Well I don’t know if Kyiv is going to fall tomorrow, but it is obvious there is a lack of…
Giertych: This is Orbán’s Plan
First I want to introduce with a few words Roman Giertych, a Polish politician. Deputy PM and minister of education in the PiS lead coalition governments under the PMs Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz and Jarosław Kaczyński, chairman of LPR, the League of Polish Families, an extremely nationalist and anti-EU party from the far right, who in 2007 suggested a law to ban of homosexuals being teachers (failed.) Giertych stood ideologically close to Orbán, but through the years went on distance to his former points of view and his party, worked as lawyer in cases against the Polish government as well, and has been spied on in the Pegasus affair.
Now Giertych has published a plan on facebook, he calls the Orbán Plan ►PL (automatic translations available.) There have been rumours about such a plan before, but this is the 1st time as far as I am aware someone has reported that Orbán himself would have talked about it. This is reported to have been happened in 2011, a year Viktor Yanukovych was president, a very Russian-friendly politician, who 11 years ago wanted to approach the EU as well. In that time Giertych reports Orbán and he were guests on a conference organised by the archbishop of Vienna, cardinal Christoph Schönborn and took place nearby Rome. This is possible, Orbán regularly takes place in the ICLN happenings, the far right politicans connection to the catholic church created by Schönborn. Last year Orbán took place, but refused to see the pope and visited the neo-fascist leader Giorgia Meloni instead. Orbán back in 2011 talked to Giertych and explained according to the latter how to reorganise the world, how he wanted to destroy the EU with Polish help, and to destroy Ukraine.
According to Giertych Orbán already in 2011 talked about a Russian war against Ukraine!
This “Orbán Plan” should start with Russians conquering those parts of Ukraine that are inhabited by Russian speaking Ukrainians. Expected was a fast occupation of all the area in the East of the river Dnieper and the fall of the Ukrainian government. The Western parts of Ukraine should be set under patronage of Poland with the exception of Transcarpathia, which should come under Hungarian rule. He points out that Ukraine, when asking for help from NATO, Poland and Hungary could send “peacekeepers” up to the new borders agreed with Putin. Giertych clearly describes the consequences if Kaczyński would have arrived as “liberator” in Lviv, clearly similar reactions we might expect among the ethnic Hungarians living in Ukraine for Orbán’s “protection.” Of course expecting that they would stay in power forever.
Giertych puts that many unexplainable things happening suddenly would make sense in this context. The efforts in destroying the EU from inside and pushing the far right in countries as France as well. From secret talks between Orbán and Kaczyński to the intensive meetings of the extreme right in Warsaw and Madrid, from where Orbán went to Moscow to see Putin for a very long meeting just to announce some economic co-operations – including a logistic centre to be erected at Hungarian – Ukrainian border, and that talks over even more gas purchases would take place in April after already a few months ago a new agreement has been closed. From Polish army concentrated in the East of the country regarding refugees arriving from Belarus to initial Polish reluctance to react on Putin’s war. Only the outcry in Poland’s population made the government act and regarding the heavy fighting of Ukraine against the invaders made Poland turn around for 180 degrees.
444 took a closer look to the reporting of Giertych and his interpretations and compared this to facts ►HU. Of course they can’t prove what has been talked about behind closed doors, they can’t verify that the conservation between Orbán and Giertych as taken place and if so what they talked about. But there are embarrassing facts.
- Vladimir Zhirinovsky, vice president of the Russian Duma called in 2014, in the aftermath of the annexation of Crimea, the governments of Poland, Romania, and Hungary to divide the Ukrainian state. Later he stated that Transcarpathia wouldn’t be part of Ukraine, but of Hungary.
- After the 2014 elections Orbán called attention to Transcarpathia in his inaugural speech. That called even a reaction of those days PM of Poland, Donald Tusk, who told that Orbán’s words tearing Ukraine apart should cause concerns. He, in that time in the same European party together with FIDESZ, accused Orbán in spreading Russian propaganda. Again, that was in 2014.
