Sebastian Gorka "will be deputy assistant to the president and serve as senior director for counterterrorism, a role housed within…
Orbán’s Crossroads: three prospects for the future of Hungary
Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán’s March 15th isolationist speech, and his government’s ongoing actions signalling its intention to continue along the path of Putinism, have worried me much more than I expected, in spite of having observed Hungarian politics quite closely for years and harbouring no illusions about the nature of the Fidesz regime. In the light of these developments, here I try to outline several perspectives for Hungary, paths that I consider possible and which lead to very different futures. (As a prior note, I believe that the likelihood of each of these paths depends less on the outcome of the April 3rd elections in Hungary and more on the fate of the war in Ukraine and Hungary’s position in its regard, given that, win or lose the elections, Fidesz will remain a formidable political force.)
The prospects I see are threefold:
A. Hungary becomes a satellite of Russia again
In this scenario, Orbán is absolutely right and Hungary initially benefits from its closeness to Russia, but at a terrible price. The war in Ukraine swings in Russia’s favour, to the extent that Putin achieves his goal of installing a puppet government in the neighbouring country, which will formally or informally become part of Russia. Neither NATO nor the European Union curbs Russia’s further expansionist ambitions on Moldova and the Baltic states, and their failure to respond to this existential threat precipitates the collapse or fall into insignificance of both organisations. Hungary is prepared, after years of Fidesz’s close alliance with Russia, for the new situation, and takes its place in Russia’s new sphere of influence over Eastern Europe. The Fidesz regime is completely Putinised. Hungary’s democratic experience turns out to be an anomaly in its long authoritarian history, a mere temporary break in the continuum from Horthy to Rákosi and from Kádár to Orbán.
B. The “Finlandisation” of Hungary
In this scenario, Orbán can unleash his legendary ability to play two sides. As in the previous scenario, Putin takes control over Ukraine, but NATO and the EU stand firm and Russian expansion stops there. The coexistence in Europe of liberal democracies, entrenched in their alliances but unable to act militarily outside their territory, and the Russian autocracy, stable and powerful enough to survive international isolation, provokes a new Cold War. Along the border between the two blocs, the need to avoid an armed clash leads to the neutralisation of buffer states. Hungary voluntarily leaves the European Union and NATO, and maintains democratic forms even as successive governments strive to placate Russia, which informal influence over the country is considerable. The exit from this vulnerable state of neutrality will not occur until one of the two blocs weakens and dissolves.
C. Hungary’s redemocratisation
In this scenario, Orbán has bet on the wrong horse. Russia’s offensive collapses due to lack of resources and the consequences of sanctions on its economy. Putin achieves virtually none of his goals in Ukraine, but retains power in Russia (or is succeeded by another equally nationalist leader). The EU and NATO become guarantors of the independence of Ukraine and other regional states threatened by Russia. The EU formally or informally completes its federalisation, and takes the Russian existential threat very seriously: manifestations of Putinism in a member state (the dismantling of democracy to build nationalist pseudo-authoritarian regimes) become sufficient reason to intervene economically and politically. To stay in power, Orbán is forced to pilot a transition to democracy in Hungary, but having to relinquish his instruments of state control under threat of EU intervention exposes him to electoral defeat, and sooner or later he is defeated. Thanks to the failure of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the window of opportunity to try to imitate Putin and turn a democracy into an ethno-nationalist mafia state has closed, and henceforth the political struggle in Hungary will be fought within the margins of liberal democracy safeguarded by the EU.
To buy or not to buy… Russian gas
As can be seen from this quick sketch of possible futures, in my opinion any situation in which Russia is not defeated in Ukraine leads to very undesirable outcomes for democracy in Hungary. This is why it will be important to keep an eye on the next steps the EU takes regarding Russian gas supplies: the question of stopping buying it is already on the table, for although the damage to the European economy of such a gesture would be huge, the reality of Europe actually financing a murderous war on its borders has deeply resonated with public opinion, and I believe European political leaders now can count on their societies’ support to implement this extreme measure that would certainly damage Russia irreversibly and put an end to its imperial adventures.
