Well I don’t know if Kyiv is going to fall tomorrow, but it is obvious there is a lack of…
All the Same – All Different
With the devastating election Hungary is facing another 4 years of the same regime. We will see the same corruption going on, the theory of corrupt politicians “would be full at some point” is ridiculous. We just need to have a look at Hatvanpuszta. The Habsburgs weren’t exactly known for a decent lifestyle. The governor of Hungary, József nádor, son of Emperor Leopold II, grandchild of Maria Theresa, built this manor. Now the man who rules over Hungary needs to build a 21st century’s comfort bearing castle on the ruins of that manor. An imperial castle for a PM who earned 2020 officially 2 610 750 Ft (roughly 7 000 €) gross monthly. In Hungary definitely a very well paid job, but the estimated renovation costs exceed several 100 years earnings. I am afraid we have to face an acceleration of theft, in the “best” case a better story to cover it will be invented.
Already in December I reported that we have to face austerity ►EN. Cuts effected for example health care, but not the financial presents for voters or state spending on FIDESZ campaigning. In a press conference the OECD observation mission stated a few impressions yesterday, the detailed report will follow. The legal conditions would be acceptable, the voting itself was well organised, and happened peacefully. But here ended the positive. The mixing of messages of state, government, and party was definitely unfair, there were critics about voting secrets, abuse of the war for the elections. The voters were hardly able to inform themselves in unbiased media. The voting was not fitting international standards. Not surprising, but a testimony of the miserable condition of the remains of our former democracy.
After this “successful spending” of our taxes for FIDESZ propaganda and vote buying Hungary is broke. Ákos Péter Bod wrote in Portfolio ► “economic, social and foreign policy cannot be continued.” He pointed out that it doesn’t matter who will be in charge, radical changes will be needed. “It is not a matter of some opposition setting or subjective judgement, as the World Bank’s WGI indicators, WEF indicators and other internationally applied benchmarks give a fairly realistic picture of a country. Unfortunately the image is in our case not positive.” We are facing the economic disadvantage caused by 2 years of pandemic, we were even hit harder than other countries by structural problems and a missed digitalisation. “This will have direct budgetary consequences. In the future, much more resources need to be channelled into education. It is necessary, that is, not simply a matter of political preference in this area, to increase budget spending…. Similarly, a strong expansion of health care budget funding is not a matter of party politics, but an imperative.”
He shows how badly the costs of financing the state debt developed, while Hungary’s rating remains poor, in fact it went poorer during the Orbán rule and just recently turned again up (!) to the level of 2009 – 2010. Since 2011 Bulgaria took over, the Czech Republic since 2009 developed positively, Poland remained pretty much on the same level the last 15 years. Except Croatia, which had its own crisis, all countries in our region remained more stable and are on a comparable or better level than 2008, just Hungary missed the chances of the 2010s. “It is clear that in the favourable global economic environment between 2010 and the end of 2019, with extremely low international interest rates, favourable international exchange rates and the inflow of EU transfers, the macroeconomic conditions for Euro introduction could have been met without much effort. But in any case, the period would have been suitable for balancing the state budget without sacrificing growth.” In short: We had a decade of missed chances we will have to pay for now.
To increase trouble the EU commissioner for economic affairs Johannes Hahn (ÖVP – EPP) declared in an interview with the Tiroler Tageszeitung ►DE that the EU commission is actually working on measures against Hungary based on the rule of law mechanism. The war would not have any influence on this, he reminded to the fact that Poland is shortened on payments regarding the fine imposed by the ECJ and the unchanged situation that Hungary is not getting anything from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (corona funds.)
Economy in trouble, broken state finances, and further cuts from the EU. Can it become worse? Yes. Ákos Hadházy announced that there will be conditions for the opposition to take seat in parliament ►HU. He declared not to play the role of the opposition like in Russia as a fig leave instead of fulfilling a democratic function. He put clear demands what Orbán has to agree with, otherwise he would face a parliament without democratic parties. These demands are
- Free access of MPs to public institutions.
- A minority of representatives can initiate a parliamentary committee of inquiry.
- And public media lead by a consensual chosen person.
I am afraid that Orbán will not grant these desires, although number 1 is in theory law in Hungary and all are very democratic. Perhaps although isn’t the good word, perhaps because is fitting better.
