I bet Americans will hear a lot more about this, in the following months. Guess why! Tara Reade, who accused…
Interesting yes, but for whom? The Telex historical account is not exactly kosher to actual events. Tito died in 1980…
This Telex article about Hungarian peace keeping troops in Kosovo is worth reading https://telex.hu/kulfold/2023/05/30/szerbia-koszovo-magyar-katonak-sebesules-kfor-bekefenntartok .
Louis wrote it on 01.27.2023. Since when has Orban been playing the peace genre since his State of the Union,…
Among Russian immigrants living in New York City Putin’s war is not publicly supported s at all now. See https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/11/soviet-refugees-brighton-beach-little-odesa-new-york-russia-ukraine-solidarity.…
Just a friendly reminder…
No, it’s not an April Fool’s joke:
Trump and DeSatan both claim that Soros is behind all the problems they are having right now.
Just search for it – all the stupid fascist media (like NY Post, Newsmax etc) report on it.
Maybe he’s immortal? I wonder whether I will have that much power when/if I reach 92 years …
At least we can establish that connections through A.&R. Finkelstein/R. Stone/A. Dugin have one common trait and long-term effect:
Final loss of all credibility and the ability to deter all but habitual liars and nutcases from association.
These people should consider themselves lucky to be born before abortion became free.
This article https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/04/01/incendiary-claim-that-george-soros-funds-alvin-bragg/ discusses the reality of the Soros Bragg connection.
Soros supports more progressive criminal sentencing and rehabilitation efforts which is why his group supported Bragg.
If Trump is convicted he may actually receive mental health services in prison that were part of what Soros supported. That would be ironic.
Clearly the entire Stormy Daniels escapade reflects Trump’s mental heath problems. She had extorted wealthy men before and Trump likely knew that, he was actually attracted to that dark side of the porn star and it intrigued him.
The Guardian published this letter, I think, it is an impressive one.
‘My country has fallen out of time’: Russian author Mikhail Shishkin’s letter to an unknown Ukrainian | Books | The Guardian
Mikhail Shishkin of course is now a Swiss citizen living in Switzerland since 1995 and if he wrote what he did in the Guardian piece and lived in Russia he would be locked away in gulag.
His latest book “My Russia: War or Peace?” is in formal violation of Russian law.
As his Guardian article linked by Jan states “…only way out is to inflict a military defeat on the Putin regime. Therefore, democratic countries must help the Ukrainians with everything they can, and above all with weapons. After the war, the whole world will come to your aid to reconstruct what has been destroyed, and the country will be able to rebuild itself. And Russia will lie in the ruins of economy and in the ruins of consciousness. A new birth of my country is possible only through the complete destruction of the Putin regime.” Is potentially an Apocalyptic vision for all of us.
Putin’s United Russia faction would initiate strategic nuclear war before allowing a full military defeat and regime change. Cathal Nolan in his book “The Alllure of Battle” (2017) argues that major wars like the one in Ukraine do not end by decisive battlefield victories but are long wars of attrition. Stalin was probably right when he said modern wars are wars of motors and industry. The winner produces the most motors and can throw in the most bodies.
Most likely and optimistically in my opinion this war will end by exhaustion and a Korea style ceasefire that might evolve into a long term tenuous peace. The land that Putin can hold on too or Ukraine can retake before a cease fire that could be a long time away is yet to be determined.
Whatever happens, we have got – The Maxim gun, and they have not
– Hilaire Belloc, The Modern Traveller, Citation1898
Full article: The history of business and war: introduction (tandfonline.com)
This extensive podcast https://kyivindependent.com/this-week-in-ukraine-ep-1/ is very long with Kyiv Independent reporter Francis Farrell, who has traveled to the front line in the east of Ukraine multiple times, reporting from Avdiivka, Sviatohirsk, and other locations, including Bakhmut. It is conducted in English.
I think it’s very balanced something lacking in much of the coverage coming from the US media, which zigs and zags trying to maintain an overall pro- Ukrainian perspective.
A huge problem even with Kyiv Independent coverage is the idea that retaking captured land in a coming offensive equates to victory for Ukraine.
Unfortunately Putin’s general staff has created defensive positions in depth that allow for strategic retreat all the way back to the pre- 2014 borders of the Russian Federation. It seems any rout of Russian forces that would result in the Ukrainian Army actually invading the Federation could result in the use of tactical nuclear weapons by Putin.
So NATO and the USA would want any advance to stop at the recognized borders. Putin would support another offensive back into Ukraine as part of his long war strategy. Alexander Dugin who our former host Eva recognized as a very dangerous force of historic Russian nationalism years ago can be called a philosopher of the cult of death and sacrifice and has always said that the experience of death is essential to Russian nationalism that supports explicitly a expansive imperial Russia.
Dugin almost looks forward to Russian troops retreating in a coming offensive in order to introduce tactical nuclear weapons into play and have the Russian population make greater commitments to the war.
Der Spiegel has published a rather lengthy article about how some German companies are becoming victims of the mafia practices of the Orbán government but don’t really dare complain about it openly out of fear of reprisal.
Doppelt genäht hält besser!
I already linked to that article …
And more info on regular people’s life (sorry, only in German):
Average inflation on foodstuff was 45% in Hungary!
From own experience I can say that some products’s prices rose almost 100%.
The article contains links to others describing the sorry life of average people in Hungary – and they still vote for Fidesz?
Of course it’s all the fault of Brsussels, Soros …
And so on.
The fact that in other EU countries inflation is mostly below 20% – that must be Soros’s fault too!
What a crazy country …
Is it a coincidence that among loonie repugs Soros is also named as standing behind the attacks on poor innocent Trump? If you google it you’ll find really crazy stuff.
Soros has been a Repug bogey man since at least 2010; you can still find stuff by charmers like Mark Levin and Glen Beck on line dating from then, (I first heard Mark Levin during a 2015 road trip around western USA).
