It doesn't seem hard to find a fitting label for the people you mention. How about "Western League For Demolition…
January 15th, 2023
And the beat goes on ... How should we call the partcipants of the CPAC congress happening right now in…
The public display of Trump's "dirty underwear" is a source of entertainment for all who oppose him. But also a…
Maybe he hopes to steal Brussel's cruiser and head out for Atlantis.
I know it is insulting to Asterix the Gaul, but the Viktor thinks he is like Asterix. Viktor Orbán: While…
A small example of the effect of Orban’s klepto-feudal system
(appointed “capitalists”, almost no competition) on the economy.
In Hungary, internet providers are local monopolies at most places.
Orban’s proxy (4iG) took over the large internet provider digi.hu a year ago.
By Orban’s decree, the “competition authority” was not allowed to interfere. The European Union does not care.
(The same thing happened just now, when 4iG purchased vodafone.hu)
1-year price increase of the internet (same speed, no new contract)
2022.01.31 vs 2021.01.31
90.32%
Correction:
2023.01.31 vs 2022.01.31
90.32%
No price cap for Internet providers? With a pop-up window showing this was a decision by the Fidesz government?
And the next rise in Price is sure – tells me my wife.
But a true Fidesznik doesn’t need internet of course, heaven speaks to him directly (in the form of O1G).
Our neighbours all are really extremely angry but I think they haven’t ever voted for Fidesz. So who are those Fidesz voters, especially around Eszterrgom where we live? Are they those catholic believers who do what their priest tells them – without asking or thinking?
This article describes the changing motivation to leave Hungary. The political climate of illiberality, fear, religious dictatorship, discrimination against minorities, etc. seems to get more important over the years.
https://nepszava.hu/3181812_migracio-kivandorlas-magyarorszag-orban-kormany
That nepszava.hu article was very good. It was really an analysis of the postings on https://www.facebook.com/groups/kulfoldimagyarok/. I found it interesting particularly those comments about the increase in cultural intolerance in Fidesz controlled Hungary leading to leaving.
In particular I thought this statement was memorable: “Hungarians hate each other, let alone other nations. Ever since this scum gang has been in charge, racism and hatred have been at their hay day.” (My translation)
Of course we see the same thing in the solidly pro-Trump Republican areas here in the USA too. My wife who is from a Seneca Iroquois Native American family argues that Trump supporters are nothing new, indigenous people have been on the extermination list since the first European settlers landed in North America.
By the way she recommended to me that I read “Indigenous Continent: The Epic Contest for North America” written by a Finn Pekka Hamalainen who my wife a native studies major as an undergraduate thinks is a genius. I tend after reading about 25% of the book to agree with her. See https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pekka_Hämäläinen_(historian).
Thanks, Istvan!
When looking up this historian I found a link to
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comanche_campaign
which clearly shows how horrible the treatment of the Indians was – has to be compared to the way the Nazi Germans (and Hungarians …) treated the Jewish people or the Turks treating the Kurds etc.
I remember staying in Cherokee and visiting the museum with my wife who was horrified.
What I have found most interesting about his book is
how it shows native people resisting by force of arms and by alliances against colonial occupation.
They were hardly wild savages.
Thanks for the link, I will buy the book.
Maybe an interesting article about how careful the FEMA is with translations from forms in native languages.
https://444.hu/2023/01/16/az-on-ferje-jegesmedve-ilyen-es-hasonlo-mondatok-szerepeltek-egy-alaszkai-oslakosoknak-leforditott-hivatalos-iraton
And the atmosphere described in the Népszava article is palpable in Hungary. The most fun place to be confronted with this attitude of respectless and impatient behavior is in a supermarket where people reach over your cart and put themselves in front of you to pick up their stuff.
Századvég is just a Fides front but still it’s astonishing to read what Hungarians think sabout today’s political situation:
https://dailynewshungary.com/government-think-tank-budapest-residents-reject-sanctions/
Most of them are against the EU and its sanctions – but they want the EU money and feel that Hungary is being punished by the EU!
Crazy!
#1 Jan 05. Thesis by D Nirenberg, WSJ
“Prominent European politicians who have cast themselves as opponents of Jewish power include the U.K.’s Jeremy Corbyn on the left and Hungary’s Viktor Orban on the right.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/history-can-be-an-antidote-to-antisemitism-11672930679
#2 Jan 15. Anti-thesis by pro-Orban rabbi T. Rona
Orban “has been supporting the Hungarian and Hungarian-speaking communities across the border”
https://www.facebook.com/tamas.rona.7/posts/pfbid02BwNjFvMFG4n4XeibW5Eku3SPuzGCn78q6nuwGLuV2L3HJdPaSoDV1mNPgKb3qJeMl
quoted in Orban’s daily
https://magyarnemzet.hu/belfold/2023/01/rona-tamas-csodalkozva-olvastam-a-the-wall-street-journal-irasat-amelyben-orban-viktort-antiszemitanak-nevezte
#3 Jan 16. Syn-thesis
Mihály Takaró, an infamous anti-Semite is awarded another medal.
https://444.hu/2023/01/16/a-madach-dijat-kapja-takaro-mihaly-es-l-simon-laszlo
There could be a few discussions with the new Israeli govt. representatives, but probably nothing that can’t be swept under the carpet.
So Telex today ran a story with this title “Zelensky’s adviser resigned because of his statement about the Dnipro missile strike.” Now that adviser is being accused of being a Russian agent by Ukrainian MPs.
The adviser Oleksiy Arestovich said on Monday that the Russian missile was shot down by the Ukrainian air defense and driven into the residential building resulting in many deaths. The Ukrainian military said that was not true.
Arestovich has been on Ukrainian TV constantly since the invasion speaking for Zelensky’s office about the war. He worked in the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and is a reserve lieutenant colonel. Of course the USA is now training about 90 Ukrainians at Ft Sill Oklahoma (where I was trained as an artillery officer while a cadet officer) on the US Patriot missile interceptor system which we plan on sending to Ukraine.
I have no doubt the new Republican majority on the US House of Representatives intelligence committee will question the security of sending even one Patriot air defense system to Ukraine. It’s a mess in the making..
“Republican majority on the US House of Representatives intelligence committee will question the security of sending even one Patriot air defense system to Ukraine.”
Much more security was lost with Trump and in his “declassified” Mar-a-Lago
Re: Arystovich:
“In 2005, Arestovych joined the right-wing Brotherhood (“Братство”) party, which was alleged to have ties with former Ukrainian oligarch Russian proxy Viktor Medvedchuk.
Arestovych reportedly participated in conferences organized by the neo-fascist Eurasian Movement of Aleksandr Dugin, an adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin.”
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/controversial-advisor-arestovych-resigns-after-false-claims-on-dnipro-missile-attack
For a country at war, it seems Ukraine sees very little head-rolling compared to its direct opponent. Of course, If the ex-Trumpists can convince anyone about their ability to evaluate international security issues, or any other international issues, there will be ugly discussions in the House.
They have no shame, Varga and Navracsics are in a hurry to get to Brussels to discuss the Erasmus case. They are two of the Fideszniks sitting on the board of trustees of one of the university foundations for the rest of their lives for Huf 1.5 million a month and are one of the reasons the EU stops paying. They do not seem to understand what the problem is, playing the stupid one so to say.
https://nepszava.hu/3182139_navracsics-brusszel-erasmus-varga-judit-jogallam
Inflation December 2023 vs December 2022.
What is wrong with Hungary?
EU27:
#1 Hungary: 25.0% <—- no euro
#7 Slovakia: 15.0%
#9 Romania: 14.1% <—- neighbor with no euro
#10 Croatia: 12.7%
#13 Slovenia: 10.8%
#15 Austria: 10.5%
EU-27 average 10.4%
Euro zone-19: 9.2%
#25 France: 6.7%
#27 Spain: 5.5%
Outside EU:
Turkey: 64.3%
Serbia: 14.6% <—- neighbor with no euro
US: 6.1%
Switzerland: 2.7%
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/PRC_HICP_MANR/default/table?lang=en
https://www.portfolio.hu/gazdasag/20230118/itt-a-friss-adat-toronymagasan-europa-bajnoka-a-magyar-inflacio-591210
https://24.hu/fn/gazdasag/2023/01/18/eu-inflacio-magyarorszag/
December 2022 vs December 2021
prices up by
89.2%: lard
83.2%: cheese
82.7%: eggs
81.1%: bread
79.4%: butter
70.8%: pasta
51.9%: rice
51.5%: poultry
43.2%: beef
42.3%: fish
41.6%: potato
41.3%: beans
35.8%: fresh vegetables
30.4%: fresh fruits
29.9%: pork
https://www.ksh.hu/stadat_files/ara/hu/ara0041.html
52.1%: milk
KSH:
price of telephone, internet is down by 0.2%.
