Well I don’t know if Kyiv is going to fall tomorrow, but it is obvious there is a lack of…
November 1, 2024 – Election month
US presidential election:
[Trump – Harris] right now:
NV= -0.1%
PA= +0.4%
WI= -0.8%
MI= -1.1%
NC= +1.3%
GA= +1.8%
AZ= +2.1%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast
If this is a good approximation of the final result, then
Trump – Harris = 281 – 257, Trump wins.
But if Harris flips Pennsylvania, then
Trump – Harris = 262 – 276, Harris wins.
Voila, the “Council of Judges” (OBT) has already submitted to Orban's "reorganization" by the afternoon. https://obt-jud.hu/sites/default/files/ulesek/Osszefoglalo_2024.11.20.pdf
Putin's spokesman, Peskov: "Freezing the conflict in Ukraine [along the existing frontlines] is UNACCEPTABLE for Russia, it is important for…
According to the 2015 contract, Russia would build the the Paks-2 atomic power plant for 12.5 billion euros, from start…
Current US situation: https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/commercial-backyard-flocks
In Hungary, the pool of “eligible voters” is not fool proof by Orban’s design (think of the Transylvanian, Serbian, etc voters)
In the US, it is not fool proof because of the lax state & federal laws.
The federal registration form asks whether you are a citizen, but you do not have to prove it. (although it is a felony if you lie).
https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/eac_assets/1/6/Federal_Voter_Registration_ENG.pdf
When you vote in person on election day,
you do not have to show any ID in 15 states,
you do not have to show a photo ID in another 11 states,
you have to show your photo ID only in 24 states,
(but you do not have to be a citizen to have a driver’s license)
For instance, in Pennsylvania or Nevada, you do not have to show any ID to vote.
https://ballotpedia.org/Voter_identification_laws_by_state#Details_by_state
———————
Arguments against a measure to oblige people to prove citizenship are weak in my opinion:
casting ballots with only their drivers’ license, REAL or military ID, and a passport or birth certificate “would be an extreme burden for countless Americans, including military voters, Native voters, people who have changed their names (including tens of millions of American women), the elderly, the young, the poor, and naturalized citizens,” said the House minority whip.
https://news.yahoo.com/news/voters-required-show-proof-citizenship-001320732.html
https://www.npr.org/2024/06/11/nx-s1-4991903/voter-registration-proof-of-citizenship-requirement
It’s getting crazier and crazier …
There was or still is a meeting of Putin lovers in Vienna right now.
Some of the participants:
Austrian FPÖ (Fascist Putin lovers in Austria)
Former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder
The boss of the Swiss right win g Putin-adoringnewspaper “Weltwoche”
And of course:
Orbán Viktor
Are the Hun media reporting on this?
Here more info on the meeting of the Putin populistas:
https://kurier.at/politik/inland/orban-wien-weltwoche-rosenkranz-schroeder-koeppel/402969747
I can’t eat as much as I want to throw up!
The Hungarian budget is in ruins, but government still had $100 million for the “Organization of Turkic States”
https://hvg.hu/itthon/20241101_turk-befektetesi-alap-magyarorszag-nagy-marton-ebx
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organization_of_Turkic_States
All of Orban’s friends are dictators
Turkish North Cyprus is also a friend.
The Hungarian word for tyrant, “zsarnok” comes from the verb “zsarolni” = to blackmail.
Overall the fear of the Democrats relating to proving eligibility to vote in Federal elections is delusional I think. Because the base of the Maga Trump movement is composed of a good number of financially marginalized whites whose own documentation is questionable. The real ID is opposed by many Trump supporters on the basis that it is part of a “deep state” plot to get biometric data for everyone that could make a round up of Maga supporters easier. Really very few Maga supporters seem to have passports either which is also a secure legal document.
Striking people from the voter registration lists can work both ways.
Illinois which will go for Harris where I am registered to vote. Wisconsin is now a far more complex picture.