The yanks invented Soros hate, Orban turned it into an artform; just like he got the idea of othering refugees (sadly) from us (Oz).
“Average inflation on foodstuff was 45% in Hungary!”
I have heard [and read] so many people complaining about that, BUT not heard NOR read any good explanation for HU/OV’s Record Inflation.
I have some thoughts about possible reasons, like:
–a lot of food coming from Ukraine [but inflation started way before Putin war]
–OV&Co’s are directly involved in the food market and only care about more profit [but haven’t any indication for this]
–what else could be??
Anybody here any clues or serious thoughts about this?
PS: only IF the real reasons are known, measures can be taken against this [unacceptably] high inflation!
Negative market development tends to be complicated and of course, if the market analysis-business doesn’t provide accurate and current data, very little can be done with positive effect.
Besides the factors you mention, there is the compounded effect of retail price-control while currency inflation drives down the value of the money during general rises in market prices and extra taxes, which also act to fuel that downward spiral.
Most of the minuses in that calculation eventually end up being paid by the consumers.
One reason I forgot to mention:
–most food imported, and therefore getting more expensive paralel with the forint going down [mainly caused by the myghti lidur’s policies in conflict with the EU Rule of Law]
I think it’s a fair assumption that current government involvement in commerce, infrastructure development and education + the systemic corruption, amount to impaired Hungarian maneuverability in the EU market. There’s lots of money to be made within the EU, but the government just isn’t ripe to the task of legislating for obtaining the full benefits of a big market like EU.
Simple as that.
If the energy the government put’s into national nostalgia and dreams of the past is channeled in a more relevant, constructive direction, much could be achieved.
Of course, that would mean giving up the piggyback ride on far-right US Republican politics AND the corruption.
Though we see the astronomical prices when shopping twice a week we have no real explanation.
Taxes maybe and higher wages to pay?
Some factors might also be the horrible rise in energy costs and of course the complications in handling those “special prices – where usually the cheap products are sold out. If you’re lucky you get two kg of cheap flour or two bottles of cheap milk but often the shelves are empty.
The prices for basic cheap food like Trapista cheese or margarine rose more than the prices for luxury items like Irish butter or Spanish ham – but these products were out of the reach of many people already before the price explosion.
I haven’t seen an analysis of this yet however – maybe the management people at Aldi or Lidl could answer those questions?
Fidesz is getting crazier and crazier re food!
Now they are fighting against Ukraine exporting cheap grain, oil seeds, eggs and even honey.
Would this make things too cheap?
Hungarian producers could no longer compete?
And at the same time we see the horrible inflation – for basic foodstuff it is higher than 50%!!!
Our neighbour who sells eggs has upped the price from 60 HUF to 100 HUF, she says she had to do this to make a living.
So obviously there are other factors behind the inflation.
Hungaryis turning from Orbanistan into Putinistan, just look at their so called Law for the protection of children.
Remember that Fidesz politician who also wrote the constitution (forgot his name) who was partaking at a gay gangbang in Brussels?
I wonder how they would treat him now.
At that time he just disappeared from public view …
The Popanz from Hungary must artificially increase the price of imports so that the local farmers survive … two weeks ago we were supposed to bring our neighbor a cauliflower 2400 Ft. the piece should have cost. We left it lying around.
The homosexually inclined Fidesz politician who climbs up and down the gutters in Brussels with a backpack full of drugs to live out his sexual inclinations, József Szájer. Rumor has it that he wrote the Hungarian constitution on his tablet on the way there and back. 😀
A fantastic report on the way the Russians (mis …) handled the Cuban crisis in 1962 – and the parallels between Khrushchev and Putin.
It describes in detail (based on info from Russia) how the rockets and the atomic bombs were sent to Cuba and installed and how near the world was to WW3.
Sergey Poletaev the head of the Wagner group has an essay appearing in the Russian media today titled in English translation “Sergey Poletaev: Why the battle for a ‘strategically unimportant’ town may decide the outcome of the Ukraine conflict.”
Because our host does not want links to the Russian media I do not provide any. Obviously Putin authorized it’s publication. Russia’s General Staff and supreme command are given some level of criticism in Poletaev‘s article. It is unclear why this was allowed.
German chancellor Scholz is on a visit to Bu*** – no not Budapest but Bukarest:
Kanzler Scholz, Rumäniens Präsident Klaus Iohannis, Moldaus Präsidentin Maia Sandu in Bukarest (google it)
So he doesn’t want to meet Orbán?
This happens when someone has unlimited power. A nice example of hypocrisy.
Petőfi Cultural Agency disbands its Board of Trustees for Translation Support Szilárd Demeter | Cushion (mandiner.hu)
When asked what these words of Demeter implicate, there is of course no answer on the question, just propaganda platitudes
.I Want to Break Free – it is not known whether the government would ban the Queen number | 24.hu
This is their “basic law”, exterminate every voice that doesn´t speak your words.
In this article today https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2023/04/szijjarto-peter-az-ukran-kulugyminiszter-meghivasa-serti-a-nato-egysegenek-elvet Szijjarto made it very clear that Hungary would block Ukrainian NATO membership unless “… the Ukrainians return to the Transcarpathian Hungarians the rights they had before 2015.”
I doubt that is true, because even if Ukraine restored language instruction for Ukrajnai magyarok living in Zakarpattia Oblast Putin would want Orban to block NATO membership still and Orbán csizmanyaló.
Such a move would probably be the worst thing Hungary could possibly do against the minority in Ukraine.
Never heard/read that word, but understand it anyway.
I think the best Hungarian word is “talpnyaló”.
Found a book titled “A talpnyaló temetése”, szovjet írók humoros írásai,
Could be a nice present for the myghti lidur…
Since I learned Hungarian in the USA I was raised using American phrases transferred to Hungarian. So here a bootlicker in an America English dictionary is defined as “ a person who flatters another in order to get ahead” or as a person who is overly deferential to another.
