Well I don’t know if Kyiv is going to fall tomorrow, but it is obvious there is a lack of…
Orbán: Good Country where Good People live
This Orbán said in his “interview” on February 27th on state TV after the “interviewer” talked about the incredible help both government and people gave to the refugees from Ukraine.
Fact is that the Hungarian state doesn’t do anything, NGOs, individuals and local governments are left alone and are increasingly overburdened. The villages along the border organised shelter in private houses, which is relatively easy seen the enormous amount of vacant houses in the Hungarian countryside. They were able to provide help from the donations given by the people from all over the country. But as soon as things are needed that are not in the depots the local governments have to buy it on their own costs and as we might remember Orbán has in early days strictly limited the financial abilities and as corona help recently taken away the communal part of the road tax and reduced the communal business tax to the half of the original value. The free parking hit only the large cities of course, since the small villages have no parking spots to be paid for. A mayor from a village at the Ukrainian border is quoted with that they needed to buy adult diapers and prepare 3 meals a day on own costs. The district representative of the central government told this mayor to apply for restitution of these costs, he might get it – or not ►HU.
It is the city of Budapest, 300 km from the border, where officials offer help in a co-ordinated way. City officials. At the main railroad station where most trains from the North East of the country arrive in Budapest (strange enough this is the Nyugati pályaudvar) they changed a business premise into an assistance point for refugees from where every kind of help can be initiated ►picture. The city has already earlier opened a website where people can ask for help – and offer assistance. In Ukrainian, Hungarian, English ►EN, and Russian. At least refugees can travel for free on Hungarian railways, both the state owned and private ones ►EN. Also Budapest district politicians are complaining about the absence complete of the central government. Szilvia Temesvári (P), deputy mayor of Terézváros, said that there is not even a phone number available to get information ►HU. As today Budapest gives shelter to 1 500 refugees and the number of meals handed out to refugees has passed 10 000.
RTL reported that politicians have acted. Orbán just visited the area and looked how NGOs were offering help, met local FIDESZ officials and looked at (not after) refugees. Pictures with children made and done. The start made Péter Márki-Zay with his video how he gave some donations to refugees at the border. He spoke English and German to refugees, so these words were obviously not aimed at the Hungarian public. The Dobrev – Gyurcsány couple gives a home to 4 families from Ukraine. Katalin Cseh has travelled to Ukraine as reported earlier. Minister of justice Varga put some goods in the trunk of her car to bring them to the Caritas. She stated on facebook that she helped in preparing sandwiches as well. She also posted that she would give shelter to Hungarians from Ukraine. The dog party maintains an assistance point in a tent in front of the Budapest station with food, medicines, and clothes ►HU.
Both pictures from the RTL video, originating from the material posted by both politicians.
Already the press beyond borders cover the fact that the Hungarian state is “strangely absent.” Austrian Standard ►DE quotes a young woman from Budapest helping in Tiszabecs: “I was already standing at the Budapest Eastern Station in 2015, when we were helping the refugees from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan…. Here I only see the civil society, church organisations such as the Baptists, NGOs, or spontaneous volunteers. And the local governments are doing a bit as well…. But currently we are seeing next to nothing from civil protection authority or the military.”
Good people? Obviously yes, the entire anti refugee campaign of the past years seems to be forgotten and finally the people are doing the same as in 2015: Helping. Since the boss lifted the ideological ban it works. Good country? Hard to tell. But definitely a country with a terrible bad government. A government that shows how great it is when others do the job of the state. A government that declares movement of refugees is not valid for all refugees. Who has no biometric passport gets problems when passing the country. Who is no Ukrainian citizen is limited in movement as well, completely in opposite to the EU regulations. All this while the regime press is praising the central government for the help others give. Of course they only show Orbán’s handshakes at the border, not Márki-Zay bringing donations.
And to follow another topic: Russian propaganda on TV. Now not state TV, but privately owned Hír TV ►HU: This war was started by the American Empire! The same Empire that incited WWI and WWII! I have to admit that I am no historian, but I only see a single common initial American reaction onto all 3: We don’t want to fight in that war. Not even the staff of Hír TV was prepared to this “expert” and was unable to avoid laughing.
