Well I don’t know if Kyiv is going to fall tomorrow, but it is obvious there is a lack of…
Hungary is NO Democracy
OSCE, the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, always employs observers to elections in its territory through its Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights ODIHR. OSCE was born during the cold war and is the 1st institution that connected all Europe and did not end at the iron curtain. In democratic countries the so-called limited mission is pretty superficial, on election day a few observers are deployed to the country, they write a report and that’s it. They might have some concerns about the legal environment or practice and these are regularly regarded as valuable advice and taken as chance to improve national legislation. In countries that have no functioning democratic structures the ODIHR decides to have a so-called full mission, where the situation already a month before the election day is observed regarding every aspect concerning the elections. The last weeks I already mentioned an open letter of 20 Hungarian NGOs asking for a full mission and a few days later that 62 members of the European Parliament (MEP) called for a full mission as well.
When the European Commission in the person of commissioner of justice Didier Reynders welcomed these calls for a full mission he drew the anger of the regime on himself. In Thursday’s “government info” press conference minister in the office of the prime minister Gergely Gulyás called this ► EN “unworthy of the members of the Commission.” Since the observers in a full mission will have a look onto the campaign the regime is frightened. The uphill battle of the opposition not only against another party, but also against the entire state would be included in the mission and this is not really what Orbán wants.
Orbán’s theory is that only he is representing the Hungarian nation, and the entire nation undivided follows him. This can be found in disgusting comments as “the nation can’t be in opposition” (2002) or “who is not with FIDESZ is no Hungarian” (2013.) So he is always declaring how democratic his regime is. He reduces democracy to elections and elections are only meant to confirm his majority in parliament regardless the means used. But both don’t fit into the definition of democracy of course.
Yesterday evening broke the news: ODIHR wants to employ a full mission ►HU. While the free press reported about the fact and the reasons given by the commission that took the decision, the regime’s media empire tried to distract again. Index reported quite clear, but ended with a confusing statement about Vera Jourová, European commissioner for values and transparency. Confusing since OSCE and EU have nothing in common but the continent they are in. Of course they interact, but there is no connection. Mandiner choose for reducing the mission to be a boring bureaucratic and completely useless thing. They did a quote that it would be likely to be reduced to a limited mission, because of the elections happening in France and Serbia in April as well, but neither the Népszava article ►HU they said to quote, nor the material whereon the article is based mention this. But who wonders about lies in regime propaganda. Magyar Nemzet in length described that all would be the fault of the leftist parties in the EP, including Hungarian MEPs, who told that the perfect Hungarian democracy would be endangered without any reason. They close that there is no reason to send such a full mission to an EU member state, that it just happens to countries like Armenia, Moldova and Kyrgyzstan. The propaganda paper missed the fact that Bulgaria also got this.
The reasons ODIHR gave in its assessment mission report list all the disadvantages the opposition parties have against the ruling party, from party financing, over 3rd party campaigning, media access, the latest legal reductions of possibilities to run a party list, and all the other things discussed on HS and now HN since Orbán decided to reduce the possibilities of the opposition to win not only the majority of votes, but more important the majority in parliament as well, which is definitely not the same in Hungary. Further that Orbán ignored the advises given by ODIHR for a fair counting of votes. In Hungary only may be counted by those persons delegated from parties, others mustn’t be present during the process is one of the ignored advises. The document is a long and sober description of Hungary today ►EN.
Bad enough the OSCE mission has no consequences. Whatever the observers will report the result of the election will remain the same. The only hope connected to the mission is that the already one-sided rules won’t be violated too much. And that the entire world might know how undemocratic a possible regime declared re-election has been, since this will get extensive media coverage. More than the fear of getting exposed can’t be reached with this mission.
And what can the EU do in case of fraud? Hardly anything. Of course this will add facts to how the EU regards the violations of the rule-of-law in Hungary, but there are no direct consequences. And here we have the right place where the interview of commissioner Jourová belongs. Not because of she hopes that the elections will be fair and free (her hope is definitely not the same as the warranty index reported,) but her assessment about the consequences the EU could take in case of the massive fraud we all are afraid of. Jourová said: ►EN “…. if you ask me whether there will be some action taken after the elections if they proved to be undemocratic or unfair, I don’t see any way of doing something concrete.” Another construction fault of the EU that never thought that such a case even could be discussed about before the elections in a member state. I completely agree with Macron that the treaty must be improved.