And the forecast that many want to leave the country seems to become true. Google saw jumping numbers of questions for emigration and finding work abroad ►HU. Zsolt Osváth, who was creating space for interviews with the opposition on internet, since TV was largely inaccessible for them except exactly 5 minutes on state TV and once in a while an interview on ATV, ended his public presence and will emigrate ►HU. Osváth said: “We plan our stay abroad with disgust and malaise. But there has to be a plan B.”
Orbán’s desire to make a fascist zoo from Hungary came closer to reality, whomever wants to stay here will have to pay the price.
Voila, the “Council of Judges” (OBT) has already submitted to Orban's "reorganization" by the afternoon. https://obt-jud.hu/sites/default/files/ulesek/Osszefoglalo_2024.11.20.pdf
Putin's spokesman, Peskov: "Freezing the conflict in Ukraine [along the existing frontlines] is UNACCEPTABLE for Russia, it is important for…
According to the 2015 contract, Russia would build the the Paks-2 atomic power plant for 12.5 billion euros, from start…
Current US situation: https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/commercial-backyard-flocks
Not the same regime actually, we will get Orban on steroids now.
Orban has a very strong supermajority (which is a euphemism: in fact he has full, unbridled power domestically just like Putin has), and Mi Hazánk will support him too.
There is no way for Orban to retreat (he never does anyway), instead this is an opportunity fort him to entrench himself, his ideology, his community even further – but this time more mercilesssly, more strategically. He will be harder, tougher, more corrupt.
Power is for wielding it (not waver like MSZP/SZDSZ did between 1994-1998), and Orban will wield it.
Don’t count on any coming recession either, autocrats are smart enough and will control the population and blame anything negative on the opposition (controlled by the LBGT-Soros conspiracy or whatever it will be). If the propaganda is good, people will choose the extreme right, no the left-wing (just like they did in the 1930-1940s).
We haven’t seen the bottom yet for sure, Orban is still hungry as ever, he’s still in growth phase.
The opposition is obliterated outside Budapest, and with Gyurcsany-Dobrev we will be exactly here in 2026 again, and then in 2030 too. Gyurcsany is a selfish idiot, who is causing unfathamble damage to the opposition by remaining with his family in politics.
The regime is carrying out the Kremlin style active measures against its own nation.
This regime is trying to be in opposition to the majority of the local populations.
Gyurcsany should have retired 12 years ago. He has done and continues to do incalculable harm. The strange thing is he just does not get it. His presence in politics is a toxic weapon in Orban’s hands.
Gyurcsány was not elected from what I can see. Was he even running?
He will enter parliament along the list, he didn’t participate in the primaries, so he wasn’t district candidate (BTW Orbán run twice in a district and lost, 1990 and 1994)
However, may I remind that Dobrev run for PM and got a plurality of votes in the 1st round of the primaries? As much as Gyurcsány bashing is a hobby of Orbán, so much they have supporters as well.
There remain 2 unanswered questions: How many votes are lost because Gyurcsány and how many a won because of Gyurcsány. No question is that Orbán would have used the mini Feri campaign as well if Gyurcsány wouldn’t have been on the list. As the Soros myth this will be run forever.
Dobrev won in the primaries a lot of support but we know now that this is not representative of real support.
See for example Bernadett Szél, she won with an extremely high number of supporters in the primaries – yet she failed in 2022 significantly more than she did in 2018.
A lot of voters were lost because of Gyurcsany because former Jobbik voters prefer Orban vastly over the “communist”.
Or the “communist” Márki-Zay. Don’t forget that everyone not voting for FIDESZ is “communist”
Portraying MZP as left-wing is a joke but that doesn’t matter since the brainless Fidesz voters bought it.
Marty, the question is not the recession coming. The questions are the following: Are the people stupid enough to believe every lie? And will the austerity harm the people that much that they will turn against the regime?
I said so before as others said so before: With Orbán this is going worse only. Those with a brain prepare to leave already.
People are not stupid, they just don’t care about politics. So they don’t actively read about and contemplate political issues. And the opposition is unable to talk to these fundamentally uneducated, apolitical, simple people. Orban and Trump can.
Austerity is an opportunity for the opposition but Orban will be smarter than Bajnai (and the parties behind him).
The (i) crisis will be anyway smaller and (ii) Orban will handle it much smarter and so I don’t think we will have too many upset people. Orban knows he will have to “save voters” by some price cap or bail out and he will. Plus he will blame everything on the “liberals”.
