CPACK started in Budapest! An illustrious group of right wingers was greeted first by some priests (and rabbis ...) and…
July 15th, 2022
As I am not part of any Catholic denomination or doctrine, there is no way I can relate to whatever…
Since Melania and Donald formally met with the Pope I suspect her transgressions may also have been forgiven.
Melania Trump is a Slovenian Catholic, but it is unclear if she attends mass at any parish. It is clear…
But wait, Donald Trump’s wife Melania hosted a closed-door fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago not long ago for the Log Cabin Republicans,…
Today was amazing again in Magyarország. This morning I was thinking, that basically the families who followed the Viktor´s instruction to pop out a child every now and then up to the number of four for a one-time premium must feel quite bad with the new energy politics, and not only the energy politics.
Suppose you have bought a nice apartment for your family, six persons, and you voted Fidesz because he guaranteed the low energy costs. A nice link is this one:
https://444.hu/2022/07/15/orban-aprilisban-meg-nevetgelt-azon-milyen-rosszul-jar-aki-a-valasztas-utan-megvaltoztatta-a-politikajat
Furthermore, because you have enough children you also have a nice big electric car subsidized by the Viktor which you have been loading every day from you home electricity.
So, your energy usage is much over average. And above average will be market price (:
Now comes the new energy ruling starting from the first of August (in around two weeks). Ok you think, we will save energy to avoid extra costs.
And then you read this:
https://444.hu/2022/07/15/ha-tenyleg-igy-alakitjak-at-a-rezsicsokkentest-akkor-durvan-becsaptak-az-allampolgarokat
With the following sentence in the government announcement:
“The new rule will come into effect on August 1st, after which bills will be issued for the previously established average annual consumption.”
This means:
The bills can therefore be based on the consumption of a period when people were still using electricity and gas knowing that the prices were fixed.
Now, how fucked you are by this criminal who just increased the salaries of his ministers.
https://444.hu/2022/07/15/orban-viktor-650-ezer-forinttal-emelte-a-miniszterek-fizeteset
And this touching the wallet of the magyarok brings them on the street. (I hope)
Not solidarity with nurses, teachers, LMBTQ people, Ukraine, no, money brings them on the street, don´t touch my money. And as long as the petrol is cheap, we will drive as much as we can as is shown by the selling numbers of petrol. Just to show we can in Magyarország.
And to support my thought from yesterday that the Viktor will not leave peacefully this:
https://hvg.hu/itthon/20220715_rendorok_katonak_hatarvadaszok_fizetesemeles
The near future looks dark here.
It could be that Orban’s favorite people will have to “freeze to death” this winter in addition to starving. In any case, I am worried about the social peace if the middle class must starve … the question of who they have elected can only be answered with a ?
Come on, Don!
Don’t you see it’s the fault of Soros who sold all the firewood to the Slovaks, making billions that way?
Everyday I’ve seen hundreds (or thousands?) of trucks runnning from Esztergom over Maria Bridge (Istvan can tell you) loaded with nice cut slices of wood – leaving the Hungarians only wet wood, carton, plastic and old car tyres to burn and heat next winter.
Oh, the wonderful smell!
End of sarcasm …
Oh yes the Jews are to blame logical but after 2000 years boring. That the Hungarians are not ashamed …
Really notice it most when I visited in-law relatives in Dorog several times over the years. I think they moved there to have good rail service years ago. They do not heat or cook with wood but it is all around them, not just the Roma either.
According to an ecological ly minded cousin The Court of Justice of the European Union ruled last year that Hungary had breached pollution limits for over a decade in the Sajo river valley, as well as many other areas, which could be grounds for financial penalties unless reversed.
My cousin believes there will be no enforcement of the court ruling.
Istvan, my last comment was only half joking …
Last winter already we had that horrible smoke around us and my wife is afraid that it will get worse next winter.
OT
Did you know that Dorog a hundred years ago was a German town named Drostdorf?
My weather forecast still uses this name just like Gran instead of Esztergom.
More than 50% of the inhabitants of Drostdorf were of German descent and when we meet someone there they often proudly tell me that they learned German from their grand parents.
This is definitely a turning point and it will most likely be the biggest social unrest Orbán has faced ever since he came back to power. I am very curious to see how it will play out. I can’t think of new elections being organised and even if there were the opposition parties would be left with austerity measures that wouldn’t be accepted. Fidesz has placed the whole country into a corner from where it will be very hard to get out of.
Pester Merkur has published the following list currently circulating on the Internet …
“A list of how the service charges will change from August. On the left the previous individual monthly consumption, on the right from August 1. left block electricity, right gas.”
“it will be very hard to get out” yes if you never head learned to say no!
Hat … valami lesz …
Wake up call:
BREAKING NEWS
Orbán be akar lépni a háborúba, más nem indokolja a fegyverkezést
Breaking News? Orban has been dancing the Great Hungari an for a long time.
I have just caught up with the latest spat triggered by Szijjarto’s misguided intervention. Rescue and protect 150,000 Hungarians in West Ukraine. There is no evidence that they require or have called for any such. The statement has very serious implications especially as it must be inconsistent with Hungary’s membership of both the EU and of NATO. Neither can I see what purpose this nonsense is intended to serve.
As a side note I would just mention the man Szalay-Bobroviczky who is the Hungarian Defence Minister. He is a man in immaculate English style garments which presumably he stocked up on whilst Ambassador in London. He was born just Szalay, but has found some Slav ancestors on his mother’s side. An ambitious and wealthy man. I would not rule out a coup once he has built up some huge armed forces. Orban might regret the promotion of this guy to such a key position.
Don and Wolfi. I start a new thread, because the reactions are getting slimmer again. There are disappointingly few Fideszniks who are thinking of not voting for the Viktor again on the moment.
https://nepszava.hu/3163536_kata-tuntetes-szigoritas-marki-zay-peter-2022-07-16-riport
https://telex.hu/belfold/2022/07/16/21-kutatokozpont-kozvelemeny-kutatas-katatorveny-tiltakozas
This may change with the first energy bill after the changes. Although it seems that again the law was a Schnapsidee. Many changes seem to be necessary if they do not want to ruin families.
https://telex.hu/belfold/2022/07/17/domotor-csaba-rezsicsokkentes-energia-veszelyhelyzet
Well, until the next elections are still almost four years, so they have the chance to break many more promises.
Maybe in the end the Hungarians will recognize the fact that they have many new sport accommodations, around 4000 reconstructed or new churches, new spectacular museums, many motorways, a very high fence to Serbia, a palace for the Viktor, a new rich department in the population, but no functioning infrastructure like waterpipes, no functioning hospitals, no schools, a broken education and health care system, empty lakes, broken farmers, bankrupt cities etc. And don’t forget money that is not worth anything in the world.
The country went backwards for at least 20 years.
That will be the heritage of these criminals. I hope the EU has enough patience and good sense to wait with the money until someone else is in charge.
One more thing many young demonstrators in the twenties left the yesterday demonstration early because they thought it was boring. Now that is not very promising.
Hungary at its best, sadly…
I am pretty sure Jan that some of the tech savvy demonstrators who at least from the interviews I have watched were overwhelmingly either university grads or technically certified software trouble shooters and IT specialists were in contact with friends already working in the Western EU. I suspect their advice get the hell out of Hungary and get a real job in Germany.
Really even the small number of Hungarian immigrants to the Chicago metro area give that advice out freely to their younger 20 something Facebook friends back in Hungary.
I know several Hungarian university graduates who are working as pipe fitters for a firm that hires really only Poles, Romanians, and Hungarians here in the metro area after completing a union apprenticeship.
But Pipefitters experience common injuries to the back, neck, and shoulders, along with the potential to be crushed or pinned, and suffering from musculoskeletal injuries. All of these now skilled and highly paid union workers are aware of the potential dangers they face. But they still tell friends of the money they make over here and send photos of their 50k pickup trucks back home towing their power boats. Of course none of it is paid off, but it all looks pretty good from back home.
Yes, they do it different than the Viktor’s neighbour in Felcsút. He decided to go in business and not spoil his back.
Now he is the richest man of Hungary, and he just married a girl many years younger.
He never visited a university by the way.
Just read a brief piece of news about the lack of water in Hungary and how some municipalities around Budapest no longer have tap water and residents get water from tanker trucks. Poor management of the water distribution pipes is the main culprit here. I guess it’s easier to cash in the money than do actual maintenance or renovation work. Note this is quite common around Europe. The north of Italy has been hot by a severe drought and leaks resulting in an enormous waste of water are also responsible for shortages.
The problem is the bad maintenance, and lack of new pipes. You are right with that. The reason for this is the price cap for water. The water companies have to sell their product since 2012 for the 2009 price. Since then the wages, material costs etc. increased.
