hungarian border to empty his rectum or deliver secret information on a USB stick to Hungary’s friends.
December 2, Orban’s weekly morning talk in the state radio:
He opposes the joint European help to Ukraine
Will he veto it on December 6?
He is against the 15% minimum corporate tax.
Will he veto it on December 6?
There are Hungarian voices (:
“1989-ben, alig egy hónappal az ellenzéki 12 pont TV-székház előtti felolvasása után, április 12-én, a hatalom engedett, és elfogadták a sztrájktörvényt. Amit 1989-ben a Fidesz és más ellenzékiek kicsikartak a kommunistáktól, azt a Fidesz 2021-ben elvette tanároktól. ”
“that Fidesz took away from teachers in 2021.” In my opinion, this is not true. The rights were already taken at the centralization in 2011 or so. At the latest with the law that “civil servants” can be dismissed overnight because of mistrust, which does not need to be described in detail. Besides, Orban has only accepted certain unions if they were submissive and has thus disempowered the progressives to the siding. Everything before 2021 … but what so.
This article https://transtelex.ro/kozelet/2022/12/02/nagy-romaniaztak-es-horat-jartak-a-roman-nacionalistak-a-kezdivasarhely-kozpontjaban-december-1-alkalmaval can be read in the online edition of Telex. It is reasonably long but it discusses a Romanian nationalist march through an ethnically Hungarian community in Kézdivásárhely (Târgu Secuiesc in Romanian). I suspect Fidesz and Orban actually love this march, because it supports their own arguments for encouraging greater Hungarian autonomy in Romania if not independence.. Also if one reads the Fidesz controlled media, Romanian support for Ukraine in this war has been attacked repeatedly as has the stationing of some US armed forces in Romania.
Local and regional nationalist controversies have been a favourite passtime among the extreme nationalists of Transsylvania/Romania and (let’s face it) the Hungarian minority, for 100+ years by now.
Apart from 1941-43, in a Hitler-inspired stupor of expectation of claiming Ukrainian ground as well (which cost way too many lives), the Hungarians have been on the defensive, refusing to acknowledge the fact that they haven’t been able to present a legitimate claim to any part of Transsylvania or Ukraine.
But even today, there is a hardy Hungarian minority, daydreaming of a return to “Big Hungary”.
There has been a bad development relating to western assessments of Ukrainian casualties in the war since the invasion. General Milley the chairman of the US joint chiefs put out a figure of about 100,000 Ukrainian combat deaths in the war so far two weeks ago. He said the Ukrainian and Russian losses were very similar. Ursula Von Der Leyen, also agreed and claimed the Ukrainian military had suffered over 100,000 fatalities in its conflict with Russia. The Ukrainians then through governmental spokespersons stated EC president’s statement that the death toll was “classified information” and subject to “restriction on publication.” then Ursula Von Der Leyen actually edited her prior comment to omit the reference to Ukrainian losses that was posted publicly.
But it actually got worse than that last night because Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak told state television. “We have official figures from the General Staff, we have official figures from the top command, and they amount to [between] 10,000 and 12,500 to 13,000 killed,” Podolyak told Kanal 24. Now those low numbers seem to be outright lies and contradict all estimates being put out by western defense analysts.
It seems very clear both the Russians and Ukrainians want to lie to their own people about the combat deaths so far in this war. I hate to say it but it is actually normal in war to play down any nation’s losses in a war.
In the case of Hungarians from the 2nd Army at the Battle of Stalingrad. The best estimates are that at least 84% of the members of the 2nd Army were killed was hidden from the Hungarian people even by the post war communist government. Of an initial force of about 200,000 Hungarian soldiers and 50,000 Jewish forced-laborers, about 100,000 were dead, 35,000 wounded, and 60,000 taken prisoners of war. Only about 40,000 men ever returned to Hungary.
The truth is to this day bits and pieces of the Hungarian 2nd Army are still periodically found by collectors near Voronezh Ukraine. I grew up with horror stories from within the Hungarian American community in Chicago about Hungarians POWs who were still in Russian captivity in the 1960s, apparently that was true because there was a documented case of a Hungarian POW named Andrea Toma who was sent to a Russian psychiatric hospital and stayed there until the year 2000 when was returned to Hungary. He died in 2004.
My mother’s brother was a German journalist but no Nazi so he had to join Hitler’s army – and disappeared and died somewhere in Stalingrad or was taken a prisoner and died in Siberia or …
My grandmother never knew what happened to him even though she also paid the German Red Cross which searched for any info on missing soldiers after WW2.
She never got over it, was a very good woman.
It seems that Putin remembers these days positively, doesn’t care how many people have to die in his war and how much is destroyed. To me he seems almost as horrible as Hitler.
A scathing article on the relationship of the EU and Hungary, telling us that much of the EU’s helplessness against the authoritarian Hun regime is Mrs Merkel’s fault.
According to the Brussels correspondent of Nepszava, Orban is about to beat the wishy-washy EU again:
They would agree to give him the temporarily withheld 7.5+5.8 = 13.3 billion euros by December 19, if he agrees that the EU give 18 billion euros to Ukraine.
This is so ridiculous. If the European leaders were serious about democracy in Hungary, or democracy in general, they could cut out Orban,and make Orban’s veto threat irrelevant.
For instance, Germany could borrow the 18 billion at a very good interest rate, then lend parts of the money to the other EU member states at the same interest rate.
” In the latest installment of Hungary’s rule-of-law saga, Thursday’s meeting of EU ambassadors saw countries divided between two camps”
One, led by France, Germany, Italy and others — around a dozen countries in total — wants the Commission to produce a new assessment of Hungary’s achievements under the rule-of-law conditionality mechanism, which takes into account the most recent reforms and commitments undertaken since the Commission’s November 19 cutoff.”
