Well I don’t know if Kyiv is going to fall tomorrow, but it is obvious there is a lack of…
October 15th, 2022
Voila, the “Council of Judges” (OBT) has already submitted to Orban's "reorganization" by the afternoon. https://obt-jud.hu/sites/default/files/ulesek/Osszefoglalo_2024.11.20.pdf
Putin's spokesman, Peskov: "Freezing the conflict in Ukraine [along the existing frontlines] is UNACCEPTABLE for Russia, it is important for…
According to the 2015 contract, Russia would build the the Paks-2 atomic power plant for 12.5 billion euros, from start…
Current US situation: https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/commercial-backyard-flocks
Good, a new thread!
Just two remarks on the catastrophic state of the Hun education system.
PesterMerkur has a statistic on facebook showing that wages for teachers in Hungary are the lowest in the EU!
The Times World Education Index for 2023 has a ranking of all universities.
Semmelweis is in the group 200 – 250
Eötvös in 600 – 800.
All other are not in the 1000 “best” universities, worse than a year before.
https://www.timeshighereducation.com/world-university-rankings/2023/world-ranking#!/page/0/length/25/locations/HUN/sort_by/rank/sort_order/asc/cols/stats
These rankings are on par with Polish and Czech Universities, but far below Austrian and German Unies.
Orban has announced photovolthigh feed on 14.10. – this means an investment becomes unprofitable. Background is Orban’s idea to claim that the existing lines do not “allow” further feed-in by solar cells to blackmail the EU: “the Greendeal is impossible without money.” Further there was an announcement that one can feed in powergrid , but does not get it charged from today. Since one needs at night rather more electricity remains a juicy bill in the winter too …
Supposing the Paks deal still stands, anything that undermines rentability must be fought hard.
Orbán heads further into a carefully set fish-trap, but probably thinks he can turn around. Putin used energy successfully to lure Orbán & Co. into total dependency.
If the Hungarian genius looks north (at Lukashenko), he will see the end of the trap. Once he arrives there, he will have lost popular support and can only stay at the mercy of Putin.
I think István (Chig.) said that a long time ago.
This is the kind of shit Chicago Istvan wrote?
Well Don – Driving against EU traffic isn’t going to bring Hungary closer to valid partnership status, and Orbán’s constant showing off to the people that he is more appreciated by the likes of Putin and Lukashenko, aren’t excatly easily misinterpreted indications of where Orbán sees himself as the leader of Hungary. Of course he knows that by EU-standards, his tenure has passed the “best before” date several years ago as he moves on to lifetime-dictator status by law, in Orbánistan.
Of course this cannot happen with genuine popular support or EU approval, but it can be arranged with the help of Putin.
I think O1G has only one tactic and that is extortion and coercion. He needs money that is obvious, all state payments except wages are suspended. Ergo, the disintegration of Orban should slowly begin, which I do not believe, but which has often been claimed. Instead, something else comes to the fore, namely that Orban takes the money from the population. But let’s wait another five years and it will become clearer.
Continuing the discussion of Orban and Russia. The consistent theme of Fidesz propaganda is Hungarians have to save themselves and the EU/NATO are sinking.
It’s crazy based on the terrible situation of Russian ground forces in Ukraine right now. But one big problem is the USA/NATO/EU have absolutely no plan as what to do if the Ukrainians do push the Russians out of Ukraine and yet the war continues.
More over France made it very clear last week it would not in anyway directly respond to a Russian tactical nuclear attack on Ukrainian forces that could end up fighting Russian forces on the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine with any of its own nuclear weapons on interview with French broadcaster France 2. Why Macron did this is not clear to me.
There was a big argument about this among retired US military officers this week. Part of the problem is there is no consensus as to what is victory in this war. Is creating a situation on constant war on the borders of Ukraine a victory?
If not is the removal of Putin conceivable? Some of the more, go get them retired officers are howling for the CIA to support a clear attempt to eliminate Putin as soon as possible. Honestly I have no idea if those retired officers were once connected to the CIA.
The CIA and military has a joint entity called the Office of Military Affairs (OMA) formally now led by US Air Force Lieutenant General John D. Caine but reporting to the Director of the CIA. Everything about OMA is highly classified and it is actually illegal for any member of the military including retired military to discuss OMA in any public way.
So really Orban can continue to make an argument for his formal neutral stance towards Russia even if the Russians were pushed out of all occupied land. I have also no doubt numerous NATO nations would oppose making Ukraine part of NATO even if the Russians were pushed out because because Article 5 provides that if a NATO Ally is the victim of an armed attack, each and every other member of the Alliance will consider this act of violence as an armed attack against all members and will take the actions it deems necessary to assist the Ally attacked.
Macron is busy trying to cool down the nuclear discussion and keeps a reactive negociative stance. There won’t be any n-word threats or counter-threats coming from him (or the British, for that matter). This could probably change if Putin moves the hybrid warfare into French and British spheres of interest. The recent agreement that the EU must do more to guard and protect the soft spots that are the obvious targets of the hybrid attacks, as well as observing the activities of russian tourists and residents much closer, is a good indication of a more vigilant reactive stance, but still without using the n-word.
The hybrid war places Russia on the threshold of the maze of anti-terror legislation which bypasses most legal obstacles for engaging in armed battles and neutrality isn’t really an option in the process of approving actions.
Let’s wait until Ukraine starts developing a nuclear arm programme – fully understandable as Russia made clear threats. I haven’t heard anything about it but I am sure people in high places in Ukraine must have thought about it and unless Ukraine joins NATO, I don’t see how they could defend themselves against a future aggression if not by having a nuclear arsenal to dissuade Russia from attacking again.
Of course the Russians claim the Ukrainians have planned to restart their nuclear program and put up “experts” from the security services to expound on this. I really have no seen evidence of this in the western media. But everyone seems to agree there is enough technical skill in Ukraine to restart their program rapidly.
Right now the Ukrainians are sort of hiding behind the US nuclear shield that President Biden has implied by his threats of retaliation to any Russian tactical nuclear attack. The President speaks out of both sides of his mouth on this issue, at points talking Armageddon if nukes are used by Russia, at other points saying Putin is a rational player who agrees with the idea of mutually assured destruction. I guess its his version of what is called “strategic ambiguity” that started with his CBS “60 Minutes” interview when he was asked what the consequences would be if Russia used nuclear or chemical weapons in its war in Ukraine.
“You think I would tell you if I knew exactly what it would be? Of course I’m not going to tell you. It’ll be consequential.”
There was a policy conference going on here in the USA on the war in Ukraine that is discussed in this National Public Radio report https://www.npr.org/2022/10/18/1129396409/in-ukraine-trend-lines-point-to-escalation-not-an-endgame. Really the debate going on among retired officers last week I mentioned yesterday was related to this conference which is run by an on line subscription company that can be seen here https://www.thecipherbrief.com/ .
But the US military people are only part of that discussion it includes former CIA, State Department, political science and other people from the USA, but also from Japan and other NATO members (not Hungary from what I saw of the speakers list).
As the NPR report on this conference indicated Andriy Yermak, the chief of staff to President Zelenskyy, told the conference the conflict needs to end with a Ukrainian victory on the battlefield. But Yermak has also stated: “Our intelligence agencies assess the threat of Russia’s tactical nuclear-weapons use as ‘very high.’ (https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-intel-shows-russian-nuclear-161913561.html) Yermak and the Ukrainians define victory as pushing the Russian off of Ukrainian territory regardless of whether or not that would end the war which is let us say for NATO and the USA a conundrum.
Now the fun starts – maybe?
EU commission said that Poland will not get the 75 billions of € “structure help” until they return to democracy.
And Hungary is surely next.
The point is that here only the commission decides – no veto by another of the sh*thole countries or rather governments possible …
https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/rechtsstaat-streit-eu-kommission-will-polen-keine-strukturhilfen-zahlen-a-c2f4f8ef-a6d9-4eb0-a58e-14be76414d7a
Maybe someone finds this in English?
About time! It’s not too early for the commission to show some character.
So yesterday Elon Musk via his twitter account made this pronouncement: “If Russia is faced with the choice of losing Crimea or using battlefield nukes, they will choose the latter. We’ve already sanctioned/cut off Russia in every possible way, so what more do they have left to lose? If we nuke Russia back, they will nuke us and then we have WW3.”