My wife and I have friends who are active campaigners for Harris in normally heavily Republican Central rural Wisconsin and they are optimistic the Trump victory margin will be reduced in their areas. We shall see in a week.
The funny thing is that Maga supporters who worry about a deep state take over are often, like my self military veterans.
Which means most likely their DNA data is part of their military records. When I told this to some Trump supporters they seemed not to believe me. One said all they have is my blood type, I laughed at him. In fact now soldiers even get iris scanned and of course that data is retained. It’s part of the biometric data base of modern soldiers.
My bank accounts are even linked to facial identification records, what world these Trump supporters are in is beyond me.
“My bank accounts are even linked to facial identification records,”
Be careful, dear Istvan of Chicago ! 🙂
See the Fantomas movies, e.g
this one from 19 minute 40 second:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqwmD5mN7gE
or at 45:00
Banks here have repeatedly been breached. Supposedly the deposits are automatically insured to at least $250,000 at each FDIC-insured bank, Inclusive of hacking.
Basically over here you keep bank deposits below the maximum insured level. But there are even dangers relating to money invested in bonds and US Treasury notes.
Nothing really is fully secure. Many of us have gotten credit surveillance systems that have eyes on our accounts 24 hours a day 7 days a week.
I check my FICO score once a month. It is still 825. 🙂
The fear of the white men can become true. Not because immigrants are in the majority, but women. Outvoted white supremacists, racists, and nationalists is a dream of every democrat.
Hajra Our Women!!!
And here’s the next winner: Maia Sandu
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/03/moldovans-vote-in-presidential-runoff-amid-claims-of-russian-interference
PS: come on tappanch VOTE for A Woman!
Dear Istvan of Chicago,
Whom will you vote for on Tuesday?
In 2020, I cast my vote for Biden into a box at the US embassy in Budapest.
This time, I decided not to vote.
My son just told me: ‘Dad, you taught me that we always have to choose between bad and worse, and vote. And now you contradict yourself” 🙁
You honestly cannot decide between Trump and Harris?
That is a shock for me.
Second round of the presidential election in Moldova.
2173/2219 precincts reporting
Maia Sandu (pro-European): 54.35% (883,921 votes)
Alexandr Stoian-oglo (pro-Russian): 43.65% (742,451 votes)
BUT
ballots cast inside Moldova
Sandu: 660,226 (48.81%)
Stoian-oglo: 692,533 (51.19%)
Ballots from outside Moldova:
Sandu: 81.76% (223,695)
Stoian-oglo: 18.24% (49,918)
Găgăuzia: Stoian-oglo 97.04%
https://pv.cec.md/cec-presidential-results-tour2.html
Final result:
2219/2219 precincts reporting
Maia Sandu (pro-European): 55.33% (929,964 votes)
Alexandr Stoian-oglo (pro-Russian): 44.67% (750,644 votes)
BUT
ballots cast inside Moldova
Sandu: 658,395 (48.67%)
Stoian-oglo: 694,362 (51.33%)
(yes, 1829 votes were moved from Sandu’s to Stoian-oglu’s column)
Ballots from outside Moldova:
Sandu: 82.92% (271,843)
Stoian-oglo: 17.08% (56,008)
x-Soviet Georgia result (3110 out of 3111 precincts)
pro-Russian ruling party: 53.932% (1,120,011 votes) 89 out 150 seat in Parliament
of which
#1 electronic precincts: 2256
pro-Russian ruling party: 53.049% (958,486 votes)
therefore
#2 paper precincts: 854 out of 855 precincts tabulated
pro-Russian ruling party: 59.841% (161,525 votes)
https://results.cec.gov.ge/#/en-us/election_57/tr/dashboard
US presidential election:
[Trump – Harris] right now:
NV= -0.1% —> -0.3%
PA= +0.4% —-> +0.4%
WI= -0.8% —–> -0.7%
MI= -1.1% ——> -0.8%
NC= +1.3% ——> +1.6%
GA= +1.8% ——-> +1.7%
AZ= +2.1% ——–> +2.5%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast
If this is a good approximation of the final result, then
Trump – Harris = 281 – 257, Trump wins.