These companies have no money to improve the infrastructure and indicated this in many reports. They have been warning for this for years. I guess the Viktors neighbor,the Butcher will have to buy a pipe factory first. Then the Viktor makes it a case of national interest.
https://www.facebook.com/104750612016145/posts/pfbid02gHkwfh8Z7eR56bdBDdif5wGM3hA4XHRNfxG18Antky9XkxhHrXyhRusoRkoAomzhl/
Ukraine’s President Zelensky fired the Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova and the Head of the Security Service of Ukraine Ivan Bakanov. This is from the very good Ukrainian newspaper the Kyiv Independent https://kyivindependent.com/national/zelensky-fires-prosecutor-general-security-service-chief . In this article the firing is discussed in relationship to for failing to adequately respond to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, corruption, and most likely being direct Russian agents. Many other aspects of these firings and their implications are not discussed in this article, possibly due to military censorship laws that are in place.
But Zelensky is very lucky to be alive to be honest because in the earliest days of the Russian invasion an attempt was made by the Russian SPETSNAZ to kill him in the government center of Kyiv. Very likely Zelensk’s believed location was provided to the Russian high command by Ivan Bakanov who remained head of the Ukrainian Security Service for months after that.
It is not beyond the realm of the possible that the CIA, German, British intelligence, and other NATO intelligence services alerted President Zelensky of the penetration of his very closest security by the Russians based on their own penetration of Russian agencies. I would doubt the Hungarian intelligence services were even in the loop on any of this since it seems riddled with possible Russian agents itself.
One indication of this was the attempt by the CIA to get Zelensky out of Ukraine in the days prior to the invasion. He totally refused to do that and it was leaked in the New York Times by unnamed sources there was great concern for Zelensky’s survival. Apparently Zelensky did take the advice to change locations constantly at the start of the invasion and apparently his location was only known to very few people and his cell phones were throw aways constantly changing.
There is little doubt many books in the years to come will be written about all of this.
The MTI article discussing this in Hungary was purposely vague and avoids any discussion of Russian penetration. Telex has yet to do an article on the firings in Ukraine. Sándor Czinkóczi in this article https://444.hu/2022/07/18/zelenszkij-kirugta-a-titkosszolgalat-es-a-fougyeszseg-vezetojet does make a direct reference to Russian penetration in relationship to the loss of Herszon by Ukrainian forces.
The US newspaper the Wall Street Journal in an article this morning was directly critical of Zelensky and stated: “Mr. Bakanov (the head of security services) and Mr. Zelensky were childhood friends from their upbringing in the city of Kryvyi Rih and later established the production company behind the TV show, Servant of the People,” that brought Mr. Zelensky wide domestic popularity and smoothed his entry into politics. Mr. Bakanov later served as the head of Mr. Zelensky’s political party before taking over as SBU chief in August 2019. In 2020, Mr. Zelensky, referring to Mr. Bakanov, said “there has never been such an honest head of the Security Service of Ukraine.”
Apparently being a comedian is not good training for dealing with the realities of Russian secret operations.
Istvan, he graduated in law – what does that mean?
But he maybe was too honest to work in law …
I think this is an old story (but now available in English through Panyi Szabolcs), but it seems like Ukraine is not the only to country to have its security compromised:
https://telex.hu/english/2022/07/18/western-allies-puzzled-by-hungary-mild-reaction-to-russias-hacking
Magyar Nemzet almost got this story https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2022/07/harom-emberrel-vegzett-egy-fegyveres-tamado-indiana-allamban correct which is about a citizen in the State bordering on Illinois where I live who killed a rampaging shooter in a shopping mall. The article did get this correct: “In order to obtain a firearm in the state of Indiana, all you need is a valid ID and the buyer must be 18 years of age or older. Certain groups, such as those with previous criminal convictions, cannot legally carry weapons.
Indiana law was just recently amended, effective July 1st, removing the permit requirement for carrying and transporting handguns in the state.”
But even in Indiana the owner of private property can ban citizens from carrying a concealed handgun on their property and the mall owner had posted signs indicating that on the door of the mall. It is very unlikely that the mall owner will seek any prosecution of the citizen who stopped the rampage. In Illinois I have a concealed carry permit and of course can also carry in Indiana now that they have changed their laws or in the state of Missouri. Illinois has a high standard for issuance of a concealed carry permit including specific training requirements which in my case were waived because of military training.
But I do carry a concealed handgun in Chicago periodically in some parts of the city where crime is frequent and car jacking are repeatedly happening. Women are now in Illinois the most frequent recipients of legal concealed carry permits in Illinois and my own wife is a permit holder. We have entered a wild west situation in many places because of the breakdown of law and order. African American women are also heavily receiving these permits in Illinois too. Illinois may try to ban private ownership of so called assault riffles in our state, but lower capacity hand guns are protected by a number of decision of the US Supreme Court. Most gun killing in America happen with hand guns. My relatives in Esztergom during my recent visit when I explained my own frequent carrying of a concealed hand gun in Chicago were just stunned it was legal.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/ronny-jackson-gun-video_n_62d4f01ae4b0f69130316972
The Republican candidate for Governor of Illinois Darren Bailey is running a campaign fully supporting what are called here assault rifles too. Our current Democratic Governor calls for banning them which may or may not pass the Illinois legislature.
I doubt Bailey will win but he is from the deeper southern part of Illinois (Tazewell County) where even in Abraham Lincoln’s time there were a few hundred enslaved Blacks who were a legacy of the French colonial empire. Indeed a brigade of Confederate soldiers were raised down there during the Civil War and fought in Tennessee and the Ku Klux Klan terrorized black people like in the Deep South. (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ku_Klux_Klan_in_Southern_Illinois)
Really banning assault rifles will not stop the daily death tolls here in Chicago that are driven by hand guns, the favorite one for gang members here is the Austrian made Glocks.
Somewhere along the line, civil armament went out of control.
The modern NRA-groomed version.
This is outrageous.
https://24.hu/belfold/2022/07/18/novak-katalin-katatorveny-alairta/
This is what The Kati writes:
“Today, I signed the law on itemized tax for low-tax entrepreneurs, adopted by the Parliament. I thoroughly examined and considered the adopted law, as well as the comments I received. I did not find any reason why I should turn to the Constitutional Court. The legislator’s intention, the purpose of the change, can hardly be disputed”
That’s fine, I mean she is a puppet of the Viktor, and of course she signs the law.
But this sentence is insane:
“I understand you have questions. It would have been more correct if a decision on the amendments was made after substantive consultation. Even in the case of rapid changes, the Government can be expected to adequately help those affected. I had a discussion with the Prime Minister and the members of the Government, and I was promised that during the development of the detailed rules, reassuring answers will be given to the questions that legitimately arise.”
This means that they wrote a law full of errors, and the “consultation” they do during a lunch in the monastery.
She just could have signed it as expected, instead she throws oil on the fire.
My wife says she heard that Kati once was O1G’s lover – we don’t know if that’s true.
O’s palace has a “kis kapu” which she used.
And now from the silliest Hun news source I’ve ever seen:
https://hungarytoday.hu/government-promises-fair-wages-for-military-police-border-patrol-forces/
That obviously means that wages for nurses, teachers etc which are much lower are obviously unfair.
Are these guys really that stupid?
Of course “Hungary Today” has not a single word on the protests which have been going on for almost a week in Bp. They must think their English language readers are on the level of Fox or Breitbart or …
Orban cannot do without war (Street brawler) – without it he is lost – because he is and was a big fool – in Hungary state educated servants are committed to it.
nice words from the President, but no action in practice…
Maybe she forgot she’s been hired to conduct charm offensives abroad, not at home…
About one hour ago Zelensky did his TV address to the nation and said hundreds of criminal investigations for suspected “treason and collaboration activities” are underway, amid concerns about current and former Ukrainian officials working with the Russian side.
I guess this could be called a major purge now.
Katalin Cseh writes „The Fidesz majority in the Hungarian National Assemby just passed a resolution, calling to dismantle the European Parliament.“ 😀
https://twitter.com/katka_cseh/status/1549340470672777216
Euronews describes it here:
https://www.euronews.com/2022/07/19/hungarian-lawmakers-move-to-curb-power-of-eu-parliament
Lawmakers in the country passed a resolution calling for the power of the EU Parliament to be reduced, claiming it had brought European democracy into a “dead end.”
Passed by members of Hungary’s Fidesz party, which is headed by Viktor Orbán, the resolution wants to give the country’s parliament the ability to torpedo legislation proposed at the EU level.
This would reduce the ability of the European Parliament to make laws affecting Hungary and undermine the power of the bloc more generally.
Now I wonder whether the democrats will react at all to these illiberal ideas.
Maybe it’s really high time for Huxit! Look at the audience’s reaction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u3PP2IDAyZg
PS:
Giving more veto powers to the illiberals like Fidesz? I don’t think anyone in the other EU countries agrees.
