July 1st, 2023

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Don Kichote
Don Kichote
July 1, 2023 22:38

Apparently Twiter is blocked … only in the EU?

wolf
wolf
July 2, 2023 09:03
Reply to  Don Kichote

For me it works – maybe was a technical problem?
Mr Pressman’s moving speech in Bp on the eve of July 4 aka Independence Day:
https://dailynewshungary.com/american-ambassador-washington-focused-on-hungary-follows-orbans-choices/

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
July 2, 2023 14:57
Reply to  Don Kichote

So frequent users who are not certified apparently are blocked in the USA. He apparently believes twitter has become the primary training ground for AI chat systems.

I now have an account with ChatGPT and it improves only with use. It learns from your questions and demands and indeed does produce some nonsense.

It’s Hungarian capabilities seem beyond google. But your question must be posed to it in Hungarian to get better results in my opinion.

I experiment with it a little everyday. It already has an estimated 100 million users. I discovered you can’t use it and use a proxy server. You absolutely surrender all your AI searches and questions to the big AI in the sky, it obviously researches you supposedly to optimize your results.

For example it seemed to have had access to parts of my U.S. Army service records and actually knew of an arrest I had while in college that resulted in no conviction. That arrest was prior to electronic arrest records and took place in Wyoming. I have to assume old arrest records unless legally expunged have been digitalized now even in Wyoming, but going back to the late 1960s amazes me.

It definitely is opening many doors to many people, doors that maybe need to stay closed.

Don Kichote
Don Kichote
July 2, 2023 16:42

I didn’t have an account on Twitter until now and I could read it.

AI will significantly change our lives just like the www changed everything.

Honestly it is scary … also that Twitter is owned by a person who is acting dumb on Twitter to boot. Forgive those who draw a connection with racism and fascism. Such billionaires can buy the judges who hang us. 🙁

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
July 2, 2023 19:15
Reply to  Don Kichote

There is no doubt AI will eliminate jobs. It does a reasonably good job doing predictive analytics once you frame the question you want answered properly.

It obviously gets to read your mind, and frequently it asks back -do you mean this?

My understanding is it can do art work depending on your software package. Or create animations based on topics or story lines. But I haven’t experimented with any of that as yet.

Don Kichote
Don Kichote
July 2, 2023 21:13

Istvan if then simulate where Orban’s hate policy leads economically and socially. In the third Reich was then quickly declared unworthy life.

Even better why no one has complained about the tax system that disproportionately “asks” the poor to pay. Maybe you have to ask if the Hungarians understood that, if the answer is no – Orban can abolish the school. It will change much national socialist view.

Phil S. Stine
Phil S. Stine
July 2, 2023 13:32

apparently it (twit) is blocked for anyone without an account

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
July 2, 2023 14:21
Reply to  Phil S. Stine

Musk declared war on AI training going on using twitter without paying him. So he has ordered some blocking of non-certified users.

Don Kichote
Don Kichote
July 2, 2023 22:44
Reply to  Phil S. Stine

Thanks Phil it helped, as I’m sure you read, but all the information “who I follow” and “who follows me” leads to a profile. I had to follow someone no matter who to open an account, is that normal? Same in Facebook with likes if the owner wants it he can do anything with it. One is already afraid to press a wrong button.

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
July 2, 2023 14:02

In this article https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/2/7409489/index.amp Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba took on a number of positions Orban adopted in the Bild interview. In particular the argument that Ukraine simply can’t defeat Russia and that Ukraine was no longer a sovereign country because it was completely dependent on weapons and financial aid from the West.

Then Kuleba was reported to have stated he does not consider Orbán an ally of Putin, “but the political perception is very similar in his office and in the Kremlin.” I suspect since Ukraine is desperately seeking admission to both NATO and the EU and neither organization can expel Hungary he limits his criticism of Orban.

It also may relate to Ukraine’s secret plan (well actually not so secret plan ) for establishing a long term peace with Russia that was discussed in this Washington Post article https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/30/cia-director-burns-ukraine-counteroffensive/
In that article the basic Ukrainian longer term strategy is to push Russia back to its 2014 borders (and laying siege to occupied Crimea) with a persistent offensive that could last a year involving massive casualties. Forcing Russia into a ceasefire agreement.
NATO would be the lynchpin of enforcement of the ceasefire which might evolve into a more or less permanent agreement. Possibly even with NATO troops on the Russian Ukrainian border.

So if this “secret peace plan” is real at all then it depends on Hungary agreeing to it and not blocking a role for NATO forces in a ceasefire deal. So give Orban the benefit of a doubt and do not label him as the Putin agent he may in fact be.

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
July 2, 2023 16:26

This article by Ilya Matveev appeared in Riddle a Russian opposition journal operating in the West https://ridl.io/the-split-of-the-elites-and-the-question-of-expectations/ . It is pretty interesting, because it clearly does not claim the most very wealthy Russians are nearing abandoning Putin. But the specter remains it could happen.

I personally think that Russia is a mafia state like Hungary is today. I use Bálint Magyar‘s definition of a Mafia state because it seems to explain a lot. The most wealthy are dependent on various deals granted to them by Putin in Russia or Orban in Hungary. There can be no easy break from that reality.

That is not to say there are not competitive capitalists operating in the freer parts of the economies of both countries. But they are not the economic elite. Breaking from Putin will not be easy because it could create a more competitive economy in which their own hoards of wealth could be destroyed. So possibly the best choice would be for Putin to be replaced by a new dictator who will respect the existing Mafia state system. But Putin being a KGB guy will try to kill off those potential replacements if he needs to, obviously Putin wants to die in power.