The other camp, led by Benelux, the Scandinavians and Lithuania, wants to vote on the basis of the existing Commission proposal to freeze the €7.5 billion in EU funds for Hungary, arguing that Brussels’ assessment points to structural failures, thus anything less would be throwing the rule of law out the window.
“Germany wants to unblock €18 billion in aid for Ukraine, while France really wants to get the minimum corporate tax over the line.
They hope that by showing him some sympathy, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will reciprocate by dropping his vetoes.”
Qualified majority voting:
[Germany + France + Italy] = 47.02%
[Denmark+Sweden+Finland+Lithuania+Netherlands+Belgium+Luxembourg] = 12.14%
[At least 4 member states] AND [at least 35% of the population]
A $60 a barrel EU cap on Russian oil is “toothless since it is above the price of existing Russian oil prices of around $52 a barrel.”
Seven-year (2021-2017) EU agricultural aid to Hungary :
about 14 billion euros.
Just for possessing agricultural land, the owner can get:
227 euro/hectare/year (first 10 hectares)
187 eurio/hectare/year (10 to 150 hectares)
147 euro/hectare/year (more than 150 hectares)
The Hungarian state is planning to “sell” (= mostly give away to Orban’s friends and family) another 200,000 hectares of agricultural land in a few months.
Remeber Dr Hegedüs Zsuzsa who gave u on O1G earlier this year?
She died today, it’s all over the Hun media but I couldn’t find anything in English yet.
My wife immediately said:
Just like Putin’s enemies die …
One of Viktor Orban’s closest associates has resigned …
There’s a fairly long article (behind a paywall) in “Le Courrier d’Europe Centrale”, a French website dedicated to news from Central Europe as the name suggests. While her name rang some bell, I didn’t know who she really was. Complex character, left-wing but pro-Orbán although the article says she resigned from her post after Orbán’s racist comment about mixed races before changing her decision after Orbán tried to clarify when he meant but without apologising. From what I gather, not a great loss for Hungary as she sided with all political parties depending on the era.
Telex ran a story about the US Air Force’s new B21 bomber which is amazingly expensive and obviously designed to make sure we get our thermonuclear weapons on Russian targets if there is no stopping hypersonic missiles coming from Russia. One thing left out of the story by Telex was a good question by a US defense reporter. He asks why create a new manned stealth bomber when the future is likely going to be unmanned combat planes operating with AI and human supervision from officers in bunkers.
The department of Defense official responded immediately in effect saying we are aware AI dominated warfare is on the horizon and the B21 will be able to be operated without pilots once the systems are in place for safe operation.
I have to say I just saw science fiction come to life..
But the propaganda value of such a plane is enourmous because size makes an impression! Even though large air-bases are obsolete in the likely scenario.
That reminds me of the successfully deterring strategy of Swedish air defense during the late sixties and the seventies/eighties: Mobile units of low flight capabable STOL fighter-bombers and missiles that could be folded, transported as well as supplied by ordinary commercial vehicles and stored in ordinary farm buildings, manned around the clock and potentially operating off any 1/4-mile stretch of regular highway. It was a lot cheaper too, compared to modern high tech weapons and virtually unpredictable, since they, unseen, could be placed very close to targets, minimizing distance to goals, within a few hours and didn’t rely on a specific place to return to.
At the same time, the Swedes upgraded heavy fortification and tunneling at cities and the crucial industry was moved underground, expecting heavier attacks there.
Right now I got a real shock!
In my email I found a new mail from our dear Eva’s Hungarian Spectrum???
The text is there but this link doesn’t work .
Anyone had a similar experience?
Yes, got it also.
Here’s the full text of the mail:
Anna Bayer: Protest in front of Hungarian Embassy, Washington
Anna asked me to share with you information about a peaceful demonstration to be held on December 9 at 4 p.m. in front of the Hungarian Embassy (3910 Shoemaker St NW, Washington, DC) in support of the public school teachers in Hungary.
A video of the young man reading this text, in English and Hungarian, is on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/p/Clq3XSWOXv2/
No, but it’s an interesting twist in electronic communication!
yep … I got it
But I wonder who sent it and from where.
Any info there?
Someone called Anna Bayer, apparently. If you search in the HS archives you’ll find quite a few comments and a mentions by Eva, they seem to have stopped in 2016. the name is unfamiliar to me but then I didn’t find HS until early 2018.
Is there a teacher’s demo planned in Budapest on Dec 9th as the post suggests.
i.e. … I’m guessing it was one of Eva’s relos who sent the message on Anna’s behalf.
This story https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/11/29/the-theoretical-platoon-that-would-end-the-war from Meduza is about how the children of the Putin elite have interestingly escaped the Russian military draft. Reminds me of the old Creedence clearwater revival song during the Vietnam war “Fortunate Son” that had these lines:
It ain’t me, it ain’t me
I ain’t no senator’s son, son
It ain’t me, it ain’t me
I ain’t no furtunate one, no…
Back to Hun reality:
We were at the LIDL today for early Xmas shopping because my wife likes to bake etc and we got everything she needs – except sugar.
We saw and heard several women crying – What am I supposed to do?
And a relative who wanted to visit us over the weekend excused himself – not enough gas …
So he told her on the phone that the last specialist docs there had left or retired – 40 or 50 km is the distance to the next dentist, children’s doc, heart specialist etc …
But the Fidesz honchos are flying in their private (sorry, military …) planes …
My wife got so angry
Sugar, salt, oil, flour etc and other basic needs are no problem for her because she’s used to keeping a full Spejz – just in case …
I hear similar complaints.
The Hungarian crisis is much deeper than any authority will admit.
Strict rationing and a surge of black market “deals” can be expected.
Do your shopping in Romania!
Why travel so far?
Last week we went shopping at the Lidl in Štúrovo, Slovakia – right across the Danube via the Maria Valeria Bridge in Esztergom. Took us just a few minutes, no border checks of course.
