Well I don’t know if Kyiv is going to fall tomorrow, but it is obvious there is a lack of…
Strategic Peace in the Grave
The Ukraine ambassador in Budapest Ljubov Nepop was guest of think tank Political Capital and reacted on Orbán’s call for strategic peace, as he said in his “interview” on state TV last Sunday ►EN, which I covered as well. Nepop asked: “are overhead cuts more important than human lives?” 444 reported as 1st about the conference held behind closed doors ►HU. “You will be next, Putin will not stop,” she continued. “The West does a lot, but not enough. The Russians could be stopped, but now people are stopping tanks in Ukraine without weapons. In the occupied cities, our anthem is sung in the squares. We need more help! …. Your strategic peace will only happen in the grave”
Further she is quoted with a clear demand how Hungarians should act on the upcoming national holiday on March 15th ►HU: “The anniversary of the 1848 revolution is coming and you are talking about overhead cuts? Aren’t you ashamed of yourself? Isn’t human life important? Do those for whom overhead cuts are more important than freedom have the right to celebrate March 15th? Please, only those who have the courage to stand up for freedom should take to the streets this year to celebrate!”
But Nepop thanked the Hungarian government and society for helping refugees, as well as for supporting EU sanctions. The courageous lady added that if Hungary does not send weapons, other equipment would be very necessary for survival as well: Generators, sleeping bags, for example. “It is better for the Hungarians if the Ukrainians are fighting with those weapons now, as if they will have to defend their own borders with them,” clearly pointing again to Orbán’s claim that Hungary can’t send weapons, even if he would want so, because we haven’t enough ourselves. The same day the Hungarian foreign minister, proud recipient of the Russian friendship medal, told the world ►HU: “The Hungarian army can defend Hungary, it does not need additional forces.”
Regarding the leaked statements of ambassador Nepop Népszava took the opportunity to send her a couple of questions ►HU, these are her answers:
Are you satisfied with the support you received from Hungary?
The occupiers shoot down the capital, Kiev, the country’s cultural and university centre, Kharkiv, and many other settlements with heavy weapons. Their cynicism knows no borders, their rockets destroy administrative buildings and residential houses, and even hospitals and orphanages. Their main targets are the big cities with a large Russian-speaking population. So much about Moscow’s loss of eyesight, claiming that it wants to protect them…. This open aggression is condemned by the whole world. At the invitation of President Volodymyr Zelensky, the international anti-war coalition was formed, of which Hungary is a member. So today we are allies in this war. We are grateful to the Hungarian government for supporting sanctions against Russia, the EU’s decision to help Ukraine with weapons from European Peace Facility resources, and for offering care for wounded soldiers and assistance to Ukrainians fleeing the war. We are grateful to all Hungarian citizens and members of the Hungarian minority living in Ukraine, who in demonstrations are demanding an end to the war.
The message of the leaders of the Hungarian government has been so far that Hungary must stay out of this conflict, and they emphasised that calm decisions are needed. Do you agree with them?
Today, everyone has the opportunity to help stopping Putin…. Anyone who does not do so will be responsible for Putin’s atrocities. Is what Hungary and our other partners are doing enough? No…. We now need more weapons and for our allies to close the airspace of Ukraine, preventing further bombing the peaceful population. We are not asking Hungarian soldiers or soldiers from other NATO member states to come and fight for us …. It is much less expensive today to help Ukraine with weapons and equipment than to wait for the Russians to reach Hungary’s borders. Transcarpathian Hungarians fighting in the Ukrainian armed forces are also part of this struggle. There is a lot of talk about the help that Hungary gives to the Hungarians in Transcarpathia. Today, they are also helping Hungary in the fight against Russian aggression.
Until the outbreak of the war, Viktor Orbán’s government favoured the development of relations with Russia, while blocking Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration efforts.
When Russia invaded Ukraine, it marked a dividing line along which many countries changed their positions. Hungary’s accession to the eight EU countries that supported Ukraine’s EU candidate status is a consistent step by the Hungarian government, for which we are grateful…. As for co-operation with Russia, we believe it is time to “deputinise” the world…. European stores and their customers are abandoning Russian goods…. No International Investment Bank, no Paks 2, gas deals, overhead cuts or Russian vaccines can justify the shameful death of innocent children. These are sins that cannot be left without answer. If we turn a blind eye to inhumanity and barbarism, can we look into the eyes of our own children and being happy with low gas tariffs?