But if Harris flips Pennsylvania, then
Trump – Harris = 262 – 276, Harris wins.
betting “probability” on polymarket right now:
NV: Trump 63%
PA: Trump 57%
WI: Harris 58%
MI: Harris 60%
NC: Trump 66%
GA: Trump 66%
AZ: Trump 77%
https://polymarket.com/elections
Orban’s almost 10 years old Ermächtigungsgesetz was again extended today.
Originally introduced in 2016 during the big
Middle East —-> Turkey ——> Germany+Sweden
migration,
its extension was justified by Orban first with the CoVid-19 pandemic, then with the Russia-Ukraine war.
https://24.hu/belfold/2024/11/04/rendeleti-kormanyzas-haborus-veszelyhelyzet-orszaggyules/
O1G did already congratulate Trump???
Wrote this to my US friends:
It doesn’t look good …
Putin’s honchos have already been drinking lots of Vodka and Krim champagne.
Now we’ll really be living in interesting times.
PS:
The Chinese rulers must also be happy – but maybe not if Trump really raises taxes for foreign products?
It was obvious that Trump would win by midnight Eastern time in the USA. The coward Harris did not even address her supporters, but sent a low level operative to tell her gathered supporters to go home because the votes were being counted.
Of course by then she knew she lost, early this morning US time all the news services declared Trump the winner.
Since I had sent in comments to Hungarian news from Central Wisconsin about the election up there here was what happened.
I went to bed and of course woke up to Trump being elected.. My poor wife Judy was devastated last night when by about 11 PM it became clear Harris lost.
I will give the Democrats up in central Wisconsin credit. In our little town of Greenwood Harris managed to get out of 603 votes cast 208 votes or 34.5%. Trump got 61.8% of the vote.
So his vote total declined from his last election from 68.2%. I thought the local Democrats would probably do better, but they were wildly optimistic and were telling me just weeks ago Trump’s victory up there would be reduced to about 55% of the votes cast.
I read the Washington Post this morning just after Trump became the consensus winner by all major media projections. I read this article https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/06/trump-election-win-analysis/.
I posted on the subscribers comment section the following:
Dan Balz never of course never answered the original question that was posed in the story’s title “Trump triumphed. But will his presidency be as dark as his campaign?” That is typical for him. The answer is in my opinion it will be yes, it will be every bit as dark as his campaign.
He will without question begin as soon as possible start rounding up undocumented people and expelling them. It will require a massive mobilization of Federal policing resources to attempt do what he has promised to do. It also may involve litigation and he will likely have the backing of the Supreme Court.
I doubt team Trump can maintain a prolonged expulsion effort that will be required to really make it result in a significant percentage decline in undocumented people living and working without permits in the USA. But he will put on a good optically driven campaign.
That’s enough about the USA, obviously this is a great victory for Orban and likely Ukraine could be forced into a very unfavorable ceasefire agreement. I would be interested in your thoughts about how this will impact Hungary.
Orban’s great victory with his good friend Trump https://magyarnemzet.hu/belfold/2024/11/orban-viktor-elarulta-mit-gondol-az-amerikai-valasztas-eredmenyerol I especially liked this Orban quote: “We have several plans that we can implement with President Donald Trump in the coming years.”
Could one plan be returning Transcarpathia or at least part of it to Hungary? After all Orban stuck with Trump when times were tough, doesn’t he deserve a reward?
“The coward Harris did not even address her supporters, but sent a low level operative to tell her gathered supporters to go home because the votes were being counted.”
That is exactly the language we need and will hear from your president for four more years.
Harris will speak later today.
