Hungarian News

Hungary: the litmus test for democracy

• March 8, 2022
• Observer
• 20 Comments

by Joseph P. Forgas

The last few decades saw the emergence of populist, anti-liberal political movements in a number of countries that have taken political scientists and psychologists by surprise. The rejection of the liberal democratic model is puzzling, considering that Western liberal democracies have produced previously unimaginable levels of freedom, justice, fairness, equality, prosperity, tolerance and decency. Within Europe, over the past 12 years Hungary has become a self-professed champion of illiberalism, having metamorphosed into a de-facto one party state under the autocratic rule of Viktor Orban, who is incidentally also Putin’s closest friend and ally in Europe. In the current Ukrainian war the state-controlled Hungarian state media even now follows the Russian narrative.

Why Hungary matters

Hungary’s pattern of descent into autocracy has international ramifications, because it is also happening elsewhere. Orbán’s government completely reshaped the country’s political culture and institutions, illustrating how misleading propaganda, conspiracy theories and Identity politics can be harnessed in the service of ethno-nationalism to destroy a democracy. Hungary has become a successful populist laboratory of what can happen when illiberal governance comes to power. Hungary’s strong man, the diminutive Orbán has many followers not only in Central and Eastern Europe; he is also an active promoter of illiberalism in the Balkans. Orbán also made a great impression on Trump, who showered praise on him for a “tremendous job”. The US ambassador to Hungary, David Cornstein, a close friend of Donald Trump, enthused that Trump would love to have the situation Orbán achieved. 

This is one reason why the forthcoming Hungarian election on April 3^rd is of some international interest. This will be a first critical test to see if elections can still provide a last-minute reversal of the populist erosion of democratic principles that are now occurring in many nations. In peaceful times Hungary, just as Estonia, Latvia or Finland, wouldn’t be of importance with its 10 million population which generates barely 0.8% of the EU’s GDP, and rarely commands global attention. This time, it is different.

There is a second important reason why Hungary deserves some attention at this time. Its autocratic ruler, Viktor Orban likes to present himself as a champion of conservative values, the family and Christianity, and likes to pose as a staunch opponent of the destructive and oppressive neo-marxist woke ideology at Western universities and institutions. It seems that some commentators on the political right have bought this manipulative narrative, and nowadays Orban receives standing ovation at conservative gatherings when he berates Western godlessness and left-wing tyranny.

Paradoxically, Hungary’s lurch towards autocracy is drawing legitimacy from the Western world’s larger shift toward identity politics. The growing backlash against political correctness and gender ideology led the Hungarian leader to realize that attacking the corrosive influence of left-wing western radicals and their zany theories may generate significant support both domestically and internationally. Yet as I argued elsewhere, the success of Orbán’s right-wing autocracy is based on the same populist strategies and ideologies that have been routinely employed by autocratic regimes since the 1930s. Orban’s Hungary has become an example to populist political movements and their leaders such as the AfD, the National Front, Salvini, Kaczynski, Erdogan, Netanyahu, Putin, and many others regularly consult with Orbán.

Those of us who value liberty, individualism and rationality must be very careful not to make common cause with right-wing autocrats like Orban, who is openly disdainful of our enlightenment values, and has done his best to destroy liberal democracy. It is all the more disappointing that some Western conservatives are prepared to legitimize Orban’s repressive autocracy. Douglas Murray accepted the hospitality of Orban’s Danube Institute, Roger Scruton received a medal from Orban, and many academics and public intellectuals on the conservative side flock to well-endowed events organized by Orban’s front organizations such as the Matthias Corvinus College and others. Tucker Carson who appears completely ignorant of the realities of Orban’s repressive domestic rule in Hungary, was happy to endorse him recently as a defender of conservative values. The credibility of classical liberalism can be seriously damaged by associating with right-wing dictators like Orban. This is one of the reasons why paying some attention to Hungary at this time may be of interest.