What opportunity do you see for stopping the war? Would your country accept forced neutrality?
The frontline and opportunities for diplomacy are closely linked. The lesser our losses are when bouncing back the Russian attacks, the better our negotiating positions and our chances of peace will be. That is why we also tell our Hungarian partners: Give us weapons and protective equipment so that we can defend ourselves – and you! And that is why we are asking NATO to close the airspace over Ukraine. We do the rest ourselves…. Are we ready to be neutral in exchange for stopping further destruction? The Kremlin mixes the concepts perfectly, but let’s be clear: It is a cynical lie. In 2014, we were neutral. Did that save us? Today, the Kremlin does not want our ‘neutrality’, it wants to “denaziise us, by which us meant to destroy the Ukrainian nation and statehood. Putin hates everything that is Ukrainian because the Ukrainian people are freedom loving, democratic, European, which is contrary to his whole philosophy and values. Suppression, control, fear, obedience – this is what is meant by the demanded neutrality. No Ukrainian will ever agree to that. And when asked to accept neutrality, Hungarians need to ask themselves, whether they agree with Putin’s next demand that NATO’s infrastructure must be restored to pre-1997 levels? Do they agree to restore Russian influence in all post-socialist countries, which means to deprive them of their independence? I think your answer also answers the question of Ukraine’s neutrality.
So far the interview. While we must accept that Ms Nepop is of course speaking on behalf of her country, a country in war with its much larger neighbour, she is analytically very clear and understands the situation in Hungary very much to the point. Just to mention it, she speaks Hungarian, so she is not hindered by a language barrier to understand what it is happening in the country. However, Hungary as all NATO members must be aware of consequences of acting in all cases. A no fly zone is in my personal opinion no option. The declaration of such has no meaning if it is not followed by a military mission. While I am pretty sure that NATO has the means to do so this definitely will be regarded as NATO attack on Russia by Putin. Even more regarding the fact that one of the largest armies in the world is struggling in fighting against a country that is although it is the second largest country in Europe only large in territory, Ukraine is less populous than for example France, UK, Germany, Italy, Spain or Turkey, which all are NATO members. Ukraine is about as populous as Poland is. Putin expected a blitzkrieg and is said to have had an outburst of fury against his generals. If Ukraine resists so much against being liberated by Putin, how little his chances against the largest defence alliance would be? This means he has only his nuclear weapons left to bring the destruction of cities we see in Ukraine over the entire world and onto another level, which would mean a complete destruction of the planet.
But of course the Orbán regime has felt attacked by the ambassador’s words. In Orbán’s “family friendly Hungary” it is a deadly sin to tell that lives of children are more important than the price of gas. An ambassador mustn’t say what she wants for her country, obviously a foreign ambassador in Budapest has to choose between FIDESZ and Unity for Hungary. It was FIDESZ MP Gyula Budai, who was ordered to attack the Ukrainian ambassador:
Ms Ambassador Nepop Ljubov! You are the Ambassador of Ukraine in Budapest, therefore, to put it mildly, the statement you made in the Hungarian press about my country, Hungary, was unworthy of you! …. With your statement, you openly entered the Hungarian election campaign, on the side of the left-wing opposition!
Budai ended his facebook post with calling the ambassador to work for peace in Ukraine instead ►HU. I have no words for such a primitive approach!
Russian government plane #RSD088, Ilyushin Il-96-300, RA-96019 is over the Atlantic.
Petersburg (Leningrad) – Washington DC
It will land in IAD at noon EST.(6 PM Central European time)
Who is on board?
https://www.flightradar24.com/RSD088/2b07dd1e
Well spotted.
Lavrov?
Rudolf Hess
I became this answer on twitter
Whilst I understand and largely agree with what the Ambassador said, I also believe that some of it was unwise coming from an Ambassador.
I don’t know that a no fly zone would not be a sensible thing to introduce. Russia is getting bogged down in Ukraine and it is entirely possible it would not want to open up another conflict zone, this time with NATO. We should listen to Zelensky.