We also visited the very nice restaurant Casablanca there – and we paid everywhere in € …
Hungarians might know the city as Párkány.
I understand you live near the Slovak border. Don’t Hungarians living near the border go shopping in Slovakia?
Yes, those with cars and pockets full of € …
Our problem was that the Covid pandemic started just as we moved here.
A failure who criticizes the government for failure 😀 that’s funny … 413,552 HUF at the moment.
“Matolcsy said that “the government’s crisis management strategy is flawed”, that “the price caps are causing a 3-4% inflation increase, they should be immediately withdrawn”, and that “Hungary is the only country that consumes more petrol and gas oil than it did before the energy crisis”.”
I would add to Don’s post this. So I read that article in Telex this morning in Hungarian https://telex.hu/gazdasag/2022/12/05/matolcsy-gyorgy-mnb-inflacio-deficit-ikerdeficit-gazdasag and thought i must not be understanding something I am reading. I then used a translation program to read it in English just to make sure. Indeed Orban’s appointed Central Bank Governor György Matolcsy was blaming Orban’s government for what the economic situation that Hungary is in. He said and as reported Telex article that. “Hungary is in a near-crisis situation”, “the fourth-fifth most vulnerable country in the world,’ Matolcsy also said that Hungary “has the second highest twin deficit after Romania; inflation will be the highest next year, 15-18 percent”. Matolcsy also said that inflation is not “sanctioned” or “warlike” because it has risen since the summer of 2021 due to rising energy prices. But then I recalled that our former host Eva had seen this happen before wrote about it which can be seen here https://hungarianspectrum.org/tag/gyorgy-matolcsy/ .
Matolcsy said today that as Don noted “the government’s crisis management strategy is incorrect”, “the price caps cause an inflationary surplus of 3-4 percent, they must be removed immediately”, “Hungary is the only country that consumes more petrol and diesel than before the energy crisis”. Now as we all know it was Orban who promoted keeping gas prices well below market rates, but of course Matolcsy never mentioned the name of Orban.
The fact that Orban was being blamed for the economic crisis was lost on none of the opposition parties. Matolcsy was of course asked at the meeting of the Parliament’s economic committee on Monday morning if he did not have some responsibility for all of this? He said reportedly the government implemented decisions without his advice and consent.
The Fidesz response to Matolcsy can be seen in this article https://magyarnemzet.hu/belfold/2022/12/ket-valsagot-is-sikeresen-kezelt-mar-a-kormany basically András Tállai, the parliamentary state secretary of the Ministry of Finance put all the blame on the war in Ukraine, which has been the Fidesz line. Where Matolcsy obviously sees Orban’s response to the war as a disaster, András Tállai acted as if he never said that.
Now all of this does have to take into consideration that Matolcsy is most likely őrült to one degree or another. But who gave this madman his job, well another madman Orban. Basically Hungary is now in the situation we here in the USA were in with the madman Trump, but we had more institutional controls in place, what Trump called the deep state that was trying to undermine him constantly.
“… has the second highest twin deficit after Romania; …” When I read this, I thought that Orban’s big mouth had only used his best people … I thought. Once M. said, if I remember correctly, that the pimples on the buttocks of babies prove that Japan and Hungary are genetically related. Istvan, I believe that this loser belongs to the Fidesz elite. What were the teachers thinking back then to give those idiots a school diploma I can’t even guess. So honestly, it doesn’t seem difficult to find the madmen.
The “deep state” is just the state that doesn’t want Trump, like the election – if lost then it’s rigged. This is all total bullshit. If now some claim that this is the ingenious probaganda of Orban. I can only reply that is the snack for stupid.
Bacsa György, managing director of MOL, explains that they do not have enough fuel to supply all gas stations. They would have to import, but just for logistical reasons can not. The fuel shortage will last for a while … I read that in some places only 2 liters are sold at a discount. With a 40 liter tank, that’s 20 gas stations. This is a homemade problem because of the cheap fuel consumption has increased over the previous year.
Of course now team Orban wants to switch the crisis back to the EU and the war in Ukraine by vetoing an 18 billion euro ($18.93 billion) financial aid package to Ukraine. Not long ago German Finance Minister Christian Lindner told reporters: “Hungary is responsible for us not being able to show our financial solidarity with Ukraine. It is a war where our European values and interests are being defended. Ukraine must not lose this war and therefore needs our financial support.”
I assume there is deep regret that there is no method for expelling Hungary from either the EU or NATO at this point.
The Spiegel reports that the Huns today blocked 18 billion € EU help for Ukraine:
This news will probably soon be available in other languages too.
Now we’re waiting for the EU’s next steps re the Hun blackmailing.
This afternoon we visited several of our neighbours (me dressed as St Miklas and my wife as Krampusz). Much of the conversations was on the supply problems – no gas at all in the Esztergom gas stations!
And food prices of course are over the top.
Of course all this must be the fault of the EU and Ukraine – Hunxit anyone???
And at the same time O1G asks for introduction of the West Balkan countries into the EU – chance of success here?
I just asked a cousin in Esztergom about the gas stations running dry Wolfi. He said he was surprised I knew that, was it in your news he asked?
I told him I learned it from a Saint Nicholas of Myra impersonator. (Myrai Szent Miklós -megszemélyesítő).
Extraordinary announcement will come from Orban’s minister and the chairman of the Hungarian oil company MOL at 10:30 PM today.
At night, in 8 minutes.
To alleviate the gasoline shortage, the special price for Hungarian citizens is hereby abolished.
Yes, and as usual they announced it at 10:40 PM and it be comes effective at 11 pm
This is not a joke, so just imagine people already waiting in line át the pumps without knowing the price has gone up by at least 140 forints per litre when they get there
Oh jeh, that will be painful …
‘MOL cannot provide enough gasoline for Hungarian, foreign companies have to be imduced to export the missing quantities to Hungary.’
