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October 1st, 2022
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Since I read about linking Russian propaganda several times when I looked at the recent comments, I would like to make things a little better understandable. I think that by very good reasons the EU has banned Russian propaganda outlets from being published or being promoted otherwise. Drying out misinformation by reducing the number of links is impossible, but already limiting the range of propaganda is a good idea. This does not mean that statements of Russian officials mustn’t been quoted, or Russian claims mustn’t be reported about, regardless whether they were made in banned propaganda media or not. Every critical discussion about such a statement unveils the nature of propaganda as well. Technically linking all dubious sources is no good idea, since this might improve the ranking of such a website. I personally preferred not to link Orbán’s propaganda media wherever possible. However, there is a difference we should be aware about: As today Orbán did not invade a neighbouring country, he did not try to overthrow any government by killing its president, he did not order the Hungarian army to colonise any part of the world and to murder thousands of civilians living there, and Orbán does not threat the world by whipping out life on planet earth. So I would like to adapt to the rules the civilised part of Europe has given to itself.
I think that Russian propaganda needs to be evaluated but not just reproduced. Given the powerful tools we have been given by modern technology to translate with ever improving accuracy into multiple languages it is important to look at original sources.
I often read Mayar Nemzet first in Hungarian and then glance at the auto translation. I do the same with Vietnamese official media too.
My Russian is limited to what I learned when assigned to NATO in West Germany in a basic US Army class that was limited to phrases used in combat. So if I do quote a Russian source I try to use their official translation, which is a problem because the translation is often politically modified for English speakers.
Putin’s speech on annexation the other day is translated radically differently by Reuters, Hungarian newspapers, the New York Times, or individual reporters who are fluent native Russian speakers, all of them vary in important ways from the official transcript.
For Putin’s speech, go to his Kremlin website and use translate.google.com to get a pretty good translation.
The speech is the amalgam of the worst Soviet propaganda against the “West” and the US, spiced with Trumpism.
I remember my time in the Hungarian army as a draftee. I heard such rambling speeches there last time.
But when a high-ranking officer called Mozart a great Czech patriot in one sentence, and then followed it with the cleanliness of the pissoirs in the next – he was sent for mental evaluation.
Contrary to Putin’s speech, Russia is not an anti-colonialist state.
It has the largest remaining colonial empire – that is why it is the largest country in the world.
And Putin wants to add half of Ukraine to it. Half of Kazakhstan will come next – an easier prey.
Direct Soviet propaganda from the 1950-1985 era:
“Western countries have been repeating for centuries that they bring freedom and democracy to other peoples. Everything is exactly the opposite: instead of democracy – suppression and exploitation; instead of freedom – enslavement and violence. The entire unipolar world order is inherently anti-democratic and not free, it is deceitful and hypocritical through and through.
The United States is the only country in the world to use nuclear weapons twice, destroying the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. By the way, they set a precedent.
Let me also remind you that the United States, together with the British, turned Dresden, Hamburg, Cologne and many other German cities into ruins without any military necessity during World War II. And this was done defiantly, without any, I repeat, military necessity. There was only one goal: just as in the case of the nuclear bombings in Japan, to intimidate both our country and the whole world. “
“The United States left a terrible mark on the memory of the peoples of Korea and Vietnam with barbaric “carpet” bombing, the use of napalm and chemical weapons.
Until now, they actually occupy Germany, Japan, the Republic of Korea and other countries, and at the same time cynically call them equal allies. Listen, I wonder what kind of alliance is this? The whole world knows that the leaders of these countries are being watched, the first persons of these states are being installed listening devices not only in office, but also in residential premises. This is a real shame. A shame both for those who do this and for those who, like a slave, silently and meekly swallow this rudeness.”
I have been back to Vietnam since the war and the North Vietnamese combat veterans we met accepted us as fellow warriors.
There is probably tappanch greater resentment of how the current government treats physically and psychologically wounded veterans than there currently is of the US government.
In fact the major enemy of the Vietnamese is seen as China, as you may
know China and Vietnam fought a war in 1979 that the CIA estimated 26,000 PLA were killed and 30,000 Vietnamese troops were killed.
Many Vietnamese of Chinese ancestry were forced out of Vietnam following that war. The family immediately next door to our home in Chicago are one of those families.
We speak Vietnamese together most mornings. Our home here is about 3 blocks from the center of the Vietnamese community in the city. Many families have moved to Chicago’s northern suburbs.
Because of the threat of China Vietnam wants access to US weapons see for example https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/singapore-airshow/2018/02/07/us-looks-to-increase-weapons-exports-to-vietnam-decrease-russian-influence/ .
For the US forces waiting to launch the US full scale invasion discussed here https://history.army.mil/books/wwii/MacArthur%20Reports/MacArthur%20V1/ch13.htm# the atomic bombings and rapid surrender saved many lives of US Army and Marines.
There were estimates made my Department of Defense that a ground war in the Japanese mainland would have led to massive destruction of Japan. The atomic bombing was horrendous but after the tenacity of the Japanese defense in Battle of Okinawa that lasted for 2 months and 3 weeks. US commanders knew the fight for the mainland could require killing millions of civilians and Japanese soldiers and sailors. The US had 12,520 killed in action and
~38,000 to 55,160wounded. The Japanese had 77,166 soldiers killed by their records and
110,000 Okinawan conscripts killed many fighting with only spears in the fight to take Okinawa.
Thank you for your comment Istvan, I often heard that the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagaski served the purpose of saving US lives but this is the first time I hear about the lives of Japanese that were saved with the war being cut short but I have to wonder to what extend the US cared about that. And of course things are seldom so simple as resorting to nuclear weapons was also a way to signal the USSR that the US had reached a new level of fire power. Lastly let’s not forget the bombing of Tokyo in March 1945 with incendiary bombs caused more victims than either one of the bombings of August 6 and 9 1945.
Hollywood: When you watch an American anti-war film, reality is Americanized. If the Americans put an analysis over assumptions, one would have saved human lives, then this is American glossed over or even bent. If the atomic bombs on Japan have saved human lives then the USA has burned these again by her following wars. This is contradictory especially if you pull the alleged morality card.
Once that is said, Japan would have surrendered if the US plans were an annexation of the island of Japan. I don’t think so and thus the argument to save “human lives” would be invalid anyway.
The primary concern of Truman was potential US causalities, but the Japanese were indeed preparing the population for full mobilization and total defense of the homeland. So massive Japanese civilian losses were probable.
Thinking gymnastics – oh yes of course the reading the USA would have saved also millions of Japanese lives sounds good for ordinaries. If Putin uses this argument who can be angry with him, right? I wonder how far you can stretch that “I killed him to save lives”.
There seems to be growing evidence that the Russian retreat from Lyman was though a relatively narrow road. The troops were mauled during the retreat and some Russians decided to surrender instead of being slaughtered.
This is a very common tactic and US forces retreating from the Chosin Reservoir during the Korean War were similarly mauled by the Chinese Army for almost 17 days. When I was trapped in 1972 with South Vietnamese forces in An Loc by North Vietnamese General Võ Nguyên Giáp he tried to lure us into such a death escape.
Fortunately for the South Vietnamese, US air surveillance and sound detection devices picked up the trap and the advisers from the US Army including myself as a translator were able to convince South Vietnamese General Lê Văn Hưng to not take the trap set by the North Vietnamese. The Russians were sent right into the slaughter possibly by orders from Putin himself. General Lê Văn Hưng according to reports I have read shot himself in 1975 rather than surrender to the communists, he has family members here in the USA.
This Wall Street Journal article https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-gains-full-control-of-lyman-days-after-putin-claimed-russia-rules-there-11664707959?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo provides a summary of the slaughter that took place at Lyman. (It may be behind a paywall).
I believe the article possibly does not understand how the Ukrainians let the Russians have an escape pathway purposely as many former US infantry officers believe happened. Apparently the Ukrainian Army took significant casualties too in the fighting.
And where is Hungary aka Orbanistan?
The presidents of Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland and Romania signed a joint statement protesting the annexation of Ukrainian territories occupied by the Russian army.
From Steven Nelson’s Hungarian Politics.
Well, O1G had to help Bolzenaro in the Brazilian elections – much more important.
By now, everybody knows where Orbánistan stands.
Working for the formation of a new league of quasi fascist states.
Da Silva, who led Brazil yesterday according to what I read 48.3% of votes with nearly all of the count finished. Bolsonaro was close behind with roughly 43.2%, a vote that outperformed final preelection polls by about 6 points. Right now in the world of gambling Bolsonaro is slightly favored in the runoff election. To say Bolsonaro is a fascist is not an overstatement and country could end up in a civil war.