She did I watched her, and people were crying. But that night she was so stunned she could not even tell her electoral workers it was over.
Trump seized the opportunity and declared victory at 4 am EST.
The news services declared Trump the winner shortly thereafter. Harris was thrown into the election when Biden was literally forced out due to many cognitive issues and Harris was thrown into the race on a very short time frame.
Really President Biden by holding out to keep running destroyed the Democrats chances and Harris defeat was profound even losing a big chunk of Hispanic voters. Who are turning against the low wage undocumented workers crossing the borders.
It’s all rather amazing.
Did you make the effort to listen to Harris?
No cowardness.
As I said above I did, with my wife who was in tears the whole time. As were many in the audience.
People are crying because Trump is a master con artist and they know what is coming. Harris said she hopes Trump won’t impose dark times on America, but only hours before that she was calling Trump a fascist.
He will without question seek revenge. He is not a nice guy.
I agree
There can be little doubt about the fascist nature of Trump’s political basis.
Disregarding objective reality and bartering to religious fanatics and speculative entrepreneurs in the derailing conspiracy business on the internet, it all adds up to fascism.
The really big Question – What sort of ideas might Trump, an exclusive, anti-social club member from birth be able to agree on, with his peers on the dictatorial side of global politics?
Orbán. the Russian voice in EU, talks as he is instructed.
But he doesn’t quite understand the extent of European resources, when it comes to war against Russia in Ukraine and Russia.
The destruction can go on for decades.
US presidential election:
[Trump – Harris]
Average of last polls ===> actual votes
NV= -0.3% ===> + 4.5% (93% of votes counted)
PA= +0.4% ===> + 2.5%
WI= -0.7% ===> + 1.0%
MI= -0.8% ===> + 2.2%
NC= +1.6% ===> + 3.3%
GA= +1.7% ===> + 2.3%
AZ= +2.5% ===> + 4.7% (only 62% of the votes counted)
What is especially horrible that all of the federal “checks and balances” have been erased.
Supreme Court, House, Senate.
Every vote counts.
Looks a lot like Hungary
it (the Uphu#$!&*SA) will become a big version on of Hungary…edgy nagy magyarorszag! Read project 2025 … it’s all there
Ambassador Pressman might be the first “victim” of the new Trump/Orbán love affair.
I wonder how this will go on …
He knows his days as US Ambassador in HU are counted, he might as well say what he (and everybody else) thinks.
He’s obviously not afraid of O1G and said it clearly:
https://dailynewshungary.com/fidesz-strongman-sends-home-us-pressman/
Well he is not a Hungarian national nor a long standing employee of the State Department. Being not afraid of Orban or Trump is definitely easier for him.
Well he has supported the rights of transgender people so he obviously has to go without question. Trump is obsessed with transgender people.
Average [not median!] annual full-time “adjusted” [gross] salary for employees in euros
#27 Bulgaria 13,500
#26 Hungary 16,900
#25 Greece (surprise) 17,000
#24 Romania 17,700
Spain 32,600
France 42,700
[Netherlands is missing from the series]
#5 Austria 54,500
#4 Belgium 58,000
#3 Ireland 58,700
#2 Denmark 67,700
#1 Luxembourg 81,900
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/nama_10_fte__custom_13597179/bookmark/table?lang=en&bookmarkId=c29eed24-377e-4763-aaf0-0419906d2ecd
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20241107-1
Roughly:
Increasing real median income = happiness = no change
decreasing income = unhappiness = change of presidential party
You can see from the series of the St Louis Fed that there were 3 “good” seven to eight-year periods in the US when the “Real Median Personal Income” were increasing:
1981-1989 (Regan)
1992-2000 (Clinton)
2012-2019 (Obama II, first half of Trump)
There was stagnation under Carter, Bush Sr, Bush Jr, Obama I, last year of Trump and Biden.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N
Survival economy is often far from general statistics, how else could poor people survive?
