Scathing comments on O1G as a prototype for Trump: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/11/23/trump-autocrat-elections-00191281 Musk wants to buy and "reform" all the "Anti-Trump" media…
August 15th, 2022
djT = MAGA? No, no, it's going more like MaBRa = Make america Banana Republic again
'There is homeland only where there is law, and the common people do not have law' "Haza csak ott van,…
"Cowardly people does not have a homeland" Ejhaj, igyunk rája! Úgyis elnyel a sír szája; Gyáva népnek nincs hazája –…
One of the reasons Orban succeeded in building his dictatorship was that the independent judges and prosecutors were too cowardly…
In order to be fair here is an article about current polling in Russia about the war in Ukraine from the Russian opposition https://ridl.io/if-nbsp-they-fear-us-they-respect-us/ The article was written by Alexey Levinson and a link to the polling data in Russian is part of the article, at least based on this polling data Putin clearly has the support from the overwhelming majority of Russians and the special operation being carried out in Ukraine appears to be gaining support as of July.
Levinson writes: “Fifty-six per cent of respondents claim that they are following the situation in Ukraine ‘closely’. Eighty-one per cent of respondents are ‘concerned about the current events there (in Ukraine)’. Nor can the optimism of the majority be linked to expectations that the special operation will end soon. Not more than half of respondents think that it will end within a year or sooner, while the rest expect it to take more than a year or find it difficult to name an end date at all.”
The polling data seems dramatically different as to expectations Russians have for how long the current war in Ukraine will last in comparison to Ukrainians. It seems both sides believe they will emerge victorious, it seems a little unclear whether the Russians polled have an operational definition of victory.
What does that tell us about the Russian people?
They are ok with an invasion?
They think that Ukraine belongs to them?
They believe that there are Jewish Nazis ruling Ukraine – who have to be killed?
But of course we have similar thinking all over Eastern Europe (yes, I know that Hungary claims to be part of Central Europe, but reality …), Asia and even the USA.
OT:
If I had realized 15 years ago that there are more guns in the USA I might have taken my wife to other parts of the world for holidays – but I really enjoyed the places I went to!
PS:
The craziest part of all this:
It’s often so called Christians who find it ok to kill everybody who thinks differently – does the bible really teach that?
I’ve surely written about it, that my last contact 60 years ago with a (young!) catholic priest consisted of him claiming it was ok to tortue and burn witches.
I was still a teenager but my friends and I would have liked to torture and kill him then.
My read of the polling data is the Russian population seems to accept Putin’s argument that Ukraine is part of a larger strategy on the part of the USA, NATO, and the EU.
The goal is to take fiscal control of the Russian economy and turn “patriotic oligarchs” loyal to “Russia” (ie Putin’s mafia state) into slaves of western capitalism.
On the gun slinger nation aspect of the USA Wolfi, it is true we are in crisis. Gun related crime in Chicago and many other cities is pretty significant. It is heavily concentrated in the Black and Hispanic communities, but the terror has expanded.
Now the Mexican military has taken direct control of the streets of two major border towns because of open warfare between drug gangs the Trump supporters in the southwest are more armed than ever. (See https://www.theintelligencer.com/news/article/Mexican-border-cities-hit-by-burning-vehicles-17371593.php)
My wife and I spend time in Tucson Arizona during the winter and going south of the city involved going through Border Patrol check points miles from the actual border that are fortified. There are also helicopter gunships constantly monitoring the secondary roads along with surveillance drones. Rural people down there, both Hispanic and white often openly carry hand guns which is legal. When my wife and I go hiking in certain remote areas of Arizona we now both carry semiautomatic handguns with 15 round magazines. But to be honest if we read reports of problems on some hiking trails we avoid them if we can rather than being armed.
I agree with the conclusion. What did victory mean for the US in Iraq or Afghanistan? Do current American voters think that the US “won” in Irag and Afghanistan? I personally have no idea who to evaluate these decade-long projects. OK, originally the local governments were defeated but then it was just impossible to control the local situation (though the Russians would likely be better able to control Ukrainians than the Americans could control various Arab factions or Afghan tribes). There is no good definition for victory in these cases. Although Russia is unlikely to go further than its current status, the Ukrainians are also unlikely to get their lost territories back anytime soon though I hope they will get them back at one point. The fact that crude oil is going down is a good thing though, less income for Russia.
Interesting figures in this report. I guess there is always an “electoral benefit” from going to war, I still remember Thatcher being very unpopular in the UK opinion polls before she launched a war with Argentina for the Falkland Islands/ Malvinas and then went on to win a landslide victory at the next elections.
I guess (as the Alexey Levinson article states) a lot will depend on the outcome of the war and whether Putin is able to convince Russians that they have been victorious…
This article below is part of a series that discusses the tensions between the USA and Zelensky over military planning and intelligence that I mentioned the other day in a post. At least according to some retired US Army intelligence officers NATO and US are now urging Zelensky to expand his purge of his own intelligence services that are packed with Putin agents.
Some of the people Zelensky has purged we’re actually critical to his own election apparently. But once you realize finally the people you see everyday face to face we’re working with Putin’s people to have you killed it’s pretty sobering.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/interactive/2022/ukraine-road-to-war/?itid=hp-top-table-main
This article probably should also be read in conjunction with the one above
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/16/ukraine-road-to-war-takeaways/
Of course Russian agents are still all over the place in Ukraine see https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-it-caught-hitmen-russian-mission-kill-top-officials-2022-08-08/ .
I am pretty confident that the CIA and other NATO intelligence agencies are busy killing Russian agents covertly in Kyiv when necessary. All such news or even speculation of such things would be blocked by the Ukrainian martial law currently in effect. On 20 March, President Zelenskyy signed a decree that merged all national television channels into one platform due to martial law. The Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council made a decision to implement a “unified information policy.” So their news is highly controlled currently.
So this radio story aired today on the National Public Radio system in the USA https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2022/08/17/ukraine-travel-ban-draft If one listens to this story it is obvious that the idea for this radio story came from this report https://www.humansecuritylab.net/news/new-survey-from-human-security-lab-shows-majority-of-ukrainians-want-to-end-travel-ban .
It appears the majority of Ukrainians do not support the mandatory military draft as it is being implemented by the Zelensky government martial law decree. Of course on my last visit to Hungary since the war started in the Ukraine I heard stories indicating that Hungarian speaking Ukrainians eligible for the military draft who crossed the border were being granted dual national status immediately and provided passports.
But to be completely honest I met none of them in Esztergom, but my relatives all Fidesz supporters insist there are hundreds of young Kárpátaljai magyarok avoiding the draft living in Hungary. There were stories and also jokes about the Tisza folyó swimmers on the days following the travel ban for draft age men. So hearing that radio story today brought those stories back to me.
History consistently proves, that while a country is under heavy attack and larger numbers immediately volunteer to take part in the defense, the need for replacement troops and personnel increases as the battles continue. Some will predictably, based on objective odds, bet on the attacker and join the ranks of that side, believing them to finally be victorious, while others will try to get away, wait it out and return if possible, and If not – Why not try another part of the world? The rest, who stay, face fewer choices.
Re Kárpátaljai magyarok
Why didn’t they leave ugly Ukraine for beautiful and successful Hungary before? Nobody forced them to stay …
Esztergom and surroundings have a similar situation actually re Slovakia. There are many people of Hungarian ethnicity living on the other side of the Danube, why don’t they move?
Many of them btw work at the Suzuki plant or the companies that produce parts for these nice cars at the outskirts of Esztergom and drive or take a bus every day, strange or not?
My wife’s young one told me that he and his colleagues sometimes drive from Budapest even to Slovakia to buy computer stuff – because the price often is much lower.
PS:
When the war is over should Ukraine allow those Kárpátaljai magyarok to return?
I’m not so sure …
The war makes an obvious difference, of course.
But the main reason why Hungarian minority people (generally) in the neighboring countries don’t move to Hungary, except when they get payed to vote for Fidesz, is very simple: Life is better/easier for Hungarians outside Hungary, than it is in Hungary.
Inside Hungary, they wouldn’t recieve economic support from the government for living “as if” they were in Hungary.
I think Ukraine still has a law against its citizens being dual nationals. That indeed could be a problem.
Orban’s unorthodox economic policies the much-vaunted Hungarian economic power, pride comes before a fall.
Hungary’s hobby amateurs get into trouble, self-caused no EU is to blame. Today the forint is 404 to the euro, at Christmas 500?
