Well I don’t know if Kyiv is going to fall tomorrow, but it is obvious there is a lack of…
Minister of Defence Szijjártó?
No, the minister has not spoken about the wish to change portfolio, but he extended his wisdom to answer military questions. Euronews interviewed him ►EN and Szijjártó stated concerning the deployment of additional NATO troops in several European countries along the Eastern borders of NATO: “No, we have not agreed to that and we will not agree because we have already NATO’s troops on the territory of the country, which is the Hungarian army and the Hungarian armed forces, [they] are in the proper shape to guarantee the security of the country. So we don’t need additional troops on the territory of Hungary.” Instead he advocated ending the sanctions against Russia that were introduced after Putin has occupied and annexed Crimea in 2014. The EU sanctions however have been extended for another year last month – and Hungary agreed.
Yes, Hungary is still member of NATO, despite the surrender of Szijjártó’s boss Orbán in Moscow earlier this month, who told the entire world that NATO must give in to Putin’s desire that NATO should return to its borders of 1997, to the status quo 2 years the first 3 former Warsaw Pact states joined, among them Hungary. Luckily the stupid statements made in a press conference have no impact of Hungary’s NATO membership, they “only” enlarge the distrust of our allies in the Hungarian government.
Hungary is generally no country where a lot of allies are deployed. Generally the airbases in Pápa and Kecskemét are used by the US airforce, as well as the combat training grounds in Várpalota. Central for NATO use and constantly manned by other NATO troops is the Pápa airbase only. Hungary itself tries having up to 24 000 active personal, latest numbers I found was 22 900. This is less than 1/5th of the troops Putin has deployed to the Eastern border of Ukraine and still 24 % less than Russia has right now for manoeuvre in Belarus. How could Hungary defend itself against a power with more than 40 times superiority in soldiers, I not even want to talk about conventional arming, let alone nuclear power. Hungary would be not endangered if Monaco or San Marino would invade, for the rest I won’t take a guaranty.
The regime constantly refuses to talk about a couple of facts that in case of a Russian invasion will occur. One is that this will cause another huge wave of refugees. Poland for example expects to care for up to a million refugees from Ukraine the deputy minister of the interior stated ►EN, but in fact the country is absolutely not prepared for so many refugees. Together with Poland, Slovakia, and Romania Hungary has as Western country a common border with Ukraine. In Belarus and most parts of Moldovian breakaway Transnistria along most of its border to Ukraine there are regimes with close ties to Russia are installed. So the refugee hating Orbán regime would see serious amount of refugees. And since the Hungarian minority in Ukraine are Ukrainian citizens they would have to fight against Russian troops in case of an invasion as well. How this fits into the patronage Orbán always wants to take over Hungarian minorities is another unanswered question.
May we conclude that Orbán has found another ally than NATO? Although I really hope that no Hitler-Stalin-Pact-like agreement has been closed during Orbán’s latest begging visit to Moscow concerning Ukraine, our friends and allies are getting scared. However, already since Putin attacked Ukraine 8 years ago, there are suspicions that Orbán would try to enlarge the Hungary into the formerly Hungarian area in today’s Ukraine. While it is true that there is living a Hungarian minority this doesn’t allow forcing Ukraine to cede these territories to Hungary, neither through the thread of an invasion on which side of Ukraine ever, nor through actually invading.
Yesterday UK’s PM Boris Johnson visited Poland. His Polish counterpart Mateusz Morawiecki said on this occasion ►EN: “Putin’s political aim is to tear NATO apart, and for this reason it is imperative that we show how united we are.” The Polish stance to stay on distance to Russia is clear and has never changed since they were released from the status as Soviet satellite state. So this is a clear statement concerning Hungary and Orbán’s pandering to Putin. Even traditionally Russia friendly Bulgaria has invited NATO troops and together with Romania immediately has refused the idea of leaving NATO.
Voila, the “Council of Judges” (OBT) has already submitted to Orban's "reorganization" by the afternoon. https://obt-jud.hu/sites/default/files/ulesek/Osszefoglalo_2024.11.20.pdf
Putin's spokesman, Peskov: "Freezing the conflict in Ukraine [along the existing frontlines] is UNACCEPTABLE for Russia, it is important for…
According to the 2015 contract, Russia would build the the Paks-2 atomic power plant for 12.5 billion euros, from start…
Current US situation: https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/commercial-backyard-flocks
OT – „Viktor Orbán invites Trump to Hungary to boost re-election campaign …
… Hungary’s far-right prime minister Viktor Orbán is hoping Donald Trump will travel to Budapest in the coming weeks to boost his reelection campaign. …
… Fidesz is hoping that Trump will join Orbán as the event’s keynote speaker, the Hungarian government source said. …“ 😀
Trump can’t speak Hungarian he can’t even give a speech all he can do is bash others like the Fidesz … will Orban’s worshipper come?
I agree overall with the summary of the situation of Hungary relating to Ukraine. There is from my reading of even the independent Telex a certain agreement with the underlying theme that both NATO and the USA have over hyped the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Unfortunately the failures of US intelligence services in Afghanistan believing the US supported government could survive the US troop withdrawal for a year or so against the Taliban, in reality they lasted only weeks, does not promote the credibility of the CIA/NSA/Defense Intelligence services in the eyes of the world.