From democracy to autocracy

After the collapse of the soviet system, Hungary was widely seen as one of the most promising post-communist countries likely to make a successful transition from dictatorship to democracy. Unfortunately, this is not how it turned out. In the past 12 years Hungary’s ruler Viktor Orban turned his back on democratic principles, dismantled or subjugated democratic institutions and turned Hungary into a de-facto one party state, described by him in Orwellian Newspeak as the ‘System of National Cooperation’.

Some background may be in order. Orban was elected in 2010 in a free and fair election to replace the discredited previous centre-left government. He immediately proceeded to dismantle the democratic institutions that he saw as limiting his quest for absolute power, seeking to transform Hungary into what he brazenly called an ‘illiberal democracy’ (sic). He enacted a new constitution supported only by his own party, and changed the electoral law to entrench his power. Although in both the 2014 and the 2018 elections Fidesz failed to win more than 50 percent of all votes cast, it both times it secured a two-thirds parliamentary majority.

In an extraordinary speech on July 26^th, 2014, Mr. Orbán openly declared that Hungary is turning its back on liberal democracy. Praising autocratic states such as China, Turkey and Russia, he stated that we have to abandon liberal methods and principles of organizing society, as well as the liberal way of looking at the world… because liberal values today incorporate corruption, sex and violence. Orban often contrasts the “vitality of the work-based economy of the healthy, Eastern peoples as against the tired, immoral, Western citizens subjugated by finance capitalism.”

Key positions like the public prosecutor’s office, judicial authorities, heads of government agencies, the tax office were staffed with party loyalists appointed for 9 years. The public broadcaster and 90% of the media are now under party control and taxpayer’s funds are shamelessly used for party propaganda. Corruption has reached unprecedented levels under Orban’s rule. His childhood friend, a barely literate former gas-fitter has become the richest man in Hungary in just a few years by corruptly receiving countless EU funded government contracts. Orban’s son-in-law has been accused of racketeering and criminal conspiracy to defraud the EU by OLAF, the EU’s investigative agency, recommending prosecution, but Orban’s man at the head of the public prosecutor’s office, Peter Polt, did nothing.

Orban’s strategies to entrench his power are not without historical precedent, but he has been more cunning and more successful than many would-be populist autocrats. Political scientists debate how best to characterize Hungary’s populist autocracy. Some call it a quasi-fascist state, as Orbán’s propaganda methods fomenting division, hatred and nationalism employ the methods used by Mussolini, Goebbels and Hitler. Others define it as a post-communist mafia state, focusing on the all-encompassing corruption and godfather-like hierarchical power structure documented in a carefully researched book by Balint Magyar. Transparency International confirms that corruption has become endemic in Hungary since 2010, yet the number of significant corruption prosecutions has dropped to almost zero.

In summary, Mr. Orban has demolished liberal democracy in his country over the last decade. He has used EU taxpayers’ money to consolidate his illiberal regime. The state administration favours Orbán cronies and family members with government contracts, punishes independent media owners and NGOs or opposition supporters with arbitrary tax investigations, uses state resources for party propaganda. Orban’s party has effectively demolished the independence of the judiciary, as documented in extensive reports by Rui Tavares and Judith Sargentini for the European Parliament. Reports by Transparency International and the European commission have found that in about 50% of public procurement procedures there was only one tender, and the procedures are corrupt. As the Washington Post concluded, what Mr. Orbán offers is little more than the same authoritarian nationalism practised by thugs and charlatans throughout the 20^th century – including Hungary’s pro-Nazi world War II regime, and more recently his good friend, Vladimir Putin. Mr. Orbán has excluded himself from the democratic West; he and his government should be treated accordingly.

While the facade of democracy is maintained, checks and balances have been abolished and institutions are compromised. Criticism from the European Parliament, the Venice Commission, the European Commission and the Sargentini report, the commencement of EU sanctions against Hungary under Section 7 of the EU constitution had no discernible effect.