„”We continue to cap our issuer credit rating on OTP Bank at the level of our foreign currency sovereign ratings on Hungary, because we doubt that the bank would have sufficient capital resources to absorb a hypothetical sovereign default scenario,” S&P said on Tuesday.“
https://bbj.hu/economy/finance/ratings/sandp-affirms-otp-rating-revises-outlook-to-negative
The beat goes on:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-12/hungary-outlook-to-negative-by-s-p-as-ukraine-war-roils-economy?
Forint weakened on Monday after S&P cut Hungary’s credit rating outlook from stable to negative, threatening the European Union funding. The country’s credit grade was maintained at BBB …
406.8 HUF = 1 €
But Fidesz has other problems:
A movie on Netflix showed two girls kissing – horrible Lesbian stuff which can’t ever be shown to Hungarian children!
Of course a gay gangbang with a Fidesz leader and coauthor of the constitution is totally different!
In my view, Fidesz has a lot to do with disgust.
The constipated communication of the Hungarian govt. aside – Are there signs of weakening support for the government in general?
Or are people indifferent, as usual?
The parameters listed in this article are worth taking into account, regarding the new Far-Right members of parliament and their party’s influence on society.
Introducing the Far-Right Power Index | Balkan Insight
I fear Michael is right.
My wife’s family and our friends (including the neighbours we talk to regularly) have never been FFF (F*cking Fidesz Friends) but from anyone else you don’t hear much.
Seems like in the good old days of Horthy and Kadar – everybody knows their place, And don’t you dare say anything or revolt!
And of course the profiteers of the system with their shiny new cars don’t complain – except maybe for the noise and the horrible smell their neighbours’ old VWs etc produce.
Of course Michael is right, that’s why Hungary is where it is. And the easiest thing is to yell the EU or “Germany is to blame” that replaces thinking.
Possibly the Russians and Chinese can help with providing credit to team Orban. Since Orban has no fear of becoming a vassal state to Russia why worry and the bond ratings and Chinese are there to help too.
… yes and certainly at a “friendship price”. I don’t know if you’ve ever built in Hungary, but if someone says “at a friendship price” you’ll get it cheaper somewhere else. 🙂
So the US newspaper the Washington Post has been on a journalistic rampage on the inner workings of the Ukrainian government over the last several days. Today they ran this article https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2022/russia-fsb-intelligence-ukraine-war/?itid=hp-top-table-main
It discusses how deep the Russian penetration of Ukraine’s intelligence services were going into the invasion. It’s a long article that in passing notes 800 Russian agents have been arrested so far, and clearly many remain. The Ukrainian sources used by the Post also indicate many current Ukrainian security officials were originally trained by the Soviet KGB, but they declined to give a percentage or raw number of them. The article states only Ukrainian security and intelligence “employs an undisclosed number of officers who trained at the KGB academy in Moscow or its FSB successor after the Soviet breakup.”
Obviously this makes the US CIA reluctant to provide its own deeper intelligence to them. The article states: “Current and former Ukrainian security officials said fear about the loyalties of even senior personnel is a source of constant anxiety.“ By the way the Ukrainian SBU is massive the article indicates it has 27,000 employees.
The other aspect of this Post article that is interesting is the Russian FSB even with its high level of penetration in Ukraine could not complete its mission of killing Zelensky and putting in place a pro-Putin government. The article indicates a high level of corruption and incompetence among the FSB agents themselves operating in Ukraine. Amazingly the article indicates that the US CIA may have agents attempting to help purge the security and intelligence services of Ukraine. No doubt they have also looked carefully at Zelensky himself.
We know publicly from the Pandora papers, leaked to the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) The leaked documents suggest Zelensky had a previously undisclosed stake in an offshore company, which he appears to have secretly transferred to a friend weeks before winning the presidential vote.
Zelenskiy has not commented on the claim despite extensive attempts by the UK’s Guardian and its media partners to reach him. His spokesperson Sergiy Nikiforov messaged: “Won’t be an answer.” The files reveal Zelenskiy participated in a sprawling network of offshore companies, co-owned with his longtime friends and TV business partners. So I am sure Zelensky is considered by the CIA and other NATO intelligence services to be sketchy guy at best (used in sense I heard US intelligence people use it in Vietnam as meaning Zelensky’s own profile lacks completeness, clearness, and is subject to doubt or challenge).
The Kyiv Independent gave it readers today a very short summary of the Washington Post’s article on the Russian penetration of Ukrainian intelligence today. Here is its summary: “The key findings of an in-depth investigation by the Washington Post include intelligence that the FSB had worked closely with “prominent collaborators,” including former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych who fled to Russia in 2014, and Ukraine’s most high-profile pro-Kremlin politician Viktor Medvedchuk, to prepare governments-in-waiting had Kyiv fallen to Russia. According to the paper’s sources, Yanukovych was part of a group brought to Belarus in early March, while another group made up of former members of Yanukovych’s party gathered in southern Ukraine, occupied by Russia in the early days of the war.“
Totally left out was the depth of the Russian penetration of Ukrainian security services, or the statement that the US CIA was helping with the purge of the SBU, or the claim by the Post that there are still likely Russian agents operating in the Ukrainian intelligence and security services.
And now for the good news:
The fireworks planned for this evening in Budapest have been cancelled in the last minute like in most larger cities weeks ago.
If you want some “funny” pictures of the Hungarian military parading up and down this morning look here:
https://steadyhq.com/en/flyingmedia/posts/
At our neighbor, a foreigner, has a clerk from the gas mafia two weeks ago removed the gas meter after it was installed 22 years ago with all the necessary papers. It is a G4 clock which has a maximum of 6³m flow. The flow rate is limited by the type of measurement that can be read on the Internet. This person claims that up to 24³m of gas can flow through the clock and suggests that he has stolen gas, which is all a lie. The supervisor of Somogy was also quoted and said nothing about it. My neighbor has tried everything to get all the necessary documents at short notice so that a larger gas meter can be installed. He was told that he had to buy the gas meter himself (cost 100000 Ft plus documents) not at Obi, in a conversation with the supervisor of the gas authority, the clerk and the gas water installer and the neighbor. I was also there and listened. There is still a document missing from the gas water installer who is now on vacation in Croatia the case worker is also on vacation so just nothing goes. He unscrews the gas meter and goes on vacation. 😀
This is how it goes when a clerk invents stories and the supervisor of a gas authority does not have the slightest idea what is allowed and what is not. Meanwhile I know that it is illegal to dismantle the gas meter without the consent of the landlord. When incompetent people sit in important places and abuse their power. Our neighbor has had no hot water for two weeks and is now waiting until their vacation is over.
Eva our late host always found Russia’s ultra nationalist Alexander Dugin particularly repugnant, and wrote about some of insane ideas several times. She also discussed the ties between the now reformed Jobbik fascist Gábor Vona and Dugin. Dugin’s own daughter, Daria, has been apparently killed by an explosive device placed in her car which was going to drive her father home from giving a lecture at the ‘Tradition and History’ family festival outside Moscow. Really based on discussions in the Russian media it was a family fest for Fascists.
Of course the Russians are blaming Ukraine for this covert attack. Zakhar Prilepin a fellow Russian nationalist is all over the media calling on Putin to stop showing restraint in the war and take out Zelensky. Prilepin said of Zelensky “This comedy idol, this sleepy man in a T-shirt – he greenlights such actions.”
I doubt Putin has shown any restraint in attempting to kill President Zelensky, his operatives have just failed to accomplish their missions. I suspect more than a few FSB agents have had bullets placed in their heads by boss Putin for their incompetence. The irony of Putin claiming he is at war with Ukrainian fascism when he is a follower of Dugin himself should not be lost on anyone.
Oh by the way Dugin has a good friend on official Russian state TV named Vladimir Solovyev, who has had Dugin on his TV show. Solovyev now threatens NATO over providing weapons to Ukraine saying are NATO countries “ready to burn from the strikes of our missiles, and if necessary, from our tactical nuclear weapons.” What a delightful vision for Western Europe, no doubt Dugin and his followers will spare Hungary and Orban from incineration. Hungarians and Orban are really ok just connected to a bad group.
In this 2016 BBC interview, the Russian ideology is explained from the horse’s mouth.