However, there are differences of opinion among EU members on whether to stop buying Russian gas or not, and I believe that right now there is no country more opposed to this than Hungary: not only because its dependence on Russian gas is among the highest in the Union, and because Orbán has hammered his population with the message that such a move is totally unacceptable (his endlessly repeated slogan is that “Hungary will not pay the price of war”, with the emphasis on “price”), but above all because stopping financing the war means that Russia will likely lose it and may be left in a relatively weak position in the post-war period; i.e. option C of my possible futures, which leads to the redemocratisation of Hungary and thus to Orbán’s eventual exit from power.
In other words, by flatly refusing to stop buying Russian gas, by preparing his population to disalign itself from the EU if the latter decides to do so, Orbán is not only rendering an invaluable service to Putin, with whom he has an obscure alliance based on interests or blackmail, but he is also doing himself a favour, since in order to maintain his personal position as undisputed leader of an isolated Hungary it would be preferable for scenarios A or B to happen.
This is the crossroads that Orbán offers Hungary at the moment. Hungarian voters would do well to understand that “Hungary will not pay the price of war” is tantamount to saying that Hungary supports the pursuit of Russian expansionist goals, and therefore amounts to accepting that Hungary will become a Russian satellite or a neutral state outside the EU and NATO, but never again a prosperous country, a democracy, or a place where, given the choice, one would want to raise their children.
Well I don’t know if Kyiv is going to fall tomorrow, but it is obvious there is a lack of…
Voila, the “Council of Judges” (OBT) has already submitted to Orban's "reorganization" by the afternoon. https://obt-jud.hu/sites/default/files/ulesek/Osszefoglalo_2024.11.20.pdf
Putin's spokesman, Peskov: "Freezing the conflict in Ukraine [along the existing frontlines] is UNACCEPTABLE for Russia, it is important for…
According to the 2015 contract, Russia would build the the Paks-2 atomic power plant for 12.5 billion euros, from start…
D. Fidesz wins the elections, but Hungary continues to slide economically and politically compared to other societies. GDP is falling, inflation and debt are rising, and the oligarchs are becoming more powerful. As in Russia, one or the other turns against the leader in this case Orbán. When there are no executions by poison there are unexplained accidents to maintain power.
Putin conquers Ukraine after many months or years in a Pyrrhic victory but is isolated worldwide or at least Europe-wide. The economy is shrinking, not least because Europe is becoming less dependent on oil and natural gas. Hungary, which is already a satellite of Putin, continues to lose population and acceptance. As far as the crystal ball figuratively speaking.
I discuss our host’s option C below, but first: “Hungary and Serbia want peace” was the title of the MTI article in Magyar Nemzet that basically was about a visit by Orban to Serbia to meet with Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucsics. Of course Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó went along for the visit.
As far as I can tell the only thing achieved aside from the railroad handover was a joint statement reading “Hungary and Serbia also want peace. It is in the interest of our countries to stay out of the war, because economic development is not possible in a war.” So how is it possible that MTI is apparently totally unaware that Serbia is looking the other way of many Serbs going to fight on the side of Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. It was not until just today that Air Serbia stopped operating flights to Russia. Overall Serbia’s pro-Russian stance is discussed extensively in this article https://balkaninsight.com/2022/03/08/serb-volunteers-answer-call-to-fight-in-ukraine/ . The pro-Russian Serbian stance is also discussed along with the EU’s Serbia problem in this article https://www.szabadeuropa.hu/a/brusszeli-blog-szerbia-az-eu-vakfoltja/31759450.html
It is more than obvious that Fidesz and Orban are largely in Putin’s camp, but would much prefer he not run about creating wars which are bad for making money and corruption based cash flows. Orban operates like an external Russian oligarch basically wondering what is going on in the mind of Putin when there is money to be made.
I think option C as listed by our host’s essay today is not likely to happen because as it is written it assumes “Russia’s offensive collapses due to lack of resources and the consequences of sanctions on its economy. Putin achieves virtually none of his goals in Ukraine, but retains power in Russia (or is succeeded by another equally nationalist leader). The EU and NATO become guarantors of the independence of Ukraine and other regional states threatened by Russia.”