At the end of today’s post 2 short remarks about topics I covered in my earlier posts. I wrote that the ministry of human resources EMMI illegally forbade visits of the press in hospitals, because the Budapest High Court ruled so in highest possible instance. Since the regime doesn’t want the public to know how the reality in our hospitals is we have a new decree since today that the press mustn’t be admitted to hospitals. Whether the judges would see this new decree as legal or not doesn’t matter, it will take years again to take the juridical procedure through all possible courts.
And teachers having participated in the strike on Monday were threatened with consequences for their career by EMMI. The slogan of the teachers is “Who will teach tomorrow?” EMMI seems to have the answer: “Neither you nor, anybody else!”
Voila, the “Council of Judges” (OBT) has already submitted to Orban's "reorganization" by the afternoon. https://obt-jud.hu/sites/default/files/ulesek/Osszefoglalo_2024.11.20.pdf
Putin's spokesman, Peskov: "Freezing the conflict in Ukraine [along the existing frontlines] is UNACCEPTABLE for Russia, it is important for…
According to the 2015 contract, Russia would build the the Paks-2 atomic power plant for 12.5 billion euros, from start…
Current US situation: https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/commercial-backyard-flocks
Good news I think. As you say, there are no specific consequences that can be applied to Hungary, but it may deter the authorities from taking fraud too far. Also, just imagine if Fidesz wins in a clearly fraudulent election. Could the EU really just sit on its hands when everybody can see we have the equivalent of Belarus within the EU?
Of course the EU won’t do anything about a fraudulent election in HU except make some noise only to go back to its daily routine right after that. Sadly.
Do you have some proposals what the EU could do? Maybe it helps if you have some good constructive ideas that “the EU” can realise. You write like the Viktor, only he names it “Brussels” who is the enemy.
I am only saying what everybody has been watching for years. Sadly. There’s obviously a lack of legal tools to go after Orbán’s regime but when there is it always looks as if the EU (mainly the Council and the Commission – the Parliament usually has a much tougher approach) want to act as softly as possible if at all. For instance, when the European Commission says they will not implement the rule of law conditionality in HU before the April elections when they could, who does it favour? So no “Brussels” is not the enemy but when it fails to act it becomes an enabler.
No, you are not “only saying”, you are predicting, which is a difficult business especially when it concerns the future.
The teachers … weren’t they the ones who wanted to get to the top of the vaccination priority list and later sporadically demonstrated against compulsory vaccination. Weren’t they the professional group who have to undergo fideszschism indoctrination in order to get more salary through further training. I wonder, after the humorous last paragraph, who taught yesterday?
So much for a heterogeneous crowd this time not the EU – while doctors save life one time and the other they kill also represent a crowd. Thus, against all expectations, the doctor of the Hungarian Tennis Federation, according to “Népszava”, issued false negative PCR test certificates to facilitate the participation of tennis players in foreign tournaments. He is said to have produced these fakes in the name of Semmelweis University, where he works full-time. 🙂
I mean what do all these people do when they have to decide for themselves and not the state or the employer dictates something.
Péter Szijjártó gave an interview to a Russian news channel that was covered extensively both by Telex in this article https://telex.hu/kulfold/2022/02/05/szijjarto-peter-interju-oroszorszag-moszkva-ukran-orosz-valsag-diplomacia and by Magyar Nemzet in this article https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2022/02/szijjarto-peter-most-mindennel-nagyobb-szukseg-van-a-parbeszedre. Both articles are heavily based on reporting by MTI so they are consistent with each other.
Szijjártó again raised the issue of the rights of the Hungarian minority in Ukraine as a limiting factor in the support of the Hungarian government for Ukraine. Szijjártó said since 2016, the rights of the Hungarian community in Ukraine have been constantly violated, and the use of the mother tongue in education, public offices, the media and culture has been increasingly curtailed. From time to time, new initiatives will be put on the agenda of the Ukrainian parliament to further restrict rights. This is unacceptable for Hungary according to his comments.
