September 1st, 2022

  • September 1, 2022
  • István
  • 143 Comments
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Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
September 1, 2022 21:36

Matthew Luxmoore, in an article behind a paywall today from the US based Wall Street Journal somehow got interviews with newly wounded Ukrainian soldiers who have been part of the counter offensive who say their forces are advancing, but the Russians are contesting every bit of ground gained. Russian soldiers seemed well-equipped and were putting up stiff resistance, the wounded Ukrainians were quoted as stating.

At least from this bedside interview it appears the Ukrainians are taking heavy casualties.

Don Kichote
Don Kichote
September 1, 2022 22:03

“The guys are in a fighting mood,” said Ivan, a former construction worker from southwest Ukraine. “They’re moving forward.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukrainian-soldiers-say-they-are-advancing-in-the-south-but-at-a-cost-11661983338

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
September 1, 2022 23:54

Looks like Putin had this oligarch tossed out a window for opposing the invasion of Ukraine
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/01/russia-lukoil-fall-hospital-window
Stalin would be proud of Putin’s ruthlessness.

Don Kichote
Don Kichote
September 2, 2022 00:34

I read that he allegedly wanted to smoke a cigarette in a clinic and fell out of the window. They didn’t say why …

Theestampe
Theestampe
September 2, 2022 08:53
Reply to  Don Kichote

After becoming suspiciously ill and being hospitalised…

Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
September 3, 2022 04:06
tappanch
tappanch
September 3, 2022 13:41

The probably far from complete list of killed Russian oil and other billionaires in 2022:

January:
#1 Leonid Shulman, Gazprom top manager

February:
#2 Alexander Tyulyakov, Gazprom’s Deputy General Director#3 Mikhail Watford, Russian tycoon in UKMarch: #4 billionaire Vasily Melnikov
April:
#5 former vice-president of Gazprombank Vladislav Avayev

#6 Sergey Protosenya, former top manager of Russia’s energy giant Novatek in Spain

May:
#7 Alexander Subbotin, former top manager of Lukoil

August:
#8 Ravil Maganov, chair of Russian oil giant LUKOIL

tappanch
tappanch
September 3, 2022 13:53
Reply to  tappanch

An enlarged and corrected list:

#1
In late January, Leonid Shulman, a top executive at Russian natural gas giant Gazprom, was found dead in the bathroom of a cottage in the village of Leninsky. The Russian media group RBC reported his death, but did not cite a cause.

#2

#3

  • On Feb. 28, three days after Tyulakov died, a Russian oil and gas billionaire living in England, Mikhail Watford, was found hanged in the garage of his country estate. At the time, investigators reportedly said Watford’s death was “unexplained,” but did not appear suspicious.

#4
billionaire Vasily Melnikov
#5

  • On April 18, a former vice president of Gazprombank, Vladislav Avayev, was found dead in his Moscow apartment, alongside his wife and daughter, who also died. Authorities treated the case as a murder-suicide, Radio Free Europe reported at the time. Gazprombank is Russia’s third-largest bank and has close ties to the energy sector.

#6

  • On April 19, a former deputy chairman of Novatek, Russia’s largest liquefied natural gas producer, was found dead in a vacation home in Spain. Like Avayev in Moscow, Sergei Protosenya was found with his wife and daughter, who were also deceased. And like Avayev, police investigating the scene said they believed it was a murder-suicide, a theory that Avayev’s surviving son has publicly rejected.
tappanch
tappanch
September 3, 2022 13:53
Reply to  tappanch

#7

  • In May, the body of billionaire and former Lukoil executive Alexander Subbotin was discovered in the basement of a country house in the Moscow region. The room where Subbotin died was allegedly used for “Jamaican voodoo rituals,” Russian state media outlet TASS reported, quoting local authorities.

#8

#9
Ravil Maganov, chairman of Russian oil giant Lukoil

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/01/lukoil-chairman-ravil-maganov-is-the-8th-russian-energy-executive-to-die-suddenly-this-year.html

Don Kichote
Don Kichote
September 3, 2022 18:29
Reply to  tappanch

There is a very long list … maybe it is not even complete.

http://xsovietunion.blogspot.com/2018/03/list-of-suspicious-russia-related.html

tappanch
tappanch
September 3, 2022 14:12

Q1:
Have Russian agents copied or taken away the “Top Secret” US documents Trump hoarded in his Florida dacha “Mar-a-Lago” ?

Putin surely kills the Russians he finds in those documents.

Q2:
Is Trump himself Putin’s agent?

Don Kichote
Don Kichote
September 3, 2022 19:56
Reply to  tappanch

You only have to tell Trump that he is sent by God and you can play with him. Orban is a nastier type.

tappanch
tappanch
September 3, 2022 11:05

#1
Orban is in Moscow in the morning of September 3, allegedly to attend Gorbachov’s funeral.

Infamous members of his delegation: T. Deutsch, M. Schmidt, I. Konya.

https://magyarnemzet.hu/belfold/2022/09/orban-viktor-moszkvaba-utazott

#2
The military plane that flew Orban’s minister of economy to Moscow on August 21 & 22, picked up someone (the Serbian president?) in Belgrade on September 2.

https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=477ff7&showTrace=2022-09-02

tappanch
tappanch
September 3, 2022 14:03

The chairman of the Kuria (Supreme Court) A. Zs. Varga started his tenure on January 2, 2021. He had never been a courtroom judge before that.

It turns out that he appointed several judges to the Kuria unlawfully during 2021.

https://helsinkifigyelo.444.hu/2022/09/03/torvenybe-utkozo-biroi-kinevezesek-a-kurian

tappanch
tappanch
September 4, 2022 11:00

“MOSCOW, Aug 30 (Reuters) – Russian gas giant Gazprom made a record 2.5 trillion roubles ($41.75 billion) in net profit in the first half of 2022

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-gazprom-consider-paying-interim-dividends-2022-08-30/

Pantanifan
Pantanifan
September 4, 2022 11:05

The Visegrád 4 group continues to fall apart over Hungary’s attitude towards Russia:
https://telex.hu/kulfold/2022/09/03/csehorszag-kulugyminiszter-v4-orban-viktor-oroszorszag-haboru-bab

Nevertheless, the “esteem of Hungarian foreign policy is at an all-time high”, the Foreign Minister announced (so it must be true!!!):
https://telex.hu/english/2022/08/29/szijjarto-the-esteem-of-hungarian-foreign-policy-is-at-an-all-time-high

wolfi7777
wolfi7777
September 4, 2022 12:45
Reply to  Pantanifan

Correction:
your last sentence corresponds in the original to Szijarto`s last sentence:
… outside this European and North American communication bubble …
So does that mean Serbia and Beloruss, Russia and China which is still hoping to make a lot of business and money with its silk road?
Or is he thinking of the usual suspects – Geert Wilders, Le Pen, the Italian fascists etc?
It will be interesting to see who will win the next elections in the EU countries – the normal people or the fascists?

Pantanifan
Pantanifan
September 4, 2022 13:04
Reply to  wolfi7777

Well I guess he’s probably thinking of both our “friends” in Turkey, China, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan etc. and also the extreme nationalists in Europe.

Using the phrase “outside this European and North American communication bubble” does make you wonder why hungary is still in NATO and the EU if it’s opposed to both of them…

wolfi7777
wolfi7777
September 4, 2022 15:49
Reply to  Pantanifan

We’re only in it for the money!