So while a crisis in an opportunity, don’t bet on people suddenly losing religion and flock to the commies, liberals, jews, Brusselites – at most Mi Hazánk.
Expect a coalition between Fidesz and Mi Hazánk in 2026 or 2030, but not the opposition gaining power.
Oh, they are stupid! Who believes in the “war parties” story is stupid. It is not about education, because by education you could learn to listen to Brussels politicians own words. MZP spoke Hungarian and not even a too complicated language one couldn’t follow. But people know when the part of the month they run out of money get longer and longer. A crisis of such an extent ended more often in hunger riots than you might imagine.
I think this is just arguing about words. Blaming things on ‘stupidity’ really prevents us from seeing the reality.
The situation is that people are smart but are uneducated and have simple lives.
Most people don’t care about politics and foreign affairs and current affairs at all. Period.
They just don’t, they care about their neighbor’s impending wedding or the weekend BBQ party but don’t want to deal with ‘boring stuff’.
They want simple lives.
This means they are vulnerable to manipulation because they would not at the own initiative seek the truth, critically analyze competing narratives etc.
But you can’t blame them. The voters are a given, you can’t give up on them. Without embracing them, they will never vote for you.
It’s outrageous how the majority of the Hungarians now blame Ukraine for it’s own suffering and praise Russia etc.
But fascism is a complex phenomenon, the Germans were not ‘stupid’ either, it’s a simplistic and misleading term.
The masses participated in a grand project which is in Hungary the Fidesz machine which encompesses all facets of life now in Hungary. I think this clearly anti-humanist pro-Russian ideology by Orban is fascist but you cannot say that it is successful because people are stupid. Individually, most of them want something good – unfortunately together this adds up to a fascist state structure and society. However, blaming them will surely not help the situation.
And still they are stupid. Who is able to see, but doesn’t want to is stupid. Who doesn’t want to be involved in politics and votes for FIDESZ is especially stupid, since acting against his own ideas. One needs to be smart to understand that it is impossible to hide from politics, political decisions will determin the lives, if one wants or not. You want your BBQ? So your meat will be more expensive. Much more. People even know who earns his money with pigs. They know the political connections. And they vote FIDESZ? Stupid! Had Hungarians 2022 the possibility to be informed? Yes! Germans in 1938? Extremely limited compared to our situation today! Those days it was possible to create a single fake reality reaching nearly everybody. Today it is way more difficult and we have actually 2 realities in Hungary. The real one and the alternative created by the regime and its media. People are so positive about the EU and so negative with their experiences regarding Russia. It is opportunism or closing eyes regarding the reality, both is stupid.
No, feelings are complex.
The polls about the EU etc. are actually stupid because they give a few options to choose from — but any relationship with the EU or Russia are extremely complex.
Some aspects they like, some they hate, some they laugh about, some they admire, some they envy, some they are terrified of etc.
Orban can manipulate the masses successfully, because he understands that people’s feelings are complex and can easily hold contradictory views about anything.
People are not logical (logically consistent) or rational.
Try to get that finally, but this seems also hard for you to get.
As to the media situation, the internet can easily close people into their own bubbles. That’s just how the logic of internet and on-demand media works. Its really how Facebook or Google operates, the point is not truth but traffic, addiction to the particular social network, and confirmation of existing worldviews (because it feels so good). People fall into this trap and can’t escape.
You really have no clue! Facebook is no newspaper, who uses it for more than getting opinions is an idiot! No single Hungarian loves getting robbed (even those who like to rob are a tiny minority!) All that is senseless talk! Orbán does not play with the complexity of people, but 1st planted and now cultivates a desire to get primitive messages. These people want things being solved on their behalf instead of doing an effort themselves. Who is that lazy to accept the news on regime TV and doesn’t mind contradicting messages. Not for nothing he lost the rich Buda hills and got up to 100 % in the poorest villages. It isn’t directly connected to education, but to doing something instead of waiting someone else does something. Of course those people tend to follow education as well. Result but not reason. Believing in the central and towards the end of the campaign only message of the regime that MZP wants the war is a question of stupidity! Nobody was forced to believe such a lie, this is not Russia and nobody goes to prison for saying that Putin invaded Ukraine to enlarge by this war his power. It is no problem at all to escape this trap, even simple minds could do so. If they want to do the effort to ask: Really?
