Well I don’t know if Kyiv is going to fall tomorrow, but it is obvious there is a lack of…
How Elections Work
“Nobody said it would be easy” one could quote Péter Márki-Zay ►HU, who announced to cancel his appearances because he has been tested positively on the corona virus. He said that he is lucky having only very light symptoms and he thanks that to his 3 doses of vaccine.
Yesterday’s post caused reactions on the way the EP elects its presidency and the propaganda-lie why Lívia Járóka withdrew after her disastrous results. So I go into the depths how voting in Hungary functions (not easy) and what the united opposition Unity for Hungary means in the light of the real results of the 2018 elections when FIDESZ got the 2nd most votes ever.
We often see the polls where a percentage is assigned to a party. This is for a part useful only. Worst example is that in 2014 FIDESZ got a 2/3 majority in parliament with only 44 % of the votes. The Hungarian parliament has 199 seats, whereof 93 are distributed according to party lists. The majority of 106 seats are allocated according to the results in districts. Here the plurality of votes determines the result, in opposite to the rules valid until 2010, when those districts without a candidate reaching a majority went into a runoff. There are no nation-wide polls for the 106 districts.
In the year 2018 FIDESZ won 91 districts, the opposition got 15 district seats only. This while FIDESZ candidates got the majority of votes in 47 districts only. Although the party is so proud of a 2/3 majority not a single candidate got that share of votes in his district. Only 5 candidates got more than 60 % in their district, while György Hubay was elected with meagre 38.1 % of the votes in his district Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén 2. The average of the district votes remained below 50 %, no matter whether as calculated on the average of number of districts, or average of the casted votes. This differs, because of the gerrymandering and creating traditional FIDESZ districts smaller than traditional opposition districts. The in 2018 divided opposition won 15 districts, while in 34 more districts the candidates of the united opposition together got more votes than the FIDESZ candidates. In 10 districts the FIDESZ candidate got no majority, but the plurality over the candidates of the united opposition. Here a closer look is needed. 7 of them must be assigned to FIDESZ, since the plurality was reached against a high number of votes for parties and independents that can not be regarded as part of Unity for Hungary. In 3 districts FIDESZ would have lost regarding the details. In Veszprém 1 independent Zoltán Kész won 31.39 %, he defeated the FIDESZ candidate in a by-election in 2015, but was not re-elected in 2018 against FIDESZ and the opposition parties. As we know from the 2015 by-election his voters are definitely voting against FIDESZ, but Kész did not run in the primaries of 2021. However, he is working together with Péter Márki-Zay, he joint MZP’s visit to Poland last December. In Pest 3 and Budapest 13 the candidates of Együtt got so many votes that they would have made the difference between FIDESZ and Unity for Hungary, in the latter Zoltán Vajda got only 1083 votes less than the FIDESZ candidate, who was elected with 41.91 % of the votes only. Vajda as winner of the primaries runs for Unity for Hungary in this district now. Also the 2018 winners of Budapest 17, Dr. Szabolcs Szabó, today the only MP of Együtt, and Dr. Tamás Mellár, independent from district Baranya 1, are now running for Unity for Hungary ►HU. So they all can be added-up.
So with the votes of 2018 Unity for Hungary including the votes for now dissolved Együtt and independent anti-FIDESZ candidates would have won 52 districts, FIDESZ 54 districts. This compared to 91 FIDESZ districts when the state party stood against several opposition candidates shows the difference Unity for Hungary makes. Not only a few districts FIDESZ won in tight races with just a few hundred votes, so the number of districts for Unity for Hungary could improve.