- András Simonyi, once Hungarian ambassador in Washington said in October that year about Orbán and his ties to Russia: “I suspect that there is a lot going on here. There are also unrealistic dreams about bringing us a favourable result, in case that Ukraine will be divided by the Russians and Transcarpathia falls into our lap. It won’t. But sadly and defensively we would be left alone, putting the Hungarians in Transcarpathia in a much worse position than they are now”
- Former Polish Foreign Minister Radislaw Sikorski declared that the Polish have been offered already in 2008 to Tusk a division of Ukraine and especially Lviv would have become Polish. Sikorski later said that it might have been another year and another politician. However, Giertych mentioned that Tusk not even wanted to joke about dividing Ukraine.
- 444 quoted Orbán’s infamous speech presenting the concept of illiberalism. He promised a new area and said: “So instead of fear, intrusion and retreat, I suggest courage, forward thinking, sensible but courageous action to the Hungarian community in the Carpathian Basin.” Does that mean that he wants a piece of the cake called Ukraine?
Yes, Putin’s war doesn’t work as many have thought. Does only this bad military performance prevent Hungary from being so much on the wrong side of history again to conquer parts of a neighbour? Giertych says so. It would not surprise me, but it is my principle to expect from Orbán the worst and I am again and again surprised how much he can top that. Right now we have a couple of imputations and a witness only.
Voila, the “Council of Judges” (OBT) has already submitted to Orban's "reorganization" by the afternoon. https://obt-jud.hu/sites/default/files/ulesek/Osszefoglalo_2024.11.20.pdf
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I agree 444 can not as our host states “can’t prove what has been talked about behind closed doors, they can’t verify that the conservation between Orbán and Giertych as taken place and if so what they talked about.” But there are many additional problems. Roman Giertych, the former deputy prime minister of Poland, has not be able to produce any documentation of the secret Hungarian-Polish-Russian plan to divide Ukraine. All there is this facebook post https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=514701036889190&id=100050478939975 . I read it via google since I can’t read Polish. There are limited plausible aspects to it, and there are aspects that seem to me to be not plausible. Would Orban like to get this land back into Hungary, there is no doubt about that I believe.
Here is Giertych’s conclusion as translated by google: “There is only one conclusion: we were prepared to betray the century. And only the victory of Ukraine, the indignation of Western public opinion and the scale of this indignation related to heroic resistance and the unification of the entire West prevented this betrayal. Let me remind you that Putin’s plan assumed: a quick capture of Kiev, very little loss of the civilian population and a divided west with rickety sanctions. None of this has worked out. If the military operation were successful, Orban’s plan could absolutely be realized. And Kaczyński would triumphantly take over Lviv and, as the savior of Ukrainians and the resurrection of Poland’s power, he could count on absolute rule.
They failed. Thank God and glory to Ukraine!”
Actually this claim is wrong because Poland desperately wanted US combat troops sent into Poland well before it became clear that the Russians would not easily be able to take over Ukraine. Moreover for years now US forces have been in Poland in a training role especially special forces trainers. The CIA I have no doubt has been very active in Poland and would have know about any such secret deals with Putin to divide up Ukraine. If Trump had been informed of these secret deals and looked the other way, it for sure would have been leaked by now since so much else has been.
My daughter who is a US Army officer now at a base apparently within one mile of the Ukrainian border, based on a video made for a local US TV outlet from the home town of the 82nd Airborne, and has been there since February 8 as have thousands of other US troops. If the PiS government was planning on going into Ukraine jointly with Hungary they would not have wanted US troops on the border, a full attack helicopter battalion there, and apparently armor transferred from Germany because there is no question as nation the USA and formally NATO support the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Now I also assume if the CIA knew about this story which I am sure they did, they would have looked carefully at it and checked with their own agents in Russia that have obviously penetrated Russian security operations based on the information the USA had on the Russian invasion weeks prior to it that was made public.
