The toll road "deal" between the Hungarian state and Orban's ex-plumber turned richest oligarch will cost an estimated $41 billion…
Allies Breaking Away
Let’s have a look onto Hungary’s position in the European Union today. Since Orbán has spoiled his relationship with the European Peoples Party (EPP) things are degrading rapidly. The times the entire EPP protected Orbán from the Tavares report ►EN are definitely gone. Even when he was accused for his deeds in the Sargentini report only a 3rd of the EPP was sustaining him in the European Parliament. Most of friends he had in the German delegation from the Christian Social Union CSU, sister party of the former chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU. While in 2017 hardly any CDU member voted in favour of Orbán the CSU members did so ►EN. At this moment “the party of Helmut Kohl,” as Orbán regularly falsely refers to the EPP by mentioning the man who took Orbán into the conservative party family of Europe, abandoned Orbán and his regime.
A few years later, after the chair of CSU changed into the hands of Markus Söder, PM of the German state of Bavaria, even Orbán’s Franz-Josef-Strauß Preis, the highest award of the CSU party foundation, may be revoked ►DE. Orbán lost all of his former German friends. Only the AfD, the extremist “Alternative für Deutschland” (Alternative for Germany) is very keen on Orbán and his way of ruling, while Orbán doesn’t want any contact to them, at least today as he said in his press conference in December 2021. At least the 4th Merkel government did not push actions against Orbán. But the last general elections in September 2021 brought new majorities in Germany and none of the coalition parties in Germany are friends of Orbán. So Orbán already before the inauguration took place decided to attack the German government ►EN.
With German CDU and CSU the most important allies were gone. In the USA he had his great friend Trump, but the Americans have voted him out as we all know. While Trump is bitterly fighting against justice in his home state New York and seen his call for a coup a year ago in Washington, this sad figure endorsed Orbán for re-election a few days ago ►EN.
Orbán very much relied on the Visegrad 4 (V4), a loose co-operation between Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary within the EU. Slovakia has already distanced itself from Orbán after the last elections. From the V4 remained just a V3 following Orbán. Also in autumn 2021 there were general elections in the Czech Republic that led to a change in government there.
Euractiv reported ►EN that Orbán mustn’t expect help from Prague in his fight against the rule of law any more. The new minister for European affairs, Mikuláš Bek, talked about the different views within the coalition he is part of and said about Poland and Hungary: “What is important is the intersection and, in my view, it cannot be anywhere else than in the defence of the rule of law, which is being violated in both countries.” According to Bek there is a deep conflict between these 2 countries and the EU and neither his government, nor that of Slovakia, would be on the side of Hungary or Poland. He even talked about a weakening of the V4, at least until governments in Poland and Hungary change!
Remains Orbán’s little ally in out South: Slovenia. A completely unpredictable country that will have also elections this spring. In 2013 Orbán’s ally Janša lost the power after his coalition broke because of a corruption affair (sic!), and in 2018 he didn’t return to power because he didn’t find coalition partners for forming a majority in parliament. Although representing the largest party he is, let’s say it friendly, not really the PM other parties are very keen on. Until March 2020 he spent in opposition, when the coalition broke. He formed a 4-party-coalition with a tiny majority and that didn’t last long either. His next attempt with another combination is the incumbent government. More coalitions to prevent having elections during the 1st and 3rd corona wave than a political love affair. Slovenia has proportional representation and a lot of small parties, that split, merged, were newly founded, and so on. Way worse than the Hungarian opposition was during their darkest days. Janša’s coalition of today can’t govern any longer, since 2 of his 3 coalition partners won’t get over the threshold according to the latest polls and the remaining 2 parties are far away from a majority ►EN. Who will be the next PM is completely impossible to tell, but that 2018 could repeat, when the largest party and with it Janša was sent into the opposition, would not be such a surprise.
So Orbán only can rely on Kaczyński. If he can, since not only the total different relationship to Russia remains a serious problem between them. But right now there are no visible cracks in their common attack against the EU.
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Hi Istvan, thanks for writing the blog. Must be a tremendous task. you are doing a good job in my opinion. I hope I will be able to contribute, but there are major holes in my knowledge of Hungarian persons, and politics. The coming 2 months I am busy writing a curriculum.