Totally OT:
While walking to our little Pala Tó we saw several ads, nice pictures of something like Huszars.
http://tarnokhir.hu/2016/09/05/7114/
The big difference – They accept women too!
We are still looking for Határ Vadász people to watch the borders and hold back those millions of immigrants who want to enter the best country in the world aka Hungary …
And that reminded us that these people will make more money than a teacher …

Last edited 5 months ago by wolfi7777
Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
September 5, 2022 01:54
Reply to  wolfi7777

The Hungarian propaganda bubble will probably survive the expected reunion with the post-Soviet regime, and people will see it as right and just. Money won’t be an issue.

Don Kichote
Don Kichote
September 5, 2022 13:40

Chinese Covid vaccine performs worst … like Hungary.
Who would have thought.

Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
September 5, 2022 22:43
Reply to  Don Kichote

While The Great Viktor treads European waters and keeps his head above the surface, the country sinks.

Treading Water.jpg
tappanch
tappanch
September 5, 2022 22:43

Trump (a potential Putin agent) is treated more than an equal, he is treated like a king.

The US is going down.

A Trump-appointed judge grants Trump’s request for a “special master” to handle the documents the FBI seized in “Mar-a-Lago”

https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.618763/gov.uscourts.flsd.618763.64.0_2.pdf

Don Kichote
Don Kichote
September 5, 2022 23:04
Reply to  tappanch

“„BREAKING: Judge Cannon has ruled—wrongly— that a special master should be appointed to review the documents obtained from Mar-a-Lago for executive and other privileges. Because this includes an injunction vs investigative use, DOJ can and should appeal.“
https://twitter.com/NormEisen/status/1566815092506755072

„More to follow.“ he says …

What I know Judge cannon was appointed by Donald Trump.

Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
September 5, 2022 23:53
Reply to  Don Kichote

The soap-drama is secured. “It’s a free concert from now on”.

Last edited 5 months ago by Michael Detreköy
Don Kichote
Don Kichote
September 6, 2022 00:22

😀 und sie haben es nicht gemerkt 😀 …

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
September 6, 2022 15:13
Reply to  tappanch

I actually served as a special master for a US District Judge for the Northern District of Illinois for 4 years. I oversaw a settlement agreement involving real estate in the multi-millions of dollars and issued reports to the judge. The judge ultimately decided whether anything I did was acceptable relating to disagreements between the parties to the settlement agreement that had defined metrics to be achieved by the defendant.

In this situation only a handful of the documents seized in Florida by the FBI will be in question for being covered under the attorney client privilege (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attorney%E2%80%93client_ https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attorney%E2%80%93client_privilege).

Most legal commentators in the US were doubtful that Trump would ever be charged with a serious crime for having these classified documents. Moreover, even if Trump were convicted and imprisoned under the US Constitution he could legally run and serve as President again. (See https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/05/can-trump-run-for-president-from-prison.html). I personally believe Trump will be the Republican candy for President in 2024 unless he is dead for has a major health problem.

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
September 6, 2022 15:30

I am at our cabin in our northern Wisconsin forest land with limited internet access. Using what is called a signal booster. I could not get the edit function to work sorry for the typos. Below is photo of our cabin.

42CAE162-8514-4077-B4FD-6B4CFFB782CC.jpeg
Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
September 6, 2022 16:43

This article discusses the Judge’s ruling in appointing the special master in the Trump documents case in an intelligent way I thought https://www.wsj.com/articles/judge-partly-grants-donald-trumps-request-for-independent-review-of-mar-a-lago-documents-11662395427. The Judge’s ruling included according to that article: “Judge Cannon cautioned that the special master review ultimately might prove of little benefit to Mr. Trump. He “ultimately may not be entitled to return of much of the seized property or to prevail on his anticipated claims of privilege,” she wrote. “For now, the circumstances surrounding the seizure in this case and the associated need for adequate procedural safeguards are sufficiently compelling to at least get Plaintiff past the courthouse doors.”

Don Kichote
Don Kichote
September 6, 2022 12:33

Robert Habeck told “The only reliable thing from Russia are lies” … but also Hungary, right?

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
September 6, 2022 17:06

A really interesting article on how the Russian media is organized to put out its messaging https://ridl.io/the-ministry-of-happiness/ .

wolfi7777
wolfi7777
September 6, 2022 20:24

Istvan, thanks for this!
This site “riddle” of Russia is really interesting. The list of people cooperating there and the list of topics are fantastic for anyone who’s interested in Russian Politics.
Imho the article shows clearly that Russia is returning to the ideology of the 70s – but of course with the latest IT technologies.
What it doesn’t mention is the gigantic amount of Russian trollery.
So for me the main question is:
How many people in the West and in Russia will follow these ideas about “The Great Russia” and that reminds me of the situation in Hungary:
How many people still believe in Führer Orbán?

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
September 7, 2022 14:28

This article today
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/ukraine-kherson-offensive-casualties-ammunition/
Presents interviews with wounded Ukrainian soldiers and a description of what one soldier called 5 to 1 Ukrainian losses attacking entrenched Russian troops in the counter offensive.

Clearly this is not Russian propaganda, and the fact that the Ukrainians still seem to be advancing inch by inch does indicate either tremendous resolve or tactical insanity from a military perspective depending on one’s perspective on how long this war of attrition could last.

Pantanifan
Pantanifan
September 7, 2022 15:34

Well, I don’t have any real knowledge of military strategy, but what other options does Ukraine have?
If they just accept the reality on the ground at the moment with some kind of peace treaty they will be vulnerable to another Russian attack in future

Last edited 5 months ago by Pantanifan
Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
September 7, 2022 18:30
Reply to  Pantanifan

The option apparently that the US joint chiefs wanted Zelensky to continue was a defensive posture killing as many Russians as possible from entrenched positions and yielding as little land as possible. To also continue to carry out special forces attacks behind Russian lines, and implement killings of local officials collaborating with Russian forces. Let the Russians be the ones taking the big casualties.

Zelensky was adamant that his forces needed to go on the offensive in order to demonstrate to the world and in particular his own people Ukrainian forces could that back captured areas. Biden and many other NATO leaders wanted Zelensky to wait longer while the Russians weakened.

Taking back Kherson will yield little because it is now a devastated city that once had 283,000 people many who escaped to western Ukraine, with a unknown number shipped to so called filtration camps in Russia including a large one near the North
Korean border.

Biden and his generals are being very disciplined in not voicing publicly the reservations they have over this current counter offensive and continuing to supply weapons and training. I have nothing but admiration for the USA, my country, for not being heavy handed with Zelensky and allowing the Ukrainians to fight the war they want to for better or worse.

Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
September 7, 2022 20:59

You once anticipated that Biden would be a “steady pressure” type of President – That point is well proven by now.
Perhaps the Nato leadership sees advantages in wider, long term economic stress in Russia, now having to rely on Asian/Arab partners for weapons support. Also, steadily increasing numbers of highly qualified employees of closed Western businesses in Russia, pull the plug on their Russian jobs and move away to the West. It seems their Westernized training made them less willing to obey orders to work more for free, when there are good vacant jobs in the West.

Last edited 5 months ago by Michael Detreköy
Don Kichote
Don Kichote
September 7, 2022 23:25
Reply to  Pantanifan

“… but what other options does Ukraine have?” no answer as always …

Pantanifan
Pantanifan
September 8, 2022 10:36
Reply to  Don Kichote

I think Istvan (Chicago) does provide one alternative option in the first paragraph of his reply to me.

Don Kichote
Don Kichote
September 8, 2022 19:25
Reply to  Pantanifan

I miss the “honestly” the subjective Chicago flair and what was still what the Ukrainians could do to achieve something – according to the opinion of the “crystal ball”?

“… but what other options does Ukraine have?” I could not read. Therefore, I ask you to explain the message to someone who did not understand it.