Pluralities by state:
Red = Lula
Blue = Bolsonaro
This article from the VOA explains the current militarization of small islands by Vietnam in response to Chinas’s fortifications on many islands. https://www.voanews.com/a/east-asia-pacific_voa-news-china_chinas-not-only-country-fortifying-tiny-islets-contested-asian-sea/6203110.html
The above is related to a thread with tappanch.
An article from 2016:
https://thediplomat.com/2016/05/south-china-sea-who-claims-what-in-the-spratlys/
A map published in 2015:
“https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?hl=en&mid=1sLAlLHLFHNrrf8NRrDlRrZPVUjw&ll=9.423968933805552%2C113.99533704480419&z=8”
Apparently the Russian mass media is trying to explain to its own people what it’s new borders will be with the annexation of Ukrainian territory. Here is what I read today in English from RT news: “Moscow has yet to determine the future borders of Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions, which are set to be incorporated into Russia, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has told journalists…The two former Ukrainian regions voted last month to break away from Kiev and request being accepted into Russia. However, parts of them are still controlled by Ukrainian troops.
The issue of borders came up last week, when President Vladimir Putin signed orders recognizing the two regions’ independence. The documents did not include any reference to the demarcation of the territories. When asked by journalists for clarification, Peskov promised to give an answer later.”
Really such public admissions in a Putin controlled news service indicates a breakdown in Putin’s control over the day by day reporting.
So today I read about Orban’s new national consultation on the European sanctions against Russia https://magyarnemzet.hu/belfold/2022/10/fidesz-kdnp-mindenki-mondja-el-velemenyet-a-nemzeti-konzultacion . First Hungary agreed with imposing sanctions against Russia over the invasion of Ukraine, now it wants to poll the population about dropping the sanctions.
Putin permitted Orban to delay some of the the gas payments.
Gas delivery = G
pay now = g (state secret)
pay 1 year from now = (G-g)/3
pay 2 years from now = (G-g)/3
pay 3 years from now = (G-g)/3
interest = state secret
EUR/HUF down by 2% since the announcement.
(426 —-> 418)
https://www.portfolio.hu/gazdasag/20221003/nagy-marton-megszakadhat-a-gazar-es-a-forintarfolyam-egyuttmozgasa-ime-a-halasztott-fizetes-reszletei-570653
But Orban charges Budapest [and other local governments].
16 times the 2021 gas price for heating.
https://telex.hu/belfold/2022/10/03/karacsony-egy-ejszaka-alatt-60-milliarddal-ugrott-meg-a-fovarosi-iskolak-ovodak-tavhokoltsege
This means that Hungary can no longer pay its bills. I read somewhere that there is a government spending freeze “only wages may be paid”. Now already broke the election promises they are not paid out … although … they always promised lies.
When public payrolls suddenly become reduced and delayed, you can be sure that the end of the system is nearing.
Oh yes, the old fairy tale, I heard it 12 years ago – if the Hungarians don’t like the government, they vote it out. You should tell that to a king sitting on his throne. He will think “I disagree with that”.
There was a question from a reporter for Agence France at a US Department of Defense press briefing (https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3173997/senior-defense-and-military-officials-hold-a-background-briefing/) it was held on Sept. 28, 2022 this is from the transcript: “My second question is on the nuclear issue. If Russia did use a tactical nuclear weapon in the Ukraine area, does the U.S. feel that it needs to consult with or come to an agreement with NATO on a response?”
Answer from unnamed US senior US Defense official: “And then on the nuclear issue, I think you’ve heard National Security Advisor Sullivan speak about this recently, certainly President Biden has spoken about this. We have clearly warned Moscow that any use of nuclear weapons would result in serious consequences. And you know, we’re not going to get into the specifics of what those specific responses would be.
In terms of allies, we are very much in close consultation with our allies on all matters related to Ukraine, but also certainly on all aspects of the Russian threat. But of course, the United States also has its own prerogative to employ a U.S. option.”
The understanding of higher ranking US retired officers is that Germany’s NATO ambassador Ruediger Koenig has expressed opposition to President Biden’s statement of massive retaliation to any use of tactical nuclear weapons on Ukrainian forces by Russia. Therefore the USA made it clear we would not be restrained by NATO in our response.
The retired US officers who made the reference to Koenig did not indicate how they knew this.
It appears at least some Russian forces are collapsing in Russia’s Western Military District, Putin removed the commander only hours ago. Ukrainian troops recaptured villages along the banks of the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine, creating a large front that is forcing further Russian retreats according Reuters.
The clearly unhinged head of Russia’s Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov , is claiming to be sending three sons aged 14, 15 and 16 into combat against the advancing Ukrainians. Somehow I doubt they can turn back the tide.
These accounts of Russian captivity tell a lot about the Russian army mentality. The fact that Russian officers refuse to accept the idea that Western individuals can act on their own accord in volunteering for Ukrainian forces tells even more.
Alex Drueke, Andy Huynh detail Russian beatings, interrogation – The Washington Post
I believe the Ukrainian forces recieve regular strategic salt-water injections from experienced Western fighters which exceed anything the Russians can come up with.
There is a New York Times article today, behind a paywall of course, on why some think Putin is having difficulty deploying tactical nuclear weapons against advancing Ukrainian armor and infantry.
One obvious reason is the Russian infantry in the field are not equipped to survive in a nuclear battlefield. This is the existing US Army manual for fighting in the context of tactical nuclear war https://docslib.org/doc/6847957/fm-100-30-nuclear-operations . It is not classified.
Currently there is a debate going on among retired US Army officers about this manual and updating it. President Biden will say nothing publicly about this issue, his official stance is there are no winners in any nuclear war.
It is my understanding that the Russians have a similar manual to FM 100-30 and I have seen it referenced before in articles and academic papers through the US Army War College located in in Carlisle, Pennsylvania.
I know of several Hungarian officers who received MA degrees from this War College. At least one wrote a thesis on Warsaw Pact planning for nuclear combat that was very interesting.
Today the Russian media had Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov made a direct criticism of Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of the Chechen Republic, for suggesting that Russia should use “low-yield nuclear weapons” against Ukraine. But that criticism was a very strange one. Dmitry Peskov was asked at a press conference if Kadyrov’s remark could be considered an inappropriate display of emotion, the Peskov said that in Russia, the use of nuclear weapons “is based on what is laid down in the respective doctrine.” The problem was that in no Russian publication that I saw today was that doctrine adopted by Putin in 2020 linked to for Russian citizens to read. Here is a link to an English translation of that doctrine: https://hansdevreij.com/2022/03/06/basic-principles-of-state-policy-of-the-russian-federation-on-nuclear-deterrence/
Possibly one reason this doctrine was not widely discriminated is because it contains these passages:
III. Conditions for the transition of the Russian Federation to the use of nuclear weapons
17. The Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy.
18. The decision to use nuclear weapons is taken by the President of the Russian Federation.
19. The conditions specifying the possibility of nuclear weapons use by the Russian Federation are as follows:
a) arrival of reliable data on a launch of ballistic missiles attacking the territory of the Russian Federation and/or its allies;
b) use of nuclear weapons or other types of weapons of mass destruction by an adversary against the Russian Federation and/or its allies;
c) attack by adversary against critical governmental or military sites of the Russian Federation, disruption of which would undermine nuclear forces response actions;
d) aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy.
20. The President of the Russian Federation might, if necessary, inform the military-political leadership of other states and/or international organizations about the Russian Federation’s readiness to use nuclear weapons or about the decision taken to use nuclear weapons, as well as about the fact that nuclear weapons have been used.
As is obvious from this translation of the doctrine the sole individual in Russia who determines when the “very existence of the state is in jeopardy” is Putin and only Putin. There is no failsafe process established in the doctrine. Now just for the Hungarians readers of this blog who might wonder what the US failsafe system is, it’s honestly not much better. The United States nuclear arsenal can go from standby to missile launch in about five minutes. The process is outlined in a video that can be seen here https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/heres-goes-presidents-decision-launch-nuclear-weapons .
In the USA there is a brief consultation requirement prior to the President ordering a nuclear attack, but there is no veto for anyone to stop the launch.
I learned about this article today https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2022-10-02/putins-threat-of-a-nuclear-strike-on-ukraine-may-not-be-a-bluff-what-do-we-do-now from listening to klubradio this morning https://www.klubradio.hu/adasok/putyin-terrorcselekmenyekkel-kiserli-meg-a-visszavagast-129664. Stories travel internationally now with lighting speed.