So Hungarians living here like my grandfather adapted common American words bastardizing Hungarian I guess. Bootlicker was one many probably.
When my Esztergom relatives have visited and talked with second and third generation American Hungarians they describe much of our Hungarian language as antiquated or I think one relative said it was nem fejlődött or something similar.
Eva once mentioned in a comment years ago that when she had returned to Hungary after many years her own Hungarian was somewhat dated.
The same thing has happened in the Mexican American community here. So Mexicans who came to Chicago in the 1940s for war industry jobs have incorporated all kind of American phrasing as have their children.
What is even stranger is in parts of Arizona where I go during parts of the winter apparently Spanish language is modified by aspects of indigenous Native American language.
I guess all languages evolve.
I understand what you stated about antiquated/dated language used in the Hungarian diaspora. I think that’s happening in all diasporas.
Though in this case with your “csizmányaló”, my gut feeling is that it’s a direct/mirror translation of the English/American “bootlicker”.
In my dictionary that’s translated into “talpnyaló”.
PS1: if “csizmányaló” would be an old Hungarian word, I think it would still be mentioned a dictionaries…
PS2: I would not be surprised if “talpnyaló” is a direct translation from German/Austrian
Having lived 4 years in the US, I recognize the linguistic peculiarities of the established immigrant communities. There is a tendency to cross-translate.
But that’s only natural, since the great waves of immigration are period-specific and changing imigrant ethnicites in the US takes great turns.
This, rather curious but factual, description of German speaking American citizens’ early compromises in the US describes the situation:
German as the Official Language of the United States – German-American and American English Dialects – UW–Madison (wisc.edu)
Here´s a little food for thought:
Putin Should Be Arrested in Hungary, Whatever Orban’s Chief of Staff Says | Balkan Insight
If Hungary entertains ideas of being taken seriously in NATO and EU politics, they have to get their act together, which is probably too much to ask of the Fidesz government.
Is Hadházy Ákos the only politician in Hungary? Or the other way around, can you call an anti-social cowardly gang of “brave” Hungarian bullies, who sneak in through the back door for fear of questions, politicians …
To answer your first question: he seems to be the only MP who is more interested in opposing corruption than turning a blind eye and jockeying for position within the internal battles of the opposition
And I think you know the answer to the second question!
Yes, the second question was why the journalists do not point out at every opportunity how the poorest prefer the rich through 27% VAT and that this is the central point in the Orban-think=fascism and in connection with the public ailing health system acts as a deliberate selection. Like a segregation of unworthy life back then. Exactly in such a way as the today’s Hungarian “family assistance” works. Also the revision effort of the Orban government is ignored. Yes the second question was not answered … 🙂 even if it has not sounded so.
This is how to start young with nonsense.
Makón általános iskolás gyerekekkel cipeltettek keresztet az utcán, hogy újrajátsszák Jézus Golgotára vezető útját (444.hu)
You can´t imagine that an adult has such an idea and are realizing it with innocent children.
In the 1950s in Germany things weren’t much better – I’ve brought many examples of the ruling clerical fascists in those times.
But we children did not agree, when we were 14 we did no longer go to church (protestants and catholics) but read books like 1001 nights and others which were on the catholic index.
So again Hungary is 50 or even 70 years behind – soon it will be 100 years:
Back to Horthy!
I just realised that In Germany the clerical fascists still have a lot of power.
From today 18 o’clock until 20 o’clock Saturday dancing in public is forbidden, clubs have to close (or just serve drinks)!
In criminal cases Jesus: sedition against the authorities and expulsion of corrupt money changers sentenced to death. Didn’t Orban once want to introduce the death penalty?
This story in the Kyiv independent today https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-moscow-patriarchate-priest-in-cherkasy-guilty-of-justifying-russian-aggression/ clearly explains that the apparently pro-Russian priest basically is publicly advocating the Orban formulation for an immediate ceasefire which would freeze Russian control of Ukrainian territory in place.
Of course Ukraine is under marshal law, Zelenskyy invoking. martial law at the start of the invasion initially did not define what restrictive measures would be put in place while the law is active.
One aspect of that appears to be allowing the SBU to investigate speech and communication that is determined to be in any way justifying the Russian invasion.
Here is the irony of this, Zelensky has invited Orban to visit Ukraine, but many of his public statements for immediate peace in Ukraine could be interpreted as violating Ukrainian law.
Orban of course if he went to Ukraine would be covered under what is called “immunity ratione personae”: that attaches to a limited group of senior officials, especially the Head of State, Head of Government, and diplomats, and the immunity of state officials on special mission abroad.
The USA does not have a constitutional provision for martial law, but it was effectively invoked during the US Civil War and there were arrests of even elected politicians in the north of the UDA who made statements in support of the right of the Southern states to leave the Union. They were eventually released and some crossed over to the Confederate States.
This from the Us veterans and Meidas
Veterans group DESTROYS Fox ‘News’ with POWERFUL new ad – YouTube
I am as a retired officer from US Army opposed to Fox News being formally banned from US military bases as the veterans group proposed. It would in fact be unconstitutional based on The First Amendment
to the US Constitution which protects freedom of the press, was adopted on December 15, 1791, as part of the Bill of Rights.
However, at least what I was taught as a US Army officer cadet in my course work on military justice I had an obligation to enforce the good order and discipline of the troops under my command.
So that could involve limiting soldiers access to news completely for brief periods of time. But banning Fox News totally would be unconstitutional I think.
Of course, one should not ban Fox. Just the fact that some veterans recognize the lies on Fox fascinated me.
I am looking forward to the day veterans speak against the free distribution of AR 15 assault weapons.
Of course, one should not ban these weapons.
It would be unconstitutional according to the second amendment signed on December 15th, 1791.