This scenario does not take into consideration that part of the Russian offensive against Ukraine can include the use of tactical nuclear weapons on initially one Ukrainian city to try and force surrender of the existing government largely on the terms set by Putin. Many of us with military backgrounds here in the USA see this nuclear option as very possible, see for example this discussion https://mwi.usma.edu/would-russia-use-a-tactical-nuclear-weapon-in-ukraine/ .
Now this essay is in a journal sponsored by the US Army’s official officers academy, and even though it does not represent an official stance of the US Army it reflects what many of us are thinking who were in the US Army officer corp and are now not under military censorship.The author of this article is not a light weight (https://mwi.usma.edu/modern-war-institute-alumni/al-mauroni/) Since it was published a few days ago many retired US Army officers have been discussing it in detail, including myself.
I do not see NATO unleashing any tactical nuclear attack against Russian forces in response if Putin did this, because of the inevitable escalation that would take place. The Biden administration has just simply shut down any talk about using nukes in the media. When a reporter asked the president if Americans should be worried about nuclear weapons, he responded with one word: “No.” White House press secretary Jen Psaki had more to say afterward: “Neither the United States nor NATO has any desire or intention for conflict with Russia. We think provocative rhetoric like this regarding nuclear weapons is dangerous, adds to the risk of miscalculation, should be avoided, and we will not indulge in it.”
But Biden knows very well the deeper discussions going on relating to the nuclear weapons issues and Ukraine, because I am sure it has appeared in what is called the President’s Daily Bulletin, which is a top-secret document produced and given each morning to Biden, and is also distributed to a small number of top-level US officials who are approved by the president, and includes highly classified intelligence analysis, information about covert operations of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)/NSA and reports from the most sensitive US sources or those shared by allied intelligence agencies.
Biden also knows that polling data from a new survey conducted by the Pew Research Center shows only 35 percent of Americans supported the U.S. taking military action “even if it risks a nuclear conflict with Russia,” while 62 percent were opposed to the idea. (see https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/third-of-americans-would-risk-nuclear-war-with-russia-over-ukraine-poll/ar-AAV84Gh)
i do not see that Zelensky would have any option but to eventually surrender because Putin would make it clear he is using the same strategy the US used against Japan attacking both Hiroshima and Nagasaki to end WWII and the argument would be made it would save lives in the long run. The apparent assumption on Zelensky’s part that world outrage can contain Putin is not correct in my opinion. Under existing Russian procedures the use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russian forces can be implemented by him without any public discussion at all.
By the way Krisztián Ungváry has a very good short essay in Telex on how in 1939 both Hitler and Stalin legitimized their actions jointly invading Poland, and the comparison between that experience and Putin’s current propaganda is more than obvious. It can be read in Hungarian here https://telex.hu/tudomany/2022/03/19/az-agresszor-marketingje.
First I want to point out that I did not write today‘s post, but it is written by Luis G. Prado, who before contributed in the comment section. I only can encourage again everybody to write something for HN.
In consequence of course I have my own thoughts. Putin definitely has learned something from the reaction of USA, EU, and the rest of the world. He has learned that he has only 5 countries he really can rely on, countries unable to help Russia at all. He learned that the West is decisive and already now hurting Russia a lot. I won‘t exclude that Putin thinks about nuclear weapons, but he knows that this will definitely cause a response. Basically Putin made 2 miscalculations. 1st he thought that Ukraine is a weak and divided state, which will not defend itself and a huge part of the population will be happy to see his troops arrving. The other that the West would not react with anything more than symbolic sanctions.
I can‘t look into his head, just as all the others who try. While Putin is aware of the situation, aware that his troops are despite all the money he invested into them not powerful enough to conquer a way smaller neighbour in a couple of days, and aware that Russia is in serious economic problems even while exporting unlimited gas, he is from his personality unable to give in. Putin is aware that further escalation will result in further isolation. He already lost his face, because his so terrible powerful army has been stopped. Putin can‘t expect any more that countries are threatened by the number of tanks he commands. He can‘t even rely on Russian speaking minorities. So: What now?