How is it possible?
In 2022, every internet and telephone provider received the right to raise its prices by the average inflation at least.
They call it “fee correction”, not price raise.
Digi raised its internet price by 90.3% in one year.
In the article below the Orbanized Digi claims not to have raised its price so far – an outrageous lie.
https://24.hu/fn/gazdasag/2023/01/14/telekom-yettel-vodafone-digi-inflaciokoveto-emeles-telefon-internet-dijak/
So I read this article today https://magyarnemzet.hu/belfold/2023/01/fiatalitas-a-magyar-honvedsegnel (translation “Rejuvenation at the Hungarian Armed Forces”) So given this rejuvenation how long does the Minister of National Defense Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky think the Hungarian armed forces by themselves could prevent a Russian invasion coming from the Ukraine from taking Budapest based on a full mobilization?
The Minister of National Defense never contemplated that foundational question nor did Magyar Nemzet pose such a frightening question to him.
Has the Hungarian military even carried out a computerized war game of a direct Russian invasion of Hungary? Has NATO?
Apparently Rand Corp did it for the Baltics see https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1200/RR1253/RAND_RR1253.pdf .
Back when those games were carried out their conclusion was: “Across multiple games using a wide range of expert participants in and out of uniform playing both sides, the longest it has taken Russian forces to reach the outskirts of the Estonian and/or Latvian capitals of Tallinn and Riga, respectively, is 60 hours.”
Now that was before we all realized how incompetent the Russian high command was in their attempt to quickly take Kyiv at the start of the invasion and how determined and heroic the Ukrainian Army was in preserving their national independence. But the Potemkin Hungarian Army would likely be a different question all together.
So called American prepers, those who have what are called bug out bags at the ready to run and hide in the woods with their guns to survive a nuclear war might be good for Hungarians to study prior to a Russian invasion.
But maybe just stockpiling Palinka to get good and drunk prior to the arrival of the Russians in the outskirts of Budapest is a better strategy. I have little doubt team Orban and his loyal TEK are prepared to quickly get him the hell out of Hungary fast.
In my opinion,
if Putin were about to conquer Ukraine, Orban would order the Hungarian army to be allied with the Russian and Serbian armies against Ukraine and Romania (and the US)
Yes, finally back to Greater Hungary!
Even if it were only as a vassal i e a member of the new Eurasian Union.
Much better then staying in the darn EU which won’t give the Fidesz honchos the money they deserve!
But wait, how much does the Beloruss leadership eg get from Putomkin?
Anybody got an idea?
I don’t think Fidesz would be considered part of the high level Russian oligarchy, worth of some yachts and nice places all over the world …
This is so crazy and reminds me of a story our neighbour told us 20 years ago.
In the good old times when there was a Russian military airport near Sármellék Hungarians in the village would sell all kind of stuff to the poor Russian soldiers. One guy was really proud exchanging a can of pálinka for a container of gas.
But when he started his Trabant he heard horrifying noises from the engine and realised that he had gotten jet-fuel …
These articles in the Nemzet are just propaganda, there is no reason to seriously analyze them. Fact-checking is almost impossible because there are no facts in it only vague language and lies.
Have we heard already?
Gáspár Miklós Tamás known as TGM died right now and the leftist Berlin newspaper TAZ has a moving obituary on him:
https://taz.de/Nachruf-auf-Gaspar-Miklos-Tamas/!5908828/
Hungary needs more peole like him!
Yes it’s been all over the news. I must say I had never heard of him. He seemed quite an extraordinary person. I heard him speak French in an interview he gave to French journalists covering Hungary years ago and his command of the language was excellent!
A European Parliament report on the CFSP to be adopted today calls for an independent investigation into whether the conduct and policies of Oliver Varhelyi could breach the Code of Conduct of the members of the European Commission & of their obligations under European Treaties. Dutch MEP Thijs Reuten said that while “in public the Commissioner makes sure that he says what is expected of him, in practice some of his actions are deeply worrying”. The Commission spokeperson denied accusations that Várhelyi was neglecting the central role of the rule of law in the accession states.
Even 11 months after the start of Putin’s war against Ukraine,
the German chancellor is not willing to provide tanks to Ukraine.
[Biden ditto! Biden and Scholz are handing a victory to Putin]
Q: ‘Why are you hesitating on the decision on allowing Leopard 2 tanks to be sent to Ukraine?’
Scholz:
“We want to avoid this becoming a war between Russia and NATO”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lvZdPz1-1uc
Now we have a person at the head of the Defense Ministry (Szalay-Bobrovniczky) who thinks that he has “noble” or Horthy’s “vitéz” ancestry and “privileges”.
Several units of the Hungarian Army have been renamed after people with Horthy’s “vitéz” title
vitéz Bertalan Árpád
vitéz Szentgyörgyi Dezső
vitéz Vattay Antal
https://index.hu/belfold/2023/01/19/magyar-kormany-vitezi-rend-tagok-orban-viktor-kerdes-orszaggyules-vadai-agnes-demokratikus-koalicio/
At the same time, the law promulgated on January 14, 1947 (i.e. before the Communist takeover) is still effective:
‘Noble titles cannot be used’
3. § ‘The usage of the title “vitéz” is forbidden’
https://net.jogtar.hu/jogszabaly?docid=94700004.tv
My guess is that after the re-introduction of the feudal “főispán” title, Orban will bring back the other feudal titles by changing this law.
Next:
Orban started to go to Catholic church, he will declare himself not Protestant but Catholic and appoints himself king.
Well the information about the head of the Defense Ministry is interesting because he will have a seat on the NATO Nuclear Planning Group (NPG) reviews and sets the Alliance’s nuclear policy. The Nuclear Planning Group is chaired by the NATO Secretary General and generally meets at the level of defense ministers.
To be honest over all the USA calls most of the shots relating to NATO and nukes, but it is disturbing this guy might even be at the table where these things are discussed. Especially since the former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, (now deputy chairman of Putin’s powerful security council) warned NATO today that the conventional defeat of Russia in Ukraine could trigger a nuclear war. His direct quote was “The defeat of a nuclear power in a conventional war may trigger a nuclear war. Nuclear powers have never lost major conflicts on which their fate depends,”
Szalay-Bobrovniczky also has (or had) strong Russian business ties, which he did not stop when Putin invaded Ukraine.
https://hvg.hu/360/202212__szalaybobrovniczky__egyiptomi_biznisz__orosz_kapcsolatok__nyilt_palya
The Russian TransMashHolding, TMH sold its share to Szalay-Bobrovniczky’s company Magyar Vagon Zrt last summer.
But
“TMH has retained the design documentation for the railcars, engineering support, operational planning and overall coordination of the project.”
https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/80692/
I never thought I’d have to agree totally with Dora Duro once:
Fidesz kind of forces Hungarians to live unhealthfuly, they don’t do anything to fight those problems like being overweight, eating themselves to death, drinking cheap alcohol and smoking – and don’t even think about sports and training, unless it is watching football of course.
It’s a problem all over the world like in the USA where life expectancy has fallen over the last five years, but Hungary must be the worst country in Europe there.
https://dailynewshungary.com/hungarian-radical-party-urges-comprehensive-health-strategy/
I read most days the Kyiv Independent.This strange story appeared today https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-says-hes-not-sure-putin-still-alive
Apparently Zelensky suggested that the Putin on TV might be something like an avatar effectively an electronic image that represents and may be manipulated by a computer user. This is one of the more bizarre statements President Zelensky has ever made.
Telex also covered the fake Putin story see https://telex.hu/kulfold/2023/01/19/orosz-ukran-haboru-330-nap-hirfolyam-percrol-percre
Placing Putin’s TV images in a VR realm and questioning the reality of his physical prescence, is a hybrid communication strategy that should have an effect on many Russians, especially those involved in media.
It will add to the ongoing discussions and questions about the credibility of the publicized images and the identities of personnel, shown with Putin.
Two articles in the Telex may be relevant regarding the Hungarian army discussion and the propaganda article in the Nemzet here. The propaganda covers up the real things that are happening.
