Well I don’t know if Kyiv is going to fall tomorrow, but it is obvious there is a lack of…
Together with NATO, We Defend the Borders of Hungary and Europe
UPDATED – This is the statement of Orbán according to his official website ►HU. For a head of government of a NATO member this statement should be a very normal thing to be loyal with the other states that agreed on common defence. But in case of Viktor Orbán this sentence is a sensation! All his propaganda press was sent only days before chasing his opponent in the upcoming elections for saying pretty much the same, who announced to be loyal to NATO.
How does it come? Orbán is isolated and under pressure from abroad as well. The closest ideological ally of FIDESZ, the Polish PiS, has repeatedly called Orbán to allow harder sanctions against Russia. Banning Russia from SWIFT, the international interbank payment system, has been refused from several states by several reasons. Cyprus is functioning as safe harbour for the funds of Russian oligarchs, but agreed. Germany and Italy – where former European Central Bank governor Draghi is currently Prime Minister – were afraid of a collapse of international finances and agreed to exclude Russian banks instead of Russia itself. After yesterday president of Ukraine Zelensky called Orbán to agree with a ban on Swift also Polish PM Mateusz Morawiecki spoke to Orbán again and he stated: “…. [Orbán] assured me of his support for far-reaching sanctions against Russia. Including about blocking the SWIFT system.” Translated with Google ►PL. I also heard about pressure from the other ally Orbán still has in Europe, Slovenia.
For this moment Orbán abandoned his love affair with Putin and the EU stands together closely. Remains the question: What does this newest turn around mean for the elections? Russia never was a very beloved country among Hungarians, the FIDESZ propaganda media have through the years pushed the people into the line of Orbán that Russia would be the best friend of Hungarians. Hard to know what FIDESZ voters will say regarding this new sudden turn of their idol. The official line that the Russia of 2022 is no longer the old Soviet Union is hard to maintain with the pictures arriving from Ukraine. The name changed, the person in charge changed, but not the desire of maintaining marionette regimes around, suppressing neighbours, and if neighbours don’t subjugate sending the military. I don’t know what the FIDESZ supporters will think about all this regarding the fact that Putin literally has bombed away the narrative of their own state party.
A question also discussed on Partizán yesterday evening ►HU. It is still amazing that most intelligent discussions about Hungarian politics take place on internet TV, especially contrasting the Russian propaganda on Hungarian state TV I wrote about yesterday. After an update how the situation in Ukraine was yesterday a long discussion took place, that would fill a post on its own. Later Katalin Cseh (MEP, M) was interviewed (1:12:56 in the video). She sat in a car at that moment, on a mission for the European Parliament within Transcarpathia, Ukraine. In her function as member of the EP committee of foreign affairs she wants to get an impression of her own at least in an area that is still far away from Russian troops. She saw a 30 km long row of vehicles in the opposite direction. She wants sanctions imposed on Russia that lead to a complete isolation of Russia. While young Hungarians are killed at the front, kindergartens and houses are bombed it is no time to think about good relationship with Putin. From Hungary she wants additionally to ban the International Investment Bank IIB, the former COMECON bank, that was installed in Budapest by Putin and Orbán and that got diplomatic immunity and the Russian members are suspected of intelligence activities. Remark: Romania had a share in IIB as well, but left yesterday. She also wants to ban Russian propaganda media from broadcasting within the EU. And she wants to stop the permission procedure for Paks 2 nuclear power plant. She also wants to get independent from Russian energy, but admitted within the same sentence that this would be a long-term project that only can be archived in European co-operation.
Next guest was Péter Márki-Zay (1:20:52 in the video). Before answering any question he pointed out that his answers on the questions of the host Márton Gulyás were abused through the regime media and that he talked about exactly the same as Orbán earlier today, about being a loyal member of NATO. He was victim of the most ugly attacks through these questions, what of course not will happen with Orbán in his own media empire. Here I have to agree and to disagree. Of course Orbán will not be attacked in the propaganda media for telling exactly the same as MZP has been attacked for. Nothing wrong to point out this fact instead of answering questions before. But it is part of good journalism not just to offer the interviewed just a space for ventilation of his thoughts, but also to insist on answering of questions. In the media world Orbán created not only the last 12 years, but before as well, this might get forgotten, but Partizán is obviously not the same as Kossuth Rádió, where “journalists” are only present for giving keywords to the PM on his Friday preaches. The abolition of free media in Hungary has made us too much believing in the idea that media have to serve parties or persons instead of informing.