I don’t think we can label everyone who voted for Fidesz stupid, people vote for different reasons, some out of self-interest, some based on what they are told by friends/ relatives/ propaganda and some are probably generally spooked by the war in Ukraine and for some reason feel that they know what they are getting with Orbán in an uncertain environment. I don’t agree that they all lead simple lives, but people don’t always spend much time looking into the issues, some are too busy for that, or just “not interested in politics”, and then of course some of us are stupid as well!
As Marty says, the opposition has to find some way of connecting with voters and make them believe that they really care about making their lives better, which is not easy in the current situation and after so many years of constant propaganda and “dumbing down”
My question was “Are the people stupid enough to believe every lie?” I don’t doubt a second that there are FIDESZ voters completely aware what they are voting for, but expect that they have advantages by doing so. Next question would be whether they aren’t more dangerous than the stupid ones. Marty essentially answered that it wouldn’t be stupid to believe every lie. But it is. Marty suggest doing the impossible. To get people voting on the opposition who don’t want to have anything to do with politics with political messages that are unpolitical and of course need to top the propaganda lies.
I don’t always appreciate Marty’s negativity and I think his arguments are stronger when he talks about Hungary than when he tries to project Hungarian politics onto the international stage and jumps to incorrect, simplified conclusions (in my opinion), but I think he’s right when he says this:
“But you can’t blame them. The voters are a given, you can’t give up on them. Without embracing them, they will never vote for you.”
In this case, stupidity or not is irrelevant…
The words you quoted are correct, just they don’t fit into the initial question: What will they do when they are hit by hard measures needed through Orbán’s policies. Don’t forget even his own minister of finance said that this will be necessary! My approach was the analysis of the consequences when exactly the people voting for Orbán are getting poorer and poorer. His idea is that Orbán will win by throwing people into the dirt. And I say although stupid enough allowing him to this very point, there will be a point where this won’t work any more. Before one wants to include people one needs to understand their situation. Here Marty completely lacks reality. Just take his favourite BBQ, when people can’t afford meat. When Orbán slaughters a pig for getting more popular Marty tells how great this is. In fact people think, “we can’t do that!” If someone wants to change he has to understand the these facts before. In fact Marty is for a pretty large part believing the regime propaganda himself, since he mirrors the stereotypes used.
People are stupid. They might not care about politics but if they are too blind to see the reality of what is happening to their country, it’s their fault. The state of healthcare or education alone is enough for anyone to see something is wrong. HU has one of the highest Covid death rate in the world. Hungarians jokingly say it’s better to stay out of hospitals as you will catch another disease and die if you go. You have to bring your own medicine to get treated. WTF? These people are so self-centred they can’t even see how far they are lagging behind the rest of Europe. It’s hard to feel sorry for them.
Voters are not rational.
Stupidity is a term that makes sense only in a paradigm which is based on rational acting, rational decisions, rational argumentation etc.
Voting and politics are based on emotions, hatred, hope, aspiration, terror, envy, dreaming, love, adoration etc.
You can’t say that an observant Muslim or Catholic is stupid. This is not the right term for sure (and its offensive too).
Politics is about identity and quasi-religious participation in the “church”.
Some people attend the mass every day, some only on Sundays, some never but sill many celebrate Christmas and Easter.
They are all part of the broader Christian community.
Orban successfully created this mean, malicious church of his – but this has nothing to do with stupidity on the part of his believers.
You’re right with your observation, just the “it’s better to stay out of hospitals as you will catch another disease and die if you go” statement is no joke, it is said seriously!
Zelensky about Orban:
A victory in the parliamentary elections will not protect Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban from the fact that soon “he will have to choose between Russia and the other world.” This was stated by President Volodymyr Zelensky during a conversation with representatives of the Ukrainian media.
The journalist asked what to do about the fact that pro-Russian forces are in power in Serbia and Hungary (which, as Zelensky interrupted him, “support Russia – they really are”), and international institutions are powerless against the aggressor.
The head of state smiled and said that “if there was an opportunity, I would tell you what to do with it, but we do not have such powers.”
“What can he [Orban] do? Block accession to NATO? He already blocked it, but it depends not only on him. I would even say that not everything depended on him with respect to NATO,” he stressed and said that he had there is practically no relationship with Orban.