Voila, the “Council of Judges” (OBT) has already submitted to Orban's "reorganization" by the afternoon. https://obt-jud.hu/sites/default/files/ulesek/Osszefoglalo_2024.11.20.pdf
Putin's spokesman, Peskov: "Freezing the conflict in Ukraine [along the existing frontlines] is UNACCEPTABLE for Russia, it is important for…
According to the 2015 contract, Russia would build the the Paks-2 atomic power plant for 12.5 billion euros, from start…
Current US situation: https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/commercial-backyard-flocks
The government will only jump in when money from the EU comes that can be distributed in the NER.
Zsolt Semjén today in the Nemzet: “The Hungarian government is pro-peace, it follows from Christianity and the national interest”, ” Zsolt Semjén pointed out that human life is the most important thing, but it is important to see it among the economic issues: the Hungarian people cannot pay the price of war.”
At least they are consistent, the same principle was applied during the pandemic; human lives have to be sacrificed for faked economic numbers.
And it seems there is profit to expect in some way:
https://magyarnemzet.hu/gazdasag/2022/03/osszefogott-a-meszaros-csoport-es-az-opus-az-ukrajnai-menekultekert
In that case the regime should jump high, since Hungary is eligible for EU funds for refugees. The more refugees registered, the more the money. Still the state doesn’t move, as long as NGOs and local governments feed the refugees they have more money for the state – and the state needs the money for campaigning for the state party. And perhaps a few Forint also for refugees lodging in Lőrinc Pénztáros’ hotels.
Is there any credible evidence that this story is not the result of a Fidesz media stunt?: Russia-Ukraine conflict: Hungary to absorb Ghanaian students from Ukraine | Africanews
I did not see this before. So just as general comment: Orbán has made from studying – especially medicine – a big business. If he can earn money with this it might be true. One mustn’t forget that Orbán never turned against foreigners leaving money, he only turned against refugees passing through.
As I read it, the repatriation of the Ghanaian students is paid by the Ghanaian Students Organization and the Ghanaian government! As of March 7, only 39 Ghanaians out of 900 were still in Ukraine.
https://www.voanews.com/a/ghanaian-students-say-flight-from-ukraine-hampered-by-discrimination-/6473430.html
Of course Magyar Nemzet says Hungary is doing just great on the refugee issue see https://magyarnemzet.hu/belfold/2022/03/migracios-szervezet-a-magyar-hatosagok-hibatlanul-kezelik-a-helyzetet. Here is how it is described “the authorities are handling the situation flawlessly and that both the civil sector and individuals are working passionately for refugees.”
Magyarország jobban tejlesít!
I also heard some “news” on the radio that Hungary shouldn’t have to pay the price for other people’s wars, which sounds very nice in theory (though in practice everyone will pay), but the forint reached a low point of 400 against the euro a couple of days ago.
Can you see Putin coming out of this war intact, in power and ready to invade somewhere else? I know it’s difficult to make predictions (and I didn’t believe he would invade Ukraine), but I feel like the end of his presidency is near…
I tell you; the Butcher is smelling money.
https://nepszava.hu/3149310_europai-unio-forrasok-menekultek-haboru-ukrajna
Of course one aspect of aiding refugees is creating security and safe passage for them in border areas. In Poland part of that cost has been picked up by the USA where there is a full contingent of the US Army’s 82nd Airborne now complete with field medical units, air defense systems, and civil affairs personnel, including my own daughter.
As all of us know Hungary under PM Orban has largely opposed having additional NATO support at the border arguing it can adequately protect itself and did not move any additional contingents of the Hungarian armed forces to reinforce the Ukrainian border until Putin made his move. The 82nd Airborne had been in place in Poland since February 9 when my daughter sent me a photo of her getting off the plane in full combat gear in Poland leading a civil affairs contingent. Orban lives in total terror of making Putin angry at Hungary and clearly wants him to think Hungary is something of a Trojan horse inside of NATO, while wanting NATO to believe Hungary is a loyal member of NATO.
The USA just approved in Congress sending about $13.6 billion to Ukraine, with roughly half of that for humanitarian and economic aid, and the other half for defense in Ukraine as well as in U.S. allies in the Baltics and Central and Eastern Europe. When this is discussed in the US major broadcast media it is always discussed in terms of aid to the front line states in the Baltics, Poland, and Romania, Hungary is rarely ever mentioned it is like the black hole.