Gulyás gave the good example to insist on answers after this statement as well. Márki-Zay answered that he definitely would not call for closing down gas deliveries, exactly in opposite to what did Orbán with Ukraine on Putin’s order before. This time, although invading Ukraine, Putin did not stop gas exports through Ukraine, but increased the quantity of gas channelling through Ukraine. The question of cutting off Europe from Russian gas at this moment is not even on table. What the sanctions are MZP wants? To do the same as Finland did, when stopping their nuclear power plant project they have together with the Russians. Closing down the spybank IIB Orbán installed in Budapest in a treacherous way by giving Russian spies diplomatic status. So much he serves Putin, so much he disregards Europe, so much is his disloyalty against NATO! And although being just a symbolic act the foreign minister should hand back the medal of friendship he got from his Russian counterpart.
Márki-Zay named in a row what else has been done by Orbán disregarding the interests of both the international community and Hungarians. Among them the released axle murder, sending weapon smugglers not to the USA who looked for them, but home to Russia, while it is NATO who is the only warranty of freedom Hungary has. And while president Biden declared to defend every single square centimetre of NATO member territories, states threatened by Putin what did Orbán do? As only member state refusing additional NATO forces coming to Hungary. Orbán did do what Putin ordered, although he earlier also threatened Hungary. Biden and the Americans were very correct when they said that Putin would attack Ukraine and not only want to “protect” the separatists. Treasonous Orbán means the highest risk for our own security.
Whether he has background information he could share with the audience? One that he has been strictly advised from Ukraine officials not to travel to Transcarpathia, since his return to Hungary could not be ensured in case of Russians might be present at the area at that time. Another information he got during his visit to Germany. Remark: He returned from Germany the night Putin invaded Ukraine. He met leaders of the 3 coalition parties, 2 state secretaries and a minister. With all of them of course the topic Ukraine was discussed. At that time his conversational partner said Orbán would veto sanctions against Russia. Orbán was regarded as the most disloyal partner within EU and NATO siding with Putin. Germany has no confidence in Orbán and they would be right, it is no good idea relying on a traitor.
The opposition wants to call together parliament and Orbán should declare what the people have to expect. Remark: Last seating Orbán did not participate. They want to discuss in parliament the question to ban Russian planes from Hungarian airspace. Right now Orbán is telling one thing one day and the opposite the next day. Still today the minister of defence is claiming the same Orbán did before that no NATO troops may enter Hungary, today Orbán seem to admit them. Within the V4 Orbán is isolated as the only serving Putin. The Slovenian PM called Orbán to move to stricter sanctions. The Polish pressured strongly concerning SWIFT. MZP told again that the swing policy must be ended now. Orbán has to express himself in front of Hungarians and the international community.
Whether FIDESZ would use the situation to postpone the elections with their 2/3 majority in parliament? Márki-Zay does not think so. He had the possibility already with the pandemic and decided to let the elections happen. And there are also financial reasons for having the elections early. Remark: Orbán has given away so many presents to the electorate that the state finances are endangered and regarding the shut down of EU funding we have to face it is even more important to change course and the “we can finance everything” attitude of Orbán can’t be held up for long.
And the problem of inflation. Already last year in May the governor of the central bank has called for actions against the inflation. Obviously Matolcsy is willing to fight inflation seriously and MZP is also prepared to do so. He has the impression that a co-operation in this field would be possible. Stopping throwing away money, stopping financing oligarchs, stopping corruption, stopping stadium building would contribute a lot. His aim is a strong Forint that allows the introduction of the Euro to get away from the weak Forint policy we have now. While the prosecutor general has been brought in position unconstitutionally the governor of the central bank was elected legally. But at least in case of inflation both Matolcsy and MZP pursue a common target.