I found it interesting that Szijjártó never discussed the dual nationality law that Ukraine passed restricting the rights of all dual nationals to hold government positions in Ukraine. Eva Balogh wrote numerous posts about the situation of Hungarian speakers in Ukraine this one https://hungarianspectrum.org/2021/01/27/a-new-era-in-hungarian-ukrainian-relations/ was most informative I thought. Unfortunately Eva speculated a lot and tried to read the tea leaves of the future and seemed to think Hungary was willing to concede some of its concerns over minority language issues for the greater good of security in relationship to Russia in this post https://hungarianspectrum.org/2019/11/13/as-the-public-trump-impeachment-hearings-get-underway-hungary-retreats-on-ukraine/ . Rubryka which has an internet edition in English last October had an extensive article on the dual citizenship issue in Ukraine https://rubryka.com/en/article/dual-citizenship/ and the complexities of it when Ukraine is effectively in something close to a state of war with the Russian Federation.
In Szijjártó interview with the Russian news channel he made an interesting comments relating to Hungary’s ability to defend itself against Russia presumably. He said: “There are NATO soldiers in Hungary, the Hungarian Armed Forces, which is a NATO unit. The Hungarian Armed Forces is in a good condition to defend the country, so there is no need for external troops.” The idea that Hungary could defend itself against a direct Russian attack is crazy based on any and all metrics of military power. Currently Hungary has only 14 fighter jets and Hungary has been attempting to build a more modern ground to air missile defense system https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2020/08/13/hungary-plunks-down-1-billion-for-new-air-defenses/. Hungary based on NATO data is capable with full mobilization of reserves units of putting around 57,000 boots on the ground of which as of November 2021 only 37,650 were active duty full time soldiers.
As I have stated before NATO has presumed for many years that tactical nuclear weapons would have to be used to stop any Russian invasion of the West. Russia based on US intelligence is capable of mobilizing a total 900,000 ground troops on top of its air based systems. If an attack were to be launched just at Poland it might look like this https://strategyandfuture.org/en/russian-mobilization-in-the-twenty-first-century/. It is highly unlikely that any conflict would be limited to conventional weapons. I have no idea what so ever where Szijjártó got his idea that Hungary could stand alone and defend itself without direct NATO assistance. If that were the case why even be in NATO at all?
This Telex interview https://telex.hu/interju/2022/02/05/ukrajna-interju-fedinec-csilla with Csilla Fedinec, a Transcarpathian-born historian, (originally from Bátyú, in the middle of the Uzhhorod-Munkács-Beregszász triangle), who now works as a senior researcher at the Minority Research Institute of the Eötvös Loránd Research Network. She is considered to be a leading expert on the Hungarian speaking minority in Ukraine. What I found most interesting in this interview is where she discussed the Ukrainian National Resistance Act and how she considered it to be can “as preparing a popular resistance in the event of a war,” arguing that a “new Afghanistan can await Russia” if they invade.
This analysis is consistent with what is being discussed here in the USA among many in the retired US Army officer community. One aspect of this Csilla Fedinec does not discuss is the need for a popular resistance strategy needing a safe haven in a NATO nation is the popular resistance strategy had to be implemented based on a full scale Russian occupation of Ukraine.
Her discussion of the current situation of Hungarians in Transcarpathia in this interview is well worth reading. I read it in the Hungarian original and in English via google translate and found that the google translation was pretty good assuming one knows the problems inherent with that translation program when translating Hungarian.
You are 100% correct in your assessment of actual Hungarian armed forces capabilities. There is one possible “fact” that might “save” Hungary if Russian troops ever invaded Hungary i.e. Russian troops might die laughing at the border at the pathetic state of Hungarian armed forces. Only that possibility might preclude the need for any “external” allied forces.