I do think that Matveev accepts too much of the narrative that Wagner carried out an armed revolt against Putin and then suddenly backed off. It seems very possible that some of this drama was staged and Prigozhin had the basic elements of a prearranged deal to retreat already made with Putin. But there is no way I can prove that to be honest.

Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
July 3, 2023 02:44

Guys – Twitter (and other so-me) is driven by categorized gossip, manipulative utterings and commercials in pefect symmetry – please don’t bring that (and other digital pollution) to the town market. It’s simply not real.
Forget the figures and statistics, they aren’t real either.
In the IE world, nothing is actually “real”, as in true to physical appearance.
The horse still has a mouth, only it’s not digitalized (yet).

Last edited 10 months ago by Michael Detreköy
wolf
wolf
July 3, 2023 09:01

I don’t follow anyone and react only to people I know, most accounts are just silly screams by silly people and/or attempts at manipulation with non-facts – whether it’s twit or fb or tickytocky or …
And it will get worse!

wolf
wolf
July 3, 2023 11:04

A “nice” example of this:
https://hungarytoday.hu/left-wing-authors-in-anti-government-meltdown-over-sale-of-publishing-company/
These Hun government sites are so manipulative and stupid – my wife says:
don’t even tnink about watching them!

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
July 3, 2023 16:00

Twitter issues over here in the USA are basically now being seen as solvable by the market. This Washington Post article
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/07/01/elon-musk-new-twitter-user-limits/ includes this:

“ Advertisers have fled in droves, raising questions about how the company will make money. Amid what observers have characterized as a chaotic tenure, Musk in May appointed Linda Yaccarino, formerly NBCUniversal’s chairman of global advertising and partnerships, as Twitter’s CEO.
Twitter’s changing user experience and frequent glitches have led to some users jumping to similar social media sites such as Mastodon and Bluesky. Meta has also reportedly proposed introducing its own Twitter clone.
 Bluesky, a platform backed by former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, bears a resemblance to Twitter. Bluesky said in a post on the platform Saturday afternoon that it was experiencing record high traffic after Musk’s announcement. The app, described as a decentralized social network, is currently invite-only and paused its sign-ups to respond to the spike in activity Saturday.”

There are similar comments about twitter in the Wall Street Journal (behind a serious fire wall by the way) basically looking forward to it’s destruction.

The major concerns over here relating to Musk are his Space X operations and Starlink internet services which have some implications for our national security. One concern among many in the business community here is Musk’s likely heavy use of legalized cannabis and cannabis oil.

There are studies indicating heavy use of cannabis can contribute to psychological problems for example this study https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3106308/

There is also known to be a link between powerful cannabis and paranoid thoughts, particularly relating to very high THC levels of cannabis. There is no limit on the level of THC where legally sold in US states that have legalized it.

I can go to a corporate owned cannabis dispensary three blocks from my home and buy an indigo strain of cannabis that is very expensive but at 38% THC. It is really so powerful that one puff on a pipe put as they can put a smoker “in the couch.” I personally experienced that with a friend smoking a very small amount of high potency cannabis, I was for about two hours what is called Couch locked. I felt literally locked to the couch and unable to move.

Given Musk’s access to the most high potency cannabis and by his own admission he has Asperger’s syndrome which is also now considered to be a diagnosed form of autistic spectrum disorder. He makes many business decisions in ways that have to be considered strange, but that have overall been profitable.

Really Musk’s downfall is assumed by many and even
Tesla is seen as vulnerable.

Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
July 3, 2023 19:27

Musk is a regular user of other drugs than cannabis as well.

Elon Musk Touts Ketamine For Depression Following Report On His Use Of Drug (forbes.com)

Phil S. Stine
Phil S. Stine
July 4, 2023 05:45

“There are studies indicating heavy use of cannabis can contribute to psychological problems”

When I read the above, I was minded of the sort of nebulous scaremongering typical of articles that have been appearing in tabloid media for decades; but then I see you linked to PubMed, a trusted source I used extensively while studying for my BSc. (as a mature age student). So I thought maybe there’s been something new on the alleged link between cannabis and schizophrenia, but no, it’s not that either.

Have you read the paper you cited Istvan? It’s 12 years old, but more importantly it is a case study of ONE single individual, so even if the results and conclusions are accurate for the test subject it is completely inappropriate to extrapolate them onto the broader community as the authors (and you) have done.

I think Musk was a rich kid who got lucky with one good idea, not the genie’s arse that some believe him to be.

tappanch
tappanch
July 4, 2023 10:03

Orban’s interview to “Libero Quotidiano” of Italy on June 16:

“Democratura is the stupidity of left-wing politicians and intellectuals. There are two political regimes in the world, freedom and dictatorship. Hungary is a free country; indeed, freer than many others, given that what the citizens want happens. On fundamental things, such as civil rights, the family, immigration, we have held a referendum. On the rest, the Parliament decides”

“The independence of our judiciary enjoys parameters above the average of European countries”

“Anyone who does not think like Biden on the war in Ukraine is accused of Putinism.”

https://www.liberoquotidiano.it/news/esteri/36112711/viktor-orban-intervista-perche-europa-tratta-pecora-nera.html

Don Kichote
Don Kichote
July 4, 2023 13:09

Orban’s arbitrary rule abuses prosecutors who pursue opposition politicians without evidence.

