Well I don’t know if Kyiv is going to fall tomorrow, but it is obvious there is a lack of…
Will Hungarians Pay in Euro or Ruble?
Yes, with this question Péter Jakab described the decision we will take on April 3rd ►HU. Of course the ruble will not be introduced when Orbán wins, but it very well describes the fact that we will decide for a direction: returning to be part of Europe or to become a vassal of Russia. Hours after the FIDESZ delegation in European Parliament voted in favour of a motion that suggests banning the planned nuclear power plant Paks 2 through sanctions several Hungarian ministers and the PM insisted on keeping this plan alive. A plan financed through a bank that can’t finance anything within the EU any more regarding the EU sanctions. At least not legally or as long as Hungary is member of the EU. Árpád W. Tóta stated that he is quite sure that Orbán is already preparing to undermine the sanctions against Putin ►HU.
Yesterday Georgia formally applied for a as fast as possible EU membership ►EN, Moldova, just a few hours later, declared to apply for EU membership as well ►EN. The same day FIDESZ voted away a suggestion of the opposition to amend the Hungarian basic law making a referendum compulsory in case Hungary would leave EU or NATO ►HU. These memberships are based on international treaties and according to the actual situation a referendum on treaties, no matter whether to enter, change, or end a treaty, is explicitly forbidden through a clause in this very basic law. Since the basic law is “carved in stone” it mustn’t be changed except by FIDESZ – it is in force since 2012 through FIDESZ decision only and was changed 9 times when FIDESZ thought the carving had been done badly, latest addition is “father is a man, mother is a woman.” One could say as well only the important things of FIDESZ propaganda are regulated in this basic law, to enable the state functioning in the interest of the people is definitely not the aim of this “constitution.” After all Orbán told the EU a few weeks ago that his demands must be fulfilled if he is expected to keep Hungary on the European road it is a serious threat that Orbán will leave the EU as soon as funds are no longer available for robbing.
Besides this clear threat to leave EU Orbán yesterday delivered an interview with the regime press that completely repeats Russian propaganda, as NATO enlargements would be against the interest of Russia, and nobody would respect the security interests of Russia ►HU. Since NATO and Russia have agreed on mechanisms to communicate and to solve problems it is already hard to believe that such a suggestions is really meant seriously. But we might remember as well that Putin in this context also ordered all countries that joined NATO after the treaty between NATO and Russia of 1997 to leave NATO again, this includes Hungary. Already on January 26th I covered the missing reaction of Orbán ►EN and now Orbán confirms the non-existing rights of Putin to tell sovereign states whether they may join an alliance or not – including the country he is PM of.
And this morning Orbán continued his EU bashing as well. In his Friday prayer on state radio he told the people that the EU would not help Hungary with the refugees. This is a brutal lie, the EU has released half a billion Euro for humanitarian help. This is besides direct help for those within Ukraine aimed for the countries that are assisting refugees. Greedy Orbán of course can’t accept that Poland will get more than Hungary, since most refugees went there. Fact is as well that 26 EU member states decided to participate in helping Ukraine through its Civil Protection Mechanism and sending goods to Ukraine. Just Hungary opted out and declared to send goods directly to Transcarpathia. And only in this context Hungary won’t get money from Brussels in form of a participation in transportation costs. Again Orbán doesn’t want to participate and blames the EU for his own decision ►HU.
In this context the newest polls on thoughts of Hungarians are interesting. 60 % of Hungarians think that Orbán moved us too close to Russia, 58 % blame Putin for the war. Both questions show a higher percentage among the higher educated Hungarians. Generally people want to stay neutral (72 %) and only those with a degree are in majority (55 %) for siding with Ukraine. Siding with Russia is very unpopular, from a maximum among those who only visited compulsory school and those with vocational training only 3 % down to 1 % of those with a degree. 69 % are afraid about sending weapons Ukraine, again only those with a degree are in majority (60 %) for helping Ukraine this way ►HU.
It is clear that Orbán did not change his position for a millimetre after Putin started his war against Ukraine. His interest is blaming the EU and undermining the sanctions until he cuts our bands with the West. Now he is already constructing his excuse, why the state finances are in such a bad shape. Ending the steal is nothing he would think about, instead he tries now bringing us even closer to Russia through propaganda. Jakab is right, we are standing in front of a choice for EU or for Russia.