The official Russian media under the control of Putin completely endorsed Musk’s comment. In fact in the English edition of its on line “news service” RT wrote an article on Musk’s statement saying: “Crimea overwhelmingly voted to rejoin Russia in 2014, and therefore falls under the protection of Moscow’s nuclear arsenal.”
Clearly Musk is something of an unstable genius, but he is striking a nerve with his comments on nuclear war. He is also a guy who has worked with many former US military experts in his Space X program including some I knew from my time on Army Reserve duty at US Army White Sands Missile Range is the largest military installation in the US. It is located in the southern New Mexico, US, and is home to White Sands Test Centre, where the world’s first atom bomb was test exploded in 1945. Many of those officers actually believe a nuclear war with Russia is very possible in the immediate future, but do not accept in the least Musk’s ideas on a peace deal. Many of those older missile program officers believe a US nuclear war with Russia can be won all be it with huge losses.
In fact I think it was an idea they got from Edward Teller that I discussed years ago on Eva’s blog when I discussed Istvan Hargittai’s excellent biography of Teller that was published in English in 2010.
This article https://www.army.mil/article/242033/space_break_an_smdc_officers_internship_with_spacex discussed the relationship between Musk’s Space X and the US military to some degree by discussing one officer’s internship with Space X, where there is one there is almost always more. Really the entire Space X company was supported by the US government. See https://www.theverge.com/2019/6/18/18683455/nasa-space-angels-contracts-government-investment-spacex-air-force
What is unnerving about Musk is he intuitively knows a great deal about the US military defense planning for any Russian nuclear attacks just though his work. He does not need to know classified stuff because he can figure out the contours of those things pretty well. Now that he has become a darling of the Russian media I suspect Musk is being carefully monitored by US security agencies.
This article https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/oct/18/biden-intelligence-adviser-previously-vetted-deals-for-israeli-nso-group might be of interest to the Hungarian progressives who were watched via the software developed by the NSO group.
The Washington Post published this investigative report on retired high ranking military officers going to work for Saudi Arabia https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/interactive/2022/veterans-us-foreign-jobs-saudi-arabia/?itid=hp-top-table-main
At least based on the comments I read many readers seemed outraged. I thought to myself why? This has been going on for years with retired officers becoming advisers to foreign militaries that are deemed acceptable by the USA. I also know of French retired officers who did the same for pretty nasty African dictatorships.
Orban has voted for all of the sanctions against Russia. But he just started a big propaganda campaign against them.
“The sanctions by Brussels destroy us.”
[sanctions = atomic bomb]
https://444.hu/kepek/2022/10/18/a-kormanykommunikacio-ledobta-az-atomot-jonnek-a-szankcios-plakatok
Putin = fake “referendums”
Orban = fake “consultations”
https://www.lakmusz.hu/71-manipulacios-technika-a-nemzeti-konzultaciokban/
I find this bizarre and maybe pointless.
I prefer the Kétfarkú Kutya version, much more in touch with reality.
It’s really perverse to show some “bomb” while real Russian bombs are raining down on Ukraine!
But the good news is (though not for Hungarians):
Everybody in the EU sees that O1G is really just Putin’s friend (you can insert a stronger expression here …) so I’m sure he won’t get the money from the EU he so desperately wants or rather needs.
Now I wonder how long it will take for a majority of Hungarians to realize this. The old logic:
It has to get really bad before it can get better!
Video by the US Embassy in Budapest.
https://twitter.com/usembbudapest/status/1582009361106227200
Seems the Visegrad 4 is dead – Poland is no longer a friend of Orbanistan!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/18/how-soulmates-hungary-and-poland-fell-out-over-ukraine-war?
Poland is increasingly aware of a reality Hungary still refuses to openly acknowledge: The prospect of having to physically defend the north-eastern corners of their countries against direct threats. Having opposite views on that isn’t going to bring them closer together.
So while Hungary plays the neutral card and hopes the war will somehow come to an end by itself followed by quick normalization of relations, Poland prepares for battle and a new normal by quickly reducing dependence on Russian energy, sending school-kids in mandatory military and medical training, while the rest of Polish society prepares for general mobilisation and emergency evacuation measures.
Regarding the dependence on Russian energy, Hungary chose to ignore the obvious options of importing non-Russian oil through the established Croatian pipline and by rail from Austria while moving to further secure Russian deliveries and nuclear power.
In the EU, Poland looks increasingly sincere in complying with legal standards, while Hungary continues “the peacock dance”.
This puts Poland far ahead of Hungary for recieving the much needed EU funding, and the Poles don’t seem to appreciate compromising that position by openly holding hands with Hungary. Although EU isn’t likely to completely cut off funds for Hungary, call it “game over” and demand radical structural changes in the Hungarian system, the Commission and EP seem to finally agree that the honeymoon with Orbánistan is in it’s final phase.
For each “hello” there is a “goodbye”.
I agree Poland has anticipated the potential of active combat against both the Russians and Belarus military. The USA has US Army combat units stationed in Poland now including but not limited to V Corps Headquarters (Forward), Poznań Combat Aviation Brigade (Powidz) Combat Support Battalion- (Powidz) U.S. Forward Division Command (Poznań) Aviation Component (Łask) Missile Defense Base (Redzikowo).
The the U.S. Army’s 3 rd Armored Brigade Combat Team of the 4 th Infantry Division (3/4 ABCT) was deployed to Poland and established its brigade headquarters in Żagań.
I know the US Air Force has periodically deployed Twenty F-15s and four F-16s belonging to the U.S. Air Force to Poland. NATO air units have also be repeated deployed there. All US military forces in Europe are currently operating under DEFCON 2 status and have been since the Russian invasion.
My own daughter who is a US Army reserve officer was deployed to Poland for several months. She of course does not discuss it other than it happened and how nice the Polish people were towards US Army forces and she met Poles with relatives in Chicago.
Michael McFaul who was the former ambassador to Russia under President Obama from 2012 to 2014 wrote a complex opinion piece for the Washington Post last week. McFaul argued several months ago that Putin would not use nuclear weapons in Ukraine primarily because it potentially would alienate China and India, turning Russia into a pariah state in the eyes of the world. Has shifted his position somewhat.
Here is what he now says: “Putin’s final escalatory move was to hint even more strongly at using nuclear weapons. President Biden’s recent comments on the specter of a nuclear Armageddon suggest that the U.S. intelligence community believes Putin’s threats are credible.” What McFaul never says is that Biden likely, briefly and extemporaneously spoke the truth, and his own national security staff maintained the deception that there was no indication that Putin was in anyway preparing for using tactical nuclear weapons. In fact Biden’s NSC staff may have forced the President to publicly state Putin was rational and was not likely going to use tactical nukes effectively contradicting himself.
McFaul goes much further than that in his essay. He argues Russian is entering something like a pre-revolutionary situation. He writes: “…support for the war is unlikely to go up until the invasion ends. Elites as well as middle-class families now discuss privately and sometimes even publicly whether their leader has lost his way. Mass refusal to fight in losing wars has happened before in Russia, sometimes precipitating revolution.”
He does not stop there, he informs his readers “ If the Russian armed forces continue to lose on the battlefield, the only way to end this war might involve putting someone else in power in Moscow. To date, the hawks in Russia are loud and public. But if the war continues to go badly, the voices quietly supporting suing for peace will grow. Tensions between the Russian military and intelligence services are already spilling into the open. These tensions will only grow if Russia’s soldiers continue to die and retreat in Ukraine.” He also adds in this essay “Who doubts that Ukraine has sleeper cells in Moscow?”
As I see this essay in the context of comments in the retired US military community I have related on this blog it seems that there may be growing support for US intelligence agencies to take more active measures to promote the exit of Putin.
Putin is a student of the rule of Stalin, and Stalin’s security services ruthlessly purged his own military. Beria proposed on January 29, 1942, to execute 46 generals. Stalin’s resolution: “Shoot all named in the list.” Indeed they were all killed, the lesson for Putin is preemptively kill or isolate all potential military coup plotters and do not worry about killing the wrong people. Below is a photo of Beria’s memo with Stalin’s note for killing his own generals.
Lavrenti Beria is certainly one of the most sinister characters in Russia’s history. His death was ironically identical to that of his many victims, shot in the head in a basement.