“Anyone who opposes Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s government must expect to be prosecuted by the public prosecutor’s office – even for alleged offenses for which there is no evidence. Proceedings are now part of everyday life for Dobrev. “I and other opposition members have to go to court almost every other week,” she says in an interview with ntv.de. At the same time, she laughs bitterly.”

Jan
Jan
July 4, 2023 14:41

Today the parliament passed the revenge law. The brave majority voted against education and for the destruction of the future of the Hungarian people.
I was at the demonstration on the Kossuth Lajos Tér. and saw how resistance was killed by the regime. Almost no participants. Today I think this comment of the 444 describes reality well.
Az ország, ami törvényt hozott a saját jövője ellen (444.hu)
The Hungarian people were not able to organize protests that would defend the future of their children. It is amazing.
Also worth reading is the reaction of Hadházy on Facebook today.
(20+) Hadházy Ákos – MIÉRT VESZTETTEK A TANÁROK ÉS A DIÁKOK? Még nem… | Facebook
Google Translate works fine on both links.
It is a sad day for Hungary.

Don Kichote
Don Kichote
July 4, 2023 16:49
Reply to  Jan

To 444.hu “Önmagában ez szinte bármilyen csoport története lehetne, akik megpróbálják érvényesíteni az érdekeiket egy autokratikus rendszerrel szemben, és nem sikerül kellően szervezetten fellépniük.”

To prevail against an autocratic regime … only Ceaușescu comes to mind. 2014 was the last chance to vote out this regime in my opinion. But I would like to be wrong.

Jan
Jan
July 4, 2023 17:11
Reply to  Don Kichote

You are right, voting has no value here anymore.
The Hungarian people are apathetic. There is nothing that can wake them up it seems. Can you imagine, only a few people there to protest a law that destroys the future of the nation?

Don Kichote
Don Kichote
July 4, 2023 18:22
Reply to  Jan

A meadow of flowers has become a stubble field, but there is still the desert.

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
July 5, 2023 17:59
Reply to  Jan

Thanks for the links Jan. Here in the USA we have seen attempts to make in particular secondary school teachers drones of prescribed curriculum with very little ability to vary from it. The State of Florida (via Florida Department of Education) has been leading the way in doing that.

Don Kichote
Don Kichote
July 5, 2023 22:37

Is De Santis now a fig leaf for Orban …

wolf
wolf
July 5, 2023 11:36

Szijjarto at his best again:
https://dailynewshungary.com/szijjarto-integration-in-western-europe-a-failure/
He’s whining like a crybaby with bad, bad parents who don’t let him play like he wants but have rules to protect others …
Why hasn’t Fidesz started the Hunxit procedure yet if the EU is so horrible?
It would be easy with Fidesz having a two thirds majority in the Hun parliament – even though they got less than 50% of the votes. Now that’s democracy for you.
But wait I forgot, Fidesz position re the EU is really very simple:
We’re only in it for the money!
And don’t even mention their new laws re teachers etc …
Slaves don’t need education and the Fidesznik children are sent to schools in Austria, Switzerland etc.

Don Kichote
Don Kichote
July 5, 2023 16:37
Reply to  wolf

The social integration of Hungarians in Hungary e.g. Roma is a failure a long time failure. The Hungarian economic policy is not sustainable without EU subsidies that is a failure. The referendums that were invalid because of the participation were a failure. To take them as a justification for the will of the Hungarian people is pure failure. The failure of this Machiavellian politics from the 16th century. 😀 Some develop the others do not. Szijjártó is envious?

wolf
wolf
July 5, 2023 19:52

The EU tells Hungary that the abominable corruption has to stop!
We all know the adventures of Rahel Orban and her husband, Eva often wrote on HS about it.
Now they’re moving into wine production in Tokaj, bought a lot of ground – now where does the money come from?
And my wife just told me that the big “castle” with dozens of rooms, two swimming pools and a helicopter site is being built by Orban’s father.
And don’t even think about Mészaros, the privatisation of the motorways and …
There also are big problems with Hungarian railway cars – several cases where A/C wasn’t working in an intercity and windows couldn’t be opened …
I remember that we rode the Intercity once from the Balaton to Budapest, paid extra for reserved seats and got A/C.
And then a lot of people came into that car because in their rotten cars there was no A/C and there was a lot of stress.
But of course it’s all the EU’s fault – where is our money???

wolf
wolf
July 6, 2023 10:10

A report on the way the rule of law is followed in the EU countries was just published by the European Commission – doesn’t look good for Hungary and Poland. While Hungary got a little bit better Poland’s “democracy” took a long leap down. So if nothing changes for both countries there is no chance to get those billions of Euros from the EU that they want to enjoy.
https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/eu-rechtsstaatsbericht-schlechtes-zeugnis-fuer-polen-19012416.html?
Maybe someone can find an English – or even Hungarian? – version of this scathing report?
in case the PISsers and Fidniks start whining again – other countries like Germany were also critised …

Last edited 10 months ago by wolf
Jan
Jan
July 6, 2023 11:11
Reply to  wolf

I think you can find everything in this link.

Rule of Law Report 2023 (europa.eu)

Don Kichote
Don Kichote
July 6, 2023 16:04
Reply to  Jan

I don’t know if you know the sources. Stephan Ozsvath knows the situation in Hungary very well, but writes very rarely in clear words (unfortunately) as here. So – that at Hungarianvoice immediately triggered the bite reflex – today I hope HV would see it differently. Ozsvath was right Hungarianvoice has supported Orban at that time 😀 . Today HV writes for Magyar Hang allegedly he is even the editor who has to print abroad because Hungarian printers are afraid of Orban I read.