German SPIEGEL calls it a stunt for the Huns – the EU constitution would have to be changed which means a veto eg would destroy the Fidesz plans:
https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/ungarn-orban-partei-will-europaparlament-in-seiner-jetzigen-form-abschaffen-a-6b784bf4-d228-4093-8889-fa66322fd16a
Seems the Hun government and Fidesz are going really crazy. What will be the next idea?
Obviously, this is just yet another stupid trick many Hungarians will fall for. At the time of the Kata reform, Fidesz needs to draw the attention of the masses away from the real issues. Sadly it might work again… sigh
KATA deserves a separate thread …
Just found an interesting site describing how people might react to the changes:
https://www.whisperingtree.hu/blog/rip-kata/
The next weeks will be “interesting” for Hungarians.
besides the lack of water the abominable heat brings a high risk of fires so some cities have already decided against having those idiotic, sorry glorious fireworks on the 20th.
But Fidesz will do what?
Re fireworks in general, not too much OT:
In my hometown Tübingen a few years ago a rocket from the fireworks on New Year’s Eve led to a whole roof burning – in the old city center, really dangerous for all those nice houses, several hundred years old.
So now fireworks are only allowed outside the city on the neighbouring hills.
So I have been looking at the weather forecast for Budapest for the next few days with high temps ranging from 37c to 39c, it looks like hell has arrived. Chicago is comparatively nice right now at 29c. Of course the family we have in Tucson Arizona has been at or above 39c every day for over a week now. Our family in New Mexico is in an equally difficult situation. Really even with low humidity in the southwest the sun intensity is not really bearable. The nights are also not cooling sufficiently to allow air conditioning to shut down and reduce pressure on the power grid. The vast majority of of residences down there are fully air conditioned but one has to wonder how the electrical grid will hold up. President Biden apparently considering declaring some kind of national weather emergency, I have no idea what that will do. No doubt providing funding for members of the native American tribes in the USA to do rain dances will work just as well and provide money for people who could use it. The novel “The Ministry for the Future” actually starts with a heat emergency in India where millions die after extreme heat and a total power grid failure. How the disaster slowly becomes evident is actually the best written part of that novel. Of course in the novel the nations of the world realizes everything is going to shit and begins to take extreme action to contain global warming and things start to look better by the end of the novel. Somehow I doubt we are headed for such a happy ending. I hope you are all keeping safe and as cool as possible.
Apart from heat-enhanced health issues and wild-fires, the resulting water shortages (very critical in Italy, right now) will probably keep many people busy in Europe.
Climate change and the greenhouse effect are a conspiracy theory in Hungary – or just “the way of the (non-Hungarian) world”. The idea that the climate debate is an exaggerated creation of “deranged” Western propaganda, is widely accepted in Hungary.
The toxic air pollution from burning lignite and coal is ok and the smog, covering most villages in the evening, is ok – after all, “it’s natural – It was always like that”.
Michael, the people here north of Budapest might think differently. Many villages and cities already found out that they have not enough water, so they forbid the poor Fidesz honchos and Russians living here to fill their pools.
Obviously it’s the fault of Soros – he sold all the wonderful Hungarian water to the bad, bad Germans maybe …
Here near the Danube it’s still a bit better. We have enough ground water from our wells to water the plants but if the heat continues?
I just read an interesting article about AC yesterday and how it’s being badly used in the US (and other countries too).
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/29/the-air-conditioning-trap-how-cold-air-is-heating-the-world
That Guardian article was very good in many respects and maybe too simple in other respects in its discussion of electric powered air conditioning. Thanks Theestampe for linking it to the blog. It was excellent in its discussion of over reliance on air conditioning in the USA. So the article discusses how people in many parts of the world with traditionally high temperatures adapt to hot average temperatures.
I lived and fought in a war in Vietnam and even in the 1970s it became clear that during the hottest parts of the day or during massive down pours of rain fall during the monsoons (gió mùa) things just stopped. In the south-west monsoon affects the country from May to October, and the northeast monsoon from October to April little fighting took place. The former brings heavy rainfall in the exposed areas, ie both the north and the south, while along the central part, protected by the mountains, it brings relatively little rain and leaves often space to the sun. Effectively both the Vietnamese communists and US/ southern allies observed informal combat breaks, heat exhaustion kills everyone imperialist invaders and communists alike.
Because of climate change and the pressures of the global market on Vietnam there is a dramatic increase in the use of air conditioning in modern Vietnam. Taking extended midday breaks from work (or warfare ) no longer happens except in some of the agricultural areas that are not yet fully mechanized.
In Vietnam’s energy sector, as temperature increases, demand for electricity is rising. It is estimated that a 1 degree Celcius increase is going to raise residential electricity consumption by about 5% and industrial electricity consumption by 4%. This article discusses the impact of climate change there https://theconversation.com/climate-change-in-vietnam-impacts-and-adaptation-173462 .
Here in Chicago we live in an 1888 Victorian single family home and we use window air conditioning that meets current energy standards but is as the linked article indicated still inefficient. In one of the rental apparent buildings I own I had installed a heating and cooling pump that utilizes cooler below the ground air to push 12.7 c degree air up into the apartments to help cool the place dramatically reducing electrical costs for my renters. This was very expensive to do and has limits on how tall a building can be to use it effectively. We use a similar system in our Wisconsin home but since our historic home does not have a forced air system it’s not easily adaptable to an 1888 home.
We are now looking at solar panels for our Chicago home and looking at those options. But my wife and I are higher income and we have the luxury to look at spending a lot of money up front for a solar system as opposed to borrowing the money as most solar conversions are funded here even with subsidies from federal, state, and local governments. Again thanks for the article link.
I saw today that it is expected to reach 40c in parts of Hungary on Friday. The last time it got that hot in Chicago was in July 12-16, 1995. The temp then ranged between 33.9 C to 40.0 C and the end result was a totally horrifying total of 465 deaths that were certified as heat-related in just the city of Chicago. Both of our daughters were young back then and our power failed for about 40 hours during that part of the heat wave. In the literal sense a power transformer on our side of Chicago exploded in flames.
It was pretty much awful and exhausting. Back in 1995 with far fewer buildings in Chicago were even air conditioned than today. Again you all be careful, drink massive amounts of fluids and stay away from all forms of alcohol and only drink caffeine in moderation.
We considered making a drive up to our home in Wisconsin which was about 10-15c cooler than Chicago but without power we could not even get fuel to make the trip.
Back to reality in Hungary:
A neighbour just told my wife that she can’t visit her son in the hospital in Esztergom anymore,
Because of the gigantic raise in Covid cases the hospital is closed for visitors. She can give a package to the receptionist, that’s it!
The danger of Covid, especially the new variants, are another reason to avoid fireworks on August 20.
Yes even here in the USA Dr Anthony Fauci who is Biden’s lead of Covid research got Covid. In fact he was sick to a moderate degree for close to a month.
There are many media stories about him retiring and he no longer is all over the media, he is after all 81 years old.
The panic here is over and indeed the hospitalization rates are increasing as are death rates but mostly for the unvaccinated. Treatment protocols are now established internationally and it is accepted a certain number will die from the variants.
Really very few people out in public are masked in the USA. When I was in Esztergom for a week I saw very few masked. I did not mask when visiting relatives in their homes and got lucky not to be infected. Hopefully when I do get infected which seems likely I will not be among the 10% of those fully vaccinated that end up with long Covid or the lower percent who do not survive. This pandemic will not end anytime soon.
Because of the intense heat in numerous areas of the USA people are actually indoors as much as during the winter. So there are aggravating factors pushing up the spread of Covid.
Kim Lane Scheppele who was a contributor to Eva’s blog on several occasions has published a long article about how Viktor Orbán won the latest elections:
https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/how-viktor-orban-wins/
Thanks for linking! The most thorough analysis I have seen, so far.
It would equally interesting to read analyses of how Fidesz’ highly selective, retrospective focus on the dominant national conservative value-politics of the inter-war period resonates so well with a wide majority of Hungarian voters today.
That and the popularity of officially reviving the 100-year old Hungarian revanchist political culture, should also be considered important reasons for Orbán’s grip on power.
Thanks
Really Scheppele in her essay discusses how Orban won, but leaves out completely how Péter Márki-Zay lost the election and the deep problems with the joint opposition. I do not want to revisit my hostility to the joint opposition lacking coherent core policies other than agreement that Orban’s Mafia state had to go.
Eva our late host did not see it that way at all and fully believed the joint opposition could defeat Fidesz. What wrong with the joint opposition is likely just as important as what team Orban did to win.
Pegasus?
More than 100 million people in the United States facing excessive heat conditions. About 60 million Americans will probably experience triple-digit heat as measured in Fahrenheit over the next week.
There are some US cities where for periods of time commercial air travel has been suspended due to the heat. The amount of lift that an airplane wing generates is affected by the density of the air. Air density in turn depends mostly on air temperature and elevation; higher temperatures and higher elevations both reduce density.