I also believe if the CIA/NSA had evidence that Orban was making such a deal with Putin they would consider having him eliminated one way or another and replaced with another character in Fidesz if at all possible. Really only the most pro-Russian elements in Fidesz raised that possibility in Fidesz controlled media outlets prior to the invasion after Trump lost the election in the USA. There was a public hearing of the US House of Representatives committee on security about a week ago, and there was also a classified meeting that was not public. That classified session was actually held in a bomb proof room in the basement of the Capitol building where member of Congress hide during the Jan 6 insurrection. I watched the public session. What was clear the members of the House on that committee praised US pre-war penetration of Russian security services and its military operations without giving out what they knew. By the fact that Putin is purging the FSB based on numerous reports he knows much of his prewar planning was known to the CIA. The CIA and US intelligence did an outstanding job in this case, which has not always been true as was evident in Afghanistan and going the way back to my Vietnam days.
Part of the Facebook post that supposedly was evidence of this plot was that Salvini wore a Putin teeshirt at a meeting of the rightwing leaders Orban attended. Really?
No, this was part to prove he is pro-Putin.
I do not agree, it is part of the total evidence he presents for the Orban plot. I will also say this, I provided the google English translation of the Polish Facebook post to several retired US Army intelligence officers. One said it is hard to believe Orban would have been directly plotting with Putin, another said Putin may have actually offered him this deal. In turn Orban provided this information to the USA to cover his own ass.
He went further saying the CIA would have wanted Orban to find out even more from the Russians. Now this retired Military intel officer definitely worked in the NATO command and is knowledgeable. So this is indeed yet another angle on this story.
“Why invite Salvini, who was wearing a Putin T-shirt, if you want to fight Putin.” It just says that Salvini was pro-Puntin. And yes, that everybody knew so. His admiration for Putin I knew before Salvini was spotted in Moscow with that shirt. All in a paragraph about US investment, EU, and ignoring ECJ judgements “if not knowing about the total geopolitical shift that will come next?” Le Pen’s Russian debt, Salvini’s shirt, and Orbáns travels to Putin as pointing out their closeness. And that Kaczyński did no effort to get on distance, but searched their closeness despite their openly shown love for Putin. This is the central point, not what Salvini was wearing. And who spoke what at what moment, who was messenger and who developed this plan is not said at all. Just that the 2011 clearly lower ranked Giertych was informed by Orbán.
Tell me, what would US troops in Poland do if Poland would follow a call of whatever officials for peacekeepers from Poland? What would they do if Lviv and some other districts would want to become Polish according to the Crimean example? And that Poland does not trust Putin doesn’t mean that they wouldn’t be open for ugly deals with him. History is full of examples that the least likely partners found together. This all is as much a proof to claim that Giertych is right as to claim he is wrong. Especially Orbán’s behaviour hints a lot into that direction, regardless what the Polish do now. We don’t know what happened, but it is seen the circumstances at least remarkable enough to think about.
Under the existing Biden administration perspective it would have to be approved by NATO because it would become NATO territory. The USA would then have treaty obligations to defend that land. It would be opposed by NATO.
There are also long standing NATO rules against territorial expansion. Poland wants NATO protection as is obvious. The county lives in the shadow of the Hitler Stalin pact against their country and Putin is largely hated from what I can see.
When Germany expanded to include East Germany it was formally recognized by NATO. See https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2022/feb/28/candace-owens/fact-checking-claims-nato-us-broke-agreement-again/ I believe the a similar situation would apply to Poland incorporating any part of existing Ukraine or Hungary doing the same.