So you Nuke them to demonstrate what can happen. I believe Putin could do this. Of course there may still be rational players in the Russian establishment and they might want to shoot Orban if he goes that route, or they may be too terrified themselves to do anything. Putin has already arrested some military people and FSB people apparently they are usually kept their homes posting guards outside, which means their entire families are effectively jailed.
I say Putin has to choose between the damage already done and even more damage. Not only to Ukraine, but to his own Russia as well. Well aware to the fact that Putin has it in his hands whether he wants to destroy the entire planet I am definitely calling for consequences. Not in the sense that NATO should act beyond its borders. But it turned out to be way easier to hit Russia economically than many have thought. The country is already at the edge of state bankruptcy, they have limited food purchases already! Russians are not stupid, enough of them understand why they are disconnected from so many information sources and still it is possible to get informed through VPN. Information will come through, will spread further. Exactly as here in Hungary. People experiencing such an economic shock and experience suppression and understand the reason for all that combined is the greatest threat for Putin. All dictators looked out to give the people food and propaganda, when taking away freedom for very good reasons. Now he is taking them away their money, their jobs, and the very rest of personal freedom, while more and more families have a dead or wounded relative. At some point propaganda doesn’t work any more and people know the difference between experience and message. Seizing a yacht or a villa from an oligarch is one thing, but unrest and an elite against the president is a very different thing. It is impossible to know what Putin thinks, but if there is a rest of understanding of reality he knows that he has the choice between damage and even more damage for Russia as well. I don’t say Putin wouldn’t use nuclear weapons, but it is dangerous for him as well. At the end there are the Chinese as well. Now not interested in Ukraine, but in the advantage of China. Russia in economic difficulties is good for them, they can buy energy cheap and sell goods that are banned by the West. Both a win for China and that’s all what counts to Xi. But a neighbour throwing atomic bombs is definitely not another business chance for China, but a threat. The old political lesson from the cold war: As long as you don’t use them they are terrifying the others, but if you use them you must be terrified by the rest of the world.
Possibility A conceals the fact that Orbán’s character “I don’t care who is God under me” is virtually a stumbling block in itself. Orbán as an official recipient of orders from Russia – today Putin tomorrow who.
Not so funny the character that is very similar to Putin’s caused that only yes suckers have the trust of the leader … just like with Stalin nobody wanted to contradict Putin when he thought he had 10000 missiles but there were only 1000. Or something like that, therefore Putin grasped his situation wrongly just like it is the case with Orbán.
Possibility B also neglects Orbán’s character, but even more I think the conclusion is unlikely. I also do not believe that for Putin the neutrality of Ukraine was a reason for war, even if he claims it.
Possibility C “Orbán has bet on the wrong horse.” Orbán has always bet on the wrong horse. But no one would admit that.
To your comment “It is more than obvious that Fidesz and Orban are largely in Putin’s camp, but would much prefer he not run about creating wars which are bad for making money and corruption based cash flows.” Orbans/Fidesz policy of the last 10 years has always been revisionist I think he is looking forward to the war and of course he would like to recognize some territories if he is given the slightest chance. … And yes, if Putin realizes that he is losing, he would also throw a small nuclear bomb – I think that is likely. The unnecessarily expensive issue of the supersonic missile instead of a cheap projectile that does the same thing was a hint.
“The unnecessarily expensive issue of the supersonic missile instead of a cheap projectile that does the same thing was a hint.”
Absolutely a hint! A hint that Russia has not only tanks without fuel, soldiers that need to go into local shops for their food, or have no idea what they are doing. A hint that the Western (or former Soviet) air defence is useless. An attempt in psychological warfare. But neither an escalation (the target could have been hit with the same explosives transported by other means as well) nor relevant concerning the questionable performance of the Russian ground troops. Beyond psychology a useless hint.
István what will Putin do when he feels cornered. If he cannot demoralize Ukraine and its supporters, Putin has lost. What are his ways out, so far he has been brutal.