Beyond 117 F really non military planes are grounded. It is very close to that in parts of Oklahoma and other places today.
This story that appeared today on the US commercial news network NBC https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-russia-foreign-soldiers-invasion-morale-us-veterans-rcna39268 reflects the reality of the war in Ukraine.
I am not in the least bit surprised that US Army veterans from the Middle East wars have never seen comparable combat before. Heavy artillery bombardment is never ending and I only experienced it in 1972 at the Battle of An Loc.
There is far to much time spent in western news reports about civilians being killed in Ukraine while while significant numbers of young and older Russian and Ukrainian soldiers are being slaughtered in WW I style warfare.
Both the Ukrainians and the Russians hide the extent and reality of combat deaths and sever wounded from their populations. But give full coverage of civilian deaths, even the Russians are now doing similar stories in their media everyday.
It was just announced President has Covid, as is always the case here with elected officials he supposedly has mild symptoms. Of course he is not young or in the opinion of most observers in perfect health in relationship to rapid cognitive functioning needed for his job. This is not welcome news and his globe trotting seems to have resulted in very little.
President Biden that is
Is there a serious debate about why US presidential candidates must be so old (70+) in order to succeed?
That is true there is much discussion about that in the media, but mostly the more liberal media.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto today did a happy joint press conference with the pathological lying Sergey Lavrov the Russian foreign minister. Szijjarto told Russia that Hungary needs to buy an extra 700 million cubic meters of natural gas this year to ensure its energy safety and this is “simply impossible” to do without Russia. Lavrov seems more than happy to help Hungary.
Szijjarto stressed during the press conference that while his country’s storage facilities were full enough “for normal times,” since these are not normal times Hungary needs more gas to feel secure. Szijjarto stressed that negotiations with Russia should conclude as soon as possible as the heating season officially starts on October 15. Lavrov said that the Hungarian government’s request to purchase additional natural gas would “be immediately reported and considered.”
At the same time, the Russian foreign minister said he believed it was a shame that an “openly Russophobic policy” and the “rampant escalation of sanctions” by Washington and Brussels was hindering the development of practical cooperation between Moscow and Budapest. MTI in Hungary has not issued as yet a report one this joint press conference, but of course the Russians are all over this story.
According to the Telex report on the joint press conference Szijjarto said also “We want peace. We are Ukraine’s neighbors, so we face the tragic consequences of the war every day, continued. The war is very bad, and the Hungarian government wants an immediate ceasefire and peace negotiations. The later there is peace, the more tragic the consequences of the war will be.”
It was only a few days ago at the G20 meeting where Sergey Lavrov left in anger when the diplomats attending refused to take a group photo with him over his nation’s invasion of Ukraine. There were repeated shouts at Lavrov of “When will you stop the war” and “Why don’t you stop the war.” But now Szijjarto is happy to pose with Lavrov if Hungary can get more natural gas than it actually has capacity to store, possibly it will end up in the greedy hands of various Hungarian oligarchs who can sell it for a nice profit kicking back some to Fidesz.
Végtére is, mit jelent egy kis nyűg, ha van pénzt keresni!
Hungary’s government is getting even crazier than I thought possible. What do they expect from all these silly (wanted to use a stronger word but …) ideas?
Calling counties Vármegye now – just to think of the millions of times the names have to be changed …
The new name for the admins is so silly I can’t even remember it.
And maybe moving the counties’ administration to a local vár?
Demolition of KATA – bad news for many.
But on the other hand large raises for soldiers and police – no raises for teachers and nurses.
The list could go on …
The funniest point is that Fidesz wants to “reform” the EU, weakening the idea of common politics for all members but of course any change in the EU’s principles would require unanimity – a veto by one of those darn liberal countries would make any initiative by Hungary as irrelevant as the country itself is in the EU.
But at the same time Hungary and Poland want more, more money!
Someone described it funnily:
Hungerexit now!
No, that’s not a typing error …
Wolf, Fidesz’ idea that the tail must wag the dog – not the reverse – is the result of 4 political generations (election cycles) of compulsive inbreeding.
This has resulted in generations of political “talent” with a stereotype behavioural pattern: Running around in small circles, chasing their tails.
Your typical Fidesz talent now looks like this:
Remember the Panama Papers that showed how shell companies manage billions from corrupt politicians, oligarchs and others?
After six years here’s the first in depth interview with the whistleblower – very interesting:
https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/the-first-interview-with-the-panama-papers-whistleblower-the-russian-government-wants-to-see-me-dead-a-9f830d70-297a-472a-b0cc-9632ff2f514a?
And back to Hungary:
Seems the Hun government has gone really crazy – there’s no money for teachers and nurses but some people in government including O1G get a raise of up to 50% !!!
And the bunkó paraszt just sit there …
My wife is so angry – she has worked all her life and the pension she gets is kind of grotesque …
Wolf, Der Spiegel is a notorious right-wing hustler-operation. I can’t allow much credibility to their “sensational” breaks because they never refer to sources you can seek as an individual.
But official Orbánistan isn’t hiding it’s decrees behind paywalls, and there, it seems, whatever the Victor finds ok, will pass as law.
Seems my last comment was lost somehow so again:
Michael, no!
The Spiegel has been a liberal/left wing source for 60 years. I still remember when Adenauer wanted to throw the journalists in jail because they had reported on some military matters.
However the German high court set them free after a few days – since then we’ve had whistle blowers too …
You are right. I always get it mixed up with Stern.
Liberal, ok. But left? Well, perhaps by German standards.
Stern is ok for entertainment, not really political.
Funny story:
Almost 60 years ago I still lived at home with my parents and would take the train every morning to get to university.
One monday morning I was reading the new Spiegel when another student came in and almost screamed:
You’re reading a communist source!
His parents were strict catholics but over the years he turned into a liberal green like me.
Since I helped the USA invade and overthrow the Noriega government in Panama I can testify to the fact that we largely leveled the El Chorrillo section of Panama City and most of the banks were burned to the ground. More than 20,000 Panamanians were displaced during the invasion, and disorder continued for nearly two weeks.
Most of the businesses including the banks had insurance, but the insurers either went bankrupt or refused to pay, claiming that acts of war were not covered. So the USA rebuilt the entire banking sector post invasion Wolfi.
The exposé, dubbed the “Pandora Papers,” shows how the world’s wealthy hide their money and assets from authorities, their creditors and the public by using a network of lawyers and financial institutions that promise secrecy. But those papers say nothing about how the US government used that system for our own covert operations and allowed it to function.
The documents reveal that Mossack Fonseca’s clients included Saudi Arabia’s first intelligence chief, who was named by a U.S. Senate committee as the CIA’s “principal liaison for the entire Middle East from the mid-1960s through 1979.” Sheikh Kamal Adham controlled offshore companies later involved in a U.S. banking scandal; Colombia’s former chief of air intelligence, ret. Maj. Gen. Ricardo Rubianogroot, held shares in an aviation and logistics company; and Brig. Gen. Emmanuel Ndahiro was a doctor turned spy chief to Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame. Yet we are supposed to believe the CIA and NSA was not involved in creating the off shore banking network in Panama?
At least based on this interview Ukraine’s Zelensky gave yesterday to the US based Wall Street Journal there will be no cease fire with Russia https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-zelensky-says-a-cease-fire-with-russia-without-reclaiming-lost-lands-will-only-prolong-war-11658510019
He wants every inch of land back and it is very clear from his interview he intends on launching an offensive to take back land. While Mr. Zelensky declined to disclose total Ukrainian military losses since the war began in the interview citing military policy, he said they are a number of times lower than Russia’s. Ukraine’s military claims that 39,000 Russian troops have died in Ukraine, while Western estimates are about half that number.
I suspect Zelensky knows the USA and NATO will not support an endless war in Ukraine regardless of his bold statements. We do know the Ukrainians have allowed the Russians time to entrench and prepare for the offensive. The Russians have even brought in pre-constructed concrete pill boxes apparently attempting to recreate something like the German Siegfried Line that featured more than 18,000 bunkers, tunnels and tank traps.
From September 1944 to March 1945 the Siegfried Line was subjected to a large-scale assault by US forces resulting in massive US Army and German Army casualties before the line was fully breached.
This war has become a war of position and not of movement, and a massive bloodbath.
The conservative !!! German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine (FAZ) reports about O1G’s speech in you know where:
https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/orban-wettert-gegen-bruessel-und-soros-18194434.html?
Soros and Brüssel are responsible for the downfall of the EU – of course …
And many/most Hungarians believe that cr*p?
Today the Viktor held his yearly speech in Tusnádfürdő. the first one since 2019.
https://www.miniszterelnok.hu/magyarorszag-lokalis-kivetel-lehet-egy-globalis-recesszio-idejen/i read
I am not able to analyse his speech properly, i have not enough knowledge for this, but I always read with great interest what professor Balogh used to write about these speeches. Still, I will make some comments based on this one.