I suspect the fact that Magyar Nemzet’s electronic edition even led today with this story https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2022/10/karpatalja-megszerzesenek-magyar-ambiciojaval-vadaskodik-a-volt-munkacsi-polgarmester means that Viktor Baloga is speaking the truth. Especially this quote from Baloga that the article put in bold enlarged font: “I’ll say something else, God forbid, if Putin wins – a part of Subcarpathia in one form or another would come under Hungary’s control in exchange for his loyalty.” (My translation)
I am a little perplexed by this article https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2022/10/a-bukas-lehetosege-ketsegbeesett-lepesekre-sarkallhatja-putyint because Azar Gat, chairman of the Political Science Department of Tel Aviv University, who came to Hungary at the invitation of the National University of Public Service stated pretty clearly Putin is losing and could use nukes.
Gat outlined nothing in the summary of his presentation that was supportive of Fidesz’s pro-Russian stance. Possibly Magyar Nemzet is suffering from political Schizophrenia.
Istvan, thanks for this info – though it makes me shudder to think of what might happen.
This is a real dystopia like in the Cold War when I was calculating the affects of nuclear bombs on the people, never thought it might happen again.
Good to see that all possible (or impossible) alternatives are discussed in the US military however.
Could be a sign that editorial conscience is creeping through cracks in the propaganda wall.
That is possible but somehow I have to wonder if Fidesz is hedging it’s bet on Putin. But uses other voices to so.
If that’s the case, effective damage control will take some degree of admission and perhaps even remorse, by Orbán & Co. seeing how they continue to burn bridges by still going all-in on the pro Putin propaganda. It’s going to sound awfully silly when the song changes to: “We secretly knew it all along – That’s why we voted for the sanctions without saying we would” etc. Would people really buy that?
Russian Army General Sergey Surovikin (aka General Armageddon) on Tuesday spoke to the media for the first time since assuming overall command of the ongoing Russian war in Ukraine. His statement appeared on Rossiya-24.
This was covered very differently by both The NY Times and Washington Post than by the Russians. Surovikin was quoted as stating the military may be forced to make “difficult decisions” relating to Kherson. That was understood by the US newspapers to mean the Russians might have to retreat, but the Russians see it differently.
Surovikin is quoted as saying the Ukrainians were preparing to use “prohibited” means of waging war in the Kherson area. So the Russian media is clearly implying the “difficult decisions” involved using weapons banned by the Geneva Convention since the Ukrainians were going to do so.
Really both The NY Times and the Post discussed none of the references to the introduction of weapons prohibited by the Geneva Convention in combat in Kherson.
Following the rules for this blog I am not linking my Russian sources.
I read the text yesterday. Surovikin accused Ukrainian army of every atrocity that Russian army had been actually doing.
Ob October 19, Putin decreed martial law (highest level **, medium level *)
in the occupied regions of Lugansk**, Donetsk**, Zaporozhie**, Kherson**, Crimea* and
in the Russian regions of Krasnodar*, Rostov*, Voronezh*, Kursk*, Belgorod*, Bryansk*.
Measures permitted by the decree:
forced resettlement,
restrictions on the free movement inside, in and out of these regions,
increased “protection” of the .”public order”, press, transport, communications, energy facilities.
Putin’s spokesman Peskov:
“Putin’s Sochi residence is exempted from the martial law”.
“The drafted soldiers will get at least 195,000 rubels [$3,143] a month.”
A US Army E4 called also a Specialist makes $2,393.40 per month. But if you go into combat or what is officially called “hostile fire” or “imminent danger pay“ the E4 gets an additional $225 per month. Still less than the supposed Russian salary. The life of a combat infantryman is pretty cheap in Russia or the USA. At least the US Army provides life insurance of around $400,000 payable to your designated beneficiary.
Let’s see what they really get.
This article https://www.axios.com/2022/10/18/republicans-ukraine-aid-mccarthy indicates a plan to cut US military aid to Ukraine is going to be promoted by Republicans if they take control of the US House of Representatives. The situation in the US Senate is probably different and not discussed in the article.
I have been concerned about how American popular support for billions in military aid for Ukraine has not been balanced to the realities of US budgeting. For example in the next 20 years the US must begin relocating many populations centers on the East coast of the USA due to rising sea levels, very little of which will be covered by private insurance.
We also are faced with a massive water shortage in the southwestern USA and on and on. I can only hope the US House does not flip next month because Ukraine could be forced to accept a peace deal if the USA cuts military aid. They go through ammunition without much restraint due in big part to the flow from the USA.
Do you mean the government should have been budgeting the help last year already as there was no war to have a balanced budget now?
No the US government needs on an on going basis going forward to balance our many enormous environmental problems with our budgeting process.
The reality is the based on historical data, sea levels rose by one foot in the last century. The latest NOAA report reveals the same rate could impact coastal areas around the U.S. in less than three decades. Republicans will not support preparing the East coast seaside population centers for evacuation slowly over the next 20 years and building billions of dollars of flood control projects in all East coast cities. But it still needs to be done.
Based on historical data, sea levels rose by one foot in the last century.The latest NOAA report reveals the same rate could impact coastal areas around the U.S. in less than three decades.
The money being spent in Ukraine will eventually be targeted by Democrats for reduction too.
Since January 2021, the United States has provided approximately $18.3 billion in security assistance to Ukraine and additional military aid were provided as early as 2014 totaling close to $2 billion.
So far the Federal government has provided NYC
under $2 billion over the last ten years for flood control projects. Billions more will be needed just for NYC, and mind boggling amounts for other cities including for those parts of Florida where it is even conceivable.
This article discusses how the US Senate fits into this https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3696451-gop-leaders-mcconnell-mccarthy-headed-for-collision-on-ukraine-aid/
Yeah, some take the train to travel to help to reduce emissions, and others have several cars. It is a choice everyone has, and had. It is kind of weird to ask for money when your feet get wet which was predicted by science for years but always denied because there was always one “expert” saying climate change is a hoax. A lot of money will be needed to save some pieces of land, but not only in the US, some countries will stop existing. And I guess the republicans will not stop helping Ukraine to fight the rising waters of the ocean, on the contrary, the leaders of this party were as long as I follow US politics a bit always too stupid to understand anything except making more pollution and the rich people richer.
“Antarctica’s Collapse Could Begin Even Sooner Than Anticipated”
The enormous Thwaites glacier will soon melt.
Do not live at the ocean coasts lower than 5 meters above sea level. Do not live close to river banks – rivers will flow backwards for awhile causing inondation.
November 2022 issue
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/antarcticas-collapse-could-begin-even-sooner-than-anticipated/
Yes basically that is correct Tappanch, our climate change problems are overwhelming and even with a radical reduction in the use of fossil fuels it is too late to stop much of what is coming.
Our wild fire station in the west and south west is simply horrendous too. I have driven though miles and miles of national forest land with blackened trees from wild fires out west in the last two years. It looks very much like something out a of science fiction film. Basically we are trying to save as much as possible of our National Parks, but in many cases are letting the National Forrests burn with limited containment.
The fires near Fort Collins Colorado were so massive really it was difficult to breath at time. By the way the same thing is happening in Siberia and the smoke has even drifted to the USA.
Our climate change crisis is a greater threat to the USA than Putin will ever be.
And let´s not forget the rest of the world.
… and Trump.
True 🙂
I’ve read many articles warning about the rising sea level all around Florida.
And a coincidence? Bloomberg has news from California and AMTRAK:
California’s Pacific Surfliner is Amtrak’s second-busiest rail line, carrying nearly 3 million passengers a year between San Diego, Los Angeles and San Luis Obispo, with stunning views of the Pacific Ocean. But rising seas, severe weather and coastal erosion are threatening the train’s future. In late September, transit officials halted passenger service along part of the corridor indefinitely to stabilize a stretch of sliding tracks.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-10-20/citylab-daily-amtrak-s-scenic-california-line-is-at-risk-of-rising-seas
This Telex article https://telex.hu/kulfold/2022/10/21/ukrajna-oroszorszag-herszon-nova-kahovka-vizeromu-hadiallapot-racz-andras-elemzes-helyzetertekeles is based on an extended interview with Andras Rácz. I think he tries to be objective and balanced in his analysis. He is neither pro-Russian or Ukrainian in his presentation which I find refreshing to be honest. In this interview he raises some truly terrifying tactics the Russian could use including blowing up the Nova Kahovka hydropower plant dam that could flood Kherson living nothing but a ruined city, he also discusses also that the Russians are putting draftees with little training in defensive positions and they are serving a purpose of killing Ukrainians while taking massive casualties themselves, which reminds me of Stalin’s mass reinforcements used to hold Stalingrad.
