Well I don’t know if Kyiv is going to fall tomorrow, but it is obvious there is a lack of…
The Most Christian Protector of National Minorities and Friends
Today I want to discuss a strange friendship the Orbán regime maintains with another dictatorial regime. Pretty much unnoticed from the press Péter Szijjártó visited Azerbaijan. That the minister of foreign affairs and foreign trade visits foreign countries is part of the job, but the announcements were remarkable. To understand this let’s have a short look into the past.
Azerbaijan was part of the Russian Empire and after a short independence from 1918 until it was integrated into the USSR in 1922. Just before the Soviet Union was dissolved Azerbaijan declared independence again in 1991. The early years were determined by a war with Armenia, another former Soviet Republic that declared independence just weeks before Azerbaijan did. Azerbaijan’s map is drawn complicated anyway, it is torn in 2 pieces, separated by Armenian territory, has further a couple of enclaves surrounded by Armenian territory and has an Armenian enclave in its territory as well. But the conflict rose about a part of Azerbaijan nearly completely inhabited by Armenians, Nagorno-Karabakh. Already after the independence from the Russian Empire the region was disputed, but within the USSR remained as Autonomous Oblast part of Azerbaijan. The former internal borders of the USSR are still internationally recognised. In the war Armenia occupied not only Nagorno-Karabakh, but also areas lain between this area and Armenian territory. The installed Republic of Artsakh was internationally not recognised, but closely tied to Armenia. After turbulent times and 4 presidents in 4 years – one regained power once for 4 days as well – Heydar Alirza oğlu Aliyev took power. The former KGB agent was First Secretary of the Central Committee of the Azerbaijan branch of the communist party since 1969 and later promoted to 1st deputy PM of USSR, until Gorbachev dismissed him. Short before his death he appointed his son Ilham Heydar oğlu Aliyev as candidate for presidency and stepped down. Since 2003 the son is president, “re-elected” in 2018 with 86.02 % of the votes. We can see it as a ruling family, the vice president became the wife of the president, and “of course” the country’s wealth is in the hands of the family ►EN. In 2020 Azerbaijan attacked Armenia with a new war and re-conquered the area Kalbajar-Lachin, which lies between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, and parts of Nagorno-Karabakh as well.
And what has Hungary to do with this conflict on the Southern part of Caucasus? Did the most Christian protector of the national minorities Viktor Orbán side with Christian Armenians against the Muslim Azeris? Not even close!
All started with the case of Ramil Sahib oğlu Safarov, officer of the Azeri army, who stayed in Budapest for a 6-month language course within the framework of NATO partnership for peace. Safarov took an axe and beheaded the Armenian Lieutenant Gurgen Margarján sleeping next door in 2004. He was convicted to a life imprisonment for murder with special cruelty through the Budapest court, with excluding a release by pardoning him for at least 30 years. In democratic Hungary his case was handled according to the law and the court decisions were obeyed and requests of president Aliyev to repatriate him were refused. Orbán in 2012 sent Safarov back to Azerbaijan and he was pardoned immediately and Safarov got a promotion to major for his murder. And suddenly the Azeris became fans of the Hungarian regime. To say that the suddenly granted loan of billions of Euros for the not really credit worthy 2nd Orbán government within days after the release would be a coincidence must been regarded as ridiculous.
Just 2 days after Orbán got the promise that he may import a billion cubic meters more gas Szijjártó declared to diversify Hungary’s gas purchase with Azeri gas ►EN. Fact is that already before the increase Russia is delivering 80 % of Hungarian gas. Of course this let grow the suspicions that the regime’s gas trading ambitions are growing further. 22 % more Russian gas and more gas from Azerbaijan – who would burn that in a country with a shrinking population? However, the possibilities are not really great, since the Azeris can’t deliver huge amounts of gas as Eurasianet of the Harriman Institute at Columbia University describes ►EN. Not really a business chance, but another part of the “cheap gas” propaganda lies the regime loves so much.