Retired US General and CIA director (for just more than one year) David Petraeus was interviewed about Putin’s situation in Ukraine on the US network ABC on Sunday.
His position is Russian has lost “And even the use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield won’t change this at all.” The full interview can be seen here https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/putin-faces-irreversible-reality-ukraine-invasion-latest-moves/story?id=90824658
General Petraeus has a dubious history. Tuesday, March 3, 2015, the U.S. Justice Department announced that Petraeus agreed to plead guilty in federal court to a charge of unauthorized removal and retention of classified information. He gave this information to Paula Broadwell who he had an affair with and who was the principal author of his biography, All In: The Education of General David Petraeus. Broadwell was a lieutenant colonel in the US Army Reserves and an intelligence officer. So take all of that in consideration while you watch him. He is still very knowledgeable and more outspoken than many other retired officers.
István, Petraeus may be compromised, but most European military analysts agree that Ukrainian forces will eventually push back the Russian troops to a point across the Dniepr river region, from which they won’t be able to return again. What then happens in Crimea remains an open question. So far, the Ukrainian support of resistance in the annexed territories is very successful, and hybrid warfare is one of Ukraine’s stronger cards.
The Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt is conducting a separate public consultation, sorry, konzultacija about Russia and Ukraine to mock Orbán’s. It’s only possible to answer igen or da.
This article https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/10/05/putin-military-losses/ by Paul Sonne is really very balanced in its assessment of the Russian collapse and the ability of the Ukrainians to keep up the pace of their offensive.
Sonne is fluent in Russian and well read in Russian history, he also seems not to be just a cheerleader for Zelensky and a hater of Putin.
I also read this today: “Some estimates found that 700,000 people — about 1 out of every 200 Russians — left the country in the space of less than two weeks since President Vladimir Putin ordered a partial mobilization of troops to reinforce his faltering invasion.”
Of course they are overwhelmingly younger males subject to the draft. I doubt many of the 700,000 were openly opposed to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and certainly there is no evidence that these younger men or their families opposed Putin’s seizure of Crimea. In fact by 2020, 250,000 people moved from Russia to Crimea.
It reminds me of some of the opposition to the US war in Vietnam. While the draft was taking young men here in the USA and once students began to be drafted out of college with the abolition of the college deferment which allowed undergraduates drafted to complete BA degrees opposition was intense.
By the time I was sent to Vietnam on 1972 as a young officer right after my commissioning and language training the draft had ended and so had the huge protests against the war. People largely accepted Nixon’s bullshit peace with honor argument.
As long as US forces were handing off the war to the South Vietnamese really the 30,000 or so of us fighting there was acceptable and was covered really only in the more intellectually driven news papers in the USA. Of course the 30,000 dropped to a few thousand by 1975 without massive air support and the end came. The people here in the USA went on with their lives blaming the South Vietnamese for what happened. Basically the same thing happened in Afghanistan and President Biden blamed the neo-colonial government we created for the defeat and quick collapse.
The Hungarian teachers should forego pay increases and continue to work for the pure love of their profession. This sounds contemptuous from Alibaba and the forty robbers, but it is the normal tone of Kövér László “I decide who can talk”.
Would the teachers earn more today if Köver had had a good pedagogue … or is it not allowed to ask that?The sad truth is that public payrolls dry out in Hungary as we speak.
Fidesz’ card house crumbles. It won’t be long before “emergency measures” will be enforced in order to to keep a necessary minimum of people working for the community.
I can’t wait to see that happen. I hope the demonstration that took place yesterday in Budapest to support education and the teachers is just the beginning. Gazprom just allowed Hungary to defer its gas payments for a value of 1.9 billion euros. Of course, the details of the agreement are kept secret. I am only wondering if the European Commission will allow the EU subsidies to be transferred to Hungary so the whole country doesn’t collapse – that wouldn’t surprise me.
This video interview with two fired teachers does have English subtitles and is worth watching. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgoNo5oISuA Just for the record many US states also ban public teachers from striking. Among these states are Wisconsin where we have our second home.
As the teachers in the video noted in Hungary experienced public school teachers leave education and create teacher shortages. That is the case here in the USA, but it is the case in both states that allow teachers the right to strike and those that do not.
The problem of teacher burn out expressed by the two teachers in the video is a huge factor in the USA too. But there is also burn out among many different sectors of the the US workforce too. So the workforce here in the USA jump jobs endlessly in search of improved working conditions along with salary increases.
Magyar Nemzet did its best not to cover the education protests, with the exception of this story https://magyarnemzet.hu/belfold/2022/10/felloktek-a-hir-tv-tudositojat-a-kossuth-teren-video
It was not about the protests at all it was about a Hir Tv reporter getting shouted down for being a tool of the Orban government and the Orban controlled media. If you watch what happened on the video the lying Hir reporters was actually treated gently by the outraged crowd.
And the beat goes on …
In Budapest, Pécs and other cities the garbage collectors will go on strike.
Kövér said the fire departments will take over their job.
Of course a real Hungarian doesn’t care – he throws his cigarette butts, empty beer cans and plastic into the neighbour’s garden or on the street
After we’ve taken our standard walks through the small town I found new names for some streets:
One I call the beer can street, the other is the cigarette street and their corner is the pálinka sarok – hundreds of little plastic pálinka bottles are lying there.
I’ve probably written about this before:
Our neighbours have a kind of competition:
Who finds the biggest piece of garbage. Plastic bags don’t count, a pizza carton got second place but was just overtaken by a package of dirty baby diapers- maybe O1G’s family visited?
The Russian official news media today ran a story about Andrey Kartapolov, Chairman of the State Duma (lower house of parliament) Defense Committee‘s comments about the lack of information being given to the Russian people about the war in Ukraine by this same official media.
Kartapolov was quoted stating noting how Stalin’s Soviet Information Bureau during the early months of the Nazi invasion of the USSR in 1941 provided more information than what is being said in Russia’s Ministry of Defense reports today.
Really that was an astonishing statement for the same official media to be publishing. Following the rules established for this blog I am not linking to these stories which are in both English and Russian.
Now as has been evident from comments I have posted I see the US media as being far too compliant with Ukrainian military censorship on its own reporting on Ukrainian casualties and problems.
But some stuff does slip out. For example U.S. military veterans Andy Huynh, and Alexander Drueke who were recently released from Russian captivity and had been facing execution gave interviews to the US media. They had both been in the Ukrainian international brigade.
They were scathing about Russian use of torture, but also about the corruption inside the Ukrainian military itself, pointless casualties infantry were taking in assaults on fortified Russian positions, and sending Ukrainians into front line combat with little or no training. Some US reporters also interviewed wounded Ukrainian soldiers who also talked about high casualties and so medical evacuations. Since those reports the Ukrainians have blocked interviews with Ukrainian wounded soldiers.
We in the west are getting our own version of censorship too. This war, as do all wars, create a horror of death, mental illnesses, and former soldiers with permanent physical disabilities. The ultimate responsibility for this lies with Putin who created this nightmare.
This Magyar Nemzet article https://magyarnemzet.hu/velemeny/2022/10/inog-az-amerikai-vilagrend attempts to indicate that Russia is currently crushing the Untied States and the EU economically internationally. It goes so far as to state “the Russian-Chinese geopolitical alliance”, whose main goal was cooperation against the expansion of NATO. The article proudly proclaims the new world order apparently led by this Russian Chinese alliance will crush the US NATO alliance.
The article was a product of the Századvég Public Knowledge Center Foundation which also promotes Trump by the way, and they have a website if one can stand to look at it https://regi.szazadveg.hu/en/homepage Really how is Orban and Hungary allowed to remain in NATO.
It’ a difficult situation for NATO and the EU too – the rules don’t allow to throw a member out afaik.
But maybe if the crushed EU can’t give money to Hungary and the HUF falls even more against the € Hungarians might reconsider what to do with their NATO and EU membership.
We are living in interesting times …
I am (carefully) optimistic that the present teacher and garbage-collector demonstrations in Budapest will grow to a national level. If the mayor can land a deal with raises, others will demand compensation too.
These are the primary indications of crumbling ground under the Fidesz regime.
It’s no longer a secret that municipal and county budgets are maxed out in several parts of Hungary and wages are being witheld/delayed for many public employees at this time.
Eventually, as people don’t get payed, the protests will amass and a general strike (although the govt will never acknowledge) could be a reality. That would be the beginning of the end for Orbán’s mafia.
So a short while ago Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the Russian occupation administration in Kherson posted a video on telegram that has gone viral on social media across Russia.