I would have said Poland and Hungary might risk suspension from NATO. But wouldn’t it a political set to combine aspirations with the security of the presence of US troops? This wouldn’t be a contradiction at all. And you forgot the other half when commenting the Hitler – Stalin Pact. The Eastern half of Poland the Soviet Union occupied is today situated in Belarus and Ukraine. That the nationalism of FIDESZ is always dreaming about Hungary before WWI we take for granted. But concerning PiS and the territories lost in WWII we expect not to think like that? In Germany Kohl was at the point to be defeated in 1990. By unifying the country he doubled the number of his terms. Wouldn’t Orbán or Kaczyński take this as example for their own future?
I read the story that Orbán wants to share Ukraine with Putin a few years ago. Unfortunately, it was only hearsay, so I did not take it seriously. But the policy of Orbán reminded again and again of this story, which fits Orbán. What I remember the source came from a politician from Chechei Slovakia or Poland. Probably Giertych is not the only one who listened to Orban’s wet dreams.
You’re right Don, it came up several times, but as far as I know never from someone who once was a high placed governmental official and never from someone who said when and where Orbán himself told him. This makes it different.
„This makes it different.“ basically not, …
Orbán’s policy with Ukraine and other coveted neighbors confirmed exactly this information. Putin’s friend the Putin Pinscher has been bullying Ukraine with Putin’s help for a long time. Pester Lloyd alone has 136 articles about it – that is a lot.
… but for one or the other who is not well informed, maybe it is.
Don, here you miss the point completely. Orbán’s policies concerning Ukraine have been those of a bad neighbour. He did not want to sit in the same club (be it EU or NATO) and he did not want to be friendly at all. Well-known facts and proven – and I did not write about this, as you can re-read and in the end I agreed with you about what you said earlier. Being unfriendly is definitely not the same as plans to divide another country to enlarge the own country. Here we had rumours from unknown sources up to now (exactly this was your earlier point I confirmed.) A former vice PM wrote now a piece about what Orbán suggested to him concerning dividing Ukraine. Having now a traceable statement definitely means having a different quality. Imagine there would be a trial against Orbán in Den Haag about his involvement in Ukraine. A prosecutor telling the judges “we had rumours through the years” is not relevant at all, but hearing a witness who is able to say where at what occasion Orbán told him and so on can be used to determine what happened. The world is not either white or black. And even Putin and Orbán find ways to turn darker and darker.
We may be talking past each other, but I have written several times now that Ukraine is an enemy for Orbán.
Fully agree, in many cases OV seems capable to top one’s most negative expectations, it’s almost impossible to be prepared for OV’s worst!
Also I remember that our dear former host Eva wrote several times in her posts or comments that OV was eying Transcarpathia or maybe even promised already to OV by his boss Putin.
And about exceeding [worst] expectations:
–Rákosi was considered Stalin’s best pupil/disciple.
–When can OV be considered Putin’s best one?
I would recommend reading the Facebook post I have linked that is the basis for this entire theory.
Istvan the point here is not any sort of theory, but
the reality/experience of OV exceeding one’s [worst] expectations
Also I recommend all living in Hungary, or those since 2010 from abroad continuous closely following what’s happening in Hungary under myghti lidur OV, to go back in their mind to 2010, really getting the situation then clear and when succeeding jump forward into now. If done successful I expect most to be deeply shocked.
For me I experienced that shock when after leaving Hungary and having for more than 5 years only followed all things Hungary from a distance, and then being fully shocked when visiting Budapest late 2016.August and seeing all those horrible billboards all over the city for OV’s anti-refugee-quota referendum.
This shock activated me in closely following Hungarian matters; and ultimately getting seriously involved in trying to derail OV&Co and getting Hungary back on a real democratic track.
Roman Giertych is described as an ultra-nationalist politician. Sometime after 2007, Giertych dropped out of politics. As a successful lawyer, he attracted significant clients. Among them, Poland’s ex-Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski and his wife, publicist Anne Applebaum and Donald Tusk. So is Austrian Gerald Birgfellner, who accuses PiS party leader Jarosław Kaczyński of fraud and corruption. Poland’s prosecutor’s office, which is headed by a PiS politician, has not yet brought charges against the PiS leader. Roman Giertych was arrested, the official charge is embezzlement and money laundering. Numerous files have been seized. I could not read whether the plaintiff’s files on Jarosław Kaczyński were seized. I think there is still a lot of digging to do, including the question of what was the reason for Giertych to out Orban’s plans.