The Viktor now has control of the army by dismissing experienced military personnel and replacing them with his fans.
https://telex.hu/belfold/2023/01/17/honvedelmi-miniszter-katonak-egyoldalu-szolgalati-viszony-megszuntetese-fiatalitas
https://telex.hu/belfold/2023/01/20/honvedelmi-miniszterium-miniszter-katona-honved-vezerkar-szalay-bobrovniczky-kristof-fiatalitas-hadero-szolgalati-viszony
Whatever Nemzet writes, after a brief period it will reveal alone what they want to cover up, (very often within a few days).
This decree is worth analysing, not the Nemzet propaganda, which is just lies, like everything the regime ventilates.
Yes the purge is happening. NATO is fully aware of this and as I indicate above can do nothing under the existing NATO membership rules. My personal recommendation would be for NATO to immediately withdraw from Pápa airbase, and for the US Army to remove its Company-sized Stryker units from Hungary.
Orban no doubt was pressured by Russia over this https://hungarytoday.hu/nato-military-aircraft-papa-airbase-transport-weapon-ukraine-war/ and is carrying out a full purge. Orban is consolidating his dictatorship.
It also looks like there will be a move against Rosatom. See https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/20/rosatom-ukraine-war-effort-sanctions/
An interesting article on the real economic situation (not very good …) in Russia:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/sanctions-russia-are-working?
Russia had doubled its business with Turkey – will the West just watch?
Of course the sanctions have a negative effect.
Orbánistan faces rising difficulties too.
This analysis predicts the costs of being Putin’s friends will rise and peak at a 17% inflation rate, during 2023.
Hungary in 2023: Orban Faces Perfect Storm | Balkan Insight
Meanwhile team Orban is purging the Hungarian military of officers who have advanced training in the USA as quickly as possible See https://telex.hu/belfold/2023/01/20/honvedelmi-miniszterium-miniszter-katona-honved-vezerkar-szalay-bobrovniczky-kristof-fiatalitas-hadero-szolgalati-viszony .
Obviously Orban does not trust them. Some of these officers likely attended the US Army War College called by those of us who are alumni the Carlisle Barracks.
This is a very bad development and I met some of those Hungarian officers at a social event and they all seemed view Russia as a primary threat to Hungarian nation. Such a perspective is no longer acceptable in the Hungarian military.
Since NATO has no formal process to expel Hungary it sits and watches this happen.
The result of the January 20 big NATO discussion at the Rammstein base:
Germany does not permit Leopard 2 tanks to be used by Ukraine.
(and Biden will not be sending the Abrams tanks either)
This is while Russians are again taking more Ukrainian territory on the
eastern (immediate aim: Chasiv Yar, Bakhmut) and even on the
southern front (their aim is to take the town of Orikhiv , then Zaporozhie).
Inventory of Leopard 2 tanks in Europe:
Germany: 521
Greece: 353
Spain: 327
Turkey: 316
Poland: 247
Finland: 200
Switzerland: 134
Sweden: 120
Canada: 82
Austria: 56
Norway: 52
Denmark: 44
Portugal: 37
Hungary: 12 (+ 44 on order)
Source: Guardian.co.uk
Hope I am wrong, but I predict the Russians will take large territories in the East in the coming weeks.
I think Scholz (and Biden) just handed the victory to Putin by demoralizing the Ukrainian troops.
Hope I am wrong, but I predict the Russians will take large territories in the East in the coming weeks.
I think Scholz (and Biden) just handed the victory to Putin by demoralizing the Ukrainian troops.
“There is confusion and frustration among military sources I have spoken to over why the Biden administration can’t just hand over a few tanks to unlock the German impasse and to up the Ukrainian numbers if only by a handful.
The criticism is that the Americans are consistently providing only enough weapons to sustain the war, but not enough to bring it to an end with a Ukrainian victory.”
https://news.sky.com/story/a-new-russian-offensive-appears-to-be-imminent-thats-why-ukraine-says-it-needs-as-many-tanks-as-possible-12790706
As a German I feel terribly ashamed that the German government isn’t willing and ready to give more help to Ukraine!
Sometimes I feel that the Putin-a**lickers are still active, people like former chancellor Schröder eg (I’m not so sure about Mrs Merkel).
Maybe they have stuff on current chancellor Scholz etc from his “distinguished” career as a local politician where he often cooperated with shady banks etc?
As the latest corruption case in the European Parliament shows we shouldn’t expect too much from our politicians.
That’s a continuous development starting in Germany with Adenauer, Strauß and going on with Brandt etc.
I can’t eat as much as I want to throw up!
And the fact that most of these politicians call(ed) themselves christians …
Was Brandt also corrupt ? That is new to me. Details?
Sorry, that should have been Kohl!
Willy Brandt was just human – met him in Berlin when he was still mayor.
Brandt was just an alcoholic, a womanizer and in a way responsible for the biggest spy scandal of his assistant Günter Guillaume which cost him his job.
The people in Debrecen are very angry at the Orban government for setting up a new, Chinese battery factory in town.
The reason is the expected pollution of their water source.
(see the Samsung factory in Göd)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FrrCjXx_dwg
https://telex.hu/belfold/2023/01/20/debrecen-catl-akkumulatorgyar-kozmeghallgatas
Good to hear that people in Debrecen aren’t completely tone-deaf regarding poisoned habitat. Perhaps they would have been more willing to accept the Chinese university?
Orbánistan’s growing desperation for foreign capital investment looks more and more like a cheap sell out to the autocratic capital interests.
They know now that Rosatom will get the red light from the EU.
“Fitch Revises Hungary’s Outlook to Negative; Affirms at ‘BBB’ ”
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-revises-hungary-outlook-to-negative-affirms-at-bbb-20-01-2023
This is the headline of index.hu (the site was seized by the Orban regime in 2020):
“Fitch ratings recommends Hungary for investment”
https://index.hu/gazdasag/2023/01/20/fitch-ratings-besorolas-magyarorszag-penzugyminiszterium/
The Fitch rating didn´t change, the outlook was changed to negative. negative.
https://hvg.hu/gazdasag/20230120_fitch_ratings_hitelminosites
#1
“Hungary is also looking to remove [from the EU sanctions list]
Alisher Usmanov,
Usmanov’s sister, Gulbahor Ismailova,
Pyotr Aven,
Aven’s business partner, Mikhail Fridman;
Belarusian-Russian oligarch Dmitry Mazepin;
his son Nikita Mazepin;
Russian oligarchs
Grygory Berezkin and
Viatcheslav Moshe Kantor.”
https://www.rferl.org/a/hungary-eu-sanctions-list-russia-ukraine/32227730.html
#2
Italian authorities are on the hunt for a Russian oligarch [Mazepin] after two of his luxury yachts that were seized under EU sanctions mysteriously disappeared from a port in Sardinia.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/20/italy-seeks-dmitry-mazepin-russian-oligarch-seized-yachts-disappeared-sardinia
#3
US Ambassador to Hungary Pressman:
How does protecting Russian oligarchs from sanctions serve Hungary and Hungarians?
https://twitter.com/USAmbHungary/status/1616435078007033858
Going back to Wolfi’s comment about disappointment over Germany blocking the transfer of the Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. The basic idea of sending this armor to Ukraine is for the Ukrainian Army to make a breakthrough around the current trench warfare that is a mass slaughter.
The German popular opposition to allowing the tanks to be sent to Ukraine is based on a legitimate fear of nuclear war. In August 2022 the opinion research institute Kantar Public on behalf of the Korber Foundation showed that 80 percent of Germans fear a spillover of the war from Ukraine to neighboring NATO countries and 69 percent fear a Russian nuclear strike.
Der Spiegel on Friday had an article indicating the Ukrainian forces defending Bakhmut are taking casualties in the multiple hundreds everyday and they can’t sustain that too long. The Russians are likely taking even larger casualties as an attacking force always does. But just in terms of the number of infantry casualties the Russians can take is much higher than the Ukrainians can sustain over time.
Of course I had one experience with mass slaughter of North Vietnamese troops, very possibly 10,000 dead, at the Battle of An Loc from South Vietnamese artillery that I helped target and US Air Force carpet bombing. That kind of warfare is with you forever,
My problem with this armored thrust breakthrough theory with German high tech tanks spearheading the assault is the possibility of a tactical nuclear attack on that vanguard by the Russians. Overall the US military and intelligence agencies play down that risk in the US media.