I think we all do not wonder about his lying anymore. But what amazes me still, is that every time this man speaks, he speaks war language, and I do not mean the actual war, but the dividing of the world in good, evil, rival civilisations, rival religions, enemies of Hungary. He never talks about all humans sharing only one earth. His speeches seem to be written in Mordor.
According to HVG his speech this year was one of despair, where he described that Hungary is a playing ball of the big powers.
https://hvg.hu/itthon/20220723_Iranymutatas_irany_nelkul_ketsegbeesett_Orbant_hallottunk_Tusvanyoson
In this article the Viktor is described by asking the other powers to do the right thing, namely the thing that keeps the Viktors power upright. These things are for example: money from the EU, peace, and of course respect, what these Fideszniks always ask for, forgetting that who wants respect, should earn it.
Some parts of his speech I found interesting were the following ones:
First, as police took out two demonstrators from his audience, he used the following words:
‘just as politely as the police on the Budapest bridges with the drug addicts’
this show in my opinion that he is very careful on the moment to use violence. Maybe he knows where this can lead to.
https://24.hu/belfold/2022/07/23/orban-viktor-tusvanyos-tusnadfurdo-beszed/
Second: His words of racism:
“”For example, in the Carpathian basin, we are not of mixed race, but quite simply, we are a mixture of the peoples living in our own European home,” he said. He added: the Hungarians do not want to become “mixed races”. the rest of th sentence then comes back to the Islam taking over in the “Post West”.
https://www.miniszterelnok.hu/magyarorszag-lokalis-kivetel-lehet-egy-globalis-recesszio-idejen/.
Third: Two times he spoke Russian propaganda. first the reason why the war started in the first place:
The Russians formulated a very clear security demand, which they sent to NATO and the USA. They demand that Ukraine never become a member of NATO and we undertake to never place weapons on the territory of Ukraine that reach the territory of Russia. NATO refused this and does not want to discuss it, and according to Orbán, that is why Russia is trying to assert itself with weapons.
https://24.hu/belfold/2022/07/23/orban-viktor-tusvanyos-tusnadfurdo-beszed/
Secondly explaining the momentary goal of Russia:
What will happen? asked the prime minister. “Russians speak such an old language (…), but that doesn’t mean that what they say doesn’t make sense.” The Russian representative said a few days ago that they will push until the front is so far that it is not possible to shoot into the territory of Russia from the territory of Ukraine. According to this, the more long-range weapons we give to Ukraine, the longer the war will be.
https://telex.hu/belfold/2022/07/23/orban-viktor-tusvanyos-beszed-kimaradni-osszefoglalo
Much of the talk was about the losing West, and that central Europe will be the real West in the future, by 2030 the Viktor can take the lead in the EU, so the usual blending we know. He even talked about “Der Untergang des Abendlandes” or “The Decline of the West” from Spengler 1923 as a prophesy now becoming true.
all in all, it didn’t seem to be very inspiring for the future, what “we” need is luck and good faith.
First thanks Jan for taking on the annual Tusvanyos task now that Eva is no loner with us. An additional thing jumped out at me as I watched the video of Orban’s speech. I watched this part of his speech several times to make sure my Hungarian was up to the task. So Orban said the first serious possibility of peace in Ukraine will come in 2024, when there will be a presidential election in the USA.
He did not explain why he believed that, but I think for unknown reasons he thinks no Republican if elected President of the USA would continue supporting and funding Ukraine. There are numerous Republicans who could run for President not just Trump and many of them are extremely hostile to Russia and see both Russia and Chinas as a threat to the USA.
For example Florida Governor Ron Desantis addressed the war in Ukraine back in March. Really all he said was Putin invaded because of a perception of weakness on the part of Biden. He never indicated he would push Zelensky to trade land of peace. Former Vice President Pence who every day looks more and more like he will run for President said at a fundraiser of the GOP’s top donors in New Orleans in March, that he was critical of those in his party who have not condemned Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Pence said: “Where would Russian tanks be today if NATO had not expanded the borders of freedom? There is no room in this party for apologists for Putin.”
Even Trump has never said since he has been out of office that he would stop sending weapons to Urkaine if he were elected as President. In fact for what ever reason Trump seems to believe Putin wound not have invaded Ukraine if he had won the election, because Putin and the Russians are afraid of him and his willingness to use military force against Russia. I suspect Putin is not frightened of Trump in the least and he know he is a fool.
This line in Orban’s speech is based on no reality at all as far as I can tell.
Steven Nelson on his Hungarian politics site also has a few gems from O1G’s speech.
Does Fidesz really expect Hungary etc to be the “New Central Europe”?
Without the money from Soros and Brussels these shithole countries would be on the level of Turkey or Syria!
Does Fidesz really believe the EU will give more money to a racist, homophobic, illiberal, generally undemocratic state which also considers Ukraine an enemy and is best friends with Putin?
End of rant …
PS:
Or do they really hope that the fascist like LePen, the Spanish and Italian (forgot their names because they are so unimportant) will come to power in the West too?
That would mean the death of the goose that lays the golden eggs.
And a reminder:
O1G says there is no money for hard working people like nurses and teachers – but his politicians, police and soldiers (anyone knows why their solidarity will be needed so much?) and of course he himself got a raise of up to 50% raise.
My wife got really angry at the way the Hun government is throwing money out the window. The gigantic fireworks and the building of a football stadium and renovation of a church in Tusvanyos cost so many billions of Forint – but no money is available for repairing and modernising hospitals eg???
I think he dreams that the good old times with Merkel and Trump return (:
It is like hoping that Christmas and Eastern fall on the same day.
Donald probably couldn’t have pointed to Hungry on a map and Mrs Merkel was with O1G just as long as Fidesz was needed in the EPP.
But in the last years even the clerical fascists in the CSU (remember Mr Weber?) realized that Fidesz was intolerable.
Btw all the important German and Austrian media report on O1G in Romania – and not positively at all!
Just google it!
Wolfi, the thread is getting very small again, I will react in a new thread
to Wolfi 24.07 16:45. I read reactions in other than Hungarian ones about the Viktor’ s speech. What bothers me, is that many reactions are about the Viktor’s bragging, not about the result of this propaganda in Hungary. The comments are written from the “outside” and of course ridicule the big statements. every grown up outside of Hungary with an IQ above 90 will laugh about his predictions, always 8 years ahead.
About the CSU not being friendly to Fidesz anymore, I would be a bit careful.
https://www.bayern.de/europaministerin-huml-zu-gespraechen-in-ungarn-treffen-mit-ungarischem-aussenminister-peter-szijjarto/
https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2022/06/szijjarto-peter-kulcsfontossagu-az-egyuttmukodesunk-munchennel
I asked “my” CSU man in the EP about this, and part of his answer was the following:
“Bezüglich der von Ihnen angesprochene Reise der Staatsministerin Huml muss ich Ihnen jedoch leider sagen, dass sich dies außerhalb meines Mandats befindet. Ich kann Ihnen daher keine weiteren Auskünfte über die Hintergründe der Reise von Frau Huml geben. Die Kollegen der Bayerischen Staatsregierung können Ihnen aber sicherlich offene Fragen und eine Stellungnahme zukommen lassen.”
He is on the right side, I know that, but the Bavarian State government has different plans. Business as usual.
That’s a rather short report – seems to me it says that there are “differences”.
Of course Bavaria wants to keep BMW and others to keep producing stuff in Hungary, but that’s all?
And the last sentence in diplomatic speech just means to me “We have different opinions”
Wir arbeiten mit Nachdruck daran, die guten Beziehungen in die Zukunft fortzuführen
Another scathing article on O1G’s visit and his ideas of “races not mingling/mixing”:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/24/viktor-orban-against-race-mixing-europe-hungary
Éva, on numerous occasions, pointed to the fact that Orbán presents himself internationally in repeated series of pretentious media stunts. Bordering on rhetorical extremes to raise eyebrows and attract negative attention, which is very easily achieved through internet media, a bad reputation in the neighboring countries and the West is what he needs, in order to appear more patriotic at home.
… yes absolutely right, as elsewhere (US,UK,Italy etc.) gameshow politics and political stunts have become de rigeur and have replaced seious policy-making… ostensibly to attract and energise ‘the people’… on whose behalf, of course, the politicians are acting against the elites…
Well, sometimes tactics that work for years can stop working when values of the civilized world are attacked. I think racism is a topic like that. The same as the joke about German experience with gas.
And all of a sudden things like bragging that in 2030 the Viktor will be in charge of Europe, and saying that the NATO and the EU caused and are prolonging the war gets news too abroad.