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
September 7, 2022 20:43

Telex had this very interesting article on how the Russian invasion of Ukraine is being presented in Hungarian text books https://telex.hu/belfold/2022/09/07/ukran-kulugy-magyar-foldrajz-tankonyv-krim-orosz-ukron-belharc For those who do not read Hungarian the article states The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has demanded the immediate correction of false information about Ukraine in the geography textbooks for Hungarian eighth-grade students. The textbook stated “The majority is of Ukrainian nationality, but in the eastern part of the country there is a significant proportion of Russians, and in the Crimean peninsula they make up the majority. The two East Slavic languages ​​(Russian, Ukrainian) are similar. In the parts of the country inhabited by Russians, one fifth of the population speaks a mixed Russian-Ukrainian language. Despite this, the two ethnic groups are often at odds with each other. There opposite also triggered an armed conflict for the Crimean peninsula.”

The textbook included a cartoon to help young Hungarians understand the situation that can be seen below.

1662553909-temp-cLJmCi_cikktorzs.png
wolfi7777
wolfi7777
September 7, 2022 21:09

One more example of the brutality and idiocy of Fidesz rule and how people react.
Many people from the LGBT spectrum have left Hungary to lead a better life in Berlin eg. For those who can read German:
https://www.dw.com/de/queere-ungarn-in-berlin-endlich-%C3%B6ffentlich-h%C3%A4ndchen-halten/a-63042603
The state owned Deutsche Welle has produce a lot of usually quite negative reports on O1G:
https://www.dw.com/de/viktor-orban/t-18980484

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
September 7, 2022 23:48

General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, member of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine is one of the authors of this article https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3566404-prospects-for-running-a-military-campaign-in-2023-ukraines-perspective.html. The article concludes:
“It is hard to imagine that even nuclear strikes will allow Russia to break Ukraine’s will to resist. But the threat that will emerge for the whole of Europe cannot be ignored. The possibility of direct involvement of the world’s leading powers in a “limited” nuclear conflict, bringing closer the prospect of World War 3, cannot be completely ruled out either. As a forced step, which is still extremely necessary, we must return to the source of Russian confidence, which is impunity. Any Russian attempts at practical steps in the use of tactical nuclear weapons must be pre-empted by employing the entire arsenal of means at the disposal of world powers. After all, starting from this moment, the Russian Federation will become not only a threat to the peaceful coexistence of Ukraine, its neighbors, and a number of European countries but also a truly global-scale terrorist state.
In our opinion, it is precisely taking into account such a complex and ambiguous combination of factors that the prospects of the 2023 military campaign should be considered. Only their full and comprehensive consideration will create the prerequisites for Ukraine to defeat the aggressor’s army and put to an end the destructive war that is raging in Europe.”

Now here in the USA the possibility of the war in Ukraine escalating into a nuclear conflict between NATO and Russia is simply not discussed by our military leaders or President Biden. But here in this article the leader of the Ukrainian Army is discussing such a “limited” nuclear conflict without hesitation. I believe like General Zaluzhnyi the Russians could use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine, but unlike Zaluzhnyi I do believe the Ukrainian will to resist could be broken by a Russian tactical nuclear assault. The reason for that is the population of the USA and NATO countries are totally psychologically unprepared to respond to Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine and there will likely be mass opposition to a tactical nuclear counter attack in support of Ukraine.

Abandoned to potential nuclear destruction I think indeed the will to resist could be broken. In fact recently in the UN the USA opposed a resolution declaring Russia a terrorist state because it would be an escalation.

wolfi7777
wolfi7777
September 8, 2022 08:23

Horrible idea!
Using a nuclear weapon would put Russia on the same level as Nazi Germany – forever or at least until Putin and his generals were shot or hanged, maybe upside down like Mussolini.
I still hope that some people in the Russian chain of command are still “normal” so they realize this.

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
September 8, 2022 17:00
Reply to  wolfi7777

It appears the leaders of the Ukrainian armed forces believe the Russian high command would not be a factor if Putin went ahead and ordered a tactical nuclear strike in Ukraine.
I had my doubts about the U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM) that is responsible for overseeing my nation’s nuclear arsenal blocking even an order from Trump for a preemptive tactical level nuclear strike against North Korea.

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
September 8, 2022 17:09

Officers are trained to follow orders, I raised questions about artillery fire on areas with civilians during the US invasion of Panama but after being assured the order had been vetted up the command chain I carried it out. Indeed civilians were killed but Panamanian forces also quickly surrendered.

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
September 8, 2022 20:36

So today Magyar Nemzet discovered apparently that the Ukrainian high command considered that there is a real possibility that Russian could use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Joachim Scheffer, a young reporter who graduated with his Masters degree in international affairs only in 2021 and has been working for Magyar Nemzet for less than one year wrote the article https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2022/09/korlatozott-nuklearis-konfliktustol-tartanak-az-ukranok abut which I posted yesterday on this blog. Scheffer tried to explain to his Hungarian readers what a tactical nuclear weapon was and I thought it was very confused.

This is because there is no exact definition of the “tactical” category in terms of range or yield of the nuclear weapon. The yield of tactical nuclear weapons is generally lower than that of strategic nuclear weapons, but larger ones are still very powerful, and some variable-yield warheads serve in both roles. For example, the US W89 200 kiloton warhead was intended to arm both the tactical Sea Lance anti-submarine rocket-propelled depth charge and the strategic bomber-launched SRAM II stand off missile.

Modern tactical nuclear warheads have yields up to the tens of kilotons, or potentially hundreds, several times that of the weapons used in the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Scheffer stated in his article that: “Strategic charges are nuclear bombs in the classical sense, which can destroy entire cities, whereas tactical warheads are only suitable for destroying a military target locally,” which is simply not correct.

But there were aspects of Scheffer’s article today that were very good. For example he wrote an extremely critical statement about Russia stating: “In the present case, for example, if Russia were to deploy its tactical nuclear warheads to destroy a Ukrainian target, it is less likely that the Western allies, and especially the United States, would decide to take a similar step. At the same time, if this were to happen the other way around, Moscow would almost certainly decide to retaliate at least to a similar extent, Russian leaders like to say that if they are attacked, the world should prepare for a full-scale nuclear war.” (my translation)

Honestly I was surprised the pro-Russian editors of Magyar Nemzet let that statement get to publication. I generally agree with it too by the way, but the downside of that reluctance of NATO and the USA to respond to a Russian attack using tactical nuclear weapons in response could lead to massive demoralization and a feeling of abandonment on the part of the Ukrainian armed forces because from reading General Valery Zaluzhny’s essay they would expect a response in kind to be coming from their allies. 

This is partly due to how Scheffer seems to understand the potential responses to a nuclear attack in his article, he basically reduced those responses to three options. The US think tank RAND Corporation sees potential responses and much more complex if one just reads some of what they have published see https://www.rand.org/topics/nuclear-weapons-and-warfare.html . The range of nuclear deterrence strategies are basically series of options including buy not limited to minimal or “limited” deterrence, massive retaliation with a force greater than that originally used by the aggressor, and mutual assured destruction (“MAD”). Much of the work in this area is now in fact based on computerized simulations and game theory. The math involved in this area of nuclear defense is extremely complex and can involve sets of algorithms and Monte Carlo techniques requiring massive computing power. Russia, China, NATO nations, and the USA are using these complex simulations to help make decisions very rapidly. 

In my opinion President Biden seems to believe any nuclear exchange with Russia leads to mutual assured destruction but his own military does not necessarily believe that would be the case. But Biden is the commander in chief and in this area is the controlling factor by law, how his thinking would work if Russian missiles fly with tactical warheads is still unknown. 

Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
September 9, 2022 03:26

Since relatons between UKR and HU are sub-zero, and Hun relations to the rest of the world are strictly pro-Putin oriented, anything the Nemzet writes is a “Pravda” version.

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
September 9, 2022 13:27

I think Scheffer did slip in some lines that were pretty anti-Russian.

wolfi7777
wolfi7777
September 9, 2022 08:44

I’ll do a new start – can’t stand that answer format.
Though of course I know almost nothing about war especially compared to our dear Istvan in Chicago I still remember how I calculated radiation almost 60 years ago while working in civil defense. I have written about this and how shocked we were to see what “tactical nuclear warheads” might do to kill people.
So sometimes I wonder about these military experts in Russia – don’t they care at all for their people? Of course we know that they don’t care for Ukrainians ef, the Baltic states etc. But the risk of losing hundreds of thousand lives in their own country?
And another point:
If this war should reach the nuclear level Russians will be even more hated all over the world or at least in the West and they will no longer have that way out – even the oligarchs.
If it should happen I’m all for putting all of them to trial for war crimes – and I wouldn’t mind the reintroduction of the death penalty for those.

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
September 9, 2022 14:20

This morning on national public radio US General Mark Milley (chair of the US joint chiefs) was interviewed about the counter offensive by Ukraine in the south it can be heard here https://www.npr.org/programs/morning-edition/ it’s the second recording.

He was specifically asked about a Washington Post story where wounded Ukrainian soldiers were indicating their combat casualties were currently five times those of the Russians. He did not indicate that was incorrect, he did state that those closest to combat can sometimes not have the full picture.

He went on to explain the normal logic of offensive operations causing more casualties than those on the defense. He also indicated that the Ukrainians had massed troops and materials for a sustained operation. He also emphasized correctly offensive operations are much more complex than defensive operations.

He also indicated the Ukrainians had done an effective job destroying resupply bridges to Kherson, but Russian combat engineers where consistently working to keep supplies flowing. I saw no indication in the General’s interview that Russian forces were nearing collapse anytime soon. He made some very intelligent observations on the Russian production problems relating to munitions and their purchase this week of massive quantities of artillery shells from the North Korean stores going back to the 1950s. From reports I have read we are talking about millions of 152-millimeter artillery shells and Katyusha-style rockets https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/05/us/politics/russia-north-korea-artillery.html .

Of course General Milley did not discuss the decline in US and NATO ammunition stores. See this article https://taskandpurpose.com/news/military-artillery-shells-rockets-missiles-war-russia-china/ .

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
September 9, 2022 15:10

I am confused exactly why Magyar Nemzet published this article https://magyarnemzet.hu/velemeny/2022/09/a-masodik-vilaghaboru-tanulsagai written by the Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. The article is a very short history of the combined Russian German invasion of Poland in August 1939. I suspect the editors of Magyar Nemzet somehow see it as supporting Orban’s stance of abstractly opposing the war in Ukraine. Morawiecki was today in Kyiv and is totally supporting the Ukrainian war effort against Russia and Poland is the primary pathway for weapons from NATO going into Ukraine.

I do know Mateusz Morawiecki has been publicly asking for €1.3 trillion in reparations from Germany. But he has also made this statement relating to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the lessons of WWII just on September 7 “The lesson we should learn from World War II is that crimes which go unremembered, unnamed, unjudged and unpunished can only be a harbinger of more to come. After all, war crimes are happening today before the eyes of all Europe – they are being carried out by Russian troops on the Ukrainian people. Today’s barbarians must know that they will not escape responsibility for their crimes – genocide, destruction and looting. They must be aware that justice will inevitably reach them.”

Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
September 9, 2022 17:38

The recent Polish war-damage compensation claims against Germany are at the top of current PiS priorities.
Nemzet printing Morawiecki’s entry could also perhaps be an attempt to gain some damage-control over the presently battered Hungarian-Polish official relations. In true Orbán fashion – without offering any admissions.

BIRN Fact-Check: Can PiS Re-Open the Pandora’s Box of War Reparations with Germany? | Balkan Insight

tappanch
tappanch
September 9, 2022 17:28

The Ukrainian army has not been too successful in the south, in the Kherson region so far..

But they made a breakthrough in the north yesterday.

With the capture of Senkove, they cut off the main supply route of the Russian forces at Izyum. they also reached the outskirts of Kupyansk.further north.

https://liveuamap.com/

tappanch
tappanch
September 9, 2022 22:24
Reply to  tappanch

The Russian forces in Izyum are probably surrounded.

tappanch
tappanch
September 9, 2022 22:50
Reply to  tappanch
tappanch
tappanch
September 10, 2022 19:07
Reply to  tappanch

Izyum is recaptured by the Ukrainians !

tappanch
tappanch
September 10, 2022 19:09
Reply to  tappanch

comment image

tappanch
tappanch
September 9, 2022 17:45

Orban dictatorship news.

#1
Deputy director of a high school in Miskolc supported the teachers’ movement for better pay . He was fired by the government a few days later.

https://telex.hu/belfold/2022/09/09/tankerulet-miskolc-herman-otto-gimnazium-igazgato-helyettes-felmentes-polgari-engedetlenseg

#2
Teachers are also threatened in a letter with firing in Budapest,
https://telex.hu/belfold/2022/09/09/polgari-engedetlenseg-tanarok-level-tankerulet-fenyegetes-iskolak

#3
2018: A judge referred the Hungarian border law & practice to a European court.
2020: The court agreed with the Hungarian judge against the Hungarian government.
2021: The judge was suspended for “incompetence”
2022: She appeals to the European Hunan Right Court.

https://helsinki.hu/ujabb-birosagi-botrany-nincs-hatekony-jogorvoslati-lehetoseg-kirugott-biroknak/

tappanch
tappanch
September 9, 2022 17:54
Reply to  tappanch

Not Hunan or Wuhan Rights 🙂 , but Human Rights Court

wolfi7777
wolfi7777
September 10, 2022 12:56
Reply to  tappanch

More news on teachers/schools/students:
Seems that there will be no autumn school holidays this year – to save energy the holidays will be moved to winter.
A friend of our family who works in IT just told my wife:
His sons (16 – 18 years) will have to learn another foreign language, fluency in German and English would be best for them – so they can find jobs in the West instead of going to a Hun university which has no value.
He also explained that when he started university the law was that you had to be “proficient” or at least have basic skills in two languages to be allowed to study – nowadays nobody cares.
Fun fact:
Now I understand. My wife’s son speaks perfect English, really good for his well paid IT job and a bit of German.
His wife learned English and …
Esperanto,
just the basics to be able to start her psychology studies …

wolfi7777
wolfi7777
September 9, 2022 18:10
Reply to  tappanch

Re Teachers are also threatened in a letter with firing in Budapest
My wife just got so angry reading this!
Of course Fidesz honchos don’t need, don’t want well educated people, they just need willing laborours for the Chinese factory.
Their own children they send to Switzerland or the UK or …
Son Hungary will be a hundred years back behind Europe, not fifty years!

tappanch
tappanch
September 9, 2022 18:19

European spot gas price

August 27 peak: 0.313 euro/kWh
September 9: 0.200 euro/kWh

https://www.powernext.com/spot-market-data

Futures show the same decline:

October futures: 0.207
December futures: 0.218 euro/kWh

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/TG*1

tappanch
tappanch
September 9, 2022 23:06

“PARIS, Sept 9 (Reuters) – The governments of the European Union’s five biggest economies [France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands] said on Friday they would implement a global minimum corporate tax next year by “any possible legal means”, if Hungary does not lift its opposition at the EU level.

Hungary blocked the European Union’s adoption of a 15% minimum corporate tax at the last minute in June, preventing a deal that would have turned a global reform into law across the bloc.”