The unrelenting government propaganda appealing to narcissistic beliefs played a crucial role in legitimizing this process. The carefully fueled sense of nationalism, grievance and collective narcissism provide a crucial component, capitalizing on Hungary’s traumatic history to present Orban as the savior of the nation to his gullible followers, a process we document in more detail elsewhere.

The test of the coming election

Of the roughly 8 million Hungarian voters, about a quarter are solid Orban supporters, whose loyalty has been cemented by unrelenting ethno-nationalist propaganda and a wide array of favours and benefits targeted at them.

It is against this depressing background that the forthcoming election on April 3^rd is of importance. For the first time in 12 years, the different democratic parties encompassing the entire political spectrum from left to right were able to form a common platform to unseat Orban. In a series of pre-selection votes, a single candidate was chosen for each of the electoral districts to prevent the opposition parties fragmenting their vote. The opposition block was also able to elect a prime ministerial candidate, Mr. Peter Marki-Zay, a conservative Catholic father of seven children who actually believes in and lives the conservative Christian values that Mr. Orban only pretends to have. Marki-Zay was until recently the Mayor of a provincial city, he lived for many years in North America, has multiple university degrees and does appear to be an authentic and decent person and a convinced democrat. Orban’s propaganda machine is now in full swing to attack him often with transparently dishonest accusations.

Orban has done everything in his power to ensure his victory. Tens of thousands of loyalist Orban voters from neighboring countries will be entitled to a postal vote, opening numerous avenues for electoral fraud. In contrast, more than half a million Hungarians who emigrated to Western Europe and are unlikely to be Orban loyalists can only vote in person at embassies, in an effort to reduce their participation. Several fake parties supported by Orban’s cronies have also been registered to further split the opposition vote.

Orban has also done his best to bullet-proof his mafia state against the possibility of an electoral upset. Most state institutions are now run by Orban cronies entrenched for nine years, higher education institutions have been handed over to fake foundations also run by Orban appointees for life, the art world, theaters, museums, and granting organizations have all been centralized and run by party apparatchiks, and Hungary’s oligarchs are mostly in Orban’s camp. Even if the oppositions wins power, they will be confronted by a phalanx of hostile institutions and centres of power, as well as empty state coffers as a result of the reckless pre-election spending.

This is precisely what makes the Hungarian elections potentially so fascinating: can there be a peaceful way back from an entrenched and autocratic one-party state to a functioning pluralistic democracy through an election? Many Hungarian commentators are not convinced. Some argue that Orban’s entire 12 year rule was a violation of fundamental constitutional principles, and a new constitution is needed to bring to justice those who destroyed Hungarian democracy. This however may produce such bitter division and hostility that in practice it may be impracticable. How Hungary handles this election and its aftermath is deserving of international attention, because reversals of populist autocracy by democratic means are all too rare in our political history.

The second message here is no less important. Those who sincerely oppose the creeping authoritarianism of left-wing revolutionaries, cultural Marxists, critical race theorists and gender ideologues in our institutions (and I count myself among them) must not to allow authoritarians from the far right like Orban to seduce us and undermine the credibility of our cause. Surely we cannot make common cause with genocidal dictators like Putin just because he is also on record berating the absurdities of political correctness in in our institutions? In the same way, any cooperation with Orban can only harm the cause of liberty. Orban has been the closest supporter of Putin within the EU, doing Putin’s bidding on numerous issues, including repeatedly vetoing EU negotiations with Ukraine. Can he still win with an election such a heavy handicap? It will be interesting to see on April 3^rd…

JOSEPH P FORGAS, AM, DPhil, Dsc (Oxford),  FRSNSW, FASSA
Scientia Professor, Psychology UNSW Sydney 2052

P.S. I must also confess to a personal aspect, as I was born in communist Hungary, escaped and became a political refugee at the age of 22, and perhaps not surprisingly, have been following the country’s ups and downs ever since then.