I don’t always agree with Racz either. For example in this interview he is reported to have stated that there are very few examples in the history of the military that this kind of terrorist bombing (that the Russians are using against Ukraine) could destroy a population and force the political leadership to give up fighting. Then Racz is quoted “We saw such terrorist bombings in the Second World War, in Vietnam, the population suffered, but it did not break. I don’t really see that the Ukrainian population will break because of this, but it is clear that a very difficult winter awaits them.” (my translation)
I believe Racz is incorrect about the US bombing campaigns in Vietnam being designed to break the North Vietnamese population, rather in my opinion they were designed to break the political communist leadership. I was a US Army adviser in Vietnam in 1972 and on December 18, 1972 American B-52s and fighter-bombers dropped more than 20,000 tons of bombs on the cities of Hanoi and Haiphong. During the attacks, the U.S. Air Force lost 15 of the 129 B-52 bombers engaged in the air raids, plus 11 other aircraft. North Vietnam claimed that more than 1,600 civilians were killed. This attack was called operation Linebacker II and it was linked to the US’s and North Vietnamese peace discussions called the Paris discussions. Really the Communist leadership of Le Duc Tho began to make concessions due in part to the massive destruction of our bombing campaign along with their failure in March and April 1972 to take An Loc losing a possible 10,000 troops. Many of whom were killed by carpet bombing, a good number by South Vietnamese artillery that I was targeting as an adviser in An Loc.
Of course in 1975 the communists finished off the war and took complete control of South Vietnam. Apparently Le Duc Tho decided granting the USA what we in the US Army called a face saving space for Nixon before the communists finished the job was worth the lives saved by ending the bombing. Andras Racz was not granted his Ph.D. in Modern History until 2008 at the Eotvos Lorand University in Budapest, so his knowledge of the Vietnam war was likely academic and flavored by Hungarian academics who generally opposed the US war in Vietnam.
I have posted articles from the Russian opposition website Riddle before. This article https://ridl.io/endorsement-of-putin-s-gamble-after-mobilization/ provides some polling information collected since Putin ordered the mobilization. Putin’s popularity has declined, but not crashed.
I think it provides a useful different perspective on the situation in Russia than the one most Americans get from the mass media here which has Putin fearing a coup and mass resistance to the draft. I have never seen any indication that Riddle presents a pro-Putin perspective and tries to be objective. I would add it is almost never quoted by newspapers like the Washington Post or the NY Times. I think its way to nuanced for the messaging they want right now reading to the war. Obviously also a very different perspective than one gets from reading Magyar Nemzet which I do most days.
Poor Viktor:
Central commemorations of the 1956 anti-Soviet revolt will take place this year in Budapest and Zalaegerszeg, in western Hungary, the state secretary for international communications and relations told the public media on Thursday, ahead of the October 23 national holiday. PM Orbán will be in Zalaegerszeg. Some believe he would like to avoid a possible embarassing situation or conflict with protesters in Budapest. That is why he chose to celebrate the outbreak of the anti-Soviet Hungarian revolution of 1956 in a rural city.
Source: dailynewshungary.com https://dailynewshungary.com/pm-orban-afraid-of-being-booed-in-budapest-on-23-october/
After O1G’s (non-)reactions to the Russian invasion and the mass killings some people wonder:
Is Putin blackmailing him? How?
https://dailynewshungary.com/expert-putins-russia-blackmails-pm-orban/
The original podcast in Hungarian is also available there.
“Whistling concerts awaited Viktor Orban in Zalaegerszeg, where the Hungarian right-wing nationalist prime minister delivered a speech on the occasion of the national holiday commemorating the 1956 Hungarian Revolution.” Because he is a coward he did not stay in Budapest I read …
It is a somewhat difficult balancing act to herorize the 1956 uprising as an act of courageous Hungarians without suggesting that nothing has changed. One should not wake sleeping dogs but sometimes it would be good.
I agree with Don that there is danger for Orban in the entire 1956 revolution now with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The comparisons are apparent. As a born and raised American Hungarian anti-communist I have to say based on the media coverage of Orban’s speech at the József Mindszenty Visitor Center in Zalaegerszeg. commentating the 1956 Hungarian revolt against the Stalinist dictatorship I am pretty disturbed.
The old story I was taught as a Catholic American Hungarian that the USA and the west betrayed Hungary in 1956 was repeated by Orban who said “If the West had not betrayed us, we could have succeeded in ’56.” Eva our late host, and a veteran of 1956 discussed this on her blog repeatedly over the years and her good friend professor Charles Gati discussed it in detail in his book “Failed Illusions” concluded the betrayal theory had little basis in reality but there was indeed US posturing that pretended to be direct support for the revolution. In fact my experience in Vietnam and the pulling of all support for the corrupt South Vietnamese government leading to the 1975 collapse has some similar qualities.
Orban also spent a great deal of his speech praising the memory of Cardinal József Mindszenty, who I actually prayed for as a child while he was still hold up in the US Embassy in Budapest. As a Hungarian Boy scout I also belonged to what was called a Cardinal Mindszenty study group which where we learned about the horrors of Communism.
Of course Orban not being a Catholic could not call for József Mindszenty to be canonized or as it is more commonly known declared a Saint. In the Catholic faith this means the Church’s official recognition of sanctity would declare that Cardinal Mindszenty is now in heaven and that he may be publicly invoked and mentioned officially in the liturgy of the Catholic Church, including in the formal Litany of the Saints. József Mindszenty after leaving the US embassy did come to the USA but by then I was serving in the USA Army in Europe so I never saw him. I of course went off to Vietnam as a young officer to combat communism about which I thought I understood everything having been completely indoctrinated. I honestly understood very little about how communism in Vietnam was linked to a long history of anti-Colonialism and it was in fact South Vietnamese officers, who were themselves anti-communists, who explained some of that to me. I honestly was taught nothing about the history of colonialism in Vietnam as part of my training in the Vietnamese language in the USA prior to my deployment.
But I think the really interesting thing about Orban’s speech was that it was held in Zalaegerszeg but why? István Hollik, the communications director of Fidesz, told Magyar Nemzet why, clearly in part it was because Klára Dobrev, the shadow prime minister of the Democratic Coalition, called people to the streets of Budapest on the occasion of the anniversary. Indeed it would prove to be a pretty big embarrassment to Orban if thousands of teachers and others protesting Orban’s rule turned out on the streets. So off to Zalaegerszeg Orban went. Even at his speech at Zalaegerszeg according to Telex at the location of the event in Zalaegerszeg was cordoned off, and people living in the area were only allowed to enter their homes on Saturday with ID cards and address cards.
Orban in his speech tried to explain his retreat from Budapest for this speech stating: “According to the left, which looks down on us rural people, it is inappropriate to celebrate today in Zalaegerszeg.” So he tried to make it appear that the he was doing the 1956 speech in rural Hungary to praise their role in the revolt. Cardinal József Mindszenty had many shortcomings as I learned over the years after reading many of his own writings, but unlike Orban he was not a coward. I would dare Orban or his Fidesz followers to produce a photo like the one below where even as a young man Orban in posed with Hungarians in open combat against Russian forces as did the Cardinal in 1956.
Sergei Shoigu the Russian defense minister called up several NATO members including the UK, France, and Turkey claim that Ukraine was planning to detonate a “dirty bomb” (a weapon combines radioactive material with conventional explosives) with Western assistance somewhere in Ukraine.
French Armed Forces Minister Sebastien Lecornu confirmed on Sunday that he had held talks with his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu and Shoigu raised this issue with him. The UK has also confirmed a similar phone call. The US Secretary of Defense not long ago had a phone call with Shoigu but none of the contents of that discussion were made public.
Russia has in the past blamed its victims for actions it has carried out. These Shoigu calls are very unnerving at the least.
Apparently not long ago Eastern Standard time Sergei Shoigu called up the US Sec of Defense to dirty bomb https://www.reuters.com/world/russias-shoigu-holds-second-call-with-us-defense-secretary-three-days-2022-10-23/
Lili Pánkotai performed in a secondary student’s poetry slam at October 23 teachers demonstration held in Budapest that Orban was afraid of. The full video of the performance is available on Hungarian social media.