The national lists, where Unity for Hungary and FIDESZ are polled to be close right now regularly with a small advantage for the opposition, know some Hungarian specials. To begin with is that a list doesn’t get in parliament, if the threshold of 5 % for a single party is not reached. For lists with 2 parties the threshold is 10 %, for 3 and more parties 15 %. This means that FIDESZ with its appendix KDNP needs 10 %, the 6 parties of Unity for Hungary need 15 %. Hungarians without Hungarian address may vote unlimited for the party list, even if they never set a foot on Hungarian ground. Voting for a candidate needs having an address registered in that district. Here we face the problem that the regime recently allowed to register an address without living there, before this has been an administrative offence. The voting from abroad without address is made very easy, from a part of these foreign based voters only an email address is known! Orbán is funding the Hungarian communities abroad extremely well and so it is no surprise that these votes are at extreme rates in favour of the state party. Of course it is impossible to know to which extent these votes are legal, since they are beyond control. And there is another important difference to democratic countries, the winner from the district transfers the number of votes he got more than the 2nd placed to his party list, in FIDESZ talk these are “lost votes.” Of course this is getting less important as soon as the candidates receive in average no huge differences from one another. The 2018 results were that the Unity for Hungary parties got 50 seats from the party lists ►HU.
Together with the 52 seats from the districts this results in a very small majority of 102 seats for Unity for Hungary.
Of course these were the results of 2018 and can only serve as an example for 2022. The following facts are to be considered: 2 tiny parties are getting more votes, these are the 2-tailed dog party and the extremists that spit away from Jobbik under the name Mi Házank. The dog party will harm Unity for Hungary only, but makes no chances to get into parliament. The extreme right is now pushing against the pandemic rules in Hungary ►HU to get into parliament and so could harm with these messages both FIDESZ and Jobbik. Until now it seems neither can get into parliament, but we have to take into account that FIDESZ has kind of a religious status among its supporters, which includes the doctrine of infallibility of Orbán, so changing voters away from FIDESZ is very difficult. On the other side there was a high number non-voters that before Unity for Hungary became reality declared to abstain again from voting with a divided opposition. Another open question is the possible damage the king of porn György Gattyán could mean (I wrote about). The reservoir of non-voters is huge and of course not homogeneous. At this point we know that Unity for Hungary makes a chance, but there is neither a warranty for the votes, nor for a democratic count ►EN.
Voila, the “Council of Judges” (OBT) has already submitted to Orban's "reorganization" by the afternoon. https://obt-jud.hu/sites/default/files/ulesek/Osszefoglalo_2024.11.20.pdf
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Fidesz is leading by 4% points in the last IDEA poll. On Vox Populi blog (which aggregates the results of various pollsters and is an opposition-leaning but very matter of fact blog) it is estimated that Fidesz currently leads by 3-5% points over the united opposition.
The trend is roughly similar to the trend we saw in 2018, that is that as the election date approached the opposition lost its relative advantage and Fidesz strengthened its position.
With the “csirkefarhát” stunt which is by far the most talked about political issue of the last many weeks Orban scored again big time, and his decision is in line with the grand narrative, that “I will protect you and the leftists will only increase prices and take away your pension”. Orban has been very consistent with his narrative and people just like that.
Thus we should hold our expectations low for the opposition. Hungary is an autocracy and and the incumbent autocrat has all the resources to “win” in a system entirely created by the incumbent. Orban had absolutely free reign in setting the details of the system, it’s unlikely he will allow the opposition to take power away from his hands.
Two interesting and staggering points from the trenches of the Fudan University/unemployment benefit signature collecting efforts (200,000 signatures were needed so that a referendum could be held on the questions.)
Astonishingly, people under the age of 45 were less than 15% of those signing up for the referendum and there were lots of people in their 80s and even many in their 90s.
Young (middle aged) people simply don’t seem to care about politics at all even if the issue should concern them on paper. But they will not stop, don’t understand the issue, don’t care and so on. We had maybe one out of 15 on one sheet who was under 40 and perhaps 3-4 in their twenties during the whole day.
Although both issues the university and the benefit concern young and active-age people I would say that 70-80% of the signatories were pensioners. They are the only active portion of the society.
However, pensioners are the ones who are the most grateful for their fixed energy prices, fixed price of wheat, sugar etc. They just like it that they will not end up like their parents in the early 90’s. Orban takes care of them.
Especially in rural places (where there was very scant collection of the signatures) Fidesz’ advantage is stunning and should not be underestimated. I think the rural-Budapest divide will be bigger than ever and we will see astonishing, almost unbeliavable Fidesz lead in rural regions.
So all in all, I would be very cautious. Fidesz is popular and lots of apolitical, non-political people will support Orban, the devil they know who provides them with goodies.