Aleksandr Dugin: ‘We have our special Russian truth’ – BBC Newsnight – YouTube
Alexandr Dugin writes on his right-wing extremist site that sacrificing one’s children is quite normal it is an old mythical tradition … sounds like in Hungary. http://arcto.ru/article/1655 😀
A Hungarian military plane flew to Moscow (Kecskemet – Slovakia – Poland – Belarus – Vnukovo) today.
https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=477ff7&lat=55.576&lon=37.267&zoom=13.3&showTrace=2022-08-21
Unannounced visit?
Or taking a few millions of € / $ / jewels / whatever to safety?
It is coming back right now (August 22, 4 PM Budapest time)
It entered Belarus from Russia at 4:35 PM.
Correction: 6:35 PM
https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=477ff7&showTrace=2022-08-22
The same plane flew Orban to Texas for the CPAC speech on August 3.
August 5: US – Hungary – Dalmatia – Hungary
August 6: Hungary – Portugal – Dalmatia – Hungary
August 8: Hungary – Teterboro airport (NYC)
August 9&10: US – Kecskemet (Hungary)
August 15: Kecskemet – Budapest – Ankara and back
August 17: Kecskemet – Chievres air base (Belgium) and back
August 21: Kecskemet – Budapest – Moscow
August 22: Moscow – [probably] Hungary
Again, and again one can be amazed how propaganda and conspiracy theories have such rewarding results in Hungary.
In this article in the 24.hu they describe the results of an opinion poll of the IDEA institute. Three percent of the regime voters consider Russia responsible for the war in Ukraine. Even the mi hazánk voters are at 14 percent. 47 percent of the regime voters consider the US as responsible for the war.
Just think of what they are saying: the country that attacks its neighbour is not responsible for this.
https://24.hu/belfold/2022/08/22/idea-intezet-felmeres-orosz-ukran-haboru-mi-hazank-ellenzek/#
Trianon makes it possible … because the “annexation to the Reich” must not be a crime. Imagine the Hungarian history teachers would be considered as warmongers and terrorists.
I don´t know Don, if it has to do with the Trianon propaganda. This would just be a vindication to attack every territory that went from Hungary to other countries to bring them “heim ins Reich” with Putin as an example.
These numbers for me show that these people have lost every sense for morality. I suspected them of this for a long time already, but now it is confirmed.
The really bad thing is, if you want to change for the good in this country, you have to change the opinion and attitude of just these people. There were some small examples with the elections where very small scale intensive “door to door” information can work. But to change such a big group seems quite impossible to me. Even on how to start to talk with them I am helpless.
Jan only a young tree can be bent … here parents get into arguments about whether the child must say “kiss the hand” or not.
Well, if a Fidesz or Jobbik wants to talk to me about Hungarian poverty then I tell him immediately that Orban wants it that way. At this moment you have to take a picture. 🙂
(: I can imagine
We just visited our neighbour who is also in her late 70s. She told us stories from her home village in the East – no insulation in the houses, leaks in the roofs, the doors and the windows …
People’s money goes straight into cigarettes and alcohol.
Of course she is no friend of Fidesz.
So I wonder who are these poor people that still vote for them?
PS:
She also had heard about Mészáros’s latest activities – I can’t write what she thinks about him …
„vote for them?“ that is simple if one gets a salary or wage with which potatoes are affordable, then a potato sack to the election has little influence. If a sack of potatoes is unaffordable then it has its weight.
Case #1:
August 1: azonnali.hu publishes an article about the lavish, money-wasting July trip of Orban and his entourage to Vienna.
August 4:
azonnali.hu will be closed down by its [fake opposition] owner Ungar.
August 13: after an investigation by the Hungarian secret services, a diplomat at the Viennese embassy is fired for giving information to azonnali.hu
Case #2:
August 20: meteorological service predicts rain for the evening.
The “biggest-in-Europe” firework is postponed by a wee.
There is no rain in Budapest in the evening.
August 22:
The directors of the meteorological service are fired
Case #1:
https://azonnali.hu/cikk/20220730_meg-az-osztrak-szervezok-szeme-is-elkerekedett-orban-viktorek-becsi-rongyrazasatol
https://www.valaszonline.hu/2022/08/22/orban-viktor-becs-nagykovetseg-azonnali-ungar-peter-sztori/
Meteorológus Mihály 😀 I love it
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uhanDyOawQ
We are getting close to a Hungarian internet iron curtain.
2021: Orban and his fief buy internet & mobile phone service provider DIGI.hu (for 253 billion forints of mostly public money)
2022: Orban and his fief buy internet & mobile phone service provider VODAFONE.hu (for 715 billion forints of mostly public money)
https://www.portfolio.hu/uzlet/20220822/a-4ig-megveszi-a-vodafone-magyarorszagot-nemzeti-tavkozlesi-ceget-hoznak-letre-a-magyar-allammal-562349
Thanks, tappanch!
I read and wondered about the Vodafone sale but had no idea about the buyer – just a suspicion/hunch and bingo!
Re those flights:
I thought O1G was on holiday in Croatia over the “Great Hungarian Day”.
I have no idea who were on the plane.
Orban, Szijjarto, Hungarian defense minister, secret service bosses, who knows …
In any case, the guests were dropped off at [Liszt] Ferihegy, and the military plane HU-AF-653 retired to the Kecskemet air base for the night.
The Forint’s “rising” like crazy – now it’s between 409 and 410.
And consumer prices are rising even crazier – it must all be the fault of the EU?
Who are these people which still believe in Leader O1G?
I don’t know any …
The population of Ukraine is somewhere between 35 million and 33 million according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. The population of Russia is around 145 million, a little over 4 times the size of Ukraine.
Today multiple news agencies are reporting Ukraine has lost around 9,000 soldiers in combat (who were killed in action KIA ) based on a statement made by Ukrainian Army. As of four days ago the Ukrainian “official” tally of Russian dead, which is updated often, was given as 43,000. Given the relative sizes of the countries Russia’s losses based on Ukraine’s estimates relative to their population advantage are no where near some of the horrendous estimates being put out by western media. Using the Ukrainian numbers the Russians are losing the war of attrition based on population size by a small amount.
The US CIA is estimating between 15,000 and 20,000 Russian combat war dead and provide no estimates on Ukrainian combat deaths. If the CIA estimates are near correct given the Russian population advantage they are winning their war of attrition.
The US Army during the Vietnam war tried desperately to keep a body count of the communist dead. In Lewis Sorley’s book A Better War, published in 1999 after studies of voluminous previously-secret papers of General Creighton Abrams (my commanding General back in 2973) Sorley wrote: “Body count may have been the most corrupt – and corrupting – measure of progress in the whole mess. Certainly the consensus of senior Army leaders, the generals who commanded in Vietnam, strongly indicates that it was. A survey found that sixty-one percent of officers believed that the body count was often inflated. Typical comments by the respondents were that it was ‘a fake – totally worthless’, that ‘the immensity of the false reporting is a blot on the honor of the Army.” My own comment on the question of the accuracy of our death counts in 1972 in the survey cited in A Better War was simple, it was back then it was a FUBAR (Fucked Up Beyond All Repair/Recognition) in my comment. A lot of us just put down FUBAR.
I feel the same about what I am seeing being reported today in the media about this war.
„my commanding General back in 2973“ Sciencefiction?
Typo 1972 I have no idea why that came out
Probably the number of your credit card.
Hungary is getting funnier and funnier – at least if you believe the international media.
Austrian and German media are filled with bad jokes about the cancelled fireworks and the weather service whose leaders were thrown out after their forecast.
And also there are many joke on O1G being in Croatia this day.
Now the biggest joke would be having rain and storms next Saturday when the fireworks are going to happen – maybe …
Bloomberg reports on Vodaphone’s reasoning for selling its Hungarian business to Mészáros and the Hungarian state.
https://www.bloomberg.com/technology
Hungary responds to EU rule of law procedure (“we need your euros!”)
https://telex.hu/english/2022/08/23/hungary-sends-reply-to-the-eu-commission-on-rule-of-law-issues
and I’m sure most of you have seen this story already, Hungarian government politics in a nutshell: https://telex.hu/english/2022/08/23/hungarys-top-weather-experts-fired-for-wrong-forecast-on-national-holiday
Yes there was a major article in the Washington Post this morning about it.
The basic Hungarian problem with presenting documentation for the use of EU-money, is that it must meet certain EU standards of authenticity, digital or otherwise.
Since Orbánomics doesn’t comply with those standards of bookkeeping, there are big problems with the EU cashiers. Simple as that!
The Forint just “rose” to 414 against the €.
If this goes on …
As long as the curve is stable…Remember the old days of Liras and Pesetas?