Her school Nagy Lajos High School of the Cistercian Order in Pécs denounced her presentation, a denunciation that was featured in most Fidesz controlled publications, stating: “We categorically reject all of its content and narratives that are incompatible with Christian values.”
The school authorities claimed in particular to be outraged by her use of vulgarity to make her points over the cultural and intellectual paucity of Fidesz propaganda broadcast 24/7 in Hungary. Here is my translation of one part that particularly enraged the school officials, it is so horrible they did not dare repeat it: “For me, dear Hír Tv, the first thing will never be who sucks whose dick with all their might (…), but that someone accepts their opinion.” (If you watch the full video of her presentation it’s obvious that English translation does no justice her 3 minute presentation in Hungarian.)
She used the F-word repeatedly in her presentation, which should shock the sensibilities of no Hungarians including clerics in Esztergom. Where the most basic vulgar expression in Hungarian is: Baszd meg!
Lili Pánkotai in her orginal Hungarian also used faszszopó, which means dicksucker in translation, a phrase I have heard Catholic priests use, but not during mass in Esztergom. There are a lot more swear words and phrases in Hungarian and some my grandfather and great uncle used that came from serving in the Hungarian military during the Empire are rarely used today. I would ask my father to explain vulgar phrases to me they would use and I recall him telling me – megtanulod ha nagy leszel (you will learn when you grow up).
László Kövér I think is the king of the vulgar. I mean what is more vulgar than his publicly comparing same-sex couples wanting to adopt a children to pedophiles. I have heard drunks in Esztergom publicly ranting about mocskok zsidok es büdös ciganok (filthy Jews and stinking Gypsies). Where is my Church in denouncing that vulgarity? I totally support Lili Pánkotai and of course already had a big Facebook argument with some of my cousins expressing hypocritical outrage at her video which is now all over social media.
I think the best translation in English for ‘baszd meg!’ is ‘you know’ since it punctuates sentences so well… 😇
Telex today did an interview with Lili Pánkotai which can be read at https://telex.hu/belfold/2022/10/27/pankotai-lili-interju-kiallas-beszed-slam-poetry-tanarok-diakok for those who read Hungarian. But I read it in English translation too via google and it was totally comprehensible. I thought about extracting some of it for this post, but really there is too much in the interview to do that.
I got the feeling from reading the interview that her family is under some pressure because of this. She showed some very human compassion for the situation they have been put in.
The basic theme of this article https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/24/ukraine-war-heading-for-uncontrolled-escalation-says-russia was discussed among retired military officers over the weekend on various strategic studies blogs.
Overall I am seeing what could be called Russian nuclear threat exhaustion. Some higher level retired officers are at the point where they wish Putin would unleash his nukes so whatever follows can happen.
There are a wide variety of opinions on the NATO and US response to the Russian use of nukes would be. Most believe it would be escalating in nature. One great worry coming from the voices of retired US strategic command ( STRATCOM ) officers is hesitancy in firing ICBMs, land based, on board nuclear submarines, and loaded on aircraft.
There is a lot of nervousness over Russians taking out our weapons in a massive stealth first strike followed up by simultaneous with a Chinese attack. I guess it could be called the Pearl Harbor syndrome. Adm. Charles Richard, commander of U.S. Strategic Command has himself reflected those concerns in testimony before a Senate Committee “The Command’s priorities are: 1) above all else, we will provide strategic deterrence for the Nation and assurance of the same to our Allies and partners; 2) if deterrence fails, we are prepared to deliver a decisive response, decisive in every possible way; and 3) we will do this with a resilient, equipped, and trained combat-ready force.”
But as the commentators on those blogs note Adm Richards can’t order a strike only President Biden can. Adm Richards in his Senate presentation noted “As the warfighter advocate for missile defense, USSTRATCOM must focus developers on examining, developing, and exploiting advanced concepts and technologies. Research and development across all domains is key to ensuring we keep pace with evolving adversary threats, such as hypersonic weapons and cruise missiles. Future space-based sensors may be able to provide birth-to-death detection, tracking, and discrimination of hypersonic glide vehicle, cruise missile, and ballistic missile threats globally. These abilities cannot be fully achieved with the current or future terrestrial-based radar architecture due to the constraints of geography and characteristics of future missile threats.”
This is an admission of sorts that currently the USA will have to rely on some guesswork in ordering a full scale attack on Russia or Russia and China combined. (Here is a link to the unclassified version of Adm Richards presentation https://www.stratcom.mil/Portals/8/Documents/2020_USSTRATCOM_Posture_Statement_SASC_Final.pdf )
Now we have both elected left Democrats and isolationist Republicans calling for direct negotiations between Russia and the USA to settle the war in Ukraine. See
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/24/biden-ukraine-liberals/
This letter was formally withdrawn by the left Democrats today saying it was a mistake and not properly vetted.
It’s getting crazier and crazier!
https://dailynewshungary.com/orban-after-the-war-there-will-be-a-need-to-guarantee-the-rights-of-the-hungarian-minority-in-ukraine-interview/
Orbán shows his sympathy for the AfD, calls CDU/CSU left wing but he still wants the EU money!
And don’t even think about the next 180 days of state emergency when no laws or human rights have to be respected!
To the right of us is only the wall …
All these delusions from a compulsive liar’s sick mind aren’t really worth repeating in public, but when it’s stated that “We technically fully meet all the requirements that have been put forward”, it’s simply meant that he thinks the paperwork has cooked long enough to be served as a substitute for food.
O1G is funny in a way – now he also supports the activities of Steve Bannon who did everything right in his opinion!
https://dailynewshungary.com/orban-stands-up-for-steve-bannon/
For those who can read German an interview with O1G:
https://www.budapester.hu/politik-interview/wir-ungarn-sind-ein-freiheitsliebendes-volk/
Fascism at its peak!
The interviewer is Jan Mainka, founder, editor and producer of the Budapester Zeitung, another Fidesz mouth piece.
Jan Mainka is a Fidesz and Putin loyalist – his right-wing nationalist smear sheet is paid for by putinist money. He is a Janus when it comes to bending reality. A former East German and his “friends” in Fidesz’sz “Budapest newspaper” who found a Russian-funded “home” there Budapester Zeitung … Hungarianvoice was big fan of Mainka … others not – me included.
Don, yes. But how does he expect to move any of the relevant people in Germany eg?
Calling everybody except the AfD (Meloni, LePen etc) “leftist”, including the conservative CDU/CSU?
He is areal fascist imho and probably ignored by all sane people in the West.
Proving again that Orbanistan is just a Balkan sh*thole country which might as well leave the “horrible” EU.
So today in Magyar Nemzet there is an interesting article by Aron Ternovacz titled https://magyarnemzet.hu/belfold/2022/10/dk-szervezo-pedagogus-tuntetes-demonstracio . It is about how DK supposedly had complete control over the demonstration which according to Ternovacz was supposed to be teachers and students demonstration and it “became no longer a teacher and student demonstration,” but rather was a front for DK and of course Ferenc Gyurcsány, his wife Klára Dobrev, Amnesty International, and behind that the Soros network. How did Aron Ternovacz figure this out?
Well he did not, the article is completely based on the work, or rather the assertions of the Fidesz controlled think tank Szazad Institute which has been discussed before on this blog. Yesterday I posted how Fidesz organized a campaign against Lili Pánkotai performed in a secondary student’s poetry slam at the October 23 teachers demonstration. Now Aron Ternovacz by association with the demonstration turns Lili Pánkotai a Catholic school secondary student into a tool of the hated Jew Soros. Where have we seen all of this type of journalism before, one place would be Vőlkischer Beobachter under the direct control of Goebbels that is for sure. By the way who is Aron Ternovacz, he is a Hungarian speaking Serb who grew up in Novi Sad (Újvidék in Hungarian) Serbia. He came to Hungary and studied physiotherapy at University of Szeged and later went to SZTE in Szeged and eventually went to work at Vajdaság Ma a Fidesz controlled Hungarian language news paper in Serbia that supports editorially a unified Hungarian nation. From there he worked his way up to the top of the Fidesz propaganda papers Magyar Nemzet. Hopefully Aron was a better physiotherapist than he is a journalist/propagandist.