The president several times separated Orban’s response from the Hungarian people, who, he said, support Ukraine and its aspirations.
https://news.liga.net/ua/politics/news/orban-mojet-prodoljat-zaigryvat-s-rossiey-no-dolgo-eto-ne-budet-zelenskiy
The following two-ballot votes are still not counted:
Domestic absentee ballots: about 126,041 = about 80% * 157,551
106 sequestered precincts: 49,408 = 70.36% * 70,218
Embassy absentee votes: 57,623 = 88.00% * 65,480
Total votes to be counted on April 9: about 233,072.
Valid counted party votes: 5,102,943
Votes to be counted on April 9: about 233,000
Valid votes for parties (counted by April 5)
outside Budapest:
Fidesz + MiHazank = 62.40%
Opposition + Two-tailed dog = 35.75%
in Budapest:
Fidesz + MiHazank = 45.63%
Opposition + Two-tailed dog = 52.55%
Details:
outside Budapest: 4,213,379 valid party votes
Fidesz: (55.74%)
Opposition: (32.82%)
MiHazank: ( 6.66%)
Two-tailed dog: ( 2.93%)
Porn Party: ( 1.06%)
Anti-Vax: ( 0.78%)
in Budapest: 889,564 valid party votes
Opposition: (47.41%)
Fidesz: (41.44%)
Two-tailed dog: (5.14%)
MiHazank: (4.19%)
Porn Party: ( 1.29%)
Anti-Vax: ( 0.54%)
tappanch, counting Two-tailed Dog to the opposition is fundamentally wrong and misleading.
While it is true they are not Fidesz voters, they are not opposition voters either.
It is obvious that since it’s a separate party (A) its voters do not support the individual opposition candidates in the 106 districts, and (B) since it did not cross the 5% threshold, it cannot support the opposition in the Parliament either.
On the other hand adding Fidesz and Mi Hazánk makes sense since Mi Hazánk got into the Parliament after all and its reresentatoves did in fact vote with Fidesz before (when they were a splinter group from Jobbik).
Since Mi Hazánk seems to be a result of former Jobbik voters who didn’t want to replace Fidesz by voting for the united opposition, we can say that Mi Hazánk voters prefer Fidesz over the opposition (since their primary concern wasn’t the defeat of Fidesz, with whom Mi Hazánk politicians would vote anyway in crucial conservative matters).
So, basically what we can say is that outside Budapest Fidesz has 55.7% and 6.66% as quasi-reserves, while the opposition had less than 33%.
Obviously, the opposition would have to have close to 50% (actually more because of the gerrymender) to win in the 88 rural districts which means that it would have to flip on average 17/56 that is 30% (in many cases more) of Fidesz voters (as Mi Hazánk voters will continue to support Mi Hazánk since it cannot be unpopular as it will not be blamed for failures and they already showed that they won’t vote for the democratic opposition), who have not wavered a bit since 2002. In fact in many places Fidesz actually increased both the number of its voters and the percentage by which it defeated the opposition candidates.
This I think is simply impossible.
Proposing to Békéscsaba and Sopron voters Gyurcsany (a coalition including Gyurcsany who has consistently been the most derided politician in the last 15 years) again is just insanity, but Gyurcsany will be there, rejected again.
Hungary is like a one party state in the US, the demography is given, the election system is given, and so the minority simply cannot ever win.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/04/the-guardian-view-on-hungarys-election-a-dismal-day-for-democracy
Zsuzsanna Slelenyi:
https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/86809
She is right.
Also Le Pen (who received a loan from MKB bank, owned by Orban’s clan) is coming up in the polls.
The right-wing coalition of paleo-conservative politicians is being built and is getting stronger as we speak.
She is not right.
“Orbán will continue building the alliance of far-right parties in Europe.”
Now where did that happen since they left the EPP? And please tell me what progress he made.
Uschi is working on the rule of law, contradicting your predictions. Now you have one prediction left; that Scholz will make a pact with the Viktor
https://444.hu/2022/04/05/az-europai-bizottsag-elinditotta-a-jogallamisagi-eljarast-magyarorszag-ellen
Pessimism if fine, but it is like religion keep it to yourself.
My prediction is, that the rural people will recognize a crisis, and if the Viktor continues this way it will be a BIG one. That is my prediction.