He is reported to have said: “Indeed many people say that if they were the Minister of Defense (Sergei Shoigu), who brought things to this state of affairs, they would shoot themselves, if they were real officers. But the word officer is incomprehensible to many.” Sounds like the old days under Stalin when Lavrentiy Beria or Nikolai Yezhov (NKVD) would hand the gun to the comrade and say either you do it or we will your choice.
Actually Sergei Shoigu according to what I read was never an officer in the Red Army or the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Shoigu became a minor functionary in the Abakan branch of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, and then in the Komsomol for a few years. In 1990, Shoigu moved to Moscow from Siberia, and was appointed deputy chairman of the State Architecture and Construction Committee of the Russian Federation, assisted by his father’s connections.
Istvan, “hand the gun to the comrade” is nothing new …
This also happened to German Field Marshal Rommel in 1944.
That’s what you expect from a fascist regime.
Unqualified people being promoted to top positions and not because of merit but because of good connections, I believe I’ve seen this somewhere else in a specific EU Member State with its currency and state finances crumbling but I can’t remember which…
But who would hand the gun to the leader of Fidesz? Or for that matter to Putin? Clearly part of the reason Sergei Shoigu got to be Defense Minister was that he shared the rampant corruption with those Putin wanted to reward and supposedly kept the procurement process functioning for the military.
I will never claim there is not corruption inside the US military industrial complex. It is obvious by the very high cost overruns that are part of the process. The universities in the USA are part of it with DOD research grants, that are sometimes secret.
I was part of the process myself, but really only after retirement for 5 years. I made much more money than I did on salary as a reserve officer but stayed clean not getting involved in any kickbacks and avoiding even being near where they might happen. But the Russian officers want their cut forever and are obsessed with placing people here and there in the Russian military to keep the cash coming in.
Of course the military does not also reward employees with stock options beyond salaries and life time pensions. A company like Raytheon Technologies Corporation is very sophisticated and even uses consultants for the dirty work. In my time the big player was Halliburton Company and is associated firms.
The former U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney retired from the company during the 2000 U.S. presidential election campaign with a severance package worth $36 million. Now I assume Sergei Shoigu gets similar deals from Sevmash, Almaz-Antey, Sukhoi, and Irkut
Corporations. Of course some how Putin gets his cut too.
By the way Arkady Babchenko’s book “0ne soldiers war” is really the best book about the problems with the Russian infantry forces in the Chechen war is excellent and predictive of the current problems of the Russians.
So this story
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/06/biden-putin-nuclear-armageddon clearly indicates that the story being put out by the US Dept of Defense that there is no intelligence indicating Putin is nearing the point of using tactical nukes is to put it simple bullshit in my opinion.
Joe sometimes gets lost during speeches and speaks the truth. At a Democratic Party fundraiser in New York City last night the President told attendees that he knows Putin “fairly well” and said that the Russian president was “not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons.” He added, “We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis. I don’t think there’s any such thing as the ability to easily [use] a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon.”
Of course I am sure Biden knows for sure that most higher ranking US Air Force officers do not agree with the theory of mutually assured destruction that he espoused. They believe a nuclear war with Russia and or China can be contained in many ways.
In fact in classes on strategic studies taught at the US military service academies those options for victory in a nuclear war are taught and even computerized war games are played.
For the first time in weeks, the Russian army was able to capture new territory in Ukraine. Villages Vesela Dolyna and Zaitseve are 2-3 km SE from the town of Bakhmut.
tappanch I did not see this in the daily video address of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation via the Russian news agency RIA Novosti nor did I see it on the RT news site. Where did you see it?
guardian + the map on liveuamap.com
In addition,
“Offensive of the allied forces has resulted in the liberation of Zaytsevo (Donetsk People’s Republic) at Artyomovsk direction.
The offensive has resulted in the elimination of over 120 personnel from 58th Mechanised Infantry and 128th Mountain Assault brigades of the AFU, as well as 3 infantry combat vehicles.”
Spurce: Russian Ministry of Defense
“Allied forces”? – How much Russian propaganda do you propose we accept?
tappanch quoted the Russian statement, he did not author the use of the words. I am pretty skeptical about both Russian and Ukrainian claims. But it seems pretty clear based on western reporters on the ground the Russians have been driven back and Putin has admitted on TV Russian forces are attempting still to regroup and in his translated word “stabilize” the military situation only 48 hours ago. Putin was at a meeting with Russian teachers aired on Russian channel one when he made those comments which has closed caption in English on channel one.
So today the Russian media is claiming that Volodymyr Zelensky in a question and answer session via a video link to the Lowy Institute in Australia stated he supported a “pre-emptive” nuclear strike on Russia. Zelensky’s office later said that was an incorrect understanding of what he said. I think President Zelensky made to say the least an interesting response to a question from the Lowy Institute’s executive director Michael Fullilove. Here is the transcript provided to the media by the Institute:
Michael Fullilove: Mr President, in your remarks you mentioned nuclear blackmail. Mr Putin told us the other day that he’s not bluffing. So may I ask you, do you believe that the likelihood of the use of Russian nuclear weapons against Ukraine has risen, and what more do you want NATO to do to deter Russia from using nuclear weapons?
President Zelensky as translated by his own Ukrainian translator: (NATO should) eliminate the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons. But what is important, I once again appeal to the international community, as I did before February 24 – we need pre-emptive strikes, so that they’ll know what will happen to them if they use nukes, and not the other way around. Don’t wait for Russia’s nuclear strikes, and then say, ‘Oh, since you did this, take that from us!’ Reconsider the way you apply pressure. This is what NATO should do – reconsider the order in which it applies pressure [on Russia].
Shortly after the Russian media attacked Zelensky for this comment Mr Zelensky’s office issued a statement clarifying that he “did not call on NATO countries to pre-emptively use nuclear weapons against the Russian Federation — he spoke about the period before the start of a full-scale invasion”. It was claimed that that Zelensky was speaking of preventive sanctions not a nuclear strike.
I think Zelensky knows the USA is not going to authorize a preemptive strike against Russia over their intent to use tactical nuclear weapons against his country. Biden has always spoken of a response to a Russian attack. But Zelesnky’s habit of lecturing NATO and the USA clearly got him in some trouble this time.
But what is clear at least to me is a preemptive nuclear strike by the USA against Russia is not off the table in the situation of escalation that Biden talked about last night. A situation where Russia has used tactical nuclear weapons against Ukrainian forces and the USA, either with or without the support of NATO as an alliance, responds proportionately with a missile assault against Russian forces using either conventionally armed warheads or tactical nuclear warheads. If at that point the US joint Chiefs, NSA, CIA, and others believe Putin will launch a nuclear attack against NATO nations, and our homeland then indeed a preemptive attack could take place. That would be consistent with our existing nuclear doctrine, but it would be based on the final determination of President Biden. We are in very dangerous times indeed.
Nuclear war remains a ghost scenario. Please talk about something else.
In fact today I am going to discuss it more as did Magyar Nemzet today.
A very interesting interview of former Italian Prime Minister and head of the EU commission Romano Prodi where he also talks about the dangers of the Hungarian government and its possible cooperation with Mrs Meloni:
https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/interview-with-former-italian-pm-romano-prodi-it-would-be-suicide-for-meloni-to-start-a-fight-with-brussels-a-c80accd8-bc46-47d1-ac43-86242f57b7aa?
So in the end he is still optimistic …
“Good” news from the USA – it’s probably similar in Europe:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/03/pandemic-biden-trump-deaths/?
In Trump voter counties the death rate from Covid is higher than in Biden voter counties.
I wonder why?
Just as in Hungary the death rate is higher than in say Austria.
Some people will never learn …
PS:
I’m in Germany now and just got my second booster, the new vaccine. My wife had to stay in Hungary and is still searching for a way to get it too. Another of our neighbours died last week.
I just had two weeks ago my third Covid booster shot, it was the updated version covering more variations of Covid, I was sick with flu like symptoms for just under 48 hours. Other people have not gotten sick at all it’s a random walk I guess.
This article
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/10/07/covid-booster-winter-surge/ states: “ Only about 105 million U.S. adults — roughly 40 percent — have received the third shot of vaccine initially offered a year ago, according to federal data, a far lower rate than countries like the United Kingdom, where more than 70 percent of adults have gotten a third dose. That figure is also well behind the 200 million U.S. adults who completed their primary series of shots. Early data shows that just over 11 million Americans — or about 4 percent of those eligible — have received the new bivalent booster shots.”
Today on the Magyar Nemzet e-page an article appeared written by László Szőcs https://magyarnemzet.hu/ahelyzet/2022/10/armageddon-a-grundon . It discusses what I posted about on this blog the other day (October 7, 2022 14:12) This was President Biden’s comments made at a Democratic Party fundraiser in New York City where the President told attendees that he knows Putin “fairly well” and said that the Russian president was “not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons.”He added, “We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis. I don’t think there’s any such thing as the ability to easily [use] a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon.”