But now prices have a level far beyond median income and “people” struggle to get by.
so a majory of the voters in some United States prefered to have a todler as their lidur…
well I would like to say this:
This World is Your World, and this World is My World
from New Caledonia till Margitsziget
From the Amazon Forest to the Arctic Waters
Our Earth is here for You and Me!!!
Furthermore:
God Bless the American Continent,
its surroundings,
and…
the United Kindergartens of the land where only $$$ count…
I suspect those US citizens, including myself, who opposed Trump’s election, will have very little influence in the next few years. Even our more influential newspapers that opposed Trump will have virtually no influence. Americans needed to understand the evolution of Hungary to see what is likely coming here.
We are in many respects a very parochial society with fairly limited foreign language skills beyond Spanish. Trump appears to be implementing the Project 2025 blueprint for governance (https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf).
Trump will have a functional majority in Congress and most likely in the US Supreme Court. So this basic strategy can be implemented relatively rapidly.
“Trump will have a functional majority”
Yep, and the todler is selecting disfunctional helpers, like
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-expected-select-rfk-jr-lead-hhs-politico-reports-2024-11-14/
OK a Banana Repblic it will not become [probably/hopefully], but suggestions for a better name are welcome…
Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-New York) to be U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and I suspect Hungary and the USA will be on the same side on many votes in the future. Her father is ethnically Czech and her mother is of Italian ancestry. She was born into a Catholic family and was so Baptized and confirmed.
So Hungary can choose now:
Who will be our friend and mentor?
China or the USA?
And of course the EU is our enemy – but we want the money!
Right now the official media are full of news about the Euro downfall against the Dollar.
But the HUF is up to 410 – 412 against the €.
Our family, friends and beighbours all ask us to get them Euros, good that I don’t have to pay the bank for exchange.
Too much speculation fills the Trump-void.
Important is what Europe agrees on.
Orban my guess is will stick with Trump. Trump is very hostile to China. But he is also circumspect about Taiwan which is the most likely flash point of war.
My daughter is a close friend of a U.S. Air Force officer whose family is originally from Taiwan and he too is very worried about Trump actually defending his ancestral homeland if the PLA invades.
The fact that active duty officers are discussing their concerns about Trump at all even to family and friends is amazing really. Once Trump becomes formally commander in chief that will all stop, it would be under the Code of military justice “insubordination.”
The vast majority of US military veterans voted for President elect Trump and I suspect the same applies to active duty service members. But even those service members who supported Trump are shocked (https://www.militarytimes.com/pentagon/2024/11/13/trumps-defense-choice-a-fox-news-host-stuns-the-pentagon/) by Trump’s selection Sec of Defense. Who is a Fox TV News host Pete Hegseth who was a U.S. Army National Guard Major and was commissioned after training in a college ROTC program just like myself. He saw combat in the Middle East was was cited for merit with several medals.
Most American are unaware that the Sec of Defense is the only possible check on the power of the President to launch a nuclear attack on any foreign nation. But Sec of Defense doesn’t have veto power over a launch, the defense secretary is required to verify the order but cannot veto it. The secretary can delay the order but can also be removed by the President for that delay and temporarily appoint anyone with a sufficient security clearance to verify the launch. NATO has no real veto authority over an U.S. nuclear launch.
Hegseth has been very critical of what he calls “Woke” Generals and has called on TV for the chairman of the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff ( Air Force Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr.) to be removed. Hegseth has denounced General Brown, who is African American as being a supporter of diversity, equity and inclusion programs in the military and must be removed.
This could create racial strife within the Officer Corps of all services.
Looking at all appointments of the orange man, we will have a team of incompetence.
The Republican party will follow Trump whatever the cost for the US.
It is just insane.
The choice of Defense-Secretary does have a touch of propaganda priority to it.
Also, it might just be that Trump is inspired by events during his time away from power, and realized the power of randomly rattling the nuclear saber. God forbid.
