It doesn't seem hard to find a fitting label for the people you mention. How about "Western League For Demolition…
July 1st, 2022
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The public display of Trump's "dirty underwear" is a source of entertainment for all who oppose him. But also a…
Maybe he hopes to steal Brussel's cruiser and head out for Atlantis.
I know it is insulting to Asterix the Gaul, but the Viktor thinks he is like Asterix. Viktor Orbán: While…
Now this was a curious article https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2022/07/szijjarto-a-paksi-bovites-szeptemberben-atlephet-a-masodik-konkret-epitkezesi-fazisba . Its about a meeting between Péter Szijjártó and the CEO of Rosatom Alexey Likhachev that took place on May 5, 2022 according to the Paks II project website but was announced only today in Magar Nemzet. Since the Russian-Hungarian intergovernmental agreement of 14 January 2014. there have been changes to the time table for the original deal and this meeting held in Istanbul created yet another “megállapodásnak.” (agreement). There is no link in the article relating to this new agreement and it is totally not clear what additional modification were made to the 2014 agreement.
Here are the quotes from Szijjártó the appeared in this article: “– If everything comes together in accordance with today’s agreement, then it is completely realistic that the Paks nuclear power plant investment will enter the second, construction phase in September.” But what is everything does not come together I wonder?
“Hungary is taking a huge step towards self-sufficiency in the field of electricity, and this will be a huge advantage for Hungary in the current situation, when prices are rising completely irrationally on the international energy market.”
“We are interested in the nuclear power plant being built by 2030, there is still a realistic chance for this, the Hungarian government is committed to continuing the investment.”
From 2017 until possibly today (see https://www.paks2.hu/web/paks-2-en/organisational-structure) István Lenkei has run Paks II zrt as its CEO, if one goes to István Lenke’s linked in page he is no longer listed as leading Paks II zrt, but holding a unknown position with a construction firm ZsiLen-21 Kft located in Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén County in Northern Hungary.
The Magyar Nemzet article states: “Finally, the Minister of Foreign Affairs announced that Gergely Jákli, the former CEO of Eximbank, will take over Paks II from September 1. Zrt. company management.” Interestingly no reason is given for the change in leadership of the Paks II project. It is completely unclear who currently is running the Paks II project up to September 1, 2022.
I think it could be a financing issue. The Russian bank that was meant to be involved in financing the expansion of the plant was included on the list of EU sanctions and banned from operating in the EU, so they’re probably working out how they can get around the sanctions without attracting the attention of the international community…
This article https://telex.hu/direkt36/2022/06/21/szijjarto-felporgetne-paks-ii-megepiteset-a-sullyedo-talaj-azonban-megakadalyozhatja-ezt raises many additional issues about the Paks II project and is well work reading. Including this amazing passage: “Geologists invited by the Austrian environmental protection authority prepared a study last spring, which concluded that Paks II. its site as a whole is not suitable for construction due to earthquake safety reasons. Due to the findings of this study, the Austrian government requested a personal consultation from the Hungarian side.
This took place on February 15 at the OAH headquarters in Óbuda, the discussion took place with the participation of experts from the Austrian and Hungarian sides. The OAH shared several details about the meeting on its website, including the following: they still think that “the selected site is suitable for the establishment of new blocks”. So while OAH had concerns about building on the fault line, it still insisted the site was suitable.”
The school year gets to an end here in Hungary, and it seems many teachers waited for this moment to write their letter of resignation. They have a period of two months before they are out, so when schools start in September there will be some less teachers again.
https://nepszava.hu/3161961_oktatas-felmondas-tanarhiany-tiltakozas-pilisborosjeno
The Pinter is “rationalizing” as he calls it, less schools will open their doors I guess in September.
https://hvg.hu/360/20220621_pinter_tanar_oktatas_kasler
https://telex.hu/belfold/2022/06/21/pinter-sandor-oktatas-atalakitasi-terv
In the meantime, the teachers can try to find jobs at for example ALDI who is increasing the wages, like some other big foreign companies.
https://hvg.hu/gazdasag/20220630_Rendkivuli_evkozi_beremeles_819kal_noveli_bereit_az_ALDI
Teachers are leaving the profession here in the USA in droves too, due to the failure of their pay to keep up anywhere near the rate of inflation. see https://www.edweek.org/teaching-learning/teacher-salaries-arent-keeping-up-with-inflation-see-how-your-state-compares/2022/04
I just thought some Hungarian news would fit here.
Are the schools also closing everywhere in the US, are the teachers also robbed from their rights in the US? Is ALDI also paying better than teachers are paid in the US?
It is not necessary in my opinion to jump on this disturbing news from Hungary to compare it to the US. It is bad enough as it is.
Aldi is largely non-unionized at least here in the Midwest so they definitely pay less than most public school teachers are paid.
I am done here, sziasztok.
Aldi are infamous for underpaying staff in Europe, but if they keep themselves within the proposed Euro-minimum”, they could possibly be ahead of Hungarian teachers’ wages.
Thanks, Istvan!
There’s agraph there that shows that repug controlled states offer the lowest salaries, Florida and Texas among them of course.
Is that a coincidence?
Mississippi is the lowest!
The Kiev Independent today had this story on its website; “Brigadier General of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksii Hromov said at a press conference on June 30 that Russia has used inaccurate missiles from old Soviet stocks for more than 50 percent of its attacks in Ukraine and the rate of the attacks has more than doubled in the last two weeks and stands at 202 missiles. “[Russia’s] targets remain military facilities, critical infrastructure and industry, transport networks. At the same time, the civilian population is suffering significant losses due to [poorly targeted] strikes,” Hromov said.”
But the Kyiv Independent ran a story 3 days ago quoting Zelensky as stating a Russian attack on a shopping mall in Kremenchuk that killed shoppers was intentional and in fact a war crime. President Zelensky gave no reason for why he believed the attack was intentional. It appears General Oleksii Hromov has some questions about the accuracy of Russian missiles that raise real questions about what Zelensky stated three days ago. I indicated I had problems with Zelensky’s claim in a post to this blog about the mall attack and questioned the accuracy of Russian missile attacks. Of course Russia will never own up to this, just like the USA did not own up to our own mistakes made over the wrong targets being hit in Afghanistan repeatedly until well after the fact. The out of control collateral damage to civilians in Ukraine is horrendous being done by Russians, but that is the case in most wars.
Hope you all are managing the current Kánikula (heatwave)!
For all who can read German:
https://www.facebook.com/UngarnHeute
That is a “nice” mix of Fidesz propaganda, Querdenker and AfD.
You’ve been warned, you need strong nerves.
With more than 30 degrees outside I have time to look for crazy stuff on the internet.
Go north!
The climate, being what it’s been like during the last 10 years, suggests moving to northern countries, unless you like to sit and sweat in the shade, that is…
In Hungary, the hospitals are now relieved because the rescue vehicles are subject to the 50 liter tank restriction. We go forward not backward 😀 https://hvg.hu/itthon/20220701_mentoauto_orszagos_mentoszolgalat_tankolas_limit_uzemanyag_mol
Just found this very detailed and very interesting scathing article on my phone – via google news:
https://www.newyorker.com/podcast/the-new-yorker-radio-hour/why-do-conservatives-love-hungarys-viktor-orban
The author spent some time in Budapest at the infamous CPAC and just the names he mentions – from Bannon to Tucker to … make me shudder.
Though of course much that he describes has been discussed here already.
Enjoy!