Orban forced to sit on a fence is a sight to treasure. How long before he is forced by events to make a choice remains to be seen. His target date is just about 4 weeks from now. That is an awfully long time.
To be clear: Putin still has good chances to win over Ukraine. Although it is said that practically all troops he surrounded Ukraine with passed the border now, this is just a small part of the entire Russian army. So if he can survive a long war with both heavy losses and under international economic pressure politically he still has a huge potential he can use against Ukraine. And against NATO, if he feels attacked. If you look at the narratives of an Orbán for example, who changes arguments only very slightly or fast in case of an event beyond his control, which he can sell as appropriate answer, this is completely missing in Putin’s latest messages. Even his close lackeys are not aware any more what to tell when life on TV together with the boss. A few weeks ago I was still convinced that Putin is a brutal dictator, but one that is acting logically, at least if we accept that the suppression of smaller countries, of the opposition, of facts is part of his acting. Soviet leaders after Stalin did exactly the same, but always were acting logical enough in the attempt to prohibit the possibility being beaten, even if we include the massive miscalculation of the Afghanistan invasion that ended after 10 years with withdrawal of troops. And even Stalin ended the winter war against Finland and did not conquer the entire country, since resistance was too heavy. That Putin might do the same as Stalin did is at least questionable, his strained self-confidence will probably hinder him to retract, but make him attack. And this is the danger the entire world is in right now.
There will be no victory for Ukraine in this war its cities are being shelled and rocketed into submission. It could go on for a while. It is pretty clear that the Russians have not taken out the train tracks allowing civilians to escape many cities. So this is all strategic.The Russians are even allowing a cease fire in the south to evacuate some civilians, from their perspective why not the cost of supporting them is shifted to the EU and the West.
Artillery is infinitely cheaper than missiles and it will be increasing used to make many Ukrainian residential areas unlivable causing people to flee to Poland, Hungary, and Romania. We only need to recall what was done to the ISIS capitol of Raqqa where even white phosphorus artillery shells were used. This drone footage of Raqqa https://abcnews.go.com/International/drone-footage-captures-aftermath-isis-raqqa/story?id=50609000 shows how far the Russians can go, because this is how far we went to destroy ISIS’s last center of power. US Marines providing artillery support to U.S.-backed Syrian fighters in Raqqa fired so many consecutive rounds they burned out the barrels of two M777 155 mm howitzers. These are lightweight howitzers that have a range of about 18 miles. To say ISIS were monsters is not an understatement from my perspective, but it was also mass murder of noncombatants.
The Russians have similar lightweight artillery that are highly mobile and I have little doubt they are using them on Kyiv to reduce their costs because they are now in effective range for basically indiscriminate fire which apparently is already happening. Based on recording made by the private international security firm out of London ShadowBreak International we can hear Russian artillery commanders ordering such massive fire on Kyiv if you want to pay for it. I have read some transcripts of translated recordings of Russian officers who did jobs very similar to what I did in the US Army. (These recordings are of Russian troops were using analogue radios instead of more secure digital channels showed a lack of logistical preparedness for the invasion. But I believe the CIA may have even breached the digital channels now.)
The Russians last night attempted yet again to kill Volodymyr Zelensky (https://www.huffpost.com/entry/volodymyr-zelenskyy-assassination-attempts_n_62223f97e4b0bd1df76b3a74) it seems between NATO, the CIA, and Ukrainian intelligence efforts all of these raids have been intercepted with the Russians or Chechen special forces killed.
I would say civilians in Europe, in the USA, and around the world are horrified by what they are seeing nightly on the internet and TV. It is not news or surprising for those who have been in combat, it is causing many people with combat related PTSD to require care. Luckily I have been able to sleep with the help of medication that I rarely have to use and feel reasonably ok.
Exactly about fleeing after the bombing railroads 444 this afternoon had an article: https://kepek.444.hu/2022/03/05/dramai-kepeken-irpiny-evakualasa And fighting against refugees in “humanitarian corridors” you mentioned yourself later as well. So letting civilians go easily is definitely not the general rule, perhaps just possible by accident.