What I found interesting about László Szőcs article is that he attempts to take the position that on the issue of a a potential nuclear war Hungary is outside of it. Here is how he puts it (my translation) “On the nuclear front, the world’s two giants are Russia and the United States (Europe is not around the corner either); perhaps the nuclear threat is the aspect of the war in Ukraine that best highlights it: the big guys have the grudge, the little guys have the shut-off gas valve.”
Eva considered László Szőcs to be one of the more “intelligent” of the writers for Magyar Nemzet, but in this case he appears to use his intelligence to deceive the Hungarian people into accepting Orban’s duplicitous support for Russia while hiding behind the NATO nuclear umbrella.
Hungary voted to be part of NATO and once part of it decided to have a seat on the NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group that acts as the senior body on nuclear matters in the Alliance and discusses specific policy issues associated with nuclear forces. Hungary’s defense minster or designate attends its meetings. All NATO Allies are members of the NPG with the exception of France, which has decided not to participate. Hungary could have opted not to be part of the planning group like France, but effectively that would have meant that Hungary would not be under the United States nuclear umbrella as France is not.
Hungary does not allow nuclear weapons on its soil, and other NATO nations also ban them, but they are part of the NATO system if nuclear war would erupt, especially the Papa Air Base which is a NATO reserve base. It’s Heavy Airlift Wing that has a major US component of transport planes which have an installable system to launch nuclear capable cruise missiles. (See this article from 2020 https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/36878/air-force-c-17-launched-a-pallet-of-mock-cruise-missiles-during-recent-arsenal-plane-test) This is part of the creation of a single network that includes “arsenal aircraft”, as they do not have a means of identifying targets based on information collected by the Russians on other nuclear systems.
I have to assume by this point in time the USA is completely prepared to utilize C-17 transports as offensive weapons in the situation of nuclear war with Russia in the European theater. Putting a nuclear war head on AGM-158 JASSM cruise missile takes only minutes. It is made by Lockheed Martin and is designed to evade Russian and Chinese detection systems. The main role of this missile is to strike a vide range of valuable targets without entering hostile air defense zone. This missile has a range of around 370 km. It can be launched at standoff ranges, out of reach for hostile air defense systems. The photo below is what it looks like.
This article https://ridl.io/firehose-of-useless-propaganda/ on the Russian opposition website Riddle merits a serious read. It’s pretty complex and discusses the current status of the Russian propaganda machine. I need to think about it much more before I comment on it.
I often find Ukraine’s President Zelensky irritating but he said something the other day I thought was tremendously insightful about Russia’s threats over the use of nuclear weapons. He said essentially the Russian repeated discussion of the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine is a propaganda approach to prepare the Russian population for the the use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russian forces. Zelensky is quoted in the British media as follows: “They begin to prepare their society. That’s very dangerous. They are not ready to do it, to use it. But they begin to communicate. They don’t know whether they’ll use or not use it. I think it’s dangerous to even speak about it.”
Zelensky understands the world of modern TV, he is after all an actor by profession. Given what we can read in the Riddle article of how team Putin operates with its propaganda President Zelensky seems to grasp in a terrifying way what could be happening. I think President Biden in his unscripted comments gets it too. I don’t think anyone but Putin knows if Russia is ready to use a tactical nuclear weapon.
So as some of the past readers of Hungarian Spectrum know I have daughter who is a US Army reserve Lieutenant Colonel who does her normal reserve duty at Fort Carson Colorado and is a full time professor at Colorado State University. She sent me story about a 107 year old former Army Sargent who served in Europe during WW2 who was finally awarded last week a well deserved silver star for valor he should have received many years earlier due to Army error. Here is the link https://www.kktv.com/2022/10/04/107-year-old-colorado-world-war-ii-veteran-receives-silver-star-fort-carson/
My daughter attended the ceremony and found it deeply moving as did everyone who was at it. She wore her dress uniform and full array of combat ribbons for the occasion. My daughter wrote she was in tears while Sgt. 1st Class Harold Nelson‘s commendation was being read, a true hero she wrote to me. A hero I would add who helped liberate Europe from fascism and whose combat unit F Company, 2nd Battalion, 7th Infantry Regiment, 3rd Infantry Division sustained massive casualties in Europe.
„… liberate Europe from fascism …“ bold statement …
Yes that is the way the children and grandchildren of most of the 276,655 US Army ground forces KIAed in Europe/North Africa in WW2 see it. In fact most elementary and high school history books in the USA still characterize the victory over Nazis Germany and Italy as the liberation from fascism.
Of course many more Americans died in the US Civil War, most sources agree that the total number of Americans killed was between 640,000 and 700,000. I was speechless when first I saw the combined Union and Confederate cemeteries in Vicksburg Mississippi.
History a la Hollywood – all the Nazis like judges and policemen were reinstated by the Allies because there were no others. Nobody cared about the fascist priests. So much for the defeated fascism which is not yet mainstream in the USA but affects a good 25% of the voters.
Have I already told that in the former GDR workers were presented with an award as “Hero of Labor” so that this motivated others to work even more … there was also a Mother’s Cross for many children.
Don’t forget the “Ratlines” built with the help of the catholic church hierarchy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ratlines_(World_War_II)
One of the butchers of Syria, general Surovikin seems to want to take the town of Zaporozhia, after destroying it, Aleppo-style, with bombs and missiles.
Re: Sunday, October 9 attack at dawn.
Of course some of Putin’s fanatical supporters would much prefer he stop fooling around using missiles with conventional warheads and go nuclear. They want to bring Ukraine to its knees as quickly as possible, and yes they are insane.
The Russian media today, especially TV channel one is running stories about Surovikin and that he was given the nickname ‘General Armageddon’ by his Army colleagues. The Russian state media seems very proud of his murderous tactics tappanch.
So Telex ran a story about the US government stockpiling a drug used to treat radiation sickness Nplate (romiplostim) made by Amgen https://telex.hu/kulfold/2022/10/09/usa-sugarbetegseg-gyogyszer-oroszorszag-atomhaboru. But the article really is an attempt to reassure Telex’s readers that the purchase did not indicate the USA was preparing for a nuclear attack by Russia. Zsolt Sarkadi who wrote the article appears to have done zero research on the issue of what anti radiation sickness drugs the US military has stockpiled. In addition to this new purchase of Nplate the US Department of Defense has maintained a stockpile of Leukine, a drug which also treats ARS, since 2013. ARS, also known as radiation sickness, occurs when a person’s entire body is exposed to a high dose of penetrating radiation, reaching internal organs in a matter of seconds.
My understanding is the US military has sufficient supplies of drugs to treat radiation sickness for every active duty service person, National Guard member, and reserve member. Apparently Zsolt Sarkadi has never looked at the history of the US military and research on radiation sickness that goes back to the 1960s, see for example this article https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Book-details-government-s-radiation-tests-12247753.php about the history of some of this research. Also Zsolt Sarkadi never discussed the fact that Nplate was developed conjunction with the U.S. Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), and help of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. The funding for all of this comes from something called Project Bioshield Act was an act passed by the United States Congress in 2004. Since the 2001 terrorist attacks against the USA, the United States government has allocated nearly $50 billion to address the threat of biological and nuclear weapons. U.S. funding for bioweapons and nuclear weapons-related activities focuses primarily on research for and acquisition of medicines for defense.
We here in the USA have direct experience treating US military members for radiation sickness in particular going back to Jan. 17, 1966, a U.S. B-52 bomber and a refueling plane crashed into each other during a refueling operation near the southern Spanish village of Palomares, killing seven of 11 crew members but no one on the ground. At the time, the U.S. was keeping nuclear-armed warplanes in the air near the Soviet border as the Cold War was in full swing.The midair collision resulted in the release of four U.S. hydrogen bombs. None of the bombs exploded, but the plutonium-filled detonators on two went off, scattering 7 pounds (3 kilograms) of highly radioactive plutonium 239 across the landscape. It’s been called the worst radiation accident in U.S. history. The US sent in clear up teams and they many cases got radiation sickness and the US DOD got a lot of practical information on treating them.