He would like to do so, but he failed. His allies will be tiny parties on the extreme right, but the main players definitely spilt away from Orbán over Putin. Le Pen has destroyed her wonderful flyers she made with Orbán’s credit, because she proudly posed with Putin in it….
It wasn’t too successful so far but like Le Pen he will try and try and try.
Sooner or later far right parties will emerge again (he thanked for his Austrian, Spanish, and American friends who supported his campaign, the far right is rising in Portugal, Spain, Le Pen is coming up in polls etc.) and Orban will be there to manage them – as a kind of “elder statesman” of the far right.
Trumpists will rise again and so on.
The point is, Orban has all the time in the world and he won’t give up his dreams (he wants to destroy the EPP).
I hope you don’t think that the far right is out for ever?
There are 52 Russian-friendly countries today
(aerial traffic is restored by Russia today)
Hungary is not among them.
Europe: Bosnia, Serbia (flights to Belarus did not have to be restored),
Moldavia (!!),
Asia: China, Hong Kong, N Korea, Mongolia,
Turkey, Iraq, Afghanistan
Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Israel,
Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain,
Pakistan, India, Burma, Sri Lanka,
Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,
Islands: Fiji, Maldives, Seychelles, Mauritius,
entire North Africa, entire South Africa,
Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia
South America: Argentina, Brazil, Peru, Venezuela,
Central America: Jamaica, Costa Rica
https://t.me/rian_ru/157101
The only country on that list that surprises me is Moldova – I thought it was seen as Putin’s next potential target.
Or maybe they don’t have the capacity/ resources to enforce flight restrictions or are hoping to win favour from Putin?
Moldavia borders only 2 1/2 countries – Ukraine, Romania, and TransNistria.
So a Russian plane has to fly over Ukraine or Romania to reach Chișinău (Kis Jenő).
This Telex article https://telex.hu/valasztas-2022/2022/04/04/zavecz-kozvelemenykutatok-a-fidesz-sem-szamitott-ketharmadra discusses the failure of polling on the left to analyze the impact of the Fidesz PR strategy relating to the war in Ukraine had on the election results, not enough for Orban to removed but likely enough to allow Fidesz to retain the 2/3s majority in parliament.
This is from the article: “Tibor Závecz told RTL Híradó that no one expected two-thirds, the profession, the political scientists, but not even Fidesz itself. According to him, the key to the end result may be that pro-government communications about the war (they are a guarantee of peace, “let’s stay out of this”) convinced the insecure at the last minute to vote for Fidesz. In contrast, the content of the opposition slogan “Europe or Putin” was not as strong as that of Fidesz’s message. Závecz’s assessment is therefore that the researchers did not anticipate the impact of the war communication on insecure voters, which caused severe miscalculations.”
Here is what I find to be also interesting, I suspect, based no polling data at all, some opposition leaning voters outside of Budapest were in agreement about Fidesz corruption, but were unnerved by MZP’s off the cuff comments about Hungary’s NATO commitment to enter combat if that was the overall position of NATO. I think what we call over here high information voters who were more informed about the US administration’s total opposition to combat in Ukraine understood MZP’s comment was in many ways silly. But low information voters leaning to the opposition were alarmed and just avoided voting because they were rightly disgusted by Fidesz corruption yet fearful of war. I think the Fidesz media strategy read the sentiment very well.
As I have stated before I think there is almost a cultural fear of Russian barbarism going back at least to 1956, but likely back to the Battle of Budapest during WWII. Kadar from my own reading of his speeches, of which I have a three volume collection (as did Eva by the way) played on this fear by very subliminal messaging relating to the horrors of war. It was framed in terms of imperialism targeting the West but it seemed to also apply to Russia Kadar’s fraternal communist nation. Orban was raised on that generational messaging and played a similar game. Many supposedly anti-communist Hungarians here in the USA would admit Kadar was very clever in working around the edges of Russian power, mert akár pislogás nélkül is megölhetnek.
I’m sure you’re right about the impact of the war rhetoric, although in Márki-Zay’s defence, he was really only saying what a loyal NATO ally should say (maybe he was unwise to make the comment before Russia invaded and before he saw NATO’s response).
I think that in uncertain times the principle of “better the devil you know” had an effect and despite the help given by many Hungarian civilians to Ukrainians fleeing here, I have also come across a strong pro-Russian, anti-Ukrainian (anti-US or anti-NATO) attitude from some of my acquaintances.