Marty, you forgot to mention the most important part of the IDEA poll: Among all voters FIDESZ leads with 2 %, but there are remarkable 8 % saying that they know how to vote, but don’t want to answer! In Hungary nobody needs to be afraid to tell a stranger that he votes for the state party! The same is true for those who are afraid to sign for the referendum. Being afraid is not the same as not caring! This is especially more valid in rural Hungary!
And cheaper chicken carcasses are not really an argument for undecided voters. In fact this is a good argument against Orbán! That the true believing sheep are happy is true, but they are happy with everything the dictator does. And if you compare to 2018 you shouldn’t forget that today’s Unity for Hungary would have won. No reason not to try harder, but at the same moment no reason for defeatism.
You should ask what changed since 2018?
For the “average people” there are more jobs and loans and are in a somewhat better situation.
Not me (I think the non-Fidesz “elite” suffered, our salaries have been stagnating for long while inflation has been sky high especially re real estate), but the working class, blue collar people are better off in many ways.
Yes, they would be even better off living in Slvakia or Romania, but they still feel pretty much OK and of course have no idea how these countries even Croatia, Poland etc. took over Hungary.
The amount of mortgage loans they took on was at record levels in 2021 and the job market is hot for the working class people.
Also hot for the young people too which is one of the reasons why they are apolitical is that they feel fine, they can get a job and as long as they don’t plan to buy real estate (start a family) they are generally feel OK and can consume, they feel in demand which is true as the population is steadily decreasing every year buy some 50,000 people (and the working age population by more even, in percetnage).
Of course a lot of things changed for the worse, but my question applies to the masses, for the working class folks?
For them the situation isn’t much worse (actually somewhat better) so I would not expect much improvement for the opposition.
More improvement in the compartmentalized Budapest area, and perhaps worse showing in villages.
But the Two-tailed Dog Party and Mi Hazánk will take away probably more votes from the opposition that minor parties took away in 2018.
So all in all I would say the opposition can probably repeat its results but you can’t just add the percentages of the individual party figures of 2018 because many Jobbik voters in rural places became Fidesz voters and in Budapest the extra opposition voters don’t result in the same amount of extra spots since the first past the post system doesn’t let that extra voter base spill over.
The only silver lining is as someone claimed and I agree that the opposition can only win if everybody thinks it will lose – otherwise Orban would rearrange the election rules even during the last days to make it impossible.
More jobs? What is the moon you live behind? Selection of job today is only possible in a few industries and far from everywhere in the country. Loans are easier, but only in special cases. And there they are needed and not wanted. No, your average Joe is way worse off. And please, even if every price would have been frozen on the level of last October the prices would remain too high compared to the nets income. If you don’t take the true believing sheep as standard there is not a single Hungarian thinking cheaper chicken carcasses would be useful. It is ridiculed among real people. I already quoted one who wanted cheaper wine. The least understands that the opposition’s 5 % VAT would help much more. The people generally understand that Orbán keeps the cake, while they get some crumbs. They are unhappy and afraid. As I said, if the results of 2018 can be repeated Orbán will lose. Jobbik voters don’t switch to FIDESZ, since the hate is more on Orbán than on all left wing politicians together. He is and always was the traitor in their eyes. So stay real and don’t invent Hungarian that don’t exist.
Marty, I’m still hopeful!
the “csirkefarhát” stunt which is by far the most talked about political issue I have to correct you:
It’s the most laughed about point and for some people the most crazy at least when I ask my wife or our neighbours.
Do you really believe that the majority of Hungarians is really that stupid that they don’t realize that they have to pay for this, with higher prices else where and even higher taxes.
PS:
Most of or neighbours are pensioners just like us and have enough troubles making ends meet. So being forced to eat unhealthy to save money …
The good news:
Fidessz seems to be really afraid of losing the elections so they’re bringing up even crazier ideas. And even for the biggest O1G-fan one day enough will be enough!
Like I said, don’t hold your breath. Many people feel forgotten and these price fixings remind them that there is a good king watching over them who protects them.
For many people that is very comforting and are terrified of the “expert-using, rationa, technocartic, cold liberals”.
Hopefully the results will be close enough (however in that case the opposition might just fall apart, as they have no plan-B for losing, and Marki-Zay will have no backing of his own inside the Parliament which is of course anyway likely, this is just the nature of an autocracy).