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky decried “purposeful Russian terror” late Friday after missile strikes killed at least 21 people near the Black Sea port of Odessa and hit the southern front-line city of Mykolaiv according to the Washington Post newspaper.
But it is also known that in and around Odessa surface-to-air missile defense systems and launchers for Harpoon anti-ship missiles exist which are legitimate targets for the Russians and we also know Russian missiles have questionable accuracy so the civilian slaughter could also be collateral damage as we classified it in the US Army.
The same newspaper several days ago also ran a story about how the Ukrainians were covertly hiding there ammunition depots in smaller quantities in business settings to reduce Russia taking them out. Of course Ukraine is packed with Russian spies (some of whom are continually caught jailed and or executed according to reports in the Kyiv Independent) so they can be targeted by Russian missiles which miss their intended targets as often as they hit them.
Today yet again the Washington Post ran a major article questioning US statements on the war situation in Ukraine (see https://flipboard.com/@washpost/world-gmn4hl27z/as-ukraine-war-bogs-down-u-s-assessments-face-scrutiny/ for a summary). The article discusses how the US is presenting a restricted and optimistic version of the war.
One thing is for sure there is more and more discussion among retired US Army officers on private blogs that the Ukrainians will attempt major offensive operations to push back the Russians. Really I would say there is an expectation among most of us the Ukrainians will retake some lost territory because the Russians will retreat and rain artillery and missile hell on Ukrainian mechanized infantry. Then stage a counter offensive that some believe could break Ukrainian forces creating potential nightmares for large parts of eastern Ukraine.
One big problem with Zelensky is he does not understand the Geneva Convention on warfare actually allows civilians to be killed as collateral damage to an extent. Most of the western media seems oblivious to that too. Article 51(5)(b) of the 1977 Additional Protocol I prohibits
an attack which may be expected to cause incidental loss of civilian life, injury to civilians, damage to civilian objects, or a combination thereof, which would be excessive in relation to the concrete and direct military advantage anticipated.
So in Panama we issued a formal loud speaker warning in Spanish to civilians in a part of Panama City where the Panamanian Armed forces had a command bunker that we were going to start air and ground bombardment on. Unfortunately Panamanian police blocked safe passage of civilians out and a good number were killed.
At first the US denied any civilian deaths and eventually agreed some were killed. But formally it was not a violation of the Geneva convention. In Afghanistan when US drones killed the wrong people we sent out military lawyers to make grievance payments to surviving family members. According to my daughter who was a civil affairs officer over there they handed out US cash in return for signing a liability wavier. I doubt if the Russian military officers in charge of the attacks in Odessa will ever be charged with a war crime.
„… problem with Zelensky …“ is he tries everything for his country day after day Orban shits on his! Just like the Republicans in the USA …
…. I’m puzzled by your reference to ‘legitimate targets for the Russians’. Russian aggression is a violation of UN Charter 2 (4) and therefore violates international law. Therefore, there cannot be legitimate targets for the Russians. It is important that clear opposition to Russian aggression is maintained and that entails ensuring that the language in which we describe or analyse what is going on is correct. Russian actions are not legitimate, ipso facto, there can be no legitimate targets.
They are potentially legitimate targets under the Geneva Convention which takes no position on which nation state starts combat. The first purpose of the UN, as stated in Article 1 of its charter is ” to maintain international peace and security, to take effective collective measures for the prevention and removal of threats to the peace, suppression of acts of aggression or other breaches of peace, and to bring about by peaceful means, and in conformity with the principles of justice and international law, adjustment or settlement of international disputes or situations which might lead to a breach of the peace”
But both the USA and Russia have carried out military invasions that violated that basic provision. In the case of the USA I was directly involved in the invasions of both Grenada and Panama. Both the USA and Russia have used their veto power in the security council to block invasions from being declared a violation of Article 1. China as I recall did the same thing when it invaded Vietnam in early 1979.
But once the war starts regardless of who starts combat the Geneva Convention applies if the nations are signatories and under the Convention civilians can be killed based on bombardment of military targets including repair facilities located in cities and towns. Then what is called the Convention’s rule of proportionality apples to the killing of civilians that I cited.
Under the UN Charter 2 (4) there are only 2 circumstances in which Russias aggression could be justified. One (article 42) is where the action is authorised by the Security Council, and second (article 51), if the aggressor were to be acting in self-defence. There is a third which is generally regarded as a ‘duty to protect’ and irrelevant here. Neither of the first two conditions referred to apply (and neither did they, I believe, in either Panama or Grenada). Thus Russia’s aggression in Ukraine is illegal. Given that, it is very difficult to see how any targets can be regarded as ‘legitimate’. (potentially or otherwise). The Geneva convention is not relevant to the justification of Russia’s aggression, rather to the conduct of the war itself. These are separate matters. The problem here is, arguably, that by legitimising any aspect of Russia’s aggression we conceal or distort the entirely illegal nature of this war. This, of course, is a separate matter from considering the factors or provocations which may have preceded and facilitated the aggression and which fall outside the conditions referred to above.
Well the UN position on aggression can’t be enforced because of the veto of Russia and the Chinese abstention in that council, it does not have to justified based on Article 1 by the Russians because invocation has been blocked. US President Truman, Stalin, and Church Hill created these veto rules to allow the great powers to execute military actions when in their interests.
Agreed. However, the point is about legitimacy and how the war is discussed. If the war is llegal, there can be no legitimate targets for the Russians. To attribute legitmacy to acts of aggression risks distorting the basis to the war itself.
So this morning here in the USA the Washington Post published this article “Moscow claims capture of Lysychansk; Kyiv says Donbas battle ‘not over‘.” Effectively the US media confirmed what had been oblivious for close to a week when the Russians had forced the Ukrainian troops into an oil refinery where they held out.
The tactic seems to have been to lure the Russians into close combat, and inflict high casualties. The Russians instead unleashed never ending artillery bombardment on those troops. The article says nothing about Ukrainian casualties because it’s a military secret under Ukrainian law.
The Ukraine based Kyiv Independent ran an article today only citing Yuriy Sak, an advisor to Ukraine’s Defense Minister, that Russian troops have not taken the whole city but no indication of how much of the city they held. There was no information if the Russians may have just left a pocket of resistance behind to as we used to say in the US Army to mop up latter. The Russians use the same phrase “Операция по вымывке.”
According to this report https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-2 the Ukrainians began what is called a fighting retreat on June 28th and it’s unclear how many Ukrainians were able to escape Lysychansk. As an artillery officer in Vietnam I was taught that tactic on how some of the men retreat to a defensive position, others stay at the front to provide suppressing fire. The men at the front line then withdraw while the men in the newly established defensive position provide covering fire for the retreating men this can go on for miles inch by inch. In general the South Vietnamese troops could not effectively execute that tactic and it would turn into a slaughter. So it was not even tried, instead they used strategic bastions like the Ukrainians seem to be doing. Effectively leaving behind troops and not really informing them of their hopeless situation. I was exactly in that situation at the battle of An Loc in 1972, except we had complete air superiority and dropped massive ordinance on the communists and flew in supplies by helicopter for 66 days until the encirclement was broken. There were even some parachute air drops of supplies that frequently drifted into communist lines attempted. Communist artillery battered us every day despite their own losses from air bombardment and counter battery fire from the South Vietnamese artillery forces that I directed day and night as their US adviser. (There are several books published on the Battle of An Loc by the way.)