This article is about areas on the East Coast of the USA that are facing rising sea levels and are being abandoned https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/10/25/flood-zone-homes-buyouts
If climate change can be contained the rising sea levels may end in 30 to 50 years. But these people are getting out now. This as I mentioned will cost billions and billions in the years to come.
The Russian media today is reporting: “Kiev might be shelving its alleged ‘dirty bomb’ program after Russia exposed it, Moscow’s deputy permanent representative to the UN, Dmitry Polyansky, claimed on Tuesday. He added that Ukraine may well have time to do this before the upcoming nuclear inspection.”
Really the Ukrainians by calling in the UN inspectors totally derailed Putin’s game relating to the dirty bomb for the moment.
Today Magyar Nemzet ran this article https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2022/10/az-usa-hadserege-nem-lenne-alkalmas-egy-haboru-sikeres-megvivasara the title translates to “The US military would not be capable of successfully fighting a war.” The article was written by the pro-Russian think tank V4NA which our former host Eva wrote about on her blog https://hungarianspectrum.org/2019/05/13/v4na-hungarys-independent-news-agency-on-the-march/.
Supposedly this assessment of the dire state of the US military is based on the 2023 annual report published by the Heritage Foundation of the US military, but the article provides no link to the report. Here is an actually link to the report https://www.heritage.org/military. That report never anywhere in it states anything near “The US military would not be capable of successfully fighting a war.” It is a highly critical report because the Heritage report promotes the idea of the US military has as its “primary purpose … to make it possible for the U.S. to physically impose its will on an enemy when necessary.” In other words the Foundation wants a military that can implement US military hegemony on a global scale, which is a very aggressive vision to say the least.
If one reads the section of that report on Russia it is not at all surprising the pro-Russian V4NA article does not mention it. It is a very significant section of the report and well worth reading, but its conclusion is not one V4NA would not widely spread to the Hungarian public. For example the Heritage report states: “While Russia is not the threat to U.S. global interests that the Soviet Union was during the Cold War, it does pose challenges to a range of America’s interests and those of its allies and friends that are closest to Russia’s borders. Russia possesses a full range of capabilities from ground forces to air, naval, space, and cyber. It still maintains the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, and although a strike on the U.S. is highly unlikely, the latent potential for such a strike still gives these weapons enough strategic value vis-à-vis America’s NATO allies and interests in Europe to ensure their continued relevance.”
There are many aspects of the Heritage report I would question particularly this one: “Though Russia has expended much of its arsenal of munitions and has suffered significant losses in its war against Ukraine, high energy prices and the decision by several countries to continue trading with Russia despite sanctions placed on the country are ensuring a steady flow of funds into Russia’s accounts that Putin will assuredly use to replenish stocks and replace losses. The result will be a Russian military rebuilt with new equipment and seasoned by combat experience gained in Ukraine.” I disagree completely and do not think the Russians will quickly come back from the losses they are taking in this insane unprovoked war in Ukraine, in fact much of the Russian professional officer corp has been lost in combat. Actually at a level likely beyond what I experienced during the Vietnam war where the casualties for officers where such that we experienced over 6,000 casualties for officers alone.
Because I was in the US Army during the end of the Vietnam war and beyond it I could see the impact those officer casualties had on the Army and it lasted for years. In fact there began to be myths in the Army post Vietnam that becoming a junior infantry or artillery officer during a time of combat was the equal to a death sentence. Which was not true, but became a really impediment to recruitment. Russian losses will not easily fixed up either, fighting a hard war like Putin has made his professional military has real consequences for years.
It might have slipped your mind, but there is no such thing as a “V4NA”. Earlier this year, it was exposed as yet another Budapest based government news media scam. By registering changing letterbox-hotel addresses in London, they falsely pretend to be an international operation, which happens specifically not to be the case.
Telex has published a series of articles about Cardinal Mindszenty started by Krisztián Ungváry. There are three articles that are relevant to read for those who can read Hungarian or are ok with using google translation. They are:(1) https://telex.hu/velemeny/2022/10/23/ungvary-krisztian-mindszenty-jozsef-biboros (2) https://telex.hu/velemeny/2022/10/25/mindszenty-alapitvany-velemeny-valasz-ungvary and (3) https://telex.hu/velemeny/2022/10/26/ungvary-mindszenty-valasz
I am sure if Eva were still with us she would have spent a good amount of time preparing an extensive post on the Spectrum relating to this exchange about Cardinal Mindszenty.
Eva’s article from 2016:
“An inveterate anti-Semite or a national hero?”
https://hungarianspectrum.org/2016/04/24/jozsef-mindszenty-an-inveterate-anti-semite-or-a-national-hero/
I’ve just received my “national consultation” questionnaire – this is the first time I can actually complete it with all the “wrong” answers (as far as the Hungarian government is concerned).
Does anyone know if the opposition has organised a boycott of the “consultation” process? I did hear somewhere that Momentum were organising a collection of the paper to be converted into briquets for winter heating – anyone heard about this?
I might just send this one back with all the wrong answers!
Russia admiring Orbanistan is getting more isolated every day:
https://kafkadesk.org/2022/10/27/polands-senate-recognises-russia-as-a-terrorist-regime/
The Polish Senate unanimously passed a resolution on Wednesday branding the Russia as a “terrorist regime”.Passed with the support of all 85 senators present (out of 100), the resolution calls on “all countries that support peace, democracy and human rights to recognise the authorities of the Russian Federation as a terrorist regime”
Orban’s business deal with the Russian Rakhimkulov oligarch family was approved today, without a hearing, by the so-called “constitutional” court.
This is another step in the Dagaly spa saga.
https://hvg.hu/ingatlan/20221026_Alkotmanybirosag_13_kerulet_epitkezes_Rahimkulov_Ruszlan
https://www.alkotmanybirosag.hu/uploads/2022/10/sz_iv_108_2022.pdf
Sorry. This is another of Orban’s “einstand”s (robberies). It happened in district 14.
The district 13 “einstand” legalization text is below:
page 2390.
http://kozlonyok.hu/kozlonyok/Kozlonyok/1/PDF/2022/23.pdf
I was wrong again about the source.
“Magyarország független, demokratikus jogállam”, de “a jogállamiság elve nem minősül Alaptörvényben elismert jognak”
https://nepszava.hu/3173869_alkotmanybirosag-xiii-kerulet-ruszlan-rahimkulov-epitkezes-tarsashaz
A new record! O1G must be proud …
Hungary ranks 73 out of 140 countries in the Rule of Law Index – it fell 4 places and now is last in the EU and EFTA
Source: dailynewshungary.com https://dailynewshungary.com/hungary-ranks-73-out-of-140-in-rule-of-law-index/
But most Hungarians (two thirds of the Fidesz voters, says a statistic) seem to be happy with this and also prefer the glorious USSR to the inglorious EU – except for the money of course.
How low can you go …
See above the rulling of the Orbanist “constitutional court” :
“the principle of the rule of law is not a recognized right in the Basic Law”
B. Orban, the “political director” of V. Orban’s staff
#1
will approve the professors at the university “Nemzeti Kozszolgalati”, not the senate of the university.
At another, privatized-to-friends-&-family university (MCC), he appointed a certain John Laughland, who was subsequently arrested in Britain for spying to Russia.
https://hvg.hu/itthon/20221026_NKE_MCC_Orban_kinevezes_oktatok_kutatok
#2
has announced that V Orban’s government can ‘act tougher’ with the European Union.
https://hvg.hu/360/20221027_Orban_Balazs_A_magyar_kormany_kesz_a_kemenyebb_fellepesre_Brusszel_ellen
‘Payment systems should not be owned by the West’
‘We should diminish the role of [dollar and euro] in payments’
‘I am not like Khrushchov who withdrew the nuclear missiles unilaterally from Cuba 60 years ago.’
Actually a deal was made, Russian missiles out of Cuba, US missiles out of Turkey not up graded and US plans for an invasion of Cuba aborted. Khrushchev made a trade with Kennedy. There is some dispute as to whether removing the missiles from Italy was part of the secret agreement. Khrushchev wrote in his memoirs that it was. It was not a unilateral withdrawal on the part of Khrushchev. Why Putin is lying about this is unclear to me.
The official transcript is different from what I understood watching Putin live.
See below!
Putin started his speech hours later than scheduled, at 4:16 PM Central European Time.
I will not put up the link.