‘MOL cannot provide enough gasoline for HungarianS, foreign companies have to be iNduced to export the missing quantities to Hungary.’
When I read about the Ukrainian attack on the Russian bomber base I could almost hear the cheers going up at US strategic operations around the USA. I am honestly stunned by how pathetic the Russian air defenses of their strategic bomber bases were.
I attended the University of North Dakota during the Cold War where I was also in ROTC. Very close by was Grand Forks Air Force Base (AFB) that housed part of the Strategic Air Command (SAC) back then, with B-52 bombers, KC-135 tankers, and Minuteman intercontinental ballistic missiles. I knew many officers that served there and can testify in general to the extensive defenses of the base.
I honestly can’t imagine that base being hit as the Russians were by Ukraine without a massive defensive effort being carried out back then, it would have also included a civil defense warning for the city of Grand Forks and the University. In fact as an ROTC cadet I would have likely been evacuating my fellow students to fallout shelters. The Russians apparently do not just have a Potemkin army, but very possibly a Potemkin strategic nuclear force system too. Apparently Putin understands none of this with his generals hiding all the excess fraud from him and stealing more than Putin granted them.
Yes, it is a legal thought that the air defense was absent, at least it was not present. Mathias Rust comes to mind, he landed with a Cessna 172 P on the Great Moskva Bridge not far from the Red Square in Moscow … without being noticed. That will gnaw at Putin’s position, too.
This photo from Hungary is all over the USA now.
That new gas supply was my Miklós present to all Hungarians!
Though my Krampusz wife opposed it because she felt that less crazy drivers were running down the road in the last days and she really enjoyed that …
And she said that we have to raise the price significantly at least to maybe make people shut off their cars’ engines while waiting.
Macron & Scholtz = [Daladier & Chamberlain]^[squared]
Not only do they want to appease Putin, but Orban too …
“Originally, ministers were today supposed to vote on the Commission’s proposal to freeze €7.5 billion in regular EU funds for Hungary.
But France and Germany are leading a push to lower that amount, arguing that Hungary has made some reforms in the meantime.
“Progress has been made by the Hungarian authorities, it should be noted,” a French treasury official said. “A certain number of reforms have been undertaken.””
The all encompassing Hun. nationalism allows for any level of Hun. dysfunctionality in Europe, going on for 100+ years.
I recommend a longer perspetive on Orbán vs the EU.
He may achieve short-term halts (percieved victories) but in the end, he loses. It’s been the trend for many years and it will continue.
The Hungarian electorate will (eventually) decide when to call it quits.
Adding an unknown factor to the equation, the EU can afford it.
Both The NY Times and the Washington Post covered the arrest of members of the right-wing extremist Reichsbürger movement in Germany for plotting to overthrow the government.
I was not surprised by direct involvement of members of Germany’s Special Forces Command. Indeed I became very aware of similar tendencies among old veterans who we’re friends going back to Vietnam days.
These scary tendencies appeared well before Trump too by the way. I disassociated with many of them, but a few that I never suspected of attempting to recruit for right wing causes I maintained communication with.
One told me that Trump was a useless rich boy in reality scared of the entire idea of combat. He was being used for PR purposes and would himself be put out of power when the time came. I disassociated all contact with him a retired Army Colonel because just that comment was more frightening than Trump himself.
I suspect that there are Hungarian TEK members and officers that feel the same way about fat Orban. I am pretty sure Orban knows how much he is likely despised by some of his own anti-terror forces and devotes some efforts of to spying on them.
The Direkt36 articles about those on the Pegasus list have included former Hungarian security officials in the lists of people being spied on, but interestingly none of the TEK appointed since 2010. The presumption by Direkt36 seems to be they are trusted by Orban, I doubt that.
A somewhat similar type of network was suspected in connection with the assassination of Swedish PM Olof Palme in 1986. For a number of reasons, he could well have posed a serious national security risk. Nothing conclusive could be proven by the official investigators, which has led to several conspiracy theories.
This Telex article https://telex.hu/gazdasag/2022/12/06/matolcsy-gyorgy-varga-mihaly-nagy-marton-gazdasagpolitika-orban-kormany-kritika is about the dynamics of the relationship between György Matolcsy and Orban. I learned a lot from reading it. But the author Gergely Bruckner presents Matolcsy as if he was not viewed by other central bankers as at least not credible if not mentally ill.
This old article https://budapestbeacon.com/hungarian-central-bank-governor-gyorgy-matolcsy-goes-on-spending-spree/amp/ discussed some of his absurd expenditures at the National Bank.
Matolcsy said in a book review he wrote for political weekly Heti Valasz some years back that were a shock to other international bankers when he argued for a weak currency. He seemed not to care that it had a negative impact on Hungarian consumption, offsetting the positive effect on exports, because of the high level of foreign-currency debt held by Hungarian households and companies, according to Nomura economist Peter Attard Montalto. (See https://www.businessinsider.com/nbh-policy-outlook-driving-forints-fall-2013-1?amp )
György Matolcsy actually had his bizarre economic theories published in English by the National Bank and they can be downloaded here https://www.mnb.hu/en/pressroom/publications-of-the-governor they go back to 2019.
Seeing how fast the decision to end the price cap on petrol went, one can only deduct Matolcsy’s speech on December 5 was in fact Orbán’s idea and not some erratic behaviour like some commented.
Putin on December 7.
“our strategy for the use of means of defense, namely, as a defense, we consider weapons of mass destruction, nuclear weapons, it is all tuned around the so-called retaliatory strike, that is, when we are struck, we strike back.”