By the fact that entrenched Ukrainian forces covered the retreat by holding up at the Lysychansk refinery instead of gradually withdrawing indicates they like our South Vietnamese allies in that war they could not carry out that tactic. It takes tremendous discipline and junior officer leadership to keep troops providing defensive fire in place during the execution of that tactic due to fear of abandonment.
Ukrainian Internal Affairs Minister Vadym Denysenko vaguely noted that Russian forces have a “high probability” of capturing Lysychansk but that they will have a difficult time advancing in Donetsk Oblast past Slovyansk and Kramatorsk at least 48 hours ago which was not reported by the western media. What is also not being grasped by western media is that while the fighting for Severodonetsk had lasted for several months. The fighting for Lysychansk which is directly across the Seversky Donets River, prior to the Ukrainian retreat lasted only around two weeks. That clearly indicates a serious problem of combat exhaustion on the part of Ukrainian forces. I am not surprised by that exhaustion it’s a horrific situation for the Ukrainians.
Re: Istvan (Chicago) , Russian veto power in the UN
In February, the Ukrainian ambassador to the UN had the following legal argument:
When the UN was created, the Soviet Union was given 3 seats: Soviet Union, Ukraine, Belarus.
When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Russia was not formally admitted – it just took over the Soviet seat with the veto power.
According to this legal argument, Russia is not even a member of the UN, so it cannot have veto power in the Security Council.
Remark: I never understood how Taiwan could have lost its membership in the UN, or even in the Security Council in 1971. As the Republic of China, it had veto power !
So today on the US Fourth of July holiday the USA seems to have come to a realization that the Ukrainian city of Lysychansk has been taken by Russian and apparently Chechen forces (Chechen flags are flying today in the town next to Russian Federation flags, some Soviet flags too).
I think the Ukrainian military made a significant admission today. Ukraine’s military said that continuing to defend Lysychansk would lead to “fatal consequences” amid Russia’s advantage over artillery power, ammunition and troop number. “A will of steel and patriotism are not enough for success – material and technical resources are needed,” Ukraine’s General Staff said in a Facebook post.
The USA has run very low of towable 155 mm artillery to send as have other NATO nations. The USA is transitioning to a fully mechanized 155 mm platform called the Paladin M109A6 is a cannon artillery system. It has advanced targeting capabilities tied into US military satellites and drones, it is fully capable of launching rocket-assisted projectiles (RAP) that can carry tactical nuclear warheads and the USA will not allow Ukraine to have that technology under its control and subject to capture by the Russians.
In the fighting in just the last two weeks in and around Lysychansk the Russians are today claiming Ukrainian troops sustained 5,469 casualties over the last two weeks, including 2,218 fatalities. The fighting also cost the Ukrainians a significant amount of hardware, including 12 warplanes, six long-range air defense missile systems, 97 rocket artillery launchers and almost 200 tanks and other armor. Ukrainian troops abandoned some of the weapons in Lisichansk, including almost 40 vehicles.
The Ukrainians have not yet put out their estimates on Russian losses in the two week attack. I suspect it will likely be greater than the hit the Ukrainians took. But I suspect the Russians have sufficient reserves to continue their offensive.
There is developing an understanding in the USA what a war of attrition is about and how horrendous this war initiated by Putin will be in the weeks and months to come. The comedian leader of the Ukraine can play the role of Churchill and vow to fight to the death endlessly, meanwhile those dying on the frontlines for Ukraine are getting older and older. Putin really seems to care in the least. His inspiration seems to be Stalin who threw at the Germans wave after wave of soldiers some even without rifles ordered to pick up the rifles of their dead and wounded comrades to continue the fight.
Not exactly a green light for Orbán’s political platform:
Slovakia Takes Over a Divided V4 after Hungary’s Troubled Presidency | Balkan Insight
Yes the bulk of the V4 sees no future for their countries in terms of economic relations with Russia if Putin is victorious in Ukraine and even if Putin does not rapidly move to militarily take on NATO. Orban sees the world very differently I am guessing, and it’s totally a guess.
Deals can be made with Putin by V4 nations and money can be made for the elites in the V4 nations even with a victorious Russia emerging from this war. My guess is Orban privately believes the V4 ruling elites will come around to his view point eventually once Putin is done slaughtering Ukrainians and his own youth. But that is really only guessing the mind of the great leader. Our old host Eva often speculated on the inner thoughts of Orban, some times she was right and some times wrong. She had sort of a deductive logic based on Orban’s history, I make no claims to having any method at all in my speculations about Orban’s thinking.
I honestly think the $750 billion three-stage rebuilding and recovery plan for Ukraine, drafted at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Lugano, Switzerland in the last few days is totally disingenuous. If the parts of Ukraine seized by Russia are not returned to Ukraine these western governments are not going to pay Putin for destruction he has caused. Right now that Russian occupation is at least one fifth the land mass of internationally recognized Ukraine.
This conference was created by guilt laid on the west by the Ukrainian government and the plan is according to media reports 2,000 pages long. If Putin’s vision for an occupied Ukraine is what I heard discussed in Esztergom by my KDNP supporting relatives Putin is not interested in restoring destroyed urban areas.
Putin wants agriculture production restored and controlled by Russia. Those urban Ukrainians who are economically redundant and have fallen under Russian control will be relocated, given Russian passports, and properly indoctrinated. I asked one of my relatives who is a Catholic professor who believed that theory why he thought that?
His answer, was because Putin believes in the Comecon model (Council for Mutual Economic Assistance under the USSR) for a restored Russian empire within a “államkapitalista rendszer.” I asked if he thought Orban and the leadership of Fidesz agreed with that? He said he believes Zsolt Hernádi seems to think so and that he thought was a reflection of the thinking of Fidesz. More than that he would not say.
Sometimes I really wonder whether these Hungarian catholics think that the EU will follow them some time. Right now there’s a clear two thirds majority in the European Parliament saying NO to the Fidesz ideas.
So it seems that we can count ourselves lucky that we haven’t met any catholics yet in Esztergom.
But we only go to the ALDI and TESCO there and sometimes eat at a nice pizzeria near the Danube.
it’s interesting to see you as an ALDI shopper wolfi, in the USA its considered to be a low end grocery store even though German owned. Aldi actually has stores in several low income areas of Chicago, The business model of Aldi in the USA is to sell their products at low prices and offer a limited assortment of goods. They keep their prices low by limiting the number of types of items they sell and using a budget to pay employees that are on par with the company’s low prices.
ALDI has believed its model would work in low income Black communities in Chicago and opened several stores in those communities. So far they have not proven to be profitable and one is being closed currently in Chicago (see https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/aldi-just-abruptly-closed-multiple-201525600.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall). They seem to be making a profit in some majority Hispanic areas of Chicago however, that are much more working class than underclass.
There is an Aldi in a close by community with higher poverty levels, but to be honest very few people from the higher income enclave here in Chicago where we live shop there. Many of the preferred grocery stores for higher income Chicagoans have full functioning bars in them, one close by has jazz trios performing nightly, other specialize in organic food that is very high priced, fresh sear food ocean caught flown in daily, and grass feed beef. One is called Whole Foods and is owned by Amazon its nickname here is “whole paycheck.” All the higher income stores have many plug ins for electric cars with many Tesla all electric cars along with high end BMWs, Land Rovers, etc. The sociology of groceries here in the USA is rather obvious by looking at the cars parked there.