Voila, the “Council of Judges” (OBT) has already submitted to Orban's "reorganization" by the afternoon. https://obt-jud.hu/sites/default/files/ulesek/Osszefoglalo_2024.11.20.pdf
Putin's spokesman, Peskov: "Freezing the conflict in Ukraine [along the existing frontlines] is UNACCEPTABLE for Russia, it is important for…
According to the 2015 contract, Russia would build the the Paks-2 atomic power plant for 12.5 billion euros, from start…
Current US situation: https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/commercial-backyard-flocks
It is also a choice between lie and truth between fake and fact …
The forint makes huge jumps to 385.6 for one euro.
https://www.finanzen.net/devisen/realtimekurs/euro-forint-kurs
Péter Jakab is very possibly not correct to assume Orban has any interest in becoming a vassal of Russia, but he is correct that could become the reality of the situation. I do not believe Orban wants to go down the path of Belarus’s leader Alexander Lukashenko who formally kept power but actually became a vassal of Russia. As one expert stated a silent invasion took place and de facto occupation of Belarus might be one of Putin’s biggest triumphs in the ongoing crisis. But that is the price Putin demands for becoming part of his own criminal enterprise.
Lukashenko attempted to increase trade and ties with the EU for several years and some distancing from Putin and Russia, but what came with it was the inevitable undermining of his own dictatorship. He retreated into the arms of Putin for his own survival. What is unclear to me is why Orban seems convinced somehow that Hungary can avoid the new cold war we are in right now, and why he does not grasp that Hungary is already targeted by strategic nuclear weapons by Russia.
Any exit from NATO and the EU will eventually require Hungary to allow Putin to place some level of Russian military forces on Hungarian soil. Putin’s proposed treaty with the USA calls for Hungary to exclude NATO forces from it soil and become neutral, which is Putin’s version of the Salami tactics of Matyos Rakosi on the international stage.
Orban thinks he can avoid this by his balancing act magic, that is totally delusional. Just because the US Department of the Defense recently reestablished a deconfliction line with the Russian Ministry of Defense on March 1 for the purposes of preventing miscalculation, military incidents, and escalation does not mean the Russians will pick up the phone. The U.S. European Command, which is responsible for U.S. military operations in the region, will be in charge of the American side of the line. It is not a hot line linking Biden and Putin 24 hours seven days a week.
What it is, is a way to try and avoiding turning smaller military conflicts between US and Russian forces into larger combat. It is in my opinion an admission by the US that NATO states like Poland will be in the not too distant future be facing Russian forces on its border when US troops will be stationed very possibly on a more or less permanent basis. The new reality of the situation is Putin has forced a polarization where even Sweden and Finland are increasing military ties to NATO and seem very likely to join. Even Switzerland which didn’t join NATO, founded in 1949 — and instead has become part of NATO’s Partnership for Peace program, that allows it to build an “individual relationship” with NATO seems now to believe that defense of Europe is something they want to be a part of, we are really seeing a new era of international relations in Europe. Orban is the fool thinking Hungary and his own Mafia State can stand aside from all of this.
So last night I participated is an on line discussion of this paper https://www.jhuapl.edu/Content/documents/ARIS_LittleGreenMen.pdf among retired US Army officers, one of whom wrote the classified version of the paper. Our discussion centered on the Russian attempt to use that same strategy again in the current invasion of Ukraine and its obvious failure. It was a very interesting discussion of the Russian habit to repeat strategically what works over and over again until it does not. The discussion became very heated when several retired officers said the USA does that too and it happened in the Middle East. I think the paper itself is well worth Hungarians to contemplate.
How many Hungarian and US Army officers have heard of the Russian active measures?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Active_measures
All who know the history of the 1956 Revolution are aware of these activities of the Russians for sure. I have given copies of Charles Gati’s “Failed Illusions” book about 1956 to probably ten fellow retired officers over the years which discusses much of what took place. The on line discussion I mentioned included former Army officers who were part of Defense Attaché Offices (DAO) in Central European embassies. They know the score.
None the less many were surprised at the Russians failures in Kyiv and the fact that so many of the operatives were shot there before they could seize strategic points. The SPETSNAZ-GRU (military intelligence) were intercepted in their lightening fast attacks into the City. It appears obvious NATO, US, and Ukrainian military intelligence had penetrated the Russian operations and they implemented an effective strategy to eliminate the threat at least in Kyiv. In other cities in the south it may have worked better for the Russians.