“we do not maintain our own nuclear weapons, including tactical ones, on the territory of other countries, we do not have them, but the Americans have them both in Turkey and in a number of other European states. ”
“Therefore, we have not gone crazy, we are aware of what nuclear weapons are. We have these means, and they are in a more advanced and more modern form than any other nuclear country. This is obvious, today it is an obvious fact. But we are not going to brandish this weapon like a razor while running around the world. But, of course, we proceed from the fact that it exists. This is a natural deterrent, not provoking to the expansion of conflicts, but a deterrent. And I hope everyone understands this.”
Other talking points:
Poland wants to take away western Ukraine.
Only Russia can defend Ukraine from Poland.
I would argue that the advocates inside the US Air Force for a US first strike to take out Russian ICBMs, nuclear armed cruise missiles (including hypersonic cruise missiles), Russian long rang bombers, and submarines has re-emerged.
They argue in many forums using higher ranking retired generals that the Ukrainian attacks on the Russian bomber based show a first strike is now a viable option for the USA.
Because of my own low rank upon retirement I honestly can’t debate them, but other higher ranked retired officers have argued against the first strike advocacy. The response from the madmen coming largely from the air force and a few from the US navy has been vicious coming close to calling them Putin agents which is deeply disturbing.
Official inflation in Hungary
2022 November vs 2021 November
Beans & Peas: 42.2%
Fresh vegetables: 37.2%
Restaurant meals: 31.7%
Food on the average: 43.8%
About a quarter (11%) of the 44% food inflation can be attributed to the weakening of the Hungarian currency against the euro.
The food inflation excluding the alcohol and non-alcoholic drinks was actually
Another step in Orban’s planned economy MOL must now cede 95% of profits to “Orban” after 40%. 😀 Orban is bankrupt …
“BUDAPEST (dpa-AFX) –One day after lifting the cap on gasoline prices in Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban has sharply increased the excess profits tax for Hungarian oil company MOL. The company, which imports crude oil and produces most of the fuel marketed in Hungary, must now pay 95 percent of its profits to the state. This is determined by an Orban decree that appeared in the Hungarian Official Gazette on Thursday night.”
Today my wife’s present from the Hun ***expletive deleted*** arrived, brought in the rain by our postman who also got a few forints as a Xmas present and thank you from her.
Those 10 000 forints aren’t even enough to compensate inflation for one week’s shopping – WTF!
She got really angry …
December 9, 2022 7:02 am CET
“COMMISSION GIVES INTO COUNCIL PRESSURE TO REASSESS HUNGARY’S FINE: It took more than a nudge — rather a degrading arm-twist from a group of EU countries led by France, Germany and the Czech presidency — to force Ursula von der Leyen to go back to the drawing board and rethink her assessment on Hungary’s corruption and malaproppriation risks, which led it to recommend a freeze of €7.5 billion in EU funds.”
“In the end, no one will come out unstained from this episode — not von der Leyen, who wanted to appear strong on defending EU values before the European Parliament, and is now being forced to walk back, nor the Council, which, no matter how much they spin it, won’t be able to brush off the impression that they gave in to Orbán’s blackmail.”
This is the reaction of the commission.
“Summary of the Hungarian recovery and resilience plan assessment for the 11
criteria set by the Recovery and Resilience Facility regulation”
10 A’s, 1 B
“Overall, Hungary’s procedures to prevent fraud, corruption and conflicts of interest as well as to ensure compliance with applicable law seem comprehensive provided that all dedicated audit and control milestones are satisfactorily fulfilled.”
” it can be concluded that the arrangements can reasonably be expected to be effective in preventing, detecting and correcting fraud, corruption,
conflict of interest and other irregularities when implementing the plan.”
The Commission is joking.
Apparently Putin has been having some discussions with his generals about a way to more efficiently to destroy the Ukrainian electrical grid rather than the expensive use of all these missiles and drones.
This article https://spectrum.ieee.org/amp/one-atmospheric-nuclear-explosion-could-take-out-the-power-grid-2654855572 gives a reasonable summary of what an attack Iike this would mean.
My assumption is NATO and the USA would consider a Russian EMP attack on Ukraine to be a nuclear strike subject to a retaliatory strike on Russia. Apparently the dumb ass editors at MTI and at Magyar Nemzet do not understand Putin is actually threatening nuclear war against Ukraine, which would lead to the destruction of Hungary too which is a NATO member. See https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2022/12/putyin-moszkva-atveheti-washingtontol-a-lefegyverzo-csapas-koncepciojat
Istvan the Hungarians trust in their miracle deer that makes them “invulnerable” or something for thousands of years. That it could be extreme stupidity was not mentioned before. The cultivation of one’s own arrogance has always been under nationalism first.
This is the reason for the Hungarian nationality. The wonder deer Orban … muaaahhh
Today Putin stated that he can imagine using a first nuclear strike in the defense of other countries [pretext: Belarus]
“это нас заставляет задуматься о тех угрозах, которые нам создаются такого родам идеями в сфере обороны других стран.”
Putin’s escalating nuclear rhetoric is unnerving President Biden who came of age during the Cold War and the Vietnam war. That is why he uses the terms world war 3 and Armageddon in speeches.
Unfortunately there are elements in the US military, in particular in the US Air Force and the Navy who believe a nuclear war is winnable.
As I mentioned years ago on the Hungarian Spectrum I met while in the US Army reserves the nuclear bomb scientist
Edward Teller who was a Hungarian-American. We spoke in Hungarian for a few minutes at White Sands missile testing base.
His discussion with me was a pep-talk about how important nuclear weapons were and how my family should be proud of my service. He too believed a nuclear war with Russia was winnable. In my opinion Teller had a real influence on many in the US military.
Really fascinating info – thanks, Istvan!
Edward Teller was an important member of the Manhattan project together with other Jewish Hungarian scientists: John von Neumann and Leo Szilard.
But from his activities after WW2 it seems that he was a bit crazy.