Now we’re really getting OT …
ALDI in Germany often has charging stations, here in Esztergom it’s the LIDL. Actually LIDL is our favourite store in Germany as well as here. There’s one in Dorog, which we can reach on foot …
And about ALDI in the USA:
Around 10 years ago we visited my wife’s nephew near Nashville who is a professor at Vanderbilt.
When he brought us home in his car we stopped at the ALDI and I accompanied him. He was very happy to quickly find the products he was looking for – unless the Walmart which is so big and …
The alternative for us on our holidays in the USA was Publix – Whole Foods is much too expensive for the quality they (claim to …) offer.
Basically this Washington Post opinion piece https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/01/ukraine-endgame-scenarios-war-russia/ is a call for a cease fire in the Ukrainian war and an effective informal surrender of about one fifth of Ukrainian until Putin dies off. Some time in the 2030s..
It is written by a major player at the Brookings Institution and no doubt reflects the opinion of at least some in the US Defense Department and State Departments. There are many passages of this statement that jumped out at me but here is one that follows a description of how a cease fire could be reached that would likely need to include UN peace keeping troops:
“ Ukraine might not be prepared to accept such an interim arrangement today — but Kyiv might well change its mind after a few more weeks or months of intense fighting and likely futile attempts at recapturing most of the territory Russia now holds, even after the arrival of more sophisticated Western arms like the HIMARS long-range artillery system..”
Essentially the author Michael O’Hanlon is saying the Ukrainians can’t emerge victorious in their defense of their homeland if they keep on fighting. In fact he admits his vision for how things will evolve are similar to those expressed by the aging Dean of US foreign policy, Henry A. Kissinger at a conference at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
Kissinger back in 1972 was in charge of the US delegation to the US peace talks with the North Vietnamese communists that also involved massive bombing of the north and massive death from a full scale attack by the communists on South Vietnamese forces I was a military adviser to at An Loc.
The end result of Kissinger‘s peace deal was a three year pause in the communist seizure of power only until 1975 when the South military collapsed. Similarly to South Vietnam Ukraine is a profoundly corrupt nation with massive internal dynamics that make it difficult to effectively defend and there is war exhaustion with so many being killed. That scenario I am afraid will play out again in Ukraine if a deal similar to the one being proposed by O’Hanlon comes to reality.
For myself it’s like a bad PTSD dream. I do not have a solution for Zelensky given the situation his military faces. Several high ranking retired US officers are privately suggesting that what remains of Ukraine be protected by a direct nuclear threat to Russia including the actual use of tactical nukes against the Russians to get their attention. That seems far fetched to me.
The only solution I see is to intensify the pressure on Russia!
Putin should probably no longer considered to be a normal thinking person but a psychopath who doesn’t care about “his” country at all. Like Hitler who said something like “If I go down all of Germany deserves to go down” and didn’t mind Germany bombed to ashes.
But hopefully there are some people in the Russian hierarchy like in the German who will accept that they have to get in or rather get their troupes out of Ukraine.
And now back to Hungarian reality:
1 € = 415 Forint
And the reason for this is not a strong €
1 $ = 407 Forint
That might be good for EU tourists and others – if prices in Hungary weren’t so high already.
When will the economy in Hungary collapse?
My wife (who does the shopping right now) says that many prices are 50% higher than last year …
Don’t worry!
I am worried about my neighbors 1kg of white bread today costs 720 Ft. Anno domini 2010 when Orban took over the helm and introduced the unorthodox financial policy, the bread cost 125 Ft. The inflation rate was also a topic at the hairdresser’s today along with the price cap for certain “meat” certain milk and fuel. Magyar Hang as well as informed circles know that the cap was raised before Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. But that is not perceived at all in the population. Who is surprised, nobody … who pays that, we all pay that. Now we push the “unorthodox financial catastrophe” in front of us and “if” in October the cap is lifted then the fuel costs twice as much as today plus what “we” have accumulated until then by capping, without guarantee, but that is then again beaten on the goods. Will bread cost 2000 Ft. then? I am worried about those who get only a few forints, so the majority of my environment, the Orbanians.
Orbàn said:
If bread is so expensive then why don’t they buy cake?
I’m sure you could ask any of the Fidesz top honchos and they couldn’t tell you how much a loaf costs.
Before the whole crazyness started ALDI had good offers on “bread mix” for darker bread (Schwarzbrot) that we prefer so we bought a lot of packages, that might help us in autumn and winter.
Hungarian white bread anyway is horrible – almost as bad as US or English bread!
“Hungarian white bread” When it is very fresh it tastes good, when it is a few hours old it becomes like rubber. Just like the toast in the USA. 40 cm long package can be compressed to 5 cm and 20 min later it has expanded again to 40 cm. Yes unfortunately there is rarely bread here that smells good and tastes good, but that’s a matter of taste.
… you are buying in the wrong places… try Lipoti… it’s fine.
True, they have a good rye bread that was better in the past. Only we come there rarely, because too far away.
it often varies from one shop to another but when it’s good it’s pretty good.
I’m going to make a note of that. 🙂
Kafkadesk has another very interesting and scathing article on Hungarian politics.
Typical Hungarian situation:
Most Hungarians profit from and like the advatages of the EU but Fidesz is screaming about Brussels and the EUSSR day and night.
https://kafkadesk.org/2022/07/07/whats-the-point-of-writing-about-hungarian-politics/
What I found especially interesting:
The author Ábel Bede never even once mentions the word “Green”!
So the problems of the environment, climate change etc are not relevant for most Hungarians?
Their handling of garbage seems to prove this …
So is there any point in reading about it…ha ha!
Der Forint sprang heute gegenüber dem € zwischen 402 und 414, also 3%.
Sind da wieder Spekulanten am Werk, womöglich Soros?
Orban’s forint printing plant is running at full steam, and no euros have yet come from the EU. Let’s see whether the Hungarians understand this and whether the alleged effects that are supposed to destroy Orban occur. If so, I am curious about the post -orban. I’m just afraid that the stupid chatter “the EU would have made Orban possible” is simply due to the fact that he is the smartest Magyar.
They might have to wait long before the Moscow Gold flows freely again.
Unorthodox thinking … they say …
Interesting article about journalism in Hungary and journalists’ attitude toward politics:
https://kafkadesk.org/2022/07/07/whats-the-point-of-writing-about-hungarian-politics/
I don’t want to brag – but yesterday at 11.58 I already linked to this, good to hear that you are thinking similar.
I have subscribed to the Kafkadesk newsletter, it’s interesting even though it’s concentrated on Czechia/Slovakia it often has news on Hungary.
Recommended!
Sorry I missed your post Wolfi, I must say it’s getting hard to follow the thread as replies and new posts mix up. I also joined btw.
No problem, it happens to me too. And as we say in Germany:
Doppelt genäht hält besser!
A few days ago on July 6, I linked to this blog a opinion piece calling for a cease fire in Ukraine and a concession of the occupied parts of Ukraine to Russia for many years or until Putin drops dead. It was written by a defense scholar from a leading US think tank. Actually this is not too far from Orban’s position who also is dreaming no doubt in making money for his oligarchs in reconstructing Ukraine with EU and US money some which will be kicked back to him in one way or another using Mafia state practices.
Today this analytic article appeared in the Washington Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/08/defeat-ukraine-victory-russia/ What is so interesting about it is it raises the very issue Wolfi did that there is a need for NATO and the USA to have the resolve to provide enough support to crush Putin and the entire Russian invasion.