Your holy constitution, like the old religious books seem to be allergic to updates, let alone acknowledge some basic mistakes.
The second amendment as currently interpreted by the US Supreme Court no longer links it to what is called a well regulated militia.
So now it is clearly seen as a individual right of most residents to own guns including semiautomatic rifles. Which has become a big issue.
There is a process for amending the Constitution and it is designed to be very onerous.
It has been upheld that felons and those with mental health issues are prohibited from legally owning a gun. Felons are easy to block from buying guns because of criminal databases can be searched. Mental health records are confidential by laws in the USA.
The USA is very violent place compared to Europe, in many ways similar to Mexico, or parts of Africa where armed militias exist beyond governmental control.
Chicago just finished our mayoral election and the primary issue was crime. An African American candidate won who wants to focus on social policy solutions to violent crime as opposed to implementing a police state. I doubt it will produce quick results, but the heavy policing option will likely not work either. Chicago is a gunslinger town and its a risky place to live where I am often legally armed as are about possibly a hundred thousand residents in Chicago who are legally licensed gun owners in Chicago. We are a mess over here.
Isn´t your country where you have supermarkets to buy weapons because of the second amendment the recordholder by far for numbers of people killed by guns?
And do you not see yourself as the “good guy” walking through town with a gun?
And with this attitude you are part of the problem, because you will be the one refusing to give up your gun because of being the “good guy”.
And if the killing doesn´t stop your new mayor will be the one to blame.
The second amendment in your country is outdated, and I don´t mind any original purposes, because today this amendment is causing a lot of suffering.
This article just published https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/07/pentagon-leak-ukraine-documents/ contains this passage: “The documents appear to have been drawn from multiple reports and agencies, and concern matters other than Ukraine. Two pages, for example, are purportedly a “CIA Operations Center Intelligence Update,” and includes information about events concerning Russia, Hungary and Iran.”
I am totally not surprised the CIA is doing reports on Hungary and Orban. I searched to see if I could locate these leaked documents and was able to find them, but I believe it is a violation of US law for me to even open them so I did not. I am sure I can read about it somewhere without potentially violating US laws. The reporters covering this story have the protection of the First Amendment and even they are being very careful about what they are revealing.
It is obvious that the Russians know a great deal about the Ukrainian spring offensive and this is a huge problem. Numerous former US national security people speaking to the media without their identities being disclosed has verified the documents are not full forgeries, some could have been altered however.
The official line in Ukraine is the documents are all fake and part of a Russian disinformation campaign. Unfortunately both the New York Times and Washington Post have used former CIA officers who are not named to verify that the documents are not fake, but some data in a few may have been altered relating death totals for Russian troops. According to these analysts.
Have we seen this already?
The original article in German is behind a paywall, but this is free.
“Mafia” is the correct word for this.
The report contains many examples and names – from O1G’s father to his best friend M….
The maffia methods of the myghti lidur against foriegn owned companies is “naturally” also causing higher costs and therefore prices to rise, i.e.INFLATION!
Is there anything known about O1G’s MAFFIA methods in the food market?
the VAT eg, in Germany it’s only 7% for food and other basic stuff (books eg …) and there’s already talk about setting the VAT for food to zero.
In Hungary I don’t know except that max VAT is 27%.
And company taxes are also very strange I’ve heard.
But the VAT is so [world record] high since many years [since 2010/11?], when the myghti lidur installed his yoke on the people in Hungary, SO that should NOT have influence on the [EYU record!] inflation.
On the other hand MAFFIA methods with constantly changing [bullying!] “regulations” DOES!
Here is the Telex report on the document leak https://telex.hu/kulfold/2023/04/08/pentagon-nato-dokumentumok-szivargas-kozossegi-media-ukrajna-tavaszi-offenziva and it
does discuss “CIA Operations Center Intelligence Update,” and includes information about events concerning Russia, Hungary and Iran.” That I noted from a Washington Post report and located on social media by title but did not open because it is illegal to do so without a security clearance as a US citizen.
Telex did not hesitate to do so and here is what they wrote: “One of the documents marked “top secret” also mentions Viktor Orbán: the CIA assesses that the prime minister – despite the fact that Hungary is a NATO and EU member – is still close to Russia, but currently the United States considers it one of its most significant geopolitical opponents. Knowing the different narratives of the government, this is not at all surprising: for example, Fidesz and the US ambassador to Hungary are constantly talking back and forth , US President Joe Biden called Viktor Orbán a “totalitarian thug” along with the Polish Prime Minister and the President of Belarus, and the prime minister has already explained that, in his opinion, the pro-war international interest groups: American President Joe Biden and the American government are his opponents.”
My hunch is that a Trumpist traitor is behind the leak.
Trumpists would like to establish a kind of dictatorship in the US.
So they like dictators.
Putin is a dictator.
Therefore they like Putin
I agree if you ask yourself the question to whom it suits and to whom it benefits …
“… But the documents appear to have been obtained and leaked by someone who gained access to the US intelligence system, because some of them have markings indicating that their contents were not even shared with the closest US intelligence partners. …”
There is a big article on the search for the person, or persons responsible. Some that can be read in this article
The exact information in the document s on Orban’s double dealing was not discussed in that article, but there is some discussion about Turkey.
As I said in my earlier post I will not open any of these documents because of the illegality of doing so for a citizen of the USA.
Members of the media are protected by Supreme Court decisions on the 1st amendment to the US Constitution to some degree.
It is feared in the U.S. Dep of Defense that there is Russian SVR penetration. NATO allies are getting information about the Spring offensive cut off and only very high US and Ukrainian officials are in the loop now.
But the US also knows the SVR has people in the Zelensky administration. He has purged many, but there are more there it seems.
I have never been interested in politics in Ukraine, what was known was the corruption and the oligarchy. I may be corrected, but perhaps the war in Ukraine brings an opportunity for democracy. Something that Hungary, like the donkey his ears, got and know nothing to do with it. In the end, Hungary still trumps the then Ukraine.