The problem for most Hungarians is that a lot of products in the shops are imported and priced in euros and even companies making local products have increased costs due to the end of support for utility bills and the petrol price is now at market level for companies (only subsidized for private individuals).
In other words prices in the shops are increasing noticeably every 2-3 weeks…
Although there seems to be increasing frustration at the government (farmers driving tractors wanted to protest at the August 20th celebrations but the event was infamously called off due to the weather forecast), I can’t see any evidence of the opposition benefitting from this frustration.
Somehow, the opposition has to find a way of campaigning together in the 4 years between elections and it would help if there was a strong, unifying, charismatic leader full of energy and able to take the campaign into people’s living rooms all over the country (dream on Pantanifan!!!)
Besides the general trend (I remember still when 1 DM = 90 HUF. later 1 € = 250 HUF) there’s this crazy jumping up and down. In one day it might go from 406 to 414 or the other way round. That’s 2% in one day – surely not normal? Though I’m not an expert there …
There was a fairly serious debate among retired high ranking US Army officers formerly assigned to NATO’s high command last night over this report https://www.iswresearch.org/2022/08/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment_24.html?m=1
The divide was in particular over the Russian territorial retreat from the areas occupied nearest Kyiv and how ISW characterized it. Many of these officers saw this as a rational redeployment of Russian forces, others saw it as a significant defeat for Russian forces. There was no clear consensus of opinion.
„Many of these officers saw this as a rational redeployment of Russian forces, others saw it as a significant defeat for Russian forces.“ It is not that one excludes the other. If Shoigu or Orban or Putin says anything, I know it’s a lie from start to finish.
Everyone is lying over the Ukrainian situation now. Zelensky, and NATO too, and on and on.
But the slaughter marches on and on with no end in sight. Of course Russia, Ukraine, and the NATO alliance are spending billions and billions on Putin’s insane war.
Just yesterday Russia launched a deadly missile attack on a train station and residential area in a town 300 miles to the southeast of Kyiv killing at least 25 people and wounding dozens more.
President Zelensky responded last night : “We will definitely make the occupiers bear responsibility for everything they have done. And we will certainly drive the invaders out of our land.” No doubt that goal will not be realized any too fast, if at all, and will require many more dead Russians and Ukrainians.
Today Putin doubled down on the War https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/putin-orders-increase-russian-armed-forces-ukraine-war-rcna44774. More bodies for the gristmill.
About the only good news here is that everybody now has to accept the cruel concepts of Russia (or better Putinistan) and everybody who has still some sympathy with him shows their real views, whether it’s the French or German or Italian or Hungarian extreme right or sometimes even the left.
And counties like China or India …
Yes Putin goes over corpses, Orban in a way also … and everyone who reports to the war like you. But the point is Putin attacked Ukraine for no reason no matter what his justification is.
The Russian justification for the attack on the rail station was Ukrainian troops were getting on trains to go to combat and supposedly 200 were killed. The Ukrainians have not commented on that because military death information is secret.
Here is the truly tragic thing under the Geneva Convention’s 1977, Protocol adopted as an amendment to the Geneva Conventions, prohibiting the deliberate or indiscriminate attack of civilians and civilian objects in the war-zone and the attacking force must take precautions and steps to spare the lives of civilians and civilian objects as possible. Although ratified by 173 countries, the only countries that are currently not signatories to Protocol I are the United States, Israel, Iran, Pakistan, India, and Turkey. There is some irony in that given US newspapers never note that when discussing war crimes. Russia is a signatory but pays little attention to Protocol I.
So called Collateral damage is defined in terms of armed conflict as unavoidable or accidental killing or injury of non-combatants or unavoidable or accidental destruction of non-combatant property caused by attacks on legitimate military targets. This provision is an escape clause for Russia too.
“Collateral damage” I know under Friend (Own) Fire
I assume you have all heard about the study published by Hungary’s State Audit Office about how women being over-represented in higher education causes a demographic challenge and puts men at a disadvantage in education. Simply crazy.
I’ve read/heard many times that more women with higher education degrees means higher GDP. And clearly, Hungary’s birth rate will never go up as long as Fidesz is in power: the prospects for a decent future are just too grim for most parents, the low wages combined with a high cost of living reduces the chances for couples to have many children, not to mention the lack of investment in primary/secondary education or child daycare availabilities.
In the past it was the Jews – today it is the women … simple solution for “highly intelligent” white Christian Hungarian men a decree that regulates the university access of women. The alleged rich culture of Hungarians I have been looking for 24 years.
More women than men in higher education has been a trend in Europe for at least thirty years.
The special (self-isolating) Hungarian media-enviroment might want to present this as something new, but I doubt if there is much difference from general EU statistics, because grades are grades and women generally score better on average, which can be translated direcly to more qualified female University students.
But – Given the misogynic attitude, normally displayed by Fidesz officials – it could well lead to actual discriminatory legal measures against Hungarian women in higher education – which (by order of present-day relevance) leads to – the military – What is the Hungarian Defense Ministery doing, in order to recruit and promote the obvious (female) talent to the academies and the front line?? Is there an awareness of human resources i this respect??
Since I learned about this on Twitter, I have no clue as to how this was publicised in Hungary and what the reactions were (I suspect none or hardly…) Needless to say the news on Twitter was not well received but since it was in English, it’s mostly foreigners who were reacting. Anyone can comment about HU?
Of course a tiszta magyar needs an asszonyság which follows his orders, promptly!
The international media have found this typical Hun idiocy too and are reporting on it – crazy does as crazy goes.
German Spiegel reports on it:
Women are the new Jews …
And intelligent and educated women have problems finding a partner in Hungary.
https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/bildung/ungarn-rechnungshof-beklagt-hohen-frauenanteil-an-unis-a-c5dcde17-04ad-479e-8af8-e2ed635b7f7a
I first heard about it from your post, but there was something on telex.hu earlier today/yesterday (which has now been translated into English here): https://telex.hu/english/2022/08/25/the-state-audit-office-worries-that-too-many-women-getting-university-education-will-lead-to-less-children-being-born
The opposition is probably just as divided on the issue of women’s rights as they are on many other issues and they don’t believe there are many votes to be won through “political correctness”, so the agenda is more likely to be picked up by Fidesz – as in today’s news: https://telex.hu/belfold/2022/08/26/novak-katalin-gyermekvallalas-karrier-munka-vatikan
President Novák Katalin told Vatican Radio that “it’s not worth women giving up on having children just because they enjoy their work”
A Russian soldier from Siberia explains what his unit and he personally did in an occupied village close to Kiev in March (English subtitles)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rudUGZxIU6E
You have shortened transcripts on Twitter too.
There is also now out Pavel Filatyev’s memoir ZOV, which he published on his Vkontakte social media page on 1 August. ZOV, named after the tactical markings painted on Russian army vehicles that have been adopted as a pro-war symbol. These confessions by Russian combat infantry remind me a great deal of those from US infantry who were in Vietnam.
War is a universal horror for soldiers and lower ranking officers. PTSD is pervasive among combatants. When visiting Vietnam I met a former combat veteran of the North Vietnamese Army (NVA). He too wrote a book published illegally in Vietnam and translated into English. I bought a copy and it was stunning to read his descriptions of being ripped apart by artillery fire in the Battle of An Loc that I personally may have been commanding.
Many combatants from Ukraine will be living with nightmares for ever. Indeed all of these years after the US war in Vietnam I still read reports of combat veterans shooting themselves due to depression. I think I am very lucky to have gotten good psychological support from the US veterans administration.
Euractiv writes „While Hungary has recently elected its first woman as president, Katalin Novak, it has only one woman serving as a minister in the government, which puts it in second to last place in the European Union.“
because
The report „It warned that if boys who, it said, are more inclined to be entrepreneurial and take risks are not allowed to develop unfettered they will be at risk of “mental and behavioural problems”. “
… mental and behavioural problems … 😀 is that woman blaming blaming?
President Biden on Thursday night Introduced apparently what he thought was a new concept to characterize the pro-Trump Republican ideology “it’s like semi-fascism.” US politicians from the Democratic Party really need to sit down and read Balint Magyar‘s books on the Hungarian Mafia State and the role of oligarchs and greed in that system.
Joe Biden when a Senator from Delaware helped create protections for US corporations from taxation for companies that incorporated in Delaware. Currently Delaware, is home to more than half the businesses in the Fortune 500, it became America’s top destination for corporate headquarters by raising taxes on the businesses that operate there. The state is famous for its favorable tax laws, including no sales tax, no corporate income tax on revenue earned outside of Delaware, and no corporate income tax on investment earnings.