I well recall transferring to NATO duty from Vietnam in late 1972 being briefed on the Fulda Gap because it offered one of the two obvious routes for a hypothetical Soviet tank attack on West Germany from Eastern Europe (especially from East Germany ).
I was an artillery officer and I learned that we planned on using nuclear artillery shells as part of our strategy to halt any initial Soviet tank assault. I learned the procedure for arming the nuclear warhead on a 155 mm shell. It was very sobering. Those shells never came out of their bunkers fortunately for humanity.
Back then this was all top secret and I told no one until the 1990s when it became declassified, but while in West Germany by inferences I learned about the nuclear recoilless gun/tactical launcher Davy Crockett, Special Atomic Demolition Munitions, and an outline of plans for nuclear air assault in the gap too.
I am very fearful the Russians have similar plans to destroy an armored thrust by Ukraine. I do recognize the logic of NATO generals in that Russia will win a long war of attrition and subjugate Ukraine or what is left of it. But I am deeply worried about escalation scenarios. I understand the fears of people over this, it’s all deeply unnerving. I want Ukraine to survive, but I don’t want a nuclear war either I guess.
Istvan, you are right as usual re the almost unthinkable horror of “tactical” nuclear weapons.
But imho someone who gives the commands to use these in an attack must be totally crazy!
And that goes not only for Putin but all his generals.
The scenario for me is a return to the 1960s when I was involved there too – but on a hypothetical level, never believing we’d get this far.
You on the other hand have real experiences there – horrible just to think about it!
And without strong forces defending Ukraine and Putin’s success we are just preparing for the next invasion. So I’m sure that the Baltic states look at this differently from the German politicians – which I don’t understand anyway.
We should never forget Hitler’s activities!
Regarding the blocking of tank transfers, the German government is too divided to make a clear decision and Scholtz doesn’t dare to challenge the conservative wing of the SPD on this. The foreign minister is for allowing transfers, but defense minister Pistorius is against it. The latter is also suspected of being strongly influenced by long and intimate Russian ties, as well as a close friendship with Schröder.
I’m not so sure re the defense minister Pistorius – it might be chancellor Scholz who wants to keep some “friendship” with Russia.
Also interesting here:
Mrs Baerbock, Green (!!!) foreign minister seems to be clearly on the Ukrainian side. She probably knows that Germany’s image is going down the drain.
The SPD’s behaviour is really abominable and the number of Germans who would vote for them is less than 20% with around 20% Greens and 30% CSU.
Doesn’t look good for the Social Democrats.
I just hope the pressure of the other strong EU nations (not Hungary of course) will show them the right way.
There will be no peace until Russians leave the Ukraine!
PS:
A survey by well known clara von civey says that more than two thirds of German think that chancellor Scholz is not a “strong leader”.
He has to do something or his party will go down even more.
That doesn’t look good for the Kansler.
Speaking of the potential for the use of tactical nukes by Russia, today Russian State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin actually posted on his Telegram Channel not so much a threat to do so but a justification for doing so.
Volodin went to the weapons now being debated in Germany concluding: “Arguments that the nuclear powers have not previously used weapons of mass destruction in local conflicts are untenable. Because these states did not face a situation where there was a threat to the security of their citizens and the territorial integrity of the country.” (My translation from https://t.me/s/vv_volodin/597)
Based the existing Russian nuclear doctrine a first strike by Russian forces should only be done if Russia itself faced what is called a direct attack and then preemptive use of nuclear weapons could be authorized. The Russian Duma voted to illegally annex parts of Ukraine where the additional armor being provided by NATO nations and of course the USA would see combat.
This actually sounds like part of a draft of a legislative document approving Putin launching nukes.
We also know from this Washington Post article
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/20/russia-moscow-air-defenses-ukraine Russian air defenses are being added to central Moscow that are apparent to citizens.
Really none of this is good news.
So instead of publicly evaluating on choosing nuclear scenarios, pre and post, people in Russia are being groomed to accept that there is no choice?
I think that is a fair assessment of the Russian propaganda policy.
Maybe it’s a covert admission too that on the level of convention warfare with Western aid the Ukrainians have beaten them badly.
The truth is both Russia and the USA were defeated in conventional wars in Afghanistan. The US was also beaten in Vietnam over the long run to. But many of my fellow veterans from that war do not agree.
Imperial ambitions are dangerous things look too at our own Hungarian history of Horthy blocking with Hitler to regain territory and the end result.
A somewhat dated map.
The Russians probably have broken through the Ukrainian line southwest of Bakhmut, and are approaching Chasiv Yar, thus closing in to cut the only remaining supply road of the Ukrainian troops in Bakhmut.
There is a danger that the Ukrainian front line could collapse near Chasiv Yar.
Jan 22 article:
https://kyivindependent.com/national/with-the-loss-of-soledar-ukrainian-positions-in-bakhmut-jeopardized
This article actual speaks to the horror of infantry combat going now https://www.euronews.com/2023/01/21/as-nato-countries-dither-over-tanks-ukraines-soldiers-shiver-in-trenches-under-constant-fi
The new Ukrainian tanks hoped for by a Ukrainian infantryman in this article will likely not end this slaughter any time fast. This type of close combat is horrible and I experienced it in 1972.
The North Vietnamese had 48 tanks (in 2 battalions) and broke our lines during a night attack on April 13 going into April 14, 1972. They attacked again on April 15 in the early evening and did not break our lines that time. At least 4,000 of the communists were killed over three days of combat.
The south Vietnamese artillery crews I was advising were firing at zero elevation literally blowing Russian made tanks to pieces. South Vietnamese forces under their 5th Division commander, General Hung, ordered tank-destroying teams be formed by each battalion and they used US M72 LAW (light anti-tank weapons) to destroy over a dozen tanks. All total we destroyed 40 of the 44 Russian tanks.
We took over 400 casualties in that part of the battle. Tanks can be defeated by infantry but at a high cost. South Vietnamese forces gunned down all the communist tanker crews trying to escape burning tanks. I was lucky not to have been killed and was only lightly wounded. Enough to get a Purple Heart medal but not enough to be helicoptered out to Saigon..
orbanization := forcible nationalization, followed by privatization to Orban’s friends or his family (especially his son-in-law Tiborcz)
Orban now wants to orbanize the profitable spas and swimming pools of Budapest and other local governments.
Tiborcz already obtained hotel Gellert in two steps, now he wants the Budapes-owned Gellert spa as well.
Dagaly spa was orbanized a few years ago. The beneficiaries-in-waiting are the family of Russian oligarch Rahimkulov (who happens to have a house in Orban’s home village too….)
https://telex.hu/gazdasag/2023/01/24/meglepo-kormanyzati-terv-az-allam-megszerezne-a-legjobb-magyar-furdoket
https://nepszava.hu/3181402_lang-negyed-rahimkulov-tarsashaz-beruhazas-angyalfold
https://nepszava.hu/3162759_rahimkulov-orosz-milliardos-tarsashaz-angyalfold-epitesi-engedely
https://nepszava.hu/3178618_szemelyre-szabott-alkotmany
News on January 25, 2023:
Tiborcz sold two Austrian hotels (Alpenblick & Kreischberg) to a company owned by Rahimkulov.
https://hvg.hu/gazdasag/20230124_BDPST_Zrt_Tiborcz_Istvan_Orban_Viktor_veje_Ausztria_hotel_Peters_Consulting_Kft_Zentai_Peter
Correction:
News on January 24, 2023:
Schadl is (still) the head of the Hungarian state organization that confiscates and auctions debtors’ assets on the cheap. He was arrested in November 2021.
He is in pre-trial detention for bribing, or ratther sharing profits with (now former) assistant secretary Volner.
The prosecutor’s office has destroyed (!) the kompromat Schadl kept in his safe about other people in case he would be charged.
They say it was just 2 porn DVDs and photos, and they are not relevant for the case.
In a conversation taped by the secret services, Schadl mentioned justice minister Varga‘s as well as propaganda minister Rogan‘s name. Orban appointed Rogan to oversee the secret services last April 2022, after the scandal started.
https://rtl.hu/belfold/2023/01/24/schadl-gyorgy-pancelszekreny-megsemmisites
https://www.blikk.hu/aktualis/krimi/schadl-volner-ugy-hivatali-vesztegetes-penzmosas-nyomozas-lehallgatas-hanganyagok/ccxev0m
https://www.blikk.hu/politika/magyar-politika/schadl-gyorgy-volner-pal-lehallgatott-hivasok-hanganyagok-korrupcio-botrany/6jwfv0v
Good news – though maybe not for Putomkin and his a**lickers in Fidesz and some other EU parties:
Germany will send tanks to Ukraine and of course allow Poland to send theirs too.