The opposition will improve on 2018 but it will be a long process until they can take over the leadership.
Marty, from own experience I can tell you that my wife, her family and her neighbours don’t want a “king” – they had enough of Rakosi, Kadar etc and O1G is taking Hungary back to those times.
But of course I don’t know whether there are enough people thinking like this – if not we’ll have to consider moving 100% of our time to Germany and the young ones will start looking for jobs outside Hungary.
Do Hungarians really want a situation like in Serbia and Romania? The EU might throw them all out, especially if they won’t help in the conflict with Russia.
Interesting times ahead!
Well there will of course be many disagreements with your post Marty which is normal in such a high stakes situation as Hungary is in with this election. But I am glad to see you posting again on this site, I always read your comments carefully. I do think there is some under estimation of what an Orban victory could mean for the longer term prospects of anything that could be called Hungarian democracy. I think Eva was basically correct when she said before she died it was a last chance for Hungarian democracy. I do think anytime the possibility of an Orban victory is raised by someone like yourself who has stated adamantly many times that you do not support Fidesz, then it needs to be framed as a potential disaster for Hungary.
That comment by Eva of course I think assumed Orban having a relatively long life and retaining total control over Fidesz as political operation controlling and consolidating the Mafia State. If something was to happen to Orban, the thieves will likely fall out. Orban is without question overweight even on a age adjusted basis and being a crook leading a merry band of other crooks is stressful because one always has to watch for hátul kést as my grandfather always said.
Hungary is the most obese nation in all of Europe. Globally, it’s ranked fourth behind only the United States, Mexico and England. Even more frightening is the fact that the rate of obesity has been increasing steadily in the past years in Hungary. In 2010, only about 28.5% of the adult population in Hungary was obese. By 2017, the rate had increased to more than 30%, worse still obesity rates (9.8%) were higher among the Hungarian rural population than the urban population (7%). The USA is so full of Orban like people in physical stature that many young people simply can’t pass the current Army Combat Fitness Test and are washed out of the service. A 50 minute test I just managed to pass not long ago in my 70s, which is a sad commentary on our situation here in the USA.
Marty always pledges for defeatism. Yes, the people he writes about exist, just that they are not typical. Lucky enough he predicts everything wrong. This gives me hope!
I for my part agree for 100 % with Éva that these elections are our last chance. This has already a financial reason. The EU will stop funding soon, in December the ECJ got the analysis, whether this would be legal or not – it would. The trial will find an end soon and the commission is obliged to act. So enormous amounts will be lost, while the most expensive parts of the regime still need funding. There is no way to stop funding oligarchs or the propaganda machine, these are the cornerstones of the regime. So every obstacle must be eliminated. We will see that the conflict with the EU will radicalise fast, perhaps Orbán will adopt the Polish idea of withholding EU contributions in exchange of lost funding. Saves some money, at least for a short time. The end will be that Orbán will make us leaving the EU and perhaps even NATO. And this will have as well as result that Orbán doesn’t care any more about our human rights. Hungary will degenerate in the direction of Belarus. I myself am prepared to leave the country in case we won’t see MZP winning, because in that case I see no hope any more and don’t want to spend my last days in a country I can’t post this comment under my full name.
Of course you are right that FIDESZ stands and falls with Orbán. There is neither a crown prince nor just a 2nd really popular man inside the party. Lázár was degraded from the 2nd man in charge to a backbencher, when he became too powerful. The people I know never allowing a bad word about Orbán had no high opinion of Lázár, one even said that someone really needs to tell Orbán how corrupt Lázár is (don’t laugh, this really happened.) Since 2 ministers share the power in the Várszínház, just to avoid too much power in a single position. Orbán always relies on one man, who is replaced some times later. A very traditional way to stay alone at the top. To be honest, Orbán doesn’t care about his health, just he gets the best care money can buy. I would say Trump is in a comparable situation, just that he is 17 years older than Orbán. I just can’t wait nature does that job!