So apparently at least some in Hungary are interested in radiation sickness too, and the interest apparently now is based on research related to wildlife near the the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. The Fidesz controlled Origo actually did an article about it (https://www.origo.hu/tudomany/20221004-ijeszto-ejfekete-lenyeket-fogtak-csernobil-mellett.html) and research related to oriental tree frogs (Hyla orientalis) living near the nuclear power plant. To their surprise, they found that the amphibians, which are normally bright green in color, turned midnight black.It is known that melanin is responsible for the dark color of many organisms. According to the article Melanin absorbs and disperses part of the energy of the radiation. It is also capable of scavenging and neutralizing ionized molecules in the cell, such as reactive oxygen species. These effects reduce the likelihood of cell damage in individuals exposed to radiation and increase their chances of survival. The article concludes with this: “Studying Chernobyl’s black frogs is the first step toward understanding how melanin protects organisms living in radioactive areas. It also opens the door to promising applications in fields as diverse as nuclear waste management and space exploration.” How about nuclear war?
One problem might be if Hungarians were massively injected with melanin in response to a Russian attack with nuclear weapons in neighboring Ukraine in order to adapt to the increased radiation levels they might turn into Black people. That could indeed set off an ideological crisis for Fidesz ideology.
Good news from democratic Europe this Sunday:
The Green president of Austria Mr Van der Bellen has been reelected. The six “alternative” right wing candidates together got less votes than Mr Bellen – good!
And in Geman state Lower Saxony the SPD has become the strongest party and the Greens are also strong so we’ll probably have them in a coalition – several of the right wing CDU honchos have already given up.
The fascist AfD got around 11%, surely because some people are frustrates by the ongoing war crisis.
But in most systems/societies you have around 10% of loonies.
Now if you compare this to poor Hungary where a few oligarchs have robbed people …
O1G will be visiting German chancellor Scholz in Berlin tomorrow. The big question is:
Will Hungary or rather Fidesz continue to support sanctions against Russia?
We’re only in it for the money!
The question of supporting sanctions will most likely not be brought to the table by Scholz. But the question of where Orbán places Hungary in the efforts to comply with goals for reducing the import of Russian energy and integration with the EU energy market vs German industries’ future investment in Hungary, depending on this condition, most certainly will be on the table.
Since some time, I have been wondering if this “culture of punishment” which one can easily discover in Hungary is a left over from before the communists, or from the communists, or was there a break after the communists until 2010?
Members of parliament get punished by Kövér for nothing basically, Ryan air gets punished for letting the travellers pay the costs of the taxes over “extra profit”.
People who worked and lived for education are fired because they protest against the fact that they can´t survive from their jobs.
Today the news came that hospitals will get punished if they do not fulfil whatever the government will ask from them.
https://nepszava.hu/3171882_adminisztrativ-es-motivacios-eszkozokkel-kurtitanak-a-varolistakat
The government institutions don´t pay the companies they buy their materials from, so these companies get punished because they deliver hospitals, offices government offices and prisons. I bet when they stop delivering goods, they will get punished too, or at least will be called immoral.
https://nepszava.hu/3171879_mar-a-rendorok-es-bortonok-sem-fizetnek-rendesen-beszallitoiknak
All these dumb and stupid Fidesz people can think about is sanctions to normal people.
It was such a pleasure to join the demonstrations from the students and the teachers, my heart was warmed by this. And as I wrote before, I think only big protests can disturb this dumb fascist regime.
It is a long way to go, because the support for the Viktor is still big in the country side, but some hope I got again.
The infliction of loss or even pain is a hallmark of totalitarian leadership culture. It goes back a long way. As reflected in the bible, the wages of “sin” are many and serve to regulate individual and common behavior by inciting fear of punishment.
During the late 16th and the 17th century, a revision of old midieval practices slowly started to gain official ground in Europe because of the more obvious royal advantages of “happier” and thus more productive and supportive populations. Eventually this led to a conversion of slavery to serfhood and the beginning of (carefully selective) chamber-legislation. Then gradually, more public representation, the growth of capitalism and eventually parliamentarism. And then came Marx.
But, looking back to the period of transition (also called “enlightenment”), as the old midieval practices went out, so did the easy and exclusive profits made by demanding that people work for nothing but physical survival. That resulted in the transfer of the old midieval practices through colonization, in order to secure profits and economic growth. But instead of going overseas to claim colonies, Hungary and some of the other East and Central countries went over land and colonized some of their neighboring territories rather successfully, and in this way the old midieval practices lived on in the rural areas that surrounded the Habsburgian city-based states of greater Hungary.
I think you may find part of the answer to the question there.
Unfortunately it
could require more than just massive protests, but likely bloodshed. It’s unclear for instance even many unionized teachers have been fired for protesting in the streets against Fidesz education polices and not for staging illegal strikes.
Well bloodshed we already have because of the regime’s politics.
Just look at the covid crisis where the resources were spent for useless ventilators and vaccines that didn´t work. When I remember well the proof for the quality of the Chinese soup was that there were already 2 million Serbs vaccinated before the start in Hungary, and nobody died from it.
Or take the health care, where cancer examinations have no chance to catch up because of the underfunding of the system. Let alone treatments not being applied.
Being unionized doesn´t mean anything here, every strike of teachers is “illegal” because Fidesz said so this spring (by changing the law).
They even fired a teacher who had no classes on the moment he was “striking”, so he was legally absent from school.
And there is no unclarity in the teachers’ actions and the government´s reactions.
The regime is afraid, is panicking and is punishing, nothing unclear.
Thanks a lot (:
So, since the creation of the world, it is like this in Hungary if I understand you well.
The propaganda is not even lying then. Funding the country on the bible explains it all.
I answered a reply from Michael Detreköy, now his reply disappeared, on purpose?
I didn’t remove it, Jan. Something else must have done it. Perhaps it returns.
The biblical parallel isn’t far from realities though, since it remains the only constant throughout.
We often note a certain staying behind or even regression by Hungary, regarding recent European political/social developments and trends in the rest of Europe. I believe the underlying causes of that must be of a historic nature.
I can only agree, the stupid thing is, that these dumbasses use the historical “injustice” to prove that it is good to live in the past, and many people I had contact with agree, and love the Hungarian “tradition” as they call it.
On the countryside the poor will freeze this winter, but will say to each other: “But at least our daughters and women were not raped by immigrants, thanks to Orban”
Effectively Putin has to use the old Nazis phrase entered total war against Ukraine with its massive missile assault against a number of Ukrainian cities. According to the Ukrainian count over 80 conventionally armed missiles were launched by the Russians with a possible half intercepted. The Ukrainian government indicated despite the interceptions key infrastructure objects in eight regions of Ukraine and in Kiev were damaged the head of the cabinet said on social media. In a statement the government indicated residents need to be prepared for temporary interruptions of electricity, water, and telecommunications.
Putin is being cheered by the nationalists in the media today who say the entire electrical grid of the major Ukrainian cities needs to be destroyed, the water pumping stations, and all parts of the urban infrastructure.
I tend to believe and hope Putin lacks the missiles for continuing the attack at that level, but we will see soon enough. The Ukrainians are calling for NATO and the USA to provide an iron dome level of protection for their cities. Currently the Iron Dome system developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems can only defend against missiles coming from one direction at a time but it is developing to defend from two directions simultaneously.
The Russians are launching from many directions in fact three cruise missiles launched on Ukraine came from Russian ships in the Black Sea crossed Moldova’s airspace. Others are being launched from the ground in Russia and from fighter bombers in the air. Some from Belarus’s territory. Of course all these missiles can be armed with tactical nuclear warheads at the order of Putin.
This use of weapons could be an indication that the Russians are having difficulties identifying significant military targets.
As the Russians are now saying the Ukrainians are terrorists and must be destroyed. The Russians if they do not exhaust their missiles they will continue attack cities because they no longer have any vision of military vs civilian targets since Ukraine is a terrorist state.
Of course Putin now has Gen Sergei Surovikin (aka General Armageddon) in charge of the war in Ukraine who oversaw the brutal bombardment that destroyed much of the city of Aleppo in Syria. He even looks the part of a madman.
I agree, the gloves have been off for too long for Russia to start fighting fair now and they will probably continue to come up with new rhetorical arguments to justify attacking civilians and claim victories that way.
Hopefully, the structural weaknesses of the Russian army will continue to crack, as the latest changes in leadership shows increased pressure to perform.
Magyar Nemzet’s lead article on the Russian missile attacks against Ukrainian cities is this article https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2022/10/az-infrastrukturat-tamadjak-a-felek-az-ukrajnai-haboruban the title of the article translates to “Infrastructure is being attacked by the parties in the war in Ukraine.”