It took a lot of time for chancellor Scholz – but better late than never!
Let us hope the Russians do not panic and unleash tactical nukes on the new Ukrainian armored regiment reportedly being organized for spring offensives. I doubt if many of the entrenched Russian infantry and associated Wagner group criminals have ever faced a full tank assault.
My own experience with a tank assault in Vietnam was the difficulty in maintaining order and discipline in a context of immense fear. In my situation the Vietnamese troops I was advising literally had no option but to fight because we were fully surrounded. I could see young Russians faced with monstrous tanks firing even shooting out smoke breaking.
Rumors in the US media are that on top of the German made tanks the USA will provide up to 100 Abrams M1 tanks.
If the Russian lines break and they are forced to retreat back to Russia’s internationally recognized border Putin’s own rule is in question so the use of tactical nukes becomes much more possible.
Germany offered 14 tanks out of 521 Leopard 2’s it has in its inventory.
Greece: 0 out of 353
Turkey: 0 out of 316
Hungary: 0 out of 12
Spain: 20-50 (??) out of 327
Poland: 14 out of 247
Finland: 14 out of 200
Sweden: 10-12 (??) out of 120
Norway: 8 out 52
Denmark: 6 out of 44
Portugal 4 out of 37
Source:
number of tanks to be handed over to Ukraine:
https://www.portfolio.hu/global/20230125/itt-a-teljes-lista-ezek-az-orszagok-terveznek-harckocsikat-kuldeni-ukrajnaba-592736
source of the “out of” number:
guardian.co.uk
Another study where Hungary is showing its undemocratic characteristics:
https://www.indexoncensorship.org/indexindex/
Media freedom and academic freedom in Hungary is among the worst – not only in the EU but worldwide.
Long live Fidesz censorship!
My wife just returned from shopping – angry as hell!
Several points:
Everything (mainly food) has become so expensive – and when I told her that Hungarian prices were 30% higher than prices in Poland eg …
Since we no longer use a car we have to wait until her son and his family visit us (maybe next weekend) to go shopping across the Danube. Prices are also lower in Slovakia (only 10 km away …) and there is more stuff available – and we’ll also see about gas prices.
And then we brought some leftovers to the poor dog just across the street. I’ve written about this before:
His owner died more than 2 years ago, the children don’t want the dog so the poor animal has been living alone in the garden of the empty house. Once a week the “owners” come and bring some dry food and if he’s lucky he also gets fresh water to drink.
So he’s barking and yowling all day and night, being disappointed and going crazy when someone walks by the house. Only when we or one of the other friendly neighbours who also feed him some leftovers come to say hello he gets really friendly and is happy for a moment.
The other side of the empty house:
people walking by just throw their garbage/trash on the pedestrian walkway – from pálinká bottles and empty cans ro hundreds of little plastic bags. Even children do it because their parents obviously don’t care.
And don’t even think about the thousands of cigarette butts and empty packages …
When I said there are a lot of Hungarians around who behave like pigs she answered:
Don’t insult the pigs!
Is it Fidesz or who has been turning Hungary into a shithole country? Not 50 but more than 100 years behind civilised Europe.
End of rant …
Istvan,
It is 2:35 PM Central European time (January 25)
This website is blocked in Hungary if one uses a regular browser.
Gas delivery to Hungary through the various pipelines.
Balazs Orban, “political director” of Viktor Orban (not related):
‘If you rule the media of the country, then you rule the thinking of the country, therefore you rule the country itself’
https://444.hu/2023/01/25/orban-balazs-aki-uralja-egy-orszag-mediajat-az-uralja-az-orszag-gondolkodasat-es-azon-keresztul-az-orszagot-is
Viktor Orban just changed his mind. In the past, he proudly rejected the loan part (as opposed to the grant part) of the EU “recovery plan”,
saying he can get loans from the open market, he does not need the EU loan.
He just instructed minister Navracsics to get the [cheap] EU loans.
https://24.hu/belfold/2023/01/25/helyreallitasi-alap-navracsics-lantos-energia-hitelkomponens/
Hungary can get 9.6 billion euros in EU loans.
EUR/HUF
2022,01.17 high: 401.25
2022.01.25 low: 387.20, down 3.5%
Vodafone.hu was taken over by Orban’s oligarch this month.
2023.01 / 2022.12 bill (exactly the same service): up 19.1%.
of which the monthly mobile telephone internet fee is up by 82.7%.
2023.02 / 2022.12 bill: up by 50.3%
I find the very limited response to the coming movement of advanced western tanks to Ukraine by media controlled by Fidesz to be interesting. Basically this article just puts out the line from Moscow https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2023/01/kreml-minden-amit-a-nyugat-tesz-azt-a-konfliktusba-valo-kozvetlen-reszvetelnek-tekintjuk
Possibly Orban does not want to frighten the population, but Russia weeks ago indicated it would dramatically increase missile attacks on likely transit points coming into Ukraine.
There no doubt will be increased Russian monitoring of the Hungarian transit points for possible double dealing by Orban. Part of any Russian strategy has to include intercepting as many of these tanks as possible prior to their full transition to the Ukrainian Army and combat. I assume NATO will inform Orban about the nothing relating to these shipments.
If anything, communication between Nato and Hungary will be strategic, detailed misinformation.
At this point, Hungarian Nato-staff must be considered fully compromised and only useful for purposes of misinformation and subsequent tracking of the signs of communication with the Russians.
This puts Orbán in the dark. He won’t know who to trust, at all.
Yes on top of all of your legitimate points Orban is trying to purge the Hungarian military of its most experienced NATO trained officers using a change in retirement standards that Jan posted about. I am sure Putin is enough of a KGB man to not trust Orban even on the weapons transfer pledge so their spies are no doubt watching every thing.
Orban has put himself in a somewhat dangerous position. Putin is now constantly under attack indirectly on various Telegram channels by retired Soviet era officers in particular. At least what I have read in translation indicates they write is a very odd way as if Putin is responsible for nothing and the military industrial complex as it exists needs to be taken control of by him. I think they know well enough that is a smoke screen for criticism of Putin. The fact hat Putin’s media monitoring is allowing these posts to continue is a topic of some confusion amongst some Russian opposition figures as to what the hell is going on, I am sure the CIA and Western intelligence agencies are thinking about all of this.
But wouldn’t such a confusing media scenario fit both Russian and Hungarian policies of double-talk and misinformation?
I would argue that this Telex article (https://telex.hu/kulfold/2023/01/25/nemetorszag-ukrajna-lengyelorszag-olaf-scholz-leopard-m1-abrams-harckocsi-tank-pancelozott-harcjarmu-offenziva-allohaboru) is in many ways better than anything I read on the more complex issues relating to NATO countries providing advance main battle tanks to Ukraine than anything I have read in the US media. Both the Washington Post and the NY Times see it from a very US based perspective this article looks at it more from a dynamic interaction between Germany and Poland.
The Telex article does discuss the very legitimate concerns of Germany over an expansion of the war leading to NATO involvement. But it never directly mentions the possibility of tactical nuclear weapons being used against the new Ukrainian armored regiment that the US is advising them on based on our doctrine of combined arms warfare (see this for a simple explanation of the concept https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combined_arms#:~:text=Combined%20Arms%20is%20an%20approach%20to%20warfare%20which,supports%20the%20other%2C%20or%20both%20support%20each%20other%29.) The US armed forces have been using the combined arms doctrine now since the year 2000 when this was published http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/jel/new_pubs/jp1.pdf .
The chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff General Milley has made it very clear that the Ukrainians will eventually be defeated by Russia if they continue to fight trench warfare and play into the Russian war of attrition they decided on after they own shock and awe campaign to take Kyiv turned out to be a disaster. So this entire effort of transformation includes building a totally new regiment for offensive actions designed to break the current situation and it carries with it big risks.