“Western values are not universal”
“The West has banned Dostoyevsky.”
‘Liberalism and open society are bad.’
“Unlimited despotism comes from unlimited freedom”
Unlimited despotism can come from limited freedom too, you are the witness, Mr Putin,
“The US killed [the Iranian military chief] Soleimani in the name liberal democracy”
“They criticized the Hungarian government for being Christian”
“Nobody can dictate to us how our society should be”
The drone strike on Soleimani, was ordered by President Trump who supposedly is a good and wise friend of Putin. Trump spits on liberal democracy and much prefers authoritarian rule.
“Our goal is to create a multipolar world order. Europe should also be autonomous [of the US]”
“The West actively supported the terrorists in the Caucasus in the early 2000s”
(I thought they were Chechen Islamists, not really favored by the West after 2001)
‘Payment systems should not be owned by the West’
‘We should diminish the role of [dollar and euro] in payments’
“Ukrainian are Russian who were influenced by the Poles from the 14th century”
“Ukrainians are Russians who were influenced by the Poles from the 14th century”
It is Lenin’s fault that after 1917 Ukraine received the Donietsk Basin”
I am not like Khrushchov who withdrew the nuclear missiles unilaterally from Cuba 60 years ago.’
From the official Russian transcript of Putin’s October 27 press conference:
Q:
‘Do you plan to occupy Odessa?’
(“Do I need a Russian or an Ukrainian visa in two years?”)
A:
No straight answer.
” Odessa was founded by Catherine II ….”
It is “one of the most beautiful cities in the world. ”
“in recent years, at least when I was in Odessa, it did not make the best impression on me, because the public utilities were clearly in decline, this was evident even from the facades of buildings”
‘US should force Ukrainian government to negotiate wit us’
Q:
“Literally tomorrow we will have 60 years of the main day of the Caribbean crisis – the climax, when, in fact, we decided to retreat.
Can you imagine yourself in the role of one of the leaders, or rather, Khrushchov, it turns out? Can we get to this point?”
Putin:
“No way. No, I cannot imagine myself in the role of Khrushchov, by no means. (Laugh.)”
Q:
” Good. And in the role of a leader who will have to decide such a question?”
Putin:
“We are ready to resolve any issues, we do not refuse. In December last year, we proposed to the United States to continue the dialogue on strategic stability, but they did not answer us. Last December. Silence. ”
“we are developing our modern technologies, delivery vehicles, including hypersonic weapons. In principle, we do not need anything, we feel self-sufficient.
Yes, it is clear that someday they will catch up with us in terms of hypersonic weapons, this is obvious: for a high-tech country this is only a matter of time. But they have not caught up yet. We have everything, and we are developing these technologies.”
thanks for that Tappanch, by the way its not in either the NY Times or the Washington post today
I posted your clip from Putin’s Q and A response on the resolution of the Cuban missile crisis not long ago on a blog for retired US military officers. There have been already 25 comments on it.
Many really come close to saying if Putin believes Russia on the strategic level can’t be defeated by US nuclear forces because of hypersonic weapons then, a first strike becomes an option for the USA. Possibly Putin does not know that hypersonic missiles carrying a nuclear warhead have to slow down dramatically prior to detonation they are also not hypersonic at the start of their flight. (see https://www.airandspaceforces.com/article/hypersonics-defense/ )
Putin overstates their invincible nature which makes him ever more dangerous because his strategic missile commanders might believe this too.
I have to wonder Tappanch if Putin ever contemplated that there were retired high ranking US military officers that would see his comments in such a way? I don’t think these retired officer are all mad old cold warriors either, Putin plays very scary game with nuclear weapons. It obvious to me Orban and his team really understand very little where this all may be going.
It looks much as if Putin principally ignores the risks of underestimating adversaries, firmly believing in a final victory of sorts.
Apart from real estate, the richest 57,400 people in Hungary possess 141.8 million forints (= $346,000) on the average in private banking.
https://www.portfolio.hu/bank/20221028/ime-a-friss-szamok-a-leggazdagabb-magyarok-vagyonarol-nyugtalansag-van-a-levegoben-575593
So today we have this article https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2022/10/szijjarto-peter-donald-trump-modelljet-kellene-hasznalni-az-ukrajnai-haboruban the title translates to “Péter Szijjártó: Donald Trump’s model should be used in the war in Ukraine.” In other words Hungary is asking the USA have discussions similar to those between Trump and Putin in 2018, This CNN story recalls what took place https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/16/politics/2018-trump-putin-summit-what-happened/index.html . Fiona Hill who was a national security adviser for Trump then has an interview of what a complete idiot Trump was in the 2018 meeting and her panic at what she was seeing while it was happening. So there is no doubt why Péter Szijjártó sees the idiot Trump as the model negotiator with Putin, it paves the path for Putin to save himself from the nightmare he has created in Ukraine.
Orban again echoed Putin’s propaganda line today:
“Ukraine is a dysfunctional state”, which “was unable to operate its economy even before the war”
“Ukrajna működésképtelen állam”, ami „már a háború előtt sem tudta működtetni a gazdaságát”
https://444.hu/2022/10/28/orban-ukrajna-mukodeskeptelen-allam-ami-mar-a-haboru-elott-sem-tudta-mukodtetni-a-gazdasagat
As a sharp contrast, this is the Czech point of view (on the wall of the Czech Interior Ministry):
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FgJNOv_WAAEd7Od?format=jpg
Are the majority of Hungarians really that crazy?
According to a survey more than 90% want peace between Russia and Ukraine but two thirds think the fault lies with “the West” – they have a bad opinion of Zelensky, Biden and Mrs von der Leyen …
But O1G is their hero!
Source: dailynewshungary.com https://dailynewshungary.com/hungarians-want-peace-according-to-a-survey/Zelensky
Unbelievable!
I just hope that the EU doesn’t give an money to Orbanistan until …
A poll from the beginning of October:
(sample size = ???)
‘Do you agree with Orban’s opinion that European sanctions against Russia do not work and Europeans should not pay for them?’
FiDeSz voters: 80% yes.
MiHazank voters: 44% yes
Opposition voters: 9% yes.
https://24.hu/belfold/2022/10/28/szankcio-inflacio-oroszorszag-ukrajna-haboru-idea-intezet-kutatas/
No Wolf, they aren’t crazy. A majority of Hungarians are subconsciously manipulated by the all-dominant media propaganda machine. It prepares and plants images, opinions and views in Hungarian minds, dilligently nurtures these images, opinions and views to maturity, at which point statistically objective surveys and polls are guarranteed to harvest certain results.
Maybe sometimes they just accept ideological domination too as being just easier.
Sure, especially when openly disagreeing with the popular opinion makes you “brainwashed by the wrong news”.
According to 2019 data I just looked at close to 58% of the Hungarian population do not have functional skills in any other language.
So as has been pointed out the information being put out by team Orban dominates.
What I find even more interesting is that among some of my University educated extended family their foreign language skills learned in secondary school or at the University level are rarely used in Esztergom. Their spoken English is far superior to my spoken Hungarian.
Even though they have access to computer based translation programs they are really only used for technical and business purposes. The idea of reading a German newspaper or an English language newspaper as a source to check up on the BS coming nightly from Hir-TV is not done. I do admit a very few of my relatives read Telex and are more liberal.
Because Budapest is much more cosmopolitan there is much more awareness of international news. I think that is why Orban took such a hostile stance against Budapest liberals and opposition politicians in his 1956 commemoration speech. Budapest is az igazi Magyarország.
Orban says: the real (being) Hungary … cough … As a tourist a week or two in Budapest – why not. But to open a store without shouting “Heil Fidesz” is deadly. Hungarian or not … or did I misunderstand something?
Wolfi have you seen a response to this story out of Germany https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/26/u-s-plans-upgraded-nukes-europe-00063675 as yet? As I recall from my NATO days some of these new bombs would be likely located at Büchel Air Base in southwestern Germany. The Russians suddenly are freaking out about this.
Istvan, a very interesting and almost disturbing article, thanks for this.
I haven’t seen anything on this in the European media yes, but I’ll keep looking.
Found it in local news!
https://www.rhein-zeitung.de/region/rheinland-pfalz_artikel,-sind-neue-atombomben-schon-in-buechel-wovon-ein-exprte-gerade-ausgeht-_arid,2446245.html
Some sources claim that the B61 bombs will come to Büchel in 2023, others say that because of the Ukraine war they may have already arrived.
