Sebastian Gorka "will be deputy assistant to the president and serve as senior director for counterterrorism, a role housed within…
(I Get By) With a Little Help from My Friends
An opinion piece by “Pantanifan”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh40p3x1eIs [“I’m a democratically-elected Prime Minister”]
Orbán Viktor has been Hungary’s Prime Minister since 2010 (and between 1998 and 2002), setting up the ‘System of National Cooperation’ (NER), and talking about an “illiberal democracy”. Although he likes to micromanage and control every policy detail, even the most brutal dictators can’t govern without support.
Compared to other countries, the turnover of Ministers in Hungary is very low; Mr. Orbán has a very limited number of trusted confidants in a few key sectors. My list of support pillars and those who exercise power is not meant to be exhaustive, but is aimed at provoking debate on some of these issues and how to tackle them:
- The Public Prosecutor (Polt Péter): Chief Prosecutor between 2000 and 2006 and continuously since 2010; if the EU finds that one of your trusted oligarchs has been stealing its money, you can always rely on the trusted prosecutor to sort it out, wait for everything to go quiet and end the prosecution a few years later for “lack of evidence” (you can’t really find evidence if you don’t look for it). Appointed long-term, he has enjoyed Orbán’s trust for more than 20 years, but has no real power of his own (without Viktor). In theory, his current mandate only expires in 2028! Corruption exists everywhere, including in Hungary before 2010, but a system of openly state-run corruption on a huge scale is exceptional within the EU.
- The Secret Service (Pintér Sándor): A member of the Communist Party under the Socialist regime and a police and national security specialist, he has been Orban’s faithful lieutenant in all his administrations. One of the few ministers with genuine power of his own, the Minister of the Interior (since 2010) would have been responsible for the recent Pegasus software spying scandal. Why does Orbán trust him to such an extent? Does the PM not have enough expertise of his own in this area or does Pintér have some information on Orbán’s activity prior to 1989? Given that Fidesz has been in power for the last 12 years and still haven’t released the files from the Communist era, we can safely assume that some senior members of FIDESZ have something to hide.
- The “Oligarchs”: With the right connections, you don’t even need to understand how business works, as a trusted member of the “inner circle” you can go from being an old school friend of the PM and a simple gas fitter (Mészáros Lőrinc) to Hungary’s richest man, with a luxury lifestyle, mainly thanks to millions of euros in EU funds. But Mészáros or Tiborcz (who of course married Orban’s daughter and is also the beneficiary of millions of euros in public funding) don’t hold real power themselves, as they could both be destroyed in a moment if they fell out of favor with “the boss” – see what happened to Simicska Lajos, for example, when he criticized the Prime Minister.
- Economic policy (Matolcsy György): Firstly as Minister of Economics (2000-2002 and 2010-2013), the mad professor, father of unorthodox economic policy in Hungary and Governor of the Hungarian Central Bank (since 2013, appointed until 2025) is our PM’s go-to man for economic policy. Orbán doesn’t really understand economics, but trusts Matolcsy and allows him to freely criticize Minister of Finance Varga, who is only there to implement Mr. Orbán’s latest ideas (e.g. income tax refunds before the election). Former Fidesz-appointed Finance Minister and Central Bank Governor Járai Zsigmond disagreed with Matolcsy about economic policy and has been out of favor ever since.
- The media: Any independent examination of the media situation in Hungary would quickly uncover the real situation: no opposition or even independent spokesmen or women allowed to comment on state-owned media, failure to cover major events until the “official position” of the government has been clarified, persecuting and closing down popular anti-government media, huge amounts of taxpayers’ money wasted on government propaganda campaigns (anti-Soros, anti-migrants, anti-Gyurcsány, “national consultations”). Not to mention the “attack dogs”, such as Bayer Zsolt, who was awarded an Order of Merit of the Hungarian Republic in 2016, three years after his comments in Magyar Hírlap, as quoted on Wikipedia: Bayer referred to the killings of Marian Cozma and Gergely Sávoly, where Roma were suspected of involvement, and wrote that many gypsies are “animals… unfit to live among people” and “potential murderers [who] should not exist.”
- Greater Hungary and electoral law: As far as the 2022 election is concerned, whether or not you agree with Hungarian citizens living outside the country’s borders being allowed to vote, history suggests that around 95% of voters in Transylvania, for example, will choose Fidesz! But if that’s not enough, Fidesz voters in neighboring countries are also encouraged to vote in Hungary, so they could actually vote twice (with free bus travel provided), unless a strong, independent electoral commission takes action to prevent this. Needless to say Hungary’s electoral commission is neither strong nor independent. And then of course there is the questionable vote-counting system, which suspiciously suffered an alleged “computer-says-no” breakdown at a crucial time in the 2018 elections.