General Milley by the way is a very intelligent officer who has a bachelor’s degree in political science from Princeton University, General Milley has a master’s degree in international relations from Columbia University and one from the U.S. Naval War College in national security and strategic studies. He is also a graduate of the MIT Seminar XXI National Security Studies Program. I have actually attended several lectures given by him at the US Army War College using remote access and he has a very deep grasp of history and diplomacy. He was also a critical factor in the securing of the US capitol following the January 6th insurrection even though he was appointed by Trump, he made the analogy to European coups and even to Hitler’s failed beerhall putsch to commanders of US National Guard forces in preparing them correctly for a possible civil war situation. He is a post Vietnam era officer of a generation after myself but a am an admirer of him to be honest.
The Germans have lenghty and very frank discussions about their involvement, going on since the Russian invasion, and although it’s difficult for them to obtain the broad popular support that most other Nato partners rely on, there is general recognition of participating as part of the large coalition, but not suggesting anything which could be seen as an escalation.
The tanks are a sensitive issue, mainly for two reasons. The end-user approval is a decision with little possibility of controlling the consequenses, once lightened. Some of the Nato armies have units that are highly skilled and combat experienced with the Leopard, they could bring the Ukrainian combat efficiency to a different level, and the approval also opens a back door for a commercial export by the manufacturer to a country engaged in an armed conflict.
Re: tanks
Putin has a two-month window to occupy as much territory as possible to the east of Dniepr.
There will be daily propaganda-desk victories of the most creative and entertaining sorts, in the Russian media.
A retired Red Army Col named Mikhail Khodaryonok saw it the same way in an article today. The Russians will have to stop their attacks to prepare for the Ukrainian spring offensive.
Russian combat engineers have been digging in in depth for weeks now. Obviously the plan is to absorb the Ukrainian assault by inflicting casualties and falling back a few hundred meters. But Putin is so crazy he may try to order a stand your ground defense at some point which would lead to disaster for his forces. To be honest the Russian graduates of the Tyumen Higher Military Engineering Command School are every bit as good as the US Army engineering program at West Point.
West Point’s greatest engineering graduate was Robert E Lee who engineered he defenses of Richmond Virginia against General Grant massively larger Union forces with a huge artillery force for a full year. The smaller Confederate force slaughtered union regiment after regiment assaulting Lee’s defenses.
Lee used massive amounts of slave labor to build those defenses and rebuild constantly from artillery damage. The number of those poor slaves killed is unknown but it is known they were chained often while laboring. Similar to the situation of the Jewish work brigades used by Horthy during WW2.
Here is a summary of the Viktors meeting with some foreign journalists.
This clearly is an admirer. The craziness continues, predictions about the declining west, the Russian victory, the EU as a reason for all the terrible things happening etc.
It clearly shows how Isolated this man is amongst Nato and EU leaders. And he is proud of it.
If the other journalists wrote similar pieces, this was a good propaganda event for the Viktor.
Viktor Orban: West Is ‘In A War With Russia’ – The American Conservative
Who would believe such a pathetic, ass-licking portrait? Hardly anyone in control of their senses.
While the reality is, that Orbán is a political “French Clown”-entrée (in the democratic sense) on the international arena, who relies on paranoid control, illusions and lying for claiming successes, but doesn’t really know which leg to stand on or who to trust – the ultimate fate of most compulsive liars – he vainly fancies dreams of exporting his fantasies to the American Right.
Yes, it is all craziness, but he got it printed.
Sure. It might even boost his inflated ego for a moment.
Wonderful!
This year’s CPAC will again happen in Budapest so all the extreme right wingers (dare I say fascists?) from USA and other places will meet.
Maybe they should invite George Santos for entertainment?
My impression is that the shock troops of the right in the USA I.e. the armed militia movement think CPAC is a bunch of talkers not real fighters. Those are the real fascists here in the USA. Here is a story discussing the armed movement close to my wife and my rural Wisconsin home in Clark and Jackson counties Wisconsin, also elsewhere in Wisconsin.
Most native Americans living near us are heavily armed out of legitimate fear of these militias. My wife and I keep moderately heav weapons up there too including a semiautomatic AK 47 which is legal in Wisconsin. Even some county police officers up there have relations with those armed groups which are not illegal.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/11/america-new-civil-war This is the link
My wife and her sister organized and paid for a group of Native Americans from that area to travel to anti-oil pipe line protests in North Dakota which was on TV. It opens the door to a militia attack on her. We watch the forest carefully for militia just in case to be honest.
Just finished reading this – took me some time to manage all this crazy stuff.
The author Rod Dreher seems really a christian fascist to me – like we had them in West Germany in the 1950s/50s.
Of course not one word on who started this war …
And many factual mistakes – does he really not know that O1G was prime minister once before in 1998 – 2002?
Orban would like to see Hungary outside the EU.
Orban at a conference in one his privatized-orbanized publicly funded institution:
Original article in theamericanconservative.com
“Someone asked the prime minister if he wanted Hungary to stay in the EU. “Definitely not!” he said, adding that Hungary has no choice, because 85 percent of its exports are within the EU.”
https://web.archive.org/web/20230126214025/https://www.theamericanconservative.com/viktor-orban-we-are-in-a-war-with-russia/
Politically correct, second version:
“Orban said that it is painful for him personally to have Hungary in the EU, subject to its bullying, but there is no question that Hungary will remain in the EU, because its economic prosperity depends on it. Still, it is tough to take being pushed around from the EU leadership. Orban’s point is that as difficult as it is personally to have to deal with the EU bureaucracy, it has to be done, because it is in Hungary’s national interest.”
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/viktor-orban-we-are-in-a-war-with-russia/
In both versions:
“Russia’s goal is to make Ukraine an ungovernable wreck, so the West cannot claim it as a prize. At this, they have already succeeded. “It’s Afghanistan now,” he said. “The land of nobody.” (Meaning: No Man’s Land.)
The West doesn’t understand that time is on Russia’s side in Ukraine. Russia is a huge country, and can mobilize a vast army. Ukraine is already running out of troops. When that happens, then what?
“We are in big, big trouble,” he said, of the West. If Russia’s coming spring offensive proves successful, then the NATO countries are going to be faced with the question of do we send in soldiers to fight for Ukraine?”
Original version:
“We are in a war with Russia. That’s the reality,” he said.
Politically corrected, second version:
The West is “in a war with Russia. That’s the reality,” he said.
Orban is totally wrong that the west does not understand time is on the side of Russia. US chairman of the joint chiefs of staff General Milley has reflected on that and has made public comments on the Ukrainians making an error in fighting on Putin’s terms of a war of attrition in trenches.
The transfer of the German and eventually US tanks are part of a strategy to begin to create a Ukrainian armored division based on the NATO strategy of combined arms combat that even the better Hungarian officers have been trained in some of whom are being purged currently by Orban using new retirement rules.
Here is the approximate estimates I have seen for a new armored division 296 tanks, 230 infantry fighting vehicles, 54 self-propelled artillery systems, over 2,000 regular vehicles, and almost 12,000 soldiers and officers.
It is assumed that this Ukrainian armored division thrown against entrenched Russian forces this spring would take at least 1,800 casualties that would need to be replaced with trained reserves and equipment including more tanks relatively fast if there is going to be a breakthrough of significance even one of the fronts of Lugansk, Donetsk, or Zaporozhye.
In both versions:
A journalist asked the prime minister if he thought the war could go nuclear. “I can’t exclude that they would use it,” he said, of the atomic bomb. He clarified that he was talking about tactical battlefield nukes, not mushroom clouds over Warsaw and Berlin — “but I can’t exclude that either.” If Ukraine somehow, using Western weapons, gets to the point of crossing the border into Russian territory, then the future of the world will be so bright the West will have to wear shades.
[…]
“Though Ukraine has had some amazing successes against Russia, Orban said in the long term, he can’t see that we in the West are on the winning side, especially considering Russia’s manufacturing capacity.”
[…]
“Someone raised the possibility of a coup d’état in Russia that removed Putin. Orban reacted strongly, saying that there is nobody in line to succeed Putin who would be anything but more hawkish. That would solve nothing.“
Orban is correct on the possible use of tactical nukes by Russia. He is wrong about that only being a possibility if Ukrainians crossed the internationally accepted borders of the Russian Federation. It would be a Russian tactical decision based on the speed of an advance by Ukrainian forces in an offensive. Russian forces would retreat and tactical nuclear assaults would commence.
During the Cold War while I was in Europe in the Army we had plans to use nuclear artillery shells for our 155mm (the W48 was the US Army’s nuclear artillery shell photo below), howitzers. We had calculated the distances we needed to retreat to have a chance of survival from the blasts. But of course not from eventual death from the fallout if we did not get to protected shelters.