Daniel Hegedüs belongs to a rather right-wing think tank. His contributions illuminate only partial issues – everything else falls by the wayside. He writes mainly for himself, I have the feeling, for his own benefit. Nothing by Hegedüs has ever enlightened me. I have never read any criticism of the regime by Ellen Bos, at least I can’t remember the name. Obviously she participates from the regime.

wolf
wolf
July 6, 2023 17:40
Reply to  Don Kichote

Memories are made of this …
Hungarian Voice hasn’t been active since 10 years, or am I wrong?
I just reread a few of HV’s articles, almost funny now.

Don Kichote
Don Kichote
July 6, 2023 18:24
Reply to  wolf

His blog at the time has remained standing and I think it’s good that you can read it today – after all, there are costs every year. He was fully convinced that the radical eviction of the left was an opportunity for a different policy. He thought he was immune and one day found himself in the left-wing drawer and that as a right-wing conservative. Because at some point he criticized “Orban.”

But he continues to be committed to his cause. Eva has also written about him an interesting post also in the comments section. Finally, she was often enough in HV blog under criticism. Among the posts I have read Eva was right.

I think any fighter against oppression is good.

Jan
Jan
July 6, 2023 18:41
Reply to  Don Kichote

Ellen Bos is a professor at the Andrássy University Budapest. A completely German language university founded in 2001 in Bp.
Andrássy University Budapest / AUB (andrassyuni.eu)
She is co-editor of the book: “Politics and Society in Hungary
(De-)Democratization, Orbán and the EU”
Politics and Society in Hungary: (De-)Democratization, Orbán and the EU | SpringerLink
Hegedüs is well known, and the author of a chapter in the book of Bos.
Stephan Ozsvath is a regular contributor to the Őffentlich Rechtlichen in Germany.
Maybe, the reasons to make these three the “experts” in the podcast were that two of them are well-known in Germany. And a professor is always good to have in the program (:
I didn’t have many problems with the content, although the critique of the regime cannot be harsh enough for me.

Last edited 10 months ago by Jan
Don Kichote
Don Kichote
July 6, 2023 19:43
Reply to  Jan

Good that we talked about it. 🙂

jan
jan
July 6, 2023 20:47
Reply to  Don Kichote

Yes, I guess you didn’t listen to the podcast(:

Don Kichote
Don Kichote
July 6, 2023 21:35
Reply to  jan

I leave it at that.

wolf
wolf
July 6, 2023 21:04

What is going on?
Yesterday morning the HUF was at 375 to the € – now it is at 385!
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=HUF&view=1W

wolf
wolf
July 7, 2023 10:31
Reply to  wolf

Now 388 HUF/€

wolf
wolf
July 7, 2023 11:21

A really interesting article on why some liberal thinkers in the West accept Orbán’s policy – also a lot of background info on the development of o1G:
https://www.ips-journal.eu/topics/democracy-and-society/orbans-anti-woke-pretence-6823/

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
July 7, 2023 16:18
Reply to  wolf

Of course there is no operational definition of “Woke” it actually comes from African-American Vernacular English ( AAVE ) the Oxford Dictionary of African American English (ODAAE) has yet to be published and there is no clear understanding of the meaning.

The phrase “stay woke” has history in AAVE as far back as the 1930s. In some contexts, it referred to an awareness of social and political issues affecting African Americans.

But now it is encompassing a broader awareness of social inequalities such as sexism and homophobia, or anti transgender attitudes. Woke has also been used as shorthand for some ideas of the American Left involving identity politics and social justice, such as white privilege and slavery reparations for African Americans.

I have no clear idea what the hell Orban means when he rants about Woke. It is used as an epithet basically for any liberal idea.

wolf
wolf
July 7, 2023 21:29

Istvan, thanks!
So I will continue to honoured when someone calls me woke.

Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
July 8, 2023 04:23

Let’s not forget that a war is going on – A real war in europe.
EU-oriented Europeans (and their American and British allies) want an end to that war and a return to pre 2014 Russian aggression.
Only, and only, Erdogan and Orbán are against.
Because they are both profoundly corrupt individuals in relation to Russia (for different reasons), they both share a responsibility for the continuation of the conflict.

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
July 8, 2023 16:31

Basically today in the USA there is a liberal crisis going on over the Biden administration providing 155 mm artillery shells tipped with cluster bomb warheads to Ukraine.

When I was at the battle of An Loc in Vietnam in 1972 our artillery shells provided to the South Vietnamese Army were not cluster explosive.

But the US Air Force bombing outside of our defensive lines used them extensively. Since I did ground spotting for the drops I saw what damage they did to the advancing communist forces.

One of the most incredible of these bombs was the the 750-pound (340 kg) CBU-55. This bomb was a cluster bomb fuel–air explosive that was developed during the Vietnam War by the United States Air Force.

I would go out beyond the wire with a team of South Vietnamese Marines guarding me while I was in direct ground to air radio communications with the US pilots doing the drops. At one point we must have been too close because a number of my South Vietnamese Marines posted maybe 50 yards from me suffered facial burns.

As I have written before the communists lost incredible numbers of troops attacking our lines, at least 10,000 infantry and battle tank crews. The true count will remain unknown because effectively the dead were in many cases vaporized.