About one hour ago my electronic gadgets started shaking indicating I was getting numerous messages. I am getting messages from retired US Army officers once assigned to NATO who all read the same blogs, the messages were about a major Washington Post article titled “Russia could seize Kyiv in days and cause 50,000 civilian deaths in Ukraine, US Assessments find.” In many ways the entire article is based on information leaked to the post. The information came from military and intelligence assessments that were apparently orally briefed to members of the US Congress and NATO allies over the last several days.
Presumably this information was also provided to Hungary. One direct implication for Hungary is the estimate that there could be possibly as many as 5 million Ukrainian refugees going to various NATO countries including Hungary. I found this article strange in many ways, because it was a hodgepodge of information from prior Washington Post articles with the leaked information to create a very lengthy article and is currently the lead story on the Washington Post website.
I am in no situation to say if these assessments, being presented by the CIA and NSA apparently, are accurate. But I don’t know what purpose they serve even if the are correct because NATO has made it clear it will not participate in any actual military defense against a Russian invasion of any kind and the response would be limited to economic sanctions against Russia. The one purpose they could serve is to prepare the frontline NATO countries like Hungary to prepare for refugees and chaos. I am seeing no indication in the Hungarian media that there are preparations being made for hundreds of thousands of fleeing Ukrainians crossing the border and needing immediate shelter from winter conditions. I am also not seeing either Poland or Romania preparing for such a development. I am assuming that Volodymyr Zelensky is not accepting this assessment as accurate, but he is an actor after all and indeed he could be putting on a very brave face for the cameras.
So Magyar Nemzet read the same Washington Post story I discussed last night US time and used largely a Fox news report on it to produce this article https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2022/02/kijev-harom-napon-belul-elesne-egy-orosz-invazio-eseten . They of course used the quotes Dmitry Polyansky, Russia’s deputy UN ambassador who called it “Madness and scaremongering.”
I am very concerned about how this report came out last night and the fact that journalists who were leaked this information were told they could not attribute a direct source for the information. I mean if this is the CIA and NSA why not be honest about it, if it is coming from the DOD why not admit that? I personally hate cloak and dagger stuff relating to the spooks over here. In my opinion the intelligence people do this so as to protect their own asses if it is all wrong. When such assessments are given they normally include a probability statement and references to observations on the ground by operatives called which of course have to kept secret.
TRAVELING AT MACH 25, they pass over every spot on the face of the Earth twice a day, grabbing digital snapshots of places that the CIA — and the policymakers and military officers it serves — want to see. From missile fields in China or Russia to environmental disaster areas in the Sahel, the spy satellites provide a steady stream of black-and-white images. Their design, code names and capability are classified beyond top secret.
They are known in the spy trade as “Keyhole-class” satellites. And they have a resolution of 5 to 6 inches, meaning they can distinguish an object that small, but no smaller, on the ground. Two other satellites are radar-imaging, built by Lockheed Martin. Their resolution is about 3 feet. The US National Imagery and Mapping Agency, now uses advanced computer technology to create 3-D animations — called “envisions” — for policymakers so they can understand the images better. One retired officer I read on the internet says they are like cartoons. However, this officer very clearly states actual CIA operatives and agents are important because they covertly take photographs of a “denied areas” for inside actual Russia field positions when possible.
Clearly some stuff requires being not disclosed or your ground sources would be shot, others do not. This latest leaks take all of this too far in my opinion, my voice is clearly a minority among people who follow this stuff.
Magyar Nemzet is correct to state that US officials requested anonymity when providing their leaks, which were really more like confidential briefings to the media. But I would add that Magyar Nemzet in its article does not mention what should be most frightening aspect of this intelligence assessment, that possibly 100s of thousands of Ukrainian refugees would head for Hungary in the event of a full scale invasion by the Russians. The author of the the Magyar Nemzet article is its Deputy-head of foreign desk, editor László Dávid who would have clearly known that reporting that part of the story on potential refugees coming to Hungary would create a stir so it was best to leave that aspect out.
Also all communications coming out of the Russian bases are likely being picked up to one degree or another using all kinds of systems. Stephen Budiansky wrote the book on the USA trying constantly to break Russian coding it can be bought at https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B015VA8OBK/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_hsch_vapi_tkin_p1_i2.