Again the visited country got the benefits of the visit, Hungarians just have to pay. The Azeri press is full of statements. It starts with the planned Azerbaijani Culture Centre in Budapest ►EN as still quite innocent step. Szijjártó also offered that Hungarian companies would participate in the repairs after the 2020 war ►EN. Remarkable seen the fact that Hungary has a significant shortage of construction workers and our companies are unable to maintain the Hungarian infrastructure without help from abroad. Another headline was about clearing the mines, Hungary contributed in according to the Azeri foreign minister ►EN. But the most important signal Szijjártó gave to his hosts was to tell that “Hungary always supports Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity” ►EN. Interesting to see that stance regarding the Christian Armenian minority compared to the regime’s claims regarding Hungarian minorities….
Orbán looks again for close ties to a regime that he regards as example for his own rule. It is one of the few non-monarchist family ruled countries as Syria and North Korea. A country that serves the ruler, not the people.
Voila, the “Council of Judges” (OBT) has already submitted to Orban's "reorganization" by the afternoon. https://obt-jud.hu/sites/default/files/ulesek/Osszefoglalo_2024.11.20.pdf
Putin's spokesman, Peskov: "Freezing the conflict in Ukraine [along the existing frontlines] is UNACCEPTABLE for Russia, it is important for…
According to the 2015 contract, Russia would build the the Paks-2 atomic power plant for 12.5 billion euros, from start…
Current US situation: https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/commercial-backyard-flocks
Thanks for this interesting informative article. As you pointed out, there is no need to buy more gas for Hungary. The reasons for buying more and more gas seem obvious. It has a big propaganda value, “look how good we take care of you”. The second reason may be that the regime sees big business in selling the superfluous gas to the “suffering” countries of western Europe. A third reason may be that there is a company serving as a middles man who will buy from Azerbaijan and then sell to the OMV. This until now unknown company can make enormous profit. So many chances for the regime I can think of.
How it could end on the other hand, is that if Russia and Azerbaijan really deliver the gas, we may need to build storage like with the ventilators. And it will look very good if we donate some sniffs of gas to countries we support.
Watch the gas trade by the (Orban’s front or dirty deals?) company MET in Zug, Switzerland.
https://group.met.com/executive-board-of-met-holding-ag
It purchased gas for Hungary in the past (allegedly MOL couldn’t do it that time) making over 100 billion Ft in profits. Since it is a private the distritbution of dividends is not public info, but one can guess…
So the company is not unknown 😀 thanks for the information.
I already linked this before in another post, but if you understand German this is revealing: https://www.publiceye.ch/de/standpunkte/eine-ungarische-sumpfbluete-im-zuger-rohstoffparadies
Merci vilmal.
Thank you, Istvan – it’s a very interesting report, most particularly for the unusual topic and it’s attention to minutia.
It is clear that Orban Viktor sees himself, and Hungary, as Eurasian, and, along with his other comments of needing to distance himself and Hungary from America and The West, or, at least as long as a Democrat is in the White House, it’s reasonable to assume that his dealings with the -stan countries, or new Russian-Eurasian trading block, will increase considerably.
So you want to explain away that since a short time Hungary’s traditional export surplus vanished and so many imports burden our trade balance with the dependence on Russia and Azerbaijan? That the “Eastern Opening” of Orbán was a financial disaster is nothing new, his attempt to export to the East in several countries didn’t even reach the costs of the trade centres he opened there. That Orbán hates Europe, democracy, and Hungarians is not new, he wants servants for his personal pleasure and to rent them out. BTW president Bush was republican and the one Orbán broke with. Clinton had no problems with Orbán and Obama ignored him as far as possible.
President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen spoke about the situation at the border with Ukraine, possible sanctions against Russia, and answered a question on PM Orban’s trip to Russia in this interview https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/AC_22_801 . The question relating to Orban was “The Germans are not the only ones in the EU to have a special relationship with Russia. The Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, is in Moscow today and has sat down with Putin. Are you afraid that European unity might crumble?” Her answer: “No. Hungary has backed all sanctions so far. Europe is also more important for Hungary than Russia is.”