I agree Marty is a notorious pessimist. On the other hand, we have to admit that the Viktor is a specialist in manipulating elections by all kind of dirty tricks as you wrote in your article today. I was really almost feeling back in time for four years with all these little reminders of how unfair this system is. (And I was so terrible drunk from frustration that election night.). Only today I read about a half-hearted letter of a few EP politicians for better control over the elections. They fucking know these unfair elections for many years now, so why start to propose, not even prepare better control only now?
I think Marty is not right that people feel they live better.
https://telex.hu/belfold/2022/01/18/a-fidesz-szavazok-szerint-a-kormany-eredmenyei-ellensulyozzak-a-korrupciot
They are afraid of rising prices, think their wages are too low. And guess what the Viktor is playing. Just these two top positioned worries. And people who would never even think of buying an appartment or house see their chance now with the “family politics” of the regime.
I agree that this is the last chance of getting a democracy back with elections. After the elections the whole masquerade of the gifts will break together. The opposition if they win and follow their strategy of punishing the corrupt regime have a better chance to survive than the Viktor, who will not be able to explain the disaster.
https://hang.hu/belfold/mzp-kampanynyito-interju-135944
Maybe then there will be enough people on the street for long enough to make a difference.
I am more optimistic in the sense that even if the opposition loses now they may have a chance later. The reason is that the Hungarian economy is in a difficult situation (record government debt and budget deficit, for many month negative trade balance, high inflaction but also gigantic indebtedness so rate increase will hurt a lot of interests etc.). Balancing that will surely cause conflicts.
However, I am more pessimistic in the sense that Fidesz can I think survive the loss of Orban just like the system survived the leaving of major figures such as Mugabe, do Santos, or Nazarbayev most recently. These ruling parties all succeeded to find a successor and achieve a transition. Perhaps not as smooth as one hoped, but these systems are rock solid. Fidesz is at this level of being the entrenched ruling party, the alter ego of the state itself.
Orban’s successor may not be someone who is a household name, may not be as powerful as Orban is (whose family and friends are all over the state, as judges, prosecutors, attorneys etc.) but can easily prove himself to be a shrewd operator if chosen smartly (remember how Putin was a nobody when chose and he really outgrew his mediocre backgrounds).
Also, as I said I spent many hours (on several days) collecting signatures (but also participated in many previous efforts) so my hunch is based on that experience.
Pensioners came from all over Hungary even as far as Kecsekemét and Cegléd and Székesfehérvér to our stand to sign because they could not find an place in their town (all of these towns are major or significant in Hungary). As I understand it DK, MSZP and Jobbik collected very few signatures, they did not want to help MZP. Just to stop youngsters, even middle-aged people on the street was almost impossible. The ignorance of politics by the younger generation is really staggering.
Anyhow, I am working on changing the system but the key is the rural world, and there I think Fidesz has very strong positions.
No! This is the last chance of the opposition. As you might remember before every election rules have been tightened. The 6 parties now for example can’t run on 2 lists as originally planned to make it more favourable to more left and more right leaning voters, but only on a single list. Or the fictive addresses that are allowed now to move voters around into districts that are in vain. As soon as Orbán is not longer getting money from the EU he will more brutally change rules, since there is no mean of pressure any more.
And FIDESZ would definitely collapse without Orbán. At least today. Do Santos and Nazarbayev have built-up a crown prince carefully, they determined up to the least detail what has to happen and directed from the beyond. The same did Franco, with the difference that he stayed until his death. Only that the crown prince turned at a moment against Nazarbayev, something that happened to Mugabe as well, just that he was putsched away while still in office. Orbán is afraid exactly of these things. So he doesn’t allow powerful people next to him. Perhaps he could decide to retire some day, but there are absolute no preparations yet, the opposite is true!
That there were no places where to sign in Kecskemét or Székesfehérvár is not true, I myself linked here a list where it was possible. I can’t rule out that people wanted to sign during a trip to Budapest, just to be sure that they weren’t seen signing and could do anonymously! Here again we see the same effect why in the poll you linked 8 % say that they already decided how to vote, but are afraid to tell on which party. I myself signed at a stand of LMP, not because I wanted, but because it was the 1st possibility. Why MSZP shouldn’t help Karácsony (the referendum was asked for by him, not by Márki-Zay!) is beyond my understanding. Even the dogs helped!