This passage reflects the crush Putin position: “ Needing to win implicitly means a profound humbling of Russia. Rather than preventing Ukrainian defeat, the U.S. goal, wrote Eliot Cohen of the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, should be “to ensure Russia’s defeat — the thwarting of its aims to conquer yet more of Ukrainian territory, the smashing of its armed forces, and the doing of both in a convincing, public, and, yes, therefore humiliating way.”
Of course if Putin is a madman at the scale of Hitler as Wolfi suggested then we could be faced with a tactical nuclear war before Putin would allow such a humiliation, which is not discussed.
Then the Republican isolationist argument is presented arguing the defeat of Ukraine is simply inevitable. A retired US Army Colonel makes that argument stating “ the leadership in Kyiv and its Western backers must now face the sobering realities that diplomacy and a negotiated settlement may be the only way to prevent even more Ukrainian territory from falling to Russia.”
Using the strategic logic US Army officers are taught I agree with the Colonel. But using Wolfi’s madman theory and my own experience in our Vietnam war I believe Putin will push for complete victory and any peace deal would be short lived. Moreover the US taxpayers will get tired of paying for this war and even without US and NATO casualties the abandonment argument could win eventually.
I really think the comparison to Hitler is necessary!
If we let Putin continue with Ukraine the next step will be one of the Baltic states or even Finland I’m sure.
He already has this in mind obviously:
The poor “Russians” in Kaliningrad need to be connected straight to the motherland.
My idea:
Why not give back Königsberg and all of Ostpreußen back to the Germans, would be much better for them.
And we also might have ideas about Danzig aka Gdansk where my father grew up – if they get enough money from the EU the Poles probably wouldn’t mind.
End of sarcasm …
I don’t know if your wife read this article Wolfi https://telex.hu/eletmod/2022/07/07/orban-viktor-nadragja-hosszu-bo-gyurott-divat its about Orban’s pathetic suits he wares for international conferences that make him look like egyházi öltönyű paraszt. I honestly think Kadar dressed much better than Orban does.
Istvan, yes – my wife says he looks and thinks like a paraszt (we’re not supposed to used that invective …) but what is much worse is the amount of money the government gifts to the honchos’ families and friends. And it’s not only O.
The Commander of the Hungarian Defense Forces, Romulusz Ruszin-Szendi has visited Ukraine according to Telex. Valerii Zaluzhny, Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was reported to have said of the visit: “I greatly appreciate the professional and friendly relations with my Hungarian counterpart, and I am satisfied with the level of military cooperation between our two states”
I am simply amazed at that statement given the fact that the Hungarian Defense Forces have provided at least as far as is publicly known not one bullet to the Ukrainian Army. It is certainly wise for the Ukrainians not to make more enemies than they already have, but that statement was a little extreme to say the least.
Politics …
Everybody knows what’s going on. Remember that the European Parliament just called for Hungary to be financially punished – with a two thirds majority including the EPP and Mr Weber who used to be a Fidesz friend and is now hated like …
PS:
There is a Fidesz site on Facebook in German:
Ungarn Heute but be warned, many of the commentators are AfD Querdenker
The English language site Hungary Today is similar – and almost funny in its lunatics!
According to the last 10 years, the Hungarian government has always been an enemy of the Ukrainian government. No hostile attacks on the part of Hungary on Ukraine is therefore satisfactory. From this point of view, the statement is completely normal, in my opinion.
U.S. Treasury to end 1979 treaty with global minimum tax holdout Hungary
Congrats again to Orbán!
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-treasury-end-1979-treaty-with-global-minimum-tax-holdout-hungary-2022-07-08/
To a very real degree the US Department of Defense is promoting in the western media a theory of warfare that was debunked during the Vietnam War by this 1970 study
https://ssl.armywarcollege.edu/dclm/pubs/study1970.pdf The title is “Study on Military Professionalism” issued by the US Army War College. It proved pretty clearly that the idea the US Army used of body counts to show that the US was winning the war was delusional. The Army’s theory was that eventually, the Viet Cong (VC) and People’s Army of Vietnam (PAVN) would lose after the attrition warfare.
Not only did the secret study (the restricted marking can be seen on the pdf) in 1970 prove the theory was wrong the outcome of the war empirically demonstrated that. Yet just today I can see this old discredited theory being repackaged by the US Department of Defense for example in this quote in the Washington Post today:
“A senior U.S. military official, also speaking on the condition of anonymity, speculated Friday that Russian forces might soon become exhausted if they press forward without a pause. “If I took the number of casualties that the Russians took to gain that portion of ground, I’d probably have to stop and refit,” the official said.”
The US analysts present the horrific casualties the Russians have taken as a one sided deal and do not speculate publicly on Ukrainian casualties. It’s a tragic analytic approach done for PR purposes.
In a war of attrition the basic population math weighs in favor of Russia. We know that just among Hungarian speaking Ukrainians of prime military draft age there has been draft evasion (see https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-hungarians-in-ukraine-say-russias-invasion-has-brought-new-suspicions/). This quote from that article reflects the impact draft evasion has had on the Ukrainian Hungarian speaking population of military draft age: “But when the war broke out, many Hungarians fled, including men who swam across the border to Hungary to avoid conscription.”
There is also draft evasion happening in Russia, but the millions of Ukrainians that have emigrated to the EU and even several thousand to here in Chicago are actually impacting the Ukrainian Army’s manpower far more than what the vastly larger Russia is experiencing.
This article https://mises.org/wire/america-has-long-been-haven-draft-dodgers-foreign-lands discusses how the USA benefitted from draft evaders from around the world. There is an interesting discussion of how the German population of the US was boosted over time by men escaping the military draft.
You know your last sentence applies to the Trumpf family?
Yes that was discussed in an NY Times article about the Trump family.
mises.org is Mises Institute its foundation was financed by Ron Paul, the father of Rand Paul. The one who believes such only one comma for the one all faith is in vain. 🙂
Ron Paul of course also ended up opposing the Vietnam War even after Nixon became president. Rand Paul interestingly also opposed the US invasion and occupation of Iraq, but he was not a Senator at the time and did not vote on the resolution authorizing the invasion.
The conservative isolationists in the Republican party are very interesting to be honest.
Interesting? Anyone could see that there are some parallels between Orban´s Hungary and the the Republicans with very few exceptions. I would call it boring because we see the results in Hungary. Deplorable doesn’t fit either because most Hungarians go along with it or don’t oppose it. Of course, wealthy Republicans can’t be bothered by it, which might explain why it’s seen as interesting. In the end, there will be uncountable deaths not because there are so many but because they freeze to death for lack of money or simply take their own lives … without being able to document the context.
Rand Paul is a republican in addition libertarian whether he got that from his father can only be guessed or studied. If you want to limit the state to the basic functions (anarchy) that is a good reason to be against any war abroad.
Where would we be, if the digital options of designing our reality weren’t available?
Do think about what you pass on!
Well this speaks to your concern Michael. This Telex article https://telex.hu/kulfold/2022/07/10/orosz-ukran-haboru-137-nap-percrol-percre-elo-kozvetites discussed a claim made by the Russians that they destroyed with artillery fire “two hangars in Donetsk, in which the Ukrainian army kept M777 howitzers from America.” The article also used a Hungarian Russian affairs expert András Rácz who said the Russians often do not provide evidence for their claims and their claims are often contradictory. But the Kyiv Independent just yesterday claimed in this article https://kyivindependent.com/national/1234 “Over the last four weeks, nearly 20 Russian ammunition depots in Russian-occupied Donbas and Ukraine’s south, including some of the largest, have been hit or completely destroyed.” The evidence for this was apparently a video from July 2, Ukraine’s military published a showing an enormous explosion at another large depot in the city of Popasna in Luhansk Oblast that was being used to supply Russian units near Bakhmut and to the south of the Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk.” But the video was not linked to the Kyiv Independent article.