I think the US NSA also may actually with the help of the many brilliant Ukrainian computer hackers been watching communications between Russian agents inside Kyiv and Moscow. The first day of the invasion it became obvious to one of the key operatives a former elected member of the Ukrainian parliament named Yevheniy Murayev and another pro-Russian Viktor Medvedchuk were effectively moved out of Kyiv as soon as the failure to pull off the coup against the elected Ukrainian government took place. Sergiy Slipchenko is a staff writer at the Kyiv Independent which has the best reporting in English on the war and moves attempted by the Russians has reported on this extensively.
The new Russian strategy for taking Kyiv is destroying it as the photo below shows. It is a photo of a 26-story residential building at 6A Lobanovskoho Street in Kyiv, getting hit by a Russian missile. Putin will kill and kill until he wins or forces the Ukrainians. This is now happening constantly.
If you read this article https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2022/03/putyin-nincsenek-baratsagtalan-szandekaink-a-szomszedjainkkal-szemben you will see Russian statements about supposed attacks by Ukrainians that force Russians to return fire into areas where the Ukraine Army will not allow civilians to leave. Orban’s Fidesz controlled paper allows these statements to appear without being challenged at all. In fact Magyar Nemzet even quoted a Russian Major General Igor Konasenkov as using the word “liberated” in reference to areas now occupied by the Russians with only this slight comment that it was the General’s words not Magyar Nemzet’s (az ő szóhasználatában „felszabadított”).
When I am watching Orbán I can see a man who has some difficulties exactly to say what fits the story he tells. Difficulties not to admit too much, difficulties not to say a word that could scare the people. But I don’t see a man who lost the touch with reality, but a man afraid of reality. BTW after yesterday watching Lavrov and later Putin I am not that sure that they are not trapped in the bubble they created around themselves and lost touch to reality. So concerning Orbán I am sure that he knows that he has the choice between keeping Hungary a part of the West, which means abiding at least some rules, or to become a vassal of Putin, which means blind faith in exchange of being rich – and remaining in power forever. No doubt Orbán is aware of the fate of Lukasenka, but obviously he is more afraid of the alternatives.
As far as I can judge, the Viktor really thinks he can sit out the war, and continue as before, as if nothing happened. If you read the complete interview in the Mandiner yesterday, you have to come to this conclusion.
https://mandiner.hu/cikk/20220303_interview_with_prime_minister_viktor_orban
This means he is out of reality.
Lukashenka certainly did not think that one day Russian troops would be in power in Belarus, and Orbán has only instincts.
That if we just need to hide silently behind a tree would the Russian bear make go away is the story Orbán tells us since a week. He is the master of easy messages and what it makes it worse they fit somehow to each other and proving that these stories are absurd lies takes some effort. But telling primitive things doesn’t necessarily mean that he is so primitive as well. Underestimating Orbán is a huge mistake, many of his victims along his political road did exactly that. When you regard the interview Orbán gave to Mandiner as Orbán’s genuine opinion it is just too obvious that the true believing sheep will do that as well. But instead he is a very strategic thinking person. You can see that how he builds the ideological stories slowly but steadily. His huge turns you only see when you compare for example what he said in 2008 when Putin waged war in Georgia and what he tells today, while his story of his “peace mission” last month fits completely into today’s tales.
I completely agree with not underestimating the Viktor, but sticking to the story of PAKS 2 for example is very unrealistic. Of course, he is waiting for a chance to put the blame on if the project fails.
In today’s radio “interview” he even said that the refugees are welcome to start up in Hungary, since we are a “work based” country.
This can only mean the refugees will only get a very short support from the regime, and if they did not build up a new existence in two months, they will have to work in the Viktor´s street cleaning projects or eat grass. “Arbeit macht frei” or “Jedem das Seine” as it used to be named in the old times.
Tomorrow 5 pm there will be a demonstration in front of the MTVA building in Bp. against the media propaganda.
This is a nice article about the daily practices in Viktorland.
https://telex.hu/direkt36/2022/03/04/kiszivargott-iratok-mutatjak-hogyan-diktalnak-orbanek-mti-hirugynokseg
Istvan, it must be very difficult to choose only one topic a day with so much madness happening here. But you are doing good, big compliments.