Many of the CEOs of these companies are ardent supporters of the Trump movement. In fact Trump himself has used Delaware tax laws fully promoted by Biden see https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/25/delaware-tax-loophole-1209-north-orange-trump-clinton as do rich Democrats.
Biden’s semi fascism characterization of the Trump movement fully avoids how many of the very wealthy in America benefited from the Trump presidency economically. Balint Magyar‘s analysis does not try to separate the ideological superstructure from the economic underpinning of corrupt wealth that helped create Orban’s Mafia state. Biden along with many other Democrats have helped with the greater concentration of wealth here in the USA by supporting taxation that benefits the richest Americans and propelled Trump as the ideological master of wealth accumulation as a core value of his movement. Of course like in Hungary the poor actually benefit very little from wealth accumulation.
A very interesting article on China’s silk road concept – what will this mean for Fidesz and Hungary which thought they might profit from this?
It seems almost that China is running out of money to finance all this stuff.
https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/road-to-nowhere-debts-mount-with-china-s-prestigious-silk-road-project-a-74d6c558-34b2-4bd7-baa8-da8577d75feb?
Very interesting article indeed, thanks for sharing Wolfi!
Another story all over the media:
It was just found out that Katerina Tichonowa, Putin’s younger daughter, has spent a lot of holidays over the last 20 years in Bavaria (Munich and the Alpine lakes) and other places all over the world where the rich and famous go.
And she was generally accompanied by her bodyguards from the Russian KGB – with weapons …
But of course nobody knew about this officially.
Is it a coincidence that this happened while the Christian Fascists ruled in Germany?
Btw the CSU is still ruling Bavaria and a few years ago they wanted a law that every offcial state building (like schools eg) needed a crucifix near the entrance
OT:.
Other prominent people also live in/near Munich most of their time like the king of Thailand with his mistresses …
It’s getting crazier and crazier:
Dutch fascist politician Geert Wilders just got the Hungarian order of merit
https://hungarytoday.hu/geert-wilders-awarded-hungarian-order-of-merit/
Orban gives permission to build Paks two and gets gas and oil in return? The Danube has too little water and Paks 1 heats up the Danube by more than the “prescribed” 30 degrees and thus endangers the fauna. France has a similar problem, and half of its more than 50 nuclear power plants are under revision.
At least from today’s perspective, Germany has made a big mistake by becoming far too dependent on Putin.
Nuclear power is not a promising form of energy generation, and the issue of “final storage” is still unresolved. And I don’t know of any material that will last 50,000 years without corrosion. That means also one cannot “final storage”. Future is something else!
Let’s look again at Éva’s entry on the Paks deal, from March 2014.
A brief summary of the Russian-Hungarian agreement on the Paks nuclear power plant – Hungarian Spectrum
8 years after Eva’s article, everything looks a bit worse. 10 billion is also not as much as it was back then.
That’s true Don!
If Orbán took any qualified advice (which I can’t imagine he did) before agreeing to the deal, instead of gambling blindly on a dark horse – like taking an online-loan for staying in a late night game of poker – he would at least have secured an upper limit for the validity of the transaction.
Easy come – easy go, as they say!
Paks2 billing.
Only in the case of Hungary, easy come is Russian credit and easy go is taxpayers’ money. Hungary is the comes goes country … Jött ment Ország.
I wonder how many bows and hand-licks the Ursula and co. will take, to eat that Hungarian “dessert”. 😉
I don’t think Ursula and the EU leaders are happy with O giving that order of merit to well known fascist Geert Wilders.
If he and his friends like LePen, Salvini etc should become a majority in the EU – then good night Europe!
Let’s not forget that it was thanks to Commissioner Günther Oettinger that the European Commission approved the deal. This was under the previous legislation and Orbán was benefiting from Angela Merkel’s and EPP’s protection but still. I suspect Paks II is a lesser concern nowadays than the state of the rule of law and democracy in HU for the EC.
Don’t even mention Oettinger!
He’s one of the ugliest fascists around. He wanted crucifixes in every school or office
Even the CDU was very happy to see him gone.
PS:
His ugly behaviour might have been one of the reasons why the Christian fascists are no longer part of the German government, congratulations!
Sorry, I mixed him up first
Poland and Czech Republic protect Slovak airspace
The three countries signed an agreement to this effect on Saturday. The Slovak defense minister calls it proof of a “strong friendship”.
😀 is someone missing?
The Visegrád One? 😉
The article only talks about the Czech and Polish air forces agreeing to cover Slovak air space, while the Slovaks replace their obsolete Soviet-era fleet of fighter planes. This would involve higher levels of integration between the three air forces, coordinated training exercises, stationing of personnel and material, etc.
Knowing Orbán’s counterproductive stances on cooperation within NATO, they probably keep Hungary out of the equation altogether – And logically, reach out to Romania and Italy, for watching their backs while operating over Slovakia.
Don’t forget the Hungarian Air Force is very small. I remember one of Eva’s post about how the lack of practice for the pilots lead to a fighter being accidented during a routine flight.
I found the original post on HS: https://hungarianspectrum.org/2015/06/17/no-rest-for-the-weary-a-busy-summer-in-hungarian-politics/
If the HUAF today is at the level described by Éva seven years ago, they simply don’t qualify for any strategic service in NATO joint operations. I can’t imagine how they could assist the Scandinavian and Birtish air forces that are currently running the show in the three Baltic states, in the present state of alert. Except with transports and on the ground, perhaps.
Yes without question Hungary can’t effectively defend its self against an attack by Russia. Obviously Orban believes being nice to Putin will prevent any attack if there ever is a direct conflict between NATO and Russia.
Putin no doubt will allow Orban to rule much like Alexander Lukashenko does if Russia was to win a direct conflict with NATO. I think such a victory by Russia would be unlikely without a nuclear exchange and then what would be left would not be pretty.
But Orban I am sure know’s Putin would want a cut of money from the Hungarian Mafia state as tribute, that Orban would not like. So right now he is the best of all worlds.
You mean Putin’s Trojan Horse in the EU?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/28/putin-is-trapped-and-desperate-will-his-friends-in-the-west-rescue-him-russia-ukraine
More on this:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/03/hungary-orban-russia-conservative-politics/
Of course Orbán’s efforts to strengthen ties within the Putin-fan club won’t go unnoticed.
The US media is very obsessed with looking back at our various military disasters and this Washington Post article is no exception
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/24/kabul-airport-bombing-afghanistan-evacuation/ .
My daughter an higher ranking US Army reserve civil affairs officer was part of US contingent at the airport. I forwarded this article to her and she actually wrote something of a critique of it in response.
She wrote the article failed to merge compelling narratives, mostly from Marines, with after action reports that have been made public. (I suspect she was referencing this public report https://www.propublica.org/article/report-u-s-marines-returned-fire-after-suicide-bombing-but-no-enemies-were-shooting-at-them#🙂 The Post article mentions in passing the after action assessment but really it is presented as being in contradiction to the personal assessments of Marines.
I know my daughter told me when the bombing happened an alarm was set off and she and her team rushed to defend part of the wall separating the airport from a street. There was gunfire but those under her command did not fire and according to her received no direct incoming fire. She was one of the US Army members who were awarded a Combat Action Badge (CAB) mentioned in the article.
In their latest attempt to prove they are even more rabidly nationalistic than our lovely government, the “Mi Hazánk” party is to unveil a statue of Horthy Miklós in parliament tomorrow
https://telex.hu/belfold/2022/08/29/mi-hazank-horthy-szobor-parlament-kover-laszlo
I propose to have his best friends at his side!
Mussolini and Hitler
There are so many nice pictures of them
https://24.hu/kultura/2018/01/06/kozel-kilencven-eve-all-mar-a-fovaros-kozepen-mussolini-ajandeka/
https://www.alamy.com/stock-photo-miklos-von-horthy-and-adolf-hitler-in-berlin-1938-94220348.html
update on the Horthy statue:
The statue has been placed in the offfice of the Deputy Speaker of the House of Parliament and Mi Hazánk MP (leader?) Dúró Dóra (the book burner) so it’s not actually displayed in public space. No mention was made of Horthy’s role in the Holocaust at the inauguration ceremony.