My guess is Orban supports this since Hungary has a seat on NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group and Fidesz is not discussing it at all.
Orban is playing a dangerous game with Putin and double dealing constantly. On the blog for retired US military officers there has been a discussion that nuclear weapons could possibly be positioned in Finland if the country’s application to join NATO is approved, according to a report from a Finnish newspaper. There was also discussion of the Polish government discussions with the U.S. government about hosting U.S. nuclear weapons.
I am honestly hoping the Russian Black Sea Fleet has no tactical nuclear cruise missiles on its combat ships because they are being hit by Ukrainian missiles regularly now. I have to assume and hope the CIA is providing intel to the Ukrainians on that issue. The Russians are now also publicly discussing shooting down US National Security Agency spy satellites, that too could lead to WW3.
Today for the first time I saw a commercial on US TV explicitly against the USA providing military and economic aid to support Ukraine. It indicated the aid could lead to nuclear war with Russia showing a nuclear mushroom cloud.
It was sponsored by a Group called Citizen for Sanity associated with the America First Legal Foundation, which was founded by former Trump administration official Stephen Stephen Miller. The commercial was aired during the US baseball World Series.
So now I have Putin inspired TV commercials on my big screen TV right in my home, how delightful.
And of course “No Help!” would quickly lead to peace with Russians occupying Ukraine, maybe killing all the “Nazis” living there.
And after a while Putin would be ready to invade the next country …
But which real American cares?
Russia is so far away …
According to Putin’s last national address, the ideological aim of the war has changed from the political “de-Nazification” to the religious “de-Satanization”. Presumably with the full blessing of the Church.
The Russian opposition journal Riddle ran this statistically driven article on Russia’s attempt to mobilize more bodies for the Russian Army https://ridl.io/inglorious-mobilization/. This article came out on October 26th and a few days later Putin claimed all 300,000 of the needed soon to be combat troops had been mobilized, which would appear to be just one of Putin’s many lies.
But what seems not to be a lie is some of those poor bastards have already been sent to Kherson’s trenches. One retired US Army General is arguing that the Russians have loaded up Kherson with possibly 40,000 soldiers who are effectively trapped in that city with all escape routes across the river likely controlled by Putin’s security forces https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/10/29/russian-soldiers-ukraine-kherson-hertling-ndwknd-vpx.cnn . General Hertling actually presents a very optimistic perspective for those Russian troops which is mass surrender to the Ukrainians eventually. I am fearing a real blood bath for both the Russians and Ukrainians to take control of a largely destroyed city.
Putin seems to have copied Stalin’s tactic at Stalingrad where he ordered endless number of new Russian troops to be sent into Stalingrad who actually may have been better equipped than Putin is providing for his newly mobilized soldiers.
I periodically read about the Hungarian Army and I read this article https://honvedelem.hu/hirek/amerikai-elismeres-egy-magyar-fotisztnek.html which is about Hungarian Army Colonel Zsolt Molnár, now deputy commander of the MH 5th Infantry Brigade István Bocskai, who received the American Defense Meritorious Service Medal at the end of October in recognition of his work as the liaison to the organization responsible for force development of the US Army. The Colonel served in the USA between 2018 and 2022.
The Hungarian article indicates he was stationed near Norfolk Va, I suspect it was Fort Belvoir which houses many important things including: the United States Army Intelligence and Security Command, the United States Army Military Intelligence Readiness Command, the Missile Defense Agency, the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency.
Given the hostility of the Orban government to the USA and its pro-Russian stance I was surprised to even see this article effectively admitting to very high level direct cooperation between the US Army and the Hungarian Army.
OV’s own 1-Party-State foreign minister ‘Petike, a kakaska’ stated on a US TV-station [ONAN – One America News Network]:
“If Trump would have won the elections in 2020 November, I think that the war [Russia against Ukraine] would not have broken out.”
source: https://444.hu/2022/10/30/szijjarto-az-osszeeskuves-elmeleteket-terjeszto-amerikai-tevenek-ha-trump-nyert-volna-nem-tort-volna-ki-az-orosz-ukran-haboru [incl.kakaska’s own video on FB]
Who on our planet will take this ‘minister’ serious from now on?????
The people who have faith in Fidesz and the Trumpist Americans will take him seriously.
Talking about cockatoo 🙂 he is a Trumpist drone …
„Birds Aren’t Real is a satirical conspiracy theory which posits that birds are actually drones operated by the United States government to spy on American citizens. In 2018, journalist Rachel Roberts described Birds Aren’t Real as “a joke that thousands of people are in on.” “
It’s catching on 🙂
quite natural apparently … Brothers Grimm used to run under “fairy tales” … do we have to reevaluate that soon?
Totally OT:
Ferenc, you made me laugh!
One of the few really funny bible stories is the story of ONAN.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onan
While OAN is even more horrible than faux news.
Yes Trump himself believes there would had been no Russian invasion of Ukraine if he was allowed to be President. I believe it is illegal under US law to threaten the life of the former President so I will remain silent beyond pointing that out.
I will only say the Republican supporters of Trump in several US States are subverting early voting by sending armed right wing militia members to stand near ballot deposit boxes. Police in those states in some cases are themselves Trump supporters, but the existing laws in Texas, and Arizona allow for open carrying of weapons so these militias tactics are on going.
With the violent attack on the husband of the elected Speaker of the House things are deteriorating very fast in parts of my country.
How bad would it have to get, before necessary emergency-measures can be enforced?
Or would a constitutional division of the Federacy be more likely?
“Yes Trump himself believes…”
My question is then:
Does djT ‘imselluf believe that really
OR
does he ‘only’ say he believes that?
PS: I suspect the latest and he ‘only’ says it, to show to his Trumciples that ‘he’s different’ and therewith tries to bind hisciples stronger to him.
If things here in the USA were not crazy enough, they just got more insane. Sebastian Gorka Trump’s second most favorite Hungarian, Orban is number one I think, is today questioning the attack on Speaker Pelosi’s 82 year old husband that even been on Hir Tv in Hungary.
Gorka is wondering if Paul Pelosi was drunk at the time of the assault and “in a dispute with a male prostitute.”
According to team Gorka the whole story of Paul Pelosi being attacked by an insane follower of Trump may be fake. Gorka is after all a security expert and can figure out stuff those of without his amazing skills just can not. Igen, Gorka szar.
The problem for Gorka may be that the attacker is well known as a loonie on the internet, you can look up his crazy ideas.
That Elon Musk however did similar speculations is a new level of crazyness!
It will be interesting to see Musk’s reactions to other happenings. He seems really similar to Trump here:
Without thinking write a tweet that shows your feelings (and your ignorance) then maybe delete it again after you realised what’s going on.
The problem for them is that the internet never forgets. So we’ll have interesting times!
I prefer to regard Musk as a potential Trump 2.0, only much worse, should he decide to buy his way into the Republican party organization. Let’s hope some sane people in the US government take that into consideration.
Musk was spreading the same rumor on his freshly acquired Twitter before deleting it.
He is actually in fake Dracula’s fake castle of
Bran = Törcsvár = Tölzburg in Transylvania
for Halloween.
https://foter.ro/cikk/nem-akarmilyen-igenyeket-tamasztott-elon-musk-az-erdelyi-luxusbuli-megszervezesekor/
This is what likely to happen if somebody has too much money and/or power.
Q:”Did Dracula Ever Set Foot In Dracula’s Castle?”
A: No
https://www.rferl.org/a/1068701.html
In 2019, Musk also got away with calling the rescuers of the Thai children from the flooded cave a “pedo guy”.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50695593
He was not in Transylvania on Halloween. That story was debunked as false days ago.
“Many died. Some believed themselves to be victors. Others were taken prisoner.
The survivors settled beneath Chaillot, in an underground network of galleries.
Above ground, Paris, as most of the world, was uninhabitable, riddled with radioactivity.
The victors stood guard over an empire of rats. ”
La Jetée, 1962https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fU99W-ZrIHQ
Strange coincidence?
This dystopian French short movie La Jetée inspired another SF movie: Twelve Monkeys
And the premise of 12 monkeys is a deathly virus which kills billions of people …
As an old SF fan I of course was always fascinated by the idea of time travel – though it leads to logical paradoxes.