Donald Trump announced former congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, a Democrat who left the party and later became a Republican, as his director of national intelligence. She is a U.S. Army Reserve Lt Colonel. she was deployed to the Horn of Africa working as a Civil Affairs officer in support of an undisclosed Special Operations mission.
She is currently I would argue the leading Republican publicly opposing US military support for Ukraine. A Politico article ( https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/04/the-gops-new-russia-friendly-campaign-trail-buddy-tulsi-gabbard-00065024) went so far as to imply she might be a Putin operative. But there is no clear evidence she is compromised and apparently still has a security clearance.
Tulsi Gabbard is a possible Russian agent, and Trump nominated her to be the US “Director of National Intelligence” !!! Incredible!. this shows that Trump is still beholden to Putin.
https://www.newsweek.com/tulsi-gabbard-being-used-russians-former-us-double-agent-evidence-clear-opinion-1466750
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/01/politics/tulsi-gabbard-cpac-ukraine-russia/index.html.
Rep Gaetz, who did not accept the result of the 2020 election result is nominated to become Attorney General !!
In addition, Trump wants to circumvent the US Constitution
Article II, Section 2, Clause 2
“and [the President] shall nominate, and by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, shall appoint Ambassadors, other public Ministers and Consuls, Judges of the supreme Court, and all other Officers of the United States, whose Appointments are not herein otherwise provided for, and which shall be established by Law: but the Congress may by Law vest the Appointment of such inferior Officers, as they think proper, in the President alone, in the Courts of Law, or in the Heads of Departments.”
How the solid blue states react will be a good indication of where that closet stands.
Really the number of “solid blue states” are far and few between. Illinois where I am a registered voter is one supposedly but even here Trump got a significant vote. Even in Chicago see (https://blockclubchicago.org/2024/11/06/trump-attracted-more-voters-than-ever-in-chicago-amid-overall-victory/ ). Of course in deep southern Illinois, where there was some limited legal slavery inherited from French colonialism right up to the Civil War Republicans and far right Democrats
always ran well. (See https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_slavery_in_Illinois).
So the lunatics have taken charge of the asylum ….
Well as I have always been honest about the fact that I was a liberal Republican for most of my life. (See https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rockefeller_Republican) Most members of the officer corp in the USA have been Republicans going back to the Cold War.
Nixon began my turn away from the party because of his surrender of South Vietnam to the Communist Party of Vietnam. At that point I more or less became a so called independent. Nixon like Trump was likely mentally ill.
My youngest daughter who is still a Reserve US Army Lt Colonel is deeply disturbed by the proposed Sec of Defense along with a purge of high ranking officers who support racial/ sexual equity in the Army and keeps talking about resigning. I keep urging her to secure her full pension and benefits which will only require about 6 more years of Reserve duty. I literally pray she doesn’t get killed because of my advice. My hope is Trump’s isolationism will keep the US out of ground combat for the next 4 years.
and here’s one of the released asylum residents, planned to lead the Department of Health and Human Services
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-expected-select-rfk-jr-lead-hhs-politico-reports-2024-11-14/
oh,boy, oh girl, how will this end…
This Washington Post article https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/13/trump-matt-gaetz-ag-gabbard/ today argued some Republicans in the US Senate may not back Trump’s more controversial appointments.
I think this is a very optimistic perspective, because Trump is giving them an easy escape pathway by use of the so called recess appointment provision in the US Constitution that Tappanch correctly noted. Tulsi Gabbard holds the same tank in the Army Reserves as my daughter and is like my daughter a Civil Affairs officer.
Lt Colonel Gabbard Is like my daughter a phenomenal athlete and is a superb big wave suffer. My daughter and Gabbard likely have the same security clearances. So I am circumspect about her being a Putin operative.
This article about Lt Col Gabbard
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/11/13/tulsi-gabbard-syria-assad/ appeared too a short while ago.