The right wing here (like elsewhere I suppose) are very keen on conspiracy theories and the story I heard was that this “provocation” by the US was an attempt to sell their more expensive, poorer quality gas supplies to Hungary and Europe. I also heard comments like “America doesn’t tolerate enemies on its borders, just look at Cuba”… admittedly this was from a pro-Russian (regime) acquaintance of mine
Oh one of my pro-Fidesz cousins from Esztergom says it was the US military industrial complex that is driving the destruction of Ukraine. I will give him credit for at least being aware of the Dow Jones U.S. Select Aerospace & Defense Index (DJSASDT) data, and he was correct that those of us with investments in this sector have been doing well.
I told him isn’t it possible that the Russian Federation also has a massive defense industry and if you are going to argue with that type of logic doesn’t that also apply to Russia? Just for the record Russia is the world’s second-largest arms exporter, behind the United States. Russia exports arms to over 45 countries and has accounted for around 20% of global arms sales since 2016.
Killing people in mass is an international industry knowing really no boundaries. I visited in peaceful Austria the incredibly advanced Glock factory and later it’s sister US production factory in Smyrna Georgia owned by GLOCK GmbH. When Glock created the US manufacturing facility, they wanted to replicate the Austrian operations, so they did. Not kind of, but exactly. Everything is the same, from the rather common-looking parts bins to the CNC, forging, and injection molding machines and even the shipping boxes.
Glock is at the cutting edge of manufacturing robots and Gaston Glock now 92 years still owns the company and is an engineer who designed the factory that makes superb handguns being used by the thousands in the Ukraine.
As far fetched as it seems, renewed gossip-propaganda on social media, referring to a conspiracy theory about a “Secret Western pharmaceutical program, clandestinely administering sex-hormone manipulating treatments to infants and toddlers”, addressing the anti-vax segment and undecided female voters, also had a positive effect for Fidesz.
As usual this contribution is spot on.I grew up in the shadow of Nazi and Soviet barbarity until I got out. What I do not understand is why the self evident fact of Russia as an evil power has been ignored and continues to be ignored. Assuming that at some point this war comes to an end with the likely outcome that American weapons and Ukrainian men will force Putin to retreat. How is the world going to treat Russia? Probably as a place where they can sell the stuff they make. The process will start again. Unfortunately, my view is that Russia must be driven back to the Stone Age which is where it belongs.
Here’s some news for you Bobby – You are not special in respect to European history and politics, unless you were the Emperor of aincient China..
“Back to the stone age”? – With what/whom? And for the benefit of whom?
I take it that old fashioned defeat/draw and settlement are out of your equation.
Well, there was a clear choice as I see it, Europe or Putin.
The Hungarians voted for Putin. The content was very strong, and the Hungarian people will have to live with it. At least that slogan was not a lie (:
No analysis of which slogan was strong is necessary. If 60% votes fascists, knowing it, but don´t care, a people is lost.
Most Hungarians simply voted for the Hungary they believe in. It’s not a Western oriented state of mind.
That is what it shows indeed.
Hungary Today reports on who congratulated – reads like a list of autocra … And they want the Balkan to join the EU, hoping to get a right wing majority?
But of course they don’t want Ukraine to get into the EU.
Strange, isn’t it?
Or not….
Allowing Serbia in the EU would be a disastrous mistake. I noticed Charles Michel, president of the Council of the EU, congratulated Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić on Twitter for his victory last Sunday but not Orbán – although I understand he did congratulate OV, just not publicly.
Hungary-Ukraine relations don’t seem to be getting any better, now our Foreign Minister is trying to give the Ukrainian ambassador a lesson
https://telex.hu/english/2022/04/06/szijjarto-summons-ukraines-ambassador
God help Hungary if it ever finds itself in a similar situation to Ukraine…
60% chose Putin, so no worries.
This is a beautiful interview; Putin must have the Viktor by the balls it seems.
https://ria.ru/20220405/stanislavov-1781837933.html?fbclid=IwAR1CYdyNUf2N18wN74SBjoczkLKa98uW8ahnX7wg5KGby3NCPPsTLVSooq8
Google translate works fine.
If you don´t want to open a Russian link:
https://hang.hu/belfold/budapesti-orosz-nagykovet-nincs-okunk-arra-hogy-ne-bizzunk-a-magyar-kormanyban-139183