Right now I am at our Northern Wisconsin home in Clark County which in the last two presidential elections voted 68% for Trump. I am somewhat optimistic that margin of victory for Trump will be less in this election.
The idea that based on economic indicators inflation has declined means little to workers and farmers up here because there have been no decline in prices for food or products. Rural Wisconsin workers are overwhelmingly not unionized and do not get cost of living salary increases.
Farmers up here are heavily involved in the dairy industry but are highly mechanized. The cost for finished products for milking and harvesting feed crops hasn’t declined at all. Nor has high bio-engineered seed for feed crops declined. Basic milk prices paid to these farmers did not keep pace with inflation.
Since my own economic interests up here are largely in the forestry industry those prices have stayed ahead of inflation largely because of the devastation of Canadian forests fires due to climate change. But overall in this part of Wisconsin the forestry industry is not significant.
Basically current Wisconsin polling show Harris leading by only 0.6% well below the standard error in polling data.
Hi Istvan of Chicago, Thank you for your letter from rural Wisconsin ! Re: inflation (I know that you know…
This Telex podcast https://telex.hu/podcast/2024/10/13/elektor-amerikai-gazdasag-inflacio-musor-elemzes-trump-harris is unfortunately true, the inflation issue here is a real concern for more moderate income Americans.…
The Russian news service RT ran this story as its lead today https://www.rt.com/news/605743-hungary-veto-russia-sanctions/. The article implied that Slovakia and the…
The map:
The Russian news service RT ran this story as its lead today https://www.rt.com/news/605743-hungary-veto-russia-sanctions/. The article implied that Slovakia and the Czech Republic might join Hungary in a veto.
This Telex podcast https://telex.hu/podcast/2024/10/13/elektor-amerikai-gazdasag-inflacio-musor-elemzes-trump-harris is
unfortunately true, the inflation issue here is a real concern for more moderate income Americans.
Right now I am at our Northern Wisconsin home in Clark County which in the last two presidential elections voted 68% for Trump. I am somewhat optimistic that margin of victory for Trump will be less in this election.
The idea that based on economic indicators inflation has declined means little to workers and farmers up here because there have been no decline in prices for food or products. Rural Wisconsin workers are overwhelmingly not unionized and do not get cost of living salary increases.
Farmers up here are heavily involved in the dairy industry but are highly mechanized. The cost for finished products for milking and harvesting feed crops hasn’t declined at all. Nor has high bio-engineered seed for feed crops declined. Basic milk prices paid to these farmers did not keep pace with inflation.
Since my own economic interests up here are largely in the forestry industry those prices have stayed ahead of inflation largely because of the devastation of Canadian forests fires due to climate change. But overall in this part of Wisconsin the forestry industry is not significant.
Basically current Wisconsin polling show Harris leading by only 0.6% well below the standard error in polling data.
Harris > Trump (poll averages)
Michigan: 0.7%
Pennsylvania: 0.7%
Wisconsin: 0.6%
Nevada: 0.4%
Harris: 277 electors
Trump > Harris
Arizona: 1.5%
Georgia: 1.1%
North Carolina: 1.0%
Trump: 261 electors
If Nevada goes to Trump, then
Harris – Trump: 271-267
Hi Istvan of Chicago,
Thank you for your letter from rural Wisconsin !
Re: inflation (I know that you know this – info for non-Americans in this blog)
COLA := next year increase of social security
= (July + August + September y/y CPI-W inflation) /3
2025: 2.5%
2024: 3.2%
2023: 8.7%
2022: 5.9%
2021: 1.3%
2020: 1.6%
2019: 2.8%
Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today 6.51%, up 0.3% from its 2024 low 3 weeks ago.