I do not believe the USA will be providing any cluster bomb fuel–air explosives to Ukraine, but just the cluster bombs are pretty deadly. The Russians have apparently been using at least 6 types of cluster munitions: missiles for multiple rocket launchers “Hurricane”, “Smerch”, “Tornado-S”, missile systems “Tochka” and “Iskander-M”, as well as RBC bombs -500 with PTAB-1M submunitions.

This war is entering into a deadly new phase with the U.S. command realizing that in order for this counter offensive to gain territory entrenched Russians have to destroyed in mass. I pray for them all, they are fighting in hell now.

Below is a photo on a U.S. Air Force cluster missile from the Vietnam era. It was called Honest John.

IMG_0251.jpeg
Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
July 8, 2023 16:39

This opinion article in the Washington Post was written by two leading Democrats opposing President Biden providing cluster bombs to the Ukrainians.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/07/07/leahy-merkley-ukraine-cluster-munitions/

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
July 8, 2023 17:03

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova in the Russian media today is quoted stating:
“…yet another ‘Wunderwaffe’ [wonder weapon] Washington and Kiev are betting on, without thinking about the harsh consequences,” “Through the cluster munition deliveries, Washington de-facto becomes an accomplice in mining [Ukraine’s] territory and will share full responsibility for the deaths… of both Russian and Ukrainian children,” and “ (the USA is) raising the stakes in this conflict to the maximum.”
But of course Zakharova does not admit the Russian military has been using cluster munitions in Ukraine since the invasion started, but the Russians deny that.
The fact that team Putin are lying dogs also does not make Biden’s decision correct either.

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
July 8, 2023 17:18

Not to be left behind in the cluster bomb debate Magyar Nemzet joins in https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2023/07/washington-azert-kuldene-kazettas-bombakat-kijevnek-mert-mast-mar-nem-tud-video

This article takes more or less the position that really only Orban’s great peace plan can prevent more deaths, that there is a logic of escalation in this war. On the escalation analysis team Orban is not wrong.

But of course the famous Orban immediate ceasefire in place plan if implemented right now does effectively concede about 20% of the pre-2014 territory of Ukraine to Russia, which of course is pretty unacceptable to most Ukrainians.

tappanch
tappanch
July 8, 2023 19:15

Hi Istvan,

Do I think correctly that the US & Europe have run out of regular ammo and that is why the cluster ammunition has come into the play?

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
July 8, 2023 22:19
Reply to  tappanch

I am a little stunned that our arsenals might have exhausted their 105 mm and 155mm conventionally armed shells. When I was assigned to an arsenal in the Army Reserves prior to my retirement those shells were stored by thousands and thousands.

I guess this war combined with our middle eastern wars could have reduced our artillery munitions to being just more than what is needed for the US Army. Obviously a problem related to both planning and munitions production given the high rate of fire the Ukrainians have been using for over a year now.

tappanch
tappanch
July 8, 2023 22:55

so Putin’s strategy seems to be working.

#1 Destroy the Ukrainian industry

#2 put the Russian industry on a war footing

#3 the Americans and the Europeans maintain peace production

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
July 8, 2023 23:44
Reply to  tappanch

This article discusses the planned increase in U.S. production of 155mm artillery shells. See https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-
dailies/2023/03/28/us-army-eyes-six-fold-production-boost-of-155mm-shells-used-in-ukraine/.

It seems we let the production back log build up and we are now playing catch up.

tappanch
tappanch
July 9, 2023 12:14

Thank you for the links !

So Ukrainians need 210,000 to 270,000 rounds for a month of counteroffensive.

March 2023 US production: 14,000/month

By the end of the year: 24,000/month

This means that successful counteroffensive is possible only next year with the classical shells.

But:
“The cluster bomb is an attractive option because it would help Ukraine destroy more targets with fewer rounds, and since the U.S. hasn’t used them in conflict since Iraq, it has large amounts of them in storage it can access quickly,”

“the U.S. may have as many as 3 million cluster munitions available for use”

https://www.defensenews.com/flashpoints/ukraine/2023/07/07/why-the-us-is-willing-to-send-ukraine-cluster-munitions-now/

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
July 10, 2023 01:13
Reply to  tappanch

Well the level of heavy artillery suppression fire needed depends on the size of the point of attack. Supposedly this offensive could go on a long time and advances could be incremental.

You will also have to have munitions sufficient to hold back counter attacks.

The potential length of this offensive is unnerving some of Ukraine’s allies given the ability of Russian to keep sending troops to the front.

But a big armored breakthrough by the Ukrainians might change all of that.

But the Russians could use low yield tactical nuclear strikes to halt a breakthrough. When I was in NATO forces in West Germany in late 1972-1973 to be honest there were NATO plans to use tactical nukes on the Russian armored spearhead. I was assigned to the 144th Ordnance Company that would bring forward nuclear weapons rapidly to slated for 8th US Infantry Division’s artillery units and 3rd Armor Division. Both tanks and at were nuclear ready.

We practiced this constantly of course not using the real munitions.

I am sure the Russians have similar plans.

Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
July 10, 2023 02:46

There’s a lot of secrecy going on about the production of various ammunition within the Nato countries.
Several countries have a much larger capacity (and the natural resources) than officially indicated.
How that is coordinated remains secret.
One thing is certain,
Russia can’t out-produce Nato.
The central ingredients of Russian self assurance are steady – geographic scope/ size and population – not available capacity and potential for accelleration.