So Magyar Nemzet took Ursula von der Leyen’s response to be an apparent endorsement of Orban and his meeting with Putin. We can read the Fidesz paper stating: “Viktor Orbán himself spoke of reconciliation in Russia on several occasions as a peace mission, European balliberal politicians and their mouthpieces have consistently described it as an anti-Western turn in the margins of the Ukrainian situation. The left-wing narrative has now been refuted by the President of the European Commission itself.” (my translation) https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2022/02/ursula-von-der-leyen-nem-aggaszt-orban-viktor-moszkvai-utja
I would say that the EU Commissioner’s response was far too contrite in response to the question, she knows very well that Orban’s visit has to be seen in the context of Péter Szijjártó’s statement on the issue of the Hungarian speaking minority in Ukraine where he stated “Even in the context of the security situation in Eastern Europe, I have honestly told my EU and NATO colleagues that if the Ukrainians do not back down from this policy (on the language instruction issue), it will severely limit the Hungarian government’s ability to provide any support to Ukraine, even in this area. also in the conflict.” ( https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2022/01/a-kulpolitikat-ma-mar-nem-szimbolumok-alapjan-kell-folytatni ) and it also has to be seen in the actual reality of the Orban/Putin joint press conference. Where Putin was aggressive against NATO and on the attack, Orban was a bit player in the press conference. Orban never even once tried to defend NATO, all he did was babble about the need to resolve differences and have peace. I have no doubt Ursula von der Leyen’s staff has fully briefed her on all that and she simply chose to not discuss any of it in the interview. If she has no fears that European unity over the conflict with Russia over Ukraine might crumble and Hungary is a weak link in the unifying chain on this issue, then she is not as bright of a woman as I take her to be.
The question is how to express those fears in an answer without promoting defeatism and recognizing that Orban has indeed never formally flipped over to the Russian side. I think she could have given a much more nuanced answer, after all she was Germany’s first female Defense minister. When in that role in 2015, as a result of severe NATO–Russian tensions in Europe, she supported a significant increase in defense spending. In May 2015, the German government approved an increase in defense spending, at the time 1.3% of GDP, by 6.2% over the following five years, allowing the Ministry of Defense to modernize the army fully. She also called for more significant NATO backing of the Baltic states after the Russian seizure of Crimea. She herself has met with Putin (see photo below) and knows what a manipulator he is.
Von der Leyen herself publicly criticized former SPD Chancellor Schroder for his comments made in late January claiming Ukraine was saber-rattling in seeking more weapons she stated correctly that “Gerhard Schröder is paid by Russian energy companies and represents their interests.” The question is might not some of Orban’s oligarchs being paid also by the Russians via Rosatom in relationship to Paks II project? So many aspects of the Paks II project are secret based on Fidesz passed laws we have no full knowledge of where the loaned Russian money is going. If Von der Leyen can be critical of Schröder having economic interests tied to the Russians, then why not be at publicly be at least somewhat circumspect about Orban?
I completely agree that Germany has a special connection with Russia. Both through history, and the close relation that grew during Germany’s unification process. Yes, Germany does good business with Russia as well. However, this doesn’t mean that Germany is a great friend of Putin. The sanctions that were introduced after the invasion of Crimea have been lobbied for in the EU by Germany. Not exclusively, but as well. However, this special connection is nothing compared to Orbán. Not even the old fool and former German chancellor Schröder told NATO to fulfil desires of Putin – Orbán did! Even if chancellor Scholz is from the same party as Schröder he just declared that he neither asked nor got advice from Schröder concerning the Russian aggression. That Schröder was criticised by v/d Leyen is no surprise. They are not only of different parties, Schröder is generally very isolated with his love for Putin, at least in parties of the democratic spectrum. Orbán and others of his far right friends for a part would agree of course.
I have no idea why v/d Leyen has so many stupid ideas about Orbán. Just look that Guy Verhofstadt called for her replacement, because she doesn’t follow EU law in favour of the Orbán regime. Is it perhaps a preparation to stand harder against him after the decision of the ECJ concerning the rule-of-law mechanism without giving him a chance of telling that she would be hateful all the times? Or am I interpreting too much into her political abilities and her job is perhaps just too much for her?