I agree with the post today that there are some parallels to the USA isolationist policy at the start of WWII. One of the more amazing aspects of that comparison is that during the start of WWII the USA was very concerned about the Asian threat then the Japanese empire, which was of course also correct. Today we are going into the Ukraine conflict in a situation of looking at China in a similar way as we did in Japan during the early stages of the European war.
There is another comparison to be made, and that is how the US involvement in WWI in Europe was viewed. The US lost 116,516 military personnel to deats and approximately 320,000 sick and wounded of the 4.7 million largely men who served in that war. The USA lost more personnel to disease (63,114) than to combat (53,402), largely due to the influenza epidemic of 1918. None the less it was shocking over here, my grandfather and great uncle were considered during that war to actually be enemy citizens due to their being Austro-Hungarians and they sat it out. Even though they were trained in warfare from childhood and had been in the Austro-Hungarian army prior to WWI.
It was generally believed over here that WWI which was sold over here as the “war to ent all wars,” was totally useless in terms of US interests and the US as a nation gained nothing out of WWI. President Roosevelt had great difficultly moving public opinion towards entering WWII and if it had not been for the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor he in fact may have not have been able to do so.
Meanwhile the US American Hungarian Federation has not written one word about Orban not wanting US NATO troops in Hungary and his policy of blocking all military arms shipments into Ukraine. If you go to AHF website you will see only this article relating to Ukraine titled “Appeal to Help
Hungarian Victims of the Russian-Ukraine War.” That article emphasizes “Many families of Hungarian descent have lost their parent(s) and/or are in dire need of help.” (http://americanhungarianfederation.org/) The AHF was incredibly proud of Hungary becoming part of NATO when it happened, it also lauded those children of American Hungarians who served and fought in Vietnam. Now of course it is silent about Orban selling his soul to Putin. After all Orban filters funding into cultural events sponsored by AHF and it would not like to see any problems in the area.
This Guardian article https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/09/clash-over-poland-and-us-missile-plans-reveals-tensions-in-escalating-war?fr=operanews discusses the MiG 29 blow up that happened yesterday in some detail. The basic elements of this story were out last night and it became a huge topic on blogs populated by retired military officers. I will not discuss how this debate broke down in great detail, but there were many divisions among retired officers including different takes on this issue by retired US Air Force Officers, and US Army officers.
There was also a large group of retired officers who believed it might be inevitable that US forces and Russian forces get into a shooting war and it makes little difference if Putin claims US provoked this or not in long run. By the way there is a small group of hard core cold war warriors who want to take on Putin very aggressively.
I found myself arguing in these exchanges that having Poles fly from a US NATO base into Ukraine with the aging MiGs and attempt to support Ukrainian forces on the ground will face massive fire from mobile Russian anti-aircraft missile batteries and the attrition rate will be incredible. I have no doubt these brave pilots will be praised by Zelenskiy after they are dead, but I indicated Ukraine would not achieve air superiority over the Russians with these MiGs. I think a better option would be supplying longer range ground to ground missiles to the Ukrainians to take out Russian artillery and missile batteries that are attacking civilian areas. On the tactical (battlefield) level, this could involve providing Ukrainians with US made M109A7 Paladin, the latest upgraded variant of a twenty-seven-ton 155-millimeter self-propelled howitzer in service since the 1960s equipped with gps guided shells that we have in our arsenals. (see https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/02/m109a7-paladin-the-us-armys-big-gun-built-to-fight-russia-or-china/ )
I doubt the option I proposed will in any way prevent Putin from claiming the USA is provoking WWIII, there is no question NATO is now of the razor edge of direct conflict with Russia. There is also no question that the debate going on between MZP and Orban about military aid to Ukraine does not really address where all this is going and that Hungary could possibly end up in direct military conflict with Russia as part of NATO whether it wants to or not. That potential conflict does not rest on Hungary shipping ammo across the border, it rests on things playing out at a strategic level between the USA and Russia.
Thanks for the analysis. Most European military commentators that I see on news here, tend to agree on the likelyhood of a longer guerilla war, now that the Russian offensive isn’t gaining ground at the expected rate, and for that purpose mobile artillery and longer range missiles would certainly serve Ukrainian purposes well, without directly involving US troops.
But the possibility of more direct confrontation at sea, might be something to prepare for. Russia will, at some point, need to bring in supplies and trade from overseas (China/North Korea?), and while Nato are fully capable of controlling access from the Black sea to the Mediterrainean as well as from the Baltic to the North sea, the Northern Passages look like their safest routes for bringing in larger shipments. In that scenario, the US Navy, Japan and Canada would be left with the task of holding the Japanese Sea and the Bering Strait under control.