The question for me is if Russia uses tactical nukes, what is the reaction of the the rest of the world? Does China remain silent or issue some bullshit statement “we understand the position of Russia”? Out of all the UN Member States that abstained when the resolution condemning Russia’s aggression against Ukraine was adopted, how many will remain silent? And first and foremost, will the EU continue buying gas and oil from Russia or will it finally stop doing so?
Nice speculations.
The current urgent objective is a victory of MZP.
It will be a big step to the pacification of a new Russia.
Well it’s difficult enough to predict what will happen with Ukraine and Russia without forecasting how that will impact Hungary as well, which will also be affected by other factors, such as how Germany reacts to this crisis in the long-term…
My best guess is that Russia can’t actually win this war, even if they manage to install some kind of puppet regime (unlikely), the level of civil disobedience will be so high that it will prove too costly, even for Putin.
Putin has to try and save face, and the only possible way out for him is to keep hold of the majority Russian-speaking territories and get out of the rest of Ukraine as soon as possible.
But even then presumably sanctions will stay in place and – assuming the current unified approach of western countries remains in place – this “adventure” could well cause Putin’s downfall
Reuters last night reported that Ukrainian forces in Mariupol were now cut off from access to the Azov Sea based on their discussions with Ukraine’s defense ministry. There had been street fighting with Russian forces in and around the city center of Mariupol for over 24 hours now. The Kyiv Independent today (https://kyivindependent.com/) in an article indicates that the Russians have again asked Ukrainian forces in Mariupol to surrender as their situation is hopeless. The Independent in it’s update stated “Azov Battalion Captain Svyatoslav Palamar refused, responding, Mariupol will remain a Ukrainian city.” Of course Putin and the Russians see the Azov Battalion as very critical because of its fascist history and the idea that Ukraine is essentially controlled by Nazis is fundamental to Putin’s justification for the war.
It has now been confirmed by numerous reports that an arms depot near the city of Ivano-Frankivsk in western Ukraine has been destroyed by a Russian missile strike. The Russian media is reporting that Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said during a briefing the missile used in this attack was the Kinzhal hypersonic missile with an unknown warhead. Possibly what we call here in the USA a bunker buster the Russian version of it would likely be the KAB-1500L-Pr stated to be able to penetrate 10–20 m of earth or 2 m of reinforced concrete. One version on the Russian bomb that is known weighs 1,100 kg (2,400 lb) being the high explosive penetrating warhead. It has not been confirmed by any western sources that the Hypersonic missile was the method of delivery. The Kinzhal hypersonic missile was designed to deliver nuclear warheads and evade missile interceptor systems.
US officials confirmed to CNN not long ago that Russia launched hypersonic missiles against Ukraine, the first known use of such missiles in combat. The US was able to track the launches in real time, the sources said. The launches were likely intended to test the weapons and send a message to the West about Russian capabilities, multiple sources told CNN.
Trump’s former National Security adviser Fiona Hill was actually listening in to Putin and Trump’s discussion several years ago. Hill said Putin epeatedly made it clear that using nuclear weapons was a real possibility, well before he put Russia’s nuclear forces on high alert, but Hill said former President Donald Trump apparently failed to recognize the gravity of his warnings.
“Putin tried to warn Trump about this, but I don’t think Trump figured out what he was saying,” Hill said. “In one of the last meetings between Putin and Trump when I was there, Putin was making the point that: ‘Well you know, Donald, we have these hypersonic missiles,’ and Trump was saying, ‘Well, we will get them, too.’ Putin was saying, ‘Well, yes, you will get them eventually, but we’ve got them first.'”
“There was a menace in this exchange,” Hill added. “Putin was putting us on notice that if push came to shove in some confrontational environment that the nuclear option would be on the table.” (see https://www.salon.com/2022/03/02/fiona-hill-putin-warned-nuclear-option-was-on-the-table-but-didnt-understand-what-he-meant_partner/ ).
Now Putin has delivered a message this time to President Biden by openly using the hypersonic missile against Ukraine without a nuclear warhead. But very clearly targeting munitions in Ukraine sent by NATO countries. This is really a very dangerous situation.
As long as Orbán stays in power or leads an aggressive opposition against a narrow coaltition-government, it’s hard to see what should prevent further division and resulting destabilization of Hungary.