No, I wouldn’t think Ukraine could win in the traditional way by defeating the Russian army, but they can cause so much problems that it becomes too costly for the Russians that they can claim some great success (whatever this might be) and agree in an armistice. That Ukrainians already do their best to make it as costly for the Russians as possible since the very 1st day.
Selensky could be right – after Ukraine, it could be the turn of others. Just as Orbán did in Hungary, first subjugating journalists, then artists and actors, then teachers and universities, and finally the independent press. Putin is no longer logically comprehensible so also Orbán.
In German television there is an advertisement for free journalism. There Orbán is shown in a row with Putin, Lukashenko, Assad, Erdogan, Bolsenaro, and Mohammed bin Salman.
What does the world do if it goes on and everyone watches for fear of nuclear bombs?
Magyar Nemzet carried today this story https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2022/03/hazaarulas-miatt-agyonlohettek-az-ukran-targyalodelegacio-egyik-tagjat which is about a member of the Ukrainian delegation to the talks with the Russians, Denis Kirewev,, being shot for being a Russian agent. But not one word about the three assassination attempts against President Zelensky in the past week attempted by mercenaries of the Kremlin-backed Wagner group and Chechen special forces appeared in the paper.
I have little doubt that there could be Russian agents even in the delegation sent to talk with the Russians. What is interesting is that NATO, CIA, and Ukrainian intelligence has access to many of these plots. Putin being a former KGB officer understands the implications of all of this and one has to wonder how many Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) agents Putin will have shot before this war is over.
Orban’s regular interview on Kossuth radio on Friday had many bad things to say about both NATO and MZP. It is summarized in this Telex article (https://telex.hu/belfold/2022/03/04/orban-viktor-radios-nyilatkozat-2022-marcius-4-osszefoglalo).
The Russian opposition on line journal published in the West ran a long story on the repression that is coming down on Russian opponents to the war in Ukraine https://ridl.io/en/the-russian-world-of-crooked-mirrors/ .
I do think the issue of at least a tactical nuclear war with Russia is definitely a big factor in the the decision making of NATO so Don is correct. It also seems obvious that the collective assessment of western intelligence agencies is that Putin will order at least tactical nukes to be used against NATO forces if they cross into Ukraine. There are clearly people in Russia’s own security apparatus that believe this and apparently have related it to the west. Volodymyr Zelensky simply does not care about the risk of nuclear war and wants his nation to survive. But since if such a war breaks out there will be nothing much left of Ukraine, or Hungary for that matter.
The story about a member of the Ukrainian delegation to the talks with the Russians, Denis Kirewev, being shot for being a Russian agent came originally from Russia see https://www.rt.com/russia/551306-ukraine-negotiator-reported-killed/. Which makes sense this he was their agent. By the way here in the USA reading any Putin controlled media in either English or Russian is now difficult and is often blocked with error notices popping up. I was able to get around that to see what the Russians were saying about Denis Kirewev.
But of course the Russians never discuss the Russian assassination attempts against President Zelensky just like Magyar Nemzet.
The agreement between Russia and Ukraine on evacuating civilians from the besieged cities of Mariupol and Volnovakha has collapsed and the Russians have resumed artillery bombardment to reduce these cities according to the Red Cross.
RT is a propaganda sheet and frankly links are not necessarily true.
Then the advice is watch and wait where Putin stops because of the fear of nuclear bombs? Maybe, that is rather improbable, Putin wants to reach Portugal or only Poland. Let’s assume Hungary and/or another country are leveled to the ground and contaminated then the aggressor can’t live there either.