But we also know that the Russian intelligence services severely underestimated the rampant death from the sky Russian fighter bombers would have to deliver to keep its ally governing in Syria either. There is a propensity for all intelligence services to deliver to their political bosses, be they autocratic or democratic, the intelligence in a way they want it.
So given that reality there is a real possibility of a Russian invasion to one degree or another. Putin like Biden has never personally experienced the horrors of modern combat so it is all an abstraction even if they exhibit empathy for those severely wounded or killed. One needs to have a young soldier die on you while trying to contain their bleeding, or apply a combat Tourniquet to a leg blown off while comforting a 19 year old to understand all of this nightmare that could be coming.
“There is from my reading of even the independent Telex a certain agreement with the underlying theme that both NATO and the USA have over hyped the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.”
Agreed, because the perception here is largely that this is just sabre rattling with Russia trying to show how “strong” it is – a major international player again.
What do you think about Hungary’s role within NATO? I know it’s always been a minor player, but when it blatantly supports the “adversary”, can NATO rely on Hungary in any way? Is there any procedure for excluding countries from NATO or is that totally unrealistic?
Instead of speculations, see the plain Russian brutality.
This is a permanent cancer on the global plane.
Have you noticed the sorrow state of the African continent?
Russia is destroying all hope there, too.
Tactically keeping Hungary in NATO makes sense in the event of a conventional war with Russia. It would allow for US troops to enter into combat if necessary on Hungarian soil faster and in Hungary’s air space. I think conventional war with Russia is unlikely, it will go tactical nuclear pretty quickly, so Hungary will become a smoking wreck it either case.
It is pretty horrible to contemplate, but I see no indication it is being thought about much by Hungarian civilians. I am sure most Hungarian officers are pretty aware of what could happen since they are taught military strategy. Orban is much more concerned about the politics of the moment than potential disasters if Putin pulls the trigger. Old men create wars and young ones fight them is the old saying.
Definitely Putin has already reached his 1st wanted result. His popularity in Russia went up. Whether he just wants to blackmail Ukraine for some concessions, he wants to integrate the rebellious “peoples republics” in Eastern Ukraine into Russia, overthrow the Ukraine government to install a Russia-friendly regime, or unify Russia with the Belarus and Ukraine is impossible to know. I don’t expect that he includes war with NATO in his calculations. Regarding the nature of NATO as alliance for defence Putin also knows that NATO mustn’t attack Russia for an invasion into Ukraine as long as it’s no member. All comments of NATO would have to help Ukraine to re-conquer Crimea as soon as it’s member are just propaganda, Putin can’t expect any NATO government to be that stupid to believe the story. At home it might be working with a badly informed population. Putin has proven in the past that he has no problems in invading neighbouring countries, now it is important to show him that the price would be very high, but to remain below the level of war. Putin has learned in the past that breaching the Budapest memorandum has no serious consequences. Now it’s time to make it serious. Lipavsky, Czech, foreign minister said: “Putin gave Europe a great Christmas gift because he showed that we are not dependent on Russian gas.” https://www.reuters.com/world/czech-minister-putin-gave-europe-gift-gas-crisis-showed-alternatives-exist-2022-02-09/ Of course this would be very ambitious seen the fact that 40 % of Europe’s gas comes from Russia, but this is exactly the weakest point of Russian economy. Since Putin has never said that he would invade Ukraine – the opposite is true – he holds all possibilities, including ending the “manoeuvre” along the Russian-Ukraine border as if nothing at all had happened. Calling NATO to end membership of several countries is allowed as my call that Putin should resign today. And that both have no consequences should be seriously considered.
And Pantanifan: There is no clause that allows to exclude a country from NATO membership, but leaving is easily possible. French did so concerning the military organisation in the 1960s and rejoined about 40 years later. Against treason from the Hungarian side it would be a “don’t talk to them” strategy, I think.
I’m pretty sure the Hitler-Stalin pact was a topic at a Putin-Orban meeting. There were also rumors a few years ago “from the V4” that Orban had spoken aloud the quiet parts of his „Heim ins Reich“ dream. Of course, it would be a hindrance to advance on Ukreinian territories if NATO “allies” are present.
On the other hand, I don’t think Putin will invade Ukraine – now that the focus of the world is on Putin. Some believe that Putin does not have enough money for a war, may we say world war. What if Putin is just as afraid that his lackey will lose his power in the EU … with him.
Agreed!
The Wirtschaftswoche writes that the Russian central bank has set the key interest rate by one point to 9.5%. The reason is the inflation of currently 8.8% that is also caused by the Ukraine crisis. This hits especially the poorer strata of the population. Putin has written economic stability on his [Russia’s] banners.
I mean, 9.5% interest rates are not necessarily an invitation to invest.
The Russian Foreign Ministry said today there were “no results” from the most recent diplomatic attempt to revive the Minsk accords via what is called the Normandy Format — a four-way meeting of political advisors from Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France in Berlin. I am pretty sure this quick collapse of these meetings promoted renewed calls by President Biden a short while ago for the 30,000 US citizens in Ukraine to rapidly evacuate..
Thanks for post today. As I recall, Andorra beat Hungary in football, so I suspect even the tiny states (Monaco or San Marino) might stand a good chance against the mighty Hungarian armed forces:->.