The import of Russian gas and oil by the EU will be greatly reduced and eventually stop, or Putin will simply stop the export, which would leave Orbánized Hungary even more defenseless against blackmail by Putin than today.
At the same time, political pressure from neighboring countries wil increase steadily (they already know that talks with Orbán are a waste of time, so they will work more directly with the opposition), with demands to side more actively with them, not only in NATO, but also in the EU against their dependence on Russian energy.
Orbán might first try to achieve a deal on a way of initially paying Hungary’s way out of more active contribution in the alliances, but if that fails, he would likely resort to attempt organizing a coup of sorts.
The home economy will suffer badly from any strategy Orbán might persue, and the division and destabilization will grow as a consequence.
An end of democracy in Hungary could actually be closer than most people would expect.
“Russian ambassador to BiH Igor Kalabukhov was a guest on Face TV. He spoke about BiH’s plans to join NATO.
“You decide. It’s like a vicious circle, I’ve already said … Suppose, for example: BiH has become a member of NATO and Brussels decides to put nuclear missiles aimed at Moscow. We will assess the strategic situation”
Asked why Russia is “not bothered” by neighboring countries that are already part of NATO, he said: “How do you know we have no plans against Croatia, Hungary, Poland?””
https://www.index.hr/vijesti/clanak/ruski-ambasador-otkud-znate-da-nemamo-planove-protiv-hrvatske/2348627.aspx
Sounds a lot like Russia has gone back to the paranoia of the old Warsaw Pact days.
In those times, extensive and detailed planning and training for invasions (“preventive attack”) and occupation of European Nato countries was the major military undertaking in the East European armed forces.
Roman Giertych (Deputy prime minister of Poland, May 2006 to August 2007):
“Orban’s plan
11 years ago, at one of the conferences near Rome organized by Cardinal Schonborn, I had a long talk with Prime Minister Viktor Orban. He explained to me how it is necessary to rebuild Europe on the basis of financial support from China and Russia’s military. […] Even then, he was very unflattering about Ukraine.”
“It was Orban who persuaded Kaczyński to try to dismantle the EU.
Orban’s game assumed that Putin would reconstruct the Soviet [borders] through war.”
Putin made clear his war plans to Orban and his desire to create neutral or semi-neutral buffers around the enlarged Russia.
“Putin once tried to start negotiations on this issue, offering, jokingly Western Ukraine to Poland. Tusk and Sikorski even refused to joke about it. ”
“Putin assumed that it would be the best to give Western Ukraine under the patronage of Poland, which was to be carried out as part of, for example, a NATO peacekeeping mission”
Transcarpathian Ruthenia would go to Hungary.
These territorial changes “ensure the popularity and rule of Kaczynski and Orban and their parties for many decades.”
“Russia invades Ukraine and takes Kyiv. However, Russian troops are not entering western Ukraine or Transcarpathian Ruthenia. The local authorities of Western Ukraine and Transcarpathian Ruthenia beg NATO for help before the occupation, and then Poland and Hungary enter the borders defined with Putin and “take care” of this part of Ukraine”
” Russia creates a puppet government in Kiev, joins the eastern parts to Russia, and the west of Ukraine and Transcarpathian Ruthenia form a separate, pro-Western entity under the care of Hungary and Poland. Perhaps Belarus would also get something.”
https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=514701036889190&id=100050478939975
These observations require a Polish/Hungarian revision of their EU member-status to Post-Soviet auxiliary/semi-satellite states, and probably rely on a common Polish/Hungarian ambition to expand their national territories.
But what about Slovakia and Romania, who are also neighbors to Ukraine with national ties to minorities – Would they just step back and let that happen?
A bit OT:
Just read that many Russians who moved to Heviz are spies of Putin and Hungarian tourism might lose 25 percnt or more this year..
Assassins? Saboteurs? Middle men?
Oligarchs?
I don,’ really care …
We moved away but I remember large secluded villas.
Oligarchs prefer billionaire ghettos with high security levels and official discretion – city district and regional gangsters go for more remote and relaxed seclusion.