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/five-big-eu-states-implement-minimum-corporate-tax-if-no-eu-deal-2022-09-09/

Theestampe
Theestampe
September 10, 2022 10:09
Reply to  tappanch

I read a similar article on Politico. If passed this would be the first time enhanced cooperation is used in the EU as far as I know.

tappanch
tappanch
September 9, 2022 23:25

Attention, house or palace owners:

If you cut your house or palace into 4 virtual apartments, you can quadruple the the amount of heating gas you can get on the cheap.

page 6089.
Magyar Közlöny 2022. évi 146. szám

105. §
https://net.jogtar.hu/jogszabaly?docid=99700253.KOR

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
September 10, 2022 01:58

So amazingly today the Russian news media conceded that it had lost around 750 square kilometers of Ukrainian land since Sept. 1. How they did it was in my opinion funny, they used US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin‘s quotes. The greatest gains according to the Kyiv Independent came rapidly in part due to Russia being forced to relocate its troops south from towns close to Kharkiv.

Things are far more difficult in the areas near Kherson and the Russians by many reports have repelled many Ukrainian assaults from fortified positions inflicting casualties on Ukrainian forces. The Russians describe one assault where the Ukrainians lost over 270 soldiers, 3 tanks, and 11 armored personnel carriers, the Ukrainians do not release casualties data on their own forces. Their estimates of Russian losses in areas near Kherson has not commented on nor on progress in Kharkiv Oblast, but new videos emerging on social media in Ukraine indicate Russian troops are also suffering heavy losses in the region. There are videos of numerous dead Russians in trenches made by Ukrainian soldiers.

War as always is hell.

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
September 10, 2022 14:10

The mass of videos appearing in social media became a topic on the Washington Post see https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/09/10/ukraine-combat-videos-us-weapons/

The video the Post features is relatively sanitized and does not show Russian dead, or Ukrainian wounded. It is rare in the sense that the voice of the heavy machine gunner is in English, most of the ones I have viewed featured Ukrainian speakers.

The videos are in some cases being filmed by helmet mounted cameras which indicates the lack of control over Ukrainian combat units in the field. The same thing apparently is happening in Russia via video sent using proxy servers.

This also happened in the US wars in the Middle East. It also happened to my daughter who was a US Army reserve officer in Afghanistan who caught a serviceman illegally taking videos of Taliban dead and had the soldier arrested by the military police.

The US Army does do extensive filming of combat, it is carried out by Combat Documentation/Production Specialists. They supervise, plan, and operate electronic and film-based still, video, and audio equipment in order to document combat and noncombat operations. In some cases ground combat video was being transmitted to US command or even the CIA/NSA. I was surprised to find out only a few years ago when in combat in Vietnam I was filmed by an Australian crew issuing artillery commands in Vietnamese during the Battle of An Loc.

There are also drones with advanced optics constantly watching and filming constantly now.

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
September 10, 2022 14:27

https://twitter.com/dmitry_palyuga/status/1567554655357472771?s=20&t=hBZSvbUQWw49GdQacpXpHw This is a Russian twitter report about group of district council members in St. Petersburg, who called for Putin to be charged with treason and removed from office in a protest against the war in Ukraine.

A day after the resolution against Putin was made public, a local police station told the lawmakers they were facing legal charges “due to actions aimed at discrediting the current Russian government.” Possibly Putin will have them thrown out a window, or disposed of in another manner. None the less, it was an act of great courage that should be acknowledged.

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
September 10, 2022 14:55

https://dailynewshungary.com/czech-minister-hungary-on-the-edge-of-the-abyss-huxit-possible/ I would add that the Russian media is absolutely thrilled about the idea of Hungary exiting the EU today. So far I have seen no official response from the Orban government, has anyone else?

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
September 10, 2022 15:25

https://www.klubradio.hu/adasok/dezso-orban-zavargasra-szamit-roganban-bizik-a-legjobban-129053 at least based on this reporting by HVG journalist András Dezső, it appears there are plans to implement some form/security apparatus or military rule in the situation of a crisis in Hungary. Could the trigger be Hungary leaving the EU? I am sure Putin would think Orban is taking wise measures to ensure his rule in the eventuality of Hungary’s exit from the EU. I am also sure Putin would be more than happy to help assure the independence of Hungary from NATO/EU dominance with military force if necessary.

As we all know Putin is a great supporter of the national integrity of nation states as is evident by his invasion of Ukraine.

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
September 10, 2022 15:58

The Kyiv Independent today reported: “ According to the State Border Guard Service, 5,600 of these cases involved men caught trying to cross the Ukrainian border outside official checkpoints. Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Ukrainian men aged 18 to 60 deemed fit for military service are banned from leaving the country except under certain exceptions.”

My bet is that damn few of those caught were Transcarpathians illegally swimming or floating across the Tisza. I have gone to the on line version of Karpati Igaz Szo and never found an article daring to discuss this issue, it may in fact actually be illegal to do so.

tappanch
tappanch
September 10, 2022 19:27

“Vladimir Putin visited the new international SAMBO Center and the Boxing Center in Luzhniki and inspected their premises in detail.”

Soccer for Orban, sambo for Putin.

Russian military spokesman:

The Russian army “regrouped” from Izyum and Balakleya to the Donetsk region.

https://t.me/s/tass_agency

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
September 10, 2022 21:57
Reply to  tappanch

There is a lot of video of rapid and disorderly retreat of Russian forces appearing. This is very embarrassing at the least for Putin and potentially something of a crisis. A sebzett medve a legveszélyesebb medve. Az életükért küzdenek.

Clearly the Russians have massive numbers of Ukrainian combat forces in front of them a perfect situation to use tactical nukes unfortunately.

Istvan. (Chicago)
Istvan. (Chicago)
September 10, 2022 20:19

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-troops-raise-flag-over-railway-hub-advance-threatens-turn-into-rout-2022-09-10/ This came out about 50 minutes ago, it appears the Russians pulled so many troops out to defend Kherson they completely undermined their ability to carry out any fighting withdrawal.

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
September 10, 2022 20:51

The Russian mass media is currently still reporting its forces are retreating from the occupied towns near Kharkiv and regrouping to defend the town of Izium. But there is video of advanced Ukrainian units already in Izium.

Daniil Bezsonov, proxy official in the Russian-occupied parts of Donetsk Oblast, wrote on his personal Telegram channel that “yes, we left Izium, along with a few other settlements in the Kharkiv area.” 

The news has since been picked up by some Russian media outlets, including Gazeta.ru and RBK. So the consistent messaging coming out of Russia has broken down.

tappanch
tappanch
September 11, 2022 00:11

Izyum:

The Russian military spokesman admitted the loss of Izyum hours ago, see the TASS news above.

Kupyansk:

The town is on both sides of the Oskil river.
The Ukrainians captured the western side. But the railroad hub (Kupyansk-Uzlovoy) is on the eastern side of the river.

tappanch
tappanch
September 11, 2022 00:32

RyanAir chief is angry with Orban’s decision to impose a 10-euro per passenger departure tax levied on the airlines. He is especially incensed that the tax is called “extra profit” tax.

It will be a huge blow for every Hungarian wishing to travel on the cheap, If RyanAir cancels its flights from/to Hungary.