The totality of the lead article in my opinion effectively justifies the total war stance by Putin and the launching of over 80 missiles at Ukrainian cities. The article prominently quotes Dmitry Medvedev, calling the Ukrainians terrorist and stating the direct destruction of the terrorists is required. There is no attempt at refuting Medvedev’s call for mass destruction of the Ukrainian state in this article at all. There is simply no question that Magyar Nemzet reflects the position of Fidesz and the Orban government. Here we have Fidesz justifying a massive missile attack by Russia on Ukrainian cities while it claims it is for peace. Fidesz is for a peace dictated by Putin.
In order to continue the game of being for peace Magyar Nemzet ran this article https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2022/10/szijjarto-magyarorszag-egyelore-fenntartja-a-kijevi-nagykovetseg-mukodeset in the same issue. Quoting Péter Szijjártó calling for peace negotiations, but he is not quoted as denouncing the Russian missile attacks on cities because Szijjártó did not do that.
Could anything else be expected of the Nemzet?
After all, they are the Hungarian version of Pravda.
They probably figure too few read Hungarian outside Hungary, to bother changing the “editorial” line.
Really that is true, they do provide English translations of some articles usually the less provocative ones. Even the generally pro-Orban American Hungarian Federation has become dysfunctional and its website has not been updated since March 19, 2022 as far as I can tell.
In fact the AHF has never run one article promoting the Orban call for peace in Ukraine and a cease fire. The reality is there is overwhelming sympathy for the Ukrainians among the the Central European communities in Chicago even the few Russians in Chicago I have run in to oppose the invasion seeing Putin as having gone mad.
On my block right now there are several Ukrainian flags flying from homes one in fact owned by a Vietnamese family. Even the Serbian community here is laying low in relationship to the war, Chicago’s Polish community has several former US Army soldiers fighting in the international brigade and of course Chicago’s large Ukrainian community has young people who are part of the international brigade fighting the Russians. Romanian evangelicals here are even raising money for to buy ambulances to send to Ukraine.
German media report not too positively on Chancellor Scholz and his meeting with “Putin’s friend” aka Orbán Viktor. Just one example:
https://www.merkur.de/politik/olaf-scholz-viktor-orban-treffen-ukraine-krieg-sanktionen-wladimir-putin-zr-91840595.html
There was no common press conference …
Yesterday O1G met Mrs Merkel but I couldn’t find any news on that.
Not positive, but very objective.
I imagine Sholz could tell Orbán about German govt. concerns over indirectly supporting Putin’s gas and oil export through industrial activity in Hungary – and without being too hypocritical, now that German import of Russian gas has practically stopped.
Not holding a press conference in Berlin looks more like a friendly gesture. Orbán would no doubt be grilled to a crisp by the media.
That allows him some time to consider whether he should change the present course.
Hungarian sources have a lot of positive things to say about the meeting of German chancellor Scholz and O1G and Greater Hungary and its position in the EU which is getting better every day:
https://dailynewshungary.com/pm-orban-hold-talks-german-chancellor-scholtz-in-berlin/
At the same time the Forint reached a new high – 426/428 HUF/€
Crazy!
Update:
Even better was O1G*s meeting last week with Serbia:
https://dailynewshungary.com/orban-this-is-the-beginning-of-cannibalism-in-the-eu/
Cannibalism?
Most Hungarians would be too obese for me …
The bizarre, or burlesque, take on events by Orbán & Co. apparently knows no limits. But when you see the extreme propaganda put out by the passionate “nationalists”, it does look a lot like the magazines you find in the airliners – There is this medicated sheen of happilly washed brains, North Korean style.
This is too beautiful to be missed.
https://nepszava.hu/3171933_orban-viktor-miniszterelnok-twitter-oldal-szabadsagharcos
Yes clearly Orban is a great freedom fighter that is obvious to the people under missile attack in Ukraine who are well aware Orban will not one bullet of military aid to cross the border between Hungary and Ukraine.
I love the Adidas outfit Orbán is wearing.
Was the Tamany-Kerch, a.k.a Crimean bridge blown up and moderately damaged by the Russian secret services and/or Putin’s foot soldier Kadyrov?
“A top Russian judge described as “unusually independent-minded and incorruptible” involved in high-profile cases was killed in the Crimea bridge explosion, it has emerged.
In a dramatic new twist it appears a black Cadillac belonging to judge Sergey Maslov, 42, was next to a truck which – until now – has been seen as being at the epicentre of the explosion.
The judge, who had investigated family members of Putin’s cronies as well as energy company Gazprom, which has close links to the oligarch”
“The car was close to the truck when the explosion came.
Already there had been suggestions that the explosion may have been a Russian operation to justify a huge missile attack on Ukraine, which has now taken place to please Putin’s hardliner backers.”
“The judge had “considered high-profile cases [involving] gigantic sums”, it said.
“The last case that fell into the judge’s proceedings was where Ramzan Kadyrov’s daughter acted as the defendant”.”
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/top-russian-judge-killed-crimea-28207926
Frankly why bother to blow up the bridge when throwing the judge out of a window would have done the job? And since when is the justice independent in Russia? I am skeptic at best.
Tappanch as you may know already the NATO nuclear exercises will start shortly and on Thursday there is a meeting of the NATO Nuclear Planning Group, Hungary will be in attendance at the meeting as far as I can tell.If Hungary was going to back off being in the Nuclear Planning group which I suspect Putin would like now would have been the time to do it. There is no indication Hungary plans to withdraw.
To be brutally honest this exercise called “Steadfast Noon”, is held annually and usually run for about one week. They involve fighter jets capable of carrying nuclear warheads, but do not involve any live bombs. Conventional jets along with surveillance and refueling aircraft also routinely take part its all about nuclear war with Russia. Fourteen of the 30 NATO member countries join in the nuclear exercise, but Hungary does not as far as I can tell, but it is formally a secret. However, the Czech Air Force JAS 39 Gripens are involved and loaded with practice nuclear bombs. So it is obvious the Hungarian Gripens are also nuclear capable too.
In March Hungary carried out practice sessions with US F-18 “Super Hornet” fighters.The training sessions took place in and around the following locations in Western Hungary on the designated days: Nagykanizsa, Nagyatád, Kaposvár, Szigetvár, Sármellék, Zalakaros, and Kaposújlak. The US F-18 fighters are not capable of launching cruise missiles with either nuclear or conventional warheads.But it was obvious the exercises were an attempt to coordinate Hungarian air control and observation units with US combat aircraft in a simulation of a Russian attack against Hungary following the invasion of Ukraine in February. They can carry very long range air to air missiles capable of downing Russia’s Tu-95MS and Tu-160 heavy bombers. These bombers can carry long-range nuclear air-launched cruise missiles as well as gravity bombs. In 2009, the Russian Federation declared 13 operational Tu-160 and 63 Tu-95MS.
There was a press conference today and Tappanch a Ukrainian reporter essentially asked about the possibility that the Russians blew up their own bridge, and if he had seen intelligence indicating that. He did not answer the question, nor did he deny there was any such intelligence.
The long range air to air missiles on the F18’s go about 190 km based on what I just read.
German SPIEGEL has not so nice words – sorry, most of the article is behind a paywall:
»Der Wolf kann nicht Vegetarier werden« Als einziges EU-Land verweigert Ungarn der Ukraine konsequent Hilfe. Was hält den Autokraten Viktor Orbán aus Budapest an der Seite des Kriegstreibers in Moskau?:
Google translate
Hello Dictator!
Was the chorus at a demonstration in Berlin – almost funny …
https://dailynewshungary.com/photos-hello-dictator-demonstration-against-viktor-orban-in-berlin/
Yesterday Orbán said in Berlin:
If Mrs Merkel were still ruling there would be no war in Ukraine.
And even crazier:
Our hope for peace between Russia and the USA is … drumroll…
Donald Trump as President!
https://web.de/magazine/politik/russland-krieg-ukraine/orban-berlin-hoffnung-frieden-heisst-donald-trump-37372216
The conservative FAZ has this to say:
Ungarns Ministerpräsident Viktor Orbán hat mit Donald Trump und Wladimir Putin gemeinsam, dass er oft Dinge sagt, die nichts mit den Tatsachen zu tun haben. Wie der frühere amerikanische Präsident und der russische Diktator betreibt er seine politischen Kampagnen mit einer giftigen Mixtur aus Halbwahrheiten, Lügen, Verschwörungstheorien und Verleumdungen.Dass Orbán seit Putins Überfall auf die Ukraine russische Narrative über den Krieg und die westliche Unterstützung für die Angegriffenen verbreitet und Trump als Hoffnung für Frieden in der Ukraine preist, ist nur konsequent
https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/orban-und-die-ukraine-verrat-an-der-eigenen-geschichte-18379900.html?