There are clearly credibility problems with claims being made by both Russia and Ukraine. Magyar Nemzet linked today to a Russian ministry of defense video https://ria.ru/20220709/gaubitsa-1801393211.html that reportedly shows the M777 howitzers being destroyed, to be honest looking at that video it could have been just about anything the Russians hit. Really there has rarely been any attempt to verify the Russian claims by the western or Hungarian media that is under Fidesz friendly ownership. Even some of the commercial satellite pictures that have appeared are interpreted in multiple ways. I accept that some of the claims by both the Russians and Ukrainian are legitimate, and I suspect both sides are less than fully truthful. I know for sure a lot of combatants on both sides are dying to put it simply. I also am pretty sure Russia that clearly started this war has a lot more bodies to keep throwing into the grinder than does Ukraine.
Back to looking a war photos and reports in newspapers that were under censorship too going back to before WWI.
There seem to be more changes necessary for the EU commission to give the Viktor money than the four concessions the regime already proclaimed.
https://azonnali.hu/cikk/20220708_nem-eleg-brusszelnek-a-kormany-negy-engedmenye-a-kozoktatasban-is-nagy-valtozasokat-akar?fbclid=IwAR0MTQvx6bu96qSdCCOf4zu1TAV8AvQOZsPbxL7FU70F0OXzKj2NuIlnIJ0
The really funny thing is now, that the dilatory tactics of the Viktor by filling in each document on the last possible moment has stopped. (Already months ago, but in secret.) What is now debunked as a lie is the government is blaming “Brüsszel” for the delay in teacher circumstance improvement. In fact, this is a requirement from the EU commission for paying. Basically, this is too crazy for words.
https://magyarnemzet.hu/belfold/2022/07/brusszel-durvan-megserti-az-unio-alapveto-szerzodeseit
I hope very much that the Commission doesn´t fall in the trap of the regime.
There is an alarming report in the Kyiv Independent that the Russians are beginning to use Ukrainian refugees that they forced into Russia or it’s puppet states as war workers and even as parts of Russian engineering teams preparing Russian defensive lines for a potential Ukrainian offensive.
This reminds me a great deal of Stalin’s use of Russia’s vast number of political and military prisoners during WWII. Or for that matter the Hungarian use of the Jews in the munkaszolgálat (labor service brigades).
This included at least 130,000 men at the Eastern Front in occupied Ukraine, where most of the men died. The gendarmes and Army men who guarded these “slaves” were mostly members of the anti-Semitic, fascist Arrow Cross Party. A member of my own Hungarian Catholic Church in Chicago who presented himself as an anticommunist hero and was a troop leader of our unit of Hungarian scouts was one of the gendarmes who used a false identity to enter the USA after WWII, he emigrated back to Hungary Post transition and died peacefully back home with a Catholic service according to my Church news letter.
Telex’s Ferenc Bakró-Nagy covered the same story slightly differently in this article https://telex.hu/kulfold/2022/07/11/orosz-ukran-haboru-138-nap-percrol-percre-elo-tudositas really only discussing the passport issue and quoting Putin calling Ukrainians “little Russians.”
Ferenc Bakró-Nagy also discussed today the coming Ukrainian offensive in a Telex article and that “Ukraine is deploying a force of one million people, equipped with Western weapons, to recapture the southern territories.” That seems basically to be true and the Russians of course know it could be coming and want to greet the million man army with killing fields and massive bombardments.
I have no doubt if this offensive materializes the great victories will be emphasized in the western media and the massive casualties the Ukrainians will likely take will be emphasized by the Russian media and the Fidesz controlled media in Hungary.
I think you should take a small holiday from the carnage.
After that – it will still be bad, it will be bloody, it will be uncertain, it will be about post-soviet inferiority focused on one narrow point and, like it or not, it will be very much be about how the US actually handles the pitfall of Republican sanity.
Really here in Chicago we have murders on a daily basis. On top of that we had the 4th of July killing of 6 people in a near by suburb. Really no break from mass killings if you live here, but Ukraine is far worse.
Yes, it’s horrible just to think about this.
More and more Putin looks like a hybrid of Stalin and Hitler – and Hungary is following him.
Of course the regular Fidesz voter doesn’t care about Ukraine, doesn’t care about democracy and freedom, just about the money they make.
I’m wondering if and when they will wake up. Inflation is horrible, the Forint is going down, Hungary is already a pariah in the EU …
From Kafkadesk:
While the Forint is falling, falling against the weak € – and of course even more against the $ Orbán will have a nice holiday in Dallas from August 4-7, joining Nigel Farage, Fox News host Sean Hannity, and possibly former President Donald Trump . Tucker Carlson is also expected …
Wonderful (for him)!
I’ve been to Dallas once, didn’t find it too interesting, but in August???
Typical temperature then is 104 Fahrenheit, 40 Celsius.
Crazy idea – but they’ll probably be in air conditioned rooms anyway all the time.
Now Austin was really nice and interesting but is probably much too leftist for these crazies. And of course when I was there with my wife to watch the bats under the bridge 1€ = 1.45 $ – we went shopping like crazy!
Ten years ago:
1 $ = 220 HUF
Now
1$ = 400HUF
Orbán’s love affair with the American right-extremists is probably the only thing he really cares for politically, these days. And of course, enjoying the full carte-blanche blessing from the Hungarian tax payers.
Demonstrators in Budapest blocked Margaret bridge in central Budapest, protesting against a planned tax raise. The government’s decision would mean a significant loss of income for many small Hungarian businesses.
Tweet from Viktória Serdült
Yes, it’s unbelievable and crazy!
That law to get rid of KATA was proposed on Monday and voted on today (Tuesday) – probably nobody in Fidesz had read it.
My wife says that might mean the end of many “small businesses”.
However we all know that this is typical FIDESZ – someone has an idea, the next day it’s made into a law and then they maybe realize what crap they voted for, start to modify it, try again …
The main question always is:
Who profits?
I am actually surprised to see people demonstrating, something we haven’t seen too much in the recent years.
Who profits? The Orbán clan would be the usual suspect. I did not get exactly what this new taxation was about except it will hurt small businesses as you wrote. At the same time, we know the government desperately needs money. Yet what’s ironic is that Orbán is blocking the global minimum tax proposal but I guess it’s better to tax small business owners than the pro-Fidesz oligarchs.
BTW, there are rumours that the European Commission would allow the Covid recovery funds to be sent to Hungary. Not sure how much is true but Katalin Novak recently met with Commissioner for Justice Didier Renders. I am curious what will come out of this?
There were demonstrations, and they were not easy to miss if you inform yourself with Hungarian news.
Teachers, nurses, students lmbtq groups just to mention some groups were demonstrating quite recently.
The problem with these protests is what Hadházy expressed today: the lack of solidarity in Hungarian people.
https://444.hu/2022/07/12/hadhazy-a-rendszer-szepen-lassan-mindenkit-eler-nem-lehet-kimaradni-belole
I meant this one seemed to be larger than the usual demonstrations. Sure I’ve heard of some past ones but they seemed quite limited compared to this one, not to mention they hardly received foreign media coverage. This one looks different but I could be wrong, not being in the country.