Your interpretation is correct, refugees have to sweep streets after 3 months, this has already been announced. Learning the language to be able to add value to our labour market is obviously neither required, nor wanted.
That Mandiner interview does indeed show Orban is in and out of the real world. For example when he discussed increasing military expenditures and developing the US model of linking it to our military industrial complex. Orban says: “The American strategy, however, has been based on the understanding that if you organise your military policy well, then military investments and developments will lead to economic development, and they can be transferred to the civilian economy; and if a feedback loop is created between the military industry and other segments of the economy, then ultimately this will mean economic and technological progress for everyone. This works well in America, where in the longer term military expenditure will also be economic in nature rather than purely military.”
Our military expenditures are vast in the USA our military budget is the largest portion of the discretionary United States federal budget allocated to the Department of Defense, or more broadly, the portion of the budget that goes to any military-related expenditures. President Biden’s defense budget request for fiscal year 2022 (FY2022) is $715 billion, up $10 billion, from FY2021’s $705 billion. The total FY2022 defense budget request, including the Department of Energy, is $753 billion, up $12 billion from FY2021’s budget request.
The feed back loop of the military development feeding industrial development does happen here, but so much of the very high tech stuff is secret and can not have any practical use for the civilian economy. Most of our expenditures are for rather mundane stuff, like my pension to be honest and free health care for old soldiers like me.
We spend vast amounts of money on nuclear weapons and are increasing those expenditures see https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57240. I am not a supporter of unilateral disarmament by the USA but we have to realize there is no good side to these expenditures. The Mandiner interview does show Orban is out of his depth in the current situation, and does not understand the change Putin’s madness has created. Thanks jan for linking that interview.
Another good example of Orbán contradiction.
After Green conversion, military technology is now the most promising market for European industry.
He is exteremely naive in not realizing the dormant potential of removing the mothballs that cover the abandoned Cold War efforts.
Orban maybe left with little choice if Putin becomes a next door neighbour.
“Little” but also simple choice.
Either way – He will have to pay at the exit.
I don’t think he is in a very comfortable place right now. It is difficult to know what his escape route might be. Maybe losing the elections in April might be for him the best outcome.
The dance between EU, NATO on one hand and Putin on the other has taken on a different dimension. At its extreme there is the prospect of military confrontation with Russia. In my view this will be only a matter of time. If he refuses to support NATO he will remain defenceless. If he supports NATO he becomes a frontline state. I am glad I don’t live in Hungary. I wish those who do all the best.
Orbán told if we don’t hide behind a tree Putin will not remain next to that door. Since all the others who don’t hide behind trees, but speak out loud STOP will be attacked. But those who are not hiding are member of the same alliance we are. So if Putin attacks one…. The only choice is showing unity instead of fear.
A nice quote of MZP in this context:
Orbán would even ask Putin for permission to protect Hungarians from Russian aggression.
I don’t think he is in a very comfortable place right now. It is difficult to know what his escape route might be. Maybe losing the elections in April might be for him the best outcome.
The dance between EU, NATO on one hand and Putin on the other has taken on a different dimension. At its extreme there is the prospect of military confrontation with Russia. In my view this will be only a matter of time. If he refuses to support NATO he will remain defenceless. If he supports NATO he becomes a frontline state. I am glad I don’t live in Hungary. I wish those who do all the best.
Reuters ran this story a short while ago https://news.yahoo.com/foreign-minister-accuses-russian-soldiers-121057365.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall those Hungarians that have read Krisztian Ungvary’s writings on the use of rape by Stalin’s troops in Budapest after the Soviets won the city are no doubt not surprised in the least this could happen.
Map: military situation at 8 AM GMT on March 4, 2022.
Link
Edit: added link
Yes your map tappanch shows very clearly that one theory discussed at the start of the invasion in the western media that Putin was only invading up to the Dnieper river was nonsense. Because the Dnieper basically slices Ukraine into two parts — east and west — as it flows roughly north to south connecting the capital, Kiev, to the Black Sea. Hungary will have Russians on its doorstep assuming no deal is worked out with Zelensky for a cease fire and a safe haven near the NATO borders.