Last edited 9 months ago by Michael Detreköy
wolf
wolf
July 8, 2023 21:26

On the US far right’s connections to Hungary:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/08/counter-currents-data-leak-amazon-cloud-greg-johnson
A well known fascist has been residing for several years in Budapest and organised meetings
American journalist and Counter-Currents co-founder, Michael Polignano, who was billed in the site’s early days as “managing editor and webmaster” of Counter-Currents, and who has lived in the Hungarian capital of Budapest since 2014.
Anyone knows more about this crazy guy?

Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
July 8, 2023 22:45
Reply to  wolf

They sound like just the type of people most would like to have hanging around in Hungary.

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
July 9, 2023 16:16

This article in Magyar Nemzet actually impressed me because it picked up on an English language commentary on a U.S. news show watched by the police elites here https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2023/07/az-amerikai-elnok-dontese-egy-beismeres-is-egyben-video its a about a high profile New York Times commentator who also makes a weekly appearance on the US national public television show the News Hour.

I watched the show and I too was impressed by the anti-Trump conservative Brooks commentary about the US sending cluster bombs to Ukraine. The article states in Hungarian: “A Biden-adminisztráció azon döntése, hogy kazettás lőszert küld Ukrajnába, azt jelzi, hogy nincs más lőszer, amit adhatnának, és hogy a katonai ellátási láncok rossz állapotban vannak – jelentette ki David Brooks, a New York Times rovatvezetője a PBS NewsHour című műsorban. A neves újságíró úgy véli, hogy a kazettás lőszerek küldéséről szóló döntés annak is a jele, hogy az ukrajnai ellentámadás nagyon rosszul halad. Magyarázata közben azért óvatosan ügyelt arra, hogy megvédje Joe Bident.”

Magyar Nemzet is actually very wrong when it claimed Brooks who has been a Republican commentator for years framed his observations that Ukraine was struggling in its offensive in a way “protect Joe Biden.” That is a very Fidesz driven interpretation, I saw Brook’s framing of his comments as supporting the right of Ukraine to fight to expel its occupiers, but just because its their right does not mean its going to happen.

Brooks is often very pragmatic and he has before expressed it’s completely possible the war in Ukraine could end in a stalemate with a cease fire agreement. In fact the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Milley said much the same thing indicating most wars end is some type of peace agreement. But I always find it fascinating how Fidesz journalists make little insertions to reflect the line of their great leader Orban.

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
July 10, 2023 00:22

Should be “political elites” auto correct strikes frequently.

Pantanifan
Pantanifan
July 10, 2023 11:11

https://atlatszo.hu/orszagszerte/2023/07/07/illegalis-akku-hulladek-raktarra-bukkantak-ikladon-a-rendorseg-es-a-katasztrofavedelem-is-kivonult/
atlatszo.hu discovered an illegal waste site in Pest county and notified the authorities, who found a huge amount of lithium-ion batteries stored illegally, the site also smells of (unauthorized) chemicals.
Even if you don’t read the Hungarian link above it’s worth looking at the photos to see what’s happening 40 km from Budapest

wolf
wolf
July 11, 2023 09:42

Turkey’s Erdogan has agreed to let Sweden join NATO, good news!
But wait – there still remains one EU and NATO member where parliament has not yet agreed to the NATO expansion …
You have three guesses …

Pantanifan
Pantanifan
July 11, 2023 13:41
Don Kichote
Don Kichote
July 11, 2023 14:58
Reply to  Pantanifan

19 percent of Hungarian respondents believe that Putin is doing the right thing in terms of world politics, but 50 percent of them do not trust the Russian president. That means 9.5% do not trusting Putin, or. It is also a strange question whether Putin is doing the right thing in terms of world politics.

Some articles are not allowed to be read carefully and in any case not to be questioned, so let’s leave the nebulous idea of what is supposed to be the right term of world politics. I gave it up 🙂 .

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
July 11, 2023 17:21
Reply to  Don Kichote

Thanks for the discussion of the  Pew Research Center polling data. I have some real problems with President Zelensky and his background as a comedian and actor. In particular with him constantly dressing in military attire even on formal occasions with other international leaders.

To be honest having now looked at several biographical background pieces on Zelensky I can find no clear evidence that he ever went though even the basic military training that lets say Orban did in Hungary.

Volodymyr Yermolenko who is a Ukrainian philosopher and journalist who runs the website Ukraine World. Correctly observed about Zelensky after the invasion Zelensky began weight lifting and he tried to look like a warrior, including constantly being in combat type dress. In the US Army this was called pimping your build, in fact because I went directly from being a college wrestler to the Army via the ROTC and a special school in Texas where I studied Vietnamese intensely I faced that too.

I wonder what the real Ukrainian combat veterans think of him. Honestly the more veteran soldiers in Vietnam thought I was a full of shit college boy who had good Vietnamese language skills. Really it was only after I came under fire and appeared to keep my head that I gained any respect from either the US Army advisors or the South Vietnamese soldiers. Some of the older noncoms still thought I was pretty pathetic I suspect while showing required military respect for my commission.

Sometimes I wonder if Zelensky is leading his country or acting a role as a leader. I admit I am pretty cynical about him. I was even upset by US President Bush flying on to an aircraft carrier wearing a combat flight suit during the gulf war, as were some other retired military officers I know. We are a strange bunch to be honest.

Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
July 12, 2023 02:52
Reply to  Don Kichote

Considering the available sources of information for the average citizen in Hungary, It’s not surprising at all.
What could be interesting, would perhaps be how Hungarians relate to the idea of a Russia after Putin and Hungary after Orbán.

wolf
wolf
July 12, 2023 08:11

Re: Average citizens in Hungary
I’ce surely written about this before. My wife (ok, she’s above average and much so …) and our neighbours sometimes discuss Hungarian politics and they absolutely hate and detest Fidesz and its honchos or Mafia as onecalled it lately. And they know about all the corruption – just ask them about O1G’s family, Mészaros etc.
These neighbours are not academics, ok retirees who once were hardworking – in our around Esztergom which is a Fidesz bastion.
Btw you’ll also never see them attending church – is that the reason why?
So who are those people which regularly vote for Fidesz? Of course it’s not two thirds of Hungarians as some foreigners believe because of the undemocratic structure of parliament and some voters got their bags of krumpli but still ..

Don Kichote
Don Kichote
July 12, 2023 10:23

Mental derangement reads mental derangement to be informed? Well, maybe I shouldn’t be so critical after fourteen years of dumbing down the hungarian people. Telex is like the Bild tabloid press. Wolfi asks rightly how stupid one can be.

wolf
wolf
July 12, 2023 17:21

Now it’s getting all over the world:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/12/hungarian-bookstore-chain-wraps-books-lgbtq-characters-plastic
Wondering what people all over the world are thinking and whether we’ll see any reaction.
Does Ambassador Pressman now also have to deliver any statements wrapped in plastic foil?

Don Kichote
Don Kichote
July 12, 2023 18:31
Reply to  wolf

Laws that work with vague definitions and or formulations are a means of self-censorship and also a means for dictators to punish arbitrarily. Unfortunately, little attention is paid to such laws in Hungary. The resulting consequences of self-censorship in society are not perceived. The development of a “special” society is a total failure.

wolf
wolf
July 13, 2023 12:37

This article describes the latest activities of Fideszniks in Brussels – obviously preparing for the elections of the European Parliament.
https://dailynewshungary.com/fidesz-meps-slam-eu-institutions-for-balkans-policy-covid-journalists-rights/
Dpesn’t matter who talks about what – it’s always the “left majority” in the EP responsible for horrible things like accepting LGBQT, caring for refugees, asking for rule of law etc.
The funniest part of this nonsense is of course that the EPP which Fidesz belonged to and KDNP is still a part of (how s that possible?) is called leftist now – only a real hardcore fascist would believe this!
To the right of FIDESZ is only the wall!

Jan
Jan
July 14, 2023 11:32

Today an analytic article on the effectivity, influence, and effect of the regime propaganda on the people, diverse groups, and individuals was published in Szabad Európa
I think it is worth reading, the sources for the article are as far as I could find not affiliated with the regime and have a “clean” past.
This is how fear-mongering campaigns help keep Fidesz in power (szabadeuropa.hu)
Some links to connected information:
What do the election results prove? | Dimension Media Foundation (dimenziomedia.hu)
Telex: Addicted, mentally ill, and attacking us, but no matter how hard we try to get him into psychiatry, there’s no room

Last edited 9 months ago by Jan
Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
July 14, 2023 11:45
Reply to  Jan

Proves once again (again again) that Orwell had analyzed the situation correctly.

Last edited 9 months ago by Michael Detreköy
Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
July 15, 2023 02:36
Reply to  Jan

Jan the Ákos Keller-Alánt article was very interesting. Of course the level of mental health problems I see among my extended family in Esztergom is reflective of the data in the article.

To be honest I am amazed at how obvious maladaptive behaviors exhibit themselves at family events and dismissed with an acknowledgement like – ó, ő egy kicsit őrült, de nem olyan rossz.

The same thing exists here with mental health problems dismissed as just the way thing are and not much can be done.

Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
July 15, 2023 04:44

Many excuses for not taking responsibility/assuming responsibility by not doing anything to keep matters (directly) relevant can be conjured up.

wolf
wolf
July 14, 2023 14:49

Orbán as usual delivered his long winded Friday ranting today.
https://dailynewshungary.com/orban-the-usa-could-end-the-war-in-ukraine-immediately/
I’m too lazy to calculate how often he mentioned USA and the War, the EU etc.
But not one single time !!! did he use the words Russia or Putin!!!
Reading only his words you wouldn’t realise that Russia is the aggressor and invader here – no, it’s all the USA’s fault and the EU’s – but how many US or EU soldiers are involved?
I don’t know what to say …
PS:
OK, he said once:
If Ukraine was given NATO membership now, it would immediately mean a third world war “because it would mean that NATO is at war with Russia”.
But Ukraine’s membership in NATo is not being discussed by anyone …

Last edited 9 months ago by wolf
Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
July 14, 2023 16:18
Reply to  wolf

Let me expand on that post extensively. So PM Orban did his Kossuth radio Good morning, Hungary radio program from a studio in Sopron. I listened to a recording of it on line.
Overall Orban blamed all of Hungary’s economic problems on NATO’s promotion of war in Ukraine.

Repeatedly he stated the USA could end this war at anytime.
Here is an actual quote from Orban’s radio show today: “If the Americans wanted it, peace would come the next morning. Why Americans don’t want that is a question that puzzles the entire world. We didn’t get an answer at the NATO summit.”

Actually very few in NATO are puzzled because to right now to achieve an immediate ceasefire the USA would have to force territorial concessions on Ukraine that are overwhelmingly opposed by the vast majority of Ukrainians who were by the way invaded by Russia.

Of course by the time Orban was doing his radio show in Sopron he had no doubt been given a transcript of President Biden’s comments made in the Presidential Palace
Helsinki, Finland yesterday (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/07/13/remarks-by-president-biden-and-president-sauli-niinisto-of-the-republic-of-finland-in-joint-press-conference-helsinki-finland/).