Our young ones just told us that they’ll go to the demonstration tonight, again on one of the bridges.
Wonder how many people will be there …
Of course the fascist North Korean state owned media did not report on the demonstrations!
I’m wondering how the traffic news described the traffic problems around the bridges?
Does anyone know?
People who just follow the Magyar TV news are horribly underinformed and lied to – but it seems there are a lot of them around.
Yes from the perspective of the Fidesz Mafia state it’s totally better to tax small business owners than the pro-Fidesz oligarchs. I doubt the kick backs that some smaller businesses pay for various Fidesz privileges add up much.
With the election of Ádám Hernádi in Esztergomthe city I know the best in 2019 (close to 59% of the vote) based largely on a platform that he was the relative of Ádám Hernádi MOL CEO and the owner of many things in town that it would be good for the town to get even more investment from Hernádi.
To be honest many of my Fidesz supporting relatives in Esztergom fully support the oligarchs providing they are Catholic and promote projects of Cardinal Péter Erdo internationally and Catholic tourism in Esztergom which supports a number of small businesses.
“I’m wondering how the traffic news described the traffic problems around the bridges?”
Well, according to the Fidesz playbook, there has been chaos on the roads in Budapest ever since mayor Karácsony replaced Tarlós, so it’s probably the opposition’s fault 😉
I’m struggling to understand the rationale behind the new Katatörveny (small business and sole traders tax law). In theory it is meant to stop so much work being done in the “black economy”, but it’s just going to make people’s lives even more difficult. And Fidesz leaders don’t seem to worry about the black economy when they (allegedly) steal millions of euros for themselves…
If it weren’t for the government-imposed price freeze, inflation would be 31% in Hungary https://telex.hu/gazdasag/2022/07/13/gki-inflacio-eu-novekedes-befagyasztott-arak
In case anyone needs information in English about the tax change law and demonstration: https://telex.hu/english/2022/07/12/major-tax-change-bill-pushed-through-parliament-in-spite-of-protests
I understand this will impact hundreds of thousands of workers. I am just curious to see how this will evolve.
you can sign an online petition to try and stop the new law at szabad.ahang.hu (Hungarian language)
This story is tragically funny https://magyarnemzet.hu/belfold/2022/07/szalay-bobrovniczky-kristof-nekunk-magyarorszag-biztonsaga-az-elso it indicates that Hungary is increasing the preparedness of its National Guard troops. To be honest posting signs in Russian by the Ukrainian border reading “In the Event of invasion we surrender, we only ask that our prime minister be allowed to exit with honor to Switzerland” would be more cost effective.
It is not funny, it is called propaganda, and people here believe it.
None of my younger family members in Hungary that have served in the Hungarian armed forces (really only two of them) post transition seem to believe the existing Hungarian military could put up any serious defense against a Russian invasion. I have heard it called in the metaphorical sense “egy Potyomkin hadsereg.” I am not so sure Jan you are correct about this aspect of Orban’s propaganda being believed in Hungary.
I recall well in 1997 Hungarians casting ballots in a referendum on entering into NATO voted in favor by around 85% to 15%, but the referendum itself was barely valid with only 51% of the people bothering to vote. Eva our former host’s old friend Professor Charles Gati, then a lecturer at the School of Advanced International Studies at John Hopkins University was amazed back then that more than 50 percent bothered to vote.
I was sent to Hungary before the vote as part of a pro-NATO team of US Army Hungarian speakers to promote NATO membership along with several 1956 veterans and even members of the Hungarian American Federation from the USA for one week. I retired from the US Army reserves shortly after that. Some Hungarians clearly believed back then there’s no threat and also believed the military costs were higher than Hungary could afford. We visited what was left of the Hungarian military, morale in the Hungarian Army was so low that one month before the vote soldiers threatened to stage street protests to demand higher pay. The Hungarian Air Force fighter planes were in such poor condition that some pilots flew only about 20 hours a year, making them a danger to themselves. The situation of today’s NATO based Hungarian military is much better than back then.
Prime Minister Gyula Horn who was promoting NATO membership at the time had very low support in the country too as I recall. Gati, seems to have been basically correct in his assessment back then I think. But I was simply too unsophisticated to understand the dynamics going on back then.
Well, doubting my point with the argument that two of your family members don´t believe the propaganda doesn´t impress me at all.
When I look at the results of the majority of the elections the last decade, I get the feeling that propaganda works, and feel save to write that many people believe this bullshit.
Feel free to disprove it, but on a serious way.
The reinstatement of the Horthy-era ultra national and anti-semitic order of “The Heroes” (Vitézi Rend) proves that the highest priority in the HU armed forces is political – not tactical – focusing on securing “proper national values represented” at all command levels. It simply means that a career in the forces is not realistic for officers who don’t play the tune of Orbán and co. well enough
Needless to say, serious modern tactic and leadership talent can’t make that grade, their focus is at much different, less mind-control oriented levels.
And in contrast to the Horthy-era, today’s HU forces don’t have officers with serious battlefield experience (I don’t count shootouts with inferior and poorly equipped troops as real battlefield experience) to educate the newcomers.
People in Hungary, for a large part, expect, accept and repeat propaganda, but they don’t necessarily believe it – nor do they care much for it.
Part of the increased readiness will be more soldiers and military equipment on the streets, in the metro, on railway stations, on squares etc.
As we know, the elections were won using the fear for involvement in the Ukrainian war. How perverse it was, and how big the lie was, the people must have believed it. The propaganda that the opposition wants to send soldiers in the war worked. So, they do care about the war, they believed the propaganda.
Their vote depended on this.
With the presence of soldiers and military vehicles in the streets the people will get the feeling of safety. This is automatic, if you explain to people that these soldiers are there to protect them, and they are present in front of your own eyes, you believe that these soldiers will protect you. I can even imagine when the government continues to break promises made before the election the Viktor has the army ready to “protect” the peace on the streets.
This is propaganda, and it works and many people believe it.
That the people really believe the Hungarian army alone can protect them against Russia is not likely, there I agree. But that is not the goal of the propaganda.
That is a fair assessment of the situation of the Hungarian armed forces. But having watched now maybe one full hour’s worth of interviews with the young more educated workers who are protesting the increase in the kata tax (see for example these interviews https://youtu.be/RRVrvS_ETB4) are really not going to go for this type of proper national values indoctrination process.
We here in the USA would call most of the protesting intellectual workers “gig workers” who here in the USA pay self employment tax and do not even get national health insurance in return. I still pay it on some of my income.
Now working class Hungarian youth who have gone to Szakgimnázium or Szakközépiskola indeed could be subject to this type of indoctrination. Those with similar backgrounds here in the USA are targeted for enlistment in the US Army or part time service in the US National Guard/ reserves.
A bit OT:
I have no military experience at all, worked for the civil defence many years ago calculating the effects of nuclear weapons – cold war times when everybody was afraid of a real war, just like today?
But looking at pictures of Hungarian officers( and Russian officers too) I get the feeling that it’s all just for show.
If these guys would have to enter a real war they’d sh** in their pants!
Well it is a very good idea to be afraid of real war like what is happening in Ukraine now or my daughters service in Afghanistan or mine in Vietnam.