Meanwhile Ms. Dúró’s husband and fellow Mi Hazánk MP Novák Előd “explained” to RTL Klub viewers that “we can already see a wreath from the grateful Jewish community at Horthy’s crypt” (in Jász-Nagykun-Szolnok county)
The head of Jewish organization Mazsihisz Heisler András, as well as calling on House Speaker Köver László to remove the statue, reacted by pointing out that 75% of the Jewish community are unable to be grateful as they perished during the Second World War: “The largest Hungarian cemetery is in Auschwitz, where 430 thousand Hungarian Jews died. Talk of a grateful Jewish community is untrue, and obscene cynicism”…
https://telex.hu/belfold/2022/08/30/mazsihisz-reakcio-novak-elod-horthy
Novaya Kakhovka in Ukraine’s Kherson Region is evacuating civilians due to constant artillery attacks by Ukrainian forces, the local Russian occupation administration reported on Monday. The city, which is located on the left bank of the Dnepr River and hosts a hydroelectric power plant. Ukrainian forces are stationed on the opposite side of the river.
Natalia Humeniuk, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Operational Command South, said today effectively that the long anticipated Ukrainian offensive has begun. Both the Russians and Ukrainians acknowledge the Russian forces are dug in and have heavily fortified positions.
However, US assessments indicate that Russia has been able to deploy fewer units to the frontlines than initially thought, according to a senior US official who was unnamed by CNN.
Here is what I was taught as a Cadet officer. What is called the force concentration of an attacking army against an entrenched enemy force should to 3 to 1 in favor of the attacking army. However, military theorist Clausewitz argued that a 2 to 1 ratio would be sufficient for victory. During World War I Frederick W. Lanchester a British engineer, who Wolfi is likely familiar with, developed Lanchester’s square law that I was tested on in college.
That law held with artillery engaging each other directly with aimed shooting from a distance, they can attack multiple targets and can receive fire from multiple directions. The rate of attrition now depends only on the number of weapons shooting. Lanchester determined that the power of such a force is proportional not to the number of units it has, but to the square of the number of units. The law specifies the casualties an attacking force will inflict over a period of time, relative to those inflicted by the opposing force. In its basic form, the law is only useful to predict outcomes and casualties by attrition. The square law has been modified by US Department of Defense into what is now called the salvo combat model. Using this mathematical model there are probabilistic computerized analysis that can be done.
The US and Western media often quote military officers citing advantages either the Ukrainians or Russians have in a combat situation due to various weapons systems and ammunition supplies. For a force attacking fortified lines like the Russians have, a 3 to 1 ratio in troops and likely in weapons including long range artillery, missiles etc, would using modern probability theory would clearly yield victory for the Ukrainians. I have seen no claims of that from any military analyst and the Ukrainian offensive is far from assured of being victorious. I have little doubt many young men and women will be killed assuming a full counter offensive has started.
David Ignatius who is an associate editor at the Washington Post discussed the Ukrainian counter offensive in an online discussion. Here is what he said: “Question. So, there’s been very little reporting on this counteroffensive Ukraine has apparently started today, and which (they say) has been highly successful so far. From what we know now, is this a legitimate reason for optimism or is it too early to be sure that this is the big counterattack they’ve been hinting at? Ignatius response:
Too early (for me) to make any confident predictions at just what’s ahead in Kherson and the southern offensive generally. The Ukrainians have been good at feints and deceptions in this war–it’s part of the reason that their air defense has survived so long and performed so ably. Clearly the Ukrainians want to relieve some pressure on their southern coast, and a strike at Kherson that pushes the Russians back significantly would be the best way to do it. But I’ll bet the commanders in Kyiv have other arrows in their quiver. They feel they need to show progress this fall–to bolster morale at home and with their allies–and demonstrate that they can (eventually) recapture lost territory.”
Well David Ignatius really did not answer a legitimate question, one that many people in NATO nations are wondering.
This Telex article https://telex.hu/kulfold/2022/08/24/orosz-ukran-haboru-fel-ev-ukrajna-oroszorszag-osszefoglalo includes an interview with András Rácz Senior Research Fellow from the German Foreign Policy Association (DGAP) who made some very intelligent observations about the developing Ukrainian counter offensive. Rácz did a far better job of answering the question that was posed to the Washington Post editor about the counter offensive than did the Post.
Rácz stated that it is expected that the Ukrainian counterattack would not bring rapid changes either, as the Russians were able to redeploy additional forces to Herzzon county faster than expected: “It is not possible to reconstruct exactly how much this surprised the Ukrainians, but at the moment there is no chance that this will be a blitzkrieg, or an overwhelming be a counterattack. Rácz said “there are more than 20 Russian battalion combat groups in Kherson County, while a month and a half ago there were only 7 – they have more than doubled the number of their forces present there.” It is not known how many of the 20 battalion groups were transferred to the west bank of the Dnieper, because according to Rácz, their movement changes dynamically.
The US media really does not provide a balanced assessment of what is going on with this offensive and some time is just blinded by being so pro-Ukrainian. Rácz is not pro-Russian in the least, but he is pretty realistic about the situation. For example in this report https://444.hu/2022/08/10/egyre-nagyobb-bajban-van-az-orosz-hadiipar-a-szankciok-lenullazzak-a-fejleszteseket-es-a-modernizacios-terveket Rácz gave a very critical assessment of the state of the Russian defense industry. A really big problem over here is many of the commentators on this war do not use Russian sources, Rácz does and extensively so. He also is upfront about the how confusing information coming out the war is stating: “The fog of war means that you have to be able to let go of the fact that you want to know: what is happening at the various war sites. It’s not even worth trying. What helps me is that I have accepted that I am 24-36 hours behind the current time there.”
Did the readers of this blog know that Star Wars, Aretha Franklin and The Lion King can indirectly destroy the “national identity” of Hungarians and weaken their sense of community? That is actually what the Public Service Code of Hungary basically says according to this article https://www.szabadeuropa.hu/a/kozmedia-dobos-menyhert-kozszolgalati-kodex/32000828.html. It discusses the many problems with the Code and Hungarian national public media service. It is worth reading.
CNN news in the USA is reporting that the Ukrainian counter offensive has taken four villages back from Russian occupation in the south near the city of Kherson. It is also reporting that the Russian first line of defense has been broken through in three places and many Russians killed and captured, and a lot of Russian military vehicles were destroyed. The Russian new service RT is reporting exactly the opposite, claiming to have destroyed 26 Ukrainian tanks, 23 armored personnel carriers, and two SU-25 ground attack fighter planes shot down, The Russian also claim the Ukrainians have so far lost more than 560 soldiers in the counter offensive. I suspect it is true a lot of young Russians and Ukrainians are dying today. This is exactly what András Rácz called the fog of war.
Probably, the focus on territorial counter attack progress is most important for Ukrainian propaganda purposes. Meanwhile, it looks like Ukraine could seriously hurt Russian defenses in Kherson after repeated declarations, announcing a counter offensive in Kherson was met by Russia moving a large number of troops into the region. While at the same time, Ukraine successfully made Russia draw their supply lines out of Crimea and back into Russia, out of harms way, but now they must rely on trucks and a few open highways, not unlike their initial move to take Kyiev.
I think there could be a good chance that Ukraine might weaken Russian defenses to the point of retreat from Kherson.
So today August 30th there is a scary silence in US media outlets that had yesterday been repeating Ukrainian statements about breakthroughs in Russian defensive lines in the south near the city of Kherson. This was particularly noticeable in the reporting by CNN this morning in the USA, which was yesterday morning near exuberant in reporting breakthroughs by Ukrainian forces. Really all CNN is doing today is repeating what it stated yesterday with little updating. The Washington Post just keeps repeating that reports of Ukrainian advances are “unconfirmed.” The New York Times seems to be questioning if what is going on in the south was actually the large counteroffensive President Zelensky had predicted was coming.
Interestingly Magyar Nemzet ran an article based on a press conference by Russian Defense Ministry Spokesman Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov that was also reported in detail by Tass. He increased the death total for Ukrainian forces from what the Russians claimed was over 560 soldiers yesterday to over 1,200 today. General Konashenkov reported that the Ukrainian 128th Separate Mountain Zakarpattia Brigade, (most likely the 315th Mechanized Regiment located in Beregszász, Ukraine) has been brought in to the fight to suppposedly replace losses the Ukrainians have taken in the offensive. It should be noted by readers of this blog the 128th Mountain Brigade was one of the lead units in crushing the 1956 Hungarian revolution and they have had a base near the Hungarian border ever since then. One thing that did jump out at me was a claim by General Konashenkov that Russian “Operational-tactical and army aviation aircraft” were in direct combat in the south of Ukraine helping to stop the advance of the Ukrainians. Up to now the Russians have been reluctant to use fighter bombers for close ground support due to Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses.