“As I said in my earlier post I will not open any of these documents because of the illegality of doing so for a citizen of the USA.”
Istvan of course it would be sad if we had to read that a veteran from Chicago was sentenced to death. Because he was the one who read the “forbidden” documents. That could have happened to you also in the 15th century.
“As I said in my earlier post I will not open any of these documents because of the illegality of doing so for a citizen of the USA.”
Illegal to open “top secret” documents? Well that’s sad, but luckily in early 2003 some UK reportes opened the “top secret” NSA mail, of which they received a copy of an unknown source.
That mail showed that US intelligence services were doing more than their utmost best to influence the vote in the UNSC about that BS war in Iraq.
The resulting article at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/mar/02/usa.iraq
All background about who, what, where atc at https://www.accuracy.org/1104-the-katharine-gun-case/
PS1: recently watched the truthful film “Official Secrets” about this, highly recomended!
PS2: I more and more get the feeling that the current RS-UA war is [partly] caused by that 2003 war, especially the lies on which it was based! On for which in a fair world certain formerly high level US people should be held accountable!
There was also this revelation from the leaked documents appearing today in The NY Times relating to fighting in Bakhmut. The document outlined how Ukrainian forces “were almost operationally encircled by Russian forces in Bakhmut,” as of Feb. 25, the (NY)Times reported. The documents show top Ukraine leaders offering grim assessments in the ongoing fight for Bakhmut, with General Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s director of military intelligence, saying that the situation was “catastrophic” at the time of the report. The Times also reported that Roman Mashovets, an advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak, said that Ukrainian forces esteem was low in Bakhmut. “Mashovets reported that, for those reasons, the morale in Bakhmut was low, with the Ukrainian forces under the impression that they were almost operationally encircled,” the assessment read.
Of course Zelensky is adamant about holding on to any part of Bakhmut he can, no matter the cost in Ukrainian lives for a town all military analysts argue is of limited strategic importance, but of great political importance according to Zelensky.
The time table for the spring offensive by Ukrainian forces after the leaks seems confused. But what is called the “order of battle” (see https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_of_battle) for Ukraine has been revealed to the Russians but not where spearhead of attacks will be.
The Russian combat engineers of course are using that in formation to develop their defensive positions and the Russian high command for troop deployments and mobilization of additional troops based on conscription plans for an additional 300,000 infantry.
Background info on the leaks and how they were distributed:
The Russian Military Chronicle Telegram channel posted an article today arguing the leaked U.S. documents are likely part of a CIA disinformation campaign. The “purpose of this planted misinformation may be to underreport the actual number of combat-ready Ukrainian units to be deployed for the offensive or to distract attention from other events related to the real operation.“ If so it would be one of the CIA’s more ingenious moves and one has to wonder why Putin is allowing pro-Russian sites to post those documents?
Total misinformation and the resulting confusion is the name of the game in info-warfare.
Assuming that both sides are fully aware of eachother’s positions and movements, the deciding factors are the few unknowns, such as: How fast and far can they really move and keep shooting (and how accurately)? and what are the capabilities of the “thin” positions?
The air-battle is a dark horse at this point and so the “stingers”, sharpshooters, mortar/shoulder launched operators, drone operators and other micro-units, all with surveillance connectivity, will play a big role between the heavy exchanges.
Funny Fidesz fascists!
They are whining about Mr Pressman (US ambassador to Hungary) is complaining about Hungary’s positions in EU, NATO and the war-
But at the same time they want to show off their veto power – maybe in exchange for some money?
Ist der Ruf erst ruiniert lebt’s sich völlig ungeniert!
It is an assessment of the Hungarian leader stating that he is still close to Russia, Yahoo News wrote. But it also says that Hungary, as an EU and NATO member, considers the United States “one of its most significant geopolitical adversaries.”
As crazy as it seems, the far-right “Christian” national conservative, populist stance of demonstrating spite against the established international order Hungary sits in, aligns with larger parts of the population. It works well for Fidesz.
You probably are right: It works well for Fidesz. But for the average Hungarian?
If it really all is the fault of EU, NATO, USA then shouldn’t Hungary leave, follow Brexit and start a new Union?
Together with Turkey, Afghanistan and the other …istans?
You know the old joke maybe?
We would arrange a fantastic good bye party – a month after they’re really gone.
Sure, I know the joke!
But Ironically enough, teaming up with the nations you mention, would only bring Hungary closer to the things they hate the most and want to avoid at all costs: Islam and poly-ethnicity.
If there was a way of jig-sawing the country out of the continent and move it out in the Black Sea, with a drawbridges to Romania and Crimea, all would be good. Orbán could finally become a salt water admiral, the money and jobs in the EU within reach and the oligarch trade intact. And then, a much needed, gigantic water reservoir would arise in the void.
The Washington Post did this today with an article titled “Egypt secretly planned to supply rockets to Russia, leaked”(https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/10/egypt-weapons-russia/)
Hungary is not mentioned in the Post article, but for those of us who follow PM Orban’s global trips we know that he made a trip and had a meeting with the military dictator of Egypt President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi just in February (https://hungarytoday.hu/viktor-orban-holds-talks-in-cairo/) one of their discussion topics was Ukraine.
Based on today’s Post article it appears the discussions taking place in Egypt of highly secretive nature were bugged which was stated nicely in the Post article as “While the document does not state how the U.S. government gleaned the details of the Egyptian deliberations, some of the information in the recently leaked documents appears to come from signals intelligence…” The CIA document leaked was written one week before Orban’s visit so at least to me it seems obvious that Orban’s discussions with El-Sisi could have been recorded.
Was Orban acting as a intermediary for Putin in February and did he have some knowledge of possible weapons shipments to Russia from Egypt? I am pretty sure the CIA and the US Ambassador to Hungary David Pressman might know that.