Do the retired officers have any views on that possibility?
That discussion did not take place but it is pretty clear logistically that the USA could quickly ship over M109A7 Paladins using Lockheed Martin’s C-5M Super Galaxy transports based on weight they could carry over two at a time. Of course Orban would not allow them to land in Hungary out of fear of Putin.
My understanding also is there are three dozen M109A7 Paladins in Europe as part of the 405th US Army Field Support Brigade’s Army Field Support Battalion-Mannheim. I assume they would want replacements immediately if any were given to the Ukrainians. The more advance shells I suspect are already in Germany. Because they would have to be transported from NATO nations by either road or train to the Battle field it would require supplying additional anti-aircraft systems to travel with them assuming the Russians would attack the shipment. But there are Ukrainian crews for those systems who seem very skilled.
Here is a photo of the M109A7 Paladins arriving in Germany a year ago.
I like your input. Not actually because of the detail, but because it shows that the US is still with us.
The Ukrainian Antonov Airlines operate a few AN-124 freighters in EU airspace. They would probably be available for the job too.
Thanks Istvan for the military oriented analysis.
This NY Times article appeared about an hour ago https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/09/world/europe/just-put-the-body-outside-the-bloody-siege-of-mariupol.html. It sounds like Stalingrad where about 1.5 million died including at least 105,000 Hungarian soldiers. I do understand the call by the Mayor of Mariupol for NATO to impose a no fly zone, I am also unclear about how many are being killed by Russian artillery and ground launched missiles. I have even read stories about Russian navy shelling from the of the Sea of Azov. It is a nightmare.
There is a lot of talk about “indiscriminate” Russian artillery fire in the Western media. I do not agree the Russians have advanced targeting systems for artillery. In late May 2020, the Russian Armed Forces received its first shipment of upgraded Russian artillery systems – the ‘Koalitsiya-SV’. The deviation radius of the Koalitsiya is about one-two meters,” according to professor Vadim Kozyulin of the Russian Academy of Military Science. He says. “Operating at a 70 km range, the weapon resembles a sniper rifle. Just as precise and deadly.” (See https://www.rbth.com/science-and-tech/332390-russian-artillery-system)
Not all Russian artillery is that accurate but the Russians can hit reasonably accurately. So what is happening in Mariupol is actually a war crime.
The USA is sending two Patriot surface-to-air missile batteries to Poland — a move U.S. European Command said would “proactively” counter “any potential threat” to U.S. and NATO forces in the alliance’s territory. Also today the Dutch defense ministry says it is working with Germany to station Patriot surface-to-air missiles in Slovakia at the request of NATO.
I have to assume NATO is preparing for a Russian air assault on front line NATO states. Orban seems confident his friend Putin will not attack, or the 14 Saab Fighter jets Hungary has are more than enough to fight off the Russians if they do.
Since Putin recently claimed that he aims to target an allegedly US-financed chemical weapons industry in Ukraine, there is official concern in Europe about pretext for possible Russian use of chemical weapons in or around Ukraine.
Hungary has become the EU home of Kremlin talking points
https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-war-narrative-hungary-disinformation/
off topic (slightly): Does anyone know of good Hungarian charities that are working in Ukraine to help local people?
I just made a small donation to Ökumenikus Segélyszervezet, and then shortly after noticed that the president of the organisation is Lévai Anikó, wife of the current Prime Minister, so am worried that my donation will not reach the intended place…
I trust this organisation. They are going to the people.
https://www.maltai.hu/
I’m sure many of you already know this source and it might have been posted here already, but here is a useful source of information on what is happening in Ukraine: https://kyivindependent.com
OT – Wholesale fuel prices are rising brutally, with huge queues at gas stations. At Hungarian gas stations octane 95 gasoline should cost 640 FT and diesel should cost 717 Ft. The regime aka government has capped the retail and wholesale price to 480 Ft.. There are major supply problems as a result some gas stations will not be supplied again until March 24. Other gas stations limit the maximum delivery to 5 liters at Mol gas stations the maximum delivery is 100 liters.
https://hang.hu/gazdasag/brutalisan-emelkedik-az-uzemanyagok-nagykereskedelmi-ara-komoly-ellatasi-problemak-johetnek-138024