The officers understood about our limited survival chances, we only talked to the enlisted artillery men about the retreat from the blast, not eventual radiation poisoning. Sometimes it’s better for soldiers to not known the entire situation. Maybe some figured it out.
Would Putin care if Russian troops got radiation poisoning?
For some of the more trained troops maybe so, for criminals from Wagner I doubt it.
I’ve written about this before.
When I became a maths&physics student in 1962 I participated in the German civil defence,cooperating with NATO, calculating the effects of these tactical nukes on West German cities eg.
Horrible!
Especially when I learned later that the radiation limits we had used were way too high and would have brought death numbers of 10 – 25% for the people involved.
And the concept that everybody would find room in a shelter for several days was also impossible to realize …
Sometimes I wish I had taken one of those radioactivity slide rules home – but it was just too crazy and I was happy when I left.
Has Orban converted to Russian Orthodox?
“The best hope today is the Orthodox,” he said. “They are not arguing, but believing. We [Protestants and Catholics] are arguing all the time.”
Orban went on to call Orthodox Christians “the most important reserve” for Christians in the West to regain their religious footing.
Does Orban know that most Ukrainians are also Orthodox? By now, they are Ukrainian Orthodox, and not Russian Orthodox of course
Orban, the “peacock dancer” proudly shows Pest below from the balcony of his chancellery, the former dance theater.
[The building was a theater between 1787 and 2016.
The regime calls it Carmelite monastery, although it served as such only between 1763 and 1784. The propaganda implies that Orban is like a monk….]
I went around the Castle District when we were in Bp for the holidays. The amount of surveillance cameras around Orbán’s compound is crazy. And most buildings in the area are being completely rebuilt (in concrete but matching the style of the 19th century originals).
I think he called the author to make some changes
🙂
What’s the idea behind devoting so much attention to “American Conservative” ???
Everybody here are bored to death with the “peacock” bullshit.
What’s the idea behind speaking on behalf of everybody here?
I got carried away for a moment.
No offense intended and I apologize if it spoiled your appetite.
hey, no problem, we all make mistakes!
So this article appeared in Ukraine https://www.ostro.org/ru/news/vo-pervyh-suchya-rozha-nychya-zemlya-ne-u-nas-a-u-vas-mer-dnepra-otvetyl-orbanu-i403340 (title translates to “Firstly, bitch face, “no man’s land” is not with us, but with you.” The mayor of Dnipro replied to Orban) This article discussed the Mayor of Dnipro Mayor Boris Filatov’s response to Orban’s comment that Ukraine had been reduced to a waste land the other day.
On his Telegram channel he wrote a scathing response to Orban which received coverage in Hungary: It translates to something like this from Ukrainian: “Orban. In Russian. Politically incorrect. Firstly, a bitch face (also translatable as slutface),” no one’s land “, not with us, but with you. We have lived here for thousands of years, and we have not pinned ourselves because of the Urals. Secondly, one must be especially gifted, that you were hated everywhere: from Romania with Slovakia to Serbia with Ukraine.The Treaty of Trianon is, after all, a punishment for historical bestiality.Thirdly, your atrocities and constant desire to please the tyrants in every world war have made you historical pariahs.Fourthly, you must to be perfect bastards in order to forgive the Soviets and their heirs in 1956. Fifth, you have to be the ultimate moral freaks in order to sit “under the umbrella” of the European Union and NATO and twist the barrels of everyone. Get out from under the “umbrella”, and we, you, bl @ dey, we will take out in three days.” Telex did an article about it too https://telex.hu/kulfold/2023/01/28/dnyipro-orban-polgarmester.
This statement by Boris Filatov played into the hands of Orban because it also characterized Magyars as remnants of an asiatic invasion, while it admits that from a Ukrainian perspective the treaty of Trianon is justified because Hungarian’s are beasts that are hated in Romania, Slovakia, and Serbia or where ever there are populations of Hungarian speakers. I am sure once Orban read this he said to himself this is good, we can further incite nationalist sentiment with this statement. Boris Filatov tried at the end of his statement to separate the Fidesz leadership from the mass of Hungarians, but there was clearly a tone of fraud to the attempt.
My grandfather and great uncle used to speak to me as a young child of a “river of blood” between Hungarians and many neighboring countries, be careful here (in the USA) you will have many that will pretend to be just Americans, but they are taught to hate us by their families. Of course both of them were old soldiers of the Empire who helped harshly to put down various revolts against the Empire in particular in the Balkans before they got on a boat and came over here. If one follows the adventures of their military units in the Balkan wars it is pretty clear war crimes were committed. As my nagyapa azt mondta, meglátod. Welcome to the insanity of Central European nationalism. By the way I agree with the Mayor about Orban hiding behind NATO’s nuclear umbrella and about the disgrace of lining up with Russia given the history of 1956
Now this essay https://merce.hu/2023/01/26/borzaszto-a-mai-tarsadalomban-megoregedni-az-idoskor-ujragondolasa/ which is in the leftwing journal Merce is actually very good. Maybe it relies too heavily on Simone de Beauvoir, but there are great truths in the essay. It is about aging and Hungarian society. My wife who is partially native American (Seneca who were the largest of six Native American nations which comprised the Iroquois Confederacy or Six Nations who call themselves Haudenosaunee) by ancestrally, and more so by culture has a very different perspective on aging. It is in part discussed in this Merce article, as is how the importance of the elders is destroyed by modern culture. I gave a translated copy of this essay to my wife and she was impressed.
My wife sees the issue of aging and life extending health care as a complex issue within Seneca culture. The Senecas and all Iroquois were highly skilled at warfare, and were rightly considered fierce adversaries by other tribes and white settlers. The women played a big role in this warrior culture, not in combat but in integrating war captives into the tribe. In fact my wife has no clear idea if her ancestors were from other tribes who were spared from the knife because they became Seneca. She worries about her sister who is several years older than her going into a state of what could be called preparation for death. Iroquois society is based on matrilineal clans so my wife like all Seneca women are especially important. The Feast to the Dead (Chanters for the Dead) is held annually or semiannually. This is a ceremony for the dead of the entire village and is conducted by a special society of women (called Towii’sas). It is an all-night ceremony which begins with a tobacco invocation to the dead, followed by special songs and dances. My wife has attended these ceremonies on the reservation in New York and obviously I am not invited.
Since there is a belief among the Seneca that the dead are among the living during these rituals and that they return to their former homes to eat food, food offerings are left for them. So simply put they see death as a process not a sudden ending. My wife family was Christian and there is a merger of believes, and practices. The Iroquois accept death as a normal part of the life process, but there are huge debates about modern medicine extending that life beyond what is useful. That concept does not exist in the essay I gave her from Merce, she said white people are fearful of death even if christian because death is seen as something to be resisted and not accepted when the time comes.
This is a link to an interview with Balázs Jarábik who was the political director of the EU security mission as a Slovak diplomat posted in Kyiv. He is now a researcher at the Institute of Human Sciences (IWM) in Vienna. His perspective on the US role in the current war in Ukraine is pretty unique he considers this in part a proxy war between the USA and Russia, but more complex than that really. Its a long interview that translates well using google https://www.szabadeuropa.hu/a/a-proxy-haboru-meghatarozas-nem-teljesen-tulzo-jarabik-balazs-az-eu-biztonsagi-missziojanak-volt-politikai-igazgatoja/32227006.html .
Fidesz is very disappointed. In Czechia right now former NATO general Petr Pavel was elected president with a clear majority of 57% – 70% of people went to vote, not bad.
Orbán’s and Putin’s friend Babiš lost …
Pavel also said that “we” must help Ukraine against Russia.
If you miss our HS trolls (ok, I may sound a bit perverse) you can find some of them on dailynewshungary like here:
https://dailynewshungary.com/leading-hungarian-politician-is-in-kyiv/
Remember Mariavontheresa? Almost as funny as zoli …
Czech President-elect Petr Pavel plans to visit Ukraine together with Slovak President Zuzana Caputova, reported Czech TV channel CT24 on Jan. 28.
Then Hun Fidesz honchos will visit Moscow instead?