Even in Russia (:
https://444.hu/2022/07/27/orban-tusvanyosi-beszede-elnyerte-az-orosz-allami-teve-elismereset
Today basically Magyar Nemzet made Orban’s statement on opposition to mixed races and Hungary an article of faith for real Fidesz supporters. The article today in stand out quotes from Orban’s speech states “In the Carpathian Basin, we are not of mixed race, and we do not want to become one.
With this, the Prime Minister protects the right of individual human species to self-identity.”
So the political line now is clearly established that Hungary’s goal is a racially pure nation. Fidesz also argues that adopting such a stance is not a violation of the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union. That of course is to be expected.
Istvan, this is already all over the EU media and especially the fact that in the “official” translation for the European Parliament eg O1G’s helpers left out some of these statements.
Of course this doesn’t help Hungary, Hungerexit (no typo) is being discussed more and more.
Another parallel between Puti’s Russia and Orbanistan:
The war against LGBT “propaganda” is intensified – it’s surely no coincidence that the same people who want more rights for LGBT also are against Putin’s war.
https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/russland-druck-auf-schwule-und-lesben-der-zweite-krieg-kolumne-a-f8e8f922-0fd3-4880-bd33-19e8ef25b181
I think the closest parallel between the two states is in the propagandistic use of the old-school conservative values – to generate hate and paranoia, of course. But the local “patriotic” militias, armed, uniformed and training in public view, which are a common sight in Russia, are not quite as visible in Hungary. But the Viktor-mafia funds openly militant groups in Transsylvania, that is a fact. How/why they get along with the national authorities could be interesting to look into.
… why the Romanians permit the Tusvány jamboree is also something of a puzzle…
… imagine the Austrian response if the German CDU decided to have its annual bash in Salzburg or Wels…
Tusványos
Romanians ask themselveves why officially anti-Romanian political events are allowed so much much space and publicity in Transsylvania.
It could have something to do with local corruption.
…. for sure, and UDMR RMDSz is also part of goveerning coalition in Romania…
A totally different topic on developments in Hungary – surely more important than the rantings of its “leaders”:
There is an abominable fall in the number of students who want to become teachers!
The exact numbers are there but for me it’s enough that the fall is at least a quarter and many students also might decide (actually it’s sure) to look for other jobs.
Of course Fidesz doesn’t really care, they prefer uneducated, naive voters which accept every nonsense they propose!
This article about US weapons systems being sent to Ukraine
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/07/24/ukraine-himars-russia-us/
seems very well done.
But unfortunately the Ukrainian military is promoting the idea that the current decline in Russian artillery fire is completely based on their counter battery fire using rocket systems provided by the USA. So having many more of these weapons in the minds of the Ukrainian generals equals victory over Russia.
It could also be that the Russians are conserving ammunition for the long awaited Ukrainian counter offensive. As I posted the other day: “We do know the Ukrainians have allowed the Russians time to entrench and prepare for the offensive. The Russians have even brought in pre-constructed concrete pill boxes apparently attempting to recreate something like the German Siegfried Line that featured more than 18,000 bunkers, tunnels and tank traps.”
Of course the Ukrainian Army can avoid these new Russian defenses by the ancient tactic of flanking them. However, to carry out that maneuver according to retired US Army tank commanders who I am on a private blog with would require actually entering Russia proper and having complex logistical supply routes around the Russian positions in the Donbas.
Even the Washington Post article does not fully present the tactical complexity of this stage of the war. It is unclear what the NATO intelligence is actually showing as the prospects for a Ukrainian counter offensive at this time. Is it as we used to say in the Army is it a go or a no go?
This article published today by Reuters https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-fighters-standing-russia-way-101356398.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall controlled the claim that Russian artillery fire is decreasing state in the Washington Post article also from today. I guess if you talk to the Ukrainian generals for your information and Ukrainian combat troops on the front lines you get different assessments. Maybe the claims made by Ukraine need to be treated with some skepticism.
Western reporting of this war, Fidesz controlled media reporting, and Russian reporting maybe all need to be subject to some serious fact checking by readers.
These Fidesz honchos are really fantastic.
Steven Nelson and Ujhelyi István among others reported gleefully.
After the international media reported on O1G’s racist speech Fidesz honchos found it necessary to send an official translation by Zoltán Kovács all over Europe, the EP etc.
But they did not include the most important racist, anti migrants, anti German, illiberal (choose your pick …) statements he was so proud of.
Of course Deutsch Tamas was also involved in this ***expletive deleted***.
Do the Hun fascists and Putin admirers really think European politicians and journalists are so ignorant not to find these “untranslated truths”?
So in this article it become clear that Hungary will not agree with every other EU nation to reduce consumption of natural gas https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2022/07/szijjarto-peter-magyarorszag-nem-szavazza-meg-a-gazfelhasznalas-csokkenteset. In this article Szijjarto is reported to have stated the Hungarian government ensures that all Hungarian households and companies receive an adequate amount of energy.
According to the announcement of the European Commission, the member states undertook to reduce gas consumption by 15 percent compared to the average of the last five years between August 1 and March 31, using measures of their own choice. The decree also allows an EU alert to be issued regarding the security of supply, in which case the reduction of gas demand becomes mandatory. This is of no concern to Hungary under Orban because he is a good friend of Putin and only wants peace.
The problem now with any idea of peace in Ukraine is that Russian has yet again reformulated its war goals within the past 48 hours. According to a statement made by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov while attending a news conference with his Egyptian counterpart in Cairo on Sunday. Lavrov told envoys at an Arab League summit that Moscow wants to help Ukrainians ‘liberate themselves’ from the Zelenskyy government. No trading of land for peace seems possible based on that statement.
Orban also stated last week “our starting point is that NATO is much stronger than Russia, so Russia will never attack NATO. The sentence that they will not stop at Ukraine is a weak but understandable Ukrainian propaganda sentence, which I understand, because their goal is to involve us, to involve as many countries as possible on their side in this war, but this sentence is devoid of all realistic basis.” So apparently Orban is completely willing to have a Russian proxy state once called Ukraine as a neighbor.
Hungary should be expelled from both NATO and the EU, but that is unlikely and Orban knows that.
This NY Times article yesterday https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/25/world/middleeast/ukraine-soldiers-recruitment-draft.html indicates that Ukraine is having trouble with its draft into its military, actually just like Russia does. It is not surprising once it become common knowledge among the young in a society that going to a war is going to a killing field there is more and more resistance to military conscription in any society.
By 1972, when I went to Vietnam as a young officer the decision had already been made secretly by the Nixon administration to end the US military draft. By then we were in the process of what was called “Vietnamization.” I was too much of anti-communist American Hungarian to see the hand writing on the wall back then. I knew there were a lot of young men hiding in Canada from the draft including the older brother of one of my closest friends in Chicago.
War becomes real once soldiers on leave from a war start advising their younger brothers or now their own sisters too to stay out of it because the killing is just insane and the war is insane. Really its seems common for these soldiers not even to tell their parents the advice they were giving to their younger siblings. Young people including myself even having been trained for four years while in a university to become an officer have no real concept of what actual combat is like until they are in it. Then you are in a survival mode and responsible for those around you, or in the case of officers for many soldiers.
There are some people with killer instincts that embrace war, but most combat veterans talk of it almost no to one except other combat veterans over massive beer consumption. Really it was only after retirement from the US Army reserves that I could talk openly and more honestly about what combat was like, and it took the assistance of a psychologist for me to achieve that. It has been an enormous help in dealing with PTSD, better for sure than confession with my priest. Given the national pressures for defense of Ukraine on its draftees and the ideological pressure of the Putin Mafia state on its soldiers it is actually amazing to me that as much about conscription resistance has appeared after only six months of combat.
Zelensky who has never experienced actual combat continues to talk the patriotic game as does Putin in Russia another leader with no combat experience, but likely some experience killing people as a KGB officer. Real human damage has been done and there is not question that the fault for that falls on Putin for starting this insane war. I do not fault any young Russian or Ukrainian for evading the draft.
Since I’ve never been involved in any war activities I don’t know – but shouldn’t there be a difference between being called to “serve” your country to invade another country and to try to push back an invading army which destroys your houses, hospitals and everything?
This reminds me of the difference between the university students who in 1914 were so happy to go to war and push those Frenchmen to the ground (there are pictures of this in our university library) and the pupils, teenagers who were called to the Volkssturm to defend what was left of the German Empire in 1945.
Once the stories about how unfair who gets put in the front line get rolling the idea of patriotic service gets shaky.
Invader or defender draftees can get upset because many soldiers get out of direct combat in every war using political connections or just family wealth. Since I was an officer it was different I was required to report demoralizing stories being spread about Vietnam back here at bases in the USA. By 1972 most draftees were gone from the US Army, still the stories of how unfair dangerous assignments were distributed went on and on among enlisted soldiers and their NCOs. Armies are full of rumors some of which are not true and some are true. As an officer I tried to suppress all of the rumors, they spread like wildfires.