Well, this is fascinating stuff. However, instead of worrying about whether such a deal was made, we should take time to consider whether, if made, it might be capable of being implemented? I can see obvious obstacles. These are set out by Istvan from Chicago. There may also be some others. However, Lviv was previously called Lamberg and is a late addition to the territory of the Soviet Union. As for Transkarpathia, never part of mother Russia until after WW2.
As for Poland such territorial annexation at this time might cause difficulties within both NATO and the EU. However I doubt if it would be fatal in either Poland’s or in Hungary’s case if the suggested arrangement was described as temporary and essential to secure peace in the region. Please remember that the national borders in the region have been pretty fluid for some time, until recently.
Lviv was Lemberg when it was part of Austria. Past WWI that very Northern part of the Empire came to Poland, while Transcarpathia came to Czechoslovakia. Lviv was conquered by Stalin from Poland in 1939, Transcarpathia was seized by USSR at the end of WWII. This was the end of moving borders up and down in Central Europe if you don’t count peaceful agreements about minor territory exchanges, as recently between France and Switzerland for practical reasons. There are no rules within the EU effectively to prohibit members to enlarge their territory. NATO could suspend members, EU can’t. Parts of countries not qualifying as EU areas we have already today, with Northern Ireland being exactly the opposite as part of the custom’s union as well. I’d say largest obstacle is that Ukraine doesn’t want, while I’d wish to say it should be that Hungary and Poland should respect the existing borders.
…. and today Poland started to talk about introducing “peacekeeping” troops that would not get into fight with Russian troops.
This is exactly the “Orban;s” , i.e. Putin’s plan – the dismemberment of Ukraine.
The US reiterated that it would not send US troops in Ukraine.
Have they said what the purpose might be since Poland has an army. Introducing them where? NATO troops crossing into Ukraine, whether peacekeeping or otherwise, would represent a huge escalation and deep concerns in NATO. Please could you post link to the item.
If you translate Giertych’s remarks from Polish, you understand that this was Putin’s original idea. Satisfy Kaczinsky’s Poland with western Ukraine and Orban with Carpatho Ukraine.
Thanks. I was really trying to get to the news of a proposed Polish peacekeeping force.
https://notesfrompoland.com/2022/03/18/poland-to-call-for-peacekeeping-mission-in-ukraine-at-nato-summit/
Thanks.
This proposal can hardly be given the construction given it by Tappanch. It is intended to operate entirely within NATO where it is getting no serious support. Poland could not go it alone and if, contrary to the evidence, it became a NATO move no risk of dividing up Ukraine because that is not EU or NATO policy.
I regard the Polish government acting way more thoughtful and decently compared to Orbán. But not the slightest bit less more decisive concerning whatever they want for changing the country as they would like it. Not in aim, not in extremism, but in style. Kindly asking for something they don’t even want when they know for sure the answer will be no is nothing for the brutal way an Orbán prefers. However, a great excuse for doing it alone. And: Who said they can’t? If Giertych is right there wouldn’t be any risk.
https://444.hu/2022/03/21/szijjarto-szerint-uj-dimenzioba-leptunk-a-haborus-kockazatok-tekinteteben
The Ukrainian view of their historical territorial growth without a state
https://www.quora.com/How-did-Ukraine-and-Ukrainian-ethnicity-become-as-big-as-France-if-it-never-been-an-empire-who-colonized-many-others
A possibly pro-Russian simplification of the growth of the Ukrainian state:
https://qph.cf2.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-b8d23647e4bc1fe0b3d1fbaa0bf6b097-c
Borders keep shifting over time. Hungary knows this all too well.