Now to today´s topic, as you wrote it is clear the Viktor is more and more left alone in the EU, that is why the regime is trying to get new members like Serbia included in the EU. The nice thing is, that Hungary has the commissioner for this task, but no one listens to him.
Orban does have an ally, Mother Russia. Today in Putin’s controlled RT news this opinion statement appeared https://www.rt.com/russia/545298-kazakhstan-protests-international-crisis/ the author is Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs, chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, and research director of the Valdai International Discussion Club. This guy is a total supporter of Putin, and in this article https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/a-fuse-for-the-future/ endorses Putin’s essay titled“On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians” where he clearly sakes claim to Ukraine as a historic part of Russia. Which of course borders Hungary.
The RT article is really written so as to question if Putin should have authorized sending in Russian combat forces to put down the supposed 20,000 terrorists setting Kyrgyzstan on fire and chopping off police officers heads. Of course Lukyanov answers his own question writing “given justifications are about protection and preservation: a threat to the national security of the country in question and its neighbors justifies the intervention.” That is no surprise at all given that Lukyanov is a Putin operative and a journalist secondarily. Never once in this article is the internal fight in side of Kyrgyzstan between current President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and former President Nursultan Nazarbayev (a former Communist Party politburo member) who apparently has mobilized supporters on the streets discussed.
What are Orban’s operatives stating about the Russian intervention in Kyrgyzstan? In Magyar Nemzet today there is this article https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2022/01/moszkva-szerint-kivulrol-szitott-valsag-van-kazahsztanban which very clearly implies that the current uprising is based possibly on outside forces, possibly by the USA since the article includes reference to statement made by “White House spokesman Jen Psaki said Washington’s allegations that the United States would incite riots were completely false” but no similar statement from the Chinese whose own border is not far from that of Kyrgyzstan. Really Magyar Nemzet since the new year has run articles including in their titles statements like this the “CIA may intervene in the elections on the part of the opposition.” I think it is becoming ever clearer Fidesz is moving ever closer to being a Putin operation.
Of course, The Viktor is close to Putin. He is lending money from Putin for Paks 2, Russia will build Paks 2. The blue metro cars in Budapest are restored by Russian companies (a quality disaster). The Viktor will buy Sputnik vaccines, if we like it or not.
This are three examples that spontaneously pop up in my mind.
The Viktor nowadays has one problem as described by Istvan, the EU is less and less impressed by his destructive politics.
Our problem here, living in Hungary is, that Hungary will be bankrupt when the Viktor is done, and Hungary has to beg for help to get out of the immense depts to China and Russia. The EU may not want to do this, since the legal Hungarian government signed these contracts against advice from the EU, and ignoring better conditions from the EU.
These short-term solutions to fill a hole by digging another bigger hole seems to be popular here, and not only by the Viktor.
Thank you for the brief summary of Orban’s increasing isolation. This- in many ways- is an ironic development, especially as his primary allies are now Serbia and Russia. Ironic given Russian/USSR role in Hungarian history (1848, 1956), let alone Putin’s role in the KGB. It is also ironic in light of the historic anxiety of many Hungarians feeling alone and isolated in Europe, secondary to language and culture. Orban “the great strategist” has made possible these developments i.e. alliance with a long time enemy of a free and liberal Hungary and self fulfilling isolation from the rest of Europe!
Allies Breaking Away … 2022 – In Austria, the Federal President will be elected this year, hopefully it will not be Richard Lugner 😀 . In Portugal a new parliament is elected, the socialists are in front but the question of a coalition remains delicate. The Italian president will be elected hopefully not Silvio Berlusconi. In Germany, the coalition must prove itself also in relation to dictator Orban. In France, Marine Le Pen of the Rassemblement National party and the even more right-wing newcomer Eric Zemmour will fight Macron for the French presidency hopefully it will not be Eric Zemmour. In Hungary it will be all against Orban I hope it wins all. In Slovenia there are parliamentary elections the best chances has the head of the Social Democrats and MEP Tanja Fajon as Prime Minister. Orban’s friend Jansa should be out.
In exchange, Orban’s circle of friends in the east will be expanded to include Kazakhstan.