They are going to see Zelensky’s big purge? The Ukrainians are investigating the civilian governmental apparatus in mass and there are so many forced resignations taking place they are issuing news alerts in English see https://nabu.gov.ua/en
Most of those under investigation are from Zelensky’s own Servant of the people party. Clearly Zelensky is in a big hurry because of the coming Republican investigations in the USA over possible theft of US funding for the war effort.
The situation relating to corruption has been made public by journalists from “Ukrainska Pravda.” The outlet, according what I have been reading is largely controlled by the team of former president Pyotr Poroshenko.
Poroshenko very clearly wants to directly link all of these corruption revelations to Zelensky to promote his return to power. Of course Poroshenko is a crook too.
Orban has carried out periodic anti-corruption purges but never to characters closely linked to him or his key allies. I read in translation most days Ukrainska Pravda and the Kyiv Independent. Most of the stories of corruption never make the western media just like 444’s investigations in Hungary don’t either.
Zelensky is in way over his head now as somebody with largely an entertainment background, hopefully he is clean. But carrying out purges in the middle of a war is difficult. Since the Czech Republic and Slovak governments have a history of institutional corruption how Zelensky purges will be of interest to the leaders of both countries. (https://balkaninsight.com/2019/08/28/mafia-state-slovakia-struggles-to-root-out-corruption/ and https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021/index/cze).
Well, Hungary is much worse on the corruption index.
Hungarians (at least the people I know) would be really happy if they just reached the level of the other V4.
But as long as Fidesz is in power …
We already heard about the crazy way the Hun government sent several hundred officers home. Our dear Eva would surely have reported on this in detail on HS.
I just heard that there is a total chaos in the Hun military – nobody to decide, nobody to sign orders, nobody to say what materials they should get where …
Just waiting to run out of foodstuff and what else.
How and by whom are things like this decided here in no man’s land – or was it Afghanistan?
Yes Jan saw this story and posted on it, then I did too Wolfi. Orban needed to purge the Hungarian officer corp because in my opinion some officers are loyal to NATO particularly some who have gone to graduate school at a place like the US Army War College.
Many American Hungarian military veterans here in the USA embraced these former Warsaw Pact officers even inviting them to our homes. Particularly in the Cleveland Ohio area. We thought they were the future of a democratic Hungary. I even met one Hungarian officer who had served as part of the ISAF mission in Afghanistan seeing combat in Baghlan Province. He was advising and training the Afghan National Army (ANA) when their base was attacked by the Taliban.
I did similar service in 1971 and 1972 in Vietnam with South Vietnamese forces and my own daughter who is still in the US Army Reserve served in Afghanistan too.
Most American Hungarians, even us Army veterans are not aware of this purge going on in the Hungarian military because it has not been covered in the media in the USA. I sent the Telex article that Jan posted about the purge under the cover of reform to an American Hungarian veteran. He wrote me back are you sure Telex isn’t exaggerating this? They did support the opposition after all,
This article https://honvedelem.hu/hirek/szalay-bobrovniczky-kristof-a-magyar-hadero-harckeszsegenek-a-legjobbnak-kell-lennie.html on the website of the Hungarian military frames the purge this way “In order to increase the combat readiness of the Hungarian armed forces, it is inevitable that younger officers and non-commissioned officers are placed in leadership.”
Sure, but first they have to be trained, get information on what’s happening and so on …
My source says that the younger officers and ncos just have no leader experience and don’t know what to do – without the old professionals helping.
It’s crazy!
And those who got thrown out obviously aren’t too motivated to help their successors …
Crazy?
Smells like typical Orbánistan logic. I think we look at preparations for some kind of theatrical declaration of neutrality.
Whatever the outcome will be, a new feather in the peacock-tail will soon be flashed.
We don´t know yet what the purpose is of this move. My guess is that we won´t see big declarations, he wants to make the army loyal to him in case there are trouble of whatever kind. On the streets, after losing an election, fill in what you want. Almost all institutions in Hungary are filled with people loyal to the Viktor. This is a big asset for the Viktor.
My coffee grounds tell me that a Hungarian military high command, specifically incompatible with participation in Nato joint action forces, is currently at the top of Putin’s wish list.
If domestic concerns were ever to become a real threat, all the the mini-Lukashenko needs to do is to forbid protesting.
All true what you write, let´s wait for the things to happen.
10 Historical Divination Methods for Predicting the Future | Mental Floss
Seems Ms. Lovejoy is quite the expert!
Telex reports on foreign minister Szijartó’s discussion with the Russians on Paks2 – in 8 years (or maybe longer?) Hungary will have nuclear energy to sell – maybe.
https://telex.hu/english/2023/01/26/szijjarto-agrees-with-russian-deputy-pm-about-speeding-up-nuclear-plant-investment-in-hungary
Only the stupid EU, especially Germany, wants to get rid of the cleanest environment friendly energy (end of sarcasm …)!
PS:
What is he doing in New York right now?
Unfortunately this Fidesz propaganda story https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2023/01/m1-hirado-gyakorlatilag-embervadaszat-zajlik-karpataljan about Hungarian speakers in Transcarpathia being rounded up by the Ukrainian Army for a renewed draft effort probably has elements of truth to it. The possibility of Ukraine losing this war simply based on running out of bodies was raised in a Rand Corp report issued this month titled “Avoiding a Long War U.S. Policy and the Trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict” (https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html).
But problem with Fidesz pro-Russian propaganda can be seen in this highlighted statement from the Magyar Nemzet article: “According to experts, the conscription proves that the Ukrainian military leadership is in deep trouble, and that the loss of life may be much higher than what is officially acknowledged.” But that is also true for the Russians which of course this article does not acknowledge.
The US military leadership has made references to far higher casualties than either the Russians or Ukrainians will admit. We have entered the situation of total war that was in a speech delivered by Goebbels in 1943. The Russians plan on drafting another 500,000 men, so it should not be surprising Zelensky’s security services are hunting down Hungarians in the border areas for military service. One reason why the issue of getting armor to the Ukrainians as fast as possible to support an offensive is the current trench warfare fighting for meter after meter can’t be sustained indefinitely by Ukraine due to their much smaller population and strategic breakthroughs are imperative.
Great news again – Hungary first!
Following Transparency International Hungary is the most corrupt country in the EU.
Last year Hungary was second – now Orbanistan made it to the top, congratulations!
https://telex.hu/english/2023/01/31/transparency-international-hungary-is-the-most-corrupt-country-in-the-eu
The government’s answer is fantastic:
It’s all a lie, everybody involved is part of the Soros network like Transparency International, the European Commission, the European Parliament …
The list could go on.
Yes within the context of the EU Hungary’s public sector corruption is profound. But the US’s neighbor Mexico makes Hungary look like paradise in comparison.
For example Genaro García Luna, who ran the Mexican analogue of the US FBI in the early 2000s before being named the country’s secretary of public security in 2006 is now on trial in New York City for allegedly taking millions from the powerful Sinaloa drug cartel and its then ally, the Beltrán Leyva cartel, so the criminal organizations could traffic tons of cocaine into the United States.
He was visiting the USA when he was arrested, the Mexican government refused to even try and put him on trial because they knew their own judges were intimidated of the drug cartels.
Drug lord Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, the Mexican Sinaloa cartel leader, was convicted in 2019 of 10 criminal counts, including narcotics trafficking and money laundering conspiracy, after a three-month trial. He got life in prison.
El Chapo’s son was attested in Culiacan Mexico after a battle in which at least least 10 Mexican military personnel and 19 suspected members of the Sinaloa drug cartel were killed in early January.
The younger El Chapo was to be extradited to the USA for trial but so far Mexican judges have blocked extradition. (See https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/06/americas/el-chapo-son-arrest-mexico-prison-intl/index.html).
I would suggest that the Hungarian Army might be defeated in open combat with the armed formations of the Mexican drug gangs which effectively rule some cities in Mexico now.
So corruption is relative I guess. Having been down by the Mexican border just a few weeks ago in Tucson Arizona it was obvious that the US Border Patrol was a massive presence down there. Even with a war going on in neighboring Ukraine the militarization of that border is less than ours is with Mexico.
The Fidesz government is really crazy!
Walking by our local bus stop we saw two big billboards exclaiming:
97% are against sanctions!!!
So why don’t you leave he horrible EU which is fighting a war against Putin’s friend O1G?
As Germans we would be happy to have the good old times again when everything at the Balaton and in Budapest was so cheap …
And we would save those billions of € that the Hun government is expecting from the EU to finance their luxury life.
PS:
We also can use a hundred thousand qualified workers …