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The opposition went on with publishing their plans. These details are way too important not to report about, while their complete view will be needed to analyse the plans. At least the presentation in slices gives the opportunity to get into some of the news regularly, while most of the regime press is telling invented stories. Origo ►HU wrote already before the governmental program of the opposition was decided about that the opposition will abolish the 13th pension. Just because this is in the interest of their boss. Yesterday the opposition declared what they really want.
The 13th pension will remain, just as the full pension for women who worked for 40 years. This “gift” of Orbán is even poisoned, MP Lajos Korózs (MSZP) called the pension system Orbán reshaped even “scam of the century.” MP László Szakács (DK) highlighted that the last 12 years Orbán only thought about the pensioners only before elections took place. And that before the “panic distribution” at the end of last year 1.2 million pensioners got less than 130 000 Forint (350 €) a month. Compared to the Swiss model (raising pensions with one half inflation and the other half growth of nets wages) every pensioner has lost 1 200 000 Forint (3 250 €) during the last 10 years. Introducing the Swiss system is one of the core points.
To solve the problem that the pauperisation of retired Hungarians the plans are: The minimum pension, now 28 500 Ft (77 €) a month, the same as in 2010, shall be raised to half of the nets minimum wage (66 500 Ft as today.) Fractional years shall be included in the calculation of the pension, to mitigate the effects of unemployment. Also a flexible retirement shall be among the options for the citizen. The new pension system shall be relying again on 3 pillars, not on electoral promises. Every citizen will be able to know what pension he has build-up until now. Pensions must become predictable. Further the situation of those getting a disabled pension must be improved, Orbán made them paying taxes over their pension and qualified this a work income (great for the unemployed statistics of course.) So far the plans for pensioners ►HU.
For the young people has been made a program as well: About education ►HU. Orbán’s education system would be demolished and many aspects of the pre-FIDESZ education system restored. Ágnes Kunhalmi (MSZP) said: “The biggest problem with FIDESZ’s education policy is the lack of modernisation. The adaptability of Hungarian education has not developed, but has regressed.”
The opposition wants to pay teachers adequately, not only to make the profession more attractive. The opposition remembered that the teaching staff is too old, and too many are leaving profession. The administrative workload that has been given to teachers through the nationalisation of schools by Orbán must be reduced again.
MP Koloman Brenner (Jobbik) wants foreign language education on all levels. Also in vocational training an adequate level of foreign language knowledge will be conveyed, while on graduation at least a secondary language exam shall be passed. The universities need to be re-nationalised. Brenner called university autonomy and the goal of getting as many graduates as possible to be of paramount importance. The 1st degree will be for free for everybody.
The compulsory school age will be raised back again (Orbán lowered it,) and the choice of textbooks will be re-introduced. “Our goal is to build a high-quality education and training system in Hungary that will make it possible for all children to succeed during adult life and to find their place on the labour market,” said Endre Tóth (Momentum.) Implementation of modern pedagogical practices, critical thinking, a culture of discussion and teamwork, and the development of financial knowledge and digital skills are key points to him.
Maybe he hopes to steal Brussel's cruiser and head out for Atlantis.
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Who knows what kind of economic/ financial situation the opposition will inherit if they win the election, it’s probably better not to promise too much at the moment in terms of spending, but the focus on education (raising compulsory school age) and pensioners’s income seems reasonable. Healthcare definitely has to be a priority as well…
At least based on this article https://hang.hu/belfold/ellenzeki-osszefogas-a-nyugdijasokrol-aki-ledolgozott-egy-eletet-az-idoskoraban-nem-nyomoroghat-135272 referenced in the post there is not yet a “published” joint opposition document on the so called 13th month pension. There were oral statements made at the press conference held today. Speaking on the pension issue only were representatives of DK, and MSZP. I watched the video of the press conference and did not see any link to a written document that was published even outlining what opposition legislation for the 13th month pension would look like. What was most interesting about these statements was what was left unstated, how the increase in pensions would be paid for.
As far as I can tell the outline of the plan for the increase in pension payments seems to depend on an analysis of its positive benefits in GDP increases that would generate tax revenue that the Fidesz plan for the 13th month pension proposal also relies on. Orban stated in August on his radio show “That the economy is booming, so it will be possible to pay a pension premium, the amount of which depends on the rate of economic growth.” It is true that part of Marki-Zay’s critique of the 13th month pension payments back in 2019 in his discussion with Olga Kálmán that was included in one of her books did relate to the basic idea that pension increases could generate enough money through GDP growth to cover the costs of the increase without increasing national debt.