Here is the uniform patch I wore back then. We gave Dr. Teller one by the way
Some time after Dr. Teller’s visit we had a showing on the base of Dr. Strangelove the 1964 Stanley Kubrick film. We all got roaring drunk at the officers club too.
I can relate to all the Cold War nuclear threat and retaliation stuff, from a Western stance. After all, the money that went into building Western defenses was given through democratic procedures. This implied public discussions about figures and personel and plans to meet the nuclear disaster.
Eastern Europe had none of that.
There was a general “imperialist” threat from the West, but according to the propaganda, the East was in total control and people could go about their daily lives, unaffected.
Nobody in the East knew anything about the gravity of the Cuba-crisis.
They heard about Vietnam being attacked by “Western Imperialism” and gave a lot of aid in solidarity, but never saw reports of the actual action.
Don’t know about that; but Teller had a real influence on Stanley Kubrick.
Putin again emphasizes that Russia has a better nuclear system than the US
“I understand that everyone is worried, always worried, as soon as nuclear weapons appeared and weapons of mass destruction in general, always people, all of humanity is worried: what will happen to the planet and to us? But look what I meant, I will explain some things.
The United States has a pre-emptive strike theory, one.
Second, they are developing a sytem to disarm a strike. What is that? This is a strike carried out with modern high-tech means, which should be delivered at control points, deprive the enemy of these control systems, etc.”
‘At one time we did not have ground-based cruise missile’ […] “But now we have them, and they are more modern and even more efficient.”
‘We can also deliver preventive disarming strikes with hypersonic systems. The US still does not have them, but we do”
” We, in our strategy, have formulated a retaliatory strike, there are no secrets here. What is a reciprocal? That is, in response. This is when our early warning system – a missile attack warning system – detects missile launches in the direction of the territory of the Russian Federation. Launches have been detected, then the response begins.”
“After the early warning system receives a signal about a missile attack, hundreds of our missiles are in the air from our side, it is impossible to stop them. But it is still a retaliatory [strike]. What does it mean? This means that the fall of the warheads of enemy missiles on the territory of the Russian Federation is inevitable – they will fall anyway. True, nothing will remain of the enemy, because it is impossible to intercept hundreds of missiles. And this, of course, is a deterrent, a serious deterrent.”
‘But we can still think about preventive strikes in the defense of other countries’
70061, December 9, 2022
Well that is not true as of a December 5. See https://www.stripes.com/branches/air_force/2022-12-05/air-force-hypersonic-weapons-china-8312739.html
If Putin thinks he has the edge he is foolish. Everyday the USA closes the gap. Possibly Putin has three hypersonic missiles ready to fire, unfortunately the USA will have dozens within a year. To say this is insane is an understatement.
Small news item from the land of “reduced corruption”:
Orban’s son-in-law bought Hotel Gellert today.
According to a decree today, the budgets of Hungary can be modified by decree – there is no need to convene Parliament.
Qatar has bribed [at least one] vice president of the European Parliament.
She “recently called Qatar a “frontrunner in labor rights” ”
“COMMISSION GIVES INTO COUNCIL PRESSURE TO REASSESS HUNGARY’S FINE: It took more than a nudge — rather a degrading arm-twists from a group of EU countries led by France, Germany, and the Czech presidency — to force Ursula von der Leyen to go back to the drawing board and rethink her assessment on Hungary’s corruption and malaproppriation risks, which led it to recommend a freeze of €7.5 billion in EU funds.”
“In the end, no one will come out unstained from this episode — not von der Leyen, who wanted to appear strong on defending EU values before the European Parliament, and is now being forced to walk back, nor the Council, which, no matter how much they spin it, won’t be able to brush off the impression that they gave in to Orbán’s blackmail.”
“What will happen now: The Commission will today produce an updated assessment of Hungary’s progress on 17 reform commitments it undertook to avoid the freezing of €7.5 billion in EU funds.”
“Actually, the European Commission did not change its assessment of Hungarian anti-corruption measures, which means that the freezing of 7.5 billion euros is still considered justified. Meanwhile, the EU is working hard to avoid the Hungarian veto regarding the loan to Ukraine.”
So, the council gave the commission the task of checking the developments.
“In the end, no one will come out unstained from this episode — not von der Leyen, who wanted to appear strong on defending EU values before the European Parliament, and is now being forced to walk back, nor the Council, which, no matter how much they spin it, won’t be able to brush off the impression that they gave in to Orbán’s blackmail.” (Politico again).
Conclusion: the commission held its opinion, even if Politico and Tappanch predicted differently.
“the commission held its opinion, even if Politico and Tappanch predicted differently.”
EUR/HUF is unchanged, did not go up today.
And yesterday it rained the whole day here.
This might be significant regarding the EU funds to Hungary.
7:59 PM · Dec 9, 2022
The rule of law lies at the core of our European unity and solidarity.
EU Commission has just concluded that Hungary‘s remedial measures are insufficient to protect EU funds. We support Commission‘s proposal to withhold funds for Hungary as long as they remain at risk.
Anna LührmannMinister of State for Europe and Climate
And the family gets a bit nervous. All of a sudden, they do not want EU money anymore.
I guess today after socialist MEP and EP VP Eva Kaili was arrested with bags of cash, bribes from Qatar Orban is off the radar screen again. There are even additional stories being floated about bribery from Morocco.
Apparently the reality was something close to slave labor was used to build the World Cup facilities and even Luca Visentini the secretary general of the International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC) is now in jail for bribery.
I believe the left in the EP which had led the fight against Orban’s corruption has a huge credibility problem of its own, the socialist have quickly expelled Kalli which is also pathetic. Politico today wrote: “The Qatar scandal could be “the most egregious case”of alleged corruption Parliament has seen in years, said Transparency International chief Michiel van Hulten. Alberto Alemanno, a law professor at HEC Paris, called it the “most shocking integrity scandal in the history of the EU.”