And what is about the connections of Jobbik with Russia? Normal connections to Russia never have been a problem. That Jobbik had a very problematic member, Béla Kovács or better known as KGBéla, is correct, but he moved back to Moscow and plays no role any more in Hungarian politics. Within Unity for Hungary as today there are no problematic contacts to Russia at all, completely in opposite to FIDESZ. As far as Jobbik candidates concerned he doesn’t know anybody choosing the Russian side right now.
Asked what Mi Házank would think, since they usually have chosen to side with Russian and are completely silent about the war in Ukraine, MZP said that they will think what FIDESZ will tell them to think. A vaccinated MP campaigns against vaccinations, where their best results had been in the EP elections they did not even run in the local elections a few months later. They wouldn’t be an independent party, but the FIDESZ nazi wing.
At the end the question whether the war would push Orbán as the incumbent PM or whether his closeness to Putin would obstruct him? The regime propaganda will tell whatever they want, just as the opposition has been claimed to be anti-vaxxers, now that they would be war mongers for the same position Orbán also changed to – which MZP said is a relief to him. For him it is important that Orbán never again turns back to Putin, that Orbán never again betrays Hungary. The 36 days until the elections he should be able to keep up not to endanger our safety again. Who up to now is committed to the brainwashing media won’t change mind anyway. But there is another part of the Hungarian people. Rightwingers, Christians. Those, who never would vote for a traitor. No respectable Hungarian at all would do so.
UPDATE – The Czech Republic announced to leave IIB ►HU.
Voila, the “Council of Judges” (OBT) has already submitted to Orban's "reorganization" by the afternoon. https://obt-jud.hu/sites/default/files/ulesek/Osszefoglalo_2024.11.20.pdf
Putin's spokesman, Peskov: "Freezing the conflict in Ukraine [along the existing frontlines] is UNACCEPTABLE for Russia, it is important for…
According to the 2015 contract, Russia would build the the Paks-2 atomic power plant for 12.5 billion euros, from start…
Current US situation: https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/commercial-backyard-flocks
„… Those, who never would vote for a traitor. No respectable Hungarian at all would do so.“ strong words I hear them – only alone the faith or the experience is missing.
First off I thought todays post was excellent and I thank Istvan for his hard work. In this article today Magyar Nemzet tried to attack MZP for saying Hungary should be sending arms to Ukraine but not combat troops (see https://magyarnemzet.hu/belfold/2022/02/marki-zay-peter-ismet-a-magyar-emberek-ellen-kampanyol ). The article implied there was some type of prohibition on doing that due to Hungary being a NATO member. That is absurd, the USA the largest NATO member has sent billions of dollars of weapons, ammunition, and advanced systems to Ukraine. Even Germany has dropped it’s Green Party line of not providing weapons to conflict zones and authorized sending weapons. The total fear of Orban of Putin and Russians could well lead to his defeat in April. I agrees totally with Istvan’s analysis of Fidesz trying to change its tone in the media from neutral to pro-Ukrainian with limits.
From everything I am seeing the Hungarian people are welcoming all Ukrainian refugees, not just Hungarian speakers. The border guards are being incredibly slow in admitting people and BBC reported waits of up to 13 hours to cross the border on its world news this morning. Amazingly the Ukrainians have shown incredible courage against the Russians, very similarly to the Hungarian resistance in 1956. It is very possible, and horrible the Russians faced with repeated failures to use fast moving light infantry to take the city center of Kiev due to mass resistance, they will now resort to artillery and rockets to bring Kiev to its knees. There was a discussion on a US military blog I am on relating to the possibility of the Russians ordering the use of TOS-1 or TOS-1A Multiple Rocket Launchers against Kiev that are capable of launching rockets with thermobaric warheads on Kiev. These create a fireball and suffocate those around it (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermobaric_weapon# ). Apparently Putin wants to murder the women and children hiding in the subway tunnels. Putin has done worse, and those therobaric weapons have been used by the Russians in Syria by Russian fighter bombers. Very possibly Putin’s fat generals are studying old Nazi plans for reducing the Warsaw Jewish ghetto and applying them to the situation at hand. No doubt if they fail to take Kiev they will have to shoot themselves, or Putin will have it done.