Putin may be mad, but he knows how such a left over Ukrainian entity could be used to carry on a protracted war by Zelensky. I can’t believe he would allow that possibility. So any protracted war by Ukrainians will have to come from Poland and Romania. I am also sure Putin will threaten both countries with nuclear weapons. Indeed there could even be SPETSNAZ-GRU attacks into Hungary itself even if Hungary does not allow the Ukrainians in exile to carry out operations out of Hungary
I believe the US military planners are assuming that risk in their plans for a protracted war against the Russian occupation of Ukraine. We are entering dangerous times indeed, but the time frame for this to play out may be relatively long..
The number of refugees from Ukraine, as of noon March 4.
Hungarian election:
Almost 50 thousand mail-in voters have disappeared from the roster !
(will they reappear as voters with Hungarian addresses, i.e. two-ballot voters ?)
March 1 vs March 4
A levélben szavazásra jogosultak száma:
A: 444 371 vs 399 332
B: 443 623 vs 446 217
C: 443 595 vs 446 189
A: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2022/valasztasi-informaciok/valasztopolgarok-szama, 9 PM
B: https://www.valasztas.hu/valasztopolgarok-szama-valasztastipusonkent
C: https://www.valasztas.hu/kulhoni-magyar-allampolgarok-valasztasi-regisztracioja
March 4 , reported at 7:54 PM
Foreign minister Szijjártó in Brussels:140 thousand refugees has arrived from Ukraine
100 thousand ethnic Ukrainians,
22 thousand ethnic Hungarians
18 students from outside Europe.
https://444.hu/2022/03/03/elkezdodott-az-ukrajna-elleni-invazio-masodik-hete
There could be no more than 15 thousand eligible voters among the 22 thousand ethnic Hungarians. (and some of them first have to receive Hungarian citizenship!!)
Eligible voters with Hungarian address:
can vote in home precinct + can vote in another precinct in Hungary + can vote abroad
March 1 vs March 4
A:
7 717 824+31 955+23 494 = 7 773 273
vs
7 706 536+38 194+26 567 = 7 771 297
B:
7 764 961
vs
7 763 955
Eligible voters with Hungarian address:
B:
2018.01.11: 7 946 127
2018.03.03: 7 939 286
2022.01.11: 7 775 435
2022.03.04: 7 763 955
Eligible (mail-in) voters with no Hungarian address and
with notification address in countries that forbid dual citizenship:
(Ukraine + Slovakia + Austria):
2021
March 21: 22 986
2022
January 11: 22 912
March 1: 23 064
March 4: 23 072
with e-mail notification address:
2021
March 21: 127 627
2022
January 11: 134 003
March 1: 142 756
March 4: 144 025
with Romanian notification address:
2021
March 21: 175 813
2022
January 11: 183 971
March 1: 190 965
March 4: 192 061
with Serbian notification address:
2021
March 21: 62 382
2022
January 11: 66 327
March 1: 67 719
March 4: 67 802
I don’t think he is in a very comfortable place right now. It is difficult to know what his escape route might be. Maybe losing the elections in April might be for him the best outcome.
The dance between EU, NATO on one hand and Putin on the other has taken on a different dimension. At its extreme there is the prospect of military confrontation with Russia. In my view this will be only a matter of time. If he refuses to support NATO he will remain defenceless. If he supports NATO he becomes a frontline state. I am glad I don’t live in Hungary. I wish those who do all the best.
President Zelensky’s late evening address on March 4:
Today, NATO again refused to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine, which is being bombed by Russian troops.
“We believe that NATO countries themselves have created a narrative that the closure of the skies over Ukraine will provoke Russia’s direct aggression against NATO. This is self-hypnosis of those who are weak, insecure, although they can have weapons many times stronger than ours”
“All the Alliance has managed to do so far is to pass 50 tons of diesel fuel to Ukraine through its procurement system. Probably so that we can burn the Budapest Memorandum so that it burns better.”
https://news.liga.net/ua/politics/news/zelenskiy-ob-otkaze-nato-zakryt-nebo-slabost-i-neuverennost-no-u-ukrainy-est-druzya
This Alkazeera beats Orban without mercy and correctly so. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/4/ukraine-war-orban-struggling-maintain-putin-balancing-act
An Antonov An-124 (Ukrainian registration UR-82072) from Tekirdag Corlu Airport, Turkey (known for its Bayraktar TB2 delivery flights) is currently landing at Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport in Poland, the likely military hub for Ukraine.