What a nightmare, it’s like Chicago the home of the bag men taking bribes for anything they can get or maybe even worse Mexico where drug cartels payoff government officials at the highest levels.
No wonder Orban laughs at the EU moaning about his corruption of EU funds, he knew many in in the EU are his brothers and sisters in bribery.
Unless something serious is done to uncover the extent of the halal bribery and consequences are enforced, the EU shows a very poor example.
Very ironically, this fuels Hungarian govt. efforts to legalize their “nationally kosher” corruption.
Yes of course the EU must clean house, so must Democrats over on this side of the Atlantic.
Just pointing out Orban’s or Trump’s corruption doesn’t fix the ongoing problem of what can be called professional politicians who almost form a social class.
I became a registered lobbyist for both disabled children’s issues and veterans issues at the state and federal levels after my retirement.
Even generally honest state and federal legislators did not want to criticize fellow lawmakers who were under investigation and normally convicted for crimes after long trials. It’s pretty depressing really.
I recall having many exchanges with our late host Eva about JC Juncker’s history of corruption in Luxembourg making it impossible for him to contain Orban’s stealing. She believed deeply in the EU as an institution and thought he could rise to the occasion to take on Orban. After he retired she admitted Juncker failed on a few sentences.
I think it’s hard for Central Europeans not to see the EU as a savior for corruption in their own countries. It is the same here with legislators who project an image of honesty but have to work with elected members of Congress who are very likely crooks. I am very glad not to be attending legislative hearings anymore and attending dinners with politicians just to establish facial recognition to be able to lobby for bills to support disabled children and military veterans.
Very true! That chivalrous bond of solidarity between lawmakers covers way too much dirt.
The EU decided right now to give help to Ukraine – and Hungary voted against it, but that doesn’t count.
If you read the comments in Austrian newspaper STANDARD eg you will see what others think about Fidesz.
Here another local newspaper that reports alredy:
I’m looking for a source in English.
Now it’s all over the Austrian and German media:
Found it in English too – but nothing yet from the “big” media:
So maybe the money that was supposed to go to Mészaros and Tiborcz will go to Ukraine to help?
I am less than clear how the EU commission is avoiding Orban’s veto. I read a Telex story today and it seemed vague to me as what I read in Euronews.
What is for sure is the Republicans who have a majority in in the US House will have a committee established looking at possible theft of US weapons and non-military aid to Ukraine.
I am confident there will be problems found just as the Kyiv Independent has in its investigations. But the real question is what level of corruption can be acceptable here in the USA to keep Ukraine from being crushed by Putin.
As was obvious billions in US aid to both Iraq and Afghanistan was stolen, yet it kept flowing for years.
Our own military procurement programs in the USA have resulted repeatedly in criminal indictments too. As has been evident in our retreat in Afghanistan we as a nation are fully capable of abandoning a war. I experienced that following my US Army service in Vietnam when US Congress cut off all military support for South Vietnam and it collapsed in 1975. I honestly believe Putin or any likely successor would show much mercy to Ukrainians who fought against the Russian occupation of direct support for Ukraine coming from the EU and USA disappeared.
If I was an adolescent Ukrainian refugee living with their mother in the EU I would not return to Ukraine be subject to the draft and combat currently with western support constantly in doubt. Obviously if I was a Russian hiding in Turkey from the draft I would not go home either.
There is no honor in death in a war effort that is abandoned. But in my case it really took three different wars to come to that conclusion because I was completely indoctrinated. By the time my own daughter was in some combat in Afghanistan I was no supporter of that war, but she is walking down my path now and too may have an changed perspective in the years that come.
“USAID, with bipartisan Congressional support, is supporting new locally-driven initiatives in Central Europe with the goal of strengthening democratic institutions, civil society, and independent media, which are all pillars of resilient democratic societies.”
During the Obama Presidency there was a similar capacity building program for Hungary to develop civil society organizations. One of their grant recipients spent a month at our home in Chicago while she was interning at the Chicago Coalition for the homeless. She has gone on to work with homeless people in in Hungary for years now and also works in alcohol and drug rehab. When Trump came to power he cut that program. I guess he thought the alcohol and drug problem has been solved in Hungary. I have visited with her on visits to Hungary. Though a different strand of the same federal program I met the mother of a very disabled child living in Budapest who created an organization for parents of children with disabilities that has a goal of increasing support for those children in Hungary. She too have had some achievements.
Orban agreed to the 15% corporate tax in general, but it will be only 11% for Hungary (current 9% + max 2% local tax)
Orban agreed to the loan package to Ukraine (although his agreement was no longer needed !)
In return he receives
5.8 + 10/65* 7.5 = 6.95 billion euros now and
55/65/ 7.5 = 6.35 billion euros later (“with conditions”)
(if I understand this well)
The European Union is a joke, a promoter ans sustainer of corrupt dictators.
55/65 * 7.5 = 6.35
Before December 12 evening
Hungary would receive 0 + 4 billion now
After the meeting
Hungary would receive 5.8 + 5.25 = 11.05 billion now.
Orban received 7 billion euros this evening in return for NOTHING.
Orban is almost as rich as the Qatari emir.
Not from oil, but from the EU.
I am sure he can bribe the eurocrats just as well as the emir
Details of the 5.8 billion euros to Orban:
Details of the 11.5 billion euros to Orban:(of which 55% temporarily withheld)
The temporary suspension actually affects only 29% of the full 2021-2027 cohesion funds to Hungary and even much less % of the complete EU support to Hungary
I’m not sure how good this deal is for the EU or Hungary, but the forint has strengthened against the euro (as a result of the deal?) this morning…
“The outcome amounts to a win for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has spent months gambling that he could use vetoes to wrangle EU funds from Brussels.”
Tapp, Is it possible for you to formulate some deciding details of the Orbán-Hungary deal?