The odds are heavily against Ukraine in this fight, and according to reports in the US media the US CIA and Biden administration offered a plan to Zelensky yesterday to secretly evacuate Kiev and relocate closer to Poland to prepare for a possible government in exile along with long term guerrilla war against the Russians. According to discussions from retired US Army special forces officers I have seen on the internet the plan could have involved some covert US forces and was pretty high risk. He rejected it completely according to the reports I have read.
„Video of a Russian military column reportedly near the town of Okhynky, on the highway between Kyiv and Sumy. There’s a TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS.“
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497839062132183042?cxt=HHwWhMC-0Z2ssskpAAAA
Istvan Ch
The Orban propaganda is pushing a balatant lie – ie. that the opposition wants to send Hu soldiers into Ukr.
In fact MZP stated that Hu should act on what is decided by NATO, incl. sending arms and troops if so decided, which is eactly how NATO is supposed to operate. Not for our gypsy horse trader who is in only for the money….
President Zelensky will now meet with the Russians at the Belarus border near the Pripyat River after talking directly with Lukashenko and establishing some pre-conditions.
The NY Times also disturbingly stated: “Just before Mr. Zelensky’s announcement, Mr. Putin issued a new threat to the West, which has promised to supply arms to Ukraine and placed damaging sanctions on the Russian economy. In brief remarks aired on state television, he told his defense minister and his top military commander to place Russia’s nuclear forces on alert, characterizing the move as a response to the West’s aggressive actions.”
The Defense Ready Condition (DEFCON) Levels which are a way of identifying the current threat level faced by the Department of Defense and the United States military have not been publicly announced as having been raised as yet. It is possible it has been done so secretly. God help us all my worst fears are at hand. I hope this is Putin bravado trying save face for the apparent several thousand casualties the Russians have taken and are being leaked using the dark web to the Russian people.
I hope President Zelensky the Brave knows that this is extremely dangerous. Lukashenko is as credible as Orbán and Putin. Zelensky’s courage is remarkable …
Is Zelensky going himself?
No, “low level delegations” are said to go.
Isvtan Ch
Tnx for using “alert” without “high” as it has been almost universally used, incorrectly imo.
The word Putin used is “подготовить” which means literally preparation, while high alert is “високая готовность”. I don’t know all the levels in use there, but the one used seems a basic one.
I am listening right now to Jeremy Bash former chief of staff at the Central Intelligence Agency (2009–2011) and the U.S. Department of Defense (2011–2013) under President Barack Obama. He is openly discussing on an NBC news program (Meet the Press) about a tactical nuclear exchange with Russia in Europe, truly frightening.
Here is the Russian report on Putin’s nuclear speech https://www.rt.com/russia/550767-putin-nuclear-deterrent-forces-order/
latest from bbc website live feed:
EU to begin providing arms to UkraineThe European Union has announced that it intends to begin shipping arms to Ukraine, the first time in its history it has taken such a step.
Speaking at a press conference this afternoon, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the move marked a “watershed moment”.
She also announced a raft of new sanctions targeting Russia and Belarus, and a ban on Russia using European airspace.
Of course that news about the EU is wonderful, but I am also sure Putin will try to destroy all weapons shipments going into Ukraine. I am fairly sure the location my daughter in Poland with the US 82nd airborne is brimming with Patriot anti-aircraft batteries now in their 3rd generation equipped with new MIM-104F missiles. NATO fighter interceptors are I suspect locked and loaded. I hope Orban has all of his Saab Gripen fighters in working order they may be needed.
Try he may, but your daughter will probably tell you they are confident he will not have much success. I suspect she and her comrades have plenty of experience and equipment to frustrate his efforts.
The impending “talks” are meaningless. No sensible leader would allow any senior official make the journey. I remember from well when Colonel Maleter went to negotiate with I think Zhukov at Thokoly only to be arrested and murdered. They can talk through the usual channels.