I am not sure if Putin will manage to take Ukraine completely. Ukrainians are fighting really brave and apparently smart. Fear has never been a good advisor …
… Magyar Nemzet writes possibly? 😀
Between Ukraine and the Western tip of Europe in Portugal there are a lot of NATO members. It is unavoidable that Russia will be in war with entire NATO including the USA if Putin attacks a NATO country, 4 of Ukraine’s neighbours belong to the alliance. Exactly here is the difference. Putin could have attacked Estonia instead of Ukraine. Or Turkey. Or the USA. But he didn’t, he is scared of NATO. This means Ukraine can make it as expensive for Putin as possible. Hopefully too expensive. Do you remember the mothers on the Plaza de Mayo in Buenos Aires protesting against the junta? How will the mothers of dead Russian soldiers react? What will the oligarchs say, the last days at least 2 yachts were confiscated in Italy and Germany – and this is just the beginning. And you forgot that Putin has a 5 times larger army than he right now has sent into Ukraine. And he has sent the older material, the new weapons Putin proudly presents to the press are not in combat. Perhaps these only exist for parades, who knows. But Russia is able to remove life from this planet. Dictators as Putin – if they have no escape – are more likely to kill themselves than to surrender. And an egomaniac as Putin might prefer to kill the entire mankind together with him. I have no access to intelligence information, but obviously those who have come to the same result as I do. Yes, give Ukrainians weapons to defend themselves. But avoid a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO, NATO members mustn’t shoot down Russian planes from the Ukrainian sky. It is all very unjust, I know, but as long as Putins exist on this world we can only try to limit the suffer they cause.
What´s about Putinpinschers?
Orbán allowing Putin to occupy Hungary?
Do we not already have the Putin system of right-wing white Christian oligarchs and the right of the stronger by Orbán the handmaiden of Putin.
That Orbán has copied the Putin system for a part is definitely not the same as a Russian invasion. I am not aware that Putin is bombing Budapest or Nyíregyháza or preparing to do so. Orbán’s close friendship to other dictators does not mean that we are in the same situation as Belarus is, Orbán’s ties to Saudi Arabia did not make him to impose Islam onto us, he still tries to impose some Orbánistic Christianity onto us. I am not aware that Putin would have asked Orbán for a common manoeuvre to attack Romania together thereafter. It is a good idea to differentiate a bit. Otherwise Hungary would be a perfect democracy, just because we will have a kind of elections soon and MZP is not imprisoned.
We can speculate. Unfortunately we have nothing that defines Putin’s territorial ambitions. That he has them in abundance is clear. We must use the time before he turns to another target to ready the West to confront him. This must happen the soonest.
If you … “” or we have nothing else how about opinion?
Unfortunately non of us have. Do you? That means that we cannot assume any clear limit. A clear limit might be one that pragmatically we could live with. But an undefined and potentially limitless territorial ambition we must confront. As soon as we can and ready
„“ Unfortunately non of us have. – Schizophrenia is a serious thing but those who have no answer are not one of us seen that way …
Don, I simply don’t understand what you are writing.
Putin has asked all former Russian countries to leave NATO and he claims these territories. Ergo, one must assume that he will attack other countries under the threat of nuclear escalation. He has also publicly stated that he only accepts military as reasonable interlocutors, civilians and politicians are drug addicted ppl. If Putin has not lied, we know where it is going.
That will take him past Berlin to the old iron curtain border. But why would he stop there?
For me as a German it is like 1956 when tanks arrived in Budapest – the whole world was watching and wanted to help – but everyone said we can’t if we don’t want a third world war. Today it is a little different but just as dangerous and Hungary is hiding behind fear.
I have to assume the CIA psychological profile of Putin provided to Biden indicated Russia would use tactical nukes on any NATO combat troops entering Ukraine. Biden began talking about WWIII if our forces and the Russians engaged in any level of combat well before Putin invaded Ukraine.
Putin’s psychological profile will be he starts a war and threatens with nuclear escalation, right? Until when do we keep still …
Daily military assessments from the “Institute of War”
https://www.understandingwar.org/who-we-are
At 3 PM EST = 10 PM Ukrainian time
https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian Operations Assessments Mar 5.pdf
https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian Operations Assessments Mar 4.pdf
etc
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNHpxvgWUAc0JJ1?format=jpg&name=large
Military situation at 10 AM Ukrainian time on March 6
(Ukrainian source)
Pravda (Russia)
The fight between USA+EU vs Russia
Which countries are still on Russia’s side ?
(i.e. do not fully support the sanctions against Russia)
Europe: [only] Serbia, Bosnia and Hungary.
China, India, Turkey
South Africa
Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba, Mexico
Syria, Egypt, United Arab Emirates
former Soviet states.
https://www.pravda.ru/news/world/1688172-protiv_rossii/