What I would like to see uncovered, are ethic/legal/economic thresholds, at which a majority of Hungarians give up their civil democratic rights. (I know it’s a wide parameter) Is that possible?
We know that most Hungarian residents settle for a sub par monetary standard of living within the EU. They also settle for a (low) negative standard, regarding general democratic principles, which influence decision making at local levels.
Finally, the increasingly costly 100+ year-old efforts to maintain the image of “Big Hungary” had no effect on the world outside Hungary proper – Is an implied “national symbol economy” responsible for the deficeit and is that “economy” the ethical/moral basis of the Orbán mafia’s accumulated wealth?
If reliable figures can substitute a few of the many undefined and undocumented variables, much can be explained.
The German media also agree with me:
Hungary had to accept strict conditions to get the money, accepted the 18 billions for Ukraine etc.
And some of the money is still declined until Hungary fulfills its obligations.
To me this looks more like the Hun government giving in …
Totally OT (or not?):
The Putin propaganda source Pressenza has a crazy by an US authorwhich declares that the invasion of Ukraine is the USA’s fault – Putin was forced to enter and k!ill all those fascists.
Pressenza really is horrible.
To me that politico article doesn’t sound so positive for Orbán as you imply, tappanch.
And of course Hungary’s image (or rather the rest of it that remained …) is now totally destroyed.
Now we have to see how this continues.
I agree with you on this, Wolfi,although OV and co will present this as a victory it seems far from it although we have to see what happens later this week. It is also important to see that this is part of a much longer process rather than an isolated event that is ended. The whole q of unanimity is a crucial stage in that process.
To the Qatari bribing scandal.
Although Eva Kaili ( Εύα Καϊλή ) is from the Socialist Party PASOK, she is very close to the ruling conservative “New Democracy” party, including von der Leyen’s vice president
Margaritis Schinas ( Μαργαρίτης Σχοινάς )
Together in the UAE:
“The [conservative Greek] Prime Minister fought for her [Kaili’s] election as vice-president [of the European Parliament]”
How much is the average social security in Hungary?
Today, after the EU money deal, Orban announced a 15% raise of the social security for 2023.
(The inflation is officially about 23%)
Minister Varga announced that this will cost 473 billion HUF a month.
The number of recipients was in January of
2020: 2.384995 million
2-year decline: 83,544
Remark: the official number of CoViD-19 victims were 40,000 in 2 years.
From other sources we know that
113729 recipients died and
66224 were added to the roll in 2021
1-year decline: 47.505
Suppose that the NET number of recipients declined only by 27,000 in 2022, because the CoViD is largely over.
This means that the number of recipients in January 2023 is about 2.274 million.
473 billion / 2.274 million = 208 thousand forints.
Therefore, if minister Varga’s number is the true number, the average (not the median!!) social security payment is 507 euros or 208 thousand forints in December of 2022.
another piece of data contradicts minister Varga’s number:
In the first 11 months, the social security expense was 4421/11 = 402, and not 473 billion a month !
With this (also official) number, the average social security is only 177 thousand forint = 432 euros.
The combined value of the 4 increase of the social security in Hungary in 2022 is 18.75%
5%; 3.9%; 4.5%; 1/2 havi extra
(1.05 * 1.039 * 1.045) * (1+1/24) = 1.187545
The latest official inflation number was 22.5%.
The latest food (minus drinks) inflation number was 49.2%
Orban’s proxy bought the large internet provider “digi.hu” with mostly public money about a year ago.
He has monopoly for hundred of thousands of apartments and houses.
He has raised the price of the cable internet by 90% in the last 6 months, (without notifying his customers in letter)..
The anti-monopoly authority, of course, will not raise a finger.
So as I guessed would happen Magyar Nemzet ran this article on the EU bribery scandal https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2022/12/a-bizottsag-is-megszolalt-az-europai-parlament-korrupcios-ugyeben The last point in the article is for the corrupt Orban government the one they like the best: The robber cried out, because it is beyond hypocrisy that, based on political lies, national governments are accused of corruption on a daily basis and financial sanctions are demanded against them, while selling political influence is the norm for the left, he said (citing Guy Veroifstadt grin the Renew Europe group in the EP). He emphasized: with this scandal, Brussels has lost all credibility to hold others accountable for corruption.”
Yes for a good while the EU will be doing nothing about Orban’s stealing, indeed happy days in Felcsut.
Orban interview with subtitles in English https://youtu.be/casKo__QpsI
The owner of one of the last independent portals (24.hu) explains how the Orban regime tries to intimidate him into selling his portal and newspapers.
December 12: Orban got billion of euros from the EU
Orban is happy in Qatar with the President of laundromat called “FIFA” Infantino .
Orban and his entourage flew four military and private jets to get to Qatar.
And most Hungarians of course still agree with their government.
Unbelevable – now we know why there is a gas shortage in Hungary.
Tappanch, can you tell us how many Fidesz ***expletive deleted*** went to Katar?
Very likely, the “royal” extravaganza matches the grandeur of the national self-image. Real-world realities are just something many people prefer to ignore or explain away.
2022.12.12, 9 AM : 399.18
2022.12.14, 3 PM : 381.88, a 4.33% decline
The next step for Orban:
A Turkish court on December 14, 2022 sentenced Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a popular rival of President Tayyip Erdogan, to two years and 7 months in prison and imposed a political ban for insulting public officials, in a ruling set to go to an appeal.
Imamoglu, from the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), was tried over a 2019 speech in which he said:
“When we look at where we fall in the eyes of Europe and the world, those who canceled the [Istanbul] election [results] are fools.”
Tappanch, I just read about this in the German SPIEGEL and was thinking similarly – but you beat me to it!
This case is far from over yet.
Imamoglu has appealed the verdict and enjoys wide popular support in Istanbul – But the signalling value for Erdogan is high enough to draw premature reactions from those who fear him.
He will appeal the decision as soon as it is approved.
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