And of course against rural Hungary the elections can’t be won. Just you forgot that already in 2018 the candidates of what is today Unity for Hungary already got more votes than FIDESZ in 52 of the 106 districts! Besides in all 18 districts in Budapest also in 34 rural districts. The number of 52 could be increased to about 60 with only a few hundred votes more, especially the 7 districts where FIDESZ won hardly a plurality over Unity. You mustn’t regard winning a district as being 100 % pro-FIDESZ. As I wrote, even 38.1 % have been enough to win – that can’t be regarded as extremely pro-FIDESZ.
Well this statement Marty “I am more optimistic in the sense that even if the opposition loses now they may have a chance later.” Given the geo-political situation in Central Europe and the evolution of the Mafia State in Hungary I doubt there will be a chance later as Eva seemed to be arguing. I am afraid later in Hungary assuming Orban lives a reasonably long life, elections will become even more rigged, and a crack down on democratic rights in Hungary will creep forward with an ever greater authoritarian state consolidated.
Up to now the argument against the implementation of a full authoritarian state in Hungary has been the EU and the many benefits it brings to Hungary and cash to Orban’s oligarchs via corruption. It is obvious that Putin has decided the situation in Central Europe can not remain the way it is. Because it undermines his own fully consolidated Mafia State in Russia. It beckons to young Russians for a sense of choice and freedom since there are Russian speakers in the Ukraine that want to drink from that fountain. Ultimately Putin found the Russian opposition had to be crushed using the old Stalinist methods Putin learned in the KGB made formally legal ( https://www.ridl.io/en/the-worst-year-in-the-history-of-post-soviet-russia/ for a very good description of the process ).
Orban is casting his lot with Putin cautiously and very slowly. I am sure Orban would like for Putin to not carry out a full scale invasion or even a partial military invasion of Ukraine. But Orban also knows talking will not contain Putin. NATO, the USA, and the EU have already decided not to defend the aspirations of many Ukrainians with any direct military support and they already know that the Russian Federation has stockpiled cash to withstand any economic actions for a good while.
I am personally disgusted by many of my fellow retired US military officers who are totally arguing that we have given Ukraine the arms to defend itself and they must do the best they can bloodying Russians to make them stop their onslaught including by protracted warfare.
Currently there are members of US Army from Florida National Guard has members currently deployed to Ukraine in this rotating advise-and-assist capacity that has been admitted to by the US Department of Defense. US Army Special Operations Command Europe plays a large role in the development of Ukrainian Special Operations Forces through regular validation training exercises,” and this was admitted publicly by Lieutenant Colonel Anton Semelroth, a US DOD spokesman, he also said their number is kept secret “due to operational security.” I have no doubt there are elements of the CIA and NSA in the Ukraine too.
There is probably little doubt there are also Polish advisers in the Ukraine right now and possibly other NATO nations have some presence on the ground. Orban knows all of this and in Hungary its basically illegal for any of even the independent media to discuss this. Orban is walking a tightrope between Putin and NATO right now. The reason is he wants to keep his options open in order to consolidate his dictatorship in order to avoid giving any new Hungarian opposition any chance at removing him from power and potentially charging him criminally for his stealing from the people of Hungary. Orban’s very survival is at stake in that sense.
Hi Marty, somehow, I am glad you are back. In your posts today, you only mention things that the fans of the Viktor would see positive.
This extended Christmas gift season also could be seen as a defeat, and is by many people. If you have to fixate the price of csirkefarhát you have lost. Not many people miss this point of view, and are suspicious.
Where you are right, I think, is the amazing disinterest in politics of the young people. They see things happening without any engagement and interest in the future for them or their children. Here the propaganda and money wave are working perfect. No taxes when you are under 25, cheap loans when you pop out children, a big car for four children. And they don´t realize the education for their children is just being destroyed, it will just be enough to be able to work in factories from the big multinationals, and not even that anymore if the stupid work is rationalized away. These poor families are in a catch 22 situation, but don´t realize it yet. The Viktor gives you a cheap loan to buy an over expensive house, because you “intend” (just think of this insanity) to have children. Then if this doesn´t work within a certain timeframe you are lost. You will land in Kassler´s fertilization program before you know it, afraid to have to pay back with interest. Many young people fall for this, and not only stupid ones. The run on houses shortly before the elections is amazing. The real poor are bought by krumpli, free beer and fire wood on the 3rd of April.