The announcement will come on Tuesday.
https://www.vg.hu/cegvilag/2022/09/baljos-arnyak-varatlanul-budapestre-erkezik-a-ryanair-vezere-es-bejelentest-tesz

wolfi7777
wolfi7777
September 11, 2022 11:50
Reply to  tappanch

Wizzair which is under Hungarian management/ownership might be happy if the competition leaves – and the Hun government wants Ryanair out!
https://dailynewshungary.com/government-may-not-stop-until-ryanair-leaves-hungary-here-is-why/

tappanch
tappanch
September 11, 2022 15:02
Reply to  wolfi7777

1.
In the last year or so, WizzAir has become more expensive than RyanAir

2.
WizzAir is great towards the Balkans, Georgia or Kazakhstan.

RyanAir is better towards western Europe. (All right, I admit I am ignorant about the German direction)

wolfi7777
wolfi7777
September 11, 2022 15:57
Reply to  tappanch

We used Ryanair many years ago to fly from SOB (Sármellék on Balaton, near Hévíz) to London. OK, but wasa typical “cheap” flight, advertising all the time and any extras had to be paid.
Don’t know if flights to Western Europe from Hungary are worthwhile still.
I’ll use Eurowings soon to fly to Stuttgart from Budapest, maybe a bit more expensive but well organized (EW belongs to Lufthansa).

Pantanifan
Pantanifan
September 11, 2022 08:49

RyanAir CEO Michael O’Leary is traveling to Budapest and will make an announcement at a press conference on Tuesday. He has already been to Brussels and Athens to announce RyanAir is pulling out of operations there because of the introduction of airline taxes.

Looks like RyanAir could be leaving Hungary too?

https://www.vg.hu/cegvilag/2022/09/baljos-arnyak-varatlanul-budapestre-erkezik-a-ryanair-vezere-es-bejelentest-tesz

tappanch
tappanch
September 11, 2022 15:27

Front lines according to the Russian military spokesman

Shown on September 10:
comment image

Shown on September 11:
comment image

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
September 11, 2022 16:02

So the Russian media today is claiming the Ukrainian military casualties in just five days of its counteroffensive exceeded 12,000, and more than 4,000 Ukrainian troops were killed and another 8,000 injured between September 6 and 10 in the south and east of the country. I can accept those numbers as close to real.

But what about Russian losses? Ukraine’s General Staff has so far only issued total estimates for Russian casualties from Feb 24 up to Sept 11. Their total for that extended period is estimated to be 52,650, wounded are not included.
NATO and CIA/NSA estimates of Russian losses for the same period are at least 20,000 lower.

What is clear to me, and PTSD triggering in fact, a vast slaughter has taken place in the last 48 hours. I woke up this morning after dreaming of North Vietnamese tank crews trying to escape their burning tanks back in 1972. It’s the same horror today.

Don Kichote
Don Kichote
September 11, 2022 21:44

„… the Russian media today …“ … „I can accept those numbers as close to real.“ és Jézus, Mária és József. Honestly, you sound more and more like propaganda.

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
September 12, 2022 02:43
Reply to  Don Kichote

You think Ukrainians are not being killed? Normally in offensive operations the attacking troops take much higher casualties than do the defending forces. Just because you win a battle does not in the least mean, you did not take huge losses doing so. There are situations where that is not the case.

In the Battle for Okinawa our attacking Marine forces did lose only about 50% of the estimated Japanese losses which were about 110,000. In the Battle of Berlin to end WWII the Russians close to the same number of soldiers that the Germans did who were dug in and fought
fanatically. Russian casualties about 82,000 and German about 91,000.

That is why I can accept the Russian estimates of Ukrainian casualties from this engagement. The Russians tried to execute a fighting withdrawal that became an escape and panic retreat. The Russians and Ukrainians were heavy combat for days before the retreat and the Ukrainian officers admit heavy casualties to breech the Russian defenses forcing the retreat. I am confident many Russians died in combat too in this engagement.

Don this a real war on a scale we really have not often seen since WW2. The Iran Iraq war, even the brief Chinese Vietnamese war for example had huge casualties too. Many, many young men are being killed.

Don Kichote
Don Kichote
September 12, 2022 11:24

It’s not about Ukrainians falling, it’s about you quoting propaganda sheets here. I still lack the answer to a question that also others have already asked. What can Ukraine do to stop the war? If they give up they will be deported and or executed. It is not even sure if it will lead to peace. In this light, your interjections that Ukraine should surrender are ridiculous and nothing more than propaganda Istvan.

The justification for dropping nuclear weapons on Hiroshima and Nagasaki by the USA “to protect their own human lives” are perverse and a war crime against civilians as well as a universal argument usable for every crazy dictator.

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
September 12, 2022 16:25
Reply to  Don Kichote

To say no one should ever quote Russian sources anymore is simply foolish. The New York Times does so, the Washington Post does so, the Wall Street Journal does so, the BBC does so also. None of the Russian or Ukrainian causality figures have been verified independently. That is not likely to happen any time soon either. Both the Russian and Ukrainian military have banned most reporting from combat areas, with some exceptions.

Zelensky is viewed by the US public overall very favorably. But not so much internally by the Biden administration which actually opposed this offensive, but wisely kept publicly silent. Now that Ukrainian forces can hit Belgorod Russia with their 155mm artillery. Belgorod is now only 40 kilometers (25 mi) north of the of the the Ukrainian advance. I am sure Biden is even more nervous about escalation and containing the situation.

To answer your question the Ukraine probably can’t do much to end the war. The offensive and the Russian confused panic retreat back to Russia’s Belgorod Oblast. Prior to the retreat Russian had been moving units to defend Kherson.

The Russian lines actually held for days even weakened by strategic withdrawals. The Russian-installed head of the Kupiansk city administration, Vitaly Ganchev has been on Russian media publicly stating the Ukrainian offensive generated an 8 to 1 numerical advantage over Russian forces in the areas of greatest advances. In fact he was even on the English language RT news. His claims were not retorted by the Putin administration either.

Because Putin is formally the Supreme commander of the Russian forces all the blame is placed on the Russian field commanders, much like Hitler did during the German collapse. There is no doubt Putin approved of the shifts the Russian Army made, and like Stalin he will shoot his generals before he accepts his own strategic errors that created this retreat to Russia.

Ukraine clearly should not surrender, but as is obvious it is economically and militarily completely dependent on the US, EU, and NATO aid. The pressure to limit costs by reaching a cease fire will increase here in the USA as time goes on. We have huge climate change related costs to deal with in the USA, including endless wild fires, and relocating millions of people from major East Coast cities, and a big part of Florida due to rising sea levels that are inevitable based on the best science no matter the reduction in green house gases being emitted within less than 30 years.

There is no question the Russians are going forward with an economic war against the EU. There is amazingly something close to a staged open debate in Russia right now about going to full mobilization that likely would include a vastly expanded draft and I guess a change in status from the Ukraine war being a special military operation.

By the way Don my own father was slated to be part of the northern US invasion forces for Japan in the late stages of WWII. He was a navy combat engineer, chances are his own life was saved by the USA unleashing atomic bombs on Japan.

The USA has never claimed it would not use nuclear weapons again, so far we have avoided it. The possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons against Ukraine is simply not discussed here in the USA, people are oblivious to this possibility and the major article written by the Ukrainian military leadership two weeks ago got very limited coverage here and was not discussed as part of the TV and cable based news shows. Biden will not discuss the possibility lately only saying Putin is being irresponsible in rattling his nukes.

Except among former military people and journalists covering defense issues there is very little discussion of the USA’s hypersonic nuclear capable missile (called the Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept) development program which is advancing rapidly. In the current US Defense budget, the Biden administration has requested $7.2 billion for long range fires, including hypersonic missiles. In a report last year, the US Government Accountability Office identified 70 efforts related to the development of hypersonic weapons, expected to cost nearly $15 billion between 2015 and 2024. The United States has committed approximately $5.3 billion in military assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden Administration, including approximately $4.6 billion since the beginning of Russia’s invasion on February 24.