Probably the thing that frightens young soldiers the most is getting wounded to the extent they are profoundly disabled for life. Because like most young men they believe they are invincible until somebody they were peers with becomes a mess of wounds, it can be profoundly shocking. Then stories float around about soldiers who end up like that in any Army.
So a fellow retired US Army officer posted this on a private blog I am on https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-antonivskyi-bridge-essential-russian-supply-lines-occupied-kherson/ . Of course it was logical to disrupt the Russian supply route to Kherson by taking out the bridge based on the long expected Ukrainian offensive to retake that city.
However, the retired officer who linked the article correctly noted the Ukrainians used U.S.-supplied HIMARS multiple rocket launchers to hit the bridge, which lack the explosive power in their missiles to fully destroy the bridge. Hence it did not come down but its deck was pierced with holes, stopping vehicles from crossing.
Obviously Russian combat engineers are working feverishly to restore the bridge for military purposes. To take out such a bridge and bring it down the Ukrainian Air Force could have used their Soviet made fighter bombers in particular some MiG-29K fighter bombers capable of carrying a payload sufficient to destroy that bridge.
But the Russian air defense systems apparently in place make Ukrainian air power useless for a operation like that or an effective mission of no return according to numerous comments I read on that blog. It also raises questions about what level of close air support the Ukrainians would be capable of providing its armor and infantry for a counter offensive to seize Kherson.
Virtually all western military analysts are watching to see if such an offensive is launched against a more exposed Russian position. But a position that has now been heavily fortified by Russian combat engineers.
This story was aired in the USA last night https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/russia-ramps-up-long-range-strikes-as-ukraine-gets-precision-weapons-from-the-west. Access may be blocked in Europe since PBS has some deals in the EU for broadcasting.
The story was done by a PBS contracted reporter Simon Ostovsky (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon_Ostrovsky ) and it caught both the Ukrainian government and President Zelensky in a lie. The Ukrainian government stated on July 21st and on July 17th in the city of Mykolav Russian missiles targeted and destroyed what it said were civilian warehouses and a factory that produced children’s play equipment.
The PBS reporter found considerable evidence that there were likely 30 to 40 Ukrainian soldiers and officers were killed in the strike of a possible secret base. When asked about evidence the reporter was showing on camera the owner of the playground equipment factory said he could not discuss that because of government rules. The story also revealed that a woman who was a Russian agent in the town revealed the hidden base to Russian military intelligence.
What is obvious from this story is both the Russians and Ukrainians are lying about if a missile attack is part of a terror campaign on as part of a Russian attack or actually an attack on hidden Ukrainian military bases. I personally was faced with that problem during the US Panama invasion when Panamanian defense forces had bunkers in civilian neighborhoods that I was ordered to destroy by artillery fire from 105 mm howitzers.
Of course the same thing happened in US bombing of military installations located in Hanoi during the Vietnam war or in NATO’s attacks on Serbian air defense systems and military factories located in some cases in civilian areas from 24 March 1999 to 10 June 1999. In Serbia, 201 civilians were killed in these attacks by NATO forces. War is not a nice thing with good guys and bad guys, it’s a mess of horror.
Russian (Medvedev’s) plan for the dismemberment of Ukraine:
https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/151?single
Orban would get Carpatho-Ukraine on the white horse
If there not Mr. Trianon has his fingers in the game …
This article https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3576857-pentagon-allows-wounded-ukrainian-soldiers-to-be-treated-at-u-s-military-facility/ clearly indicates Ukrainian casualties are overwhelmingly the capacity of the hospital systems in Ukraine.
It’s an honorable thing the US military medical service is doing and hopefully other NATO countries including Hungary will provide similar assistance.
Yes, help is needed and available on many aspects and levels.
Hungarian children going to special classes in German schools eg – until they can return to their homes.
Many German towns, among them my hometown, are sending buses to Ukraine to help with their infrastructure.
This opinion article about Orban and his speech on race was written by Dana Milbank and titled “Opinion: A hero of the Trump right shows his true colors: Whites only.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/27/viktor-orban-cpac-conservatives-welcome-racism/
This article on the speech given at Tusvanyos and Orban’s comments on racial mixing does not understand that those views are not in the least fringe perspectives in Hungary. It points correctly to all the aspects of the speech that make American liberals cringe. But it does not touch on how much of that perspective is accepted in Hungary. This current more explicit racism being enunciated by Orban appears because the population has been fully indoctrinated by the Fidesz controlled mass media every day. Before he would make more oblique racist references but now the rubicon can be easily crossed by Orban and it is an article of faith of his party Fidesz.
For non-Hungarians, except perhaps for those with frequent contact with the language and the culture, it’s hard to fathom just how deeply rooted and historically significant the various “white christian only” doctrines are. Recognizing implied and official expressions of racial/ethnic and religious prejudices as intact and essential identity-markers in the Hungarian national dna, would more accurately reflect reality.
This isn’t a uniquely Hungarian cultural trait. It shows in all of Central and Eastern Europe and also in the West, but for any national leader in an EU member-state to openly express and reflect unconditional admiration for the most extreme right-wing racial and religious prejudices, is unheard of in post war Europe.
The Washington Post would do wisely, by recognizing how Orbán & Co., strongly influenced by the American far right, have rekindled an old, destructive nationalism.
Completely agree, it i in the DNA, and not even noticed as racism or antisemitism. Still, there are many Hungarians who abominate these talks.
Yes, there are many who are opposed to the traditionally accepted racial/ethnic/religious hygiene-themes, a large – but very discrete minority.
Jan, yes!
I can count myself lucky (???) that my wife and all her family is open, tolerant, accepts other countrys’ people etc.
I’m still not sure how many Hungarians agree with O1G’s racist statement.
But the positive aspect here is that people all over Europe see the Fidesz leader in a certain light.
Right now he’s meeting the Austrian Prime Minister and I’m wondering what they are talking about.
According to the Viktor about common interests to stop “illegal immigration”. (:
https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2022/07/magyarorszag-es-ausztria-fokozza-az-egyuttmukodeset-az-illegalis-migracioval-szemben
They can probably find a nice cool cellar where they won’t have to worry about controlling right-arm and verbal tics, before meeting the press and appearing almost normal and collected.
Austria, as an EU-member, might perhaps not officially want to back too much of Fidesz’ anti-Brussels rhetoric.
Ha ha – We all know the type!
Pester Merkur reported on the wood for schools and that the next step will be for every pupil to be obliged to bring three pieces of wood daily.
However I don’t know whether there’ll be a minimum size in the law.
Of course the proncipal and her/his helpers will take half of the wood home. That’s the way Hun institutions work …
That’s a joke, right?
Which part?
The one about students bringing firewood to school.
In the past until the 1920s this was normal in Holland too.
So you are telling us that Hungary is not 50 years behind the times but at least 100 years?
Seems correct to me – back to Horthy which O1G reminds me of more and more.
Exactly, my grandfather who was born in 1907 and lived in the then poorest part of Holland, Drenthe, where Vincent van Gogh painted the potatoe eaters said that they had to take pieces of peat in the winter to heat the classroom. The teacher’s house was connected to the school, so the house was also heated.
https://artsandculture.google.com/asset/the-potato-eaters/7gFcKarE9QeaXw?hl=en-GB&ms=%7B%22x%22%3A0.5%2C%22y%22%3A0.5%2C%22z%22%3A9%2C%22size%22%3A%7B%22width%22%3A1.7379862700228832%2C%22height%22%3A1.1800440134347085%7D%7D
https://www.geheugenvandrenthe.nl/page/12881/van-gogh—kerk-zweeloo
That is fully understandable, considering the times and circumstances 100 years ago (and later, during the 2 world wars). But for a country like Hungary, to adopt such a strategy, well into the 21st century, seems like a desperate and poorly organized move. If this comes true, it will be a testament to an extreme lack of social/civic resourcefulness.
The only things that are organized here are robbing the country and lying,
The rest of the regime’s actions are just short term “solutions” to survive the next month.
Just take the stoves in the schools. I assume someone (no one important) had a dream about the cosiness of the smoke smell in the class rooms in the old days. He told it to the wife of the Pinter, she told Pinter she had the same good memories, and Pinter the clever guy immediately made had some vague memory of an energy crisis and ordered schools to prepare for the “gas to wood change”.
It doesn’t matter if the stove/wood market is sold out.
Nothing (I guess) will come from this idea, but it is a way to let the people know how prepared we are.
Well, somone with the right connections could make a lot of money by importing the wood, especially from Belarus.
That one buying the wood in Belarus was the one with the dream, I guess. And the stoves from Russia.
The seemingly limitless lack of domestic interest in the governance of the Hungarian fifedom – in 21st century Europe – is a paradox-scenaio for historians and sociologists to analyze in the future.
As a bystander, it’s comparable to witnessing determined self-destructive behaviour.