I do not blame any young Ukrainian or Russian from evading the draft. The western media and even the Russian media focuses on wounded civilians, but largely avoids what is happening in actual combat to soldiers. I was not easily shocked even as a young officer, but in my training for combat related handling of wounded soldiers I was explicitly taught to move severed limbs out of visual sight of wound soldiers once a military first aid medical battle tourniquet was in place because it would reduce the panic response. Later when I took more advanced courses for I learned how to use morphine syrettes that could allow the wounded to self-administer narcotics before medics could arrive on the scene. The truth was the severely wounded were often too overwhelmed to self administer the morphine.
By the way I read today in the Kyiv Independent that the volume of dead Ukrainian soldiers possibly prompted the Kyiv City Council to approve a decision to establish a military cemetery along Olena Teliha Street in Kyiv’s Shevchenkivskyi neighborhood near the Babyn Yar Holocaust memorial.
Jan, re soldiers on the streets:
Like most Germans and people in other democratic countries I would see so many soldiers (or policemen …) on the streets as a thread to the people!
If you don’t behave we’ll take us with you or just shoot you!
To have a few soldiers
in critical places like near parliament of course is totally different – but too many soldiers and police on the streets ..
I wouldn’t want to live there.
Of course that should have been “threat”.
OT:
German site Pester Merkur on facebook just published a comparison of old and new costs for gas and electricity.
For households with higher consumption (A/C eg) the costs might be four or five times as high!
I completely agree with you, and see this as a threat myself too. But that is not the point here how I or you or the protesters on the moment feel about it. During the first covid wave there were soldiers in metro wagons to check if people follow the mask rules. When there was a rumour of terrorist attacks in Europe, the same happened. I did not see frightened people because of this.
Think of the following scenario, where things that are already fact are combined.
First: The government breaks promises made before the election.
Second: People start to protest to defend their wallet.
Third: The army is in a high alert state.
Fourth: The regime declares every opposition as enemies of the republic of Hungary.
Now all these things are already happening, what is left, is to make it plausible to the people that military force is needed to defend Hungary against the enemy from inside.
I hate predictions, especially about the future, but I think the Viktor is very well able to use violence when he feels his position is threatened.
The situation gets grimmer every day on the street, maybe your young ones can tell you about the protest yesterday, where for example the leader of the two tailed dog party was arrested.
Jan, you desribed it perfectly!
Is Hungary turning into a dictatorship?
Yes that arrest was shocking, but also amazingly I did see people drinking beer and partying in the video of the demonstrations that I viewed which were shot by more progressive individuals not Fidesz operatives as far as I can tell.
There seemed to be an element of a counter cultural revolt to the demonstrations, but I did not see in the videos any open use of illegal drugs but indeed that was possible too it was very 1960s like in its tone from what I saw.
I can tell you it was warm, the demonstrators were indeed younger than the normal ones, the mood amongst the demonstrators was good, but more police as the day before.
And the demonstration was not as political as usual.
I was at the Margit Hid, not in front of the Viktors monastery.
But as always in this society built on fear we are not enough.
As usual the propaganda press needs time to follow the Viktor´s instructions how to react on the demonstrations. I don´t know why this time is needed, because the reaction is always a reflex, and doesn´t need a brain. This time it is not different.
https://magyarnemzet.hu/belfold/2022/07/kaoszba-fulladt-a-kata-tuntetes
The other news outlets show a different reality:
https://24.hu/belfold/2022/07/14/kata-tuntetes-sokkolo-rendorseg-margit-hid-tuntetok/
The presence of the police is getting more and more.
It is a pity I have to leave Bp for two weeks, but when the protests are continuing, I will be happy to be present again.
Orban must first test his instincts, that is not as fast as usual …
Emmanuel Macron invited troops from the Hungarian army to march down the Champs-Élysées on Bastille Day. This prompted Gábor Eröss, Doctor in social science at the EHESS school in Paris and Deputy Mayor of Budapest’s 8th District to write an open letter in which he calls for the French President to be sure in the future to invite allied foreign troops, not Russia’s Proxy in the EU and NATO.
To illustrate where Hungary stands, he mentioned between other things the blocking of military cooperation with Ukraine, the refusal by the Hungarian government to allow military equipment being shipped to Ukraine to cross Hungary’s territory, the request by Hungary to remove Patriarch Kirill of Moscow from the sanction lists, the on-going pro-Russian/anti-Ukrainian propaganda or pro-Russian economic agreements like Paks II.
He reminded him that Hungary was the only Member State to veto the introduction of a minimum 15% tax for large corporations which could have been saluted a success for the EU French Presidency that ended on 30 June. He added that such veto from Orbán comes in stark contrast to the latest Kata measure that will impact many self-employed workers and SMEs in Hungary.
The Russian news outlets are running stories today with titles that translate to “Hungary has ‘military plans’ for Ukraine.” The articles all claim team Orban developed plans to cross the border with military force to protect the Hungarian population. Since our host has asked that we not provide links to the Russian media on this blog I will not do so. What I find interesting is why now start this propaganda effort?
The Russians use this Hungarian article https://index.hu/kulfold/2022/07/15/szijjarto-peter-gazbeszerzes-haboru-minimumado-kettos-adoztatas-diplomacia/ as the basis for their intervention article.
The relevant section of the Index article reads in translation: “According to Péter Szijjártó, this is precisely why it is in our interest to have peace in our east as soon as possible, because then we can avoid the dangerous scenarios that have been prepared for what we can do to save and protect the 150 thousand Hungarians living in Transcarpathia. If the front is possibly approaching the western half of Ukraine, it represents a much greater security risk in our case than before.
The Minister of Foreign Affairs believes that we continue to pursue a policy so that there is a minimal chance of drifting into war. He said that we have already made enough sanctions decisions, but now the West should focus more on how to achieve a ceasefire as soon as possible and to make peace over time.
Like any country with a war going on in its neighborhood, it must be prepared to defend itself if necessary.
However, the foreign minister also admitted that it is unlikely that the war in Ukraine would end in a short time.”
Now the Russians claim this is evidence of Hungarian plans to cross the border to protects Hungarians living in Transcarpathia. It is interesting that the Hungarian Foreign Ministry has had no reply as yet to the Russian claim of a planed Hungarian border crossing to protect Transcaprathian Hungarians.
I am also looking for any NATO response to this story, because if indeed Hungary crossed the border to defend Hungarian speakers it would have implications for NATO.
I just went to https://www.facebook.com/szijjarto.peter.official and there is not one word mentioned about Szijarto’s comments to Index nor the Russian claim’s that Hungary had developed plans to cross the border to protect Hungarian speakers based on that Index interview.
The EU is getting active:
https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/ugarn-eu-kommission-verklagt-budapest-wegen-rechten-von-homo-und-transsexuellen-a-1cfd55ee-8d92-40e5-812f-7d534b5a6e7e
Not only the discrimination of LGBT people might be punished – financially.
Also the destruction of Clubradio might cost the Hun government.
Maybe someone finds a source for this in English?
And of course the EU is also angry because the price hike for gas and electricity should have been discussed with them – just following the EU rules.
Orbanistan should leave the EU!
Of course we all know Orban will likely not leave the EU as long as any money is following.
But exactly that is the point – the EU will not give that money unless the rules are followed – at least I hope so.
If I understand the SPIEGEL article correctly Poland also will get no money.
I hope Mrs van der Leyen will really follow this course.
My feeling is rather that Ursula must be forced to comply with EU laws. If the EU did not have politicians like Timmermans and Freund, Ursula would have already paid out the money.