Yes Orban openly attacked President Biden yesterday much to the delight of Putin’s media. Orban spoke during a panel discussion with Alexander Marguier, left, Editor-in-Chief of German Cicero magazine and Holger Friedrich, right, publisher and owner of Berliner Zeitung.
Here is some of it: “The Ukrainians have endless resources because they get all that from the Americans.” Orban also argued that President Biden had gone “too far” by saying that Vladimir Putin should be removed from power. Orban also said Trump is the “hope for peace” in Ukraine.
Then he called for ceasefire talks between the US and Russia, (apparently excluding Ukraine) arguing that “anyone who thinks that this war will be concluded through Russian-Ukrainian negotiations is not living in this world.”
This article https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-11/biden-calls-putin-rational-actor-who-miscalculated-with-war indicates some level of confusion in President Biden relating to Putin.
One day he argues we are walking down the path to Armageddon with a crazy Putin and next day he essentially seen as a rational player. I am afraid President Biden is experiencing some cognitive processing issues and inconsistencies that given the US involvement in the war is pretty disturbing to me.
What is disturbing here? And what consequences could this “inconsistency” of Biden have? And many people already called Biden senile, but diagnosing cognitive disturbance just because you think Biden was inconsistent goes a bit too far for me. But maybe we could start a new conspiracy here.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/11/biden-putin-nuclear-weapons-00061355
I’m not sure if Biden’s zig-zag messaging (compared to Trump’s random tweeting) makes any real difference, except diplomatic. He downplays the NATO advantage.
Ukraine’s forces (with support, of course) proved themselves capable of adapting a wide variety of hard/soft-ware and specialized tactics to their particular conditions against a unified and nominally superior enemy with succcess. Why not just leave it at that?
I really don’t want to appear ignorant of the large number of well trained and brave Ukrainian infantrymen who fought and fight tooth-for-tooth in this battle. Without them, all could be lost very quickly in a rocket war.
I wonder, at this point in the war and the complications it brings, where the realistic Hungarian position comes in.
Is it confined to individual survival?
Is there a will to fight, at all?
Do Hungarians allow themselves to acknowledge Ukraine or do they not?
I am wondering how long it would take for the Ukrainians to develop their own nuclear weapon programme. When the war ends, Ukraine will be left with 2 options: either they become a member of NATO to ensure their future protection against Russia, or they build their own nukes. My guess is option 1 as other countries don’t want to see the proliferation of nuclear arms. Putin will lose once more.
The Very conservative Swiss newspaper Neue Züricher Zeitung has a very critical report on Hungary’s activities re Putin and Ukraine.
It also includes a really dark prognosis fro Hungarian speakers in Transcarpathia. Seems that since the Krim invasion maybe half of Hungarians have already left Transkarpathia …
https://www.nzz.ch/international/ukraine-krieg-ungarns-minderheit-in-transkarpatien-verschwindet-ld.1700909
The NZZ’s clear statement:
Hungary is Putin’s Trojan horse.
I mean if since childhood you have been told as a Hungarian speaker living in n the Zakarpattia Oblast (particularly in Berehove Raion and Berehove city) you are part of captive nationality wouldn’t you jump the border too if you faced combat?
The dirty secret is the Ukrainian Army is putting older men in the front lines. One in four people in Ukraine are 60 or older, according to government statistics. So a lot of men seeing serious combat are in their 40s and 50s.
It’s the same with the Russians. A Russian government-run web portal meant to provide information about the draft stated in mid September that former Russian privates and sergeants would not be called up if they were over 50. Senior officers could be sent to war so long as they were younger than 65.
My last combat as a US Army captain was age 42, I was in reasonably good physical condition still. But I was very worried about my composure under fire little things like flinching by officers are noticed and commented on behind your back by enlisted personnel.
It’s called formally having a Military bearing or command authority. Once respect and confidence in an officer’s ability is lost, it is a hard, long struggle to gain it back if ever fully regained.
By the way Zelensky being an actor does a really good job at projecting command authority. Given he has been thrown into a nightmare of decision making with no real preparation he projects a lot of confidence, but he must often be scared shitless.
Today the consultation questions were published.
https://hvg.hu/itthon/20221014_nemzeti_konzultacio_kerdesek_szankciok
There are seven questions you can answer with yes or no:
Do you agree with the Brussels oil sanctions?
Do you agree with the sanction for gas deliveries?
Do you agree with the sanctions on raw materials?
Do you agree with the nuclear fuel sanctions?
Do you agree that the Paks investment should also be covered by the sanctioning measures?
Do you agree with the sanctions that restrict tourism?
Do you agree with the sanctions that cause food prices to rise?
To be honest, I am happy about the consultation. Everyone who fills it in according to how it should be filled in according to the regime is a fascist, a heartless, sociopathic person. This consultation will show the amount of these people in Hungary.
And I will know how many of these monsters are around me when I sit in the tram.
Orban obviously wants to torbed the sanctions against Russia: “My people do not support the sanctions and I must respect the will of my people” … or something like that. Background is the Korona Cohesion Fund and / or other money. 🙂 There is no light at the end of that tunnel. Orban becomes a festering wound …
P.S. My neighbor told me that due to an election promise of Fidesz, a dirt road of two, which should be tarred, was already gravelled. Fidesz has announced that there is no money “Brussels is to blame” and the costs incurred must bear the village. 😀
What a surprise I thought! I meant that Fidesz is a gang of thieves, because he is a voter of Fidesz. The others also steal, he said reflexively … I had to laugh, but only me.
Don, sorry, but I had to laugh here:
“wants to torbed the sanctions”
Very clear statements:
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell warned Moscow today that its forces would be “annihilated” by the west’s military response if president Vladimir Putin uses nuclear weapons against Ukraine, AFP reports.
and
Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg also said Russia faces “severe consequences” if it launches a nuclear assault on Ukraine.
And O1G’s friend Serbia was informed that they won’t join the EU soon – maybe Hungary can join them and the Belarussians etc for a new Eastern Union?
One might think on the one hand the statements of Josep Borrell and Jens Stoltenberg on the other a veto against sanctions by Orban. The latter is independent of the former.
Obviously a few question are missing:
Do you agree with Hungary leaving the Brussels club?
Do you agree that we don’t want/don’t need the EU money?
Do you agree with the fantastic fall of the HUF and the horrible inflation?
Here some interesting background info:
https://dailynewshungary.com/orban-i-knew-before-the-war-that-something-was-wrong-with-putin/
But somehow this consultation is different. With the old ones answering with the “wrong” answer made no sense. With this one, you can show solidarity and empathy with the Ukraine people by answering that you agree with the sanctions. I wonder where this will go.
And by the way, the demonstration was a beauty today. I had a smile from ear to ear the whole way through. All these students and children with their parents, the teachers, and the appendixes like me. Cheerful, creative, heart-warming.
https://nepszava.hu/3172526_visszavago-galeria-a-20-25-fos-tomegrol-amely-penteken-budapesten-tuntetett-a-jovoert-es-a-tanarokert
Jan, when you are asked:
Do you agree with the sanctions that cause food prices to rise?
How many people will say: Yes, of course!
Anyway it will be interesting to see the results.
Wolfi, I know that, and the questions have nothing to do with facts. Still, it would be a statement if the no answers could be pressed under 80%, and the participation under 20%.
The Guardian has very disturbing results on how Hungarians see the Russian war – especially compared with democratic countries:
The polling, between 24 August and 22 September, found that of 13 western or anglophone countries – France, Germany, Sweden, Denmark, Spain, Italy, Greece, Hungary, Poland, the UK, US, Australia and Canada – a “core group” of 10 backed maintaining economic sanctions on Russia. Greece, Hungary and Italy were outliers.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/14/westerners-in-no-mood-for-concessions-to-russia-in-ukraine-poll-finds?
Interesting numbers in that poll …
I don’t know the value of Hungarian answers in these polls. When questions apply to subjects that are nationally under government controlled debate in Hungary, the answers will be fully predictable.
What’s interesting there is that Poland on the other hand might be called an archenemy of Putin.
If you look at those stats you find that a large majority of people in Poland and Sweden maybe don’t trust Putin at all.
And now we’re waiting for the results from Orbanistan.
I just hope that the EU stays strict on these points – no money for Orbanistan!
We can always hope that a general change of attitude will somehow emerge from somewhere within the population, and grow from there.
Hope dies last …
My next comment is on the troubling state of the education system in Hungary
Now we talk about the very basis of trained tought.
If at some point Hungarian school-children will recieve regular teamwork training, for the purpose of learning how to make common decisions based on evaluations of probable outcome/benefit vs cost/risk, then much would change – eventually.