- Foreign policy: Vladimir Putin. Although nominally Hungary’s Foreign Minister is Szíjjártó Péter, he is widely seen as a mere spokesman for Mr. Orbán, without any real power. The PM could certainly replace him tomorrow if he wanted to, but just look at Hungary’s foreign policy: causing disruption and trying to weaken the EU from within, refusing to condemn Belarus (including its use of migration for political purposes), stoking up Hungarian nationalism in Ukraine and refusing to support any bid by Ukraine for NATO membership, close ties with Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkey and China, condemning the post-Trump US at every turn, failing to take climate change seriously, Mr. Putin couldn’t be more satisfied if he were personally in charge of Hungary’s foreign policy…
Well I don’t know if Kyiv is going to fall tomorrow, but it is obvious there is a lack of…
Voila, the “Council of Judges” (OBT) has already submitted to Orban's "reorganization" by the afternoon. https://obt-jud.hu/sites/default/files/ulesek/Osszefoglalo_2024.11.20.pdf
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Nice post Pantanifan, I particularly like Putin for foreign policy.
Yes the list of things to change in Hungary is almost endless. Sadly, I don’t see how the opposition even if united behind MZP can actually win. I was in Bp these past days, I saw a signature drive to start a referendum against Fudan University but I understand the quorum is far from being reached. I don’t know though when this campaign started and what can be expected in the end. Any information about this would be appreciated.
Another bit in the picture, the news reported that Antal Rogán’s “propaganda ministry” has decreed that all banks should send letters to their customers setting out the benefits of the interest moratorium decreed earlier, specifying the sums for half a year ahead. How would anyone know the IR of the volatile HUF in, say April doesn’t concern Mr. Rogan, the point is to have this propaganda run before the election, and on someone else account. Not to mention the ordering of the private cos to carry propaganda for the regime.
Fascism it is folks.
Yes the Russian connections inside the Fidesz operation will become a huge problem if Putin pulls the trigger on the Ukraine at some point. At least for the moment Putin seems to have pulled back some military forces from the border. The focus of virtually all US strategic analysis is devoted to China right now, even though Biden has tried to balance this his numerous statements on Russia.
I think its very clear and Putin knows this, the USA will not support the admission of Ukraine to NATO any time soon, and if Russia was to take more Ukraine territory our response will be limited to additional economic sanctions against Russia that can be avoided by Putin in many ways. The truth is China is planning on a full scale invasion of Taiwan some time in the future and the USA cannot abandon the island because of its production of advanced microchips critical to numerous industries in the USA. (This article from 2020 still remains true https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/why-taiwan-is-at-the-heart-of-a-microchip-struggle/ ).
Currently the US is even deploying US Coast Guard vessels to the Taiwan straits in addition to constantly rotating US warships and most likely nuclear armed submarines. (see https://www.stripes.com/branches/navy/2021-08-27/taiwan-strait-us-navy-coast-guard-china-) Our armed forces are currently not capable of actively taking on both Russia and China together in a conventional warfare confrontation at the same time and launching a strategic attack on Russia is inconceivable. Europe will have to become the major military deterrent to Russia’s expansionist visions back into Central Europe, up to now there has been no interest in assuming that role. Orban realizes this too and creeps ever more closely to becoming a vassal state for Putin’s Russia.
“Europe will have to become the major military deterrent to Russia’s expansionist visions back into Central Europe, up to now there has been no interest in assuming that role. Orban realizes this too and creeps ever more closely to becoming a vassal state for Putin’s Russia.”
I know you see things through a strategic military lens (ususally very important in international affairs), but I’m not sure whether this is the real reason for Orban’s support of Putin’s Russia in this case, I can think of 2 more possible explanations:
1) As “Zoli” would have pointed out by now on hungarianspectrum, Europe is dependent on Russia for oil and gas and Hungary needs to ensure constant supply at the best possible price;
2) Rumours of a Russian “kompromat” on Orbán, who had a sudden road-to-Damascus type conversion in 2009, from his previous “Russkies go home” message to making Hungary Russia’s closest ally within the EU
1) Putin needs much more our money than we need his gas. Not even the Soviet Union in the darkest days of the cold war ever used gas as weapon – and they had the chance to do so.
2) Yes.