We are now in the middle of a cold war with Russia and China its that simple really. If Ukraine gets a chance for a cease fire deal, it should take it fully knowing Putin could violate it. Right now there is no deal being offered at all, so they just have to fight on and on.

wolfi7777
wolfi7777
September 11, 2022 22:06

Back to the situation in Hungary. Have we seen this yet:
https://freedomhouse.org/countries/freedom-world/scores
Hungary is considered “partially free” – one of the lowest ranks in Europe.

tappanch
tappanch
September 12, 2022 00:24

Local by-election in a small part of the Royal Castle district for one local government seat.

Did not vote: 63.07%

Fidesz: 19.60% (423 votes)
Opposition minus Jobbik : 16.82% (363 votes)

With this 60 extra votes, Fidesz + Jobbik will have the majority in the local government council from now on.

https://www.valasztas.hu/helyi-onkormanyzati-valasztasok/budapest-i.-kerulet-20220911

tappanch
tappanch
September 12, 2022 00:33
Reply to  tappanch

Another by-election in Budapest (district III) a week ago.

Here there was no danger that Fidesz would take over the local government in case the opposition lost.

Did not vote: 75.82%

Fidesz: 12.11%
Opposition: 9.27%

https://www.valasztas.hu/helyi-onkormanyzati-valasztasok/budapest-iii.-kerulet-20220904

wolfi7777
wolfi7777
September 12, 2022 07:44
Reply to  tappanch

Does this mean that Hungarians just don’t care anymore?At least two thirds of them, even in Budapest?
Looks ridiculous to me – well (or rather not …) they have to pay the price.
The crazy side of this is that all of my wife’s family, friends and our neighbours wish Fidesz to go to hell – I don’t know any Fidesz fan at all.

tappanch
tappanch
September 13, 2022 10:31
Reply to  tappanch

Orban: ‘we just captured the royal castle’

https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=632688151562120

tappanch
tappanch
September 12, 2022 00:48

The huge, natural gas-fed power station in the western outskirts of Kharkiv that Russia bombed today:

comment image

tappanch
tappanch
September 12, 2022 00:53

Retired commander of the US Army in Europe, Ben Hodges on September 11:

“US would respond to Russian use of a nuke because China, NK, Iran are watching. If we don’t respond then they are emboldened. Response would not necessarily be nuclear.”

https://twitter.com/general_ben/status/1568881668873764864

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
September 12, 2022 02:06
Reply to  tappanch

Yes there has been a debate about using a massive conventionally armed NATO and US missile attack on a Russian military base if they used tactical nukes on Ukrainian forces.

From what I have read it is believed that initial response would be more acceptable to Germany and some other NATO countries. Assuming the attack using missiles with non-nuclear warheads was sufficiently devastating to equal a Russian attack with tactical nukes it still could lead to a nuclear exchange. Biden’s people are exceedingly nervous about that tappanch. The retired US Air Force commanders generally argue for a tactical nuclear response and do retired US navy commanders from what I have been seeing on think tank blogs.

I am not a madman who wants WW3, but Putin is clearly facing the possibility of some of his forces fighting in certain places near the Federation’s border with Ukraine. That would meet Russian doctrine criteria for using nukes. Let hope we do not go down that pathway.

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
September 12, 2022 01:43

The Russian media is now promoting open criticism of the Russian high command made by the leader of Russia’s Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov over how the Russian retreat from the towns of towns of Izyum, Kupyansk, and Balakleya was carried out.
I have to wonder if this is a way of informing some Russian commanders to put bullets in their own heads to save the FSB the trouble of shooting them.

tappanch
tappanch
September 12, 2022 13:48

The US will distribute $1 billion in new military aid to every former Communist country in Eastern Europe, Greece and the former Soviet republics of Moldova, Georgia and the three Baltic states.

Excluded: Hungary and Serbia (Russian allies).

https://www.transcontinentaltimes.com/2022/09/08/blinken-visits-ukraine-to/

Pantanifan
Pantanifan
September 12, 2022 14:02
Reply to  tappanch

The link won’t open for me, interesting that Hungary and Serbia are left out – I can understand why, but wish the opposition was capable of making something out of it

tappanch
tappanch
September 12, 2022 13:59

A mere 20% cut will sustain the Orban dictatorship….

“COMMISSION MULLS 20 PERCENT FUND CUT FOR HUNGARY: The European Commission is planning to reduce the funds it sends to Hungary due to what it identifies as the country’s systemic corruption problems.
Chronic ‘inability’ to tackle corruption: In a note to the College of Commissioners, Budget Commissioner Johannes Hahn pointed to a “systemic inability, failure or unwillingness, on the part of the Hungarian authorities, to prevent decisions that are in breach of the applicable law, as regards public procurement and conflicts of interest, and thus to adequately tackle risks of corruption.”
Risky business: That systemic corruption, particularly in public procurement, meant EU public money was at risk if it kept being distributed to Hungarian authorities, according to the note, dated July 20 and published on the Commission’s transparency register. Hahn proposed freezing 70 percent of the funds for three programs for cohesion policy that Hungary was hoping to benefit from under the EU’s regular seven-year budget.
Size of the cut: According to estimates by Green MEP Daniel Freund, that would amount roughly to 20 percent of the total EU funds Hungary was supposed to get in that seven-year budget. “It is right that the Commission finally acts and wants to freeze funds … However, many EU billions would continue to be exposed to the systematic corruption” of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s “system,” Freund said.”

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/sweden-leans-right-parliament-car-crash-hungary-funds/

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
September 12, 2022 17:08

This article today
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/12/kremlin-ukraine-russia-war/
discussed Dmitry Medvedev‘s comments on forcing Ukraine to completely surrender. The unstated basis for complete surrender would apparently be the use of nuclear tactical weapons on Ukraine.

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
September 12, 2022 17:27

Responding to Don I can also accept these new estimates put out today by Ukraine of Russian losses. https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/na-pivdni-ukrajini-zsu-znishchili-mayzhe-2000-okupantiv-novini-ukrajini-50269452.html It translates clearly into English using google.

Don Kichote
Don Kichote
September 12, 2022 17:27

Istvan to your answer “September 12, 2022 16:25” I’ll keep writing here, it’s easier to read.

That’s the way it is, and it doesn’t matter whether Putin drops a tactical nuclear bomb or not. We in Europe have our backs to the wall and Ukraine is also fighting for us. We is EU without Hungary because that has already gone to ruin. I read your post like that Zelensky has only the way forward … as Putin. The war will decide the future of the Soviet Union and Europe … and I do not want to become a Russian.

The propaganda can be called especially when you want to sell something at the end it is all sound and smoke.

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
September 12, 2022 19:50

Don I hope for all our sakes Dmitry Medvedev‘s comments on forcing Ukraine to completely surrender using nuclear blackmail don’t reflect the thinking of Putin. But I suspect Putin is like a mad dog right now and a very dangerous man indeed.

Don Kichote
Don Kichote
September 12, 2022 20:23

Have I ever asked you if you know Viktor Orbán?

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
September 13, 2022 15:46
Reply to  Don Kichote

I met him only once in Chicago, he actually visited the largest Catholic Hungarian Church in Chicago that my family helped to found around 1920. I think I described the meeting in a post on Eva’s blog years ago. Her response I think was something like – yes he can be very charming and has on that level good skills to be a politician.

Don Kichote
Don Kichote
September 13, 2022 17:02

I remember an article about the young Orban on a trip through the USA. If I remember correctly Orban had somehow secluded himself. Anyway, so far I could not detect any skills for a good politician. What is obvious is pandering to narcissists and talking down to the people. So skills that a worker with a big mouth has. Catholic Church … perhaps life in the Catholic Church is already purgatory.

tappanch
tappanch
September 12, 2022 20:00

Brave local government officials in Moscow and Peterburg demand the resignation of Putin.