Let´s not lose hope.
1) The thing with young people is that as long as they don’t start families they are “very well off”, at least compared to say 20 or 30 years ago. There is a huge demand for their work, as there are indeed jobs available to them which was not the case at all for young people 20 or 30 years ago. These jobs available for them are “very OK” as long as these kids live at home or with each other renting together. But it is true that they can very easily get a job and so they can consume and so they don’t have to care about anything else.
2) The political discourse also changed. Not only political event were events, but thinking about politics itself was an event. I sat down in the summer with my grandparents right at noon, my grandmother served the lunch right when my grandad swicthed on the News at Noon (Déli Krónika) at 1200. Every day, that’s how they lived. Families sat down together at 1930 to watch the evening news on state TV. 800,000 copies of Népszabadság (one of at least 3 national political dailies) were read in the 1980’s all with the daily routine of reading it. Now, there are a million different sources, people have different experiences, no trust in the media, and politics is not an “event” any more. These kids just did not learn how to approach news as such, how to treat politics. The last generation that properly learnt that was the one which came of age around 1990. But those who grew into the internet age, simply have no clue about the importance of politics or current affairs, they are kinda clueless and focused only on consumption (which is what using Instagram or various apps essentially is). And of course the system wants them to remain like that. One they get around 30s this changes however then comes the problem especially for men to be able to earn enough and be able to finance a family. Men are terrified of status loss so they avoid anything risky like politics. Women (not necessarily young ones) are much more active in politics in the lower levels. Middle aged men who thing about politics and have opinions shun politics because they are terrified of becoming “losers” if associated with the opposition or simply are afraid of losing their jobs or business. Only single people and elderly and a few exceptional youngsters are in politics. There are essentially no middle aged men with families (quite a lot of gays though, Orban’s anti-gay politics really cause a lot of gays to engage in some kind of political activity).
So all in all I am not pessimistic, just realistic. But we should keep in mind that Hungary is an autocracy, even if (so far) less bloody than Kazahstan or Russia.
To your point 1, about finding work, true for big cities, and as you write, enough to have some fun, but not to start a household, let alone being able to buy an appartment or house. To get a “chance” they have to find a partner, marry with the intention to get children and start to reproduce. Kids from families with money are less in trouble here.
To point 2: I have been mad at two of my own children about this disinterest in society and politics as they were younger. On the other hand, they were and are well aware of injustice happening in their environment like school class or sport clubs or other cultural activities they took part in. Now they are working, and it seems that woke up the interest in politics, discrimination etc. They live in countries where it is possible to express your opinion. And that may be a big factor, people in Hungary already grow up being afraid for negative consequences for themselves or their family when expressing their honest opinion. And then it is better to talk about other topics. Here I agree with you.
There are only very few polls concerning just young voters. As far we know they are scared away from politics, but as long as they want to vote they are much more attracted by the opposition. I remember a poll that resulted in 44 % : 22 % against FIDESZ, a ratio which also tells about the huge amount of non-voters. But this seems to be very Hungarian, looking how active young people are in the rest of Europe it is very different.
There may not be sufficient numbers about young people. I know for sure from 7 people that they had to make a picture of their ballot to show to their employer in the elections of 2018. 2 persons I know lost their job because they refused. These stories go around. Things like this, the pressure of the regime, may also explain the big group of non-voters. The first elections my children were allowed to take part in I had to kind of force them to inform themselves and we went with the whole family to the voting office like it was a sacred happening. Looking back, I wonder why I took it so seriously, but all are using their voting rights now, although when I know that tomorrow is election day where they live, I cannot stop myself to remind them (:
Of course I know as well that taking photos is besides chain voting a very popular cheating method. Just another reason the OSCE should employ a full scale mission instead of the usual limited mission that takes places in democracies. I quoted and linked both an open letter of 20 Hungarian organisations and of MEPs to do so. All this is not encouraging the Hungarian youth to vote, let alone to vote against the regime.