Today’s Magyar Nemzet has an article https://magyarnemzet.hu/velemeny/2023/04/ime-az-amerikai-politika that Márton Gyöngyösi from Jobbik might be a CIA agent. (The subheading of the article reads in English “When did anti-Semitic Márton Gyöngyösi become a CIA agent?” Then Magyar Nemzet ran this article today https://magyarnemzet.hu/belfold/2023/04/ruszkik-haza-ellenkampany-indult-amerikai-penzbol which claims the US government is now funding and running a campaign in Hungary against Orban’s pro-Russian immediate cease fire plan, no doubt designed by the CIA.
But what Magyar Nemzet does not admit is Orban now knows none of his secret discussions were secret in the least from the CIA and the other NATO allies. He is understood to be a Putin operative by the US, maybe these leaks were not all a bad thing.
This story https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/10/leaked-documents-ukraine-counteroffensive/ is also worth reading.
I made this comment on this article elsewhere today:
Really that the NSA and DOD believe that the spring offensive would make limited territorial gains is not a surprise at least to me based on comments General Milley has made publicly. But the offensive is still important because what ever territory is gained creates a better situation for Ukraine if a ceasefire in place, is followed by a Korea type armistice. An outright defeat for the offensive would result in Putin going for complete subjugation of Ukraine and more prolonged bloodshed.
Secrets sure are short-lived, these days.
Re reality in Hungary:
Magyar Posta is closing down many offices in smaller villages, hey make not enough money.
So like the privatisation of the motorways the next step will probably be the privatisation of the post service – I heard that Tiborcz and Mészaros are already waiting for it.
Of course another reason for this is that all Hungarians are online, don’t need letter, postcards etc anymore. (End of joke)
Latest news from Hungary’s foreign minister :
The Hungarian minister’s trip to Moscow was unusual, making him one of the only officials from an EU country to have met with Russian officials in the capital since its troops invaded Ukraine more than a year ago.
The visit was all about cheap energy for Hungary – and of course good connections to Moscow, the Guardian reports. Szijártó said:
As long as the issue of energy supply is a physical issue and not a political or ideological one, like it or not, Russia and cooperation with Russia will remain crucial for Hungary’s energy security.
“As long as the issue of energy supply is a physical issue and not a political or ideological one”
Ah, who again made energy supply political? E.g.energy through Ukraine? The Killer in the Kremlin! So making new [?] deals about energy supply IS political!!
The “kis kakaska” is, as usual, LYING!!!
PS: 1.when did the [in]famous “rezsicsökkentés” start? in 2013/14 in the campaign before the 2014 elections!
2.when did the myghti lidur [secretly] agree with the KitK about the Paks nuclear plant? in 2013!
3.did they only [secretly] agree about Paks only? well other energy supplies is likely been spoken/agreed about, so the KitK might have given campaign suggestions and has O1G since then by his b*lls!
This Telex article https://telex.hu/belfold/2023/04/12/bloomberg-egy-magyar-bank-tisztviseloire-is-szankciot-vethet-ki-az-usa very clearly indicates that the US government is considering sanctions against some not named Hungarian government officials for corruption. Could one be the boss himself?
This Fidesz article today https://magyarnemzet.hu/belfold/2023/04/a-dollarmedian-keresztul-uzentek-az-amerikaiak-pressman-szerdan-bejelentest-tesz indicates that Orban is aware of the possibility of sanctions bing imposed by the USA very soon.
Of course the Fidesz media presents this as an effort by the USA to force Hungary to drop its stance supporting peace. The reality likely is the CIA and other western intelligence agencies have evidence of Orban’s duplicitous dealings with Putin and Russia.
Now that some of this has been leaked the floodgates could be opening against the Orban government much faster than US officials would have liked.
It appears our host Istvan made an astute decision to go offshore when he did. If US sanctions start against Hungarian officials the economic environment of Hungary will go to hell.
“A mountain was in labor, uttering immense groans,
and on earth there was very great expectation.
But it gave birth to a mouse.”
The announcement was a disappointment.
Slow in coming, and too timid to boot.
But this is the standard that you can expect from the Biden administration.
We shall see how far he Hungarian government can stretch its elastic pants, in the attempt to keep straddling the widening gap between EU, Nato and Russia.
It appears that Telex was guessing some Fidesz leadership figures might some how have sanctions imposed on them.
I think it’s very likely the Biden administration is just starting its active measures against Orban and his dealings with the Russians. I am sure the CIA station chief in Budapest is a very busy person these days. Orban is like the mouse who roared going up against the CIA in particular, they are not a kind and gentle crew. They gave me the chills in Vietnam when I saw them lurking around in civilian dress with automatic weapons during the battle of An Loc and their Vietnamese was better than mine.
I doubt the great minds in Washington DC want to push Orban into Putin’s loving embrace, they are offering Orban a chance to remain in the Western family as the black-sheep cousin.
That’s probably very much what concerns the more sensible people around the Hun. govt. circles, by now.
They know all about the non-nice nature of secret operations, and might prefer the somewhat more humane “something-for-something”-regime of Western powers over sudden death.
Leaks seem overdue.
“Orban is like the mouse who roared”
I hope he is not a winning mouse. And he is definitely not as funny as Peter Sellers:
And the American far-right media-circus eyes a profit in the Trump circus. What they lose on the swings, they hope to make up on the merry-go-rounds.
Look who’s back: Donald Trump’s big return to Fox News – Prince Rupert Northern View (thenorthernview.com)
Well it started https://telex.hu/belfold/2023/04/12/david-pressman-sajtotajekoztato-egyesult-allamok
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/11/world/europe/leaked-documents-russia-ukraine.html this article published yesterday clearly indicates the possibilities of crazy things happening are being gamed out by the NSA.