Reading the Army Times, the largest on line newspaper read by by US Army soldiers and officers, it is clear to me many US soldiers are inspired by the resistance of the Ukrainians. Just from the comments I read sent by soldiers they are almost desperate to join the Battle.
After the humiliating experience of Afghanistan our soldiers want a victory. Right now there are at least 4,700 US Army combat soldiers on the Polish Ukrainian border with an unknown additional number of other soldiers in non-combat roles, like my daughter who also carry weapons and are combat trained.
I still pray Putin does not attack NATO, but trembling with fear like Orban will only inspire Putin to be even more aggressive.
It is good to read that the morale of the military is high.
I share your views that it would not be comfortable for Putin to attack NATO, especially since the fallout is virtually impossible to predict.
However, eventually we stood our ground together to defeat monster Hitler.
There is no difference now. We are having to deal with an aggressor who seriously believes that he has an entitlement to attack peaceful neighbours at will. Since he is wrong it is difficult to see what will put an end to his delusion. Hoping that signing some piece of paper promising “peace in our time” would work is clearly fallacious. My conclusion is that Putin will have to be confronted by NATO sooner or later. I put my vote not for sooner nor for later. I put my vote firmly for NOW.
The steps taken so far are moderate and will gain time and allies. But they will not work. Prepare for war.
Last sentence very important. I had initial fear when I skied down double black diamond yesterday, but “trembling with fear” is useless. In this case, “trembling” emboldens Putin.
Your comments about 1956, Col. Pal Maleter were spot on. Putin and his thugs are very capable of imprisoning any one sent to “negotiate.”
Just read what MZP said about travelling to Ukraine and possibly not being allowed to return by Russians the one or other way, just as a friendly gesture from Putin to Orbán. He definitely does’t have a diplomatic passport for at least somewhat safe return. Opposition mayors don’t get one, only Putin’s “bankers” and Völner’s bailiffs. And the same time he should be so much less important to Putin as Zelensky is.
MZP need not travel to Ukraine. His assessment of the risks is only too real.
This is how FIFA works:Fifa announces measures against Russia – but no banFifa, the world’s football governing body, has announced a number of measures affecting Russia’s participation in international games, but stopped short of imposing an outright ban.
It said that no international competition would be played on Russian territory, the country would compete under the name “Football Union of Russia (RFU)”, and that no Russian flag or anthem would be used in RFU matches.
It said any “home” matches would be played on neutral territory – without spectators, and that the measures would be “applicable until further notice”.
Poland has reacted angrily, saying they will not play against Russia, “no matter what the name of the team is.”
Fifa’s statement also condemned Russia’s use of force in Ukraine and said it would “continue its ongoing dialogue with the IOC, UEFA and other sport organisations to determine any additional measures or sanctions”.
The organisation had come under pressure to act in recent days as football associations across Europe announced that their teams would refuse to play in any games against Russia.
In the UK, the FA also announced this evening that the England team wouldn’t play any matches against Russia “for the foreseeable future”.
Poland, Sweden and the Czech republic have announced they wouldn’t play against Russia. If more countries join, FIFA will have no other option but ban Russia’s team.
Maybe or maybe not. That is frankly not the issue. FIFA which is deeply corrupt and not fit to run the sport should have expelled Russia already. Are they not able to understand the facts that even a retarded child of 5 years of age can see with complete clarity.
https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/02/27/kyiv-tanks-video-hertling-vpx.cnn So this interview with retired US General Hertling is scathing in his criticism of the Russian commanders. His thinking is similar to my own the Russians will start to level Kiev and other cities with artillery, and rockets.
I saw the interview, and agree with the criticism on the logistics of the Russian army.
My thinking is, that this logistic problem will stop the Russian invasion from being successful. The tanks, trucks, supplies, etc. will be delayed and be very vulnerable for Ukranian attacks. That is why weapons that can attack tanks have to be transported there are so important. What holds my breath is the nuclear option. I have no clue about what it needs in Russia to really launch nuclear weapons. What kind of technicalities are provided? I just hope there is no button on Putins desk to launch rockets like the zero-coke button on the desk in the oval office in the orange man times.