Of course none of the press conference by Russian Defense Ministry Spokesman Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov is being reported in the USA as yet nor verified in the least. I found it interesting that the Tass was providing far more details about Ukrainian combat units involved in the offensive than did the Ukrainians themselves. Telex had really no news beyond what it reported yesterday. I saw nothing new from András Rácz coming from Germany either today, I suspect he waiting for the fog of war to clear.
I would say that Russian reports of significant Ukrainian losses in the counteroffensive could be correct and the Ukrainians still could have made some territorial gains. The Ukrainians are attacking entrenched Russian forces so based on normal military logic they will take significant losses. A well entrenched defender generally has control of the battlefield and ensures that approaching forces have no concealment or cover to use to advance. This is some times called the “killing ground” or the “field of fire.” There is also a concept called the “beaten zone” from infantry fire, specifically larger caliber machine guns. It describes the area between the “first catch” and the “last graze” of a bullet’s trajectory. At the first of these points, a bullet will hit a standing man in the head, at the last of these points, as the bullet drops, it will hit a standing man in the feet. Anyone standing within a given gun’s beaten zone will be hit somewhere from head to foot. Then you have artillery with fragmentation shells hitting those zones, along with mortar teams targeting the zone. During the Battle of An Loc in 1972 the South Vietnamese artillery I was an adviser for killed hundreds of NVA combats troops in such zones along with Russian made tanks. None the less some of the communist forces broke though our lines and were destroyed by South Vietnamese marine combat teams. It’s really a ugly picture that is sanitized in the news media.
The Battle for An Loc in 1972 by the way lasted for a total of 66 days, I arrived somewhere around day 55 by helicopter. The NVA were incredibly tenacious in their assaults and were led by the very experienced Lt General Trần Văn Trà who had combat experience going back to the French war in Vietnam. To be honest neither the Russians nor the Ukrainians have a General with the depth of combat experience of Trần Văn Trà.
The town was completely encircled by NVA and additional South Vietnamese and massive support from the US air force and US Navy fighter bombers came to relive us during the days and days of battle. None the less the NVA gave up the fight after the loss of up to 10,000 combat troops ( see Tucker, Spencer C. (2011). The Encyclopedia of the Vietnam War: A Political, Social, and Military History. ABC-CLIO. p. 51.) Trần Văn Trà was an exceptional opponent and he wrote a book after the war that led to his own house arrest where he mildly criticized the political leadership of North Vietnam for wasting lives of NVA soldiers with pointless attacks. The book was banned eventually and very few copies survived.
I was taught a real lesson by General Trần Văn Trà who attacked constantly in many different ways as an adviser to the South Vietnamese Army. The NVA fought like heroes and still lost that battle. Almost none of their soldiers surrendered to South Vietnamese forces unless too wounded to keep fighting.
One thing that makes it troubelsome for Russia, is a well developed and organized concept of all-out resistance in the occupied territories. Ukraine has worked intensively on this since 2014.
The Russians are probably building up frustrations about not knowing who they can trust, as did the Germans during ww2.
This survey https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/30/ukraine-survey-ceasefire-war/ is very interesting. Ukrainians who have suffered more directly in this war seem more supportive of a ceasefire, but most Ukrainians still want to fight on to expel the Russian invaders.
I am worried about the impact the current counteroffensive will have in terms of casualties on the people. Seeing death and dismemberment of people you grew up with or were part of your family wears on citizens after a war goes on for more than a year as it did in with the Vietnam War for the US.
After Congress voted to cut all funding for the war when I was serving in NATO in west Germany effectively abandoning South Vietnam I could not understand it. It took me years to understand the civilian perspective on endless war.
Surveys sometimes provide surprising answers, somewhat dependent on who answers.
Still, there are no indications of significant support for a Ukrainian compromise in this conflict and the Western support for Ukraine is unwavering. Nothing indicates otherwise and Europe will shrug off the gas-war crisis because they have the resourses to do so, even if it means wearing a sweater and long-johns.
Europe and NATO (minus Hungary and Bulgaria) are not inclined to accept Russian block dominance, because the Russian ideology sees Europe an extension of the US and not as a union of independent countries who elect their leaders. That’s where Russia is lost and bound to lose the ideological battle behind the makeup of Europe.
Let’s just keep war-experience out of that scenario for now and be realistic.
If the war of attrition spreads beyond Ukraine, it will mean mostly coffins return to Russia.
In a way the war is good for Europe and the rest of the world because many more people are now thinking about saving energy – and thereby saving the planet from the climate catastrophe.
And re Hungary and Bulgaria:
is it a coincidence that these two ***expletive deleted*** have the lowest wages for teachers in the EU?
Around 500€ per month in Hungary?
How are you supposed to live on this and not be frustrated as hell?
And one more Fidesz idiocy re schools:
My wife told me that people are talking about a return to 6 day weeks in school – the extra stuff that children will learn on Saturdays during the summer will allow the state to close down the schools in winter for a longer period.
That will be a big saving of energy for the state!
Can this be real?
So today there is no independent news coming from the areas where Ukraine has launched its counter offensive. That is because Ukraine has temporarily banned journalists from traveling to the front lines, citing unstable conditions there. Illiya Yevlash, press officer for the Ukrainian ground forces, told the Washington Post and other news agencies that journalists should not travel to Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk and parts of the Zaporizhzhia region “until the situation on the front is stabilized.”
So right now all news coming out about this counter offensive is controlled by the governments of Ukraine and Russia. There are off the record statements being made by unnamed Ukrainians that read like this that appears in the Washington Post this morning: “one Ukrainian official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the issue’s sensitivity, said “counterattack” was too strong a term to describe what he called “a normal operation.” The official US department of Defense commentary also refuses to characterize the combat in around Kherson as a counter offensive.
One thing seems obvious that in several days of offensive actions the Ukrainian Army has not entered Kherson. Most statements about Ukrainian advances are ambiguous. Here is an example coming from the British: Ukraine may have succeeded in pushing Russia’s front line back some distance in places in the south by exploiting relatively thinly held Russian defenses.
The Russians now in their media statements call the counter offensive a “botched operation.” However, Russian estimates of Ukrainian casualties and material losses have remained the same for over 40 hours. The Russians say not one word as to the possibility of ground gains, if any, made by Ukrainian forces.
The Hungarian independent Telex today ran a very short article titled “According to the Ukrainians, the Russians suffered serious losses at Kherson.” Then the article goes on to say “it is still difficult to determine exactly what is going on in the area of Kherson.” Magyar Nemzet’s coverage today of the Ukrainian counter offensive and Russian defense was reduced to one sentence.
The Kyiv Independent had this article today https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraine-war-latest-southern-counteroffensive-underway-as-russia-ramps-up-shelling-in-east which again states based on some Western reports the Ukrainians took possibly five smaller villages but it is unclear if those advances have held. The article admits the “Ukrainian military has refrained from commenting further on the latest southern campaign.” So it appears the ban on journalists from the war front seems to fully apply to Ukrainian news services too.
It is well known that in defense an army may use a picket line, which is small unit of soldiers, placed on a defensive line forward of a friendly position to provide timely warning and screening against an enemy advance. They are also called skirmish lines.
When I left Vietnam towards the end of 1972 and was assigned to NATO in west Germany I learned the Soviet Army routinely deployed more lightly-armed motorized rifle regiments as skirmishers. I have to assume this is still the practice of the modern Russian Army whose commanders were trained during the Cold War.
So the gains made by the Ukrainians may have been part of a planned withdrawal of skirmishers. Overall I would say the day to day reporting on this war has often not explained standard tactics very well to the public.
By the way Magyar Nemzet ran this article today https://magyarnemzet.hu/sport/2022/08/dijaztak-a-martonvarosi-huszarok-vagtajat-a-giro-ditalian-video. It was largely about a group sponsored by Szent László Valley Equestrian Tradition Preservation Association called the Martonvásár hussars. They were actually part of the Hungarian part of a major bike race and the charge of the five Hungarian hussars was live on TV https://twitter.com/giroditalia/status/1522548213739311105
In many ways these five hussars are more impressive than much of the current Hungarian Army.