President Biden in response to a question he took from the US newspaper the Wall Streets Journal took up what Orban thought was a puzzle. Here is the transcript of that:
Q    Thank you, Mr. President.  You’ve said that Ukraine shouldn’t enter NATO until after the war is over.  Are you concerned at all that those comments could motivate Putin to keep the war going or discourage him from entering peace negotiations? 

And is there a serious risk that this war could drag on for years?  And do you see any path toward the war ending with Putin still in power?
PRESIDENT BIDEN:  First of all, no one can join NATO while the war — a war is going on, where a NATO nation is being attacked, because that guarantees that we’re in a war and we’re in a third world war. 

So that is not about whether or not they should or shouldn’t join.  It’s about when they can join.  And they will join NATO.

The issue of whether or not this is going to keep Putin from continuing to fight, the answer is: Putin has already lost the war.  Putin has a real problem.  How does he move from here?  What does he do?  And so, the idea that there’s going to be — what vehicle is used, he could end the war tomorrow; he could just say, “I’m out.” 
But what agreement is ultimately reached depends upon Putin and what he decides to do.  But there — there is no possibility of him winning the war in Ukraine.  He’s already lost that war.  Imagine if — even if — anyway.  He’s already lost that war.
Q    And just on the question of — of a concern about it going on for years: Is there a possibility that there’s a stalemate and this becomes —

PRESIDENT BIDEN:  I’m sorry?

Q    The question of whether the war could go on for years.  Is there a possibility there’s a stalemate and it can continue for quite some time?
PRESIDENT BIDEN:  Well, I don’t think the war can go on for years for two reasons.  Number one, I don’t think that they — that Russia could — could maintain the war forever — number one — in terms of their resources and capacity. 

Number two, I think that there is going to be a circumstance where, eventually, President Putin is going to decide it’s not in the interest of Russia — economically, politically, or otherwise — to continue this war.  But I can’t predict exactly how that happens. 
My hope is and my expectation is you’ll see that Ukraine makes significant progress on their offensive and that it generates a negotiated settlement somewhere along the line.

So Orban knows the US perspective is not one of perpetual war in Ukraine and the complete destruction of the Russian Federation. It is a perspective that the Ukrainian offensive will result in some increased liberated Ukrainian territory and a peace deal.
Orban wants to force Ukraine to cede territory to Putin immediately to create a ceasefire agreement that the Ukrainians do not support. Orban wants Russia and Putin to come out of this fiasco with something tangible to shown for the horror this invasion has created.

By the way President Biden is correct that Putin has already lost the war because the night the invasion started Putin told the Russian people a Nazi government existed in Ukraine created by a Western coup (ie the Color revolutions) that he was going to remove. That plan blew up when Russian forces were defeated in their quick attempt to seize Kyiv and kill or imprison Zelensky. Since then Putin has modified his war aims and no denies he ever proposed a complete overthrow of the Ukrainian government. But his harder nationalist supporters continue to promote that line.

I also wonder if Orban has dreams of forcing Ukrainian concessions relating to the Ukrajnai magyarok. Possibly requiring some type of recognition of dual nationality rights of Hungarian speakers leading to a possible actual incorporation of land to Hungary. Orban has his dreams too!

wolf
wolf
July 14, 2023 17:03

Istvan, thanks for the background info on Biden’s position.
I also think that O1G is living in a kind of fairyland – is there nobody in Fidesz to get him back to reality?

Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
July 15, 2023 02:19

Orbán does an admirably loyal job of continuing his policy of accommodation with the Russians – But he fools nobody outside Hungary (fanatic White Nationalists excepted) – He is a con-artist-disguised-as-statesman and everybody (but the Fidesz-faithful) knows it well enough to not give him the benefit of doubt.
As delicate and bold as the balancing act might appear, his political neck is firmly braced in a guillotine of his own making.
It would take a massive effort by the Hungarian public to change that position – General strike, uprising, or mass emmigration and exiled State Council.

Last edited 9 months ago by Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
July 15, 2023 02:35

István, I just had a visit by a couple of old friends from the US.
In short, they tell me that they consider the federal union and society in general, damaged beyond repair under present circumstances. Not just politically, but also socially.
They call out corruption as the deeper cause.

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
July 15, 2023 13:57

The USA has been profoundly corrupt since before the revolutionary
army with the help of the French won the war.

The Army led by George Washington had crooks overcharging for clothing and provisions during the entire war.

George Washington himself became the largest land owner in the new nation by simply either being awarded the land or by the fact he expropriated it from native tribes that supported the British. I wrote my a paper about this while a cadet officer in College for a U.S. Army history course I took as an undergraduate. My commanding officer for our ROTC program was angry at me for writing it. He said while your paper is historically true, that is not the legacy of the US Army we should be thinking about. But the paper was still graded excellent, but not submitted to the national ROTC journal for cadet officers by my college.

Chicago where I live has always been corrupted even under French rule in the 1700s. The major product traded to the natives in early Chicago was whiskey. Many natives literally drank themselves to death suffocating in their own vomit.

wolf
wolf
July 14, 2023 17:40

This article on the Fidesz media monopoly reminded me of those crazy billboards you could watch (but w ejust laughed at them) besides the road. Of course before the next elections we’ll see milions of them again …
https://www.euractiv.com/section/media/opinion/the-value-of-social-media-for-hungary/