“If you’ve seen the video where Russians cut the head off a Ukrainian soldier — the Hungarians are paying for the knife,” Oleg Ustenko, economic adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, told POLITICO on Wednesday. Really I don’t think Orban is any longer invited to visit Kyiv, but just guessing.
The Debrecen university banned a lecture about ecological and economical consequences of the planned Chinese electric battery factory/
It took place outside the university:
Sorry, only in German,
Conservative (!!!) newspaper FAZ reports on Fidesz’s friendship with Russia and that the USA are not happy at all with it.
Did you know that since the Russian invasion of Unkraine began foreign minister Szijártó visited Putin four times.?
At least that’s how often he was in Moscow …
I read that the US could impose sanctions against certain HU politicians. Some sanctions have already been imposed on a Hungarian senior management official and two Russians from the Russian Budapest-based International Investment Bank.
It is not impossible some of those discussions with Szijártó were somehow under surveillance by the CIA too.
The USA had very high level information on the target dates for the Russian invasion of Ukraine and advised Zelensky well before the invasion it was coming. President Zelensky refused to believe it, but after it happened accepted that the CIA was correct. He had been warned the Russian SVR had a hit team in Kiev to kill him and he went to a secure location and authorized the liquidation of the Russian SVR murder team which the Ukrainians did resulting in a fire fight in the government center of Kyiv at the start of the invasion.
Both the US CIA and Russian SVR are goo at what they do and it is not always pretty.
Leaker of U.S. secret documents worked on military base, friend says
Yes when I read that detailed report in the Washington Post last night. I thought to myself this article is authorized by the US Dept of Justice, and the National Counterintelligence and Security Center of the FBI.
Really the Post’s article was driven by one source who may have had direct contact with the leaker on a social media site. The source was young and the Post got permission from the person’s mother to do the extensive interview. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/12/discord-leaked-documents/)
My retired military friends and I were up late into the night discussing on line that story and to be honest we were all horrified of the possibility of yet another member of the military with a security clearance again violating our laws and their sworn oath.
But we all also were convinced the FBI wanted this story out there so hopefully others who were on the Discord site, an online platform popular with gamers with additional information on the leaker might contact the FBI.
All of us discussing this last night were very aware that the US Department of Defense is trying to recruit on line gamers to the US military because those skills are transferable to modern high tech warfare being fought on computers monitors. Also the DOD is very aware both the Chinese and Russian are similarly recruiting gamers.
I stated during our discussion last night that a big problem with recruiting gamers is that some of them have what I call anarchist sympathies and that the vetting process for them may need to be much more intensive. One retired General said it was not limited to anarchist sympathies, but likely included some with neo-Nazis sympathies.
The FBI has identified the leaker as an Air national guardsman, whose name is Jack Teixeira, oversaw a private online group named Thug Shaker. They are searching for him now apparently.
He has been arrested according to the news.
A guy who’s now 21 years old but was still a teenager when he started distributing secret documents to which he had access???
And no one in the CIA and other security orgs realised it?
Doesn’t look good for the USA – in a novel or a movie this would be seen as nonsense and funny – if it wee accepted at all.
“anarchist sympathies” The group in which the leaks were released is united by their mutual love of weapons, military equipment and God, so one description … as the General thinks we need crazy without crazy.
Meanwhile, the Pentagon has begun restricting information about who receives its top-secret daily intelligence from the government. Some U.S. officials who used to receive the briefing materials on a daily basis are now no longer receiving them as DoD cuts its distribution lists.
Yes this tightening of classified material has happened before and it again expanded.
I only had a very low security clearance when in the Army on what is called a need to know basis.
Anything I saw or read was done in a secure room on a military base, nothing in and nothing out of that room.
When I came out I was subject to random searches by military intelligence. I think use of electronic communications has made this all more complex. There was also a law passed after the 9/11 attacks which mandated intelligence sharing by federal agencies that could also be part of the problem.
What the WP reports:
He yells a series of racial and antisemitic slurs into the camera, then fires several rounds at a target.
This is similar to the bevaviour and actions of many people working in police or the military.
In Germany several groups of right wingers with similar activities were found – and there probably are many more yet undiscovered.
For me it’s been a question for a long time:
Why are there so many extreme right wingers/fascists in these security services – which are supposed to help the people?
So this Magyar Nemzet article https://magyarnemzet.hu/gazdasag/2023/04/magyarorszag-kilep-a-nemzetkozi-beruhazasi-bankbol indicates Orban was scared by the US carrying out sanctions against the Russian spy bank and Hungary is formally withdrawing from it.
Of course those of us on this site know the history of Orban’s peacock dances and all accept that as a tactical response by Orban. The US ambassador hopefully will not declare victory. The US intelligence services need to destroy Orban by demonstrating his operatives have been colluding with Russia to undermine sanctions. That Orban’s peace plan is not a peace plan at all but a political cover for supporting a ceasefire agreement that would allow Russia to keep territory it illegally seized.
I have no problem with a legitimate critique of Zelensky’s government and calls for an end to the horrible slaughter taking place in Ukraine started by the madman Putin. But Orban’s peace offensive is a total fraud and the US must finish the job on destroying Orban and wake up the people of Hungary to betrayal of Orban to the Hungarian martyrs of 1956.
To be honest, I think the quick withdrawal from the bank is not peacock dancing. Pressman commands and Orban follows up. That´s how it looks.
More sanctions to come.
New sanctions are being prepared: former Hungarian government officials could be expelled from America (szabadeuropa.hu)
When did the US start the job to be finished, and exactly what was it?
It seems obvious that a decision was reached by the US National Security Council that Orban was posing a danger to NATO’s support for Ukraine sometime after Biden took office.
The CIA collected evidence on Orban and others in Hungary that may have been aiding Russia evade sanctions. Some of that CIA surveillance of team Orban was in the leaked documents. I am assuming key NATO allies, UK, France, and Germany were advised of the NSA decision. But none of that was leaked.