Off topic but pretty important for Hungary’s foreign policy perspectives. Late yesterday east coast time in the USA President Biden held a two hour press conference covering domestic and international topics. One of the issues that made the news globally and in Hungary were the President’s comments on Ukraine. Essentially he said he believed Putin was going to order an invasion of Ukraine fairly soon, based on what intel he never said. This issue was covered extensively in the US media with articles like these https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/19/biden-ukraine-russia-527440 , https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/19/us/politics/biden-putin-russia-ukraine.html, and on and on.
This article in Margay Nemzet basically argued that there was no evidence in the Ukraine of even a border incursion in the days to come https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2022/01/a-frontvonalon-elo-ukranok-nem-szamitanak-moszkva-tamadasara. However in the last 24 hours via chatter on military related blogs I became aware that President Biden spent 40 minutes last Thursday (Jan 13) on the phone briefing leaders of the Bucharest Nine group — Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia — U.S. allies on NATO’s eastern flank about his discussions with Putin. According to the comments I read overall these NATO members are deeply concerned that if there is any invasion that by Russian forces at all that the US will be immediately ready to move up our NATO forces from bases in Germany to protect them. Hungary does not want that, they want more weapons, I do not know if Orban was on that call, but I suspect he was.
I have no idea what the US National Security Council and the CIA told Biden that caused him to make these comments nor did the former US officers that served in the NATO command and still have many contacts with officers serving there. My impression was from the discussion last night that I read on line was it may have been a unilateral decision by President Biden to talk publicly about an impending invasion of Russian Federation forces into Ukraine the way he did. Clearly there is some level of panic going on with the US Secretary of State having an emergency meeting with Russians today in Geneva. What I did find interesting is that unlike the Magyar Nemzet article the Putin controlled news site RT news ran an article last night that explicitly did not deny that Russian troops could carry out some type of invasion of Ukraine https://www.rt.com/russia/546517-is-all-out-russia-ukraine/ it sort of just presented the possibility. Sputnik news service out of Russia today ran a story with this statement from Dmitry Peskov Putin’s official spokesperson “statements about ‘Russian aggression’ are used as an excuse to deploy as many NATO military equipment as possible to Russian borders.”
So this morning at what is called still in the US Army Reveille that is barred over PA systems on Army bases US solders got on their news feeds this article https://www.armytimes.com/flashpoints/2022/01/19/biden-promises-additional-troops-sanctions-if-russia-invades-ukraine/ . It is clearly preparing at least more highly mobile forces for possible deployment to Europe and my own daughter who is a US Army Reserve Colonel read it and sent it to me via a text just stating, will maybe I am off again Dad.
Of course she’s not on Biden’s level but our new Green foreign minister Mrs Baerbock went to Ukraine early this week and then to Russia to meet Putin.
I really wonder whether Putin is that crazy to invade Ukraine???
Besides the possible reaction of US/NATO troops he must know that all Western European governments will stop relations with Russia, all companies will have to stop export and import etc, the borders will be closed and oligarchs won’t be able to enter Western Europe.
Of course if O1G and the PISsers let them in …
Does Putin really want an economic war?
Just a small correction: PiS is at a comparable level against Putin as Orbán is pro Putin. One of the many problems the extreme right in Europe has and why no common EU party exists.
Putin is in a great position. He can do whatever he wants, he can move troops up and down the country and scare Ukraine and others. He can demand everything and he is able to look how the West reacts. Invading Ukraine would be no NATO war case, the Budapest Memorandum from 1994 did not help Ukraine to keep the borders as guaranteed in the case of the Crimea annexation. Putin can take time to decide, whether it is worth it to conquer another piece of Ukraine or not. Of course a war would improve his situation in Russia, although everything seems calm right now the treat of war is a kind of insurance for him. Whether the price for an invasion will be too high for him or not we will see, but it is impossible to forecast.
There are current articles in the Putin controlled media denying that any increased economic actions against Russia will be sufficient to deter the government from protecting Russia from what is call NATO aggression. I assume that is to prepare the population for economic consequences if Putin does order military action against Ukraine.
OT: For the referendum against Fudan and for longer paid unemployment benefits more than enough signatures have been collected, MZP declared!
Great news. I wonder how Orbán will react though…