If Russian troops have logistics issue just kilometers away from Russia’s border, it makes you wonder what they will be facing when moving deeper into Ukraine. And it’s not just fuel, I saw on Twitter (of course, one must remain vigilant as to whether these posts are authentic) Russian soldiers looting a supermarket in a Ukrainian town just to get food or a Ukrainian hospital taking in wounded Russian troops.
Abandoning Russia, or waiting for a future moment to side with Russia!
O1G would do both, time and again. Unburdened by such things as laws, morals or traditions, he’s been flipping like a baker’s paddle all his life. Won’t change now.
The exclusion of Russia from the EU skies is not observed strictly.
Private jets fly back and forth. All right, they are registered in Malta, Turkey, Serbia etc.
Look at 9H-AIS (an Embraer Legacy 600, officially owned by Maltese Blue Square Aviation) for instance.
February 23-26:
Moscow – Zurich – London – Larnaca – Cairo – Riyadh – Dubai – Victoria (Seychelles) – Dubai – Male (Maldives) – Dubai – Moscow
February 27: Moscow – Riga – Moscow – Geneva
February 28: Geneva – Moscow (via Germany, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia)
Or look at today’s flight of a Bombardier Global 6000 with unknown registration that departed Hamburg this morning and which is now in Russia.
Here is a third, currently flying example
YU-PDD (a Cessna 560XL Citation XLS+ registered in Serbia),
which left Geneva at 8 AM, flying over Germany, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia with the destination of Vnukovo (Moscow).
Tappanch, I don’t understand it. Please help me. If an aircraft is not registered in Russia why do you say the sanctions bite on its movements?
Ursula von der yesterday:
“First, we are shutting down the EU airspace for Russians.
We are proposing a prohibition on all Russian-owned, Russian registered or Russian-controlled aircraft.
These aircraft will no more be able to land in, take off or overfly the territory of the EU.
This will apply to any plane owned, chartered or otherwise controlled by a Russian legal or natural person.
So let me be very clear.
Our airspace will be closed to every Russian plane – and that includes the private jets of oligarchs.”
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_22_1441
Thanks,
”This will apply to any plane owned, chartered or otherwise controlled by a Russian legal or natural person.”
Those who monitor aircraft traffic would need to have access to the data informing them of ownership, charter agreements and of persons in control.
Presumably you have access to that data then why not the officials?
I think this discussion is a bit too early. Although things are going very fast it takes at least some hours. All countries that introduced a ban before gave the chance to leave airspace within technical possible time frames. Planes registered and owned in Malta – to use your example – can be investigated when flying to Russia, but not more. Is the plane chartered by a Russian? Or is a Maltese citizen travelling? The EU has not banned flights to Russia, but Russian flights. I am as EU citizen allowed to travel to Russia – as long as I get the needed Russian visa, this is not banned. Not that I would want, but I am allowed to travel from the EU point of view. The EU wants to investigate where banned Russian oligarchs have hidden property, having a look who is the beneficial owner of that plane would be logical.
The International Investment [and Spy] Bank, which is more than 50% owned by Russia and headquartered in Budapest does not think that the EU embargo extends to the bank.
https://www.napi.hu/magyar-gazdasag/nemzetkozi-beruhazasi-bank-budapest-kgst-bank-ukrajna-haboru-szankciok-valasz.746897.html
https://444.hu/2022/02/27/csehorszag-utan-romania-is-kilep-a-budapesti-szekhelyu-orosz-bankbol
Orbán’s concerns over Nato and EU involvement in the war are very real and existential.
Further involvement threatens his established policy of cooperation with Putin, as well as his ambition to obtain Russian rewards of political control in the Transcarpathian region.
Increasing Nato and EU involvement will steadily add to the pressure on Orbán’s “Should we stay or should we leave?”-act, making “leave” his safest option for maintaining his present political course – but also the safest option for not obtaining reelection.
We probably can’t expect to hear him come clean on these issues before after the 3rd. of April.
This
https://hvg.hu/itthon/20220228_mi_hazank_papa_katonai_repulo_oroszorszag_ukrajna_raketa_akna_tavcsoves_fegyver