So much for Hungary’s government pretending to maintain good relations with Russia so they can secure gas deliveries at a cheaper price. Are people that dumb?
It’s from the facebook site of Hadházy Ákos on July 22
https://www.facebook.com/hadhazyakos
There are many other reports there of the abominable Fidesz corruption.
If you can read Hungarian (better than I do …) it’s really interesting!
For those who read Hungarian this discussion of Orban’s Friday radio interview are interesting https://magyarnemzet.hu/belfold/2022/07/orban-viktor-europa-haborus-strategiaja-nem-mukodik . What is obvious from Orban’s interview is he is still promoting forcing Ukraine into trading all the land occupied by Russia for a peace deal, in that sense he is not different than old Henry Kissinger who has been arguing the same thing.
The problem is Putin and his entire team have made it very clear that Russia is in this war for the long run and its goal explicitly stated by his Foreign Minister Lavrov is the complete removal of the current Ukrainian government. I posted about this not long ago. Orban does not inform his radio listeners of that formal evolution of the Russian war aims, and of course he knows this. Telex also covered this radio show in this article https://telex.hu/belfold/2022/07/29/orban-viktor-kossuth-radio-haboru-europa-julius-29
I have a deep dislike of Henry Kissinger who entered into a peace deal with communist North Vietnam that was designed only to provide some time from the complete withdrawal of all US forces from the South until the North launched its final offensive in 1975. Every intelligence estimate given to Kissinger during the Paris peace discussions indicated that. Pragmatically he may have been right that the US will to continue the war was gone, but knowing what he knew he did nothing to save our Vietnamese allies who were thrown into re-education camps for years after 1975. Apparently he argued to US military leaders who believed we had an obligation to try and begin planning for extracting those South Vietnamese that it would just promote a panic making the collapse inevitable.
.
I actually agree with Orban when he stated that the war is being financed by the Americans, but actually I would put it that the defense of Ukraine is largely financed by the USA. Really Orban does not inform his public that the Russians have spent far more money on this war than the USA has. He claims falsely that the war and its associated sanctions lead to nothing. This article discusses an academic study showing exactly the opposite https://www.euronews.com/2022/07/28/sanctions-catastrophically-crippling-russian-economy-study-finds.
But I do not believe Putin cares much about the suffering of his own people and so he will continue the war because it’s absolutely necessary for Putin’s own long term political survival. He obviously has studied Stalin’s rule and has drawn some conclusions from that history on the need for being completely ruthless no matter the human cost.
That is why I have been deeply concerned Putin will come to see even a stalemate in his war against Ukraine as what the Russian strategic framework for the use of tactical nuclear weapons formally calls an “existential threat to Russia.” Orban avoids this issue like the plague because I have little doubt he fully knows if the nukes start flying at the very least the Papa Air Base which is a NATO base which is targeted, will be hit. In fact the base has an anti-missile and aircraft defense unit manned by the Hungarian military based on that assumption.
I have to admit that I have no idea how and when this war will end. But now everybody in the West and probably the whole world knows that you can’t trust Putin – just like Hitler!
Whatever he promises in writing is not worth the paper it’s written on.
So I think that his end might be similar to Hitler’s – unless the Russian political leadership gets real.
I have written several times about how my father as a German officer experienced (and luckily survived …) WW2 and that he knew in 1942 already that the Germans could not win.He surely wasn’t the only one but the war had to go on until the bitter end because the Nazi bigwigs could not accept that.
Now I just hope that there are some honest and intelligent people in the Russian leadership – if not???
Or maybe the average joes will revolt if the situation gets too bad?
Here is some info about Pápa airbase. https://www.nspa.nato.int/about/namp/mob
I live nearby. Also in the neighbourhood is Kúp, with an
air operations centre.
If the base currently serves the SAC program as described, one must assume, based on the non-partisan neutrality claimed by the foreign minister, that the Hungarian government has given it the status of foreign territory, and satisfactory guarantees of this condition, to the Russians.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/29/video-appears-to-show-russian-soldier-castrating-ukrainian-prisoner Really the filming of this, even if it was staged is really scary and there is little question the posting emanated from Russia.
See https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a36492032/how-air-force-turns-cargo-planes-into-bombers/
It explains why a NATO logistics hub on Hungary is considered a potential offensive threat by Russia.
Also we all know Russia now has operational hypersonic speed cruise missiles that travel at least five times the speed of sound (Mach 5). They can carry tactical nuclear war heads. Existing anti missile defenses are not very effective on them, they can hit them only when they reduce their speed very shortly before impact. So of course the USA is now testing our own hypersonic missiles to create a balance of terror.
Obviously those new missiles would be loaded on to the racks of transport planes if needed. Since Hungary has to be considered fully unreliable I doubt the U.S. would inform them that such systems were being deployed at Papa Air base during a crisis. I am sure Orban knows that too.
In March it was pretty much made known that at least some weapons shipments from the USA or other NATO countries going to Ukraine passed through Papa airbase see https://hungarytoday.hu/nato-military-aircraft-papa-airbase-transport-weapon-ukraine-war/
This article https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/europe/nasams-hu.htm:discsses the deployment of Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) produced by U.S. company Raytheon Technologies in Hungary. They are clearly not intended to shoot down missiles and air craft coming from the west. Orban of course wanted these defenses because he was fully aware that his could friend Putin could and would attack Hungary as part of NATO.
On top of all of this Hungary now has from ELTA Systems Ltd, a subsidiary of the state-owned Israel Aerospace Industries the radar system of Israel’s Iron Dome air defence system which provides protection from short-range rockets and artillery shells. See https://hungarytoday.hu/hungary-buy-iron-dome-radar-israel-army-defence/ Orban knows full well the Russians are targeting Hungary.
My husband, a retired fighter pilot, is not nervous. I too can’t believe Pápa will be a target for the terrorist’s nuclear arsenal. Countryside, too little victims and the material here is not interesting enough. The globemasters are constantly flying. Hungarians are included in the whole operations system, I was told. There are more interesting targets. And if the fascist terrorist regime decides to sent some bombs to NATO territory, it will be a suïcidal act. I think, that the response will be like what was decided during the cold war era.
I asked my husband about the hypersonic missiles, but they don’t give much advantage he said. I found a nice technical explanation here: https://www.sipri.org/commentary/topical-backgrounder/2022/matter-speed-understanding-hypersonic-missile-systems
Realistically, any major military supply hub close to the “lines of skirmish”, makes a high-priority strategic target, regardless of colatteral damage potential.
It’s true that the newest technology has a higher uncertainty factor than the tried and proven options, but that uncertainty makes for a much greater psychologial impact, especially if it successfully penetrates defenses, and all new systems depend on opportunities for realistic testing in order to develop the needed certainty.
I feel fairly certain, that if NATO would decide to allocate a couple of B-52 or B2 bombers, AWAC and tankers to Pápa, it would be a tangible cause for more concern in the local area than with the transport planes.
Hypersonic missiles would inevitably be a well kept secret, just as nuclear charges, and hard to detect. Pinpointing these weapons is, ultimately, a matter of reliable intelligence, which, as we know, is quite well developed.
Seems there is a troll active now using our IDs – his answer is always the same:
“great” or “sad”.
How is this possible?
Doesn’t he need my email address too or can anybody use a username?
Problem is solved. Usernames are not unique, the email address was not yours (or Pantanifan’s,) but completely different. So was the avatar. All from a single IP, a VPN service in the US.
István, thanks a lot for the prompt reaction.
Can we do something to restrict the use of usernames by other people?
You might have told us about this already, but I forgot – I’m just an old geezer but still interested in what’s going on in my second home Hungary.
Do we get a new thread tomorrow?
Putin went on another hypersonic missile rant today. I am seeing more and more pressure being placed on the US hypersonic missile program by military strategists for our program to be immediately from day one be nuclear capable. The fear of a Russian or Chinese hypersonic nuclear first strike is increasing.
None of this is good for the survival of humanity. The problem is if multiple hypersonic missiles are launched targeting the USA our window for launching retaliatory strikes must be near instantaneous.
The US current development program is huge and expensive with plans for the production of many such US hypersonic missiles rapidly. Los Alamos nuclear laboratories is developing new warheads see https://www.csis.org/analysis/us-nuclear-warhead-modernization-and-new-nuclear-weapons.
If you are in a good mood look here:
https://www.facebook.com/morvagy
Another Hungarian site with lots of bad jokes (goof jokes) about Fidesztan/Orbanistan.
That’s social media – but does real face-to-face organization against Orbánistan take place?
As I see it everybody (regular people, businesses and politicians) outside Hungary is laughing at Hungary – even those right wingers in Poland, Italy, France …
They’re maybe hoping to come to power but not look like Fidesz.
And in Hungary?
We just had discussions with some neighbours, they think like us and when they talk about the latest ideas of the government they “fondly” remember Kadar times.