“We are laconic in order not to to “discredit” anyone”
[which is punishable by long jail sentence]

https://twitter.com/kseniathorstrom/status/1569224895216730114/photo/1

tappanch
tappanch
September 12, 2022 20:02
Reply to  tappanch

correction: (elected) local government deputies

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
September 12, 2022 20:35

For those who read Hungarian András Rácz’s comments https://telex.hu/kulfold/2022/09/12/harkiv-ukran-ellentamadas-elemzes-racz-andras about the Russian attempt at a retreat and its turn into an escape fiasco were totally correct I think.

Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
September 13, 2022 02:29

Putin needs to officially declare war against Ukraine in order to access the “full monty”-button of gearing the country to war.
That is a difficult decision to make against a large country connected with the strongest gang in the hood. Securing a win in a war in Europe, is probably the most difficult conflict-scenario anyone could choose – hence the hybrid war and special operations, with little progress. The European NATO partners (except Hungary) make out tried and tested fortresses by themselves, but together they have the broadest modern scope on events at their disposal. Russia is very far behind in that respect. Their assets are the nuclear threat and a carefully constructed poltical image of invincibility without realistic military testing – before now.
But for Russia, opening a wider Western front bares the East. There is no way Russia can cover both ends, while China patiently awaits an opportunity to grab Mongolia.

Last edited 4 months ago by Michael Detreköy
Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
September 13, 2022 14:00

I agree.

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
September 13, 2022 14:59

So Magyar Nemzet ran this strange article today https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2022/09/szijjarto-magyarorszagnak-is-koszonheto-hogy-a-nato-a-vilag-legerosebb-katonai-szovetsege. It is about a speech Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó gave on Tuesday at the Lithuanian airbase in Siauliai to Hungarian fighter pilots and support airmen. Unlike the endless attacks on the EU and NATO for promoting war and bloodshed in Ukraine, suddenly Szijjártó is quoted as making statements like these “You have to guarantee our safety, sometimes even up close with the Russian Air Force, in such a way that that particular string does not snap.” and “We want peace, but for now the military situation is not like that, we see that the war situation is getting worse. The most important thing now is to prevent the escalation of the conflict.” 

Even stranger Szijjártó made an argument as to why the Hungarian military is important to NATO and makes it stronger. One has to speculate if team Orban is suddenly shocked by how much of an ass kicking the Russians have just taken in Ukraine and is doing his usual peacock dance. Or is Szijjártó worried about the likely possibility that NATO is no longer fully sharing intelligence about the war in Ukraine with Hungary due to it being a conduit to the Russians? Could such a development lead to the de facto removal of Hungary from NATO? NATO doesn’t have any mechanism to expel members so all it can do is quarantine Hungary. My impression is that is happening right now. 

Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
September 13, 2022 19:58

You are probably right about not fully sharing intelligence with Hungary and perhaps (or surely) even scrutinizing communication in and out of the country – that would be a logical precaution, knowing the degree of Russian integration with Hungary and Szijjártó’s close connections with the Kremlin.
Szijjártó could have gotten word that participation in Lithuania is actually an exam, the result of which will determine to what degree Hungarian forces qualify as strategic partners. Screwing up there would be handing NATO a perfect reason to consider strict supervision.
Military intelligence is closely coordinated between NATO members, but there are unknown amounts of spying going between partners as well.
This article gives a good idea of a type of loose ends that probably get extra attention, in these times:

Socialite, Widow, Jeweller, Spy: How a GRU Agent Charmed Her Way Into NATO Circles in Italy – bellingcat

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
September 13, 2022 15:38

Telex ran a technically excellent article on the use of drones in the war in Ukraine https://telex.hu/kulfold/2022/09/13/ukrana-oroszorszag-dron-hadviseles-haditechnika . But it does not discuss at all the significant psychological impact US remote very high tech drones (using often MQ-9 Reaper) operators have including PTSD see https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna55916299 . The NY Times did an extensive article about this not long ago https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/15/us/drones-airstrikes-ptsd.html.

Having repeated flare up of my own PTSD for years I am particularly sensitive about how war can be turned into a technical feat that seems to reduce the intimacy of death and supposedly protect soldiers and officers to some degree from the horror of war. As an artillery officer I was required to help document to some extent the Vietnamese artillery KIAs (basically communist forces killed in action by artillery fire). Of course doing something like that has a haunting impact and until I went into therapy for PTSD paid for the US Veterans administration I never realized how all that could reappear years later. The Telex author is a tech guy and likely has never experienced the impact of combat so this issue is probably outside his frame of reference.

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
September 13, 2022 16:46

I have many Vietnamese friends in Chicago who are combat veterans of the South Vietnamese Army. They get no services from US veterans administration at all, some were put in re-eduction camps following the 1975 collapse of South Vietnam. It is a disgrace to be honest.

They eventually were released and became so called “boat people” finding their way to the USA. A few were at the Battle of An Loc with me in 1972 and we have occasional reunions.

One of these veterans has a daughter here in Chicago who is a psychiatrist and with the help of the Vietnamese Association of Illinois now has a PTSD support program for some of these survivors. Below is a photo of a tee shirt made for a reunion meeting. I expect tragically Ukrainian combat veterans will have to endure the penalty of PTSD too.

BBF10DDB-8ADE-4F47-9215-477868F6C9A2.jpeg
tappanch
tappanch
September 13, 2022 22:54

Hungary tightens abortion access with listen to ‘foetal heartbeat’ rule
“the government cannot outlaw the procedure overnight. But taking a series of small steps towards restriction can pass more easily.”

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/sep/13/hungary-tightens-abortion-access-with-listen-to-foetal-heartbeat-rule

Orban wants to imitate and please the American Trumpists in case they come to power.

tappanch
tappanch
September 13, 2022 23:01
Reply to  tappanch

Magyar Közlöny 2022. évi 147. szám
2022-September-12

page 6102

Decree by the interior minister modifying a decree and the law of 1992.

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
September 14, 2022 04:14
Reply to  tappanch

Actually the Republicans could lose seats in both the US House and Senate over the abortion issue. As a Catholic I was expecting the Church here in the USA to be fully backing the harshest possible laws. Instead they have been exceedingly quiet about the harsher laws being promoted by Republicans.

The majority of US Catholics support women having at least some right to a legal abortion based on polling data.

wolfi7777
wolfi7777
September 14, 2022 12:07

We’ve discussed this already here.
Asides from the problem of incest and rape there’s a medical problem.
In Poland a woman who was expecting twins last year wanted abortion of one of them at least which was clinically dead.
This was denied so in the end all three died – a real win for the catholic church!
Almost as good as torturing and burning a witch!
At least her soul was saved – told me a young cath priest 60 years ago …
Since then I’ve considered them the worst enemies of humanity!

Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
September 14, 2022 12:49
Reply to  tappanch

Logically, there ought to be more relevant issues to address through legislation these days.
I would suggest a simpler interpretation: One more slice, cut from the long salami of legal and civil rights under the EU-umbrella.
One more strand, pulled out of the legal curtain between an aspiring dictator and his subjects.

Last edited 4 months ago by Michael Detreköy
tappanch
tappanch
September 13, 2022 23:46

#10
Ivan Pechorin, director of “Корпорация развития Дальнего Востока и Арктики (КРДВ)”

“Another Russian energy boss has died in mysterious circumstances after “falling overboard” from a boat,”

https://www.newsvl.ru/accidents/2022/09/12/212104/