Now this issue flies over the heads of many people without question, but the opposition really as far as I can tell produced no statement from Marki-Zay indicating he fully endorses the 13th month pension proposal as outlined at the press conference. He has clearly said he recognizes the terrible situation of pensioners. The comments at the press conference by Lajos Korózs from the MZP particularly this one “Retirement society is not a burden but a value to society,” would without question be endorsed by Marki-Zay . But Lajos Korózs really did not discuss how it would be paid for and Marki-Zay had a problem with that in the past.
I think Fidesz propagandists used a completely economically appropriate statement made by Mark-Zay in the past to claim he is outright opposed to the 13th month pension payments for ever. I think his critique was based on the dishonestly of the idea that increased pensions can pay for themselves with a trickle down effect of economic growth. In general in every society those increases do not pay for themselves, they do add on to the national debt. So the question becomes does that national debt increase become a huge problem or can it be absorbed. When ever the IMF becomes involved in an economic bail out of a nation state it looks at past increases in pension payments and often pushes countries to back off on those increases.
I do not like the Hungarian opposition parties presenting plans at press conferences without an underlying written documentation going into at least some detail. The Democrats here in the USA did this repeatedly with what was called the Build Back Better legislation, and it back fired as more and more details of the massive legislative bill began to be analyzed. The actual bill as passed in the US House is 2,465 pages long and it also required extensive changes to what is called Federal administrative law in order for it to be implemented. US Senator Joe Manchin a Democrat blocked the bill in the Senate once more and more of the details of the bill were looked at, in many respects Manchin shares some economic thinking actually with Mark-Zay in terms of debt and taxation effects on the economy.
True, the announcements of the program details are not available in written form yet. But these are the agreements the parties made, so it is not just a few politicians making statements. The ongoing gatherings involve the candidate PM as well, so it is nothing he would not have taken place in. Reality is that he needs the parties as the parties need him. It is not Orbán’s one-man-show, don’t forget that! A statement from 2019 can be voted out in 2022 or even corrected by thinking over the topic again.
Financing of pensions in Hungary is at this moment exclusively based on an apportionment procedure, the working population of today pays for the pensioners of today. If wages for example grow with 10 % the contributions also grow with 10 %. Easy to let pensions grow with 10 % as well. It is difficult to do so beyond the state pension, the part which will be based on savings again. However, in most years the savings grow faster than the wages. Seen the fact that pensioners are practically all not saving, but spending (look at the monthly amount a pension is) it is logical that nearly everything will return into the GDP. But there is a problem indeed, you didn’t mention: The retired population is growing and the working population is declining – and emigrating. This will result in higher contributions by time.
The IMF can’t tell a country a lot about contribution based social systems, it is done where a the state gives as social benefits completely or as addition. Since Orbán abolished the employers contributions (employers pay now “social tax,” which is used where needed in the budget and no longer allocated for pensions (or health care.) Even the employers’ contributions are no longer defined as being for health care and pension, it is just a contribution for social security. So the Hungarian system is actually a benefit system, no insurance system. I hope this will be changed as well.
But you shouldn’t expect that the IMF will be needed. Yes, Orbán is spending every Forint he has in his hands, but still the foreign production is working well, there is no problem with getting taxes, there is a problem how it is spent right now. Between 20 and 30 % of state investments is ending in the pockets of the ruling elite. If that swamp is dried there is enough liquidity to pay higher pensions. And we don’t live in 2008, the financing systems are stable, it is easy to get credits for Hungary, regardless who will be PM.
“I do not like the Hungarian opposition parties presenting plans at press conferences without an underlying written documentation going into at least some detail.”
I agree that it would be better to have more concrete information from the opposition, but the lack of transparency about the real economic situation in Hungary makes it quite difficult to come up with specific, well-costed proposals…
Of course it’s difficult for the opposition to fight against Orbán’s promises – if Hungarians don’t wonder how he will finance all that sh*t that he offers.
However everybody with a brain should realize how idiotic the Fidesz gifts are – like those 5000 HUF for every pensioner when at the same time prices for basic food are exploding.
Looking at all this from outside one might think it would be best if O1G wins again – and then look at the situation in 4 years when the consequences of the Fidesz olitics will be obvious – especially if the EU really stops the money flow.
But most Hungarians would suffer even more than they do now.
Some interesting views from outside:
How Trump supports O1G (sorry, only in German):
https://kurier.at/politik/ausland/von-allen-respektiert-trump-unterstuetzt-orban-vor-ungarn-wahlen/401860535?
Here in English:
https://kafkadesk.org/2022/01/04/donald-trump-endorses-pm-orban-for-reelection/
Kafkadesk is very good and critical reporter on what’s going on in the V4 countries. I really recommend their daily news.
Median Equalized Household Income 2020 list examples, in Euro rounded:
Austria 26 600
EU avr, 18 000(p)
CzechR 10 600
Latvia 8 800
Slovakia 8 700
Poland 8 040
Hungary 7 100
Romania 4 300
https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/submitViewTableAction.do