October 15, 2024

Exactly 80 years ago: The Nyilas deposed Horthy.

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Istvan Chicago
Istvan Chicago
October 15, 2024 14:39

The Russian news service RT ran this story as its lead today https://www.rt.com/news/605743-hungary-veto-russia-sanctions/. The article implied that Slovakia and the Czech Republic might join Hungary in a veto.

Istvan Chicago
Istvan Chicago
October 15, 2024 15:29

This Telex podcast https://telex.hu/podcast/2024/10/13/elektor-amerikai-gazdasag-inflacio-musor-elemzes-trump-harris is
unfortunately true, the inflation issue here is a real concern for more moderate income Americans.

Right now I am at our Northern Wisconsin home in Clark County which in the last two presidential elections voted 68% for Trump. I am somewhat optimistic that margin of victory for Trump will be less in this election.

The idea that based on economic indicators inflation has declined means little to workers and farmers up here because there have been no decline in prices for food or products. Rural Wisconsin workers are overwhelmingly not unionized and do not get cost of living salary increases.

Farmers up here are heavily involved in the dairy industry but are highly mechanized. The cost for finished products for milking and harvesting feed crops hasn’t declined at all. Nor has high bio-engineered seed for feed crops declined. Basic milk prices paid to these farmers did not keep pace with inflation.

Since my own economic interests up here are largely in the forestry industry those prices have stayed ahead of inflation largely because of the devastation of Canadian forests fires due to climate change. But overall in this part of Wisconsin the forestry industry is not significant.

Basically current Wisconsin polling show Harris leading by only 0.6% well below the standard error in polling data.

tappanch
tappanch
October 15, 2024 21:56
Reply to  Istvan Chicago

Harris > Trump (poll averages)

Michigan: 0.7%
Pennsylvania: 0.7%
Wisconsin: 0.6%
Nevada: 0.4%

Harris: 277 electors

Trump > Harris

Arizona: 1.5%
Georgia: 1.1%
North Carolina: 1.0%

Trump: 261 electors

tappanch
tappanch
October 15, 2024 21:58
Reply to  tappanch

If Nevada goes to Trump, then

Harris – Trump: 271-267

tappanch
tappanch
October 15, 2024 21:36

Hi Istvan of Chicago,

Thank you for your letter from rural Wisconsin !

Re: inflation (I know that you know this – info for non-Americans in this blog)

COLA := next year increase of social security
= (July + August + September y/y CPI-W inflation) /3

2025: 2.5%
2024: 3.2%
2023: 8.7%
2022: 5.9%
2021: 1.3%
2020: 1.6%
2019: 2.8%

Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today 6.51%, up 0.3% from its 2024 low 3 weeks ago.

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