The modern and the past ride side by side … a few meters. 🙂
Right now Russian Defense Ministry Spokesman Lieutenant General Igor Konashenkov is controlling all news from the Russians about the Ukrainian counter offensive. Below is a screen shot of him putting on his show for the international media.
This guy does a fair job of explaining possible effects the state of the war can have on analysis and conclusions, based on predominant (cold war) premises.
Bad assumptions and the belief in Russian victory – YouTube
Back to Hungary:
The Forint has been getting stronger over the last days – from 412 to 400 per €!
Anyone got an explanation for this?
And another question:
There is a site in English called “postsen” with news from Hungary and around the world – translated with a really bad software or by strange people:
https://hungary.postsen.com/world/51906/According-to-an-Austrian-newspaper-the-suspected-killer-of-Darja-Dugina-was-killed.html
The quoted source for the murder is another conspiration site called exxpress (yes – two Xes).
This article eg like all others contains many grammatical errors and also is factual nonsense!
Does anyone know who is responsible for this site? I can see no info on the publisher etc.
PS:
If I had to translate from Hungarian to English or German I would be very careful with some words especially – like he/she, hers/his and so on but these “sources” make these mistakes regularly so you can almost call it an indicator for the stupidity of a site. It’s probably a problem of the translation software and the fact that nobody checks this stuff – often funny to read.
It seems that postsen.com is hosted by a commmercial domain-server in Denver Colorado, starting March 11th, this year. They are registered with a telephone number. Not may Hungarian viewers.
Postsen.com ▷ Attention Required! | Cloudflare – HypeStat
Michael, thanks – but who is behind this silly site?
Any ideas?
From the stories they produce (and partially invent …) I think they are trying to sell Orbanistan, how great it is compared to the West ….
Difficult to see who is behind, but without a doubt, it must be a far-right operation. Clues can be found in refrenced sources.
Funny!
Just found out by accident that this site “reports” on other countries too – Brazil eg.
But I can’t find a list of countries which seem worthwhile to them.
https://brazil.postsen.com/
After a closer look,
I don’t think postsen .com is a political or independent news media operation, but rather a commercial AI advertisement platform, tailoring a mix of ads and news stories to different countries’ market trends, based on cookie-information statistics.
Probably under Google ownership.
OK, you may be right. But why does it have such idiotic translation errors on its Hungarian site?
And don’t you think google would have done a real homepage?
Strange.
It could be a testing-gound for cross platform software integration prior to commercial launch on the browser/app market.
Forint is getting stronger: „MNB Raises 1-Week Deposit Rate by 100 bp to 11.75%“
Apparently, this is the only way to curb inflation. A very normal step that Matolcsy or another Fidesz looser opposed earlier, calling his doing as unorthodox. I think we are on a mountain sitting on a sled and taking the road to the valley. This time I would not be surprised if we are overtaken by Hungary.
The US Federal Reserve has been increasing the Fed rate to contain inflation more aggressively. It has impacted real estate property values here due to loan costs.
Even our primary home in Chicago is losing value base on computerized evaluations on line put out by Zillow here in the USA.
Interestingly our rental properties are gaining in value because younger people looking for single family homes can’t afford the rising interest rates and are renting. Commercial property values are very weak and have not recovered from the contraction in retail due to the pandemic.
Even more strange has been the skyrocketing value of our forest land in Wisconsin due to the massive destruction of forests in the US due to climate change driven fires.
We have harvested our own forest land very
ecologically. But many people with forest land are cutting more aggressively out of fear of the wildfires to come. In the cattle industry ranchers are sending more cattle to slaughter prior to reaching full weight because the cost of feed has risen so much.
None of this creates a great picture for the future in the global economy.
Very interesting Istvan, if you can assume the same situation in Hungary. Here in the countryside, owning a home has been a tradition in the past. Today the building materials have become very expensive. Even if the family and friend help to build, the costs make the ownership impossible. At the same time, rents have doubled in a very short time. The best times were before 2010 … here in Europe.
Thank you all for providing more info and details on what’s going on here.
Sometimes I feel like living in a dystopian novel. 1984 and The Handmaid’s Tale come to mind …
Most exchange rates are flexible since the 1970‘s and markets react on the smallest impacts. Always when the regime does a stupid thing against the markets the Forint drops immediately, when the EU commission tells again that Hungary does not fulfil the rules for getting money the Forint rate gets worse. If Orbán lies again about having done everything for getting money the rate gets better for a short time – just until truth becomes known.
Right now the central bank has changed the interest rates, it‘s now 11.75 % – BTW the highest level since 2004. 100 basic points more since yesterday, while the ECB has 0.50 %, the FED 2.50 % and both Japan and Swiss central bank rates are still negative. Currency markets love high interest rates, so the Forint gained back some value. Both shocking news and good news result in a kind of over-reaction that leads to a little bouncing up and down for a short time. The overall tendency is downwards by 2 reasons: The outlook of the Hungarian economy is far from being good and the regime profits from a low Forint value and has no intention to act seriously. What is terrible for the citizens makes production in Hungary internationally profitable and since the regime has sold endlessly Forint bonds the state debt is shrinking by devaluation as well. With the 4.95 % interest these were sold with for almost 10 years they are even more profitable for the regime – and a disaster for the citizens who bought them and some you can’t even sell.
While it is true that interest rates are a typical mean against inflation in times of an overheated economy the rates should be lowered in times of recession. In fact we are closer to the latter than to the earlier. Today‘s inflation is not typical. Hungary suffers under the same effects as the rest of Europe concerning energy prices and shortages. Since Hungary imports by far most of its energy there is no possibility to cut this part of inflation by higher interest rates. Orbán reacted with fix prices for petrol in November, chicken carcasses in January and still got a significant increase of VAT revenue. Instead of lowering VAT at least on several products, as most EU countries did, Orbán introduced new taxes on consumption. Not to forget that Orbán has bought votes with a lot of free money before the elections, which contributed heavily to the so much higher inflation compared to both the neighbouring countries and the Euro zone. In the end Orbán drives inflation much more than the central bank ever could slow it down with high interest rates.
Today the Kyiv Independent published this concise assessment of the Ukrainian counteroffensive using only international reporting because it’s war reporters are barred from going near the front lines by Zelensky’s government: “The scale of Ukraine’s push in the south is still unclear but Moscow appears to be reinforcing its troops in preparation for what is expected to be a long battle around the city of Kherson.”
This in my opinion is an admission that the Ukrainian offensive has stalled. I can see from satellite photos coming from commercial sites no indication the Ukrainians have been able to turn the Russian flank and cut off support to Kherson which would require a combat river crossing by elements of the Ukrainian Army.
Italian MEP: Weber “sells” EU conservatives to the extreme right so says Laura Ferrara. I am old enough to remember this. Laura Ferrara, MEP of the Five Star Movement an EU-skeptic and populist party. 😀
Hungarian consumer electricity prices vs market prices.
For SEVEN years, the Hungarian government ordered the electric companies to print (on prescribed ORANGE highlighting!) a lie to every consumer in each monthly statement.
The lie was that the consumers paid less (thanks to the largesse of the Orban government) than the market price.
In fact the consumers paid more than market price through July 2021 !
The price on the bills was a constant 37.6 forint/kWh (including fees and the 27% tax to the government) until August 2022.
Euro cents/kWh Hungarian consumers paid vs market price:
month
2021.01: 10.472 > 5.639
2021.04: 10.421 > 6.297
2021.07: 10.523 > 9.515
2021.10: 10.417 < 19.729
2022.01: 10.481 < 20.492
2022.04: 10.022 < 18.945
2022.07: 9.302 < 37.123
The Orban government has raised the prices from August 2022.
The new price will be double the old price (above 7 kWh/day)
Sources:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1267500/eu-monthly-wholesale-electricity-price-country/
http://www.mnbkozeparfolyam.hu/arfolyam-2022.html
The market price of electricity in Hungary will be 49.395 euro cent/kWh on on 2022.09.02.
The cheapest countries tomorrow are:
Spain & Portugal: 15.214 (surprise!)
Sweden: 20.123
Poland: 24.282 cents/kWh
The most expensive countries tomorrow are
France: 51.669
Serbia: 51.768
Greece: 54.337 cents/kWh
https://euenergy.live/
Orban lied, he has been doing that since his school days.
And Hungarians have been buying his lies ever since he came to power…
Yes that is the biggest problem the simple people (Dr. Prof etc.) believe everything. No questioning that everything is much better since 2010 and the teachers are not better. But pity for that I have none …