How they deal with Orban from here is the interesting question. I assume there is some evidence of MOL facilitating Russian oil dealings and stuff relating to the nuclear plant and the Russians too.
All the investigative stuff we read in 444 and Telex is read by the CIA station chief in Budapest and sent on to Langley for additional analysis. Presumably analysis was done the whole time Trump was in office, but no action was taken because Trump and Orban are ideologically friends.
But unlike all of us the CIA and other intelligence agencies can use various methods to go deeper than these very good Hungarian journalists can.
Of course, I am reacting on your sentences at the end of your post.
I did not see any start to destroy the Viktor. And making him unpopular still doesn´t work his polling numbers get better by the day.
This article in the Telex today shows how deep the propaganda goes. Today I checked Origo several times, and every time a new headline.
It is the most visited site, and the headline banner remains even if you click on an “article”.
Telex: Putyin bölcs vezetőként, Zelenszkij alkoholista hazudozóként jelenik meg az Origo rendkívüli híreiben
I think the USA will increase the pressure on Hungary and so do others for example in this article https://visegradinsight.eu/the-uss-warning-shot-what-sanctions-against-a-russian-spy-bank-mean-for-budapest/
To Istvan (Chicago) April 14, 2023 05:15 The Visegrad article clearly states that ir is about isolating the Viktor. That was already going on. It is the only thing the NATO and EU members can do. And of course, not giving money and fight the laws of the regime in Strassburg.
Domestically, as the article confirms, they have no chance against the propaganda machine.
The regime is a group of lawyers who are specialized in killing and punishing any resistance or other opinion. See examples like education and healthcare. They are helped by most Christian religion groups, who happily accept new or reconstructed churches and are now able to claim other buildings like schools. In return they spread the myth of saint Viktor saving Magyarorszag.
If everything really breaks apart, there is a chance the people will stand up in the countryside. But only maybe.
The article says it will be a protracted process and correctly assumed Orban’s Fidesz friends would rally to him immediately.
If President Biden doesn’t win a second term or can’t run because of health issues that longer term strategy will fail especially if Trump god forbid returns to power.
Of course it is not impossible that at some point the US National Security Council will resort to outright regime change in Hungary, change like I helped with during the Panama invasion in 1989.
We have overthrown formally elected governments one way or another in the past when a decision was made to do so unilaterally. I also saw that happen in Grenada which we invaded directly too.
Even the Fidesz propagandists have warned of that possibility in the future. For the present that is unlikely because it would create more trouble than it is worth.
So we will slowly make life economically more miserable for Hungarians while Orban remains in power like we are doing with Venezuela under both Trump and Biden. Trump actually tried to stage a coup which was a total fiasco and now we have reverted to strangulation again which has created a refugee crisis. Orban has much to fear especially since the USA sent two sanctions specialist from the Treasury Department to talk directly with European bankers last week.
Let´s hope it works.
I hope so, Orban has many cards to play in this game and Victoria Nuland at the State Department does know Orban well. We have an ambassador now who is neither a fool nor afraid of Orban. Those are good things that could portend positive change for Hungary.
But my own extended family just hates when the big nations talk down to Hungary or are perceived as arrogant. Arrogance is one of the USA’s many faults. Orban knows how to play to that sentiment.
Regarding arrogance, The Trump administration and its “diplomatic” corps demonstrated new and previously unheard levels of arrogance toward for the old allies of the US. Hungary still hasn’t seen the ugly side of that, yet.
Orban’s Friday radio address shows he does not want to fight with Biden https://telex.hu/belfold/2023/04/14/usa-magyarorszag-kapcsolat-orban-viktor-david-pressman .
By the way Telex has done a good reporting job on the spy bank sanctions issue and again with this report.
I think Orban’s Friday prayers are naive in nature. A thinking crutch for his clientele “what to think” and Telex is the first to believe and spread it. Orban has never changed, he has always been what he has been and if Orban’s tone is supposed to change, it is because of the Hungarian hard of hearing and vision.
I was amazed that this Magyar Nemzet article had most facts correct https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2023/04/nuklearis-haboru-kuszoben-allunk
But I think the most likely scenario for nuclear war starting in Ukraine is not over weapons shipments, but a huge Russian strategic blunder during a Ukrainian offensive that leads to a Russian collapse. Then a tactical attack ordered by Putin seem terrifyingly possible.
The Russian military engineers have wisely put in place entrenchments going all the way back to the pre- 2014 borders. Allowing for fighting retreats and inflicting casualties on the Ukrainian Army. This reduces the possibility of that nightmare unless Putin goes Hitler like, ordering not one inch of a retreat.
But Hitler said:
If I’m going down all of Germany is going down too – and most of the high ranking Nazis knew what would happen to them after the Allies’s victory:
Death by hanging for all their crimes- that’s why they stayed with him until the bitter end, except for just a few officers.
He had absolute power – is Putin on the same level?
I don’t think so – yet!
Actually up to now Putin has agreed with strategic withdrawals of Russian forces. There are claims in the western media at points Putin opposed retreating.
Putin obviously was irrational in terms of the whole invasion in hindsight. But both Putin and the US CIA thought the Russian forces would take Kyiv relatively fast.
The Ukrainians and Russian tactical mistakes (the small size of the Russian invasion force in particular that was no where near the 3 to 1 ratio needed for likely success) proved both the CIA and Putin wrong.
Once it became obvious to the Russian high command their quick attack was a failure Putin agreed with a change to a war of attrition strategy that reverted to WWI style trench warfare combined with bombardment of the whole of Ukraine.
The current strategy is in my opinion irrational because the Russians even if they somehow won the war of attrition are left with a nightmare of casualties and a wrecked Ukraine. General Milley the chair of the joint US Chiefs of Staff was right saying months ago the Russians have already lost in that sense. But that leaves aside the politics of war related to Putin’s rule.